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Close Call, 5 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities reversed course on Tuesday trade, however two aspects remain unchanged: 1) Nasdaq outperformed Russell 2000 2) Late buying into the close. ➤ Without that late buying, I would have taken a small short position to test out the waters, jumping straight back into the action. It was a close call. As it is, I will have wait to see how tomorrow's price action unfolds. The price action will dictate the potential directional trade I will take. Although a short position is favoured, it could also just as easily trigger a buy/long position too! Price could remain ambiguous in which case I take no action. ➤ We should note that the price bounced off the 6th March high that acted as minor support and it is trapped above by the resistance zone as labelled in my chart. Ideally I would like the price to break free from this area. That would remove some if not all of the ambiguity. ➤ Conclusion: Hunt is on.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES Top of the Channel Down but will it stop there?Dow Jones reached today the top of the Channel Down pattern. This is a rise almost proportional to July 14th-22nd (around 7%). Both crossed over the RSI Falling Resistance and at the same time the MA50 (1d). Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the 1d candle close over the MA50 (1d). 2. Sell if it closes under. Targets: 1. 34950 (Resistance 2). 2. 32600 (MA200 1d). Tips: 1. RSI (1d) of the two rises is at the same level after the breakout. Also both started rising on the 30.00 level, giving us more the impression that they are indeed similar patterns under same market conditions. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingBrokersView
1
Head & Shoulders, 4 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities continued their advance although it was the DJIA large caps that led the way. We haven't seen that for a while. ➤ S&P500 has hit the first resistance zone. I also got the exit signal to my long position. I guess that's a pretty good place to part from a solid profitable trade. ➤ If we observe some chart patterns, noticeably people have been calling out the head and shoulders formation for a bearish outlook. The right shoulder is being formed. This will be easily discounted if prices moves above the head (2nd Feb high). One could also argue we are in the midst of a bullish double bottom formation with the Dec 2022 and March lows being the bottoms. That will be affirmed also with a move above Feb 2. ➤ Conclusion: I don't rely on chart formations as they are a bit of a hit and miss but it's always beautiful to see one work out. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Neutral, 3 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The mid-March march in equities has neutralised the short-term down-trend. A higher high as been set. To move from neutral to an uptrend we need to see a subsequent higher low. That potential higher low could come swiftly. ➤ S&P500 is at key levels with 410 and 417 acting as resistance on the SPY. A correction in the price should close the unfilled price gaps at 404 and 397. The latter target is where the 200-day moving average hovers. ➤ We should also expect some profit-taking especially in the mega cap tech names after a massive near +18.6% quarter gain in the Nasdaq. This too will help to fulfill the above scenario. ➤ Conclusion: I remain positioned long with a moderately-sized position. Just waiting for an exit signal. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES above the 1D MA50 for the first time in monthDow Jones hit (and closed over) the 1D MA50 on Friday for the first time in more than a month (Feb 20th last closing over it). With 1D technicals on very healthy bullish levels (RSI = 60.420, MACD = 12.500, ADX = 35.536) this is a very positive sign on the long-term. Especially since the RSI crossed over the 4 month LH trendline. Our TP (33,450) from our trade idea 2 weeks ago (see below) is almost hit, however short term traders need to start and consider the immediate Reistance levels that the index needs to break in order to extend the long term rally. This is firstly the 33,550 High of March 6th and secondly the top of the December Channel Down pattern. A 1D closing above each would be a bullish continuation signal that would target the next level of Resistance. Primarily we look for a closing above the Channel Down in order to target R1 (TP = 34,350). Conversly a rejection and closing under the 33,550 Resistance would target the lower Symmetrical Support (TP = 32,600). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
U
by InvestingScope
