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Djianalysis

The Final Phase Of The Bull Market Begins (Fractal Update)My previous posts on this subject were much longer, but I'll keep this short and sweet. You can check out my other posts (linked below) for more in-depth analysis and my overall perspective. I actually DID NOT want to see the stock market continue up here. It's just further confirmation that we're still following this fractal from 1929. I drew the yellow speculative line a while ago, showing that if we continue up from here, we can indeed reach as high as 40-50,000, even by Fall 2020, when we could also hit the long term channel resistance (red). It's interesting that this may easily coincide with the U.S. Presidential election. This, I believe, is a seller's rally. I expect the DJI to eventually AT LEAST test the long term trendline (purple) and the 200 Month Moving Average (light blue). A catastrophic financial collapse could result in the loss of the long term trendline and a decline just as severe as the Great Depression. The technical setup is there for this to happen, but the question is: What are the underlying similarities and the warning signs that have led to such similar market behavior? Feel free to discuss. Here's a closer view and comparison. You can see certain features marked for structural comparison: Anyway, this is not financial advice. As always, my posts are speculative and based purely upon my own opinions and observations. -Victor Cobra
TVC:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
4
ridethepig | Coronavirus Risk-OffOn the Equities front sentiment is starting to shift once again towards the negative side with offloading being done at the highs. After clearing Powell focus is shifting back towards the pressures on earnings from Coronavirus and spillovers, not expecting much more room to the topside in the immediate term. Investors do not like the headlines from China with cases jumping sharply. Tracking closely USDJPY as a benchmark for the FX board to measure the reaction in risk. 110.2x remains strong resistance and creates a strong drag on Equities moving further. The factory closes are going to trigger a round of default risks for Chinese factories. School closures are being extended into March while the Chinese government remains closed until the final week in Feb. This all has yet to translate into the data, markets will need to price the additional risk premium. Don't forget to keep the likes coming, we can continue to update the intraday charts if we get enough interest in the short-term flows!
UShort
by ridethepig
Trading Pathways Analysis of DJI H4 Chart The outlined white arrow pathway is the predicted pathway that the DJI H4 will follow in the coming days or weeks. Using my unique charting methods, I have been able to arrive at HIGH PROBABILITY turning points where DJI H4 will turn. PLEASE NOTE THE ABOVE ANALYSIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE NOT DIRECT INSTRUCTIONS TO TRADE AND ANY LOSS INCURRED BY FOLLOWING THIS ANALYSIS IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. Eiseprod of Trading Pathways
DJ:DJIShort
by Trading-Swing-Pathways
DJI Future Map - A Correction is Imminent$DJI has been on an absolutely MASSIVE bull run since the collapse back in 2008-2009; a decade ago! We all know what goes up must come down though and the DJI is due for another +50% correction. This chart is on the Weekly. I usually prefer using the Day charts however I noticed some interesting trends that I hoped to share. 2008-2009 -The correction in 2008 was 55% from top to bottom -The RSI at the peak was slightly Overbought so a little surprised the price tanked -7784 points 2016-2018 -The 1.618 ratio (19008) took 8 years to be hit -The 2.618 ratio (26793) took 1 year, 2016-2017 -The RSI at the 2.618 level was 95 – Super Overbought which made sense to see the beginning of a huge correction however that wasn’t the case. A double top formed at the same level and then - the price corrected roughly -5000 points, -18-20% towards the end of 2018-2019 -This correction pinged off possibly the 1.702-1.786 level (21712) from the first FIB (08-09) -The RSI was once again just slightly Overbought at 70-72 level -Price has continued to climb due to various political measures; volatility between Trump and China (Tariffs) as well as the beginning of the Impeachment talk -The FED also injecting the ‘NOT QE’ funds into the REPO arena has stimulated the economy as well -The current RSI is at 67 so it’s getting once again very close to those Overbought levels that haven’t been met since a year ago when the correction occurred -Trump officially Impeached on December 18th and the $DJI keeps pumping Beyond I can’t predict the future but based on my FIB mapping, I’m expecting the possibility of a massive recession/depression type correction to be made when the 3.618 (34577) level is met. This is based on the FIB calculation from 2008-2009. The current movements are lining up quite nicely with this FIB chart and the new FIB chart if calculated from the future ‘top’ indicates that we will see a re-tracement to the 0.618 (26627) level and in my opinion ultimately back down to the 1.618 (13761) level where I believe a good amount of resistance will be met. This is a negative 60% drop! In the event 2.618 (896) level is met (worse than a Depression) that’s a negative 96% dump. I dunno if this will happen, but my guess is that we'll see this drop in-between 2021-2022.
TVC:DJIShort
by tpsnb
Why I'm Rooting For A Stock Market Crash I think we're about to end a 90 year cycle for global markets, meaning that we could get a crash similar in magnitude to the Great Depression. There are just too many technical sell signals to ignore, and fundamentally there is no reason for the market to continue rising if data shows that growth is slowing down. Both indexes are well above their long term trends, the DJI is at a long term trendline resistance, and we have a glaring bearish divergence on the monthly oscillators. All large market crashes in history were preceded with a bearish divergence on the monthly chart. This is when price makes a higher high, but the oscillator makes a lower high, showing lack of confidence in the move. I've even drawn those out for your viewing pleasure. On the recent high, we can observe what is arguably the largest bearish divergence the stock market has sever seen, even when compared with The Great Depression! Check it out: Above, I drew what could easily happen to the DJI if it breaks down. We're now even further from all our moving averages AND the timeframe is longer. What this means is that it may take us at least 4 years to even reach bottom, and by that time, the Dow Jones may have declined back towards 10,000 or below. I think it does need to test the long term uptrend, which hasn't happened since 1982. We're long overdue for an extended period of stagnation, in my opinion. Aside from indicators, there's also this fractal that I've been talking about for a year now. On this speculative chart, I outlined a possible move towards 40,000 or above, but we may actually never get up there, given the size of this divergence. The higher we go, I think the larger the drop will be. The market has been cannibalized by big tech, and supported by lazy and complacent consumers. Suicide and drug addiction has exploded in the United States over the last decade, and this is because we have a population that doesn't have the resources to take care of itself. All they can do is buy. And buy on credit, obviously. Would a stock market crash make things worse? Perhaps in the short term, but I argue that this kind of "shakeup" is exactly what our disillusioned population needs. Something like that would provide more incentive to make change, and for people to really fight for their families and each other's lives. I think a stock market crash would mean we would finally have the opportunity to make headway as a species. Rising market valuations lead to complacency, which leads to lack of policy change and the neglect of important issues like the wealth disparity and climate disaster. A big collapse would finally get people thinking ACTIVELY - and we'd be able to begin a new cycle with hopefully some positive direction. We must also be careful, because events like this can also lead to violence and the rise of fascism. Arguably, we're already seeing a rise in fascism on BOTH ends of the political spectrum. But these unstable periods also allow for art and culture to flourish in ways they haven't in quite some time. New opportunities for music, film, and visual art may present themselves, for people who need communities and activities to pass the time. Most people would probably agree that we're not seeing any sort of artistic Renaissance right now. Anyway, that's it from me. I'm really curious to see if something like this ends up playing out. Linked below are my other write-ups on the stock market, including where I discuss a fractal I noticed in the Dow Jones. This is not financial advice! This represents my opinion and one version of reality that may or may not be substantiated in truth. I like think I do my best to speak the truth, but I'm only a guy with an imagination. I do love to speculate though. -Victor Cobra
SP:SPXShort
by VictorCobra
10