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Dollar's Comeback ContinuesAfter ranging for more than 2 months and reaching a 29-month low, the dollar started to show signs of reversal. The reversal took off strongly and broke above the top of its previous range just below 94 with very little pause. The dollar continued to climb and finally reached the top of a 6-month falling channel where resistance was presented. However, a reversal failed to take place and the dollar went out to break above the previous day high on the very last trading day. US dollar rose amid a risk-off market sentiment and also due to a technical oversold. The dollar is likely to inch higher further before Friday's NFP. We will keep our short-term view bearish or slightly towards ranging for now until it reaches the supply zone above 95.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
Pound's at riskThe GBPUSD faced strong resistance when it approached a major supply zone around the 1.34 region. Its rally against the dollar was confirmed to have ended when smashed downwards shortly into the September period. Breakthroughs of important rising trendlines followed through as risk sentiment continued to build up which has led to a further rally for the dollar. GBPUSD now faces a last line of defense at a 4-month rising trendline with no obvious buyers at the moment. Putting dollar's rally aside, the pound is constantly facing pressure due to its brexit deal which seems very gloomy. What we can see right now is that GBPUSD is most likely to revisit its brexit low at 1.20 in time to come.
Short
by AlgoVenture
GBPUSD More Room for DownsideGBPUSD started a downtrend when it gapped downwards and broke a trendline upon Elliot Wave completion. Last week, Price has once again broken a 6 month trendline, and retested break out point before a bearish closing on Friday. This week, we can assume GBPUSD will continue it's downtrend, at least back to its previous low at 1.278, with next immediate support being at 1.2545. Continue selling GBPUSD once there are small pullbacks in the smaller timeframes upon market opening.
Short
by AlgoVenture
Dollar still owes a Bullish WaveThe dollar continued to range and trended slightly lower. The bearish movement can be seen as a pullback for the previous bullish trend which saw the minor bearish structure broken. On the other hand, the dollar is very oversold and hasn't pulled back significantly enough even though the current highs are still trading lower. This week, we will still maintain our bullish bias and continue to buy the dollar as part of a short-term trading strategy.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
Gold Completes Elliott TriangleSince the selloff started in early August, gold has fallen into a consolidation, forming a symmetrical triangle. The gold was trading above support level 1939 throughout the week but has broken below a rising trendline the day after FOMC. The bearish wave after FOMC has also marked an end to an Elliott triangle which could potentially send the gold further south. Last Friday has shown a significant pullback and therefore, we can look to sell gold in the coming week as soon as the market is opened next week.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AlgoVenture
How to Catch the Bears for EURUSD?If you hadn't realized, EURUSD has marked the end of its final bullish run last week. The market now trades within a range and is currently pulling back from a bearish trend since yesterday. While we can't be certain that EURUSD will eventually dip further, it's a safe and reasonable bet to sell again as it approaches the top of the current range. If we were to commit to selling and should the market does continue to take a bearish stance, the bears should appear before the price climbs beyond 1.1950. By counting the number of waves of the current rebound from 1.1755, the price has the potential to develop another bullish wave and reach somewhere between 1.1860 and 1.1950. The ECB press conference is just ahead and that will provide more clues as to how bearish the euro will get this week all the way till next week's FOMC. This plan should work as long as the ECB does not turn hawkish all of a sudden, which is very unlikely given the current economic condition in the eurozone.
Short
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD Second Wave CompletedEURUSD has formed a second wave of uptrend, similar in volume to the previous wave, and has found resistance at a significant supply zone this week. As bearish as USD is right now, it is about time for a pullback / correction, thus we should wait for a consolidation pattern or a retest of previous low before continuing to buy EURUSD . This week, we should see EURUSD range for a few days, similarly to the previous consolidation, before breaking current high. Look to buy EURUSD again once a support structure has been formed.