Room for MOAR? 31 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Once again equities gapped higher. Depsite some "gap filling" action, price recovered to finish some distance from the lows. All is not equal of course, Nasdaq still leads the way and Russell2000 small cap woefully lagging. Long big tech and and short the weaker small caps would have been a wonderful trade. ➤ So is there MOAR upside to come? From a technical standpoint, yes, perhaps a bit more. Immediate resistance at 405 on the SPY followed by 410 and 417 areas. It will require VIX to remain low for the higher targets to be achieved. That is certainly plausible. Note that a print above 407.45 (6th March high) would void the short-term down trend due to a higher high. ➤ Keep in mind the sizable lower price gap that is unfilled from Wednesday trade. ➤ Conclusion: Still holding on to my moderate long position. An exit shouldn't be too far away especially if there is a sizable down turn in price. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
DOW JONES almost on our target. What's next?Two weeks ago, we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down: The price has almost hit our 33100 Target and we think it is time to look into the longer term. We made a case on the idea above that Dow is currently repeating the October - November rally, as the RSI pattern is identical. In addition, that larger pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase. As a result the target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4-6 weeks at 35400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
The 400, 30 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities shot up higher with you guessed it...Nasdaq leading the way. If investors did not have a large tech allocation, they have been left way way behind at least so far this year. ➤ S&P500 is up 5% YTD but is now back trafficking at the 400 level. This has been the recent "zero" line from where prices oscillate up and down 5% on either side. With VIX now collapsing to low levels, the up move since the 14th March low may be limited. This is especially true as we are in a range-bound market regime. ➤ Given the above, I took off half of my long position leaving a moderate sized exposure. In this environment, whenever price hits resistance or support, there is a chance the price can reverse rather aggressively. ➤ Note the sizable price gap due to today's jump at the open in the SPY. In recent times, all these gaps have been filled either immediately or shortly in the future. I don't see this gap being any different. ➤ Conclusion: A decent profit so far making up for lost time due to the sporadic trading action this month. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Flipper, 29 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another low volatility day. Equity prices recovered to finish where it started the day. For me it meant flipping my short position to being long/buy. ➤ "The Flipper" in Cricket is a bowling action made famous by the legend leg spinner Shane Warne...may he rest in peace. It's a normal looking spinning delivery but actually just skids on straight with extra pace. It often leads to the Batters' demise as he/she is completely fooled. ➤ In a way, the recent price action in equities is like that. With all the fearmongering, banking crisis, etc etc...the market has hardly budged. What was lost was recovered. VIX also didn't shoot up aggressively and has completely collapsed once again. ➤ Will it continue? Is the market too complacent? You should know my answer to that...I really don't care all that much although it is interesting listening to all the arguments. ➤ I'm just trading the price action as I see it. If I'm right or wrong, make or lose money it certainly isn't because I thought about this macro factor or that. That's just not my skillset. ➤ Conclusion: A bit peeved at not being to realise a decent profit on the short...let's see what a maximum-sized long play will bring. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
A Short Stay, 28 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A low volatility start to the week. NASDAQ underperformed while Russell 2000 small cap caught a bid. Price could not push through the short-term resistance level above 400 on the SPY. VIX keeps moving lower. ➤ I'm finally back in the action with a moderate short position. It's going to be a short stay, 1 or 2 days perhaps. It was kind of an unfortunate start. Equity prices burst higher in the few seconds into the close just after the opening of my position. A little bit annoyed with that. ➤ Conclusion: Remember that we are in choppy conditions so I'm not expecting any major directional moves as yet. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Chop Chop, 25 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The week ended positively for equities with brisk late buying on Friday trade. The exact opposite of the late strong sell-off on Wednesday just on a smaller scale. That sell-off remains the dominant feature. ➤ With the exception of Tech and perhaps day trading, it was pretty choppy everywhere else for generating returns. Somewhat like being swirled around in the washing machine not knowing where we will end up. At this juncture, one could come to the conclusion that despite all the hoo-ha about impending disaster it was just pure fear mongering built up with social media...at least in the very short term. ➤ I'm not too upset to have been left out of the action this week. I think any trade would have been chopped up and spat out. I'm looking forward to next week as the price action is evolving into a structure that is recognisable. ➤ Conclusion: Let's hope we don't get the same choppy conditions next week. Have a great weekend! EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
