If Country Indexes Had PersonalitiesThis is always a fun way to view the markets. Today we are going to look at a risk on barometer that may be unknown to most. When Finland is breaking out, we tend to take notice. This is a good indication that money is flowing to risk on assets. If country indexes had personalities, Finland would be on a motorcycle pole vaulting with a hockey stick! All jokes aside, let's hop into the chart.
We saw Finland basing for a couple months and now we have a breakout. We have to clear through some of the overhead supply first, but we are not far from all time highs. If we were to see all time highs in Finland, that would surely be bullish right? Here on the weekly chart, we have a bullish cross on the stochastic RSI and a bullish regime on the %SMA oscillator. Don’t fight an uptrend. As far as next major resistance levels, we have some Fibonacci levels that coincide with all time highs from the last two swing high/swing low market structures. This is the “super risk on” environment and would be a blue sky breakout in Finland. These are all signs of good macro market breadth. Rather than looking at the SPY’s all day as an analyst, remember that there are many things you can do to analyze the markets.
Happy Trading!
Djt
Bullish Transports - Hidden Bullish Divergence (Monthly)MACD suggests a bullish breakout is underway with lots of energy to expend.
The cold hard Technical analysis is right there.
Salta conmigo! / Jump with me!With more lockdowns this is our best scenario.
-------------------------
Tribute to Tequila:
www.youtube.com
Good luck!
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $DJT Weekly. Re-cross GoldenDeath cross negated and re-crossed golden. No new highs, but that may be tested before pullback
$TRAN $IYT $AAL $UAL $DAL $LUV $EXPE $FDX $SPY $DIA $DJI $YM_F #Stocks #Transports 🛫
Bearish reversal underway in S&P, NASDAQ futures and DJTThe recoveries in most US and European stock indexes since late-March are corrective. This especially true in S&P futures and in the Down Jones Transportation Average (charts 1 and 2). The chart that stands out is NASDAQ futures, where prices climbed to a new all-time high, creating one of the broadest bearish non-confirmations of all time (chart 3). The ideal trajectories are outlined on the chart with measured targets at 2003 and 5228 for S&P futures and DJT, where we would achieve equality with the February/March downleg. As for NASDAQ futures, a strong target zone is the 8555 - 8386 area of the wave (iv) low and 50% retracement level, although greater downside potential exists. Ivo Z
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice! I am merely expressing my opinion, utilizing the Wave Principle as my main tool. You should always do your own research before risking your hard-earned money. The opinion expressed in this post is only for educational purposes only!
DJT Until next year.... Transportation to take a possible hit until the first quarter of 2021. Fib cluster located recent resistance met.
The world needs transportation...These are sort of my levels. Aren't you worried about crude level? I mean... Do you think this will ever recover its shape again? It's just common sense and because this world is moved by money and transportation issues mainly.
How do you imagine this future?
Thanks again!
Transportations Are looking Too Good... Is A 36% Drop In Store?Dow Jones Transportation have just finished their wave 5 cycles up. Which means we are in store for a larger correction down. There we are looking at retracements to the 0.382 fib at 7800 or a 0.5 fib retracement at 6700.
If transportation were to drop, the SPX and S&P is going to drop too. Transportations has always been a early warning regardless to do that.
𝗗𝗼𝘄 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $DJI Weekly. 2008 PlaybookIn June 2008, #DowJones broke its weekly 200ema and key support (DotCom highs). It then backtested in following months before next major down move. The setup is similar now 🤓
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $DJT Daily. Breaking Down200dma broke as has the 2019 uptrend. Huge red flag for markets. May DCB here near 10K
DJT/DJI - At the Top of this Year's ChannelJust noticed this today and thought I would share. Something to keep an eye on.
Any thoughts? Not to sure what to make of it.
Trading the Elliott Wave Principle - Part 1 - (3)This chart is part of our educational article "Trading the Elliott Wave Principle - Part 1."
Look out belowI don't always look at the weekly (I'm generally too impatient), but today... I took some time back testing one of the public libraries favorite strategy. I noticed that we haven't touched the lower band since 2008 then again in 2002. Its pretty obvious why- we've been in a crazy non stop rally since the market crash of 2008, but still. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF. I know it's quite impossible to predict the next crash, but damn if any chart could convince it was going to happen, it'd be this one. Take a look.
Dow Theory - DJIA and DJTA Clash to Signal Bearish Future*Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This video goes over the divergence between the DJ:DJI and DJ:DJT . Currently, the DJIA is trending upwards, setting new highs, and lows. However, contrary to this movement, the DJTA is moving downwards heading towards a trendline shown in the video, but could very easily break through that trendline.
Why do I care?
In 1929, several months before the flash crash and the official start of the Great Depression, divergence indicated by Dow Theory helped forecast bearish price action. This is outlined in the Intelligent Investor . Part of Dow Theory states that if either the DJIA or DJTA starts moving in a direction in contradiction of the other, the index whose movement has not yet transitioned will begin to do so. In this case, that means that the DJIA should start to trend further downward.
On the weekly charts of both indices, the RSI shows obvious bearish divergence moving in confluence with the hypothesis presented by Dow Theory.
This could mean short term breaks of trendlines and longer-term moves to lower supports around 21 000 - 22 000 price range for the DJIA or lower.
Internationally, we've seen global growth in regard to Europe (eg. Germany's poor GDP report), China's poor manufacturing, the inverted yield curve, and greater bearish sentiment as a product of Trump and his trade war. These factors along with this analysis indicate looming bearish movement, but also the potential to BUY more stocks as they become cheaper and become bargains.
Good Luck Traders!
S&P Next Week Trade Plan: Expected Move ($41) & Gravity PointsWelcome to Earnings Season!
Google and Amazon report earnings on the 25th after the market. Both will highly influence Friday's trading session.
Expected Move for the week is $41.25 +/- which is a 25% increase w/w of the expected move so put on your seatbelt.
Netflix missed horribly.
Fed cutting interest rates will be negative for the financials XLF.
We broke through the bottom of last week's expected move so I colored it from Orange to Red to represent that.
I have a buy target if we end up overshooting this week's expected move and falling all the way to our longstanding Gravity Point .
It looks like the smallcaps and transports are a bad day or two away from breaking down
The SPX is dangerously extended above all of its moving averages.
Gold bugs watch Silver for confirmation.
If you want to watch Google getting relentlessly spanked here's the link;
www.youtube.com
Last Week's Post:
Best of luck next week gentlemen
- RH
IWM Has No More Upside - Longterm Target Is 112 USDCurrently we are in a ABCDE formation down. Next target is 141 USD, where it will make a corection up to 151 USD for the (e).
In my last post i noted that transportations are also expecting a correction down, which should take IWM with it. Therefore the larger target of IWM is 112 USD. Best case Scenario we are looking at a target of 99 USD.
Next Week Expected Move ($32) and Gravity Points + ExtraThink we're going into a melt up. Powell all but confirmed a rate cut. Last week I mentioned watching Bonds closely, and that played out well.
I've had a long term target from 2017 coming into play here, we'll see what happens and if technicals remain relevant over longer time frames.
Earnings next week can shift the narrative either direction. I think much has been priced in, both bullish and bearish.
Last Week's Post:
Extra -
Unfilled Gaps:
Value Line Geometric Divergence:
HYG/TYX Divergence:
Small Caps Look Interesting:
3 Little Indians Pattern + Divergence With Other Indices + More
On a long time frame, we have a “three little Indian” pattern consisting of 3 peaks and 3 rivers. Expect accelerated selling once we return to the 2nd peak high buy institutions
From $3000 - $3047.38 (The 2008 Financial Crisis 2.618 Fib Retracement Level) I expect selling pressure to be heavy.
We have already fallen out of the most recent ascending wedge 2 days ago, in which we retested the previous support and have proceeded to trade down from there:
Divergence on the MACD histogram and the CMF was negative the entire way up.
This market traded up on the idea that bad news is good in hopes of a rate cut, completely ignoring the US and macroeconomic slowdown that has begun. That and trade tensions around the globe. Don't get me wrong, I love Trump, but if you think the Chinese will actually give the US a favorable trade deal you're wrong.
Here is the current weighting of the top 10 companies in the $SPX (as of July 11, 2019):
Rank Company Ticker Weight (%) Price
1 Microsoft Corporation MSFT 4.249644 137.89
2 Apple Inc. AAPL 3.573786 202.46
3 Amazon.com Inc. AMZN 3.356436 2,007.59
4 Facebook Inc. Class A FB 1.959511 200.78
5 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B 1.667792 213.36
6 Johnson & Johnson JNJ 1.508331 139.54
7 JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 1.474984 114.24
8 Alphabet Inc. Class C GOOG 1.406174 1,142.85
9 Alphabet Inc. Class A GOOGL 1.374452 1,142.67
10 Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 1.319375 77.43
Total Weight of Top 10: 21.890485%
Weight from 12/31/2014 - 3/31/2019:
Ticker Company Name 3/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 3.83% 3.73% 2.89% 2.51% 2.48% 2.10%
AAPL Apple Inc. 3.60% 3.38% 3.81% 3.21% 3.28% 3.55%
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. 3.11% 2.93% 2.05% 1.54% 1.45% 0.65%
FB Facebook Inc. 1.68% 1.50% 1.85% 1.40% 1.33% 0.72%
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 1.65% 1.89% 1.67% 1.61% 1.38% 1.51%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 1.58% 1.65% 1.65% 1.63% 1.59% 1.61%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C 1.53% 1.52% 1.39% 1.19% 1.26% 0.85%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 1.49% 1.49% 1.38% 1.22% 1.27% 0.84%
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. 1.45% 1.37% 1.55% 1.94% 1.81% 2.16%
Total: 19.92% 19.46% 18.24% 16.25% 15.85% 13.99%
Data gathered from: www.slickcharts.com & siblisresearch.com
Top put this into prospective here are some charts:
Dow Jones Transports/Dow Jones Industrial Average:
NYSE Composite:
Russell 2000:
WilShire 4500 Index:
No one can truly ever time the very top. It can definitely go higher, but please be careful when buying up here.
Best of Luck
S&P 500 Expected Move ($33.75) and Gravity PointsI'd expect more volatility next week than the $33.75 move the options market is pricing in.
I'm leaning bearish going into next week. Not willing to commit to it unless I see a higher time-frame divergence though.
Leaning bearish because the underlying reason the market was rising was Fed rate cuts, which was a damaged with Friday's uber strong jobs report, it reduced the probabilities of a 26% chance of a 50 bpt cut to a 3% chance. There's still a 100% chance of a 25 bpt rate cut next time.
I try to be data driven but I can't help but have the suspicion that the Fed is not going to be eager to cut and might not next time even though the data is saying there's a 100% probability of it. Would catch a lot of people offsides.
Watch Bond reaction next week.
Last Week's Post:
(Quite happy with results from last week)
P.S. for what it's worth, adding additional ticker tags in your Idea doesn't impact your views. Last week's experiment proved as much.
Good luck next week gentlemen,
- RH