Long
by AlgoVenture
How Far can Dollar Fall?The dollar has posted its biggest loss in a month since 2009. One glance at the monthly timeframe, the dollar is certain to have confirmed its peak at 103. It is also almost certain that the dollar has begun a mid to long term bearish trend as it fell back to the starting point of a 2-year rising channel just above 93. Since we are certain that the dollar will continue to weaken, how far can it go? At a glance, I'd say it will face little support towards 89, a major resistance since 2009 until it was broken in late 2014, turned major support since early 2018. The fed has made it clear that it will hold rate low and unchanged through 2022, the unprecedented amount of money printing, and the dire situation faced in the US economy due to the pandemic and many other political issues, can only lead the dollar further south. It is probably unnecessary to explain too much why the dollar will fall as there's little to no reason that the dollar should climb, apart from being a safe haven currency, which...I don't know...imagine gold just keep popping up from the ground, what would happen to its value? Anyway, since the dollar is still somewhat seen sitting at a 26-month low near 93, I suppose there'd be significant pullbacks, which probably won't last for long before it continues south.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
Dollar Breaking 9 Year Rising TrendlineThe dollar had the biggest weekly fall in 4 months and broke below a 22-month support level. At the same time, the dollar is also threatening to break below a 2-year rising trendline which could open the floor for more selling. In fact, the dollar is destined to fall since it broke below a 2-year rising channel. Of course, there are a lot of fundamental reasons to support a weakening dollar such a diminishing Treasury yield or a more risk-on market where the global economy is recovering from the pandemic other than the US's ever-breaking of a new high in the daily new COVID cases, as well as a surge in the death rate. The US and the dollar have surely disappointed the market big time due to the mishandling of the pandemic and allowing a relapse of such magnitude where the current figures of new COVID cases are more than a fold than the highest in April. The dollar is most likely to extend further downside but not without any pause or pullback. Once the dollar successfully breaks below the 2-year rising trendline, the next level can be seen at the 2-year demand zone sitting above 93.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
Dow Jones: Is this the beginning of a 2nd SELL-OFF?Since coronavirus first broke out in February globally, the global stock market has tanked and plunged in a devastating fashion but has quickly recovered once the lockdown began and the economy started to open up again. However, it is obvious right now that the US is facing a relapse as new COVID cases rose to an all-time high, and death rate picked up again. Besides, the US-China tension has worsened in one of the worst situations, and also, the US stock market is obviously overbought and is mostly driven by the government through unprecedented printing of the dollar. The Dow Jones fell sharply since the COVID cases started to spike again in early mid-June and it struggled to climb as the situation was not under control. Moving forward, we can see a prominent sign of exhaustion as one of the biggest US stock markets, Apple, plunged last week. The price was seen resisted at 27000 and started to reverse in the last 2 trading days. We will see a retest of the bottom of the 4-month rising channel and chances are it will break below if COVID situation, as well as the US-China tension, continued to worsen. So to draw a conclusion, the long-awaited 2nd wave of a sell-off could happen anytime, and we see the price plunging towards the 24000 and 23000 regions in the next couple of weeks.
FX:US30Short
by AlgoVenture
Can USDCAD break strong support level?USDCAD has finished forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, and has successfully formed a bearish wave reaching the previous low before finding support. We can see that the price USDCAD is currently in is a significant price of interest, forming 2 doji candles this week. Should price be supported this week, we could wait for a retracement back to the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern before continuing to sell USDCAD . However, should price break current support at the start of the week, we could then wait for a retest of this support turned resistance before selling USDCAD again.
Short
by AlgoVenture
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Dollar Falls Slowly But SteadilyThe dollar continued to fall last week and reached a 1-month support level at 95.8. It rebounded at first but gains were wiped out in the very next candle, showing a lack of buyers at the support. The dollar is currently establishing a bearish trend within an H4 falling channel, both highs and lows are continuing to form lower, and thus a clear-cut bearish market. This week, we shall continue to look for a selling opportunity. 1) If the dollar rebounded off from the current support, wait for the price to reach resistance zone 96.2 - 97.35, as well as the top of the H4 falling channel, and look to sell. 2) If the dollar breaks below the current support, simply wait for a pullback towards the breakout level to sell again. Look out for the near 2-year support level which coincides with a W1 rising trendline.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD Impending Break OutEURUSD's movement this week has been definitely leaning more towards ranging, with a slight bullish bias. As we can observe from price movement, higher lows have been forming, however price is still being rejected from the previous high. On the daily timeframe , we can definitely see a consolidation pattern being formed, nearing its end soon. Thus we can expect a breakout of the pattern sometime this week. On the H4 timeframe, a rising channel could be seen, with price being supported at the bottom of the channel right now. This week, we could look to buy EURUSD at current price, or we could also wait for a breakout of the pattern before buying on retracement for more confirmation.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Gold has More Room on the UpsideWay to Gold! The gold has once again broken new high and reached 1779, a level not seen in more than 8 years. As high as gold already was, the demand for safe-haven asset continued to rise through the pandemic. There are so many reasons - the unprecedented printing of money (i.e. bond purchases), the super low-interest rates which will last for a couple of years, and of course the uncertainty of the pandemic and the recent surge in COVID cases in the US. Historically speaking, the most recent financial epidemic in 2008 has clearly shown us just how much can gold climb while the economy is trying to recover from recessions and depressions. So, just in case if you're thinking that the gold is over-valued, it's probably more like 'undervalued'. The break of a new historical high could very well be the beginning of the rise of gold price. However, it's likely inevitable that strong resistance will be faced the nearer price gets to the historical high of 1920, and before that, the near 9-month supply zone just right ahead. As of now, gold should have a smooth journey ahead to climb further, at least not before it reaches 1810.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar May Climb Further but Not for LongThis month will be critical for the dollar as it will show whether the price will stay supported within the rising channel or confirm the break. What's likely the outcome is the dollar will start to really weaken, both fundamentally and technically. 103 probably marked the peak for the dollar and the price has already wiped out all gains in March if we exclude the portion from below the rising channel. The chart has shown that the dollar is losing its value and the most recent break-below of the bottom of the rising channel determined the case. The Fed during its last FOMC conference said that interest rate will remain low throughout 2022, which means that demand for dollar will not be expected from a rate hike for a good period of time. The Fed's balance sheet has expanded to a really horrendous figure during this pandemic which I don't even want to talk about it more. To sum it up, the dollar may still rise a little further as demand for safe-haven currency such as dollar will rise as COVID cases rose last week. But it won't be long and the dollar will start to lose its value and should the month closed below the channel, that shall be the beginning to the fall of the dollar.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture