Situation DJI end of 5.3.2019 SHORT Resistance not brokenAs i wrote in the chart
the resistance line at 25880 (nearly) is to beat for long.
For today the bulls havent had enough power to kill it.
That seems to be at the moment that situation is still short
but we have a chance for a long change if that resistance will be took out from the market.
On the other hand if the next days the come back above this line will not come true
that a clear sign of weakness and we shall see more trend to the downside
Djiashort
Situation DJI 1HR 5.3.2019 12:30 NYTIts exactly as described in the older publish from today morning
DJI comes to that the short trendline resistance (Orange color) and go south at the moment.
But that is to watch carefully. maybe we will have later today or tomorrow
a jump above this line.
If that will be the setup short will be going wrong.
But at the moent its still short.
SHORT Dow Jones might have topped out around 24860 levelsThe Dow Jones turned bearish yesterday, indicating that a meaningful top could be in place at 24860 levels, but be prepared for yet another high around 25100 levels as well. Kindly note that a major price resistance is seen at 26000 levels, which is potential Wave (2) termination as labelled on the chart view here, and prices should ideally stay below that, to keep the bearish structure intact. Also note that a resistance trend line is passing close to 25000 levels, which is converging with fibonacci 0.786 resistance of the drop between 26000 and 21800 levels respectively. Believe it or not, the 24860 to 25100 region could prove to be a strong resistance zone and a bearish reversal cannot be ruled out.
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This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Dow is at a fibonacci confluence around 24000 levels!The Dow Jones hits fibonacci resistance at confluence around 24000 levels. It could just be a matter of time, before bears take control back and continue lower, as Wave iii progresses. Believe it or not, the wave counts are clear as highlighted here, and a potential higher degree Wave (3) has been unfolding since the 26000 levels. Furthermore, a lower degree wave iii extension could be potentially unfolding at the moment, since 24800 highs. If the above structures hold good, ideally we should see prices remain below 24800 levels and broadly below 26000 levels going forward. A safe trading strategy still remains on the south side with potential risk at 26000 and targeting below 21800 respectively.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Dow might be unfolding an extended Wave iii within Wave (3)?The Dow Jones inched higher to 24000 levels yesterday before closing at 23879 levels in the spot segment. If the earlier wave counts discussed were correct, the Wave iv projection stands invalid for now since prices penetrated Wave i termination at 23881 levels. As discussed yesterday, the structure still continues to remain bearish and in fact a lower degree wave iii could be still unfolding as a potential extension. Please note that the recent boundary that is being worked out could be between 26000 and 21800 levels and the rally is seen to be stalling close to fibonacci 0.618 resistance at 23662 levels. Also note that the rally from 21800 through 24000 is just a counter trend (3 waves) and a bearish confirmation here could resume lower again.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Dow Jones Wave iv finally in place at 23675 levels ?The Dow Jones managed to rally and close higher yesterday, making intraday highs at 23675 levels. It seems that the corrective rally (3 waves) that began from 21800 levels earlier might have terminated at 23675 levels, just ahead of 24000 as discussed earlier. We could still label this lower top as a potential Wave iv termination, and until prices remain below 24000 levels, a sharp 5 waves decline can be expected. It could either be an impulse drop or an ending diagonal but the termination point could be at least below 21800 levels going forward. The higher degree wave structure also remains intact for now with Waves (1) and (2) in place at 24122 and 26000 levels respectively and Wave (3) into progress now. If the above structure holds true, we could see fresh lows below 21800 levels.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Dow Jones still carving Wave iv, within Wave (3) lowerThe Dow Jones is seen carving out Wave iv at a lower degree with Wave (3) as labelled on the daily chart view here. Believe it or not, the rally on Friday which saw Dow Jones closing on a higher note at 23430 levels, should not be considered as a change in trend. It could still be carving out a wave iv, as a potential zigzag and resume lower anytime soon. If the above structure should hold, prices should ideally stay below the 24000 mark (please note wave iv ideally stays away from wave i termination) and resume lower towards 21800 levels. Please also note that the 38% fibonacci retracement of the entire drop between 26000 through 21800 levels is also passing through 23400 levels, which could be potential termination of wave iv. Overall bearish bias remains until prices stay below 24000 levels.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Dow Jones Wave (3) still in progress below 21400?The Dow Jones produced an intraday rally towards 23327 levels yesterday but it still remains vulnerable to turn lower one more time and print below 21400 levels. Looking at the wave counts, the Dow Jones seems to have completed Waves (1) and (2) at 24120 and 26000 levels respectively. Since then Wave (3) has been in progress lower and has produced 4 waves. The 4th wave might have terminated at 23381 levels last week and if this holds true, we could witness wave v lower towards 21000 levels, to complete a higher degree Wave (3). Also please note that if the above structure should hold valid, prices should remain below 24000 levels, which is wave i termination point as presented on the chart view here. Overall bearish momentum should remain until prices stay below 24000 levels.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Dow Jones ready to drop below 21400 levels now?The Dow Jones is progressing well into its Wave (3) at a higher degree as labelled here. Within the 3rd wave, a lower degree wave iv was unfolding last week and we had discussed the possibility of its termination around 23200/300 levels. Last Friday, Dow Jones managed to hit 23365 levels intraday and closed around 23000 levels as seen on the chart displayed here. It could be a potential wave iv termination and prices could resume lower from here below 21400 levels. If the above structure holds true, prices should remain below 23370 levels and bears in control from here on. Once Wave (3) is terminated lower, it would be interesting to see if Dow Jones turns higher again. At least for now, the bearish pressure remains against 24000 levels.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
distribution on Weekly chartAll I have to say is.
