DJI
Asian Paints Long TermTechnical Analysis :
-- Strict Stop Loss = 3077
-- Target - 1 = 3387
-- Target - 2 = 3625
-- Target - 3 = 4232
-- Strong support at 2786.
-- Touching 55 EMA
Fundamental Analysis :
-- Current price is more than the intrinsic value
-- Maintaining a healthy dividend payout
-- CAGR: 10 years - 22%
-- Cash Flow is negative
-- ROCE : 27 %
As the PE ratio is a little high compared to the Median PE i.e 68.8. So keep on investing in a small amount
Divi's Laboratories Long Term Technical Analysis :
-- Strict Stop Loss = 3150
-- Risk : Reward = 1 : 3
-- Target - 1 = 4059
-- Target - 2 = 4597
-- Target - 3 = 4988
-- Strong support at 3039.
-- Re enter the trade at 3185
-- Touching 200 EMA
Fundamental Analysis :
-- Divi's Lab has a healthy ROE.
-- Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 17%
-- ROCE: Maintaining healthy ROCE of 31.64% (1 year), 28.31(3 years), and 26.9% over the past 5 years.
-- Healthy dividend payout
-- Debt-to-Equity: Divi''s Lab has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.00
-- CAGR: 10 years - 19%
-- Cash Flow: Positive cash flow over the last 5 years
-- P/E ratio: 10 years PE is close to the average PE. So Stock is not overvalued
HUL long term investmentTechnical Analysis :
-- Strong support at 2047
-- Strict Stop Loss = 2440
-- Risk : Reward = 1 : 3
-- Target = 3450
-- Golden crossover in Daily
-- Just crossed the trendline
-- For long-term investment please ignore the targets.
Fundamental Analysis :
-- The company has existed for more than 10 years
-- The company is virtually Debt-free
-- CAGR : 5 year - 17% & 10 year - 18%
-- Revenue, Profit Growth : Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 9–10 %
-- ROCE: Maintaining healthy ROCE of 38.22% (1 year), 90.51(3 years), and 95.95% over the past 5 years.
-- Cash Flow: Over the last 5 years, free cash flow growth has been 8.27%. Which is on the positive side.
-- P/E ratio: Stock is not overvalued as its near to its historical average
-- Maintaining a healthy Dividend
DOW JONES ready to rally! Inflation peaked on a 100 year line!The Dow Jones index (DJI) has been on an enormous rise since late September that even made a Higher High above the 2022 descending Resistance. With inflation being the main catalyst of this 2022 correction, it should come as no surprise that when it normalizes, the index can start seeing growth again.
Well on July the Inflation Rate (USIRYY) got rejected on its most important Resistance level, the Lower Highs trend-line that has been in place since May 1920! This 100 year old trend-line has had another 2 rejections on inflationary peaks (February 1947 and March 1980).
As this chart shows, every inflation drop from a Lower Highs peak was followed by a multi-year rally on Dow Jones, essentially a new expansion period. An exception parhaps was May 1920 when DJI continued to fall for another year, despite a massive correction on Inflation.
As a result, if this Inflation rejection is sustainable and is the start of a major correction, it is more likely to see the stock market rally and enter a new period of growth.
What do you think?
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DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible buy entry at 33240.22, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32485.23, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line and previous high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Dow has finished the rebound and will turn down side againAfter the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week, the market take the message that Fed is going to slow down the rate hike, the rally is so hard, but the market is wrong pricing the Fed intend.
in the speech
Powell said, "We are tightening the stance of policy in order to slow growth in aggregate demand. Slowing demand growth should allow supply to catch up with demand and restore the balance that will yield stable prices over time. Restoring that balance is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth."
Fed is intended to slow the growth below-trend, so the Market is still too hot now in the view of Fed and the control of inflation is now successful at this moment.
Powell continue, "Despite the tighter policy and slower growth over the past year, we have not seen clear progress on slowing inflation. To assess what it will take to get inflation down, it is useful to break core inflation into three component categories: core goods inflation, housing services inflation, and inflation in core services other than housing."
DJI's weekly Stochastic is over bought and have started to turn South again. it's a good time to Sell DJI.
S&P500 Will Dow's Golden Cross be a life saver for S&P?The S&P500 got rejected just above the 1D MA200 on the Lower Highs Resistance holding since Jan 2022. Contrary to that, Dow Jones not only has broken above its Lower Highs Resistance since Nov 10th but also made a Higher High above the August High, before getting rejected.
With a Golden Cross emerging on the 1D chart, Dow has high chances of bouncing on the former (Lower Highs) Resistance and establish it as a Support. This can be just whar the S&P500 needs to kick start its rally that breaks above almost a full year of Lower Highs.
Will it succeed?
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
DJI US30 Supply And demand Analysis-price inside pivot point 4hr demand
-Price above 200MA
-looking fro buys
-a lot of retail traders have this area on the chart so I would
be a little concerned about that and could see price go below.
+ price has been going nowhere but up for 45 days so a pullback is healthy.
-Need to see lower timeframe confirmation.
S&P test of 200 day and 2022 down channelYou can see that over the last two days that the S&P is jumped above the 200 day on Wednesday huge rally, which also broke above the April 2021 gap. However, today saw a rejection of the resistance of the down channel that started Jan 2022 ATH. This channel has rejected price solidly 2x times now.
The most probable thing would be to see a rejection and to head lower, likely testing the 370 level.
However, the market is fickle that way. Zag when you expect a Zig. Lot of talk about a Xmas rally. I think there is still some room to run up to the blue trend line, which is parallel to the other blue line connecting the major lows this year. That would be around 425 at the turn of the new year, but still a lower high.
