DOW JONES Should this Bearish Cross worry us?The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) hit our 40000 Target that we set on our May 06 idea (see chart below) and after that experienced a sharp pull-back:
So far this is within the lines of a natural technical correction correction towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which during uptrends tends to be re-tested as a Support. Notice also that this is where the 0.382 Fibonacci level is, an important technical Support during pull-backs.
As long as it holds, the Channel Up has the much needed Higher Low that can enable it to move to a Higher High. We expect that to be around 41500 (+6.30% rise, similar to the previous Bullish Leg).
On the other hand, since the 1D MACD completed a Bearish Cross yesterday, we need to consider the possibility of a deeper pull-back, as the last 1D MACD Bearish Cross (April 02), delivered a -6.88% decline. As a result, if the 1D MA50 breaks though, we will take that small loss and go on a short-term sell instead, targeting 38350 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
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Djia
Add long SQQQ May 31st $10.50+ Calls HereI bought long SQQQ $10-$10.50 May 24th to 31st calls this morning, if we hit 5400 i'll add.
The VIX is bouncing as suspected at $12 and the S&P500 wants to dip below and confirm a 5300 fake out which was my bias and the DOW (DJIA) wants to do the same at 40k
bitcoin is faking out above 67500 into an expanded flat pointing to my 63,300-63,500 short term short trajectory
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Short-Term Video Idea#DJIA EASYMARKETS:DOWUSD
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DJIA H4 | Strong bullish momentumThe DJIA (US30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 39,598.96 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 39,250.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 40,045.66 which is a pullback resistance at the all-time high.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
SHILLER P/E RATIO ... Went Higher than 1929!Only Twice in 150 Years of US Equities
has the Shiller PE ratio gone higher than the 1929 TOP
2000 & 2022
The Shiller PE is useful as it smooths out the PE ratio over a 10 year average ...
very useful for forecasting.
The financial markets have been perverted & all know this.
The #FED can only print and save your Assets
after a financial crisis appears on the scene
and when #DEFLATION takes hold.
They're are actively rugging the markets
The FED always creates volatile markets the exact opposite of their mandate
As this is what their shareholder actually want.
US Markets May Rally 60% to 100% On Strong Technical DataI posted a similar video yesterday, but it was taken down because I screwed up the content. So, I'll try to post this video without messing up the content.
The US markets (particularly the NAS100 - as shown in this video) will likely continue to move in a strong bullish price trend - even against the multiple divergences and other technical peak/exhaustion patterns over the next 3 to 4+ years.
Far too many people simply don't understand the dynamics at play right now, with the superheated US economy and the predatory Fed processes creating this parabolic Bullish price move.
Be prepared. Many people will be picking tops for the next 3~4+ years, and you are going to hear a lot of FEAR in their voices. You must attempt to understand the true market dynamics at play and stay away from group-think.
Hope you enjoy this video.
FEDERAL DEBT priced in the DOW JONES is too HIGH!Those dollars that the US government owes must be inflated away!
As paying back 33 Trillion dollars is not feasible in today's version of dollars.
So they must be paid in even more worthless dollar currency units.
If the US government stops spending they will send the US economy into a recession.
They must continue to pump money into the economy and the stock market.
The con job that inflation is under control is a lie.. and we will continue to see higher prices the rest of the decade albeit at a slower rate.
BUT even 2% annual inflation compounded will erode purchasing power quickly as we have seen in the past. And I have charted before.
I believe we will continue to see the stock market ramp up the next two quarters before taking a summer break.
The underlying hidden to most, inflation trend, will continue to inflate revenues and earnings for most stocks going forward.
The bottom line is that Inflation is a FRAUD perpetuated on the people by the Government.
They print and spend the money first, and then the workers get it after beingTAXED and after prices have gone up.
Then they TAX you on the gain in asset prices! :)
So if u can invest in assets that are in wrapped up Tax free vehicles --- seek those out.
#Crypto can be a way to supercharge your returns for periods of time,
but come with inherent, built in volatility ---
most people walk away with, what could have been stories -- rather than life changing returns
Are #Stocks expensive? No measured against M2 money supplyThe 2000 Top was still the "real" peak of the US stock market
Built obviously on the expectation that the internet would change the world and teh global economy.
This highlights how the market foresees the future and how market participants are forward looking.
The #DownJones index is still 50% down form that peak
on this chart you can multiple chart patterns tat have played out previously
HVF's, double top, head & shoulder tops, and inv H&S bottoms
currently in a 22 year continuation inv head and shoulders which is still in progress
my stance is Top in April/May 24 .... downdraft into the election and a run up for 2/3 years into the Giga Uber TOP
DJIA H4 | Potential pullback opportunityDJIA (US30) could fall towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 39,065.38 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 38,500.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 39,598.96 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Dow Jones: Analyzing Technical Signals and Market DynamicsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently surpassed the 39273 level, breaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement threshold, yet remaining below the 78.6% mark. Currently, the price has encountered a Bearish Order Block in a higher timeframe, suggesting the potential for a reversal, particularly given the overbought conditions signaled by both the stochastic indicator and RSI.
Our analysis indicates an opportunity to capitalize on a potential retracement to the previous support area around 38600, presenting an attractive risk-reward scenario.
The convergence of these technical indicators provides a compelling insight into the prevailing market dynamics. There is a growing body of evidence pointing towards a shift in sentiment, with indications of a nascent bearish trend emerging. This assessment is further bolstered by the prospect of the price embarking on a fresh downward trajectory, possibly within the confines of a bearish channel.
