General Major Market Indices - An Overview of the MarketGeneral Major Market Indices
These six market indices give a very good snapshot of where we are in this difficult to discern market and why uncertainty still lingers as we continue to climb a wall of worry.
The Chart
▫️ Every index 1 - 6 below has been rejected or is struggling to make new highs on the weekly timeframe.
▫️ At the same time each chart appears to be finding support on the 200 day moving average (40 week moving average). You could argue that ascending triangles are forming, in which scenario we would await a confirmation breakout above the upper resistance line.
▫️ Charts 1 – 3 appear to be leading charts 4 – 6
- You can see that the DJ:DJT , TVC:DJI and TVC:XMI charts
(Charts 1 – 3) have all attempted to break above the
overhead resistance and have been rejected or are
struggling to break through.
- Conversely the CBOE:SPX , NASDAQ:NDX and TVC:RUA charts
(Charts 4 – 6) have made lower highs and have not
yet reached up and even tested the overhead
resistance... For this reason these charts are
showing relative weakness.
▫️ In prior Macro Mondays it was made very clear that Charts 1 – 3 can provide advance warning of recession and or bear market declines ahead of charts such as 4 – 6. Charts 4 - 6 are showing relative weakness and appear to be lagging charts 1 - 3, for this reason revisiting this snapshot would be beneficial to see can we get a lead on the S&P500, Nasdaq and US Small Caps. This in turn could give us a lead on the entire market.
▫️ At present we are above the 200 day moving average on every chart and the 200 day moving average is sloping upwards ✅
- This is positive and would reinforce an ascending
triangle thesis however at this stage, looking at all
the charts a definitive break above the overhead
resistance line would be a preferred entry with
stop losses placed under that resistance line thats
been broken.
- A revisit of the 200 day moving average could also
be another entry consideration, simply because
again you have stop placed under the 200 moving
average, defined entries with defined stops under
them.
In summary, charts 1 – 3 can act as leading indicators of where price will go next in the general market. Charts 4 – 6 are showing relative weakness, potentially making lower highs however this could change in coming weeks as a strong green candle is challenging the recent highs. Ideally we want to see a definitive break above the overhead resistance levels and we would rather not see further overhead rejections or a breach below the 200 day moving average.
The beauty of Trading View is that you can revisit this exact chart on my page, press play and see if we have we broken through the resistance lines or fallen below the 200 day moving average, all at a glance. Be sure to make use of it to save you the time and effort of reviewing every chart. You can get a the jist of these major indices all with a glance. Regardless I will do my best to update you here on X.
If you like these broader analysis covering multiple stocks in particular index's or in particular sectors, please let me know.
What are the components of each index?
- This is for those of you who are unsure what each index is made up of and what they represent.
1. Dow Jones Transportation Index - DJ:DJT
- The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States.
- The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy
2. Dow Jones Industrial Index – SDJI
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes
3. Arca Major Markets Index - TVC:XMI
- The XMI is an overlooked chart often utilized by OG traders has been referenced by Sentiment Trader as a leading market index. XMI is a price weighted index consisting of 20 blue chip U.S Industrial Stocks, 17 of which are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within the index there is surprising blend of stocks that include transport, travel, food, pharma, energy and technology.
4. S&P 500 - CBOE:SPX
- The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.
5. NASDAQ 100 - NASDAQ:NDX
- The technology index, the Nasdaq-100 is a market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index and includes the likes of NVIDIA and the MAANG stocks (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google)
6. US SMALL CAP 3000 - TVC:RUA
- Small-cap stocks are defined as having a market capitalization between $300 million and $2 Billion. Examples would be Upstart and Victoria's Secret.
Thanks guys
PUKA
Djt
Macro Monday 17~Bear Market Confirmed? Macro Monday 17
The Dow Theory Confirms Bear Market
Today’s post may be thee most important Macro Monday of 2023 as it may be a key moment where we received technical confirmation of a change to a bear trend.
What’s Got Me Rustled?
Manuel Blay, the lead economist and editor from the Dow Theory has recently confirmed an S&P500 bear trend change to his subscribers. Why is this so important? Historically, the Dow Theory has provided some of the best signals for market participants. From 1920 to 1975 the Dow Theory signals captured 68% of the moves in the Industrial & Transportation Averages and 67% of those in the S&P 500 Composite Index.
