Djia
Taylor Technique ... Raschke/Connors 80/20 ES_F YM_FA little something to put in your toolbag...
The fade this morning falls in line with the Taylor Technique for swimg trade fades of previous days highs/lows when the previous day opens in its lower/higher 10% and closes in its higher/lower 90%.
When this occurs the retest of the previous day hi/lo is likely and IF they fail to hold a fade is likely.
Raschke & Connor modified it to 80 & 20% i believe to create more trading ops. Google it.
I track these levels on a daily basis with a fib tool marked at 80/20 (yellow lines)
Yesterday the ES & YM both opened in their respective lower 20% and closed in their respective 80% The RED line is the previous day high.
Note the YM tested and faded while the ES was unable to retest setting up the bearish reversal resulting in an intial 250+ pt ym and 30+ pt es move.
I trade the ym but watch the es for signals. These may have occurred on the nq & rty as well but I dont track them.
Unfilled gaps on the DJI, is Mnuchin right?Should we be filling up our pockets with long calls and riding the Funny Munny train?
The SPX is bouncing right along on the Vegas waves towards likely levels of $3k-$3.2k in the next few days. Interesting twist is that Memorial Day is coming up and US markets will be closed Monday. If buyers evaporate at higher PE ratios than at all time highs, while we are still more than 10% down overall, it make a bit of sense. But what makes sense these days? Consult your risk tolerance rules.
DOW IS IN RANGE FOR LAST TWO DAYS WILL IT BREAK TODAY !!COMPARING MY YESTERDAY STATEMENTS WITH REAL MOVE.
1.In point no.2 I shared that market is trading in no trade zone can not decide any side position. You can see it spend all day in small range not giving chance to earn both sides. That is why I said no trading area.
2. Now I have been saying since last Friday that short is my biased for market but market is not providing set up to go short side. You can see in fig. I made a green circle which is pointing two candle formation that price is rejected in first candle and weak bulls tried to take price out of pink color zone. But in last two hrs. bulls again tried but could not.
3. You can see left side of chart on same zone two days back first rejection of price. This is providing that bears are eager to get price control from bulls. Until and unless price breach the upper end of red dotted zone we can not consider strong bears entry. This is four hrs chart. Now I show you lower time frame of 5 min in lower box. See what is happening . I feel local distribution is going on showed in two green vertical lines. when this process complete price will start to move down side. Till then price will remain range bound.
4. Stock is game of probability so we find good set up in best probability side. So other side move can come if market break Z point swing then I will be bullish. Rest market is supreme will decide today.
YOGESH VATShttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6zAWhw4m/
Fundementals, The Election, The Fed, Bonds and the ProphecySo Everyone is bearish and for good reason; Unemployment and fundamentals loom over this market but everyone forgets the Bond market and the FED who are pushed by the republicans and Donald Trump, above anyone else, to push the stock market higher. They are pushing the bond guys to buy this market and are printing all the cash necessary to keep it going (stimulus checks and loans). There is also that Simpson's prophesy looming in the background about how DT is going to bankrupt the US which may actually play out. So what if this is how it happens because what's the alternative, the stock market does what the least likely is going to happen and right now it either goes sideways forever or it goes up. Going down with all this cash floating around seems unlikely but it can happen and many bears have tried believe me. So I see a stock market bubble forming, at least for a short period of time. I do see another crash but only after things actually look grim again like a second big wave in November but right now it is fated to keep going up because of these factors in play.
PS: Maybe this is the Top.
Ascending channel DJIA YM approaching previous post COVID19 topsPrica action riding ascending channel into previous tops. Possible test of and fade of any of these 3 highs (yellow lines)
HAS DOW STARTED ITS JOURNEY TO DOWN SIDE SEE YORSELF !!!COMPARING MY SATEMENTS FOR LAST TWO POSTS WITH THE ACTUAL MOVE IN DJI
1. In yesterday post point no 2. I clearly mentioned that if dow opens gap down . As it opened slightly gap down, one should wait for price breching red dotted zone to short . In monday post I clearly mentioned that swing high Z is the stop loss for shorts positional trade. That high is still intact. Both days post are attached for those who really want correct insight for this index. They can check all details to understand the present phase of dow.
2. As you can see price is still above the red dotted line so this is no trading zone for positional new traders . Those who are already in trade can put sl of Z point swing high. Now for new traders, for positional trades , let price break the lower end of zone and it sustains 30 mins after breaking then positional shorts can be initiated. Trend change to upwards direction when price breach Z swing high. Rest market will decide.
YOGESH VATS
DJIA: Monthly - Targeting 966 in 2020This idea is based on the previous original idea of a -90% market drop in the year 2020
DAX30: Weekly - Long-term chart targeting 1566 till year 2020
The market will reset this year and drop -90%
Dow Jones range bound....for nowAppears to be at the upper end of the range. The probability for a drop is higher imo unless it crosses the upper line.
The closer is July, the closer is 18500?I believe that the FED and U.S. Treasury are doing pretty good to support economy with their moves. However, I made a very simple observation on what DJ path might be in case economic and Covid scenarios get worse. I based my observation on a series of increasing tops(1,2,3) started after the March crash and not followed by another absolute top(4). This could be consider a first weakness of the V-shape recovery. I also see the crossover between a 20 SMA and 60 SMA. The closer we get to July with Q2s, the close we get to 18500 again ?
Dow Jones Industrial Average - Short OpportunityDJI might have some percent upside, but the market is starting to show weakness. This recession is just starting. Here is a shorting idea.
GET READY TO SEE TREND CHANGE IN DOW FROM MONDAY ONWARDS TRADE PLAN FOR 18/5/20( MONDAY)
1. The chart I am showing is the daily chart of DJI . Here currently dow is in local distribution phase , where last leg of upwards move is going on. In fact intermediate corrective structure last leg.
2. This is irregular corrective pattern whose last leg is expected to go in red dotted upper micro zone . This the point where this local phase of distribution will end with the completion of c leg of intermediate correction is expected to finish. It may be possible that price would move from lower end of red dotted zone to down side.
3. When this sort of structure gets completed , then with trend gets started that is from point Z is down. Therefore, as per my analysis dow will see fall from Monday on wards. As you all know stock market is game of probability nothing can be 100% sure. So some conditions also apply with this analysis. lets us discuss them in detail.
4. You can see in fig. I made an arrow of green color pointing towards up side. In fact that is showing one condition here. The condition is If price breaches the upper end of micro red dotted zone and comes back in next one hour with out breaking swing of upper side and the day candle closes in red zone, then this zone will remain intact. And positional shorts can be taken with the stop loss of upper swing high. with the first target of blue support line.
5. On the other hand , on breaching price from upper band of red zone and price do not cone back in next one hour of trading then sentiments of shorts will change to longs. Rest market will decide . Price is supreme.
YOGESH VATS