In light of these observations, our strategy is geared towards anticipating sustained downward pressure on the price. We remain vigilant for signals that could signify a renewed downturn in the market, underscoring the enduring presence of bearish sentiment in the short term.
US30 Dow Jones: Analysis of Key Technical ConfluencesThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently attained a critical juncture, reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This significant milestone is augmented by the convergence of several key technical factors, notably including the Point of Control (POC) volume and divergence signals observed across various indicators.
The confluence of these technical signals serves as a compelling indication of potential market dynamics. Specifically, there is mounting evidence to suggest the emergence of a new bearish sentiment within the market. This sentiment is further underscored by the possibility of the price initiating a fresh downward trajectory, potentially encapsulated within the confines of a bearish channel.
Given these developments, our analysis is primed to anticipate a continuation of downward pressure on the price. In essence, we are actively monitoring for signals that could herald a renewed push-down in the market, signaling the persistence of bearish sentiment in the near term.
DOW JONES Test of 4H MA200 imminent to decide the trend.Dow Jones (DJI) gave a solid short-term sell signal on the MACD Bearish Cross last time we analyzed it on the 4H time-frame (April 24, see chart below):
Similarly, it is flashing a strong buy signal now after the 0.236 Fibonacci rebound that keeps the price action above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), in similar fashion as September 14 2023. The 4H MACD even completed a Bullish Cross and the next sequence on that fractal is a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. Our target is 38750.
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Falling towards overlap supportDJIA (US30) has made a bearish reaction off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance. Could this index continue falling towards the 1st support?
Pivot: 67,959.86
1st Support: 64,549.56
1st Resistance: 71,123.59
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into overlap resistanceDJIA (US30) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance. Could this index stall around this level before potentially reversing to drop lower?
Pivot: 38,546.69
1st Support: 38,025.73
1st Resistance: 39,042.57
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DOW JONES Sell target hit. When will it reverse?Dow Jones (DJI) hit the 38050 Target that we set on our last bearish call (March 28, see chart below) and broke below Support 1 (February 13 Low) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line):
The price now faces more selling pressure being below two MA periods and with the long-term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 bottom), having considerable downside to give. As we mentioned on our March idea above, the most effective buy entry within this long-term pattern is when the 1D CCI makes the first Higher Low after having broken below the -100.00 oversold barrier.
That is what happened on March 13 2023 and September 22 2023 (even though that sequence had one more Low to give). The most fascinating characteristic of both those corrective Legs was that they both declined by -9.25%. If Dow repeats this decline, we are looking at 36285, which is just above Support 2 but currently exactly where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is.
The latter is our main point of focus and assuming the index will give a dead-cat-bounce now towards th 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we project that it may hit the 1D MA200 around 36900. If that coincides with a 1D CCI Higher Low, it will be in our opinion the most optimal buy entry for the next long-term Bullish Leg, targeting 41000.
Note that the dead-cat-bounces on both previous Bearish Legs, never closed a 1D candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, so that is the parameter that will keep the current correction valid. If we do get a 1D candle close above the 0.618 Fib, it will technically be a pattern invalidation and trend reversal upwards so we will buy the bullish break-out and Target 41000 regardless.
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Rising towards the upper trendline of the bearish channelDJIA (US30) has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 37,672.13
1st Support: 37,164.30
1st Resistance: 38,025.73
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DJIA H4 | Strong bearish momentumDJIA (US30) is exhibiting strong bearish momentum and could potentially extend this current downtrend.
Sell entry is at 37,770.60 which is a potential breakout level ( wait for 1-hour candle to close below 37,770.62 for confirmation ).
Stop loss is at 38,100.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 37,175.41 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
DOW JONES Secret Cycles you didn't know existed!On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view.
To begin with, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the absolute multi-year Support level (since October 2010 only two candle closings below it, March 2020 COVID flash crash and recently the September 2022 inflation bottom). The market deems every pull-back towards it, a buy opportunity with the lowest possible risk.
Since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis, the 1M RSI bottoms on Lower Lows help us classify the multi-month phases into Cycles. The duration of each Cycle since the 1st, has been pretty consistent (39 to 48 months so far).
When the index closes a 1M candle below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the correction towards the 1M MA50 is usually under way. Also there is a striking consistency on the growth of each Cycle. As you can see, with the exception of the first (naturally the most aggressive since it was the start of the recovery after a Bear Cycle), every Cycle sees gains within the range of +70% and +77%.
As a result assuming the new Cycle follows a similar pattern, we can expect a minimum Target of 48850 (+70% from Low) and a Cycle ending on December 2025 (39 months from previous Low). Technically the index should peak around the the start of 2025, entering a volatile period towards the end of the year. This is as close to a projection one can make on such a long-term horizon and with tons of fundamental risks involved.
Where do you think Dow Jones will top at?
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DOW JONES below the 1D MA50 after 5 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent sell entry following our last analysis (March 28, see chart below) as it got rejected and made a bearish reversal exactly where we expected it to:
Last Thursday it even broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in exactly 5 whole months (since November 03 2023)! This is a bearish break-out confirmation signal and we expect a new sell-off soon.
As you can see the former (dotted) Channel Down broke downwards and has given way to a (blue) Channel Down. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has now been turned into Resistance with one confirmed rejection already (April 04).
The Channel Down has fairly symmetrical Bearish Legs so far, -2.36% and -2.20%. Assuming the new will be at a -2.20% minimum, we are expecting a Lower Low at 38200.
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Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementDJIA (US30) could rise towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance. Could this index stall around this level before potentially reversing to drow lower towards the 1st support?
Pivot: 39,042.57
1st Support: 38,560.25
1st Resistance: 39,412.72
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.