Over recent years I have been keeping an eye on The Dow Theory’s predictions and they were one of the few who signalled a warning in early 2001 before the Dot.Com Crash in Sept 2001, and they signalled a warning prior to March 2020 COVID-19 Crash. They were also one of the few who turned bullish on the market from November 2022 when bears were out in their droves.
The Dow Theory has a proven track record of outperforming the stock market with significant drawdown reduction (less skin in the game during downturn periods). The Dow Theory is one thee most top ranked investment letters and people will pay very close attention to this recent release by Manuel Blay.
What is Dow Theory and How Does It Work?
There are many elements to the Dow Theory and I am going to try and explain some of the basics with the help of some charts.
In basic terms the Dow Theory is a technical framework that predicts when the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (Such as Dow Jones Transportation Average) advances above a previous important high, accompanied or followed by a similar advance in another corresponding average (such as Dow Jones Industrial Average).
The theory is predicated on the notion that the market discounts everything, consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Efficient Market Hypothesis is something I live by, it is the hypothesis that states that share prices reflect all information, price being the aggregation of everything that’s happening. Price over everything, over the news and any other outside factors. Consistent alpha generation is possible focusing only on price. This hypothesis chants “the market knows best” or “trust the intelligence of the market/price”). The Dow Theory uses a combination of markets to help achieve agreement for the overall market trend using price.
In such a paradigm, different market indices must confirm each other in terms of price action and volume patterns until trends reverse. This means that one chart can lead another. It also means that if multiple charts are confirming a particular trend, this adds weight to the probability that that the new price direction is the new trend. This is important to understand as today we will see that out of the four most common charts used by the Dow Theory, three of them are confirming the bear trend and the fourth is leaning bearish (the final confirmation outstanding).
“The Dow Theory for the 21st Century” by Jack Schannep should be your go for a more detailed understanding of the Dow Theory or visit the TheDowTheory.com and become a subscriber.
The Bearish Signals are here
As noted above the Dow Theory mainly focuses on the price movements of four major market indices all of which we will individually cover on today’s Macro Monday:
1. S&P500 – Three Bearish Signals
2. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index – Three Bearish Signals
3. Dow Jones Transportation Average Index – Three Bearish Signals
4. NYSE Arca Major Markets Index – Two Bearish Signals (one pending)
S&P500 - SP:SPX
The price and price structure on the S&P500 chart has provided us with 3 key bearish confirmations (see Chart 1 Above)
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index - TVC:DJI
The DJI is significantly more bearish than the S&P500 as it failed to make a new high since its high in Jan 2022 whilst the S&P500 broke to new highs in July 2023. We could consider this as a negative divergence with the DJI providing us an advance warning due to its failure to establish a new high in July 2023, instead it confirmed a lower high.
The price and price structure on the TVC:DJI Chart has provided us with 3 key bearish confirmations also (see Chart 2 Below).
Dow Jones Transportation Average Index - DJ:DJT
Similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), the DJT also confirmed a lower high in July 2023 compounding the bearish signal already observed in the DJI. These could also be considered double tops with a lower high for the latter two.
The price and price structure on the TVC:DJI Chart has provided us with 3 key bearish confirmations also (see Chart 3 Below).
NYSE Arca Major Markets Index - TVC:XMI
Similar to the S&P500 the XMI chart made a higher high in July 2023 however this was a false break out followed by a throw over with price then falling through the 21 week moving average.
The price and price structure on the TVC:XMI Chart has provided us with 2 key bearish confirmations with the third pending confirmation, however with the 21 week moving average sloping downwards and with the three other charts above already having breached the diagonal resistance line, it is highly probable that the XMI will follow suit and breach its diagonal support line (see Chart 4 Below).
As you can see all charts are strongly suggesting that we have started to turn into bearish trend and all have an heir of a double top pattern. To be clear, this is using the Dow Theory approach which historically has been very effective at getting us on the right side of probability but there are no guarantees, there are times the Dow Theory has been completely wrong. Given that three of the charts are in complete agreement with the fourth looking liking to confirm a similar bearish path, probability strongly in the favour of the bears. For those who appreciate this theory they would now start to make some changes to their portfolios to protect themselves from a drawdown event, as noted in the introduction protection from drawdown events is where The Dow Theory really shines.
