BTC is not gonna make it this time!BTC is currently pathetically trying to take a new Higher-high but it won't make it due to the lack of buying power, pressure from CME and CBOE.
The former one (buying power) is obvious. Take a look at MACD, RSI Stoch and you will clearly see an immense divergence. Concerning the Bitfinex Long/Short indicator we can see how longs are being closed during this market rally. Curretly almost 11,500 contracts have been closed. Moreover, Shorts are rising on a market rally. Indeed, that is not typical for a crowd. We can rarely see how longs are being closed while the market is showing some hope. I spotted such cases several times:
Concerning the situation around BTC futures market:
1) Spreading at CME is high (known as hedging) = 295 contracts
2) SHORT commercial (he never made a mistake since June 2018) is still holding his hedge position. Once he closes at least
40% we can talk about surge to 5k. I bet this happens once we break 4300$ level and consolidate.
3) Leveraged funds are BIG short
4) Asset Managers are also short, but last week we saw + Longs. Though, Shorts overweight Longs a lot!
To conclude. I really think that we are about to fall back to 3600$. Probably even breaking the line further way down. We well act accordingly. At the moment now purchasing power is extremely weak.
