DJI
DOW JONES Attention! These are currently the key levels to know!Following a successful sell signal at the top of the long-term Channel Up (March 28, see chart below), Dow Jones (DJI) is staging its first attempt to resume the bullish trend:
Observing past behavior in similar circumstances often helps at making such projections, so we placed Dow's previous correction in August 2023 (right chart) next to today's. The key levels when the index made a similar attempt to regain the long-term bullish trend as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci.
As you can see on August 31 it marginally broke above both but failed to close a single 4H candle above them and was subsequently rejected back to the 0.236 Fib. A 4H MACD Bearish Cross took place exactly on that candle's rejection.
As a result, we will only buy the break-out if Dow closes a 4H candle above the current 0.618 Fib (38950) in which case we will target the 40000 High. Until then we will sell even the slightest 4H MA200 rejection and target 37900 (Fib 0.236). We can already see a 4H MACD Bearish Cross emerging. The risk either way is low.
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DOW JONES: Pattern worked like beauty. Technical rebound.Dow quickly turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.651, MACD = -238.11, ADX = 37.915) not staying for long on its previous bearish state as after hitting our TP = 37,300 it rebounded emphatically and is about to test the 1D MA50. The pattern was the same as the prior corrections inside the Channel Up: pullback to the 0.382 and -6.95% in particular like on December 20th 2022. Now the price should at least retrace to the 0.786 Fib on this bounce. Long TP = 39,350.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to the resistance area of 38458.Dear colleagues, I believe that wave "4" is not yet completed. To complete it, it is necessary to complete the double zig-zag. I expect that the movement "c" will end in the area of 37350, then I expect growth and the beginning of wave "5" with the goal to reach at least the resistance area of 38458. Be careful, perhaps wave "c" will be a bit shorter and it will mean that the upward movement will start earlier.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen
most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan ,
so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market
times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral
so t-bill market happend this method
But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now
So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it
and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
So market topped out
DOW JONES Sell target hit. When will it reverse?Dow Jones (DJI) hit the 38050 Target that we set on our last bearish call (March 28, see chart below) and broke below Support 1 (February 13 Low) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line):
The price now faces more selling pressure being below two MA periods and with the long-term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 bottom), having considerable downside to give. As we mentioned on our March idea above, the most effective buy entry within this long-term pattern is when the 1D CCI makes the first Higher Low after having broken below the -100.00 oversold barrier.
That is what happened on March 13 2023 and September 22 2023 (even though that sequence had one more Low to give). The most fascinating characteristic of both those corrective Legs was that they both declined by -9.25%. If Dow repeats this decline, we are looking at 36285, which is just above Support 2 but currently exactly where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is.
The latter is our main point of focus and assuming the index will give a dead-cat-bounce now towards th 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we project that it may hit the 1D MA200 around 36900. If that coincides with a 1D CCI Higher Low, it will be in our opinion the most optimal buy entry for the next long-term Bullish Leg, targeting 41000.
Note that the dead-cat-bounces on both previous Bearish Legs, never closed a 1D candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, so that is the parameter that will keep the current correction valid. If we do get a 1D candle close above the 0.618 Fib, it will technically be a pattern invalidation and trend reversal upwards so we will buy the bullish break-out and Target 41000 regardless.
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Dow Jones: Analyzing Market Sentiment Amidst Powell's RemarksThe Dow Jones Industrial Average, a bellwether index reflecting market sentiment and economic outlook, experienced a notable shift in dynamics following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After a previous push-down impulse triggered by Powell's speech yesterday, the index exhibited a remarkable recovery during the Asian session, opening the new session with bullish sentiment. Powell's indication of a "higher for longer" stance swiftly reversed the previous bearish sentiment, highlighting the market's sensitivity to central bank communications.
However, amidst the bullish momentum, the market faces a balancing act as hawkish remarks from Powell and lingering geopolitical risks offset positive developments such as robust quarterly earnings from UnitedHealth and Morgan Stanley. The juxtaposition of these factors underscores the intricacies of market dynamics, where sentiment can quickly pivot in response to changing narratives.
From a technical perspective, the Dow Jones remains in a bearish retracement phase. However, an intriguing observation emerges on the H4 timeframe, where divergence in price signals a potential shift in momentum. This divergence, coupled with the bullish sentiment observed during the Asian session, suggests that the index may be poised for growth in the near term.
In light of these developments, our strategy revolves around a scalping setup with a focus on short-term gains. We advocate for a close take profit approach, capitalizing on the current momentum while remaining cognizant of potential market fluctuations. Furthermore, we envision a longer setup, aligning with historical data indicating a statistical bias towards long positions during this part of the year, particularly in April.
SPY Right On TrackAs stated in this weekends video update, I expected us to retest the top of the red channel first, with potential to drop back inside the channel and test the bottom. The middle yellow channel is also a less likely possibility. I don't think we'll get down to the green again until AFTER we hit are WAVE 5 target and also, Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern target of 570. This should be hit sometime on or just before September of 2024. ...Then the crash.
DOW JONES: Close to our Target. Is it a buy after?Dow Jones is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.431, MACD = -279.330, ADX = 39.462) and is approaching our TP = 37,300 that we called nearly one month ago. The target will be a direct hit at the middle of the long term Channel Up and approach the 0.382 Fibonacci. As long as the 1D MA200 supports, we will then reverse to buying, at least on the short term, expecting a rebound to the 0.786 Fib (TP = 39,350) like on January 16th 2023.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES Secret Cycles you didn't know existed!On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view.
To begin with, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the absolute multi-year Support level (since October 2010 only two candle closings below it, March 2020 COVID flash crash and recently the September 2022 inflation bottom). The market deems every pull-back towards it, a buy opportunity with the lowest possible risk.
Since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis, the 1M RSI bottoms on Lower Lows help us classify the multi-month phases into Cycles. The duration of each Cycle since the 1st, has been pretty consistent (39 to 48 months so far).
When the index closes a 1M candle below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the correction towards the 1M MA50 is usually under way. Also there is a striking consistency on the growth of each Cycle. As you can see, with the exception of the first (naturally the most aggressive since it was the start of the recovery after a Bear Cycle), every Cycle sees gains within the range of +70% and +77%.
As a result assuming the new Cycle follows a similar pattern, we can expect a minimum Target of 48850 (+70% from Low) and a Cycle ending on December 2025 (39 months from previous Low). Technically the index should peak around the the start of 2025, entering a volatile period towards the end of the year. This is as close to a projection one can make on such a long-term horizon and with tons of fundamental risks involved.
Where do you think Dow Jones will top at?
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to the resistance area of 39419. Dear colleagues, the price has passed many points in the downward movement and at the moment I suppose that the price is completing the corrective wave "4" and very soon will start the upward movement in the wave "5". It is possible to update the low in the area of 38458 and then move to the resistance area of 39419. It is possible that the price will immediately start an upward movement, so I consider only long positions and will look for the best entries to this position.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DOW JONES below the 1D MA50 after 5 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent sell entry following our last analysis (March 28, see chart below) as it got rejected and made a bearish reversal exactly where we expected it to:
Last Thursday it even broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in exactly 5 whole months (since November 03 2023)! This is a bearish break-out confirmation signal and we expect a new sell-off soon.
As you can see the former (dotted) Channel Down broke downwards and has given way to a (blue) Channel Down. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has now been turned into Resistance with one confirmed rejection already (April 04).
The Channel Down has fairly symmetrical Bearish Legs so far, -2.36% and -2.20%. Assuming the new will be at a -2.20% minimum, we are expecting a Lower Low at 38200.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long (update the top of wave 3 39980).Dear colleagues, it is possible that the price will update the local low and finish wave 4 a little lower, which means that we will have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably! The target remains the same - to update the maximum of wave 3 39980.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long (update the top of wave 3 39980).Dear colleagues, it is possible that the price will update the local low and finish wave 4 a little lower, which means that we will have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably! The target remains the same - to update the maximum of wave 3 39980.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Dow Jones Industrial Averages Weekly Technical Analysis(1) We have witnessed a sharp fall from 29,500 level in Feb’20. This was almost 38% fall from the top. Market had gone in a oversold zone.
(2) Around 18,300 level, price found a support and bounced back from this level.
(3) With an upside rally, price managed to breakout its previous resistance.
(4) After the breakout, we have seen a sharp upside rally further and the price reached at 36,950 level.
(5) A corrective decline has been seen from there and the price started making lower highs and lower lows at reached to 28,800 level.
(6) Price again bounced back from there and gave a upside move.
(7) In this entire consolidation phase, a Cup & Handle chart pattern has been formed, which gave us positive indication.
(8) With a strong breakout of the Cup & Handle pattern, price started its journey upside.
(9) Currently the price is standing near its All Time High. More upside move is expected from here.
So goes Apple so goes the market? The old wall street adage! so goes apple....
Were at a pretty interesting level.
Are market makers going to make this breakdown in apple easy?
A head & shoulders breakdown is now on watch for a confirmed break.
This does imply a decent down move and will undoubtedly weigh on markets if it happens.
Keep an eye on the second largest company in the world.
DOW JONES At the edge of the cliff.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up, while at the same time holding the Inner Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Support is getting increasingly weak as it is now on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the closest it has been to the price action since the the November 2023 break-out.
Technically this is as overbought as it can get on the 1D time-frame and the 1D CCI gives a clear sell signal that is consistent with the late July and January 2023 peaks. On this scale, the time to buy is far from the current prices, quite the contrary, the RR favors selling on the short-term.
We are expecting 38050 (Support 1) to be tested on the 0.618 Channel Fib level. Even though the previous two corrections made -9.25% dips, the time to buy would be when the 1D CCI posts a Higher Low on oversold territory. That was a solid buy signal in 2023. The ideal price level for that would be as close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as possible, although it is not necessary.
Profit by selling short-term and buying the dip long-term.
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