The Halloween Effect might fool us all
The Halloween effect on the markets is based on the historical tendency for the stock market to perform better between Halloween Oct and May Day (the "winter" months) than in the other six months of the year ("summer" months). It closely related to the oft-repeated advice to sell in May and go away. In particular the months of Oct – Dec are some of the best return months impacted by the Halloween effect. I will follow up with a chart in the comments that illustrate the % return of the Halloween effect versus the summer months.
In the past the Dow Theory and other market indicators have provided confirmation of a bear trend and the market has made higher highs thereafter only to be thrown over into a longer bear market many months later confirming the original bear trend thesis. The point being is that it is probable we are going to see some impact from the Halloween Effect and this could in fact press prices higher in the short term, and in some cases we can even make higher highs. We need to be extremely cautious if we make reasonable progress during the Halloween Effect period, perhaps this could be seen as an opportunity to take some profits and de-risk some of your portfolio.
I have covered the XMI, DJT, XMI and DJI charts in detail previously on Tradingview and here. Please review them if you would like to get more familiar with their components and historical performance.
As always folks, stay nimble in this market and reduce risk where possible
PUKA
DOW TRANSPORTATION .50 % and 618% The wave structure can be counted as a wave 4 drop this would setup the last wave up from today as the setup for support is been seen today . and put call models are set and oil is setup to break from 93/95.5 back to under 84 /79 this would be supportive for the djt
Dow Jones Industrial Average Key MomentMACRO MONDAY
Dow Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States.
The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy
Currently we are at a critical juncture on the DJT chart as we are testing significant resistance levels
- The DTJ Index is at a critical diagonal and horizontal
resistance level
- A break through or rejection of the resistance will
provide insight into the direction of the economy
- There is a potential Head and Shoulders pattern
that needs to be validated or invalidated which will
be defined by the price reaction to the resistance
zone.
We can observe what happens over the coming weeks and how price reacts to the resistance. Can it break above it and turn it into support?
When the DJI is climbing higher while the DJT is falling, it can be a signal of economic weakness ahead. A divergence of this sort means goods are not being transported at the same rate they are being produced, suggesting a decline in nationwide demand.
This type of divergence occurred prior to the March 2020 crash with the DJT making its ATH in Dec 2020, thereafter the DJI made a new ATH in February 2020 whilst the DJT was closing almost 5% lower making a lower high. Those that study Dow Theory were key observers of the divergence and acted accordingly safeguarding their portfolios.
Thankfully, at present there is no divergence. I will follow up in the comments with a chart showing that the DJI and the DJT are currently very closely aligned. Regardless paying close attention for a divergence could be very beneficial for your portfolio. I will certainly be on the look out and notify you in the event of.
Thanks for reading and welcome to Macro Mondays
PUKA
DOW TRANSPORTATION JUST STARTING DOWNThe chart posted is that of the DJT . As everyone is focused on the qqq and sp 500 and the flight to safety in tech DO NOT ASK ME WHY BTW . The markets are now in the HOPE stage. This is usually followed by Fear and then Despair . and then the last stage Denial . that is the BOTTOM
DIA trading within CPI Range from June!Dow Jones is still trading withing the range of the past few days which also places it within the range it was in back when we had a major decline following a disappointing CPI report back in the beginning of June. This puts the market in a position that could see a potential breakout in either direction. Can we possibly see economic data that propels the Dow higher out of the top of the range or will the trend of negative data to end the year continue forcing the market out of the lower end.
Manufacturing data released today suggest that the economy is continuing to slow, and we have recently seen forward earnings projections for giants such as Tesla ($TSLA) and Apple ($AAPL) be reduced. This is consistent with a muted rally we are seeing here for the Dow to start off the week and a 1% down day for the Nasdaq. I stand by my previous statement here to start off the week. I would be looking for short positions, with potential long positions to hedge going into 2023. However, we still are trading within this range and have no indication yet as to which way the wind will blow for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. There are some other signs that point to the potential outcome such as a weakening semiconductor industry ($SMH) and transportation index ($DJT) still trading below its 8 day average.
#DOWTHEORY transports failing to confirm new highs in industrialIf you believe in Dow Theory then the fact that transports have not been able to make a new high compared to the August Swing highs, should make you doubt the new highs seen in the industrials. Normally this is a sign of underlying weakness so the expectation would be for further weakness to come in general equities.
