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Daily Market Update for 6/3 Summary: Mixed reactions to economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar, but stoked fears of the fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 3, 2021 Facts: -1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 47% (w/gap), Body: 30% Good: Not much Bad: Gap down at open, broke support at 13,700, close below major moving averages Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long lower wick, red body in upper half of the candle Advanced/Decline: 0.6, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.36%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.81%), VIX (+3.09%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%) and Utilities (XLU +0.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed reactions to economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar , but stoked fears of the fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.03% decline on higher volume, marking a day of distribution for investors. The closing range of 47% is not terrible but the 30% red body shows the index could not fully recover from the sell-off after market open. The longer lower wick is representative of the failed attempt to rally back to above key moving average lines. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.81% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined only -0.07%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.09%. The defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%), Utilities (XLU +0.60%) and Health (XLV +0.30%) were top performing for the day, signaling investors nervousness over economic data. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.65%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined, due to the advance in the US Dollar. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly from its recent record high. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.34%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +5.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.563. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is slightly on the fear side, but close to neutral. The NAAIM investment manager exposure index rose to 82.27. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.97%, testing its 21d EMA, but remaining above the line. The other three are trading below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.22%. Microsoft declined -0.64%. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -1.45%. Procter & Gamble (PG), Toyota Motor (TM ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Oracle (ORCL) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining more than 1% despite the drop in the overall market. Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Most of the daily update growth stocks declined for the day. UP Fintech (TIGR), Digital Turbine (APPS), Moderna (MRNA), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list with advances. At the bottom of the list were Etsy (ETSY), Ehang Holdings (EH), MongoDb (MDB) , and DoorDash (DASH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak early in the morning on Friday. The anticipated employment data will be released before markets open and should have a big impact on investor sentiment. After the market opens, Factory Orders data will be released. There are no earnings reports relevant for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped below the 13,600 level, but closed just above it and within the 13,600 - 13,700 support area. It also closed below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The trend-line from the low on 5/13 points to a +1.95% gain on Friday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.31% advance. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.09% sideways move. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -0.41% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After spending seven days without much direction in the Nasdaq, Thursday brought a character change. Maybe not the one we are hoping for, but it at least helps set some expectations leading into Friday. From the chart, I'll expect a sideways or lower move for Friday. Investors will be watching remarks from Jerome Powell closely and will certainly react to the labor market data released before the market opens. Great news might be met with more fear over a fed reaction to the recovering economy, and have an opposite impact for growth stocks. So Powell's remarks will be even more important, and may be why they are scheduled for Friday morning. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 6/2 Summary: Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 2, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 15% Good: Gain on higher volume, high closing range, support at 13,700 Bad: Lower high, thin green body Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more decling stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.14%), DJI (+0.07%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-2.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. The Nasdaq closed with a small +0.14% gain after dipping in the afternoon and finding support again at 13,700. Volume was higher, and the closing range of 77% is good with a thin green 15% body. The short upper wick was formed from gains in the morning, while the longer lower wick formed in selling at the start of the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only major index to get a higher high today but gained only +0.13% after a strong session the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.14%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.07%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.24%. Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) continued their lead as the top sectors this week. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were the worst-performing today. It's worth noting that Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) also performed well today. Technology (XLK +0.69%) started the day as the top sector but faded to third place by afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.02%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.44%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.78%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.534. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward neutral, but still just on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) climbed +0.63% and +0.48% today but are still below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined just -0.04% after hitting resistance at the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -0.44% but is still trading within a base forming above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. There were more gainers than losers in the mega-cap list. Nvidia (NVDA), Toyota Motor (TM ), Mastercard (MC), and Chevron (CVX) were the top mega-caps for the day. Tesla (TSLA), Walt Disney (DIS), Home Depot (HD), and Salesforce.com (CRM) were the worst-performing mega-caps. The daily update growth list is a bit more, even with gainers and losers. At the top of the list is Beyond Meat (BYND), gaining over 10% for the day. Lemonade (LMND), Etsy (ETSY), and Palantir (PLTR) were also in the top four. At the bottom of the list were NIO (NIO), FUTU Holding (FUTU), Digital Turbine (APPS), and UP Fintech (TIGR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data is coming on Thursday with Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, and Labor Costs. Services PMI is a leading indicator of demand for services such as hotels, restaurants, and others. Crude Oil Inventories will be available late in the morning. Fed members are scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Thursday's earnings reports include Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), Slack (WORK), MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), Pagerduty (PD), and Sumo Logic (SUMO). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to hold above the 13,600 - 13,700 area after testing the area in the afternoon dip. The trend-line from the low on 5/13 points to a +1.12% gain on Thursday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.04% lateral move. The one-day trend line points to a -0.59% decline. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -1.55% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been almost two weeks of sideways move for the Nasdaq after it popped above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average and the 50-day Simple Moving Average, two lines that I like to track on index and stock charts along with the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The slow move can be a good thing as we build a base, making the support area from 13,600-13,700 stronger and allowing the moving average lines to catch up. If the 21d EMA can move above the 50d MA, that will be a good confirmation of the uptrend and potentially the start of a move higher. In the meantime, if you want excitement, keep your eyes on the meme stocks that are going crazy again. To the moon. Ugh. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 6/1 Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among the major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 1, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 37%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high, advance/decline ratio above 1.0, support at 13,700 Bad: Low closing range, faded from morning rally to a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 1.32, more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.05%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (+1.14%), VIX (+6.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among the major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. The Nasdaq closed the day down -0.09% on lower volume. The opening price was nearly the high of the day, but then the index dropped to 13,700 before finding any support. That formed a 59% red body under a barely visible upper wick. The lower wick developed after the morning selling turned to afternoon buying. Despite the slight decline, there were more stocks advancing than stocks declining. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the day with a +1.14% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was heading toward a new all-time high close before it reversed and ended lower, advancing just +0.13% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a -0.05% gain. The VIX volatility index rose +6.68%. Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Growth in fuel demand sent oil prices higher and helped the Energy sector top the list today. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.10%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.74%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.70%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0468. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced today, gaining +1.03%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.91% and dropped back below its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) continued to get resistance at its declining 21d EMA, losing -0.14% today. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.26% and is trading below both of the key moving average lines. Toyota Motor (TM ), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list, all with greater than 2.5% gains. At the bottom of the list were Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Adobe (ADBE), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Nike (NKE). The majority of the daily update growth list declined today, but there were some gainers. The Chinese stocks topped the list, with NIO (NIO), UP Fintech (TIGR), JD.com (JD), and Ehang Holdings (EH) performing the best. FUTU (FUTU) and Alibaba (BABA) were the fifth and sixth. At the bottom of the list were Beyond Meat (BYND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Solar Edge (SEDG), and Enphase (ENPH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Some more updates from the Federal Reserve come on Wednesday with the release of the Beige book and comments from Fed member Raphael Bostic in the afternoon. API Weekly Crude oil stock updates come after market close. Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) will release earnings. Otherwise, there are not many interesting earning reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to hold above the 13,600 - 13,700 area after testing the area in the early morning dip. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.54% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.04% sideways move. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -1.71% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't an inspiring start to the month of June. Certainly, there were things to watch, from the sale of Cloudera (CLDR) to the continued resurgence of the meme stocks of AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME). The cryptocurrencies settled down a bit and are starting to form some nice coils on lower volume. But overall, it was a mixed day with a sideways move in the indices. Based on the failed rally attempt in the morning and overall bearish candle, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. That's been a consistent expectation the past week, even among higher highs and higher lows. Unless something excites investors back into big tech and growth stocks, we can continue to expect this sideways movement heading into the early summer. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/28 Summary: Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 28, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Low closing range, couldn't hold mid-day high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body with no lower wick, visible upper wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.76, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (-0.18%), VIX (+0.12%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain but faded from the mid-day high. Volume was lower for the day and lower in the afternoon selling, which was a good sign for bulls. The closing range of 2% and red 59% body creates a candlestick with no lower wick. The upper wick formed from the morning rally. Today's session marks seven days of a higher low. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) pulled back from its recent rally with a -0.18% decline today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.19%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.08%. The VIX volatility index rose +0.12%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list today. That includes Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%), Health (XLV +0.39%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.21%). However, tucked into the top sector list is Technology (XLK +0.36%), leading at mid-day. At the bottom of the list were the other growth sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.06%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields declined, with the spread tightening a bit. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -7.30%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -11.96%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.593. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) held onto a gain, advancing +0.15% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) is trading above the key moving average lines, the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) is also trading above the key lines, with a -0.25% decline today. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are below the two lines, with a -0.53% and -0.22% loss for today. Salesforce.com (CRM) topped the mega-cap list, beating expectations and analyst outlook for full-year guidance. Nvidia (NVDA) had a delayed reaction to great earnings earlier in the week, coming up second on the mega-cap list today. ASML Holding (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) also topped the list. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), and Tesla (T). Despite some of the larger names in the Technology sector losing for the day, the sector outperformed thanks to significant gains by Salesforce.com, Nvidia, Adobe (ADBE) and smaller increases by Microsoft and Visa (V), which provided support for the sector. That helped the sector perform even as investors took defensive positions outside of growth stocks. Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Nvidia, and Ehang Holdings (EH) topped the daily update growth list. The list is about 50% gainers and 50% losers for the day. At the bottom of the list are Peloton (PTON), Fastly (FSLTY), Chewy (CHWY), and Snowflake (SNOW) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday is Memorial Day in the US, and the markets will be closed. On Tuesday, the ISM will release Manufacturing data, including the purchasing managers index and employment data, showing the sector preparing for future rise or fall in demand. Zoom Video (ZM), Hewlett Packard (HPE), and Digital Turbine (APPS) will release earnings reports on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Similar to Thursday, the index made a higher high today before settling back to where it opened. It's still above the 13,600-13,700 area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.60% gain on Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.03% gain. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.05% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was plenty to be nervous about today looking at the rising wedge in the index chart this past week. Inflation data, recovery data, and the three-day weekend could result in a much worse outcome. As expected, the defensive plays in sectors like Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples came into play, especially as the afternoon progressed. However, notice that investors did not punish companies with great earnings reports as they sometimes do when the timing isn't quite right. In the end, the week gave us a higher high and a higher low than the previous week. That's a step in the right direction as we end May and move into the summer months. The summer months (June to September) are not historically the best months for the market, but hopefully, we can keep moving in a positive direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/27 Summary: Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 27, 2021 Facts: -0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Could not hold onto intraday gains Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top red candle, thin red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-3.57%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Nasdaq closed nearly where it opened with a slight -0.01% loss. The spinning-top style candle has a thin 8% red body in the middle of equal length upper and lower wicks, resulting in a 46% closing range. The candle signals indecision among investors, which is in line with this week's market character. Despite the slight loss, there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index led again today with a +1.06% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.41%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.12%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.57%. Cyclical sectors led the list today. Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top, with Materials (XLB +0.80%) in third place. Technology (XLK -0.53%) had the second day of underperformance relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were the bottom sectors of the day. Investors did not focus on the defensive strategy of these sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.05%. The dollar seems to have found a base of support over the past two weeks. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y treasure yields all advanced, with the spread remaining about the same. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced considerably, aligning with the performance of the Industrial and Materials sectors. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.05%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.14%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.550. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 68.3 after dipping to 44.2 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps declined today. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.24% while Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.07%. Both are trading below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.87% but stopped short of dipping below the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) remains well above the two key moving average lines, despite declining -0.74% today. Tesla (TSLA) tops the mega-cap list again today. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Facebook (FB), Walt Disney (DIS) were also in the top-performing mega-caps for the day. At the bottom of the list is Proctor & Gamble (PG), Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Nvidia (NVDA). The majority of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Beyond Meat (BYND), DoorDash (DASH), Snowflake (SNOW), and Cloudflare (NET) topped the list. Okta (OKTA) declined almost 10% after disappointing investors with their earnings, despite beating expectations. Workday (WDAY), Paycom (PAYC), and ServiceNow (NOW) are also at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday will bring another update on inflation with the PCE Price Index data, an indicator of inflation. In addition, we will see updates for Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Retail Inventories, and Consumer Sentiment. Big Lots (BIG) and Ehang Holdings (EH) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a higher high today before settling back to where it opened. It's still above the 13,600-13,700 area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.81% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.10% gain. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.84% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up On the one hand, we have a red candle with a daily loss for the Nasdaq. That doesn't seem optimistic for tech and growth stocks. On the other hand, there is higher volume and broad gains across the stocks in the index. Overall, you could call that a structural day that builds a base for further increases. The last six candles all have higher lows, which is good. The highs, however, have been decelerating relative to the higher lows, creating a topping pattern. That makes setting an expectation for Friday all the more challenging and reflects the indecision in the market this week. The expectation is Sideways or Lower for Friday. The primary risk will be in the pre-market Price Index data that may raise inflation fears with investors. There may also be more rotation back into recovery stocks and cyclical sectors, or even defensive sectors, as investors take some profits heading into a three-day weekend. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/26 Summary: Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 26, 2021 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 62% Good: Higher volume with breadth of gains across index Bad: No higher high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day. A shallow green body with the high and low within the previous day's range. Advanced/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (+1.97%), VIX (-7.31%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.59% gain on higher volume. The candlestick is an inside day where the high and low are within the high and low of the previous day. The closing range of 83% over a 62% green body represents a bullish day, but the narrow trading range exposes some remaining caution among investors. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Small caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) performed well today. The RUT advanced +1.97%, bouncing back from yesterday's decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) moved sideways with just a +0.03% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -7.31%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were the top sectors for the day. Energy got a boost from better than expected demand for oil. Only three sectors lost for the day. Technology (XLK -0.01%) had a slight loss, which is significant on a day that the Nasdaq performed well. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were today's worst-performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.42%. The US 30y and 10y treasure yields advanced slightly while the 2y yield declined. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.37%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +6.85%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.541. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps had mixed results. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.74% and put more room between the current price and the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.19% and closed above the 21d EMA for the first time since the beginning of May. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.04% and remained below the two key moving average lines. Microsoft also declined, losing -0.09%, and created another doji style candle signaling indecision. Tesla (TSLA), Comcast (CMCSA), Nike (NKE), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining over 1.5%. Abbott Labs (ABT), Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), and ASML Holding (ASML) were at the bottom of the list. Only two stocks in the daily update growth list declined for the day, Facebook (FB) and Pinterest (PINS). At the top of the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), UP Fintech (TIGR), Zscaler (ZS), and Lemonade (LMND), all gaining over 10%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, Durable Goods orders data will get an update. We will also get the revised GDP numbers for Q1, which should align with the previously released numbers. Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will also get an update. Salesforce.com (CRM), Medtronic (MDT), Costco (COST), VMWare (VMW), Autodesk (ADSK), Dollar General (DG), Veeva Systems (VEEV), HP Inc (HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL), GameStop (GME), and Gap (GPS) release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index moved above the 13,600 - 13,700 resistance area. That should become a support area as well. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.69% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.29% gain. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.83% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Positive price action. Higher volume. A breadth of gains across the market. What more can I ask for? Now I'd like to see a higher high to show a move toward a new all-time high. To do that, the Technology sector will likely need to participate as well. Otherwise, the environment looks right for more gains, and the expectation is set for sideways or higher for tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/25 Summary: The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 25, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 21%, Body: 54% Good: The higher high and higher low continues the uptrend Bad: Could not revisit the high just after open, and higher volume in selling with low A/D Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Shallow red body within a tight intraday range. Slightly longer upper wick. Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (-24%), DJI (+0.24%), RUT (-0.97%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were top. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. The Nasdaq moved sideways with a small -0.03% declined by the end of the day. Volume was higher for the day. The index fell after a very brief rally after open, creating a 54% red body with small upper and lower wicks. The closing range of 21% is in the middle of the afternoon trading range, with the index moving sideways most of the day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.21%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.24%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -0.97% and had an outside day, having a higher high and a lower low than the previous day. The VIX volatility index rose +1.30%. Only four sectors ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were the top-performing. Technology (XLK +0.03%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) also had gains, albeit small advances. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.19%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y treasure yields all declined for the day, with the spreads between long-term and short-term tightening significantly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the fourth day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.14%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +1.98%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.654. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) declined today, moving down -0.16% and remaining below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed with a +0.43% gain after dipping into the afternoon but climbing back up to the moving average lines before close. Microsoft (MSFT) gapped up at open, moved up and down, but closed nearly at the same price as open, gaining +0.37% for the day and creating a bearish Doji star candle. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.08% today. ASML Holding (ASML), Adobe (ADBE), Walt Disney (DIS), and Facebook (FB) were at the top of the mega-cap list today. There were slightly more gaining mega-caps than losing mega-caps. Mastercard (MA), Bank of America (BAC), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the biggest losers. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the growth stock list thanks to a positive earnings beat by UP Fintech before the market open. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was third after announcing another acquisition. Ehang Holdings (EH) adds another Chinese stock to the top for growth stocks for today. Lemonade (LMND), DoorDash (DASH), Digital Turbine (APPS), and SUMO Digital (SUMO) had losses and were at the bottom of the daily update growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories will be released on Wednesday after the market opens. FOMC member Quarles will speak in the afternoon, before market close. Earnings releases will include Nvidia (NVDA), Pinduoduo (PDD), Snowflake (SNOW), Workday (WDAY), and Okta (OKTA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index stayed above the 21d EMA and 50d MA today, moving sideways within the 13,600 - 13,700 resistance/support area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +1.71 gain for tomorrow, taking the index to end just below the 14,000 area. The one-day trend line points to a -0.51% decline for tomorrow, resting the index right at the 50d MA. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.67% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's not much to look at in the indices today. We expected sideways or higher. We got sideways within a recent uptrend that continues with the higher high and higher low. It was notable to see the US Dollar and Treasury yields drop due to consumer confidence and housing data. That will be something to watch over the next few days to see the impact ripple through markets. I'll continue yesterday's expectation of sideways or higher until the index gives a strong indication of change. There are not many catalysts for a considerable reaction tomorrow unless there is a surprise in crude oil inventories or something said by FOMC member Randal Quarles in the late afternoon. I am still waiting for a positive day with higher volume and breadth of gains across the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/24 Summary: The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: +1.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 70%, Body: 66% Good: Higher high, higher low, high closing range Bad: Upper wick from fade before close, lower volume, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a long upper wick. No lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.99%), DJI (+0.54%), RUT (+0.54%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were top. Health (XLV +0.10%) and Utilities (XLU -0.18%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. The Nasdaq rose +1.41%, but on lower volume for the day. The closing range of 70% results from a fade in prices before close, but the candle still has a 66% green body from the bullish day. Despite the bullish day in the indexes, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.99%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.54%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also rose +0.54% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -7.73%. Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were the top sectors for the day. They were far above the next best sector, Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%). Utilities (XLU -0.18%) was the only declining sector for today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y treasure yield advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the third day. Silver (SILVER) advanced, Gold (GOLD) was flat. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced 11.91%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +26.37%. Both reversed after huge drops over the weekend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.616. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps advanced today. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain with a +2.92% advance, helping Communications to the top of the sector list. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +2.29%. Both Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still looking for a solid move above those lines but could gain +1.33% and 1.31%, respectively. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), ASML Holding (ASML), Alphabet, Facebook (FB), and PayPal (PYPL) all gained over 2.5%, topping the mega-cap list. AT&T (T), Pfizer (PFE), Home Depot (HD), and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks benefited from the new confidence in the Fed today. The top of the daily update list includes Beyond Meat (BYND), DraftKings (DKNG), SNAP Inc. (SNAP), and Chewy (CHWY), all with gains of over 5.5%. JD.com (JD), UP Fintech (TIGR), Etsy (ETSY), and GrowGeneration (GRWG) did not fare as well, declining more than 1% each. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales numbers will be released after the market opens on Tuesday. Intuit (INTU), AutoZone (AZO), Zscaler (ZS), Nordstrom (JWN), MakeMyTrip (MMYT), and UP Fintech (TIGR) will release earnings updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index rose above the 21d EMA and 50d MA today before hitting resistance at 13,700 and fading into close. Staying above the key moving average lines would help the index move back towards 14,000 and all-time highs. The one-day and five-day trend-lines point to a +0.27% to +0.53% advance for tomorrow. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -3.18% decline on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors were happy to hear from Fed members today, reiterating the need for continued easy monetary policy. The result was a rush back into stocks that were severely beaten down on inflation fears. But the result was more declining stocks than advancing stocks and lower volume. Based on the higher high and higher low today, it's fair to expect another move higher tomorrow. But the move would give more confidence if it comes with breadth and higher volume. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Updated

Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/21 Sector performance provides some clues this week on how investors are thinking about inflation and the Fed. Just like the market character changed around the Wednesday release of the Fed meeting minutes, the sectors also saw a change in leadership. It still remains to be seen if that new character sticks for the coming weeks, or gets disrupted as the inflation story unfolds. Real Estate (XLRE), Health Care (XLV), and Utilities (XLU) top the list for the full week, and that reflects well the overall mood of investors. These sectors are used as defensive sectors. Regardless of whether economic conditions serve better cyclical stocks or growth stocks, the services in these defensive sectors are always required. Consumer Staples (XLP) is also up in that list and outperformed the S&P 500 index. For the remaining sectors, it's worth looking at performance before and after the Wednesday Fed release. Coming into the week, there was a clear focus on cyclical sectors with Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) leading on Monday. Investors turned defensive on Tuesday, popping the defensive sectors to the top. And then the gap down at open came on Wednesday with shifting investments on lower volume leading into the meeting minutes release at 2p. After Wednesday, it's clear there was a change in sentiment. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) came out of the gap-down and performed best through the end of the week, despite a small pullback for both on Friday. They performed well enough to end the week outperforming the S&P 500 index. That leaves the cyclical sectors at the bottom of the list. Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), and Energy (XLE) were the bottom three sectors. For these sectors, much rests on Biden's infrastructure plans passing through congress, but the proposals continue to be rejected by Republicans. It's reasonable to expect that with continued headwinds for the infrastructure bill, we'll see some downside for cyclical sectors, see inflation decelerate a bit, and give some life to growth stocks, even if for a short period.

Daily Market Update for 5/21 Summary: Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 95% Good: Higher high, higher low, lower volume on down day Bad: Selling throughout session, high at open, low near close Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Barely visible lower wick, no upper wick, mostly red body Advanced/Decline: Slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (+0.36%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. The Nasdaq started the day in the positive but ended with a -0.48% decline after a full day of selling. Volume was lower than the previous day. The Nasdaq did put in a higher high and higher low than Thursday. However, the candle is an almost entirely red body, with a 5% closing range. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) benefited from the economic data in the morning, advancing +0.36% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with a +0.34% gain. The small-cap index was up more than 1.3% in the morning. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.08% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -2.52%. Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were the top sectors for the day. Cyclical sectors did well. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.31% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y treasure yield advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -7.87%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -12.25%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.668. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps reversed yesterday's gains. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.48%. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.53%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.37%. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the only of the four to remain above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, despite declining -0.56% today. Nvidia (NVDA), Bank of America (BAC), AT&T (T), and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top gaining mega-caps for today. Alibaba (BABA), Apple, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list. There were more decliners in the daily update growth list today. The top gainers included Crowdstrike (CRWD), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Nvidia (NVDA), and Fastly (FSLY). At the bottom of the list were FUTU Holding (FUTU), Etsy (ETSY), GrowGeneration (GRWG), and Ehang Holding (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Fed member Brainard will speak in the morning, and Bostic will speak at noon. Lordstown Motors (RIDE) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index was not able to hold above the 21d EMA today. It first hit resistance at 13,600, then moved below the 21d EMA. The moving average line then acted as resistance in two afternoon attempts by the index to move back above. The give-day trend-line points to a +0.60% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line ends with a -0.75% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.48% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Excitement over the morning economic news allowed the Nasdaq to open in the positive. But the excitement faded along with prices throughout the day. The bullish higher high and higher low contrasts with a bearish red candle. The day brings to close an inside week for the Nasdaq. The weekly high and low is within the previous week's high and low. It shows investors are still undecided on the future of inflation and reactions from the Fed, moving in and out of big-tech and growth stocks that will be sensitive to any changes. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/20 Summary: A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 20, 2021 Facts: +1.77%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89% (w/gap), Body: 86% Good: No lower wick, thick green body with high closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body with a short upper wick Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.06%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (+0.64%), VIX (-6.81%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were top. Financials (XLF +0.05%) and Energy (XLE -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.77% advance. Volume was lower, but the gap-up and higher high and higher low are both great signs. With the gap, the closing range was 89%. An 86% green body sits under a short upper wick formed late in the date. There is no visible lower wick. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.55%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.64%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.81%. Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were the top sectors for the second day in a row. Only Energy (XLE -0.15%) declined for the day. Financials (XLF +0.05%) had a slight gain but was at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.47% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined, and the spread between the 10y and 2y tightened. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +9.92%, recovering from yesterday's dip. Ethereum (ETHUSD) rose +14.48%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.633. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 44.21 -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) rose +2.10% to close just below its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.56% and moved back above the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) closed just below the 50d MA, with a +1.38% gain. Amazon(AMZN) moved above the 50d MA with a +0.49% advance. Tesla (TSLA) topped the mega-cap list for the first time in weeks. Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX), ASML Holding (ASML), and PayPal (PYPL) were also at the top of the list with greater than 2.5% gains. Only a handful of mega-caps lost for the day. Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Verizon (VZ), and United Health (UNH) were the worst losers of the day, but all declined less than 0.25%. Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), two solar energy stocks, are at the top of the daily update growth list for the second day in a row. Fiverr (FVRR) and SNAP (SNAP) are the third and fourth best of the day. Several growth stocks topped 5% gains. Only a few in the list had losses. Those include DoorDash (DASH), Chewy (CHWY), RH (RH), and Palantir (PLTR) at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday morning, the Purchasing Manager Index data for Services and Manufacturing will be available after the market opens. The data shows an expected increase/decrease in activity to meet customer demand in the two sectors. Existing Home Sales will also be released after the market opens. Deere & Company (DE), Foot Locker (FL), and Buckle (BKE) are on the shortlist of earnings reports for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA line today. It had first hit resistance at the line, then found support as the index faded a bit into the close. Holding this key support line is critical to ending the week positively. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.97% gain for tomorrow, taking the index above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line leads to a -0.85% loss. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -3.14% decline on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I'll take it. A positive day for the Nasdaq, and growth stocks, and broad overall gains in the market is very welcome after a few days of disappointing losses. It's not yet time to jump back in the deep end. I would wait for a day with similar characteristics today, but higher volume showing institutions are accumulating. Tomorrow is an options expiration day. Expect some changes in direction in the afternoon. Overall, I'll set my expectations for higher based on the past two days. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/19 Summary: You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 19, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Thick green body shows buying after a gap down at open Bad: Gap down at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: All green body, barely visible upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.29%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (-0.78%), VIX (+3.94%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. Here is the intraday volume on the QQQ ETF before and after the Fed minutes were released: The Nasdaq closed with a -0.03% loss, much better than the -1.71% dip at open. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 95% green body and 98% closing range shows the buying throughout the day. There is the potential, as with 5/11, that the gap down caused some shorts to cover and take profits. But much of the action seemed to be centered around the 2 pm release of the Fed minutes. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the worst performance of the day with a -0.78% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.48%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a -0.29% loss. The VIX volatility index rose another +3.94% but recovered from a 22% intraday spike. Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were the only gaining sectors for the day. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) were the bottom two sectors. It's interesting to note that Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) led in the early morning before the major indices pivoted upward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.44% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all rose for the day, having dropped in the early morning hours but then climbing again after the Fed minutes were released. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) was flat. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) dropped nearly -30% in the morning before recording to around a -11% decline at the time of writing. Ethereum (ETHUSD) was down -45% and is now around a -23.5% loss for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.806. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was able to recover from the morning dip and end the day with a +0.40% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) ended with a slight gain of +0.02%. Amazon (AMZN) lost -0.01% and Apple (AAPL) declined -0.13%. The latter three are all trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet is above its 50d MA but below its 21d EMA. Salesforce (CRM) topped the mega-cap list with a +3.27% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Facebook (FB), and Intel (INTC) were also at the top of the list, with around 1% gains each. Tesla (TSLA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AT&T (T), and Nike (NKE) were at the bottom of the list. Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), two solar energy stocks, topped the daily update growth list with greater than 5% gains. Snowflake (SNOW) and Zynga (ZNGA) also were near the top of the list. CloudFlare (NET), Palantir (PLTR), and Ehang Holdings (EH) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data will be released Thursday. Earnings Reports include Tencent (TCEHY), Applied Materials (AMAT), Ross Stores (ROST), and Deckers Outdoor (DECK). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index recovered from the morning gap down but remained well below the key moving average lines. The early morning to afternoon gains created an upward sloping one-day trend-line that points to a +1.09% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line leads to a +0.46% gain. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -1.89% decline on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Worries about the Fed's reaction to inflation don't seem to go away, and today it was on display as trading volume shrank considerably as investors awaiting the release of the minutes from last month's Fed meeting. The minutes did mention the possibility of unwelcome inflation, which suggests some reaction from the Fed. But still, the overwhelming comments say that any tapering now of treasury buybacks could stunt the economic recovery. The index was choppy after the 2p release of the minutes, but volume popped up higher as investors consumed the new data. In the end, investors bought back into some riskier assets, sending big tech in the Technology and Communications sectors higher for the day. Cryptocurrencies recovered some of the morning losses. Treasury yields rose as investors sold the safe-haven asset. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/18 Summary: Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 18, 2021 Facts: -0.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning rally, closed day at low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body under a long upper wick and almost no lower wick Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.85%), DJI (-0.78%), RUT (-0.73%), VIX (+8.22%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.56% loss for the day but was able to turn in a higher high and higher low than the previous day. The index rose in the early morning but then fell the rest of the day, creating an upper wick in the morning but ending the day with a 2% closing range underneath a 61% red body. Volume was higher for the day, with intraday volume more elevated in the morning than in the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) led the losses for the day, declining -0.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.78%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.73%. The VIX volatility index rose another +8.22%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were the only sectors to gain for the day. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were the bottom sectors. Energy continued last week's pattern of flip-flopping from top to bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.45%. The index compares the USD against other major currencies. While the US economy recovers, expect investors to load up on currencies in markets expected to rebound soon as they transition out of lockdowns and back into fully open economies. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined slightly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) stayed flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.595. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.17%, closing right at its 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -1.16%, closing just below the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) continues trading below both moving average lines, declining -1.12% today. Microsoft (MSFT) faired the best, only losing -0.86% today but still closing below both moving average lines. Walmart (WMT) topped the mega-cap list with a +2.17% gain after surprising investors with better than expected earnings in their release before the market open. Retailer Alibaba (BABA) was the second-best mega-cap with a +1.27% gain. Toyota Motor Company (TM ) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) round out the top four. At the bottom of the list were AT&T (T), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Facebook (FB). Other retail reports were also positive, including Home Depot (HD). However, a lack of optimistic guidance and a dismal housing starts report put a damper on the positive report. More than half of the daily update growth stock list had gains today. Ehang Holdings (EH), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Snowflake (SNOW), and Crowdstrike (CRWD) were the top gainers for the day. Dr Horton (DHI) was at the bottom of the list with nearly a 4% decline after the housing starts report. GrowGeneration (GRWG), Facebook, Workday (WDAY) were also at the bottom of the growth list, all with more than 1% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories get an update on Wednesday. In the afternoon, FOMC member Bostic speaks, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. Investors will look closely for wording that shows concern over inflation and any hints toward monetary policy changes. Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), JD.com (JD), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Synopsys (SNPS), Vipshop (VIPS), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) report earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index attempted to rally toward the key moving average lines but faded late in the morning to close lower. The 21d EMA moved below the 50d MA, marking the downward trend. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.83% gain tomorrow. The one-day trend-line would result in a sideways move, with a slight -0.10% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -1.71% decline on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So far this week, we have a mix of signals. The higher high and higher low today are good after yesterday's indecisive candle. However, they fade from the morning rally, and a low closing range on higher volume shows much caution among investors. The defensive sectors leading for the day adds to the signal of caution. Maybe the positive retail earnings reports are just creating more fear that the economy is overheating. On the other hand, growth stocks fared pretty well in the market today. That could be from the declining US Dollar. However, I'd expect big tech might benefit from a declining US dollar as well, and we did not see that today. It could be that growth stocks declined so much that investors are just putting money into what they see as the bottom prices. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list are down 50% or more from their 52-week highs. If investors see a bottom for growth stocks, it is time for a rotation from value back into growth. But expect any movement to be volatile as the market still watches inflation and the Fed very closely. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/17 Summary: Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 17, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 8% Good: Close in upper part of range, bulls took over in afternoon Bad: Lower high, selling most of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Tiny thin body over a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.25%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (+0.11%), VIX (+4.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.32%) and Materials (XLB +0.88%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.79%) and Utilities (XLU -0.82%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.38% loss on lower volume. The 85% closing range over an 8% green body is in the upper part of the candle over a long lower wick. The candle indicates the bulls weren't willing to let go, but still, there was indecision in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed the best for the day, closing with a +0.11% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.25%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.16%. The VIX volatility index advanced +4.84%. The Energy sector (XLE) led for another day, advancing +2.32%. Materials (XLB) was the second-best sector with a +0.88%. 7 of the 11 sectors declined, with Communications (XLC) and Utilities (XLU) at the bottom of the list with -0.79% and -0.82% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.12%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced for the day. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.676. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced while Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) declined. Amazon rose +1.47% and closed above its 50d MA. Alphabet gained +0.46% and closed above its 21 EMA. Apple and Microsoft both closed below their 50d MA, with -0.93% and -1.20% declines. The top mega-caps for the day were Exxon Mobil (XOM), Merck & Co (MRK), Toyota Motor (TM ), and Amazon. The majority of mega-caps were down, with Comcast (CMCSA), AT&T (T), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Tesla (TSLA) at the bottom of the list. There were growth stocks that did well while others did not, perhaps depending on their sector. Lemonade (LMND), Chewy (CHWY), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and Palantir (PLTR) were the top four. At the bottom of the list were Peloton (PTON), DraftKings (DKNG), RH (RH), and Square (SQ). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will release on Tuesday. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will update after market close. Earnings releases will include Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Sea (SE), Baidu (BIDU), Trip.com (TCOM), and Macy's (M). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index remained in about the same spot, below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines and above the 13,000 support area. The five-day trend-line points to a -0.24% decline for tomorrow. The one-day trend line is just below that, showing a -0.62% declined. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.55% decline on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Tax day was mostly uneventful. The indexes dropped buy then caught support, and the bulls bought back stocks at a discount into the late afternoon. The indecisive inside day means we'll have to wait until tomorrow for confirmation on a direction. The expectation is for sideways or higher, but the market could decide to go lower before it goes higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/14 Summary: A lighter volume but positive day followed lower than expected economic indicators, including Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. Perhaps the economic recovery is pausing as consumers react to the increases in prices. A little water on the fire could be good news to investors who are afraid things are overheating. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 14, 2021 Facts: +2.32%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 80% Good: Higher high, higher low, buying all day until just before close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body under a small upper wick. Tiny lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.49%), DJI (+1.06%), RUT (+2.47%), VIX (-18.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.10%) and Technology (XLK +2.20%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.44%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A lighter volume but positive day followed lower than expected economic indicators, including Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. Perhaps the economic recovery is pausing as consumers react to the increases in prices. A little water on the fire could be good news to investors who are afraid things are overheating. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.32% advance on lower volume. The thick green body over a tiny lower wick represents the buying throughout the day. A short upper wick came in the last hour of trading as investors took profits heading into the weekend. There were more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The major indices all did well for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.49%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +1.06%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the best performing, ending the day with a +2.47% gain. The VIX volatility index declined another -18.68%. Flip-flopping from top to bottom throughout the week, the Energy sector (XLE +3.10%) is back on top Friday. Technology (XLK +2.20%) followed closely behind after losing ground through most of the week. All sectors gained for the day. Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.44%) were at the bottom of the list as investors focused on riskier assets. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.46%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined for a second day. The yield curve is flattening again after steepening earlier in the week. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced just slightly. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.658. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is at 46.86 after moving above 100 two weeks ago. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) both closed back above their 50d MA, gaining +1.98% and +2.11%, respectively. Alphabet (GOOGL) moved back above its 21d EMA, advancing +2.21%. Amazon (AMZN) closed just below the 50d MA, gaining +1.94%. Topping the mega-cap list are Nvidia (NVDA), ASML Holding (ASML), Facebook (FB), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). The top four growth stocks all gained more than 10%. DoorDash (DASH) rose gained 20%. Chinese fintech firms UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list, with GrowGeneration (GRWG) and Snowflake (SNOW) rounding out the top five. Only one stock in the daily update list declined, Ehang Holdings (EH) lost -1.45. Hyre (HYRE) is not on the daily list but might need to be added, gaining 44.57% on a massive earnings beat. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The week will open with Manufacturing data on Monday morning. Several FOMC members will speak after the market opens. Tencent Music (TME), Niu Tech (NIU), Desktop Metal (DM), Fisker (FSR), Riot Blockchain (RIOT) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a move back toward the 50d moving average line today but couldn't quite make it that high on the lower volume. If the one-day trend-line continues on Monday, it points to a +1.43% gain that takes the index back above both the 21d EMA and the 50d MA. The five-day trend line leads to a -2.13% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.88% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been a hectic week, and it feels good to have a few days over the weekend to take a deep breath. The gains on Thursday and Friday are a relief to see, but there is still much to prove. Going into next week, I want to see another move up, but on higher volume and continued breath across equities. The lowered retail sales and consumer expectations may be just the thing investors needed to look away from inflation for a while. We'll take a closer look at this in the Week in Review. Have a great weekend! Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/13 Summary: Buy the dip? That seems to be what drove prices higher today on optimism after a positive jobs report. But caution is still in the market with Utilities as the leading sector, growth stocks essentially not participating, and an advance/decline ratio still below 1.0. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 13, 2021 Facts: +0.72%, Volume lower, Closing range: 49%, Body: 11% Good: Higher close, support at 13,000 Bad: Negative red body, indecisive after swings up and down intraday on lower volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Spinning top, inside day with a thin red body and long upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.22%), DJI (+1.29%), RUT (+1.68%), VIX (-16.17%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.93%) and Industrial (XLI +1.87%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.71%) and Energy (XLE -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Buy the dip? That seems to be what drove prices higher today on optimism after a positive jobs report. But caution is still in the market with Utilities as the leading sector, growth stocks essentially not participating, and an advance/decline ratio still below 1.0. The Nasdaq closed higher but on lower volume, advancing +0.72% for the day. The indecisive candle has a thin red body nearly in the middle of the long upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 49%, with a narrow 11% red body. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the day among the major indices, with a +1.68% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +1.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.22%. All four of our indices had inside days, with lower highs and higher lows. The VIX volatility index retreated -16.17%. Energy (XLE -1.22%) moved back to the bottom of the sector list, the only losing sector of the day. That comes after being the only gaining sector on Wednesday. Utilities (+1.93%) and Industrial (XLI +1.87%) were the top sectors for the day. The Utilities sector often tops the list when investors are taking defensive positions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.06%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined for the day. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.760. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 46.86 after moving above 100 two weeks ago. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced. Apple (AAPL) rose +1.79%. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.69%. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.30%. All three neared their 50d MA but retreated from the line before close. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +1.31% and is the only of the four big mega-caps to remain above the 50d MA. ASML Holding (ASML), Home Depot (HD), JP Morgan (JPM), and Oracle (ORCL) were the top mega-caps of the day. At the bottom of the list were Alibaba (BABA), Tesla (TSLA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Nvidia (NVDA). Growth stocks had a tough day. The ones that had gains included Lemonade (LMND), Peloton (PTON), DR Horton (DHI), and PayCom (PAYC). Fiverr (VFR), Sumo Logic (SUMO), JD.com (JD), and NIO (NIO) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday brings an update to Core Retail Sales for April. Export/Import Price Index data will also be released. Closer to open, we will get updates on Industrial Production and Business Inventories data. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers for May will come after the market open. Another large round of Japanese earnings reports comes on Friday. UP fintech (TIGR) will also report on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq tested the 13,000 area again and found support, closing above the area. If the one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 4/29 high continue, the index will decline -0.83% decline tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -2.41% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Although the indexes ended the days with gains, the choppy ride and the low volume raise some alarms. Is this a pivot point to the upside or simply a pause on the way down? Indeed, there is good news in the jobs recovery, and we'll be likely to see increased retail sales tomorrow. But that may stoke more inflation fears and send investors further into defensive mode. You could say that today was a positive expectation breaker since my expectation was for Sideways or Lower. Still, the inside day, thin red body and weak volume, plus the number of declining stocks, don't feel positive. So I'm still setting an expectation for sideways or lower tomorrow and waiting for the index to prove itself. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/12 Summary: Consumer price index data was higher than expected which is great for the US dollar, but sent investors into a selling frenzy as they reacted to higher inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates. It's a conflicting mix of being glad the economy is recovering, but also trying to price in the impact to valuations and potential reactions by the Fed to an overheated economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 12, 2021 Facts: -2.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 64% Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close, all day selling Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Longer upper wick over a tick red body, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.14%), DJI (-1.99%), RUT (-3.26%), VIX (+26.33%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.48%) and Health (XLV -0.94%) were top. Technology (XLK -2.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.39%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer price index data was higher than expected which is great for the US dollar, but sent investors into a selling frenzy as they reacted to higher inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates. It's a conflicting mix of being glad the economy is recovering, but also trying to price in the impact to valuations and potential reactions by the Fed to an overheated economy. The Nasdaq closed down -2.67% on the fourth day in a row of lower highs, lower lows and lower closes. The closing range of 10% comes underneath a 64% red body and a long upper wick formed in a quick but short-lived rebound at open. The selling pressure existed throughout the day as give stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took the worst hit for the day with a -3.26% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -2.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI) lost -1.99%. The VIX volatility index rose +26.33%. In a flip from the previous day, Energy (XLE +0.48%) went from the bottom of the sector list to being the only sector to end today with a gain. Health (XLV -0.94%) was the next best sector even though losing almost 1% for the day. Only Materials (XLB +0.33%) ended the day with gains while Communications (XLC -0.29%) was the second best sector. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) moved the bottom of the sector list. Dominated by big tech and high growth companies that are impacted by inflation and higher interest rates, thhe Technology (XLK -2.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.39%) sectors were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.67%. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day and the yield curve steepened. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.978. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved well into the Fear side, but still short of Extreme Fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined. Only Alphabet (GOOGL) remains above its 50d moving average line, declining -3.08% today. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) both lost -2.49%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -2.23%. Only a few mega-caps had gains for the day, with Pfizer (PFE), Toyota Motor (TM ), Chevron (CVX) and Abbvie (ABBV) topping the list. ASML Holding (ASML), Tesla (TSLA), Home Depot (HD) and Nvidia (NVDA) were at the bottom of the list. None of the daily update growth stocks had gains for the day. Best performing were Ehang Holdings (EH), Alibaba (BABA), Facebook (FB) and Sumo Logic (SUMO). At the bottom of the list was Fastly (FSLY), FUTU Holding (FUTU) and Lemonade (LMND), all with greater than 10% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Produce Price Index data will be released in the morning, which is a leading indicator to consumer prices and another input on inflation worries. The weekly update on Jobless Claims also comes in the morning. Earnings Reports include Alibaba (BABA), Walt Disney (DIS), AirBnB (ABNB), Coinbase (COIN), DoorDash (DASH), Farfetch (FTCH), Celsius (CELH), and DermTech (DMTK). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to retreat below the 50d moving average line. It closed today just above the 13,000 support line which was first acted as resistance in December, turned to a support area in January. The index dipped below the line twice since that time but then quickly moved back above. Returning to the midpoint of the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a +0.72% advance. The five-day trend line points to a -0.13% decline tomorrow, a relative sideways move. The one-day trend, if it continues, would result in a -1.41% decline, busting through 13,000 support. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I wrote yesterday that I hoped the worst of inflation was already priced in and possibly inflation would be less than expected or at least at expectation. Well the core consumer price index showed a worst picture than expected. After the data was released, flipping back to the pre-market QQQ chart was enough to tell you how the rest of the day would go. Red. Tomorrow is produce price index data, and we are somewhat in the same boat. If the data is lower than expected, that should be some positive for investors. But if the index is more than expected, those prices would show up in consumer prices further down the road and indicate no soon end to inflation. The Fed believes inflation is transitionary and will move back below 2% in the second half of the year. Some analysts would disagree. You can decide who you want to believe. Or just follow the master fortune teller: the market. Do expect a rough ride. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Updated

Daily Market Update for 5/11 Summary: A gap down must have shocked the bulls into action as the major indices crawled their way back up from morning lows. The results show a rotation happened underneath a market sell-off. Growth stocks benefited from the rotation while the broader market had more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 87% Good: Solid green body as bulls take over after gap down Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick green body with short upper wick and high closing range Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.87%), DJI (-1.36%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+11.09%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -0.29%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A gap down must have shocked the bulls into action as the major indices crawled their way back up from morning lows. The results show a rotation happened underneath a market sell-off. Growth stocks benefited from the rotation while the broader market had more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed down -0.09% on lower volume. Despite a thick green-bodied candle, the lower high, lower low and lower close continue a downtrend that's in its ninth day. The body covers 87% of the candle with a closing range of 89% under a thin upper wick. Two stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the next best major index with a -0.26% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.87%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed with a -1.36%, gapping down after setting a new all-time high yesterday. The VIX volatility index advanced +11.09% after being up more than 20% intraday. Only Materials (XLB +0.33%) ended the day with gains while Communications (XLC -0.29%) was the second best sector. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) moved the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.12%. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.865. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at neutral, moving just slightly to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was the only big four mega-cap to gain for the day, advancing +1.05% to get back above the 50d MA after gapping down at open. Apple (APPL) declined -0.74%, closing below its 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.38% but was able to climb back above the 40d MA before close. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.95% and closed below its 21d EMA. At the top of the mega-cap list were PayPal (PYPL), Netflix (NFLX), Adobe (ADBE) and Amazon (AMZN). Most mega-caps declined for the day. The biggest decliners include Exxon Mobil (XOM), Oracle (ORCL), Home Depot (HD) and Chevron (CVX). Growth stocks had a great day, especially considered against the major indices. Fastly (FSLY), Palantir (PLTR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fiverr (FVRR), and Chewy (CHWY) were top gainers with advances above 5%. All of these could be marking bottom pivots if rotation continues into growth. At the bottom of the growth stock list were Draft Kings (DKNG), RH (RH), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and DR Horton (DHI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data for April will be released on Wednesday. An indicator of inflation, the numbers will be watched closely. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning after market open. The 10y treasure note auction will be in the afternoon. Toyota Motor (TM) along with a large number of Japanese company earnings reports will be released on Wednesday. Some other interesting reports will include Dynatrace (DT) and Bumble (BMBL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq remains below the 50d moving average line. The one-day trend, if it continues, would result in a +1.69% gain. That would bring the index back above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a -0.36% decline tomorrow. Following the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a -0.83% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's not clear to me why investors decided to jump back into growth stocks today. Perhaps they see a bottom and wanted to catch it. Or it's possible that a record amount of shorts on passive instruments such as ETFs is reversing and a short squeeze is underway. Or even a gamma squeeze as market makers cover the positions. Highly shorted ETFs have included tech and growth stocks as well as the QQQ ETF itself. So predicting where things will go next may be difficult. Expect a reaction, for better or worse, to the consumer price index data being released tomorrow, which will provide a view on inflation. I have some hope that the worst is already priced in and if the data shows less inflation than expected, we could get a boost. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/10 Summary: Inflation looms over big tech and growth stocks like an approaching hurricane, keeping investors wondering when and how big it will hit. Last week's jobs data supported the government's case that there is still support needed for economic recovery and that inflation is transitionary. But a shutdown oil pipeline over the weekend has investors worried. And the coming updates on consumer and producer price index data are causing them to take a cautious stance. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 10, 2021 Facts: -2.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 100% Good: Nothing Bad: All red body, selling from open to close with a failed rally of the 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu red, no upper or lower wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.76%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.92%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%). Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation looms over big tech and growth stocks like an approaching hurricane, keeping investors wondering when and how big it will hit. Last week's jobs data supported the government's case that there is still support needed for economic recovery and that inflation is transitionary. But a shutdown oil pipeline over the weekend has investors worried. And the coming updates on consumer and producer price index data are causing them to take a cautious stance. The result was a big hit to big tech and growth stocks as the Nasdaq closed with a -2.55% decline on higher volume. The ominous marubozu candle has no upper and lower wick. It is 100% red body with a 0% closing range. The high of the day was the open and the low of the day was the close. There was a brief rally as the index hit the 50d moving average, but it was short and failed sending the index below the key support line. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also suffered from investors reducing risk, declining -2.59% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was the least impacted with a -0.10% decline. The VIX volatility index advanced +17.80% for the day. Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.76%) were top sectors for the day as investors took defensive positions. Communications (XLC -1.92%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%) were the big losers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced slightly, gaining +0.05% after last week's dip. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) was flay while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.693. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss with a -3.07% decline and closed below its 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) declined -2.58%, closing right at the 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -2.56%, closing right at the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -2.09%, closing below the 21d EMA but above the 50d MA. Not all mega-caps declined for the day. Proctor & Gamble (PG), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) held the top spots with over 1% gains. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), Facebook (FB) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). There were four stocks in the daily update growth list that gained for the day. Dr Horton (DHI) has been consistently done well on high demand in housing. The other three, Peloton (PTON), Etsy (ETSY), and Fastly (FSLY) were all in a very oversold state after sell-offs last week. At the bottom of the growth stock list were Lemonade (LMND), UP Fintech (TIGR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Digital Turbine (APPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, we will get the Monthly OPEC Report and the EIA Shot-Term Energy Outlook. The JOLTS Job Openings report for March will be released just after market open. FOMC Members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. There's also a 3y note-auction which is not quite as important as the 10y, but may be viewed as a preview for the longer term auction performance. Earnings releases will include Electronic Arts (EA), Palantir (PLTR), Unity Software (U), Quantumscape (QS), Plug Power (PLUG), Upstart (UPST), Lemonade (LMND), Open Lending (LPRO), and SelectQuote (SLQT). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq fell below the 50d moving average line today after failing to keep above the 21d EMA on Friday. I've removed the trend line from the 3/5 low and added a trend line from the 4/29 high. The five-day trend line points to a +1.48% recovery gain tomorrow. Following the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a sideways move tomorrow. That could be likely as investors wait for further input from economic data on Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a -1.02% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The uncertainty around inflation continues to be a drag on big tech and growth stocks. Not only does it drag down the future value of earnings potential (which will impact growth stocks more than value stocks), but it also tests investors trust of the fed not to raise interest rates. It's a certainty that if the Fed mentions anything around monetary policy changes at this point, that investors will react severely. So what can you do? First of all, you could just go to cash and wait for better news. That news might come on Wednesday and/or Thursday if consumer and producer index data is lower than expected. The market seems to be pricing in the worst, so there's a good chance for a correction to the upside if the data shows less inflation. But you can also just stay focused on the stocks in your portfolio. Which ones are performing better than others and seem to be less impacted by inflation news? As inflation numbers go up, it's likely those stocks will continue have better relative strength. Keep stop losses in place to protect against any sudden rotations back to higher risk segments. If you get shaken out of a position, consider holding cash instead of entering new positions until the trend changes. Above all, always follow your system and your rules for investing your money. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/7 Summary: More records were set as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average both had record closes while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 joined the rally, also making gains. Employment data in the morning caused the dollar to fall which can give a boost to mega-caps and growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 7, 2021 Facts: +0.88%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 21% Good: Higher close, higher high, higher low, confirmation of yesterday's hammer Bad: Lower volume, gap-up may need revisiting Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer upper wick over a thin green body in lower half of candle, gap-up at open Advance/Decline: About three gaining stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.78%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.30%) and Consumer Staples (+0.00%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview More records were set as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average both had record closes while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 joined the rally, also making gains. Employment data in the morning caused the dollar to fall which can give a boost to mega-caps and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.88% gain. Volume was lower and the morning rally faded through the day, giving the candle a 60% closing range (including the gap) and a thin 21% body under a long upper wick. Nonetheless, the positive gain with a higher high and higher low is a confirmation of the previous day's reversal hammer candle. There were three gaining stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.75%, while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) advanced +0.66%, both having record closes. The Russell 200 (RUT) gained +1.35% and closed with a 99% closing range. The VIX volatility index declined -9.24%. Energy (XLE +1.78%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.30%) and Consumer Staples (+0.00%) were bottom. No sectors declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.73% after non-farm employment data was lower than expected. The US 30y, 10y advanced while the 2y yield declined, widening the spread between long and short term treasury notes. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. A continuing trend in the commodities resulting from the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.650. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved a bit more toward the greed side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 87.79, after topping 100 last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the biggest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined with a -0.45% loss, closing underneath its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.36% but could not quite close above the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) gapped-up at open and closed with a +1.09% gain, moving above its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) has been trading above the 21d EMA and continued its rally with a +0.62% gain today. Nike (NKE), ASML Holding (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA) and Comcast (CMCSA) topped the mega-caps list. At the bottom of the list were Verizon Communications (VZ), AT&T (T), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Walmart (WMT). Roku (ROKU) please investors with earnings, sending it to the top of the growth stock list with a 11.55% gain for the day. DataDog (DDOG), Digital Turbine (APPS) and Grow Generation (GRWG) were also near the top of the list with greater than 5% gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Monday. JD.com (JD), Marriott (MAR), Roblox (RBLX), Trade Desk (TTD), Trex (TREX), Magnite (MGNI) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied above the 21d EMA briefly before fading and closing below the line, but above the 13,600-13,700 support area. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +3.51% advance. The one-day trend line points to a -0.03% loss. The five-day trend line points to a -2.19% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Nonfarm employment data that was lower than expected today, sent the US Dollar tumbling. That was a good thing for large mega-caps and growth companies that benefit from a weaker dollar. But it alsos cause indexes to rise, including passive indexed instruments such as ETFs. There is data that shows a large number of short selling of ETFs from hedgefunds in the past month. No doubt, you probably have some stocks that seemed to never get support and they were likely impacted by the short selling. But when the big indexes start to move, those shorts need to be covered and it can cause the broader rally we saw today. I've marked an expectation for sideways on Monday, but let's hope for a continued squeeze that could take the major indexes another leg higher. Have a good weekend! Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/6 Summary: Another record was set for the Dow Jones Industrial average while value stocks continue to outpace growth stocks. Two intraday rallies might just be the action the Nasdaq needed to join the rally, but the gains were mostly isolated to the mega-caps. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 6, 2021 Facts: +0.37%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 38% Good: High closing range with gain on higher volume Bad: Lower low with dip below 50d moving average Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Hammer with long lower wick and smaller body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+0.00%), VIX (-3.97%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.29%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.22%) and Health (XLV -0.13%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Another record was set for the Dow Jones Industrial average while value stocks continue to outpace growth stocks. Two intraday rallies might just be the action the Nasdaq needed to join the rally, but the gains were mostly isolated to the mega-caps. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.37% gain on higher volume. The mid-day rallies formed a long lower wick with a smaller 38% green body in the upper half of the candle, forming a hammer. A hammer can signal a trend reversal but needs to be confirmed the following day. The closing range of 99% comes after a rally late in the afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) had another record close, gaining +0.93% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed +0.82%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed just about where it opened for no gain or loss. The VIX volatility index declined -3.97%. Financials (XLF +1.