DJI: 1D like bounce in channel to 34K As above.
Looks like obeying down channel with support and bounce off bottom trend line at 31K. Likely small uptrend to 34K.
Will follow.
DJI
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my buy entry at 33987.06, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be placed at 34595.51, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and previous low are. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the previous swing high is located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DOW JONES Has the narrative changed to bullish?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has entered into a new short-term pattern on the 4H time-frame, a Bullish Megaphone. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) is the pivot right in the middle of it and the short-term Support is the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), once a long-term Resistance which rejected the previous High on August 16.
Almost two months ago with our October 20 analysis, we argued why the trend has changed to bullish and if Dow broke above the 1D MA300, it would restore it on the long-term as well:
Is that still the case? In our view yes, especially when we see formerly bearish patterns on the 1D RSI and MACD indicators, turned to bullish. As you see we are at a point on the 1D RSI (blue circle) where the price was already below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on April 26 and with the 4H MA100 as the Resistance was trending downwards. Same with the 1D MACD, which is so far ignoring the Bearish Cross. So instead of those indicators turning the price bearish, we are above the 1D MA300 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) within a Bullish Megaphone. The once bearish narrative seems to have changed to bullish.
So what now? The 1D Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) is the first such bullish formation since August 05 2020, back in the period when Dow Jones was recovering from the COVID pandemic crash. This means that as long as the 1D MA50/200 Support, we can buy the pull-backs and gradually target new Highs. Our next target is the 35550 (April 21 High) Resistance. Only break below the 1D MA50 and subsequent rejection upon testing it as a Resistance, will be a bearish signal, potentially going all the way back to 29000.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible buy entry at 33987.06, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be placed at 34595.51, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and previous low are. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the previous swing high is located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
$DOW US30 SPX- Going up? I am long!Fina trade this channel. Respect Risk. Keep it simple. The chop tomorrow is the only thing to be mindful off.
DJII want to talk to you now about world crises.
A global economic crisis is a dramatic deterioration of the global economy. It manifests itself in a significant reduction in production, disruption of production relations, bankruptcy of enterprises, and growth of unemployment.
Micro-crisis markets occur almost every 8 to 15 years, but we will briefly consider only the most serious ones.
The crisis of 1929 is probably the most interesting crisis, and it is the one that everybody talks about and everybody talks about the crisis with this example.
The crisis of 1929 was a result of urbanization, which led to a high unemployment rate in the United States, the crisis of overproduction, the aftermath of the First World War, which led to a redistribution of the world and of the raw materials markets.
The crisis of 1978, one of the most usual crises, was caused by the overestimation of the market and the trading by the traders with the software (only introduced at that time). The mechanism is simple, the market falls within the usual crisis, the software understands that it is necessary to short, all the traders short, and the price goes lower and lower. Plus the Chicago stock exchange goes down, supposedly because of a crash, but we all know that this was probably done on purpose, as part of a stop to the decline. Because of this stoppage, the crowd got hooked on more panic, and the market began to fall more intensely.
The crisis of 2008. The causes were, as always, the blowing of the market bubble, when the stocks of the companies were very overvalued, as well as the overheating of the economy on the background of the uncontrolled growth process of the mortgage lending to the population.
The crisis of March 2020 is due to covid constraints as a consequence of the panic and shutdown of production.
The crisis of 2022, most likely in the future, will be combined into one with the crisis of 2020, as in principle one arises from the other, plus an uncontrolled stampede of currency to strengthen the economy, as well as a large-scale war in the center of Europe.
I think this is not the end, and the decline of the entire world economy will continue.
Translated with www.DeepL.com (free version)
What's with the VIX? 13th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Today we saw the unusual situation where the VIX jumped significantly higher and the S&P500 equity index also rose higher. Normally, these two indices move opposite to each other i.e. higher level of volatility (often due to fear) leads to lower equity prices and vice versa.
➤ Astute watchers would have seen this occurrence a few times in the past. The last time I recall something like this happening was during August 2020. For five trading days, S&P500 moved exponentially higher whilst VIX jumped from 20 to above 30. S&P500 then reversed quickly and wiped out all the gains within a couple of days.
➤ I'm not expecting the above outcome with imminent Inflation data on 13th Dec and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec. The relationship with the VIX and S&P500 should snap back very quickly. Perhaps what is happening is that there are big bets by both Bulls and Bears, bidding up the price of volatility. What may happen is a complete fizzle in equity prices with a lack of movement.
➤ I currently hold a -8% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Perhaps people's expectations are getting ahead of themselves.
DJI Daily Bearish EW TargetsHere we are mapping the next impulse down.
We did some calculations but we will let the chart drawings do the talking.
Thanks for watching.
Namaste.
Bitcoin's Volume Profile | Weekly & Monthly TimeframesLooking at the bitcoin's volume profile on Binance, we can see the biggest weekly red/bear volume bar ever printed early November.
Chart | BTCUSDT Weekly
This volume came in as bitcoin broke below support and hit a multi-year low.
Let's move to bitcoin's (BTCUSD) monthly timeframe
In September 2022 bitcoin printed its highest bearish volume month ever but remained trading above Fib. support.
In November we have another strong bearish month but this time the 0.786 Fib. retracement support level was broken, a very important level.
The monthly candle closed below it.
Now Bitcoin is trading below this level and aiming lower, one final drop, just as we saw with the SPX, DJI and NDX (See "Related Ideas" below).
Bitcoin Corrects Over 84% From Major Bullish Waves
We have mainly two scenarios, we expect the bottom to be in/confirmed before the traditional financial markets and also before April 2023.
Scenario #1 (red arrow): Straight down. No relief rally. The worst possible scenario and depression/job application washing cars for us.
Scenario #2 (green arrow): Price bounce followed by a very strong flash crash that sets the bottom and the slow paced recovery starts to take place followed by sustained long-term growth.
Read the articles below for a broader market perspective:
💾 S&P 500 Index (Bring In The Bad News, We Are Ready)
💾 Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Analysis (Lower High = Short)
💾 Nasdaq 100 Index | Strong Crash Ahead (Prepare!)
💾 Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) | Goes GREEN/Bullish!
Namaste.
DJ30 - Bias remains bearishDJ30 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 33735 (stop at 33885)
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 34398 from 28612 to 30822. The medium-term bias remains bearish. Bespoke resistance is located at 33735. Rallies continue to attract sellers.
Our profit targets will be 33400 and 32700
Resistance: 33735 / 34000 / 34400
Support: 33400 / 32697 / 32600
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible buy entry at 33240.22, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32485.23, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line and previous high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) | Goes GREEN/Bullish!It is no secret, when the major indexes move down, the VIX goes up.
We can see the inverse correlation quite easily as the VIX had a major bearish wave, from Sept. to Nov., just as the DJI and SPX moved up.
Now the VIX bottomed late November and this week closed above MA200 and EMA300.
The first green week in multiple months.
Ok, let's predict the future.
The VIX will move first to 27.90, easily.
It can go higher and hit 30 and also higher... 33. Midterm (1-3 months).
Long-term (3-6 months or longer) ... Above 43 and even 58.
Ok! Let's just wait, nobody can predict the future... And these are just codes... You are looking at squares and lines on a screen... Really?
We will see!
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Nasdaq 100 Index | Strong Crash Ahead (Prepare!)All of the three major indexes, SPX, DJI and NDX (Nasdaq 100), the NDX looks the worst.
It seems that the technology sector will be the one that will suffer the most.
There is no upward correction when you compare the NDX to the DJI and even the SPX.
Here we see very little recovery in Oct. - Nov.
This is very bad news.
The stocks are going to suffer strong.
The big ones... Well, according to this chart.
The NDX closed weekly below EMA10 and a major downtrend is easy to spot and has been going since November last year. This one peaked together with Cryptocurrency.
We can see that the SPX peaked two months after Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin.
Think about it... Bitcoin can bottom two months before the SPX.
Ok, Nasdaq 100.
The main support we are looking at short-term is ~10,500.
It can easily go below 9000 based on the current weakness.
It seems TradFi will bottom in 2023.
After the bottom, we go up.
If you want the full analysis, long-term targets... Visit my May 24, 2022 article.
14 Trade Ideas Predicting The NDX Crash | Where Is The Bottom?
I love you for your continued support.
Thank you my friend.
Namaste.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Analysis (Lower High = Short)The DJI broke its January downtrend in early November this year but also closed the week full red/bearish.