DJT Is BullishDJT, a leading economic indicator, is breaking out of a long falling wedge pattern that targets the all-time high daily candle body closes. This is yet another piece of the puzzle suggesting a much better second half for this year. Bollinger bands squeezing so tight and multi-month divergences are also indicating that it won't be a small move.
DJT,a leading economic indicator,again topping out bef SPX w H&SSomething is wrong! NOWHERE to hide except cash. Even XLP staples crash last week.
Now DJT is showing yet another warning sign. It just broke the very crucial 14k support, completing a head & shoulder pattern. Measured move may send it down to the 11k to 10300 zone.
It is now at 13500 my green pivot box where the red dotted median of my PITCHFORK is located.
If 14k is not reclaimed next few days, I think DJT may be making a 5 waves further down to 12300 where the black VWAP from the pandemic low will intersect. After that it will make a counter trend wave 4 rally back to retest 14k (wave 4 should not cross wave 1) before the final wave 5 dump to my yellow 11k to 10300 zone.
Last time DJT topped-out on 17Sept2018, 16 months before SPX’s peak on 13Jan2020. This time DJT peaked on 2Nov2021. This scenario suggest that recession is already underway & we just dont see it yet, especially if SPX gets rejected again at 4100/4200 again after this week’s expected oversold rally & breaks below 3800. Worst scenario may see SPX further down at 3520 or even 3200.
This time may be different coz we are in uncharted territory with so many headwinds like rising inflation, FED doing whatever it takes to raise interest rates to fight inflation, the invasion & the energy & food crisis it created & also the China lockdown. This time there will be no stimulus & no FED saving the stock market.
Not trading advice. Minimize risks & trade with CAUTION!
DJT:bellwether for stocks & economy just sliced thru 14k supportThis is bad! Stocks are falling even when DXY dollar index & TNX 10-yr yield are retracing.
The Dow Jones Transportation, a leading indicator for the stock mkt & the economy, just
zipped through the 14k key support, down 7.41%. All stock indices had a capitulation-like move Wednesday 18May, the worst since the pandemic days. Even defensive staples, household retailers like Target & Walmart fell.
DTJ has fallen into my green support zone. It may fall further it does not recover 14k soon.
Not trading advice
Leading Indicators Reversal Still BearishThe JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities
The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF continue down draft-> Bearish for equities
The TLT ETF is still diving -> still not seeing any flight to safety.
The VIX just broke out above the trendline -> very Bearish for equities
The HG1! copper futures downtrending
Overall, rather Bearish bias on equities
Leading indicators are BearishVery quickly before the market opens...
The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities
The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF gave up and gave way -> Bearish for equities
The TLT ETF is looking for a non-existent bottom -> no flight to safety. just gave way, period.
The VIX just broke out and checked in at the support... spiking up soon?
The HG1! copper futures stalled at resistance.
Overall, Bearish bias on equities
Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy...
The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities
The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely.
The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet.
The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45.
The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices.
Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first.
Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
Leading Indicators Reversal in ProgressInteresting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce...
JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound.
MACD still in bear territory.
IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have retraced hard, and bounced off a support. MACD crossed and still in bear territory... may not be over. sus.
TIPS failed a support and does not seem to be recovering, not bouncing for the matter. MACD appears to be recovering though. This one is rather odd, so I would just note and leave it for now.
TLT is not bullish as one would expect it to be. In fact, it looks bearish, which is favorable (bullish) for the equity markets.
VIX failed a solid break out and looks to be finding 16 again, signalling the interim volatilty is over and more bullish markets to prevail.
/HG Copper futures are held in a tight range and appear to be recovering this week - if it can hold steady and break out. MACD is not yet bullish.
Overall, the leading indicators are signalling an interim bottom. perhaps a larger than expected rebound should follow in the coming weeks...
SPX - DJT - CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE!SPX - DJT -CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE!
The SPX and DJT are highly correlated, this is to say that the correlation indicates the underlying demand for goods requiring transportation. In a previous chart using the same tickers I showed you that there was no confirmation of an economic 'slowdown', this time we do!
NOTE where I have made notations. The previous confirmation was Februray, 2020 - need I say anymore.
** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE **
Dow Transports - Weekly Sell SignalDow Theory Sell Signal is Active.
__________________________________________________________
The Primary Global Index used for Confirmation:
The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed from 5829 to 1764.