IMO, market feeling super irrational like most bear market rallies. Somehow everything is better now that the expectation is a 0.5 instead of 0.75 rate hike, and inflation is only 7% instead of 10%. All things that would be market killers any other year. The Fed still expects to raise rates to 5% or more, so still several hikes to go. And the expectation is the next round of earnings in the new year will be down. I have a hard time seeing a truly sustained rally back to the ATH or higher. I personally did some light buying in October and hoping for some profits for xmas. I am not super enthused to buy for what looks like a small, but risky gain. Day traders may be happy for the next few weeks, but longer term still feels pretty bearish to me.
#DOWTHEORY transports failing to confirm new highs in industrialIf you believe in Dow Theory then the fact that transports have not been able to make a new high compared to the August Swing highs, should make you doubt the new highs seen in the industrials. Normally this is a sign of underlying weakness so the expectation would be for further weakness to come in general equities.
DJI Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Hello,Friends!
In this market situation, I am looking at multiple indicators
And I can see bearish momentum accumulating on the pair right now
This sentiment makes me bearish biased and I am considering a short!
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
How VIX follows SPXVIX is a measure of volatility. It takes the last 30 days of SPX, and measures it's variance.
I would guess that VVIX does the exact same thing to VIX, it takes the recent 30 days of VIX, and measures it's variance.
These two, along with SKEW are some of the methods investors calculate risk. I don't have the technical/financial knowledge on the ways investors can use risk management for better financial decisions.
If we do some "magic" we can transform these notoriously unchartable indices.
I am aware that since VIX takes the value of SPX, gets affected by both the volatility and the price of SPX. So technically from it's nature VIX tracks SPX.
If, for example, we plot the chart (1-VIX) we will see the following:
As we already know, he inverse of VIX follows SPX. Low volatility equals high SPX.
The calculation logic of the chart is: Scale down VVIX such that it is in a similar scale to VIX. Then subtract one from the other.
SPX is scaled down, after we divide it by M2SL.
I would guess that from 2009 to 2019, the growth was sustained because VIX was consistently low.
I also noticed that VVIX this year is incredibly low. One would expect that with such this year's recession that VVIX would also pick up the pace. During periods of very high volatility like the Great Recession, VVIX tracks VIX. Not this year however...
As a fellow trader pointed out quite some time ago:
Now VIX is higher and it's behavior with VVIX is very similar to 2008. We could say that the current situation is much similar to 2000 or with 1970s with stagflation and not 2008. Some things however, they smell foul. The elephant in the room maybe...
SKEW is in an all-time low. This could encourage investors to over-expose. THAT is when crashes happen. Overexposing when liquidity is being dried up from the FED, is a recipe for disaster. Even if we grow from here and everyone wins, who will have the money to pay back all these winnings? Especially now, with everyone investing like crazy, over-leveraging and such. And if EVERYONE is buying, who is selling? "Buying the dip" is part of the equation...
I believe that the bottom is NOT in yet. And since charting indirect stuff like VIX, like housing, yields, energy, all point to the same direction, I cannot ignore them.
PS. The elephant is the collapsed worldwide-production-chain. The elephant is that we are one step away from war or famine. And maybe, just maybe, the elephant is long gone... we just don't know it yet.
And we are talking about how the DOW will not fall. We are convinced that we are in the bottom and we are buying the dip. We are dreaming of more money quicker.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
I am not a trader, I am a father of a cat named Alyx. Don't take what I say as trading advice.
DJI Potential For Bearish DropLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. However, I am looking to play a reversal. Looking for a sell entry at 34300.40 where the previous high is. Stop loss will be placed at 35411.35, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 33240.22, slightly above where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Market Update - BTC, ETH, DXY, DJI, NDX, SPXQuick market update of weekend price action primarily focusing on BTC.
The expectation is that bearish deviations are starting to show up on the 4hr
a smaller retracement is expected. Still general bullishness in the market,
however, we have outlined some levels to focus on primarily 17.1k and 17.45k
Keep an eye on the DXY and expect some inverse correlation as usual
Channel continuation or Trading Range?Market's atmosphere is good and we can have more upward movements in coming days.
If it is fail , it is more likely to have some trading ranges after a little correction for a few days!
Strong Bearish Bo at current point will increase the chance of falling down!
Do not enter until it is completely clear for you!!
Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 3.06% last week according to VXD data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 7th percentile, while according to VXD, we are on 8th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.6% movement
Bearish: 1.9% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 19.5% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 35473
BOT: 33370
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
79% probability we are going to touch previous high of 34750
21% probability we are going to touch previous low of 33370
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 77% BULLISH trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend
4H timeframe indicates 53.3% BULLISH trend
FED PIVOT conclusion= BUY/SELL setupFED PIVOT conclusion to take ENTRY:
FED PIVOT 2022 looks similar to 1973:
PIVOT MONTH=if occur in DECEMBER.
POSSIBILITY= <30% rise(BULL TRAP) (17.44% already happened) till
JANUARY followed by around 40% CRASH.
FED PIVOT 2007:
PIVOT MONTH=AUGUST.
14.99% rise till october followed by 57.69% CRASH.
FED PIVOT 2000:
PIVOT MONTH=DECEMBER.
10.31% rise(BULL TRAP) till JANUARY followed by 44.44% CRASH.
FED PIVOT 1973:
PIVOT MONTH=OCTOBER.
13.11% rise(BULL TRAP) already happened
till OCTOBER followed by 45.97% CRASH.