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Daily Market Update for 7/9Summary: Friday brought a confident end to a short but volatile week. After the bond yield slide caused a sell-off the previous day, yields recovered, and investors moved back into equities. In contrast to Thursday, all sectors closed with gains on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 9, 2021 Facts: +0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 98% Good: Close above the weekly open, high closing range, A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body, slightly longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 2.51, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.13%), DJI (+1.30%), RUT (+2.17%), VIX (-14.94%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.89%) and Energy (XLE +2.13%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.34%) and Utilities (XLU +0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Friday brought a confident end to a short but volatile week. After the bond yield slide caused a sell-off the previous day, yields recovered, and investors moved back into equities. In contrast to Thursday, all sectors closed with gains on Friday. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.98% advance, with gains broadly shared across the index. There were five advancing stocks for every declining stock. The only thing missing was the volume which was much lower than the previous day. Nonetheless, the high closing range of 95% and the green body that spans 78% of the candle are bullish. It also helps close the week with a positive weekly gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed the best for the day as investors swung back into small caps. The index gained +2.17% but still closed with a weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) soared back to another set of record closes with +1.30% and +1.13% gains today. The VIX volatility index declined -14.94%. All sectors gained today, and cyclical sectors moved back to the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF +2.89%) and Energy (XLE +2.13%) were at the top of the list, followed by Materials (XLB +1.97%) and Industrials (XLI +1.58%). Health (XLV +0.34%) and Utilities (XLU +0.12%) were at the bottom of the list, as investors did not take defensive positions heading into the weekend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.27% for the day. Bond yields recovered from the previous day's drop. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Both are in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.82%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +1.50%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.735. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM Exposure Index shows money managers at 82.54 average exposure among active money managers. The survey occurs on Wednesdays, so the number does not include any of the selling on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) climbed back to all-time highs with a +1.31% advance on Friday. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.38%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.19%. Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to decline for the day, losing -0.32% but still very extended above moving average lines. Big banks led the mega-cap list, with Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) gaining more than 3%. Also in the top four were Alibaba (BABA) and ASML Holding (ASML). At the bottom of the list were Eli Lilly (LLY), Comcast (CMCSA), and Amazon (AMZN). The handful of losers in the mega-cap list all lost less than 1%. There were also only a handful of losers in the daily update growth list. The top gainers were Snowflake (SNOW), SNAP (SNAP), Chewy (CHWY), and Upwork (UPWK). At the bottom of the list were Peloton (PTON), Zynga (ZNGA), Etsy (ETSY), and DocuSign (DOCU) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The USDA will release the monthly agriculture supply and demand estimate report on Monday. Investors will also watch the 10y and 3y note auction closely in the afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday, but that will change by Tuesday as earnings season kicks off next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq was able to close with a weekly gain, recovering from yesterday's losses. It's in a position to make another new all-time high in the next week if trends continue. The one-day trend line points to a +0.85% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +0.30% gain. The five-day trend line leads to a -0.45% loss to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After a "the sky is falling" moment with bond yields on Thursday, everything seemed to be back to normal on Friday. The thesis that bond traders were covering for short positions seemed to be correct. The performance of the treasury note auctions on Monday afternoon will be a better signal of the health of the bond market. Based on the two thick-bodied, green candles on Thursday and Friday, the expectation is for Higher on Monday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/8Summary: Is it a pullback from a new high and or the start of a more significant correction? You won't find any easy answers in the data. A few weeks ago, investors were worried about an overheating economic recovery, and now they seem worried about a slowing recovery. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 8, 2021 Facts: -0.72%, Volume lower, Closing range: 79%, Body: 63% Good: Closed above 14,500 support area, lower volume on down day Bad: Gap down at open, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Large green body in the middle of two short wicks, the upper wick is slightly longer Advanced/Decline: 0.37, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.86%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-0.94%), VIX (+17.27%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.09%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.29%) and Financials (XLF -2.00%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Is it a pullback from a new high and or the start of a more significant correction? You won't find any easy answers in the data. A few weeks ago, investors were worried about an overheating economic recovery, and now they seem worried about a slowing recovery. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.72% decline on lower volume. The gap-down at open looked severe and dropped the index below the 14,500 support area, but a mid-day rally brought it back above the support line. The rally created a 63% green body. Prices faded in the late afternoon to create an upper wick and finish the day with a 79% closing range. The lower high and lower low combination is the first in several weeks of gains. The advance/decline line remains low, with almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.86%, recovering after nearly dropping below its 21d EMA. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.75%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) seems to be in the most trouble, with a decline of -0.94% today. The VIX volatility index soared +17.27%. All sectors lost ground today, and cyclical sectors moved back to the bottom of the sector list. Real Estate (XLRE -0.09%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%), and Utilities (XLU -0.29%) were at the top of the list. Industrials (XLI -1.29%) and Financials (XLF -2.00%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.37% for the day. The big news today was the continued slide of government bond yields worldwide. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields continue to decline as the gap between long-term and short-term yields tighten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced slightly. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.26%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -8.38%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.665. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved much further to the fear side. The NAAIM Exposure Index shows money managers at 82.54 average exposure among active money managers. The survey occurs on Wednesdays, so the number does not include any of the selling on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.94% today, helping the Consumer Discretionary sector to remain high in the sector list. The other three largest mega-caps declined but remain extended above moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the closest to its moving average lines, falling -1.13% today. Apple (AAPL) pulled back -0.92% after several days of rally. Microsoft (MSFT) is also pulling back from a new all-time high, losing -0.90% today. Only a handful of mega-caps gained today. Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Novartis AG (NVS) topped the mega-cap list. Alibaba (BABA) the worst-performing in the list as Chinese stocks continue to sell-off. AT&T (T), Bank of America (BAC), and ASML Holding (ASML) were others at the bottom of the list. The daily update growth list also had more losers than gainers. The most significant gains included Etsy (ETSY), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Fastly (FSLY), and Tesla (TSLA). Alibaba (BABA), FUTU Holding (FUTU), D.R. Horton (DHI), and SNAP (SNAP) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Fed will release its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Friday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened below the 14,500 support area this morning. It rallied back above the level by the end of the day. In the morning volatility, 14,425 also emerged as an area of support. The one-day trend lien points to a +1.15%, which would continue the recovery from today's low at market open. The trend line from the 5/12 low is just below that target. The five-day trend line leads to a +0.50% gain for tomorrow. There's still potential for a further pullback, so I added a trend-line that follows from yesterday's high and ends with a -0.95% loss for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Attention was on sliding government bond yields today. The slide in long-term yields typically indicates less confidence in future economic growth. But as with most economic indicators this year, there may be more to the story. Some argue that investors were heavily shorting bond prices (prices move in the opposite direction of yields). They expected yields to rise as the economy continues to overheat and people dump the bonds to find inflation-protected gains elsewhere. Recent economic data showed a slower than expected recovery and caused the trade to go against them. The resulting purchases to cover short positions sent yields even lower. As we saw earlier in the year, volatility in bonds will cause volatility in equities as well. So over the next few days, we will watch to see if investors are correcting for a change in the pace of the recovery or are more severe fears about the future driving the behavior. With the lower high and lower low, the expectation for tomorrow remains sideways or lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/7Summary: Investors rotated back to cyclical stocks after they underperformed yesterday. Mega-caps also did well on a day with no huge surprises in economic news. Jobs data was a bit lower than expected, but not bad, and there were no unexpected statements in the Fed minutes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 7, 2021 Facts: +0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 28%, Body: 51% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning high, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large red body with no upper wick, lower wick created from a morning dip Advanced/Decline: 0.33, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-0.95%), VIX (-1.46%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.04%) and Industrials (XLI +1.00%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.15%) and Energy (XLE -1.63%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors rotated back to cyclical stocks after they underperformed yesterday. Mega-caps also did well on a day with no huge surprises in economic news. Jobs data was a bit lower than expected, but not bad, and there were no unexpected statements in the Fed minutes. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.01% gain, carried mainly by mega-caps. There continues to be a much higher number of declining stocks than advancing stocks, with a ratio of 3 to 1 today. The closing range of 28% follows a morning gap-up that quickly sold off to create a long lower wick. The index recovered some of the loss, leaving a 51% red body over the long lower wick. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better with +0.34% and +0.30% gains today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.95%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.46%. Cyclical sectors moved back to the top of the sector list, with Materials (XLB +1.04%) and Industrials (XLI +1.00%) leading the day. Communications (XLC -0.15%) and Energy (XLE -1.63%) were at the bottom of today's list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.17% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields continue to decline as the gap between long-term and short-term yields tighten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) remained flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) continues to decline off recent highs. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.53%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.04%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.629. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving further from neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps continue to advance with gains today, but the charts start to look overly extended from moving averages. Apple (AAPL) gained another +1.80% today, setting a record close. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.82%. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had advances but could not hold onto intraday gains, ending the day with +0.57% and +0.23% gains. Oracle (ORCL) topped the mega-cap list today, with Apple (AAPL), PayPal (PYPL), and Adobe (ADBE) filling out the top four. At the bottom of the list are Exxon Mobile (XOM), Nvidia (NVDA), Alibaba (BABA), and Tesla (TSLA). The majority of the daily update growth list lost for the day. However, there were several gainers with SUMO Digital (SUMO), Snowflake (SNOW), RH (RH), and D.R. Horton (DHI) topping the list. At the bottom of the list are Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), NIO (NIO), and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims and weekly Crude Oil Inventories data will be available on Thursday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Just as yesterday, the Nasdaq set a new all-time high after opening but then sold off quickly. The five-day trend line points to a +0.49% gain for Thursday. The trend line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.16% gain. The one-day trend line is downward sloping and points to a -0.04% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up As rotations go, yesterday's sell-off of cyclical sectors became today's buying opportunity. Big tech mega-caps are mainly driving the gains in the Nasdaq. The advance/decline ratio hasn't been over 1.0 since 6/24. With increasing volatility in the intraday chart and the advance/decline ratio remaining low, it’s a good time for caution. However, the index continues to ride the mid-point of an upward regression trend channel from 5/12, so more gains could be ahead. The expectation is set for sideways or lower tomorrow. Surprise me. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/6Summary: It was a roller-coaster day for the market as prices dipped in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. Investors reacted to the Purchasing Managers index data that indicates the economic recovery may be slowing. Although the Nasdaq could finish the day with a small gain, most stocks across the index declined for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 6, 2021 Facts: +0.17%, Volume higher, Closing range: 85%, Body: 1% Good: High closing range, long lower wick shows recovery from dip Bad: Volatile outside day with doji star candle, bearish pattern Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Doji star candle with longer lower wick, outside day Advanced/Decline: 0.3, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.60%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+9.08%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.89%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.75%) and Energy (XLE -3.25%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a roller-coaster day for the market as prices dipped in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. Investors reacted to the Purchasing Managers index data that indicates the economic recovery may be slowing. Although the Nasdaq could finish the day with a small gain, most stocks across the index declined for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.17% gain, beginning the day with a gap at open but quickly selling off in the morning. Eventually, the bulls came in and brought the index back just above where it opened. The volume was higher than the previous day, and the mid-day reversal ended with a high 85% closing range. The close, being just above the open, created a slim 1% body. The outside day, doji star candle signals a bearish reversal pattern. Despite the gain in the index, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a -0.20% loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) retreated -0.60%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.36%. The VIX volatility index rose +9.08% for the day. It was up almost 20% intraday. Real Estate (XLRE +0.89%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) were the top sectors, signaling a defensive stance from investors. Interestingly, the growth sectors of Technology (XLK +0.38%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.12%) were the only other two sectors to gain for the day, helping the Nasdaq finish higher. Financials (XLF -1.57%) and Energy (XLE -3.25%) were the only two declining sectors. The Financial sector is down as yields on the 10y Treasury Note continue to drop, bringing interest rates down and taking away revenue potential for big banks. The Energy sector dropped as OPEC was unable to get agreement from Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. on output. The disagreement is bringing volatility to the sector that investors likely want to avoid. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced -0.34% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields dropped to their lowest point since February. The 2y Treasury yield also declined today, but not as much as longer-term yields, tightening the gap. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +1.16%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +5.27%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.694. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving further from neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders To find out what made the index move up, look no further than the four largest mega-caps. Amazon (AMZN) had a massive gain of +4.69% after the Pentagon decided to cancel the exclusive $10b cloud contract with Microsoft and split it across major cloud providers, including Amazon. It wasn't great news for Microsoft (MSFT), but the tech giant avoided a significant loss, closing with a 0% daily move. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.47% for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.74%. Amazon (AMZN) topped the mega-cap list, followed by Oracle (ORCL), which also stands to benefit from the new opportunities in government cloud contracts. Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX) were third and fourth best performers on the list. It was a day for big tech, while most mega-caps gained for the day. Only Oracle (ORCL) topped the four largest mega-caps in daily gains, advancing +2.87%. Alibaba (BABA), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Berkshire Hathaway (NRK) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC), Alibaba (BABA), Tesla (TSLA), and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Despite the low advance/decline ratio, the daily update growth list had plenty of winners. At the top of the list are GrowGeneration (GRWG), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Chewy (CHWY), and Zscaler (ZS), all with greater than 4% gains. Chinese stocks dominated the bottom of the list as the Chinese government cracks down on Didi and has its eyes on more regulation of Internet companies. JD.com (JD), Ehang Holdings (EH), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and UP Fintech (TIGR) all lost more than 5% for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The JOLTs Job Openings report for May will be available on Wednesday morning. In the afternoon, the FOMC will release the meeting minutes from last month. Investors will be interested to see what concerns remain around inflation and employment. The API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time high before dipping in the morning. The mid-day upside reversal came above the 14,500 support area. All three trend lines point to nearly the same place, with a decline between -0.03% and -0.22%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The ISM purchasing managers index data released today showed that the economic recovery might be slowing. That is a bad sign for cyclicals. But is it a good sign for big tech and growth stocks? It could be. If the recovery is slowing but still progressing, that will take some inflationary pressures out of the picture. It will also keep interest rates lower in the near term. Inflation and high-interest rates are the biggest evil for technology and growth stocks. The ISM reading today was at 60.1 compared to an expectation of 63.5. The lower-than-expected reading is indicating a more slowly expanding economy. But the reading above 50 indicates the economy is still expanding. If you disregard the last three exceptional months, the last time the indicator was above 60 was in 2018. Still, it does not mean these sectors shield investors from a slowdown in the recovery. Investors will be looking at the Fed meeting minutes released tomorrow for any clues on monetary policy changes. Those hints of changes amid a shift in the economic picture could spread the worries further into the market. Based on the candle, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/2Summary: The market gave a big yes to the jobs data but focused investors on mega-caps and leaving small-caps behind. Volume was low, and trading was concentrated into big tech, sending the Technology sector higher. Three of the major indexes had record closes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 2, 2021 Facts: +0.81%, Volume lower, Closing range: 92% (w/gap), Body: 60% Good: High closing range, large green body, higher high, higher low Bad: Lower volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up with higher high and higher low Advanced/Decline: 0.39, five declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.75%), DJI (+0.44%), RUT (-1.01%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.32) and Health (XLV +0.96) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.11%) and Energy (XLE -0.22%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market gave a big yes to the jobs data but focused investors on mega-caps and leaving small-caps behind. Volume was low, and trading was concentrated into big tech, sending the Technology sector higher. Three of the major indexes had record closes. The Nasdaq closed at another all-time high with a +0.81% advance. The day was dominated by buyers, producing a 60% green body and 92% closing range with the gap at open. However, volume was lower than the previous day, and there were five declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also had record-high closes, advancing +0.75% and +0.44%, respectively. Small-caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) did not do so well, with the index declining -1.01% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -2.52%. Technology (XLK +1.32) and Health (XLV +0.96) were the top sectors for the day. Financials (XLF -0.11%) and Energy (XLE -0.22%) were the only two declining sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.31% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined today. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +0.74%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.24%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.617. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, close to neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps all had considerable gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +2.30%. Amazon (AMZN) rose +2.27%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +2.23%. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.96%. It was a day for big tech, while most mega-caps gained for the day. Only Oracle (ORCL) topped the four largest mega-caps in daily gains, advancing +2.87%. Alibaba (BABA), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Berkshire Hathaway (NRK) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The daily update growth stock list was a mix of gainers and losers. Top gainers included Paycom (PAYC), Upwork (UPWK), DataDog (DDOG), and Enphase(ENPH). Digital Turbine (APPS), Lemonade (LMND), Fastly (FSLY), and UP Fintech (TIGR) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Monday for the July 4th holiday. Tuesday will open the trading week with Purchasing Managers Index data for Services and Non-Manufacturing Employment. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update next week. A quiet period before the Financial sector kicks off earnings season the following week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued to push the ATH line higher, closing Friday near the mark. The one-day trend line points to a +0.42% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend-line and trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a -0.24% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The jobs data put investors focus on the big mega-caps for Friday, advancing the largest cap stocks while rotating out of the smaller cap stocks. Lop-sided rotations are typically reversed in the following days, either by the rest of the market catching up or by the market pulling back some before advancing again. Based on the chart, the expectation is for higher or sideways on Tuesday. However, the index may want to come back down to the 14,500 area, filling today's opening gap and building more support before moving up. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/1Summary: While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 1, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30% Good: High closing range after morning dip, higher high Bad: Dip below 14,500 creating lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day follows an inside day, signals continuation Advanced/Decline: 0.80, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.38%), RUT (+0.81%), VIX (-2.34%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.74%) and Utilities (XLU +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.13% gain after dipping in the morning. The morning dip created a long lower wick for the candle and a lower low for the day compared to the previous day. However, the index recovered and also made a new high. The body is 30% and longer than the previous day, creating a bullish outside day. That is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend but will need to be confirmed tomorrow after the jobs data. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes today, gaining +0.81%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52%, setting yet another record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.38%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.34%. Energy (XLE +1.74%) was at the top of the sector list. Utilities (XLU +1.09%) and Health (XLV +0.89%) were second and third, signaling some defensiveness in the market. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.19% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -4.20%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -7.41%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.561. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 91.72. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined for the day, losing -0.21%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.29%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +0.26% and Apple (AAPL) gained +0.23%. Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), Facebook (FB), and Mastercard (MA) were the top mega-cap gainers. The top losers for mega-caps were Walmart (WMT), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), and Alibaba (BABA). The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list were losers for the day. The biggest gainers were GrowGeneration (GRWG), Lemonade (LMND), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Paycom (PAYC). The biggest losers were Roku (ROKU), Palantir (PLTR), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More economic data becomes available on Friday. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate will provide insights into the labor market recovery. Trade Balance data will also be released. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 14,500 support area in the morning. However, it closed back above the area by the end of the session. The five-day trend-line and trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.34% advance for Friday. The one-day trend line results in a -0.02% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up All eyes this week are on Friday's job data. It seems the Nasdaq will decide which direction to move after seeing the data. With the morning dip resulting in buying that brought the index back above 14,500, the expectation is sideways or higher tomorrow. However, the jobs data may just bust that expectation. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/30Summary: Solid economic recovery data sent the cyclical sectors higher today while other sectors saw modest gains. Data included positive Nonfarm Employment change, Pending Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories. After an indecisive candle yesterday, the S&P 500 set a new record to close the quarter. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 30, 2021 Facts: -0.17%, Volume higher, Closing range: 53%, Body: 12% Good: Higher low Bad: Lower high, thin red body, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Indecisive candle with a thin red body in between two equal wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.58, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.13%), DJI (+0.61%), RUT (+0.07%), VIX (-1.19%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.24%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.78%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.19%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Solid economic recovery data sent the cyclical sectors higher today while other sectors saw modest gains. Data included positive Nonfarm Employment change, Pending Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories. After an indecisive candle yesterday, the S&P 500 set a new record to close the quarter. The Nasdaq finished with a -0.17% decline on higher volume. The closing range of 53% is right at the middle of the candle, with a thin 12% red body in the middle of equal length wicks. The "spinning top" candle signals indecision in the market, where both buyers and sellers are active during the trading session. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (SPX) had a similar indecisive spinning top candle yesterday but made a positive move to close the quarter at an all-time high, advancing +0.13% today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.61%, thanks to a resurgence in cyclical stocks and recovery stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.07%. The VIX volatility index advanced -1.19%. Energy (XLE +1.24%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.78%) topped the sector list, while the next three were the other cyclical sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.19%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.31% for the day. The US 30y Treasury yield gained white the 10y stayed the same, and the 2y declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained slightly while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) retreated from record highs. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +4.12%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.84%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.557. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) gained +0.46%, the only of the four largest mega-caps to advance today. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.15%. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.18%. Amazon (AMZN) fell -0.23%. All remained above the key moving average lines. Walmart (WMT) gained +2.71% today, topping the mega-cap list and helping send the Consumer Staples sector higher. Walt Disney (DIS), Chevron (CVX), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the next three best performers in the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list are Abbot Labs (ABT), Alibaba (BABA), Facebook (FB), and ASML Holding (ASML). On the daily update growth list, most stocks declined for the day. The top winners include NIO (NIO), Roku (ROKU), Ehang Holdings (EH), and Etsy (ETSY). At the bottom of the list are DoorDash (DASH), which topped the list yesterday, Workday (WDAY), Fiverr (FVRR), and MongoDB (MDB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday's economic data includes Initial Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Walgreens Boots (WBA) releases earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance There seems that support is forming at 14,500. The index has only been above the area for two days, but there were four tests of the support intraday today. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.54% gain for Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.24% advance. The one-day trend line results in a +0.06% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seemed yesterday that the momentum was waning in tech and growth stocks that dominate the Nasdaq. So it was time today for cyclical sectors to get some attention. The rotation was not oversized and did not fundamentally change uptrends for the index or the big mega-caps. Based on the indecisive candle, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. The market needs to decide if it wants to go higher or lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/28Summary: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher today, setting more records, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 took a step back. New fears of pandemic lockdowns in Asia sent Energy and Industrial stocks lower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 28, 2021 Facts: +0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 95%, Body: 94% Good: Very bullish candle on sets a new all-time high Bad: Lower volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with no lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.59, three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.23%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.52%), VIX (+0.90%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) at top. Financials (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -2.28%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher today, setting more records, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 took a step back. New fears of pandemic lockdowns in Asia sent Energy and Industrial stocks lower. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.98% gain, producing a bullish green candle that is primarily green body with no lower wick and a small upper wick. Volume was lower than Friday, but Friday's volume was exceptionally high. The closing range of 95% shows bullish support into the close. Other than a slight dip in the early afternoon, investors were in a buying mood all day. Still, there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23%, carried higher by big tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.44%, weighed down by the Energy and Industrial sectors. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.52%, following through with a bearish candle on Friday that produced a long upper wick. The VIX volatility index advanced +0.90%. Communications (XLC +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) were the top-performing sectors for the day. Utilities (XLU +0.64%) led briefly in the morning before being overtaken by Technology. Communications took the lead late in the day after a judge threw out antitrust cases by the FTC against Facebook. Financials (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -2.28%) were at the bottom of today's sector list. Industrials (XLI -0.53%) were also near the bottom. New pandemic lockdown fears impacted the three sectors. It is also likely that investors are taking profits in these sectors to close the quarter. They are also moving back into growth stocks which analysts expect to have strong quarterly results. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.08% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined just slightly for the day. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.61%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced -5.00%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.574. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Although Alphabet (GOOGL) struggled to end with a +0.2% advance, all four largest mega-caps had gains for the day. Alphabet gained in the afternoon along with the Communications sector by the Facebook news. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had identical gains of +1.25%. Finally, Microsoft (MSFT) ticked off another new all-time high and closed with a +1.40% gain. Nvidia (NVDA), Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), and Abbot Labs (ABT) topped the mega-cap list. Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Exxon Mobile (XOM), and Chevron (CVX) were at the bottom of the list. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list advanced. Ehang Holdings (EH) and Grow Generation (GRWG) topped the list with greater than 11% gains. NIO (NIO) and Etsy (ETSY) were also in the top four. At the bottom of the list were Penn National Gaming (PENN), JD.com (JD), SNAP (SNAP), and Sumo Digital (SUMO). Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) lost -7.04%. Delta Airlines (DAL) declined -2.95%. Avis (CAR) dropped -3.15%. That's representative of the new pandemic lockdown fears impacting these recovery stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence numbers for June will be released on Tuesday, after the market open. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had a small gap up today and a solid move above 14,500. That area may need to be tested again before going higher. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.29% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line results in a +0.12% gain. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a -0.34% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We saw today a strong follow-thru of last week's gains in the Nasdaq. Big tech and growth stocks drove the small gap-up and all-day bullish activity, but stocks did not broadly share the gains. The decliners outnumbering the advancers was likely due to the pandemic fears and some investors taking profits as the quarter ends. Based on the chart, the expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. However, the pandemic fears won't resolve overnight, and there may be more profit-taking as the quarter ends. Nevertheless, the moves into big tech and growth stocks should hold as investors made those moves in anticipation of a strong quarterly earnings season which is still a few weeks off for those companies. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/25Summary: The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 25, 2021 Facts: -0.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 32%, Body: 57% Good: Sideways trading with the high/low range of previous day Bad: Lower high, drop on high volume, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly red body with small upper and lower wicks, lower wick is slightly longer Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (+0.69%), RUT (+0.03%), VIX (-2.19%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.21%) and Utilities (XLU +1.07%) at top. Materials (XLB +0.01%) and Technology (XLK -0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. The Nasdaq traded inside the previous day's high and low range and closed lower by the end of the day. The 57y% red body is in the upper part of the candle. The index formed the longer lower wick in morning volatility that set the intraday high and intraday low within the first hour of the trading session. The closing range of 32% is low. The big spike in volume was due to the Russell 3000 rebalancing activity. As a result, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) had another record close, after a 0.33% gain for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gapped up at the market open and ended the day with a +0.69% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) could not hold onto intraday gains, ending the day with just a +0.03% advance. The VIX volatility index declined -2.19%. Another lowest close since the start of the pandemic. Financials (XLF +1.21%) continued to make gains as Treasury yields begin to recover. Utilities (XLU +1.07%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.77%) were second and third on the sector list, showing some defensive stance in the market. Only the Technology (XLK -0.12%) sector closed the day with a loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained for the day. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -8.81%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -8.98%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.567. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) held onto a slight gain, advancing +0.01%. Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.38%, the second day of losses and nearing the 21d EMA line. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.63%. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.22%. Nike (NKE) soared above the other mega-caps with a +15.53% gain on a massive revenue surprise. Alibaba (BABA), Bank of America (BAC), and Netflix (NFLX) were also in the top four. Amazon (AMZN), ASML Holding (ASML), PayPal (PYPL), and Eli Lilly (LLY) were the bottom four mega-caps for the day. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list declined, but there were still quite a few winners. Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Enphase (ENPH) were at the top of the list. At the bottom of the list were Square (SQ), Digital Turbine (APPS), Upwork (UPWK), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Fed member John Williams will speak on Monday morning as the market is opening. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq traded flat today, with the high and low within the previous day's high and low. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.00% gain for Monday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.32%. The one-day trend-line would continue the fade from Thursday's high and result in a -0.10% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This week, the Nasdaq gained +2.35%, a significant move that included new all-time highs and record closes. So it is ok if there is a slight pause to end the week. The day had mixed economic news, but it also had the Russell 3000 rebalance that added huge volume and unknowns to the market. Investors got defensive, moving into sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples. Look for some of that defense to turn back into offense on Monday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/24Summary: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 24, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume lower, Closing range: 54% (w/gap), Body: 15% Good: Low above yesterday's high creates bullish rising window, high A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body near middle of candle, gap up at open, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.79, Three gaining stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.58%), DJI (+0.95%), RUT (+1.31%), VIX (-2.15%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) at top. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) at bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap-up and ended with a +0.69% gain. Like yesterday, it could not hold an intraday high set mid-day, retreating near the opening price. The 15% green body is under a 54% closing range. The two-day rising window pattern is a bullish continuation pattern. Three stocks advanced for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed best among the major indices for another day, gaining +1.31% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.58%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.95%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.15%. Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) sectors topped the sector list today. Only two sectors, Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.03%. The US 30y Treasury bond yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields advanced. Yields overall remain steady after last week's reaction to the Fed. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained for the day and are nearing levels not seen since before the pandemic. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices also gained today. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.47%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.42%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.540. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.53% and +0.31% for the day. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.22%. Amazon (AMZN) pulled back -1.56% after gaining over 10% in the last few weeks. Eli Lilly (LLY), Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), and PayPal (PYPL) were the top mega-caps for the day. Only a handful of mega-caps declined for the day, with Mastercard (MA), Apple (AAPL), Oracle (ORCL), and Amazon (AMZN) at the bottom of the list. The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list had gains today. At the top of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), Upwork (UPWK), Peloton (PTON), and Fastly (FSLY). Conversely, the worst performing for the day was Ehang Holding (EH), Beyond Meat (BYND), RH (RH), and MongoDB (MDB). Nike (NKE) shares soared 14% higher in after-hours trading. The company had a massive surprise on revenue over analyst estimates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More consumer pricing data released on Friday morning will give another boost to inflation worries but may be tempered by the fact that the Fed is now willing to control inflation. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment are also important data to be available after the market opens. CarMax (KMX) earnings on Friday may be interesting given the rise in used car prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues its move higher, approaching 14,500. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.76% gain for Friday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to no gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line would continue the fade from today's highs and result in a -0.27% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors continue to be bullish this week, sending the index higher every day of the week. The chart would say that Friday will make it a perfect week with another gain. Volume should undoubtedly be higher tomorrow while the Russell 3000 (RUT) rebalances 10 trillion dollars. Still, after record-setting closes, there shouldn't be any surprise if investors take some profits here and we see some pullback. The expectation is for sideways or higher, but a healthy pullback is OK too. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/23Summary: Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 23, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 12% Good: New high, A/D over 1.0 Bad: Low closing range, weak volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the lower half of candle Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.21%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (-2.16%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. The Nasdaq gained +0.13%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin 12% body is in the lower half of the candle, resulting in a 36% closing range. The longer upper wick was formed in a rally just after the market opened, but the index could not hold onto the gains. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed best among the major indices today, gaining +0.33%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.21%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.16%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) topped the sector list today. The only other sector with gains was Financials (XLF +0.19%). Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.09%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.47%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.42%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio lowered to 0.518. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day but are still showing strength. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.21%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.17%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -0.09%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.05%. Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Walt Disney (DIS) were the top mega-caps today, all gaining over 1%. There were more decliners than gainers in the mega-cap list. Comcast (CMCSA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and PepsiCo (PEP) were at the bottom of the list. The daily update growth stock list had another day of broad gains. The big winners at the top of the list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Lemonade (LMND), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and SNAP (SNAP). At the bottom of the list were DocuSign (DOCU), CrowdStrike (CRWD), D.R. Horton (DHI), and DoorDash (DASH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead For Thursday, data will be available for Durable Goods Orders. GDP data for Q1 should not change much over previously released numbers. We will also get the Initial Jobless Claims data before the markets open. Finally, there are Fed Bank Stress Test results to be made available after the market closes. Earnings reports on Thursday will include Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Blackberry (BB), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The last two have been popular meme stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose to another new all-time high and continued with the third day of gains this week. All three trend lines point to gains for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line is the flattest, with a +0.05 increase for Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.36% gain, with the five-day trend-line coming in just under that mark. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The rally in the morning faded as more economic data became available and potentially traders took some profits. Several stocks entering the Russell 3000 list this week also had significant gains today, even though they don't officially join the indexes until Monday. Overall, it seems like a healthy pause after several days of market gains. Based on the long upper wick formed by the lost morning rally, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. But by all means, please do surprise me. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/22Summary: It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 22, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 77% Good: New all-time high, thick green body, small wicks Bad: A/D ratio, lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with short upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.74, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.51%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (+0.43%), VIX (-6.77%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. The Nasdaq gained +0.79% for the day and finished the day with its highest close since April. The closing range of 89% and 77% green body represents a bullish session that only paused mid-day to await Powell's comments. Despite the bullish day, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.51% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.20%. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all faded before close while the Russell 2000 (RUT) remained steady. The RUT closed with a +0.43% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -6.77%. The growth sectors topped the list today, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) at the top of the list. Only two sectors declined. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) closed lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.15%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined slightly. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.88%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.36%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio remained about the same at 0.582. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, continuing to show strength and helping the Nasdaq move higher. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.49%. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.27%. Microsoft (MSFT) reached another new all-time high with a +1.10% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) is nearing a new all-time high with a +0.43% gain today. Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the top mega-caps today. Most mega-caps had positive gains. The biggest losers were Novartis (NVS), Salesforce.com (CRM), Eli Lilly (LLY), and AT&T (T). However, their losses were all under 1%. Gainers also dominated the daily update growth list. Upwork (UPWK), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Peloton (PTON), and CrowdStrike (CRWD) had the most significant advances. SNAP (SNAP), Zynga (ZNGA), NIO (NIO), and Sumo Digital (SUMO) were at the bottom of the list. NIO and Sumo lost more than 5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager index data, released on Wednesday, gives a view on demand for products in services in their sectors. In addition, new Home Sales data will be available after the market open. Crude Oil Inventories data also comes on Wednesday, after the market opens. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above 14,200 after attempting to pass the resistance area a few times. We will watch for that area to become a support area if the index pulls back. The one-day trend-line shows another gain for tomorrow, an advance of +0.81%. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.25% gain. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.33% declined for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Two catalysts helped the index move higher today. More robust than expected existing home sales kicked off momentum in the morning. Then a well-received message from Jerome Powell helped in the afternoon. Powell stated that the Fed would not raise interest rates on inflation fears alone. They would need to see real inflation before considering policy change. That message resonates well. The Fed will not rush to raise rates but is also not going to let inflation run wild. This stance from the Fed is making global investors more confident in the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and likewise US equities. That confidence is healthy for the whole market, but especially growth stocks, sending the growth sectors and the Nasdaq higher. Given the momentum, the expectation is for higher tomorrow. Sideways would not be a huge surprise. If we see a pullback in the Nasdaq, then there is likely some catalyst driving people to safety or into sector rotation. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/21Summary: Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 21, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume higher, Closing range: 95%, Body: 49% Good: Higher high, long lower wick from bullish rebound off morning low Bad: Lower low, otherwise not much Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Half green body with long lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.03, One advancing stock for each declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.40%), DJI (+1.76%), RUT (+2.16%), VIX (-13.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.79% gain. The volume was lower than Friday's unusually high volume. The 49% body is in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed just after the market open. The index dropped after open, but found support around 14,000 and moved higher the rest of the day. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.76%, closing a gap down on Friday. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.40% and produced a Marubozu White bullish candle, forming no upper or lower wick. The Russell 2000 (RUT) erased Friday's loss with a +2.16% gain today. The VIX volatility index declined -13.66%. All sectors moved higher today, with cyclical sectors leading the list. Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were at the top of the list. Industrials (XLI +1.8%) and Materials (XLB +1.63%) were second and third. After heavy selling of cyclical sectors, we expected that some rotation back into these sectors would happen. These are still important sectors for a full economic recovery. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were at the bottom, marking fewer defensive moves than last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) pulled back a bit after gaining 2% last week. Today it declined -0.52%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose after declining last week. The 2y Treasury yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) rose. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) rose +2.33% after a few weeks of decline. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -9.62%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -14.92%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.585. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to decline today, losing -0.94% on Prime Day. Apple (AAPL) retested the 50d moving average line and then moved higher, gaining +1.41%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.23%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.42%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the list of mega-caps, filled with mostly gainers for today. Bank of America (BAC) and Oracle (ORCL) fill out the top four. At the bottom of the list were Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon, and Netflix (NFLX). The daily update growth list was divided almost evenly among gainers and losers. Ehang Holdings (EH), RH (RH), Roku (ROKU), and DoorDash (DOOR) were the top four, each gaining over 3.5% for the day. At the bottom of the list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Pinterest (PINS), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and CrowdStrike (CRWD). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Existing Home Sales for May gets released on Tuesday, after the market open. In the afternoon, Jerome Powell testifies before congress. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is updated after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support again at 14,000 and then headed back toward 14,200, range-bound for the past week. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 5/12 low point to a +0.82% advance on Tuesday would break the range and set a new all-time high. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.21% declined for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was a lot of debate over the weekend over the health of the markets. The story isn't over, but today was a move in the right direction toward a continued bull market with new support for growth after the Fed turned hawkish. For tomorrow, we'll look for sideways or higher. If higher, a clear break into a new all-time high on higher volume would be a clear bullish signal. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/18Summary: The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 18, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 55% Good: Held above yesterday's low, and above 14,000. Bad: Huge volume on move lower, low A/D Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with a thick red body, longer upper wick, low closing range Advanced/Decline: 0.3, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.31%), DJI (-1.58%), RUT (-2.17%), VIX (+16.74%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) were top. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.92% loss. Volume was much higher than the previous day due to the quadruple witching day when index futures, index options, individual stock futures, and stock options all expire on the same day. The closing range of 18% is below a red body with a visible lower wick and longer upper wick. The high is lower than the previous day, while the low is higher than the previous day, marking an inside day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed with a -1.58% decline today, finishing the worst weekly loss since October. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.31%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -2.17%. The gap down today and weekly loss on the DJI is something to keep an eye on. However, it is not a surprise that the DJI is falling rapidly among the US dollar's considerable gains. Large international companies benefit from a weaker dollar. The VIX volatility index advanced +16.74%. All sectors moved lower today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) topped the sector list with the smallest losses. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were the bottom two sectors. Financials (XLF -2.41%) is moving lower due to the lower yields in Treasuries. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened for a third day, rising +0.46%. It is up 2% for the week. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields continued to decline while the 2y Treasury yield rose. The spread between long-term and short-term Treasuries is tightening rapidly. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) continues to slide, dropping -1.51% today. Almost -5% for the week. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -5.93%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -6.07% -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.716. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) continues to show strength among the four largest mega-caps, declining only -0.07% today. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.56%. Apple (AAPL) fell -1.01%. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.34%. Only a handful of mega-caps gained for the day. At the top of the list are Adobe (ADBE), PayPal (PYPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX). The biggest losers today are Toyota Motor (TM ), ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Intel (INTC). The daily update growth list had more gainers than losers. Fiverr (FVRR), DocuSign (DOCU), Lemonade (LMND), and Roku (ROKU) led the list. At the bottom of the list are Beyond Meat (BYND), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Short-term Treasury Bill auctions are on Monday. Fed John Williams speaks on Monday afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to build support in the 14,000 to 14,200 trading range. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +1.52% advance on Monday and a new all-time high. The five-day trend-line ends with a +0.34% advance to start the week. The one-day trend-line points to a -0.25% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Quadruple witching always makes for a strange day in the markets and today was no exception. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), you'd think the market is crashing, and maybe it is. But if you look at the Nasdaq, you get a different story, closing the week with an inside day and still in an uptrend on the weekly chart. Looking at another view of what's going on, we can again visit the growth vs. value chart. The market could quickly reverse the move, but for now, growth is getting investors' intention again. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/17Summary: Technology stocks moved higher today, helping boost the Nasdaq while the other major indexes retreated. The mix of investments in growth sectors and defensive sectors show some indecision about the new Fed policy. At the same time, there was an apparent sell-off in cyclical sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 17, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume lower, Closing range: 82%, Body: 82% Good: High closing range after a dip mid-day. No lower wick. Bad: Resistance at 14,200, lower volume, A/D below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with no lower wick, high closing range under small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.57, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.04%), DJI (-0.62%), RUT (-1.18%), VIX (-2.21%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.16%) and Health (XLV +0.76%) were top. Financials (XLF -2.90%) and Energy (XLE -3.40%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Technology stocks moved higher today, helping boost the Nasdaq while the other major indexes retreated. The mix of investments in growth sectors and defensive sectors show some indecision about the new Fed policy. At the same time, there was an apparent sell-off in cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq advanced +0.87% while volume was lower than the previous day. The gains were steady through the morning before a dip mid-day. However, the index recovered and closed near intraday highs. The closing range of 82% matches an 82% body that left no lower wick. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The other major indexes didn't fare as well. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.62%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.04%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.21%. Technology (XLK +1.16%), Health (XLV +0.76%), and Utilities (XLU +0.55%) were the top three sectors for the day. The four cyclical sectors of Industrials (XLI -1.54%), Materials (XLB -2.23%), Financials (XLF -2.90%), and Energy (XLE -3.40%) all had significant declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened for another day, rising +0.55%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined. The 2y Treasury yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) continues to slide, dropping -1.96% today. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also declined significantly. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.67%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.19% -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.609. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the fear side of neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 98.52. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps gained on higher volume today, helping boost the Technology sector and the Nasdaq. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest move with a +2.17% advance. The stock gained nearly 10% in the last eight trading days, setting it toward new all-time highs. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.37%. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.26%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.80%. All four are showing strength, and trading above moving averages, a good sign for broader gains in the market. Nvidia (NVDA), PayPal (PYPL), Amazon, and Tesla (TSLA) were the top mega-caps gaining 2% or better. Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and Chevron (CVX) were the bottom four. Both ends of the mega-cap list closely reflect the sector list performance. Almost all of the growth stocks in the daily update list gained today. Sumo Digital (SUMO), Enphase (ENPH), Solar Edge (SEDG), and Cloudflare (NET) were the top four with over 6% gains. GrowGeneration (GRWG), RH (RH), and Penn National Gaming (PENN) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Friday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Hesitation before a new all-time high is causing a resistance area to form near 14,200. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.86% advance for Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.49% advance. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.16% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After yesterday's sudden sell-off and then recovery, following the Fed view on rate hikes in 2023, investor reactions were mixed today. The mix of investment in growth stocks and defensive stocks shows that not everyone is at the same comfort level with the Fed changing policy. One place they were very decisive was in the sell-off of cyclical sectors, some of which may be due to a drop in commodity futures as well. There are multiple factors at play beyond the interest rates and Fed outlook. The economy is still recovering, and cyclicals will continue to play in the recovery, so expect rotation back into those sectors at some point. For now, we have the long lower wick yesterday that followed through into gains today. To further confirm the continued uptrend, I'd expect to see the index move higher tomorrow. Otherwise, it would appear the optimism was short-lived, and there is more fear lurking around inflation and interest rate hikes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/16Summary: The Fed has spoken. The market came to life after the Fed pulled forward projected dates for interest rate hikes into 2023. As a result, the US Dollar spiked about 1%, long-term Treasury yields rose, and equities dropped. Equities found support after the initial reaction but couldn't quite recover all the losses. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 16, 2021 Facts: -0.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 60%, Body: 20% Good: Bounce off low in the afternoon to close back above 14,000 Bad: Big dip after fed news Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Slim red body in the upper half of a long candle. Long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.56, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (-0.77%), RUT (-0.23%), VIX (+6.64%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.05%) and Financials (XLF -0.11%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.33%) and Utilities (XLU -1.50%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed has spoken. The market came to life after the Fed pulled forward projected dates for interest rate hikes into 2023. As a result, the US Dollar spiked about 1%, long-term Treasury yields rose, and equities dropped. Equities found support after the initial reaction but couldn't quite recover all the losses. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.24% decline. That was better than the -1.20% intraday dip. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a long lower wick underneath a 20% body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range of 60% provides some positive ending to a day that ended in a loss. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.23%. The S&P 500 (SPX) slid -0.54%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.77%. The VIX volatility index rose +6.64%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.05%) was the only sector to have a gain for the day. Financials (XLF -0.11%) was the next best performer. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.33%) and Utilities (XLU -1.50%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.98%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. Shorter-term Treasuries sold off more than longer-term bonds, flattening the yield curve. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -4.52%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -7.00%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.677. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the fear side of neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was able to close with a +0.95% gain today. Apple (AAPL) dipped below its 50 MA but was able to close above the line with a decline of -0.39% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.38% and -0.53%. Amazon, Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor (TM ), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) topped the mega-cap list today. Most mega-caps declined for the day. Visa (V), Facebook (FB), Walmart (WMT), and Oracle (ORCL) were at the bottom of the list. Oracle declined 7% after disappointing investors with their current FY guidance. It recovered a bit before close, ending the day with a -5.59% loss. The daily update growth stock list was a mix of winners and losers today. Enphase (ENPH), Chewy (CHWY), MongoDB, and Solar Edge (SEDG) were the top gainers. At the bottom of the list were Facebook (FB), Ehang Holdings (EH), SNAP (SNAP), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data is expected to continue to improve on Thursday. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released before the market opens. Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL) release earnings on Thursday. The Jabil report will be before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped below the 14,000 support area but quickly recovered to close back above the area. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +1.08% advance for Thursday. The five-day trend-line ends with a +0.55% gain. The one-day trend-line points to a -1.05% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's hard to tell where investors are heading with the Fed news today. The infamous dot plots show more officials leaning toward 2023 interest rate hikes. And yet, the Fed reiterated its stance that it would wait until there was substantial further progress before introducing changes. The initial reaction was a sudden dip in the indexes, but then the prices recovered, heading into the close. Based on the Nasdaq chart, I've got an expectation for sideways or lower tomorrow. The long lower wick suggests a possibility for higher. But let's be honest. Who knows. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/15Summary: After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 15, 2021 Facts: -0.71%, Volume higher, Closing range: 17%, Body: 79% Good: Held above 14,000 support area Bad: Selling most of the day. Lower high and lower low. Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks. Advanced/Decline: 0.42, Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.27%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+3.72%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.71% loss for the day, on higher volume. The candle is predominantly a red body and represents selling throughout the day as the bears stepped in. The closing range of 17% is above a small lower wick formed from a small rally into the close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had the worst losses for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.27%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.26%. The VIX volatility index rose +3.72%. Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were the top gaining sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat with only a +0.01% advance. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields remained about the same while the 2y yield dropped. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.89%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -1.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.541. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined today, but all remain above their key 50 day moving average and 21d exponential moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.84%, Apple (AAPL) dropped -0.64%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.59%. Amazon (AMZN) lost just -0.02%. All of these declines were on lighter volume. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the mega-cap list with 3.6% and 2.2% gains. Toyota Motor (TM ) and AT&T (T) were the next two best-performing mega-caps. At the bottom of the list were Adobe (ADBE), Netflix (NFLX), Alibaba (BABA), and Tesla (TSLA). Only Pinterest (PINS) and D.R. Horton (DHI) gained for the day in the daily update growth stock list. The worst losers were Up Fintech (TIGR), with a -16.3% loss, Lemonade (LMND), Roku (ROKU), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data will be released in the morning on Wednesday. Crude Oil Inventories get an update after the market opens. The most important event for the week will come in the afternoon. The Fed will release Meeting Minutes and a Fed Interest Rate Decision at 2:00 pm. The Fed Economic Projections will follow that. Investors will watch these updates from the Fed very closely, and the reactions could be oversized in either direction. There are no significant earnings releases for this daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index remained above the 14,000 support area throughout the day. The five-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +067% advance for Wednesday. The one-day trend-line points to a -0.58% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I set the expectation for sideways yesterday, not sure which way the index would go based on several days of gains and resistance at the all-time high. Fear won out after the producer price index data was higher than expected. Based on the red candle, the expectation will be for Sideways or Lower, but the result really depends on the reaction to the Fed statements in the afternoon. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/14Summary: The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 14, 2021 Facts: +0.74%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 76% Good: High closing range, higher volume, large green body Bad: Advance/decline ratio below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick filled opening gap, thick green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.25%), RUT (-0.41%), VIX (+4.73%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.01%) and, Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. The index closed with a +0.75% gain on higher volume than Friday. The closing range reached 99% in the last 30 minutes of trading, while the 76% green body represents a steady climb throughout the day. The higher high marks the seventh session in a row to reach a higher high. The close is only 0.25% below a new all-time high. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at another all-time high with a +0.18% advance today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.25%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.41%. The VIX volatility index rose +4.73%. Technology (XLK +1.01%) and Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top, helped by mid and large-cap growth stocks. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were the bottom sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat with only a -0.01% decline. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields rose for a second day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined slightly. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +3.89%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.89%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.469. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side but still near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) broke out today with a +2.46% gain taking the price above the 50d MA. All four largest mega-caps are now above their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) added to recent gains with a +1.11% advance today. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.78%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.77%. Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce.com (CRM), Apple, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) topped the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list were Cisco Systems (CSCO), Bank of America (BAC), Pfizer (PFE), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM). Ehang Holdings (EH), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fastly (FSLY), and Square (SQ) were the top four growth stocks in the daily update list. At the bottom of the list were Sumo Digital (SUMO), Draft Kings (DKNG), Penn National Gaming (PENN), and Digital Turbine (APPS). The growth list is mostly advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data is scheduled for release on Tuesday. We will also get an update on Retail sales data. Both sets of data come before the market open. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will be released after the market close. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Oracle (ORCL), H&R Block (HRB), and La-Z-Boy (LZB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index came within 0.25% of a new all-time high today. Expect some resistance at the all-time high area before moving higher. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.13% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend-line leads to a small loss of -0.04%. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a -0.28% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The momentum for the Nasdaq continues, albeit at lower volume today. The index is getting close to a new all-time high where we can expect some resistance before it moves higher. The expectation is for sideways tomorrow. Higher would be a positive surprise and indicate a very bullish market. Lower will need to be evaluated but would likely come from caution as we head into the Fed comments on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/11Summary: The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 11, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 61% Good: 100% closing range with good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick under green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.2, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-2.79%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.35%, capping a week of gains that saw every day reach higher than the previous day. Volume was lower and faded in the last three days. Today's candle ended with a 100% closing range, thanks to a rally in the final 30 minutes of the session. The small lower wick is under a 61% green body. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.19%, closing the week near a new all-time high set yesterday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +1.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.06%. The VIX volatility index dropped another -2.79%., its lowest close in over a year. Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top, with growth stocks helping drive gains. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were at the bottom of the list after topping the sector list yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.50%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields climbed slightly after declining for several days. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices continued to advance. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +1.73%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.82%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.558. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the greed side but still near neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 79.65. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.98% and +0.25% today. While Microsoft is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA, Apple is still below the 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.08% after a big gain yesterday, bringing the stock above the key moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.20%. Nvidia (NVDA), Adobe (ADBE), Apple, and Intel (INTC) topped the mega-cap list, helping to boost tech stocks. At the bottom of the list were Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), suffering from a sell-off in the Health sector. Exxon Mobile (XOM) also showed up in the bottom four. UP Fintech (TIGR) and NIO (NIO) topped the daily update growth stock list. Both are Chinese companies. Peloton (PTON) and DoorDash (DASH) were in the top four of the list, which is mostly gainers for the day. At the bottom of the list were DraftKings (DKNG), Snowflake (SNOW), RH (RH), and Chewy (CHWY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index stayed above 14,000 today, helping build support at that level. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.31% gain for Monday. Following the trend-line from the 5/13 low would result in a +0.09% gain. The one-day trend line points to a slight -0.07% regression on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a great way to end the week with a 100% closing range on the daily and weekly charts. We got used to big swings to the upside in 2020 and early 2021. The gains we see now are slow and steady. Nevertheless, those gains are welcome and show deliberate investments vs. overly bullish gains from fear of missing out. Looking forward to next week, watch for the producer price index data on Tuesday and the Fed comments and meeting minutes on Wednesday as critical moments for the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/10Summary: Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 10, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 68% Good: High closing range, close above 14,000 Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, mostly green body with a longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.66, Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-0.68%), VIX (-10.0%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. The Nasdaq advanced +0.78% on lower volume and closed above 14,000. The candle is mostly green body with a short lower wick and even shorter upper wick. The high closing range of 91% and body of 68% is bullish, but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks and volume overall was lower. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) only advanced +0.06%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) pulled back with a -0.68% decline. The VIX volatility dropped -10.00%., its lowest close in over a year. Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) topped the sector list. Utilities (XLU +0.66%) was also in the top four. These three sectors at the top of the list would indicate caution in the market. However, mixed in to that is Technology (XLK +0.74%) and Communications (XLC +0.54%). Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were the bottom sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) dropped -0.09%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields continued to decline. The spread between long term and short term yields tightened to levels in early March. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.85%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.35%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.600. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 6.95. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) is the only one of the four largest mega-caps to decline today, with a -0.80% loss, and remaining below the 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.09% and moved above its 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.44% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.13%. Both Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Adobe (ADBE), Eli Lilly (LLY), ASML Holding (ASML) and PayPal (PYPL) were the top four mega-caps. Most mega-caps gained for the day. At the bottom of the list were Apple, Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Oracle (ORCL). RH (RH) was the top daily update growth stock with a 15.67% gain thanks to a great earnings beat. CrowdStrike (CRWD), DoorDash (DASH), and Service Now (NOW) were the other growth stocks to top the list. Ehang Holdings (EH), GrowGeneration (GRWG), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Lemonade (LMND) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get the first consumer sentiment and expectations data for June after the market opens on Friday morning. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index was able to close above the 14,000 line today. All three trend-lines are pointing to a the range between a +0.10% and +0.41% gain for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice advance for the Nasdaq today. However, there is some weakness in the volume and breadth of gains across stocks in the index. The defensive sectors at the top of the sector list is also a reason for some pause. Investors do not seem to be in agreement on whether the consumer price data was good news, or bad news, or no news. We'll look for a continuation of higher tomorrow to confirm the direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/9Summary: The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 9, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, low above Monday's high Bad: Could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body, no lower wick, short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.18%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.71%), VIX (+4.92%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.09% decline after briefly rising above 14,000 for the first time since early May. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is mostly red body with a closing range of 5%. The upper wick formed just after the open. The index approached 14,000 again in the early afternoon but reversed after the 10y note auction. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.71%, the first decline in four days. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.44%. The VIX volatility gained +4.92%. Investors moved back into Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%), sending them to the top of the sector list. The defensive move is probably to protect against reactions to inflation data on Thursday. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were the bottom sectors. Materials (XLB -0.78%) also was near the bottom of the list. It's looking less likely that Biden's infrastructure plans will move forward as initially presented. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained at its current level. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined for a second day. The 2y yield also fell, but the spread between long-term and short-term yields tightened. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) advanced, Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose 11.20%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) gained +3.76%. (At the time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.487. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, possibly helped by the lower treasury yields and easing inflation fears. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) could not close above their 50d MA despite gains of +0.31% and +0.52%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.40% and are above the key moving average lines. Novartis (NVS) slipped into the mega-cap list with a 202b market cap after a +2.83% gain today. Also at the top of the list were Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Abbvie (ABBV), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), all in the Health Sector. Netflix (NFLX), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list. UP Fintech (TIGR), MongoDB (MDB), SNAP (SNAP), and Moderna (MRNA) topped the daily update growth list. There were more losers than gainers in the growth list. The biggest losers were (RH), Fiverr (FVRR), Ehang Holdings (EH), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). RH is back up over 6% after hours on a great earnings report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news on Thursday includes the OPEC Monthly Report early in the morning. Core Consumer Price Index data gets released before the market open. Initial Jobless Claims also gets its weekly update. In the after, the Federal Budget Balance for May will be made available. On Thursday, the only significant earnings report for the daily update is Chewy (CHWY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index briefly topped 14,000 but then moved lower again. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.26% gain on Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/13 low ends with a +0.66% gain. The one-day trend-line leads to a -0.12% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So we wait. The consumer price index data will be out in the morning, and investors can decide how bad it looks. We can expect changes in currencies, bonds, and equities depending on the reaction. Based on the chart and the resistance at 14,000, the expectation is for sideways or lower. If the pricing data does not raise inflation fears, that could be the expectation breaker we need and the catalyst to get the index back up above 14,000. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/8Summary: The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 8, 2021 Facts: +0.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: 14% Good: Positive move on higher volume, higher high, higher low Bad: Red body, indecisive candle, expected resistance at 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 1.16, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.02%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (+3.83%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.31% gain on higher volume. A long lower wick formed in the morning selling after a gap-up open that tested 14,000 resistance. Despite the morning selling, the index recovered to close just below where it opened, creating a thin 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led again today with a +1.06% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.02%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.09%. The VIX volatility gained +3.83%. The defensive sectors that led the sector list yesterday moved to the bottom today. Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were the worst-performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.18%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.23%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.72%. (At the time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.461. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.07%, taking it above the 21d EMA but falling short of the 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) also moved above its 21d EMA with a +0.67% gain but hit resistance intraday at the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are trading above the two key moving average lines but declined at -0.49% and -0.16% today. Amazon, Exxon Mobil (XOM), PayPal (PYPL), and Chevron (CVX) lead the mega-cap list today. There were more declining mega-caps than gaining mega-caps, holding back the S&P 500 and Dow Jones from gains. Nvidia (NVDA), Pepsi Co (PEP), Proctor & Gamble (PG), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Ehang Holdings (EH) soared 18% today, topping the daily update growth list. Fastly (FSLY) gained over +10%, despite causing a widespread outage before the market opened. Lemonade (LMND) and Cloudflare (NET) round out the top four, both with better than 4% gains. Overall the growth list is about half gainers, half losers. At the bottom of the list are SNAP (SNAP), Moderna (MRNA), DoorDash (DASH), and UP Fintech (TIGR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday morning will bring Crude Oil Inventories data after the market opens. In the afternoon, a 10-Year Note Auction may have an impact on interest rates. GameStop (GME), RH (RH), and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance As expected, the Nasdaq met resistance at 14,000 today. It could hold near that level and potentially rise above it tomorrow with the right catalyst. The three trend-lines (one-day, five-day, and from the 5/13 low) currently point to about the same place with a gain from +0.11% to +0.38% tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are still seeing some indication that investors are eyeing opportunities to move back into growth stocks but keep a cautious foot out the door if inflation data is worse than expected. That data does not come until Thursday, so it's tough to know what to expect for Wednesday. Given the resistance at 14,000 today, it's reasonable to expect a sideways move or a step back before moving above that area. Sideways or lower. But we can hope for a surprise in the other direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/7Summary: Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 5, 2021 Facts: +0.49%, Volume higher, Closing range: 93%, Body: 76% Good: Positive move on higher volume, good breadth. Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Small upper and lower wick surrounding a thick green body Advanced/Decline: 1.47, Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (+1.43%), VIX (+0.00%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) and Communications (XLC +0.52%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. The Nasdaq gained +0.49%, on higher volume. A short lower and upper wick surrounding a 76% green body represents the steady climb throughout the day. The closing range of 93% came after the index made a late afternoon intraday high, dipped, and quickly recovered. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small caps did very well, with the index gaining +1.43% for the day. The FTSE Russell published the initial 3000 reconstitution list after market close on Friday, which possibly drew focus to the stocks in the list. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) were weighed down by cyclical sectors, declining at -0.08% and -0.36%. The VIX volatility moved intraday but closed where it closed on Friday. Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%), Health (XLV +0.36%), and Utilities (XLU +0.18%) led the sector list in the morning. Growth sectors performed better in the afternoon, with Communications (XLC +0.52%) moving to second place. The cyclical sectors performed the worst, with Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) at the bottom of the list. The Health sector had a considerable advance in the morning on the excitement that Eli Lilly would get FDA approval for an Alzheimer's Therapy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.18%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -6.22%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.32%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.514. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is just to the fear side of neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) successfully tested its 50d MA before gaining +1.20% for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) is trading above its 21d EMA and 50d MA and gained +0.36% today. Apple (AAPL) could not move above its 21d EMA, ending the day with a +0.01% gain. Amazon (AMZN) is trading below both key moving average lines, declining -0.26% today. Eli Lilly (LLY) soared back into the mega-cap list and went straight to the top with a +10.15% gain today, boosting the Health sector. Facebook (FB), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft, and Tesla (TSLA) were the next four, each with more than 1% gains. United Health (UNH), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Alibaba (BABA), and PayPal (PYPL) were at the bottom of the list. There were more declining mega-caps than advancing mega-caps. Gainers dominated the daily update growth stock list. Fastly (FSLY), Peloton (PTON), Moderna (MRNA), DraftKings (DKNG) topped the list. JD.com (JD), Zynga (ZNGA), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and Solar Edge (SEDG) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data for April will be released before the market opens on Tuesday. After the market opens, the JOLTS Job Openings report for April will be available. There is a 3-Year Note Auction in the afternoon, and Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released after the market closes. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq stayed above the 13,700 area today. The index is heading toward expected resistance at the round number of 14,000. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the low on 5/13 both point to a +0.41% on Tuesday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was some hesitation among growth investors early in the day, but perhaps the lack of negative news in the morning warmed them back into the market by afternoon. Many small caps did well all day after the Russell 3000 began the annual reconstitution process where stocks are added and removed from the index. The initial list was released after the market close this past Friday. The gain on higher volume with breadth across the stocks in the Nasdaq is all a positive. Still, it seems investors could be a bit more greedy, which may come with a suitable catalyst. Trade Balance data on Tuesday is not likely to be the catalyst. Consumer Price Index data, if not surprisingly high, could alleviate inflation fears and help embolden investors back into growth. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321