Make sure to read my S&P 500 Index (SPX) analysis before reading this one.
Check the "Related Ideas" at the bottom of this post.
The SPX and DJI are like Bitcoin and Ethereum, they move together.
Sometimes one can move ahead of the other and we see small variations but its ultimately all the same.
As I just mentioned, the DJI hit a new high in its Sept.-Nov. correction yet multiple bearish signals are already in.
We have a rising wedge pattern that already broke bearish.
The last three candles combined form a bearish pattern as well... What was the name...
Anyway, support will be found first at EMA10/EMA21/EMA50 or the following range, 32,328 and 32,973. This is short-term.
We do have this support but it isn't like to hold after 3 months of upward correction, the Nov. peak compared to Jan. is still a lower high...
The 29,900/30,000 can come into play short-term (within 1 month) but also the lower levels mid to long-term.
These are marked on the chart with light blue.
If you want to see the long-term targets, visit this trade idea from May 24, 2022 | 11 Trade Ideas Predicting The DJI Crash | Where Is The Bottom?
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
#Bitcoin Decouples from #DJI -11/7/23Bitcoin has decoupled from the DJI for the first time.
11/7/23
Will there be an explosive move to correct?
Will this trend continue?
DOW JONES: is on the best long term buy levelBased on the 6 month RSI, Dow Jones is making the final rebound on a Lower Highs pattern that since the 1920s leads to a multi year rally to a peak that ends in a Bear Market.
Remarkably all those rallies started on almost the same intervals: 1921, 1962, 1991 and now 2022. Two out of the previous three made the peak at the end of their respective decade.
Key note is the 90 year Higher Lows Support that has formed the low during all thre major Bear Markets of the past 100 years.
It is hard to believe now amidst the high inflation, global geopolitics ect, but Dow Jones may be at the best long term buy level that could lead to an extreme high at the end of the decade.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
DJI about to reverse?DJI seems to be in a megaphone pattern on the weekly with a hanging man candle right at resistance. A red candle next week should confirm reversal. If it falls below 29200 with momentum I'm expecting 29200 to act as resistance thereafter.
SPX weekend updateThis will be my weekend update.
Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport.
For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person
We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates.
Ok lets get back to the report:
I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower).
- So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday!
- Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance)
- Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target
A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48
As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed!
So that call was successfully fulfilled.
As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative.
Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday.
This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal
Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX
Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal
VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets.
Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there.
On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day!
So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day!
CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th.
From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan.
This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:)
Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there:
strawpoll.com
So far 40 already made their bets
Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful!
Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework.
If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation.
Tima
DXY updateIn the previous analysis, which was placed in the weekly time frame, we said that it seems that the upward trend of the dollar index continues.
In the 1-hour timeframe, it seems that an Elongated Flat pattern is forming and we are currently in wave C. This pattern shows that we are probably facing a triangle in the future and the correction of this indicator can be a triangle pattern.
After the completion of the pattern, at least 61.8% of the wave C can be expected to return.
Short downside till Fed Rate decision10th Dec 2022
Next week due to CPI and FOMC Rate decision, market will be highly volatile.
Monitor DJI drop to 50% Fibo level, 32800 and determine the next movement.
If Fed announce 50 basis point, may cause short term upside hitting above 34300. However don't be over optimistic as we are in the QT + high rate + inflation environment.
Max Resistance 35300
Support 32800 (Pivot support)
S&P rally looks to be over for now based on 20 day MAIf you look back over this long correction since the beginning of the year, every time the price closed with a red candle below the lower bound of the 20 day moving average the price continued to move lower. I don't see why this time is any different.
I would expect support at the $380 and maybe down to the $375 level. That would bring the S&P right around the mid line of the channel. After that, don't know.
money rotations,"the dow bones, the og index has already shown us what the market is about to do.
those who know, shall prosper, those who don't will be left behind in the winds."
---
i'm theorizing that all the dow money is going to rotate into big tech, small caps, and the spx500 in the next 3-4 months.
it's more probable for the dow to just chop while everything else runs up big time.
don't get caught in the distribution phase, seek opportunity elsewhere.
---
dow bones, expanded flat target sits between 36.1~36.8k.
---
happy holidays ♥
