GBPUSD bulls attacking major resistanceThe British pound has surged to its highest trading level against the US dollar since November 2018, after bulls easily broke through the 1.3030 resistance barrier on Wednesday. The GBPUSD pair now trades above its 200-day moving average and faces a key challenge from the 1.3095 resistance level. If bulls can move price above the 1.3095 level, further upside towards the 1.3170 level seems possible.
The GBPUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 1.3030 level, key technical resistance is now found at the 1.3095 and 1.3170 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair falls under the 1.3030 level, a decline towards the 1.2990 and 1.2940 levels may occur.
DMA
BTCUSD sellers fail to capitalizeBitcoin is once again testing towards the $3,660 resistance level, after sellers failed to capitalize on the early week drop below the key $3,485 support level. The broader cryptocurrency market enjoyed a decent rally on Wednesday, although the BTCUSD pair added only marginal gains on the day. A break of the $3,300 to $3,960 price range is needed before the next short-term trend can be established.
The BTCUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the $3,485 level, key technical support remains at the $3,300 and $3,100 levels.
If the BTCUSD pair breaks above the $3,660 level, key resistance is then found at the $3,960 and $4,220 levels.
Gold Potential Long OpportunityGold wants higher but bears are giving a good fight here. The minor trend is down and 0.236 of fib extension of the last leg down is clearly showing signs of resistance around the level of 1310. This long set up is essentially a counter trend setup which is not recommended usually but given the current circumstance, it might work out fine. Failing around this area, will ultimately lead to lower price around 1270, so tight stops are necessary.
Bitcoin support at 50, 100, 200 Day Moving Averages(DMA) in 2017As we can see, the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages were solid support points throughout 2017. Once Bitcoin touches the 200 day moving average (at a rate of less than once per year) historically it rebounds very, very strongly.
Edit: Made a typo. The orange text description should say "50 day moving average". Sorry!
Bitcoin 200 DMA with Relative PriceThis charts also shows the 200 day moving average of bitcoin so you can use: BITCOIN MAYER MULTIPLE to know if it’s a good moment to buy. The indicator says pretty much that is good to buy below 2.4X, the lower the better as an investor. More info about this here: www.theinvestorspodcast.com
USD/CHF Swissy longer term short play off 200dmaWe got a lovely rejection wick off the daily on Friday and it beautifully bounced off the 200dma and a falling trend line. Great bit of confluence. Stops above that wick and shoot for a 50% retrace on that type of move the 50 back gives us a RR ratio of 3.5-1. Might even get down to previous lows if wanted to stretch for longer targets but don't be greedy.
A POSITIVE MOVING AVERAGE CROSS FOR GMOn March 24, 2017 the General Motors Company (GM), crossed above its 150 day moving average. Historically this has occurred 20 times since 2010. When this happens, the stock gains a minimum of 0.475%, has a median gain of 5.466% and maximum gain of 16.159% over the next 24 trading days. On March 23, 2017, the stock broke below the 150 moving average and broke above the moving average on the following day. This has occurred three times since August 2016 and the stock gained 6.686%, 5.674% and 16.159%.
Current General Motors chart from TradingView
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 32.6033. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock just flirted with the oversold mark and may begin to move upward.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -5.3793. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward which could be skewed due to the market drop on March 21. Even though it is pointing downward four of the last five times it was near this level, the stock reversed upward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, but it is near the reverse point where the stock normally goes up big.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending upward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could gain at least another 7.86% over the next four weeks.
DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I most likely will not enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.
IMPORTANT MA CROSS FOR USO FUNDOn March 24, 2017 the United States Oil Fund USO, 200 daily moving average crossed below the 250 daily moving average. Historically this has occurred 10 times. When this happens, the ETF drops a minimum of 0.151%, has a median drop of 2.214% and maximum drop of 10.623% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred December 8, 2014 and the fund dropped 67.92% over 296 trading days until it hit the bottom.
Current USO chart from TradingView
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 29.0332. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund is nearing oversold territory, however, the fund recently hit the oversold level and is slightly heading upward from a 23.5711 level on March 14, 2017.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -30.2018. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3201. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term fund direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the fund could drop 1.93% before turning upward again.
NEXT 6 TRADING DAYS FOR US STEELOn March 24, 2017 the United States Steel (X), crossed below its 100 day moving average. Historically this has occurred 152 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.249% and maximum drop of 31.518% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred twice in October 2016 and the stock dropped 12% over the following 6 trading.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 37.0645. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is looking for direction and has been heading downward since February 21.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.6478. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1048. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, with the most recent highly negative reading being 1.3075 on August 25, 2016.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could drop another 4% before turning upward again. A recently held support area exists at 31.33
USO at 200DMA, observing resistanceDefinitely bearish feelings here, $DXY has found support the past week and along with the small recent USD rally we find $USO has run up against the 200DMA.
The 10DMA (drawn in blue) has provided support in the past, so waiting for a break down there would be wise IMHO, although I suspect we're about to roll out the red carpet soon.
The previous oil chart I did calling for a short bounce lasted longer than I suspected, as $DXY has been weak since the beginning of the year and has just started to find something that resembles strength.
Thanks for reading, good luck to all
RSI, channel, DMA analysisCheck chart for notes, not much to say besides bearish longer term, could see a bounce up to around $2 soon as OIL seems to be finding support.
Could easily find a 50% swing up before meeting the major resistance. But would set tight stops as the channel is bearish and the yellow trend looks like it could slap it back down.
RSI looks to be diverging as well (magenta lines)
I'm bearish for longer (month/2 month) swings, and bullish for ~1 week swing
Drag the chart in order to see the May 2013 for the purple bull range on the RSI