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.29%) topped the sector list. All sectors ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.22%) and Health (XLV -0.13%) were the worst performers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) stayed about the same with a -0.40% decline. The US 30y, 10y declined while the 2y yields rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.722. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps reversed intraday losses to end the day with gains. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.28%. Microsoft (MSFT) had a +1.32% gain. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.10%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.98%. Apple and Microsoft reversals came after tests of their 50 moving average. Alphabet (GOOGL) came close to the 21d EMA before moving higher. Cisco (CSCO), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), JP Morgan (JPM) and PayPal (PYPL) were the top mega-caps for today. The majority of mega-caps ended the day with gains. Pfizer (PFE) and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list with more than 1% declines. There were a few winners in the daily update growth stock list. Zynga (ZNGA) gained +5.62% after giving surprise guidance in their earnings call. Ehang Holdings (EH), PayPal (PYPL) and Facebook (FB) were other growth stocks at the top of the list. Fastly (FSLY) declined -27.13%, disappointing investors with their earnings release. Etsy (ETSY) also dropped after an earnings disappointment, declining -14.57%. CloudFlare (NET) declined -12.59%, but gained 8% after hours with an earnings report that exceeded expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More labor statistics will be released on Friday with the Average Hourly Earnings data, Nonfarm Payrolls, Labor Participation data and the Unemployment rate all released before market open. Adidas (ADDYY), BMW (BMWYY), DraftKings (DKNG), Cinemark (CNK) are a few of the companies to report on Friday and end a big earnings week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below the 50d moving average, but closed above the line. It also touched the lower boundary of a channel drawn from March 2020. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +4.22% advance which does not seem possible unless investor sentiment changed dramatically. The one-day trend line points to a -0.63% loss. The five-day trend line points to a -0.76% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Initial jobless claims data was much lower than expected, helping drive the rally in the Dow Jones today. But the Nasdaq dipped below the 50d moving average twice before finally rallying into close. Investors continued to react to the guidance in earnings reports much more closely than meeting current quarter expectations. Based on the hammer candlestick today, I'll look for sideways or higher tomorrow as an expectation. If so, that would be a nice confirmation of the reversal represented by today's candle. If not, then I'll continue to feel the pain while value stocks feel the gain. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/5 Summary: This is not the rally we are looking for. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed at a record high today while the rest of the market struggled to hold any gains, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 falling further behind the other major indexes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 Facts: -0.39%, Volume lower, Closing range: 13%, Body: 76% Good: Lower than average volume Bad: Lower high, thick red body from afternoon decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thick red body with similar small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.37%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (-1.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.23%) and Materials (XLB +1.27%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.47%) and Utilities (XLU -1.69%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview This is not the rally we are looking for. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed at a record high today while the rest of the market struggled to hold any gains, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 falling further behind the other major indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.39% loss for the day on lower than average volume. The 13% closing range is under a 76% body with a short lower wick created from a late afternoon dip. The short upper wick was formed just after open before the bears took over. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.29% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) was nearly flat at a +0.07% advance. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.31%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.69%. Cyclicals are still the focus for the market, the only gaining sectors for the day. Energy (XLE +3.23%) and Materials (XLB +1.27%) were top. Crude Oil Inventories were much lower than expected, signaling higher demand. Real Estate (XLRE -1.47%) and Utilities (XLU -1.69%) were at the bottom. It doesn't seem investors are fleeing to safe bets like utilities, but they are going aggressively after cyclical stocks and not broadly making bets across all sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) stayed about the same with a -0.02% decline. The US 30y, 10y and 2y yields all declined with the yield curve flattening some more. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.655. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained for the day with +0.20% and +0.35% advances. Microsoft declined -0.53%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.25%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) led the mega-caps with ~3% gains. ASML Holding (ASML) and AbbVie (ABBV) round out the top four. Mastercard (MA), Walt Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) were the bottom four mega-caps. Growth stocks continue to struggle in the current market. Penn National Gaming (PENN), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Nvidia (NVDA) and Solar Edge (SEDG) were at the top of a short list of growth stock gains for the day. Peloton (PTON) fell more than 14% on news of a recall on their Treadmills. Moderna (MRNA) fell -6.19% as the US decided to support lifting patent protections for COVID vaccines. Ehang Holdings (EH) and Roku (ROKU) were also at the bottom of the growth stock list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers will be released on Thursday morning as well as Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. Thursday will be another busy day of earnings reports. Linde (LIN), Anheuser Busch (BUD), Volkswagen (BWAPY), Square (SQ), Fidelity (FIS), Moderna (MRNA), Roku (ROKU), Expedia (EXPE), Beyond Meat (BYND), AMC Entertainment (AMC) are some of the interesting reports. The earnings list is long, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved back below the 13,600 - 13,700 area, but remains above the 50d moving average. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +4.22% advance which does not seem possible unless investor sentiment changed dramatically. The one-day trend line points to a -0.63% loss. The five-day trend line points to a -0.76% decline. If we break below the 50d MA, we'll start a new trend line from the 4/29 all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The story of earnings reactions continues this week. If you want to know what investors care about, it's pretty obvious they are looking beyond results and want to see guidance for the remainder of the year. That's the challenge for companies like Twilio and Etsy who beat earnings estimates this quarter but are offering lower guidance for the remainder of the year compared to the massive performance they had during the height of the pandemic. Both were down in afterhours trading. On the other hand, Zynga (ZNGA) missed estimates but offered upbeat guidance and rose more than 5% in after hours. The mortal sin however was to miss estimates and also not provide a positive outlook. Fastly (FSLY) did just that and dropped -17.5% after hours. Ouch! Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 5/4 Summary: The market sold off sharply at open after comments from Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates might need to increase to keep the economy from overheating. Investors fled sectors more sensitive to interest rate hikes and rotated into the cyclical sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 4, 2021 Facts: -1.88%, Volume higher, Closing range: 37% (w/gap), Body: 45% Good: Bounced off 50d moving average line Bad: Gap down on news, high volume distribution Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.67%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-1.28%), VIX (+6.39%) Sectors: Materials (+1.09%) and Financials (XLF +0.80%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market sold off sharply at open after comments from Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates might need to increase to keep the economy from overheating. Investors fled sectors more sensitive to interest rate hikes and rotated into the cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq opened with a gap-down and closed the day with a -1.88% decline on much higher volume. The index continued to decline after open until it hit the 50d moving average and found support through the afternoon. The result is a long lower wick underneath a 45% red body and a 37% closing range, considering the gap as part of the range. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Only the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was able to recover from the morning sell-off and gain +0.06% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) dipped just below its 21d EMA before climbing back to end the day with a -0.67% decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.28%. The VIX volatility index advanced +6.39% but was up 20% intraday. The cyclical sectors benefited from the volatile day, with Materials (+1.09%) and Financials (XLF +0.80%) at the top of the list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.79%) were bottom, sectors that are exposed to higher interest rates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.35%. The US 30y treasury bond yield and 10y note yield both declined. The 2y note yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.741. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps all had big declines. Apple (AAPL) declined -3.54%, finding support at its 50d moving average. Microsoft lost -1.62%. Amazon (AMZN) dropped below its 21d EMA with a -2.20% decline. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the only of the four to remain above the key moving average lines with a -1.55% loss today. AT&T (T), Oracle (ORCL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the top mega-caps for the day. ASML Holdings (ASML), Apple (AAPL), PayPal (PYPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) were at the bottom of the list. Only a few of the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains. Peloton (PTON) and DR Horton (DHI) advanced under 1%. At the bottom of the list was Solar Edge (SEDG) with a 15.95% decline, disappointing investors with its earnings report. Moderna (MRNA), Enphase (ENPH) and SNAP (SNAP) also found themselves at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment data will be released on Wednesday morning. In addition, the purchasing manager indexes for Services and Non-Manufacturing sectors will be released after the market opens. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning as well. PayPal (PYPL), Uber (UBER), Boking (BKNG), General Motors (GM), MercadoLibre (MELI), Twilio (TWLO), Rocket (RKT), Hilton (HLT), Etsy (ETSY), HubSpot (HUBS), 10x Genomics (TXG), Qorvo (QRVO), Zynga (ZNGA), Fastly (FSLY), Redfin (RDFN), Palomar (PLMR) is an abbreviated list of a massive number of earnings reports for Wednesday. The earnings list is long, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at its 50d moving average line today and moved back into the 13,600 - 13,700 area. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +3.84% advance which would require a substantial confidence booster for investors to get that in one day. Nonetheless, it is the mid-point of that longer regression trend channel. The five-day trend line points to a -0.69% decline. The one-day trend line points to a -0.94% loss. If we break below the 50d MA, we'll start a new trend line from the 4/29 all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've known how sensitive investors are to inflation and interest rate news. It showed up in last week's cold reception to any positive news, whether positive earnings or good economic numbers. And so it just took a few words from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to send investors into a frenzy this morning. Later in the day, she is walking back the comments but the damage to investor confidence is done. The good news is that in today's after hours market, reactions to positive earnings reports seems to be good. Lyft (LYFT) was trading up 6.10% after an earnings surprise. Zillow (Z) was up almost 5% with its earnings beat. Skillz (SKLZ) was down slightly after volatile aftermarket session as investors reacted to its earnings beat and improved guidance. Expecting sideways or lower for tomorrow with a hope for a positive expectation breaker. Stay healthy and trade safe!

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