Back to Normal, 20th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities prices continued to fall. Two price gaps were closed. A lower gap that formed on the 10th Jan and the opening gap from Thursday trade. S&P500 has fallen below the support level at 390.
➤ I think it is clear that price has just formed a lower high. I could argue the short-term downtrend from the Dec 2022 high has been established. This counters the uptrend from the Oct 2022 low but re-aligns with the long-term downtrend since Jan 2022. Did you get that?
➤ Another thing that has re-aligned is that the Tech/Growth/Small cap stocks finally underperformed the DJIA and broader S&P500. This is "normal" behaviour under a risk-off period. Does that mean we are back to 2022 mode?
➤ I closed my long position with a loss as price didn't respond like I wanted. What I want and what the market gives are two separate things. Price may still bounce but I'm not going to risk it at this stage.
➤ Conclusion: Next trade is most likely an opportunity to go short. Standing by.
Djia
$DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder + Long term data on CrossoversThese are copy paste, pls see our profile
IF RIGHT Shoulder, $DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern, holds = STRENGTH
1/2
#DJI RSI WEAKENING, Negative Divergence
Last 2 days good SELL volume
Some interesting Moving Avg Crossover data on next post
2/2
$DJI Bullish Moving Avg Crossovers TEND to last
There's been few times it didn't:
Late 99-Early 02
Mid 78-Early 80
June-July 60
July-Sept 56
Feb 47
July 47
Whipsawed 1948
Oct 40-Jan41
Sept 39-Nay 40
Aug 32-Nov 32
You get point
#stocks #DJI $DIA $NDX $SPX
DJIA Monthly Chart ReviewToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI).
In the chart, I added in the RSI as well as review the Great Recession history to get an idea of where the DJI is headed. It seems that the DJI has been moving up an ARC with a possibility to come down and touch it again. It is currently inside a descending channel . If DJI price falls as much as it did during the Great Recession, it could come down to the $18K level where there is strong support. The RSI could support that type of drop as it is no where near the oversold region.
This is presented on the monthly chart so please have patience.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
SPX, Now 13th Oct low is critical !Taking out 3806.91 minor high puts 13th Oct low (3491.58) in a critical position.
As explained in my previous publications, there was a chance for best case scenario and market bounce at 0.5 Retracement of rally after pandemic low and Bulls, Bottom fisher and Dip Buyers took the chance however, is this best case scenario going to happen? Bulls should pray for market to sustain last created low !
I showed two different yet possible scenarios on the chart:
On the left side of the chart ,shown in green, we have our best case scenario which calls for completion of an ABC form of correction. With yesterday's taking out 3806.91 minor high we have now a proof for termination of last down going wave which is labeled as wave C. If this is going to happen , SPX will see unbelievable upside targets. The key for this scenario is 3491.58 low. As far as index is above this low, market is safe for bulls.
On the right side of the chart, shown in red, we have our terrifying scenario which suggests painful targets for SPX. I am sure that you can see powerful resistances in this chart. Index is below 50,100 and 200 days moving average and also below major down trend line. I intentionally excluded these resistances from best case scenario chart to show how optimism can make us ignore what we should see. Is market able to break all these powerful resistances and continue it's way up to new ATH and unbelievable targets? If not, Market will see very unpleasant, terrifying painful targets.
Macroeconomics, War and energy crisis, Inflation and FED's series of rate hikes do not support best case scenario but market is crazy sometimes. For me and to be in safe side, breaking out mentioned resistances is necessary to be sure about market up trend.
Please keep this golden statement in mind :
" Sometimes best thing to do in market is doing nothing "
Good Luck.
Bang! 19th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities fell sharpely on Wednesday trade. It was the largest down move of the new year. The market is reminding us that it's not a one way ticket to the moon. VIX is back above 20. I think we can forgive it for having a peek below the pink zone although I did think it would go lower prior to any rebound.
➤ S&P500 was battling the 200-day moving average. Price movement today rejected that level. It's not a conclusive failure as prices tend to whipsaw around such keenly watched technical levels.
➤ Still of interest is that the NASDAQ/TECH is still outperforming the DJIA BLUE CHIPS even on a large down day like today. Normally you would expect "riskier" assets to sell-off more during a risk-off phase.
➤ I opened a moderate long position looking for a quick trade.
➤ Conclusion: Dull one moment, intense the next.
Beginning of the End, 18th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ OK, I'm being over-dramatic with the title of today's note. It actually was a pretty dull day of trading. NASDAQ continues to outperform the Blue Chip indices showing that overall risk-on behaviour is still prevalent.
➤ VIX did bounce higher back into the pink zone. Is this the start of something bearish? It's ambigious. The price action in the S&P500 was not meaningful other than to say there was some profit-taking. With earnings season starting, prices may be jumpy too.
