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The Orthodox Broadening Top - Is a Crash Around The Corner?The 4 charts seen in this post are all from different time periods, all the same pattern, and all have the same result (except present day). Ladies and Gents 3.01% - I present the Orthodox Broadening Top (Parabolic Edition). This is a simple pattern - high, low, higher high, lower low, higher high, crash. The 1st chart (top left) is the Dow leading up to the massive crash in 1929 and the Great Depression. I'd like to point out that 1905-1920 was a sideways secular bear market before the run up (more on that in a few). I have noted years on the chart (all of them that aren't present day) where the chart seems to correlate with today's. The 2nd chart on the top right is Silver -0.20% . After that last spike, from high to low, it seen a crash slightly above 72% occur. The 3rd chart (bottom right) is the Dow back in 1959-1966. This was leading into a 16 year sideways secular bear market (like the one from 1905-1920) that was from 1966-1982. The bottom left is the final chart, which is present day. I wanted to point out that a secular bear market predated the crash in '29, and we had a secular bear market most recently (66-82) and haven't had one since. Could a crash be around the corner? If history tells us anything - that or a secular bear market seem to be coming sooner than later.
TVC:SILVERShort
by J-Streak
6
Bear Market Bounce? Descending Triangle Short TargetI think the pattern is more evident here on the Dow Jones, when compared to SPX. The next leg down (when measured from peak to baseline) has us right at "bear market" territory. From the current high (open/close) a close beneath 21293.368 puts us below the 20% threshold, and while we may dip to this area, I'm not so certain we will close a session beneath this spot (not yet, anyways). I see two possible scenarios, the 1st is if the market caves fast and we begin the next leg immediately, the 2nd includes a possible bounce within the descending triangle formation before completion of the pattern. I would like to point out, that if there is a bounce at the 22.5k area which retraces higher than 50% of the immediate fall, that would indicate a possible reversal due to the weakness of the pattern breakout. The latest I see this playing out by is mid-June, though it could happen at any time before then.
DJ:DJIShort
by J-Streak
Head Shoulder Ratio: Worst-Case Scenario? Let's Hope So (Part 2)So I have been tracking this pretty extensively, just haven't posted my findings (which up to this point have been spot on) until now... Why? Because this is such a far fetched scenario, I feel in the rare event this does happen - if I don't have some kind of proof that I caught it before-hand no one will believe me lol... Now, this is part 2 which is the 30 minute chart, to show the details a bit more... The weekly shows a big nasty bearish engulfing candle, which means these last 2 weeks were simply a giant bear flag... I am expected the next trendline to be tested next, possibly another bear flag, and the testing the trend line at the bottom... Why that specific spot? Well that's where it gets interesting... The peak of the market formed a head and shoulders pattern which was abruptly followed by a very nasty spill... This current bear flag looks to be setting up a very similar head and shoulders as well... So, just playing around, I measured the top HnS from low to high, then did the same with the current pattern (actually the low from March 1st) to get a size ratio... I then took this ratio, measured the 1st fall (to the lowest low, not the 1st low) and applied it to see where it would show another possible fall based on the size of the bigger pattern... Well, to my surprise it landed square on top of the 2015/2016 market correction - which is a very likely support area if it were to fall... Not only that, but it is also right where a major trend line from the bottom of the last bear market in 2009 is sitting at... Is this a coincidence? If so, it's a pretty big one lol... Even with the current low on March 2nd we are still placed right there in the same general support area... I think Monday will see a pop and fade before the reversal and what I expect to be a monster plunge to 22k... So needless to say - I will definitely be purchasing put options into the spike of the right shoulder...
DJ:DJIShort
by J-Streak
The Dow's run to 265 offers a great opportunity for fast cashAfter breaking the symmetrical triangle last Friday, the DJIA's run to 26500 looks likely. I expect a very good next two week; starting with a price target this week of 26000, and 26500 next week. It is fair to say that the Dow could face a lot of pressure from its January high. Therefore I believe that the price will be dancing between 265-266 for a week before a break-out occurs, and then, I think that a consolidation will follow. I will be trading it this way: 1. I will buy DIA Calls with a Mar 16 Exp and sell them when the index reach 26500; 2. I will wait for a drop to hopefully 26000 before re-entering the trade but this time with a Apr 20 Exp. My target for this one will be 27000. I will wait a bit after that to see where the market is heading. Good trading everyone!
TVC:DJILong
by tipere445
Dow Jones dropped More Than 600 Points in Two Days. What's Next?Here is our forecasting report in the video format on Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 Jan 2018. Please enjoy. Good trading NinjaSingapore 31 Jan 2018 DISCLAIMER Our research materials are provided for information purposes only. They should not be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The research materials are prepared for general circulation and general information only. They do not take into account the specific investment objectives, investment knowledge and experience and financial situation of any recipient. Investors seeking to buy or sell any securities discussed or recommended in our research materials, should seek independent financial advice relating thereto and make his/her own appraisal of the tax or other financial merits of the investment. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without prior notice. Our research materials are based on information from various sources believed to be reliable. Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that such information is not misleading, we make no guarantee, representation or warranty, expressed or implied as to its accuracy, adequacy or completeness. We do not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or incidental, special or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use or reliance on the information in our research materials.
DJ:DJI
by NinjaSingapore
CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE IN DJI - 1H CHARTHey Traders, Just wanted to pull this simple analysis on DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average) We had an impulse and a corrective structure, I am sure we can get a brakeout soon, watch for that and then go long for a short term trade. - Hey Traders, Simplemente compartir este analisis en DJI (Índice Down Jones) Tuvimos un impulso y una corrección. Estoy seguro que pronto el mercado rompéra alcista, estad al tanto y en la ruptura de la estructura buscad una oportunidad en largo a corto plazo. Carlos
TVC:DJILong
by ccerezo11
YM1! & DXY @ Weekly @ "operating under cloud of uncertainty""it`s been a long time as we`re coming" & "theres no turning back now ..." (www.youtube.com) as the blues - under the clintons (with their fake code red policy) takin over the US - after the cold war! By the way, paint it on the wall , if u don`t wanna buying it ;) After Bush junior and Obama, meanwhile Trump will be right red president, with the best result since years !!! More isn`t possible, hardly !!! The takin` over spoils my imagination (www.youtube.com) also :flushed: ... How ever, enough (true red or even fake blue) raps - let me show you a few calculations :P DXY raised just less than 3% & the YM1! just less 8% - last two years! Form this point of view (bigger picture - even takin over of the republicans while the midterm elections and last president elections) we can`t talk from a rally! It`s much more somthing like a come out from the blue water under Obama & this all Anti WalLStreet Movement (under Sanders). If the republicans (under Trump) the market not disappointed - lower taxes, better jobs & more fiscal stimulus - and the fed (under Yellen) don`raise the rates to fast 2017, the market is starting to anticipating and prisíng this (future) in. "No trace of euphoria - Rather, relief that we`re in power back again. And this more powerfull as we all were able to imagine!" But let`s leave that left behind, that topic we already had ;) Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decission ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a big picture analysis - no recommendation !!! Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards Aaron
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Devise2Day
YM1! @ 1h @ in front, while & after FOMC press conferencelet me first clarify: "i got cold feets traders - & closed my both long positions in AXP & GS"! I am thinking that we will can buying both shares a little bit cheaper, in the next few days :shades: ... In the YM1! i am still long, not only `cause the sentiment is by far not so euphoric even like in the banks & financials. And by the way the chart is also looking much better! Not so fast and furios - and much more constructive! I`ve made the effort, that everybody understands what i mean - and why i am slightly optimistic - not sensitive - still restrained (kosher) bullish :) As long the consolditaion Box holds between 19605 & 19431 Points i don`t see any reason the get in panic about the future - in the YM1! - in the US Major Equities - in the US Blue Chip shares. Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decission ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) Best regards Aaron
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Devise2Day
Dow to get 23k before crashMorning guys, Wishing you all a happy weekend - I will not be free much this weekend so wanted to share this chart this morning. The eurusd call was completely as expected which was brilliant for us all, please see the related idea if you have not already plenty more opportunity before we reach parity. There are still plenty of people who continue to think inflation is bad and rising interest rates. Deflation has done nothing to help the European economy. All they keep doing is reading their text books from school. The Dow has made a thrust up to the late 19k level. We can see technically, the market has closing resistance at 19576 level with the next level up at the 19731 area. I suspect that the majority of the retail public will start to jump in after 23k is exceeded on the Dow. They will keep expecting this to "end any day now" and we may yet get that Phase Transition after getting through the 23,000 level. The highest PE Ratio took place in 2009 during the crash - not a bull market. Why? Smart money just wanted to park in blue chips. There are times when you just want to park your money when banks and bonds are not a place to be. Volatility will rise next week, we could pause, retest support then turn back up into January. There is a risk that we then have a correction. Naturally these moves present great investment opportunities, more on this to come.
DJ:DJIShort
by TheBanker
6