The Baltic Dry Index is reported daily by the Baltic Exchange
in London. The index provides a benchmark for the price of
moving the major raw materials by sea. The index is a composite
of three sub-indices that measure different sizes of dry bulk carriers:
Capesize, which typically transport iron ore or coal cargo.
Panamax, which usually carry coal or grain cargo.
Supramax, with a carrying capacity.
The Baltic Dry Index takes into account 23 different shipping routes
carrying coal, iron ore, grains, and many other commodities.
___________________________________________________________
The Dow Jones Transportation Average is a price-weighted average
of 20 transportation stocks.
As a Leading Indicator, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is a
Primary Indicator for the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
DJT Components:
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)
FedEx Corp. (FDX)
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)
JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU)
Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Kirby Corp. (KEX)
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)
Matson, Inc. (MATX)
Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)
Ryder System, Inc. (R)
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
United Parcel Service (UPS)
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel...
The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside.
The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support.
The DJT is also similar.
The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias.
The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed.
All the above have MACD technically bearish bias.
The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual.
The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so.
I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend.
I hope we get some committed trend soon!
Stay safe!
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update:
JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high.
IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle.
DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern.
Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap.
TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish.
TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu.
VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps?
ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come.
So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
Warning Signals S&P500 SPX500 SPX DJI DJT - Macro Analysis🚨We are nearing a Dow-Sell-Signal acc. to the new Dow-Theory🚨
We had a drop of more than 3% S&P and Dow which is causing a secondary reaction. If the S&P stays below $4400 the secondary reaction is confirmed.
This is the FIRST step acc. to the Dow-Theory system by Jack Schannep!
The economy is still in a major post-pandemic depression and many S&P500 companies are not profitable anymore! FED has pumped up the stock market artificially with free funny money that it has even broken above a resistance trend-line (cyan line) which exists since 1936 and at the same time the Buffet indicator indicates an extreme overvalued sell signal! Also the Wave Trend Oscillator, MACD and StochRSI has crossed bearish at 2W TF & 3W TF recently which means that bullish momentum is exhausted and that we are at a tipping point right now.
Basically it was a bullish signal that the $SPX has broken through the resistance trend-line (cyan line) but I think this was just a so called "overthrow" or "fake out"!
Since May 2021 we have a divergence between the Dow-Jones and the Dow transportation average which is a disconfirmation of the stock bull market. SMI (smart money indicator) shows that smart money is scaling out for months now (not shown on chart). Furthermore, sentiment signals also indicated very rare warning signals. For instance, Jason Goepfert's (sentiment-trader) indicators flashed rare warning signals recently, which means that there is a high spread between bear market probability and macro index models. Last time Jason´s sentiment indicator showed such a high spread was 14 years ago! Also Robert Prechter's Bear Market Prediction (Macro Elliott Wave Analysis with Fibonacci-Cycles) is confirming that we are nearing the end of a major stock bull market soon.
Ray Dalio´s debt cycle model (Short & Long-Term Debt-Cycles) is also indicating that we are on the verge of a serve debt crisis which will cause a major post-pandemic depression similar to 1929.
Currently the consensus (the herd) is thinking that we are currently in a high inflationary environment, but this was just a temporary spike in inflation rate which is currently at a dipping point. A deflationary shock will come sooner or later but an accurate predication when this will happen is impossible. When the debt bubble implodes (credit crunch) there will be high deflation also when it could be short-lived (economic depressions are usually deflationary).
Also smart-money is betting on deflation which is anticipated in the recent raise of bond prices.
At the end of the debt cycle central banks will expand the money supply even further (more money printing) which could cause high inflation but this also depends on factors like velocity of money and on the credit supply. For instance Japan is in a depression for approximately 30 years and there is still no high inflation due to manipulation with negative interest rate policy (NIRP).
However, you should know that in the background the elite has already established plans for the great reset which will force everyone to transition into a new monetary system.
Banks and other financial institutions will use “Ice-Nine freezes” to get your money!
Be prepared and have CASH on the sidelines. This could get very ugly!
Of course these major stock market signals also have negative impact on cryptos as well...
We recommend to accumulate gold and silver during the deflationary shock.
Also US treasury bonds usually are a good investment in a low-interest rate environment (=raising bond prices).
A deflationary shock will be a very good opportunity :-)
Disclaimer!
I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only!
You can use the information from the post to make your own trading decisions.
Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.