DJI
The NASDAQ FractalWhile we are talking about the Bitcoin fractal / logistic curve, I decided to analyze the second bubbly candidate, NDQ/NDX.
The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000 part is highly correlated to the 2015-2021 price action. This is the bubble part of the two growths.
The overlapping part is quite satisfactory in the way it moves together. Considering the simplistic method of analysis I did.
We should scale things down since growth follows a fibonacci movement, not a linear one. Nature forces each growth to be some golden ratio smaller than the previous one. Either we like it or not...
I drew a retracement from the 2000 peak to the 1994 beginning, and moved it to 2015 as a start.
The bubble part of the 2015-2021 growth is significantly lower when compared to the 1994-2000 growth. Do note that in both instances a 6 year period is analyzed. The decreased rate of change is apparent.
There are numerous comparisons one can make.
Again retracement is copied and moved, not rescaled in any way.
I always tried to find a peak in NDQ. It wasn't until I tried fitting the .com bubble to the today's bubble that everything made sense. The chart got completed on it's own. A theoretical peak in NDQ will be on the 1.618 ratio of the .com bubble. It is quite far from here but with this candle pattern it makes sense. I have basically copied the 1985-2022 period and pasted on 2006. As I said before, the chart is rescaled only on price. And would you like to know how much I ended up scaling the chart? By a factor of .618
Conclusion: NASDAQ has it in it's DNA. Periods of incredible gains and periods of painful losses. This year it significantly underperformed the other main indices.
For the near future, with so many new technologies coming, it wouldn't be extreme to witness another bubble after a painful drop. We are dependent on technology, so it's sector will gain.
Final note: Bubbles and their patterns can be incredible sometimes.
80 years apart, back then with pen and paper, in 2000 on computer screens. Yet the bubble peak is identical.
PS. It appears from the chart, in pure speculation that sometime in the future we will violate this important trendline. Perhaps in 2040's robots will overtake the world and we will abolish technology once and for all. Curiously, a while back I listened to a song titled 2042 by Active Member. It's in Greek so don't bother looking for it if you don't understand the language.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
DJI still bearishIn our view, DJI remains bearish .
What we can see on a chart is a potential deviation in a well-defined downtrend .
RSI looks weak and remains in a downtrend.
As we're bearish on other major idicies such as SPX:
We expect that DJI will continue going down.
Long-term targets and potential path for DJI are shown on the chart.
Good luck
DOW JONES Will it invalidate the 2022 bearish fractal?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been stuck within a Triangle pattern (dashed lines) since it hit and bounced on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 20 but has a clear rejection on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which is the short-term Resistance. At the same time we can also see that the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) has also resumed its old role as a Resistance, having kept the index below it form April 22 to November 10 earlier this year.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is now the pivot but technically in 2022 when it broke as Support, Dow kickstarted major sell-offs. Both on April 22 and August 28, the major sell-off were confirmed and Dow extended the selling to a new market (Lower) Low.
This is however the first time since December 20 2021, so basically a whole year, that the 1D MA200 is acting as a Support. At the same time, the RSI on the 1D time-frame is more similar to the May 20 and September 27 lows.
As a result we have technical proof to believe that as long as the 1D MA200 holds, Dow Jones has more probabilities to attempt a test on the 34300 former Resistance (August 16 High) and then move for the 34910 December 13 High. Closing above the 4H MA100 will confirm this move.
A closing below the 1D MA200 however has more chanced of testing the 31725 (Support 1) and 30100 (Support 2) levels successively.
Notice how proportional the Bottom-to-Top and Top-to-Bottom sequences have been since the February 24 Low. If the symmetry continues to hold and of course assuming Dow breaks below the 1D MA200, the next low should be around early February 2023.
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US30 US500 - Back down?Reversal here? Price returned to fill biggest imbalance on the 1HR. Bias is still bearish. Taking a short near the top. SL 50 points current top on 1M.
SQQQ Simple Chart AnalysisSQQQ - For those who don't have short play in your trading platform, you may actually consider this SQQQ to long. As long Nasdaq continue to fall, this chart will rise. Is a vice versa kind of chart.
- If Nasdaq fail to rebound strongly today at support, individual may consider this to long.
How to view the guidance via chart ( Refer back to pin message guidance if to trade )
Red Line = Support
Blue Line = Resistance
Light Blue = bullish/bearish pattern
Arrow = Double/Trip top/bottom
Red Chip = $$
Green Chip = XX
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33498.93, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is to form a triple top retail formation . Stop loss will be at 34243.87, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. I am looking to take profit at 32485.23, where the previous lows and liquidity lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SPX | Will this time be different?World on terror in 2001, world on Russia in 2022.
Sticky inflation, explosive dollar and a tech bubble.
And a housing crisis brewing? Not a recipe for success.
I don't understand why anyone would expect actual, long-term growth from this exact point.
The chart above shows something peculiar. We have bearishly tried to escape the ribbon and failed (for now?).
Also the recent peak occurred in the 1.272 extension of 2000 peak, to 2009 bottom. A brief blow-off top in Dec.21 killed any hope of further growth. We have tremendous resistance above us, are we up for the task? Do we have heaps of money or are we over-leveraged from the 2-year party we had?
Also look at this peculiar era. A linear channel that barely deviated from its course shaped the previous years. And now we lost all support. A long-term rising channel isn't very bullish for me. We have analyzed it with many many methods, that since the GFC we are experiencing RSI Divergence (RSI printing lower highs, price printing higher highs).
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS: I <3 HL2
BITCOIN has always started a rally when Dow did this.This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) against Bitcoin (BTCUSD) illustrated by the black trend-line. Every since September and the touch of its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), Dow has been rallying, having recovered more than 50% of the 2022 losses.
With regards to Bitcoin, perhaps the most important development is that Dow is rebounding after its 2M RSI bounced off the Support that is holding for more than 10 years (since 2011). This level has always started BTC's strong rally within Dow's Secular Macro Bull Cycle (SMBC). At the same time the LMACD made a Bullish Cross shortly after. Right now the indicator is close to making the first Bullish Cross since October 2020.
Is this time different?
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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US30- Bullish Channel?No rocket science methodology here. Potential bullish channel. I took longs at the bottom this morning. Will take profits at the top of channel. Will leave some running in case price breaks through and Santa decided to bring us that rally. Caution for reversal back down.. SL's in place. Good luck. Godspeed!
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DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33498.93, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 34243.87, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. I am looking to take profit at 32485.23, where the previous lows and liquidity lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Dow Jones Index retrace?In weekly chart, Index potentially stopped dropping when it was supported by the green band. It break out the downtrend line, should be the 1st step of principle of 123.
Index potential to have a retrace in weekly chart again, if it form the higher low in future, then it is the step 2 of principle 123.
Refer to daily chart, TD sequential 13 show the rebound could be almost exhaust, and the GDMM is at high risk position. If index drop below the low of TD13, the next support is approximate 32000.
Since there is no good chance to buy at this condition, better wait the result of US election patiently.
US30 DOW JONES DJI DAILY TF ANALYSISWe can see that price recently broke through the trend line, but immediately got rejected at 34746, which was around the resistance level from 21st April. Signifying that there's a strong bearish presence at that level.
Now price had retraced back to the trend line and upon touching it, we can see that the bullish momentum is not as strong as the bearish one we saw at 34746, signifying that the trend line might be too weak to act as support.
I have a bearish bias on the Dow, I think that the next movements of price will be either:
Scenario 1: Hug along the trend downwards, towards 31929 which was around 31st of May high, turning that resistance into support. 31929 is also at a 50% fib retracement level, which can act as a stronger level of support for bullish momentum.
Scenario 2: If price breaks below 31929, we might see price heading towards 29727, which was around the low of 17th June, which might act as a support level
Scenario 3: If price breaks below 29727, we might see it heading towards 28539, which was around the low of 3rd Oct, and 13th Oct, which might act as a strong support level
DOW JONES turned the 1W MA50 into Support?This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) on the 1W time-frame where we look into the current 1W (weekly) candle. As you see, the index managed to turn around the mid-week negative sentiment and closed the week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and in green. Even last week's heavily bearish candle closed above the 1W MA50. Those are early signs that the former Resistance level which rejected the uptrend on August 15 (red circle), may be turning gradually into a Support.
With the RSI within a Channel Up pattern, the current sequence bears similarities with the June - November 2020 fractal. As you see, that fractal also established the 1W MA50 as a Support (3 times), before making a Higher High on the trend-line and eventually breaking to a very aggressive 2021 rally to the All Time High.
As a result, as long as Dow manages to close above the 1W MA50, we will be expecting a Higher High near the 0.786 Fibonacci extension (35000). A closing below it though, should target the lower Fibonacci levels successively.
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Nasdaq 100 Analyze(12/16/2022)!!!Nasdaq was able to break the support line and then complete the pullback.
I expect Nasdaq will go down at least until the uptrend line and heavy resistance zone.
Nasdaq 100 Analyze, (NQ1!USD), Timeframe 1H⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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DJ30 - Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.DJ30 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 32824 (stop at 32600)
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 32824-33421. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 32821 from 32439 to 33439. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 33421 and 33779
Resistance: 33422 / 33779 / 334425
Support: 32824 / 32653 / 32439
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Using the VIX to buy S&P, NASDAQ and Dow Jones 📈📉🐂What is TVC:VIX ?
The VIX is a real-time volatility index created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). This index was the first benchmark to quantify market expectations regarding volatility. However, the index is forward-looking, which means that it only shows the implied volatility of the S&P 500 (SPX) over the next 30 days.
Since the VIX reaches its highest levels when the stock market is more unstable, the media communication tend to refer to the VIX as an indicator of fear and in the sense that the VIX is a measure of the market perception (particularly of concern) such a description is correct.
The implied volatility normally increases when markets present turbulence or the economy decays. Conversely, if the prices of stocks are rising and not changes seem likely substantial, the VIX tends to fall or stay stable at the bottom of your scale. In other words, there is a negative correlation between the VIX and the stock performance. For example, in November 2008, a As stock prices rise dipped, the VIX hit a high historical of 80.86. in the winter of 2013, when the value of the shares rose, the VIX held at about 12 points.
WHAT DOES THE VIX MEASURE?
The VIX measures the expectations of volatility of the capital market based on the option prices. Instead of measuring volatility “realized” or historical, the VIX projects volatility “implied” or expected—specifically from the 30s future days—by measuring changes in S&P 500 option prices.
Historically, when the VIX reaches 40 points or more, the S&P is at the end of its downward trend to make a range or rise, when the VIX reaches 40 points is when it could be said that we are already in recession and "when there is blood, it is because the sharks already attacked" possibly in 2023 we are facing a recession but it could end in a few months and in 2024 have a rise in the American indices as can be seen above.
REMEMBER "HISTORY DOESN'T REPEAT BUT IT RHYMES"
TVC:SPX
TVC:NDQ
TVC:DJI
Possibly the recession ends in the first half of 2023 when the FED lowers interest points to 0.25%