UPS big gap down - up or down UPS gapped down big on earnings day has been going sideways for a few days. UPS has been a massive bull run until May 2021.
As you can see from the chart, 190.75 and 195.60 are the support resistance region. It will be interesting to see which way it breaks out as it has been going sideways within this range.
My bias is to the downside, though we should stay neutral.
But i am tempted to do a bear call spread around the 215 level.
Djt
DJT on a downtrend DJT is on a downtrend since i last posted on it last month. Of not all stocks in DJT are on a downtrend but the major ones are underperforming.
DJT touched on the MA100 line back in Jan 2021 and rose to ATH in May 2021. Since then it has declined around 13%. It is a lower high and low on the weekly and this indicates and confirms the downtrend unless this is broken.
UPS recently gapped down 3 days ago and has been going sideways (inside bars).
The transportation index is the driver of the economy and you need it to transport goods around. Perhaps the economy is slowing down a bit before moving higher. But with so many things are at ATH at the moment and very high valuations on few stocks, there could be a general corrections on the way, but might not be for a couple more months.
If the supply of credit is there by the Feds, this market will hold.
Dow Jones Transportation Signal Market Sell Off?The Dow Jones Transportation index usually tops and reverses prior to the Dow or S&P. The Transportation index has also fell below its support line while the Dow is in the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern. Will the Fed save the markets again or will Wall Street finally meet reality? If the Fed didn't exist this would be the easiest short play.. I still think a pullback or consolidation is extremely likely
Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age).
The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008.
Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
The Look of Twitter since Permanently Suspending DJT's Account Since Twitter Permanently Suspended DJT's Account the company's stock value is down 18.23% on this news. That is almost half of the USA population that cannot be reached by their president, looks to be a bad financial move for the company moving into 2021.
If Country Indexes Had PersonalitiesThis is always a fun way to view the markets. Today we are going to look at a risk on barometer that may be unknown to most. When Finland is breaking out, we tend to take notice. This is a good indication that money is flowing to risk on assets. If country indexes had personalities, Finland would be on a motorcycle pole vaulting with a hockey stick! All jokes aside, let's hop into the chart.
We saw Finland basing for a couple months and now we have a breakout. We have to clear through some of the overhead supply first, but we are not far from all time highs. If we were to see all time highs in Finland, that would surely be bullish right? Here on the weekly chart, we have a bullish cross on the stochastic RSI and a bullish regime on the %SMA oscillator. Don’t fight an uptrend. As far as next major resistance levels, we have some Fibonacci levels that coincide with all time highs from the last two swing high/swing low market structures. This is the “super risk on” environment and would be a blue sky breakout in Finland. These are all signs of good macro market breadth. Rather than looking at the SPY’s all day as an analyst, remember that there are many things you can do to analyze the markets.
Happy Trading!
Bearish reversal underway in S&P, NASDAQ futures and DJTThe recoveries in most US and European stock indexes since late-March are corrective. This especially true in S&P futures and in the Down Jones Transportation Average (charts 1 and 2). The chart that stands out is NASDAQ futures, where prices climbed to a new all-time high, creating one of the broadest bearish non-confirmations of all time (chart 3). The ideal trajectories are outlined on the chart with measured targets at 2003 and 5228 for S&P futures and DJT, where we would achieve equality with the February/March downleg. As for NASDAQ futures, a strong target zone is the 8555 - 8386 area of the wave (iv) low and 50% retracement level, although greater downside potential exists. Ivo Z
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice! I am merely expressing my opinion, utilizing the Wave Principle as my main tool. You should always do your own research before risking your hard-earned money. The opinion expressed in this post is only for educational purposes only!
The world needs transportation...These are sort of my levels. Aren't you worried about crude level? I mean... Do you think this will ever recover its shape again? It's just common sense and because this world is moved by money and transportation issues mainly.
How do you imagine this future?
Thanks again!
Transportations Are looking Too Good... Is A 36% Drop In Store?Dow Jones Transportation have just finished their wave 5 cycles up. Which means we are in store for a larger correction down. There we are looking at retracements to the 0.382 fib at 7800 or a 0.5 fib retracement at 6700.
If transportation were to drop, the SPX and S&P is going to drop too. Transportations has always been a early warning regardless to do that.