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DKS

DKS may be under resistance pressure to the lowerDKS is under pressure with more stores opening and severely lower revenues from sales. Stores are opening in markets that are depressed. This will cause a significant run at the cash on hand and could cause a failure. I shorted in March to May and now April to June. 10 contracts to the lower in anticipation of week financials for q-1. I am short at 10 calls at 23.00 with a bollinger lower level 18.00. Resistance is at 200DMA on the monthly. Looking lower to me.
NYSE:DKSShort
by ramonbenavides12
THE WEEK AHEAD: VIX, SPY, IWM, QQQ, DKS, FL, TEVAUnless you've been living under a rock somewhere, you'll know that last week we experienced a pop in VIX. Ordinarily, this would get me somewhat excited to put on broad market index exchange-traded fund stuff in SPY, IWM, and QQQ. However, running my standard defined risk setups in those underlyings has led to minor disappointment -- while they are paying more than last week due to the increase in implied volatility, they still aren't paying enough, in my opinion, to bother with putting on; we simply need higher back month implied volatility for those to pay if I'm going to stick to my guns and only put these on when they're paying at least one-third the width of the widest wing. Even if I go out to the October expiry, a 20-delta three wide is only paying .91 in the QQQ's, .81 in IWM, and .81 in SPY (at this point in time, going with the September expiry is too close in time; October's too far out; and the September quarterly needs to populate a touch more to be workable, so that set of circumstance militates in favor of just waiting anyhow). As far as earnings are concerned, there are couple of underlyings with >70 implied volatility rank and >50% implied volatility that might be worth doing earnings plays on: DKS, which announces on Tuesday before market open and FL, which is tentatively scheduled for some time on Friday. With non-earnings, only TEVA has the metrics I'm looking for. Because of the size of the underlying, I'd probably go short straddle or fly; the Sept 15th 17.5 short straddle is paying 2.21 with break evens slightly wide of the expected move, and the Sept 22nd 13.5/17.5/17.5/21.5 iron fly (you'll want to go with a weekly to have access to half strikes), is paying 2.08 with a buying power of effect of 1.92, theta of 1.30, and 2.27 long delta. For traders who are not adverse to acquiring shares of this beaten-down generic drug maker, the September 20 delta short put at the 15 strike is paying .37 at the mid with a break even of 14.63; the Sept 29th 15 is paying .47 at the mid with a break even of 14.53. A more aggressive play would be the September 29th 30 delta at 15.5, paying .61 with a break even of 14.89. Because of the VIX pop, a "Term Structure" play may be in the offing. Although the first VIX future trading at greater than 16 is in the January expiry (156 days out), the November 16/19 short call vertical (93 days out) is paying .70 at the mid, which is what I look for in these plays (.65-.75 for a three wide). That being said, September, October, November, and December expiries maintain a flat aspect relative to spot here, trading at 15.27, 15.52, 15.73, and 15.72, so it may be worthwhile to wait and see if those front months "smooth out" such that each successive back month is higher than the previous one. The current structure is basically trading with "flat volatility" in mind between 15.25 and 15.75 from September to year's end .... .
TVC:VIX
by NaughtyPines
1
Will Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) Rebound At Least 7%Dicks Sporting Goods has been on a bull run since November 2008. On multiple occasions through this bull, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at the same or lower levels, that they are now. These instances are resulted in gains for the stock. I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the stock may rise while it most likely ends is recent bear trend and restarts it bull. When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 23.2053. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI has the stock oversold. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7757 and the negative is at 1.1798. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive and negative values are currently at extreme levels and the stock always rebounds. The stochastic oscillator K value is 9.0137 and D value is 10.7460. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently oversold. The K value will soon cross above the D value. When this occurs the stock should begin to move higher. Since the current long-term bull began, there have been four occasions when the RSI was at or below its current close at the same time the negative VI was at its current height and the stochastic was oversold. All similar instance led to a significant gain for the stock. The median gain occurs over 12 trading days with a median rise of 12.34%. The minimum gain on these occasions was 8.51%. Furthermore, 17 occasions in the current long-term bull had the stock bounce off clearly identified support levels. I define a support level as one the stock uses as a bottom on a minimum of three occasions. The median gains from these bounces off support have resulted over 16 trading days with a median move of 15.69%. The minimum gain from these levels is 8.51% This 8.51% also occurred when the RSI and positive VI value were at or below their current levels. A gain of 8.51% is probable in this instance as it encompasses a bounce off strong support and has the RSI and VI at extreme levels. Considering the RSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 7% over the next 27 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:DKSLong
by StockSignaler
OPENING: DKS MARCH 17TH 43/50/50/57.5 IRON FLY... for a 4.35 ($435)/contract credit. I put this on earlier in the week, but neglected to post it here ... . (High implied volatility rank; high implied volatility; it's in the 95th percentile of where implied volatility has been in the past six months; its background implied volatility is at 47%). Metrics (Currently): Max Profit: $418/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $332/contract Break Evens: 45.82/54.18 Theta: 5.66/contract Delta: 1.33/contract Notes: DKS earnings are currently scheduled for March 14th. The notion here was to play the underlying for sideways chop leading up to earnings, but take it off shortly before. We'll see how that works out .... . If I get an opportunity to close it out in profit before earnings, I may play it again for the earnings announcement ... .
NYSE:DKS
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS AND A PERSISTENTLY LOW VIXIf you're going to play anything next week premium selling wise, it's going to be in earnings, because that's all that's really out there volatility-wise. The VIX remains persistently low here, and running a screen for exchange-traded funds with >70% implied volatility rank, and >35% implied volatility yields absolutely nothing. Here's what showed up on my radar -- some sketchy ADR action (WUBA), a little bit of frisky biopharm (BCRX), and some beaten-down brick-and-mortar retail (M, SHLD, JCP): WUBA (99/56) (Online Retail): It's scheduled to announce earnings on Thursday (2/23) (Short strangle/iron condor). BCRX (98/287) (Biopharm): Earnings Monday (2/27) Before Market Open. (Short puts, short straddle). This is biopharm, which -- in itself -- should serve as a warning. You may want to do a bit more due diligence on this one than you would ordinarily, since they can explode, but also implode. DKS (98/48) (Sporting Goods/Retail): Earnings are three weeks out, but I thought I'd put it out there since it's nearly ripe for play implied volatility rank/implied volatility wise. (Short strangle, iron condor). M (96/49) (Department Store Retail): Earnings Tuesday (2/21) Before Market Open. Because we have a long holiday weekend here, with the markets being closed on Monday, I've probably missed an opp to play this one unless there is high vol afterglow post earnings. (Short strangle, iron condor). SHLD (93/127) (Department Store Retail): I don't see that this has earnings up, but it's in the process of imploding. (Short puts, short straddle). BBY (93/47) (Retail): Earnings 3/1 Before Market Open. We're still a ways out from earnings, so like DKS, nearly ripe ... . (Short strangle, iron condor). HTZ (92/73) (Car Rental): Earnings 2/27 (Monday) After Market Close. Another one that's ripe right now. (Short strangle, iron condor). JCP (88/65) (Department Store/Retail): Earnings Friday (2/24) Before Market Open. Another beaten down brick and mortar retail issue. (Short puts, short straddle). OCN (85/70) (Financial): Earnings on 2/22 (Wednesday) After Market Close. (Short puts,short straddle).
W
by NaughtyPines
2