R.I.P US economy.
I don't care about the fundamentals only that the effects of the fundamentals are forecasted into price.
Price tells mee all I need to know about the fundamentals and I don't even need to look at the news to tell you that we're in for a rough time.
Look so very like Wyckoff distribution on the weekly.
6monthly chart looks like a super bearish inverted hammer and tweezer top (albet 2 more months to go on this current candle)
1 monthly chart again showing me signs of a weakening trend, simple bearish divergences on all 3 of my oscillators, RSI, fast and slow all in tandem, stars are aligning.
2W, Weekly again all are looking weak.
Technically, we're still considered to be "bullish" since the bullish market structure is not yet invalidated (recent swing low has remained intact).
But what's worrying for the bulls is that on the weekly and 2W chart RSI has failed just below 70 (the upper limit of bullish territory, from what I've seen RSI divergence SFPs forming between 60-70 is bloody terrifying.) is scaring me. On the monthly chart, the fast oscillator just failed at the 0 line, that's very scary again.
Technically we're not bearish yet, but unless I see otherwise, I'm going to be a contrarian and say we're bearish.
feel free to open up the indicators to see what I'm talking about.
targets marked on the chart.
DJI at top of wedge!DJI is at a strong resistance and the top of a wedge! We can assume the price will respect the wedge and target the bottom of the wedge. The trade is how ever risky since there is no real pattern to confirm we will fall to bottom of the wedge expect the fact we are hitting resistance. If you want to be safer wait for the smaller wedge to break that is withing the larger wedge. That will be a better and safer trade!
DJI continues correctionThe DJI had its ATH on jan 26 and has been since in a correction wave - abcde- .
Also there is a falling trend line, combined out of the intermediate peaks.
And the indicators RSI and ADX are signalling more weakness.
All together I think the correction can lead the DJI to 22.380 pt where we find support (fib retracement 78.6%).
On the timetable this should be around summertime.
Fundamentally the american stocks are more expensive than european or asian stocks. And with rising interest rates in the US the investors are perhaps searching for other possibilities.
SHORTING The DJI Ahead of the Upcoming Sell OffToday is April 9th 2018. As I am writing this the DJIA is up over 400 points @ 24,352. This after a huge sell off on Friday 4-6-18 which marked the first day in sub wave 3 of wave 3. I expect a lot of down movement in price this week so I will be shorting the DJI via SDOW (3x leveraged short) starting before the end of the trading day.
As always your comments and insight are greatly appreciated.
Bear Market Bounce? Descending Triangle Short TargetI think the pattern is more evident here on the Dow Jones, when compared to SPX. The next leg down (when measured from peak to baseline) has us right at "bear market" territory. From the current high (open/close) a close beneath 21293.368 puts us below the 20% threshold, and while we may dip to this area, I'm not so certain we will close a session beneath this spot (not yet, anyways). I see two possible scenarios, the 1st is if the market caves fast and we begin the next leg immediately, the 2nd includes a possible bounce within the descending triangle formation before completion of the pattern. I would like to point out, that if there is a bounce at the 22.5k area which retraces higher than 50% of the immediate fall, that would indicate a possible reversal due to the weakness of the pattern breakout. The latest I see this playing out by is mid-June, though it could happen at any time before then.