➤ I have closed my long positions and now hold no positions.
➤ Conclusion: Dull action leads to more intense action. Looking forward to it.
Dow Jones target still on track and new Target to 39,000Old Cup and Handle on Dow Jones is still in play and the target remains at 36,694
A new C&H is almost confirmed with the break to the upside.
The new target is 39,000
7>21 and price >200ma
Broken out of medium term downtrend
Bullish
The Dow Jones seems to be following the January effect (with expected upside)
Also, with Inflation coming at 6.5% as expected, shows the Great Inflation stage is over for now.
This is good for the economy as people will spend more and invest more.
Hopefully the rally will continue.
It Works Until It Doesn't, 15th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ This daily note comes a day early because I probably won't have time tomorrow morning.
➤ The VIX has fallen to it's lowest level for many months. It looks to be heading lower. This was a result of continued optimism in something...I'm not sure what exactly. Nevertheless, I'm not interested in knowing. I'm only interested in making money.
➤ Previously, when the VIX fell to these levels, we saw it reverse higher with equity markets falling. It was going like clockwork. However, markets don't remain static, things works until it doesn't. Many people have found this out with the reversal of the Dollar Trade.
➤ The next level for the VIX to potentially reverse higher is at 16. This was the low set at the ALL TIME HIGH for the S&P500 equity index. If you look back further in time, this level was the lows set on many occasions in 2021.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: FIX your eyes on the VIX.
Collapse,13th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The inflation number was as expected but managed to inflate equity prices higher. The small cap Russell 2000 leading the charge. This is a big change when the blue-chips were leading throughout last year. Tech is making up good ground as well.
➤ VIX collapsed below 20. Sending a strong signal to "fear" no more. Perhaps that is correct. Looking at the S&P500 chart, there is little resistance all the way up to 410. It is currently battling the 200 day moving average. For many investors, a clear break above this MA is a strong Bullish signal.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Watch the VIX, it is in the pink zone where Bears have instilled fear in recent times.
2% MORE PLEASE,12th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 accelerated higher with full confidence. Gapping up and finishing at the high of the day. All we need now is another 2% more!
➤ Why 2%? It's simple. For most Investors, that would take their 2023 returns to around 5-10%. The current interest rate is around 4-5% pa. All you need to do is exit equities and stick all the money on deposit at the bank...an easy double digit return for the year. Don't worry about 2022...that's ancient history.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Yes, I'm just kidding, that's not how investing works...NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
$DJI still looks great - Inverse Head & Shoulder in play!Keep eye on intraday $DJI volume 2c how we're doing
So far NO anomalies showing trouble for this run
Great Inverse Head Shoulder pattern going
Monthly Averages DIDN'T crossover = VERY good
Barring something crazy, $DJIA may have enough for 1 - 2 year move
$UDOW $DIA #stocks
Excitement, 11th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 reversed yesterday's price action. The excitement is building and it's not because of the inflation data.
➤ Wyckoffians will know what I'm talking about. The recent price action post break out of the small consolidation phase over the last couple of weeks is a classic looking Bullish/Accumulation pattern. It's almost textbook perfect. If it all goes to plan, prices are poised to explode higher.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Becareful of perfection.
DOW JONES: Holding above the 1D MA50.Dow Jones closed Friday clearly above the 1D MA50 (blue), switching its 1D technicals back to neutral/ bullish (RSI = 54.657, MACD = 2.080, ADX = 14.593). Following the Golden Cross on December 14h, the index is well supporting both on the former Lower Highs Resistance of the Bear Market as well as a Higher Lows line that started on the June 17th Low.
The latter fits the support of a potential Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that Dow may be trading in. As long as the 1D MA200 (orange) holds, the index targets the 35,400 - 35,800 Resistance Zone. If the 1D MA200 breaks, it targets the 30,200 - 29,700 Support Zone.
It is important to mention that the 1D MACD is on a Bullish Cross, historically a bullish medium-term signal.
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DOW JONES On familiar 1W MA50 Support, ready for a +50% rally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been holding the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, closing all weekly candles above it since November 07 2022. This on its own is a major bullish pattern, but if we look on a much long-term, decade long perspective, we can see an even higher significance it historically has on the price action.
As you see on this 1W time-frame, ever since Dow's recovery from the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and the first touch of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on August 2011, every time it bounces and recovers the 1W MA50, holding it as Support (blue circles), the index has grown from that bottom to the next top a minimum of +50% (with 55% of January 2018 being the maximum).
At the same time, the 1W RSI breaks above a Lower Highs trend-line. This time the RSI broke and even held and bounced off that Lower Highs trend-line (green arrow).
This chart shows that Dow Jones is no stranger to this pattern and technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, we should be treating it as a major bullish signal. A potential new +50% 2-3 year rally puts the target at 49000.
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What have we here? 10th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 tried and failed to break the 390 level. It was a thing of beauty if you were a neutral or positioned short. If you were long...🤬🤯🤦♀️
➤ All is not lost. The price did not break back into the consolidation (blue rectangle). The Bulls should still be favoured. It is usual for the price to retrace the break out to test that the break is true. You can refer to yesterday's note about a false break.
➤ I reduced my long position.
➤ Conclusion: The market is anxious. It wants to go up but it's unsure if it should.
$DJI leading the pack & Bear close to be done🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Not sure how this was missed!😱
$DJI looks VERY VERY VERY good
Went FULL BULL late Sept/early Oct
Mid Nov went neutral to short term bear
Mid December turned cautious bull
NOW
GOOD signs that September was BOTTOM!
-
This is daily & weekly
Inverse head & shoulder pattern = 1 of the best bottom forming patterns
IF right shoulder forms here = HUGE
We've spoken on light blue box area many times
Weekly $DJIA still looks GREAT
-
BONUS
$DJI monthly almost gave up BUT HELD
Did trade below the avg's but fought back
NO Bearish moving avg crossover
$DJIA movement can buy more time
Maybe year or 2
RSI looks ok
$DIA $UDOW $SDOW #stocks
$NDX means risk coming to playCopy post & continuation from posts not done here
Letting trades sit for moment
Called #risk coming, $NDX vs $DJI
#NDX almost 4x the performance today
NOT SAYING it's "over" but risk reward = GREAT #Bullish
For Friday volume was GOOD
Overall buying coming in last few days
Still like value but have lots of $TQQQ
#stocks
Hard to post all we write here, sorry!
The Real Test...9th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 marched higher to finish above the consolidation phase that I have mentioned in previous posts. The real test is if the price can hold above the breakout.
➤ In order to do so, the Bulls will need to overcome the first hurdle at the 390 level on the SPY. This is not the strongest of hurdles. Price has sliced through this level (up and down) on numerous occasions. It is therefore not the most reliable.
➤ A failure to hold would see prices reverse back into the consolidation. This would not be a good sign and I think the Bears would be encouraged to take advantage to push prices down to 371 at the minimum.
➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position.
➤ Conclusion: The bulk of the action may centre around the US inflation data on Jan 12th along with the start of earnings season.
DJI Open Long (eng) Hello Friends.
Unfortunately, the final way down did not wait
A big player closed his short position and got a new one in the range of 32800-33200.
Yesterday before the close of trading fixed the volume impulse in the market, which finally signaled a trend reversal
Forced to close the Short position at -2.57% from 32840.
Opened Long from 33680
From 06.01.2023 20:12 (GMT)
The arrow shows only the direction of the open trade - without the final target
I'm a bit upset that the deal spoiled the statistics of my analysis method
But this case only confirms the correctness of my approach
Now the statistics is represented by 9 positive trades and 1 negative
or 64.88% profit for the period from 08.07.2021
Thank you all for attention and have a nice trade in the New Year!
US30 Liquidity on bot sides of range. When will it dissolve?The tight range serves for alot of stop losses above and under both these key levels.
One side will get taken first, and probably serve as a trap, after which we see a reversal to the actual direction.
(my bias is currently to the downside as the final direction due to fundamentals and broader trend(s))
Although I by no means recommend trading off my bias or trading off this idea at all, especially if you're unfamiliar with the ideas put forth.
The red line should also not be seen as a prediction, merely as a drawing to indicate what I mean by reversal to actual direction with my bias.
It could just aswell take bottom-side liquidity first and then run to the upside.
Don't predict, react.
Boxed In...6th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 gapped lower and did not recover. It finished the day sitting on the support level. Price is clearly boxed in a consolidation phase as illustrated.
➤ Exponents of Elliott Wave Theory could interpret the current price action in two ways. In the Bullish case, price is developing an ABC corrective pattern after the 5 wave impulsive move off the October 2022 bottom. The Bearish interpretation is that price is in a wave 2 retracement as part of a 5 wave impulsive move lower from the December high. In either case, it points to a choppy period with a resolution soon.
➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position.
➤ Conclusion: Who's right and who's wrong?
First Opportunity...5th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Once more optimism helped equities start higher in morning trade. Not surprisingly, that enthusiasm waned again as price filled the opening gap by falling back to the support level. The difference today was that the price recovered to close the day above the opening.
➤ Given the strength, I have taken this opportunity to open my first trades of the year. I'm looking for continued strength. The first hurdle is to break above the consolidation high at 387.3 on the $SPY, 390 is then the second hurdle. I don't expect to hold this buy position for long especially if price stays within the consolidation or fails to the downside.
➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position.
➤ Conclusion: We're off to the races.