I'm No Day Trader, 24 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a day trader but it's a perfect market environment to be one. Volatility is just at the right level where prices swing/trend but are constrained in a range. Today was a perfect example. ➤ Equity prices swung up and down and finished slightly positive. Once again NASDAQ outperformed and the regional bank heavy Russell 2000 small cap stocks lagged. There's also lots of money to be made by astute sector selection just like last year. Money can still be made by a long-only investor in a Bear market! ➤ Today's price action keeps the Bears in play. An attempt to reverse yesterday's plunge failed albeit no further ground was lost. This was helped by the 200 day moving average acting as a wall of resistance. The VIX acted a bit better to correspond with that bearish tone but still looks unconvincing. ➤ Conclusion: We are getting closer to a suitable trade set-up. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
The Best Dentist, 23 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The Market is indeed the BEST Dentist. Rarely does it allow a gap to remain. The price gap in the SPY from Tuesday trade was immediately filled. Yesterday, I contemplated about the manner in that it was to be filled. The Market decided on the second option - a spike higher before moving lower. ➤ Equity markets sold-off aggressively at the end of the trading session. Small cap was battered once more losing almost double that of the major indices. ➤ Inspite of the selling, the VIX remained unperturbed. I would be sceptical of this bearishness if there was to be no follow-through selling and a move higher in the VIX. As you know, I'm keen to see follow-through action as a means of confirming a directional move. ➤ I was hoping for a bullish or small bearish day. That would have neatly set-up a potential short trade. Today's action stole a lot of that potential. That means I will need to wait patiently and see how price action evolves. ➤ Conclusion: Trading action has been a start and stop affair similar to Feb. Hopefully we will get into the action towards the end of the month! EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Watch the Gap, 22 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another positive day in equity markets and I'm sensing some kind of pattern. Small cap caught up a bit with the main indices. ➤ Today (Wednesday) is the main event. It's the US Fed interest rate decision day. There's no doubt everyone has an eye or ear on the announcement. ➤ Before you ask, I have no clue on the outcome per se and I don't particularly care. I don't have skin in the game so I'm not gonna be losing any sleep over it. BUT I'm of course interested in the price action post data release. I'm hoping the price action isn't too messy and ruin a good potential trade set-up. ➤ In terms of likely movement, there is an open price gap in the SPY due to Tuesday trade. Price can easily close that gap. The sequence of events would be interesting. Will the gap be closed immediately with a downward spike or will it be closed after a failure of an initial bullish phase? I again have no idea. ➤ Conclusion: Price action so far points to a bullish bias. We saw a similar set-up in Sept 2022. That time, price reversed immediately. Take care. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
None The Wiser, 21 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Positive day in equity markets and for once Nasdaq lagged in the advance against other major indices. ➤ There's lots of conjecture out there about the outperformance of the Nasdaq and for that matter Bitcoin over recent days during banking crisis. In my opinion, this was all directly related to the massive drop in yields in the Bond market. Lower rates generally benefits tech valuations (through their ability to borrow cheaply i.e a lower cost cost of capital). This risk-on mode also benefits Bitcoin. The high correlation between Tech and Nasdaq still hold. ➤ There is the argument that Bitcoin is now showing signs of "de-coupling" due it's "safe haven" status and being the anti-thesis of a de-basing fiat system. It may be true on the margin but in my view there is insufficient evidence. ➤ In terms of the overall price action today in equities, I am none the wiser to what happens next. Once again, the price was engulfed within the large Bullish bar on Thursday last week. VIX dropped marginally too but it is still elevated. Overall, it provides a slight bias towards the Bulls. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking forward to less ambiguous price action. This may occur post Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision. NOTES: 200-day Moving average back into the mix.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro