DOW 30k! 💨After the election results, the Dow jumped to new record highs on Monday, marking its high just shy of the 30k milestone. Our primary expectation is a breach of the 30k mark and a continuation of wave iii in orange. To confirm the outbreak, the Dow must break above the 30k mark. Should the bears send the market on a detour, and the support at 28781 is broken, we expect the further downward movement towards the next support line at 27648. One way to play the current scenario is to place entry orders above and below the mentioned decision levels. The upcoming days will be filled with suspension!
Djia
PYPL Still Above Major Support LevelsPaypal looking bullish into the election. Price is still trading above some major support levels at 171.00 & 164.00 respectively. Look to buy into major support levels as risk/reward becomes very attractive. If the price manages to consolidate below 162.00 cut losses quickly. Any consolidation below 162.00 will be considered very bearish.
DJIA - double top in progressThe DJIA index after the previous slump has retraced back to the bearish gap from February. The gap seems to be a strong area of resistance which has stopped DJIA rally twice.
As a consequence, we may expect a potential double top pattern to be formed. So if the 26536 low is broken we could expect a further downward movement toward the textbook target located at 24191. Near that level, to 50% Fibo retracement is also located.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Riding on the downfall of 900 points fall in DJIAFor those who have been following me for a while, you would be able to spot this selling opportunity last night.
I expect the gap to be filled up before we see more selling resume and revisit 26,724 area.
Please note that a rebound is possible after the gap area is filled up so watch for bullish or bearish signal before you take your next action. Sometimes, we let our initial wins and become a little over confident.
A look at the Day chart would tell you that the main trend line is still super bullish so this is a short term sell ONLY.
Those who are not comfortable shorting and if you have not shorted yesterday, please stay on the sideline , watch my updates for the next long opportunity.
According to CNBC sources -Strategist blamed the selling on the surge in coronavirus cases, election uncertainty and the fact that Congress could not agree on stimulus spending.
Now, like I said before, news are meant to be sensational and most of the time negative. Trend trading focus on the chart and one need not be too bothered with the news.
ridethepig | SPX into elections and beyond📍 SPX - into the elections and beyond
This waterfall is a demonstration of how and where a decline in confidence on the risk front should be punished.
The lust to expand equities higher is rather less here than one might suspect at first look. With the unsurprising hurdle of a contested election in US, buyers are threatened by an obstruction in democracy and Schwab transferring his influence across the Atlantic.
The only valid plan here is to look for sells and be prepared for a waterfall into November. Sharp speculators are not buying at these levels and looking to set in motion a new economic cycle (yet), first we must finish the correction.
ridethepig | Dow and Volatility into the elections and beyondThis diagram consists of my conception of the election positional play and continues into my treatment of the end-game in an economic cycle.
1️⃣ The reciprocal relationship between risk tolerance on the one hand and a contested election on the other.
As we will soon notice, my dear followers, my conception of the next few weeks and months is largely based on the knowledge which we have painstakingly collected since 2019.
2️⃣ A house of cards.
I started picking up on the alarm bells in October last year.
My VIX models were starting to warn of a +500% move towards 85.
A sweep of the lows under 12 to capitulate any soft bulls would force put covering.
This was all done in Q419 before a contraction in globalisation entered into play from Q120.
You can check for yourself here the timestamps
…and oh surprise surprise…
85 was the exact HIGH of the FIRST COVID CHAPTER.
🔑 Pay attention to what happens next
Sure the move from 12 to 85 might have been easy to spot
- We tested it to the pipette ✅
- Buyers were exhausted and found a valid place to cover ✅
I want to highlight something very important, as you have all seen the flows live in advance....Let’s go into some details and leave make the picture crystal clear:
If you are wondering how...?
First if we look vix from 85 as we originally did, we can see the October 2019 highs are open.
Obviously, these are same levels when my models began to pick up the alarm bells.
Here is where things start making sense
Been in absolutely no doubt.
The biggest sharks in the game are repositioning.
Remember, VIX ⬆️ gives us the green light to sell risk in absolute terms .
As you can all see we continued to track the flows together across other asset classes.
In this case, the move was not without venom for European Equities.
Using the 2020 map for DAX for reference:
Perpetual bonds are the Trojan horse for government defaults. Insiders know what was cooking and wanted to unwind German Equity exposure outguessing the ‘Green New Deal’.
Well we are back to square one.
Equities completing the retrace and we are set for Covid Chapter Two.
Professional portfolios are going to come under severe stress in the coming weeks, even the most advanced players will be tested to their limits as they all have the same ingredients.
$GM the battle of faith$GM has always been a good indicator of $DJIA and the way it could move in the future. Last week swing high in this stock is highly unusual taking into an account indebtness and GDP fall and consumers uncertainty invoked by COVID-19. 38-38.4 is that magic line this stock needs to cross above or te be rejected from. It will be good for trading.
DOW JONES Recurring bullish pattern on the 1W time-frame?The Channel Up since June has fairly the same basic structure (even though more aggressive) than the one from March to September 2019, which led to the pre-COVID All Time High.
That pattern ended with a Lower High than created a Triangle, which eventually broke to the upside to the ATH. Dow Jones made that Lower High last week. See also how the RSI consolidated during both Channels.
The index has already defended the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) with a perfect bounce last month. Is this Triangle ready to break to new Highs next month? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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US Presidential Election Year Pattern 04-08-12-16Did anyone notice that the Covid19 Crash of 2020 fell to the level where Trump was elected back in November 2016?
I thought it would be interesting to use the "bars pattern" tool to copy the US Presidential Election Year price action of the $DJI Dow Jones Industrials and paste it to the end of 2019 to see how we are doing compared to the last 4 elections. I'll add some more after I publish this.
I hope you can find patterns in price action to help you find insights into market opportunities. Every day I am searching for ideas in the Key Hidden Levels Chat room and posting them as I see them.
Tim 11:30AM EST 10/20/20
ridethepig | Buyers in Difficulty📌 A timely update to the S&P weekly chart, where we can see clearly sellers are provoking the breakdown into some sort of waterfall.
All Global Equity charts look very similar with the traditional struggle between the defending fast money crowd and the more MT and LT sharks who are aware that the momentum is stalling and are itching to load at cheaper levels.
What is becoming clearer by the day is that Fed has blown a bubble which is exposed to a second round of lockdowns and a contested election will prevent any from hanging on. Here sharp speculators will have to bite the bullet and hold shorts while looking to reload full positions at the highs. Tracking closely 3,000 and 2,900 as the next areas of interest.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
DOW JONES The striking bullish consistency of the 1D MA50DJIA is trading on a Channel Up on the 1D chart since late May. This pattern has made two exact Higher Highs and Higher Lows. I want to talk about the importance of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) not just within this Channel but even before.
As you see since May 04, the 1D MA50 has been tested 8 times. 7 out of those 8, it held and initiated a rise (at least of +4.00%). The only time it failed was on September 21, but still the price made a rebound on the Higher Low of the Channel Up, keeping it still valid.
The Lower Highs trend-lines play a significant role here. Even before the Channel Up, when Dow Jones broke above a Lower Highs trend-line after the 1D MA50 held, a very strong rally started.
Do you think history will repeat itself? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Most recent DOW JONES idea:
DJIA REJECTION - SHORT TERM BEARISH BUT WILL RETEST PREVIOUS HIDJIA REJECTION - SHORT TERM BEARISH
Short Target As Indicated
Then I'm Expecting It To Retest Previous Highs
*Still On A Upward Channel And Showing A Bullish Sentiment
*Be Wary - Could Be Forming A Distribution Pattern
*My Bias Is Still Upside - Investors Showed A Lot Of Interest (Value) From September Crash
LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK! 🧐
💡 IF YOU LIKE MY IDEA, PLEASE HELP AND SUPPORT MY CHANNEL BY
HITTING THE THUMBS UP, LEAVING A COMMENT AND FOLLOWING 💯
*You are Welcome to REQUEST CHART ANALYSIS at Anytime! Simply Comment Down Below or DM Me :)
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⚠ DISCLAIMER:
Trading Involves High Risk! I Share My Trading Positions And Ideas With You For FREE
BUT Please Be Responsible For All Your Actions.
This Chart is Used for Educational Purposes Only And NOT A Recommendation to Buy or Sell the Asset.
SPX500 to ATHsEquities will only continue up through and after the election. If stimulus is kept until after, then it was all a ploy to keep the market up no matter the winner. This was a major, pump and dump.
POSITION YOURSELF TO SERIOUSLY CAPITALIZE.
Don't forget the dollar is meant to strongly devalue from neverending QE.
DOW JONES broke above the 1D MA50. Buy Signal.Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the 1D MA50, crossing it as a Resistance for the first time since April 27. Also the MACD formed a Bullish Cross. The past 3 occurrences initiated a rally.
Target: 29200 (the Resistance).
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