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Daily Market Update for 4/30 Summary: It was not a great end to the month of April, with a failed rally in the morning that turned into lower lows in the afternoon. Investors are watching economic data closely, especially focused on measures of inflation driving expectations for an overheated economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 30, 2021 Facts: -0.85%, Volume lower, Closing range: 15%, Body: 6% Good: Not much Bad: Failed rally in the morning, newer low in the afternoon Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper wick and thin red body show the failed morning rally Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.54%), RUT (-1.26%), VIX (+5.68%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.79%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.66%) were top sectors. Technology (XLK -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -2.53%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was not a great end to the month of April, with a failed rally in the morning that turned into lower lows in the afternoon. Investors are watching economic data closely, especially focused on measures of inflation driving expectations for an overheated economy. The Nasdaq closed the last day of April with a -0.85% decline on lower volume. The 6% body under a long upper wick and 15% closing range are the result of a morning rally attempt that faded quickly and turned into lower lows at the end of the day. The index was able to close just above the intraday low. Three stocks declined for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed down -0.85% after a record close the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed down -0.54%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing index of the day with a -1.26% decline. The VIX volatility index advanced +5.68%. Utilities (XLU +0.79%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.66%) were top sectors as investors fled for safety within equity markets. Only four sectors closed the day with gains. Technology (XLK -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -2.53%) were the worst performing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had advanced +0.73% on very bullish consumer data. The US 30y treasury bond yield remained flat while the 10y and 2y note yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.790. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) recovered from lows to close just -0.13% and a nice thick green candle on lower volume. It's trading below its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.51% and closed just above the 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.11% and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -1.64%. Both are still trading well above key moving average lines and near all-time highs. Amazon could not hold onto aftermarket gains from a positive earnings report. A bit of a theme for the week. Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Exxon Mobile (XOM), ASML Holdings (ASML), PayPal (PYPL) and Nvidia (NVDA). Only a handful of the daily update growth stocks rose for the day. Digital Turbine (APPS), NIO (NIO), Moderna (MRNA) and Snowflake (SNOW) topped the list. At the bottom of the list was Twitter (TWTR) with a huge -15.16% declined after providing disappointing guidance on user growth. Roku (ROKU), Solar Edge (SEDG) and Etsy (ETSY) were also at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick off the month of May with Manufacturing data, which should show growth in the sector given the other economic recovery data. Earnings reports on Monday will include Alibaba (BABA), Estee Lauder (EL), Loews (LO), SolarEdge (SEDG), and Avis (CAR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is back just below the 14,000 line. If it dips again, expect some resistance at this line before making new highs. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +1.65% advance. The five-day trend line results in a +0.16% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.61% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The week was full of positive earnings reports that turned into lower prices for the stocks. Investors seem worried that some of these outperforming companies will not be able to hold the growth into the next few quarters, especially relative to the previous year. Investors were especially sensitive to any guidance that was neutral to negative for the coming quarters. In addition to that sentiment, investors are watching economic indicators very closely. Although inflation is a positive sign that economic activity is returning, driving demand faster than supply, too much inflation could cause a reaction from the Fed. Not everyone believes the Fed will sit back indefinitely waiting for transitional inflation to subside. That results in investors moving into safer assets as they look over the coming quarters. Still, reactions are sometimes temporary and we could see investments rotate back into equities. For now, the expectation for the index is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/29 Summary: We got higher, we got lower and we got sideways. It was a whiplash day for the markets that saw record highs be broken right before a painful morning sell-off. Then the afternoon rally brought most of the major indexes back into positive territory and left the S&P 500 at another all-time record close. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 29, 2021 Facts: +0.22%, Volume higher, Closing range: 50%, Body: 47% Good: New all-time high, higher volume, recovery from morning selling in afternoon Bad: Couldn't hold the high, lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, long lower wick with a thick red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.68%), DJI (+0.71%), RUT (-0.38%), VIX (+1.91%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +2.77%) and Financial (XLF +1.78%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.08%) and Health (XLV -0.40%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview We got higher, we got lower and we got sideways. It was a whiplash day for the markets that saw record highs be broken right before a painful morning sell-off. Then the afternoon rally brought most of the major indexes back into positive territory and left the S&P 500 at another all-time record close. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.22% gain, a close that is within the highs and lows of the week, marking a sideways move. Volume was higher as the morning high set a record for the index, before selling off to a morning low which is also a low for the week. Finally in the afternoon, the index climbed back to the positive, leaving us with a long lower wick underneath a 47% red body and 50% closing range. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 closed at a record high, gaining +0.68% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed the day with a +0.71% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) underperformed the other indexes for the first time in several days, losing -0.38%. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.91%. Communications (XLC +2.77%) was a top sector thanks to earning reports from Alphabet earlier in the week and Facebook yesterday. Financials (XLF +1.78%) was the second best of the day. Technology (XLK -0.08%) and Health (XLV -0.40%) were the only losing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had advanced +0.04%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yield advanced while the 2y note yield both declined. The yield curve is beginning to steepen again with the spread between long term and short term yields widening over the past week. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advancedslightly. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.585. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more toward the extreme greed range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index topped for the first time since February, coming in at 103.72 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) it's advance after a great earnings report earlier this week, gaining +1.53% today. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.37% ahead of earnings today. Aftermarket the stock is +2.3% on a positive reaction from earnings. Apple (AAPL) ended the day with a -0.07% after a positive earnings report that sent the stock up +2.61% before fading. Microsoft (MSFT) continues a second day of declines, losing -0.81% today and closing below its 21d EMA. Facebook (FB) topped the list of mega-caps with a +7.3% gain and helping the communications sector top the sector list for the day. Comcast (CMCSA), Bank of America (BAC) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also topped the list with greater than 2% gains. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL) and Alibaba (BABA). It was not a great day for growth stocks, with most of the stocks in the daily update list declining for the day. Pinterest (PINS), Dr Horton (DHI), Zynga (ZNGA) were among the few gainers. MongoDB (MDB), Ehang Holdings (EH), NIO (NIO) and ServiceNow (NOW) had losses over 5% with ServiceNow declining -9.37%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, new GDP data will be released which is expected to be 6.5%. Initial Jobless Claims data will hopefully continue to fall. Pending Home Sales data will be released after market open. Friday will close the big earnings week with Alibaba (BABA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), AstraZeneca (AZN), Johnson Controls (JCI), and Komatsu (KMTUY). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index set a new all-time high today, then dipped between the 14,000 support area before the bulls came in to end back above the key level. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.99% advance. The five-day trend line results in a +0.71% gain. Despite the lower close, the one-day trend line points to a +0.20% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a whiplash day with a mixed finish. A record close for the S&P 500, an indecisive candle on the RUT, and a mediocre finish for the Nasdaq. Move earnings have been met with positive reaction after hours only to turn into negative moves the following day. But overall the market is still in an uptrend. We'll look for momentum from the today's afternoon to carry into tomorrow's morning, hopefully boosted by positive economic news around employment and consumer sentiment and behaviors. The expectations is still for sideways or higher and if we get lower, we'll revisit what might be driving investors in one direction or the other. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/28 Summary: The market attempted to rally a few times today but came back to rest at intraday lows. The good news is those lows seemed to be support areas that the bears could not bust below. The two intraday rallies came in the morning and afternoon, the first possibly on earnings reactions and the second on no surprises from the FOMC press conference. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 28, 2021 Facts: -0.28%, Volume lower, Closing range: 17%, Body: 32% Good: Lower volume, sideways movement, with support above 14,000 Bad: Lower high and lower low with a low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper wick above a small red body and low closing range Advance/Decline: Just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-1.59%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.45%) and Communications (XLC +0.92%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.35%) and Technology (XLK -0.93%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market attempted to rally a few times today but came back to rest at intraday lows. The good news is those lows seemed to be support areas that the bears could not bust below. The two intraday rallies came in the morning and afternoon, the first possibly on earnings reactions and the second on no surprises from the FOMC press conference. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.28% loss in a day after testing and getting support around 14,050 three times. The long upper wick was formed from the morning and afternoon rally. The small 32% red body rests in the bottom of the candle above a 17% closing range and a small lower wick. Volume was lower for the day and there were just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to outperform with a +0.13% advance today. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.08% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.48%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.59%. The combination of low volatility, along with low volume decline, plus the support at intraday lows is a good signal. Energy (XLE +1.21%) and Communications (XLC +0.92%) were the top sectors of the day. Energy was buoyed by positive data on oil demand. Communications rose on excitement over Alphabet's surprise beat on earnings. Real Estate (XLRE -0.35%) and Technology (XLK -0.93%) were the bottom performers for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had declined -0.32%. The US 30y treasury bond yield remained flat. The US 10y and 2y treasury note yields both declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices stayed flat. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also had small declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.602. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains just on the greed side of the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) had opposite reactions to positive earnings reports, likely based on investor reaction to guidance given during the releases. Alphabet gapped higher with a +2.97% gain for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) gapped lower with a -2.83% loss for the day. Both break out in opposite directions from their respective bases. Microsoft's base broke downward but did get support at the 21d EMA line. Amazon (AMZN) continues a breakout from earlier this week with a +1.20% gain today. Apple (AAPL) moved lower with a -0.60% loss, but remains within its base. Exxon Mobile (XOM), Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) join Alphabet as the top four mega-caps for the day. Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holdings (ASML) were the bottom four. UP Fintech (TIGR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), SNAP (SNAP) and Etsy (ETSY) topped the daily update growth stock list. At the bottom of the list were Enphase (ENPH) and Pinterest (PINS) with big -14% losses. AMD had a very positive post market reaction from yesterday's earnings report, but couldn't hold the gains and ended the day with a -1.40% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, new GDP data will be released which is expected to be 6.5%. Initial Jobless Claims data will hopefully continue to fall. Pending Home Sales data will be released after market open. We will also get any reaction from Biden's remarks to congress which are expected to have updates on economic support as well as taxes to pay for infrastructure plans. Earnings reports have been mostly positive this week, but reactions have been mixed. On Thursday, reports include Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), McDonald's (MCD), Baidu (BIDU), Atlassian (TEAM), Twitter (TWTR), Fortinet (FTNT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and Logitech (LOGI). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index declined today but stayed about the 14,000 support area. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.99% advance. The five-day trend line results in a +0.71% gain. Despite the lower close, the one-day trend line points to a +0.20% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A few positive earnings reports weren't enough to give the markets the lift they needed, although the bulls certainly made attempts during the day. Nervousness remained over additional earnings reports coming later today and this week. And investors await remarks from Biden that will include proposals around new taxes. The capital gains tax would seem to be priced in by now, but any further surprises from the President's speech could have a negative reaction. However, given the support the index got at intraday lows above 14,000 and the positive earnings reports in after hours, it's reasonable to expect the markets to move higher tomorrow. At a minimum they should move sideways. If they move lower, then that should be a red flag that something else is going on. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/27 Summary: The Nasdaq opened with a gap up but couldn't hold on, selling off briskly in the morning along with the other major indexes. Eventually positive consumer confidence numbers and continued growing demand outlook from OPEC helped the markets to settle down and end the day with a relatively small pull back overall. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 27, 2021 Facts: -0.34%, Volume higher, Closing range: 24%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Gap up at open, but couldn't hold on, distribution day on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, thick red body with a short lower wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for each advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (+0.01%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-0.45%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.21%) and Industrials (XLI +0.83%) were top. Health (XLV -0.58%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq opened with a gap up but couldn't hold on, selling off briskly in the morning along with the other major indexes. Eventually positive consumer confidence numbers and continued growing demand outlook from OPEC helped the markets to settle down and end the day with a relatively small pull back overall. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.34% decline on higher volume. The distribution day resulted in a 75% red body that ended with a 25% closing range. A small lower wick was formed in the morning before the index found support above 14,000. The higher high and higher low continue an uptrend since last Wednesday. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed again with a +0.14% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) ended the day with a +0.01% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.02%. The VIX volatility index declined -0.45%. Only three sectors gained for the day. Energy (XLE +1.21%), Industrials (XLI +0.83%), Financials (XLF +0.79%) were the gainers. Health (XLV -0.58%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) were the biggest losers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had a small +0.05% gain. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. The spread widened between the 10y and 2y note yields. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.548. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains just on the greed side of the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) advanced with +0.16% and +0.25% gains. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined with -0.24% and -0.82% losses. Both Microsoft and Alphabet beat expectations on earnings reports after hours. Microsoft declined almost 4% in afterhours trading before gaining back some. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained over 4% in afterhours. The mixed reactions are result of the high expectations from investors. Microsoft had great results, but Alphabet absolutely smashed results. Alphabet also announced a stock buyback of $50 billion. Alibaba (BABA), Exxon Mobile (XOM), Bank of America (BAC) and Oracle (ORCL) were a diverse mix of mega-caps to top the list for today. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -4.53% decline despite beating analyst expectations in their earnings report yesterday. Intel (INTC), Verizon (VZ) and PayPal (PYPL) round out the top four mega-caps. Growth stocks were mixed for the day. Ehang Holdings (EH), RH (RH), Moderna (MRNA) and JD.com (JD) were the top gainers, all advancing over 3%. UP Fintech (TIGR), NIO (NIO) and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list. Investors reacted positively to AMD's (AMD) earnings report, sending the stock up 4%. Pinterest (PINS) warned about lower user growth after the pandemic and the stock slid over 10% in afterhours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday's news will include the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories before market open. Crude Oil Inventories after the market open. There is a Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference after 2pm. No changes are expected to monetary policy, but investors will watch closely the words and tone during the broadcast. President Biden is expected to announce his tax proposals in a speech after the market closes. There may be some caution added to the market sentiment tomorrow based on the latter two news events. Wednesday includes earnings reports from Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boeing (BA), Shopify (SHOP), ServiceNow (NOW), ADP (ADP), Spotify (SPOT), Ford (F), eBay (EBAY), and Teladoc (TDOC). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index nearly made it to a new all-time high before dipping in the morning. It did hold key support areas. The five-day trend line results in a +0.96% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.25% decline. The one-day trend line shows a sideways trend to -0.08%, which may be reasonable if sentiment is cautious heading into the late day speeches by the Fed and President. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It feels like the market is search for some direction based on earnings reports released so far this week. Tesla had great results, but investors are cautious about some of the headwinds in China and the safety issues in the US. Microsoft had record results but not quite enough to keep investors satisfied after hours. Alphabet and AMD were heartedly supported after their results. The reaction to other earnings reports such as Visa and Starbucks seem to be in line with the results. Based on the candlestick chart, the higher high and higher low kept the Nasdaq in an uptrend, but the red candle and failed gap up provide some mixed signal. So the expectation is for sideways tomorrow and investors continue to cautiously watch earnings while also reacting to the tone from the Fed and any unexpected news from Biden. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/26 Summary: Momentum from the end of last week continued into Monday as markets open the week higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records. There are some signs that investors are rotating out of safe bets and buying up speculative positions ahead of earnings reports. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 26, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 64% Good: Move up on higher volume and broadly shared gains Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick from dip at open, short upper wick after testing new high Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.18%), RUT (+1.15%), VIX (+1.79%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.67%) and Materials (XLB +0.59%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.57%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Momentum from the end of last week continued into Monday as markets open the week higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records. There are some signs that investors are rotating out of safe bets and buying up speculative positions ahead of earnings reports. The Nasdaq had a record-setting close, ending the with a +0.87% gain and fell just shy of setting a new all-time high price. Volume was higher and advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks, great bullish signals for the rally. The closing range of 89% comes after a small dip before close. A longer lower wick was created by a dip just after open before the bulls quickly took over. The S&P 500 also had a record-setting close, advancing +0.18%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes for a fourth day, gaining +1.15% as it attempts to climb back towards highs. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.18%. The VIX volatility index rose +1.79%. Energy (XLE +0.67%) and Materials (XLB +0.59%) were the top sectors of the day. Financials (XLF +0.40%) started the day in the lead, but faded thru the day. Utilities (XLU -0.57%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.12%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained flat with a +0.01% gain. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. Core Durable Goods orders for March indicate increased demand for commodities. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.492. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains just on the greed side of the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps gained today heading into earnings reports this week. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.04%, nearing the top of a three week base. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had smaller gains but are also tempting breakouts from recent bases. Investors are optimistic for positive earnings reports from these giants. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PayPal (PYPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list. Tesla (TSLA) also was near the top heading into an earnings report that beat but sent the stock back down after hours. Some of that may be jitters about safety issues domestically and controversy in China, but something a negative reaction to positive earnings is something to watch closely with other mega-cap earnings this week. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Walmart (WMT), Coca-Cola (KO), Pepsico (PEP) and Procter & Gamble (PG). These are the top four by cap in the consumer staples sector (XLP). Investors are rotating out of consumer staples and into riskier assets. It was another good day for the growth stock list with almost all the stocks tracked by the daily update having gains. At the top of the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), MongoDb (MDB), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and UP Fintech (TIGR). At the bottom of the list were Twitter (TWTR), JD.com (JD), SNAP (SNAP) and Etsy (ETSY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The House Price Index data on Tuesday will be interesting. It has been at its highest level since 2014. Higher prices are supposed to be bullish for the USD. Consumer Confidence data will be released just after market open. The API Weekly crude oil report will be released after close. Probably more important than the economic news will be the earnings reports. On Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Eli Lily (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), AMD (AMD), ABB (ABB), Pinterest (PINS), Enphase (ENPH), and FireEye (FEYE). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index neared the all-time high, stopped just short of it, but still set a record close. The one-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line results in a +0.43% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a -0.39% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The speculation ahead of earnings reports is a bit obvious in Monday's market movements. Rotations out of defensive plays and into growth sectors is coupled with a dip in the put/call ratio to an overly bullish level. Nonetheless, we have been waiting for a momentum signal of broad gains on higher volume. But investors should be careful since the market may be pricing in the positive earnings ahead of the actual reports. The first example is Tesla beat expectations, but its price is dropping after hours. Tesla's drop may be from other issues and not the earnings reports. But it could be that the market priced in the beat ahead of time and sold the news. If that continues throughout the week, it would be an ominous signal for big-tech and growth stocks. Keep a close eye on the earnings reports even if you don't own the stock. And definitely know when earnings reports are due for your portfolio to not be surprised. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/23 Summary: Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 23, 2021 Facts: +1.44%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 75% Good: Now lower wick, strong buying all morning Bad: Slight dip into close as the weekend arrives Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a longer upper wick from the dip at close Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+0.67%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-7.38%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. The Nasdaq gained +1.44% on lower volume than yesterday, but higher volume than earlier in the week. The 75% body is above a very tiny lower wick. The closing range of 78% is just below a longer upper wick that formed in the last 30 minutes of the session from selling into the weekend. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes for a third day, bucking the trend of lower performance the last few weeks. It gained +1.76% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +1.09% advance while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed up +0.67%. The VIX volatility index retreated -7.38%. Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were the only sectors with declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.49%. The sharp decline came as treasury bonds sold off. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. The commodities advance are after surprisingly strong economic data following a great jobs report yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.651. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward the greed side, but not at extreme greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remains about the same as last week at 95.6. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps gained today. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +2.10%, closing at a new all-time high. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.80%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.55%. Amazon (AMZN) held onto a +0.96% despite fading later in the session. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA) and Bank of America (BAC) led the mega-caps for the day, all with more than 2% gains. Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble) and Pepsico (PEP) were at the bottom of the list. Almost every stock in the daily update growth list had gains for the day. UP Fintech (TIGR) led the list with a +14.18% gain. Cloudflare (NET), SNAP (SNAP) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) round out the top four. MongoDb (MDB), Peloton (PTON) and Beyond Meat (BYND) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Core Durable Goods orders data for March. The data is a leading indicator showing increased manufacturing data to respond to higher consumer demand. The frequency of earnings reports will really start to pick up next week. Kicking off on Monday will be reports from Tesla (TSLA), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Canon (CAJ), Albertsons (ACI). Investors will be watching all earnings reports closely to measure sector performance in the economic recovery. Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to get back above the 14,000 area and hold that line even with the dip at close. The one-day trend line points to a +1.40% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.35% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.23% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The worries about higher capital gains tax was short lived. Biden has always said he would raise taxes and so those worries were likely already priced in. Today's rally easily erased yesterday's downward reversal from the sell the news event. The economic data this morning included higher Services and Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales data that exceeded even high expectations. Add that to the positive jobs data yesterday and it was enough to excite investors over the strong economy today. Still, investors will watch earnings reports closely next week to see what sectors are performing best in the recovery. Not only will earnings be compared to last year's pandemic numbers, but guidance for the next quarter and year will be watch closely. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/22 Summary: The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 22, 2021 Facts: -0.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 19%, Body: 55% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mid-day reversal on high volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Reversal candle, gap up with long upper wick, turning into a lower close Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.92%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (+6.91%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.94% decline on higher volume. The higher volume distribution starting at the 1pm news alert. The 94% red body is below a longer upper wick that formed from the morning rally before the news. The closing range is 19% and shows some recovery from the initial selling of the news. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied 1.25% in the morning before downturn. It ended the day with a -0.31% loss, fairing the best among the major indexes. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.92% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.94%, both giving up most of yesterday's gains. The VIX volatility index rose +6.91%. There was a sharp change in the sector performance list at the news. All sectors lost gains in the morning and ended the day with a loss. Growth sectors moved to the bottom along with Materials (XLB -1.69%) which has been outperforming the other sectors recently. Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.18%. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined for another day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.639. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is leaning toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.58%, Microsoft (MSFT) was down -1.31%, Apple (AAPL) declined -1.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.13%. They all still trade above the 21d EMA and bases are intact. AT&T (T) gained +4.15% after a great earnings report and didn't seem impacted by the afternoon swing (although it did close off intraday highs after morning profit taking). Abbot Labs (ABT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Mastercard (MA) were also at the top of the mega-cap list, but all with under 1% gains. Most mega-caps declined for the day with high-growth names such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) taking the worst hits. The growth stock list was not terribly impacted by the afternoon sell-off. About half of the daily update list closed the day with gains. Solar Edge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) topped the list with 7.69% and 3.74% gains. Crowdstrike (CRWD) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) also ended the day near the top of the list. At the bottom of the list were Draft Kings (DKNG), PENN Gaming (PENN), Grow Generation (GRWG) and Twitter (TWTR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be released. The data is an indicator for economic activity the respective sectors. New Home Sales data will also be released in the morning. Friday will close the week with earnings reports from Honeywell (HON) and American Express (AXP). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index popped above 14,000 in the morning before the afternoon downside reversal. It seemed to find support at around 13,800. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.50% gain for Friday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.14% decline. If today's one-day trend continues, it would mean a -1.37% loss for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The news that Biden may raise the capital gains tax was enough to send the market into a short panic today. Although the tax would be a ways off, it's likely investors would take gains in the current year under the current tax rules rather than wait for later years. That sell-off at the end of year is what the market will look to price in now. You saw it show up in the hit to growth sectors and high growth stocks, especially stocks that have big gains over the past year. But there's a good possibility that the market just overreacted today to some disappointing news. A good amount of money that is in the market is protected from tax since it comes in from retirement plans and passive indexes. To what degree that's true is what we'll find out as Biden's proposal makes it through the hurdles in its way and the market prices in the impact. The news was enough to bust our expectation for Higher today and rethink where things might head for tomorrow. Based on the candlesticks, we have to observe the a downside reversal and expectation for lower tomorrow. But the higher high and higher low opens up the possibility for sideways. Sideways or lower. Certainly, we'd welcome another expectation breaker and move higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/21 Summary: The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 21, 2021 Facts: +1.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 84% Good: Test of 21d EMA in morning then buying throughout the day, rally into close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long green body with no upper wick, small lower wick Advance/Decline: Five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.93%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+2.35%), VIX (-6.32%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC +0.17%) and Utilities (-0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. The Nasdaq finally had the advance/decline ratio above 1.0 after eight sessions in a row of more decliners than advancers. Along with great support from mega-caps, the index closed with a +1.19% gain and a closing range of 100%. The 84% green body is above a small lower wick formed from a dip at open. Otherwise, the bulls led the index higher through the whole day. There were over 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks. In a signal of rotation back into small-caps, the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes after underperforming for several sessions. But the rotation did not suck the wind out of the other segments, allowing gains to be broadly shared. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) both had gains of +0.93%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.32% after two days of big advances. Cyclical sectors topped to the sector list for the day, but did not leave behind growth sectors. Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Utilities (-0.84%) was the only sector to decline, reversing the defensive trades of the previous two days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.10% and may be in the early part of a base at the current level. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y note yields remained about even. The 2y treasury note yields rose slightly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Commodities were mostly bullish for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined on higher than expected crude oil supply numbers. Timber (WOOD) declines but is still near extraordinary highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call dropped to 0.548. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is leaning toward the green side, but not near extreme. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps certainly helped with the gains today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.90% and +0.82%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.29%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.03% but found support late in the session after a morning decline. ASML Holding (ASML) and Roche Holding (RHHBF) topped the mega-cap list with +6.25% and +4.64%. I don't usually include Roche in the daily update as its traded in OTC, but the earnings surprises of these two giants influenced European markets and likewise influenced sentiment in the US major indexes. Tesla (TSLA) and Nike (NKE) round out the top four mega-caps. There were more winners than losers in the mega-caps. Netflix (NFLX) dropped -7.40% after disappointing investors with subscriber growth. Oracle (ORCL) declined -3.26% because of a lost cloud deal with the Israel government. There wasn't much to complain about among growth stocks either. Lemonade (LMND) was the top winner with a +10.83% gain. Moderna (MRNA), GrowGeneration (GRWG), DraftKings (DKNG) also topped the list with over 5% gains. At the bottom of the list were communications stocks Facebook (FB) and SNAP (SNAP) with -0.39% and -0.32% declines. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) continued to decline, losing -2.64%, after announcing a secondary offer two days ago. Peloton is struggling with the fallout from reports and investigations of treadmill injuries and one death, declined -6.17% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update to Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home sales. Earnings updates will include Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), and DR Horton (DHI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at the 13,700 area again today, before rallying the rest of the day and closing just below 14,000. If today's trend continues, the one-day trend line points to a +0.90% gain for tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +0.31% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.53% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've been watching the advance/decline ratio over that past week and a half, looking for a day where the advancing stocks outnumbered the declining stocks. Now that we have the signal, the attention turns to volume. Volume declined over the last three sessions, including a large decline today as the index pivoted upward. Ideally we will see everything come together in the next session. A move higher, with broadly shared gains, on higher volume. The expectation is set for Higher. If the index moves lower, that will be a signal the last few weeks rally is losing support. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/20 Summary: The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 20, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume lower, Closing range: 38%, Body: 47% Good: Support at 21d EMA and 13,700 area Bad: Closing range from morning sell-off Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.68%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-1.96%), VIX (+8.00%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. The Nasdaq closed down -0.92% on lower volume with a closing range of 38%. That closing range came after heavy morning selling, a bounce off the 21d EMA and a few tests of the 13,700 area. The index find support there and rallied a bit into close to finish with a thick red 47% red body over a longer lower wick. There were almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the losses for the major indexes with a -1.96% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.68% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.75%. The VIX volatility index gained another +6.40%. Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.55%) and Health Services (XLV +0.39%) were the only other gaining sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.13%. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for the day. The yield curve continues to flatten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) was flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined on news that demand would retreat later in the year. Copper (COPPER1!) was flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio remained at 0.679. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the greed side, despite the pullbacks in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.28%, Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.11%, Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.47%, and Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.19%. All bases are still intact and these mega-caps are trading well above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) topped the mega-cap list with UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Walmart (WMT) filling out the top four mega-cap performers. At the bottom of the list are Nike (NKE), Abbott Labs (ABT), Bank of America (BAC) and Walt Disney (DIS). It was another tough day for growth stocks with only a handful in the daily update list advancing for the day. Enphase (ENPH) climbed 4.15% after getting analyst upgrades today. Other top growth stock gainers were Tesla (TSLA), NIO (NIO) and Facebook (FB), but the gains were not huge. FUTU (FUTU) followed up yesterday's big gain with a huge loss of -23.43% after the company announced a secondary issue of stock. UP Fintech (TIGR) also lost -14.10% for the day. SUMO Logic (SUMO) and DataDog (DDOG) were other growth stock losers for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday, additional crude oil inventory data will be released in the morning. A 20y treasury bond auction will happen in the afternoon. On Wednesday, Roche Holding (RHBY), Verizon (VZ), Chipotle (CMG) will release earnings updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at the 13,700 area today and ended with a short rally. The index is in the lower half of the regression trend channel from the 3/5 low. The midline points to +1.39% gain, just below 14,000. The five-day trend line points to a -0.03% sideways move. The one-day trend line points to a -1.31% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've gone eight days on the Nasdaq where there are more declining stocks than advancing stocks. It's clear the influence is still in the mega-caps. They are extended after a couple weeks of big gains, and may take some more time to form second stage bases and move up again. More broadly, there is no indication that investor sentiment will change and end the pullback in small caps and growth stocks. Perhaps some earnings reports or economic news later this week can help (or hurt). For many of the growth stocks I follow, it doesn't feel they could go much lower. But then again, it didn't feel they could go any lower last week either. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/19 Summary: After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 19, 2021 Facts: -0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 35% Good: Afternoon support after hitting 13,850 Bad: Lower high, lower low, back below 14,000 line Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Body in the middle of candle, about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+6.40%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. The Nasdaq declined -0.98% on lower volume for the day. The upper wick formed in the first 15 minutes of trading, The declines came mostly in the morning, forming the lower wick. The candle finished the day with a 36% closing range at the bottom of a red 35% body in the center of the candle. There were almost 4 declining stocks for every one advancing stock on a day of lower highs and lower lows. All four major indexes tracked in the daily update declined for the day with the small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) having the worst performance, losing -1.36% and dropping back to the bottom of a two week base. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.53%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.36%. The VIX volatility index dropped another +6.40%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Communications (XLC -0.56%) joined the latter two as the three sectors that underperformed the S&P 500 index. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward trend with a -0.58% decline today. The US 30y treasury bond and the US 10y treasury note yield advanced while the 2y note yield declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) remained about flat after Friday's huge gain. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day higher at 0.679. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the greed side, despite the pullbacks in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both gained for the day while Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) declined. They all are still trading within a forming base after multiple weeks of gains. Moving average lines look good and they seem to be building support for a move higher. Netflix (NFLX) topped the mega-cap list ahead of tomorrow's earnings release. Pfizer (PFE), Coca-Cola (KO) and Apple (AAPL) round out the top four. At the bottom of the list are ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA). That majority of mega-caps declined for the day. The same was true for growth stocks, with most in the daily update list declining. Top gainers included FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR), NIO (NIO) and RH (RH). Those names look familiar as I noted they swung between the top and the bottom of the list on a daily basis last week. At the bottom of the growth list today are Chewy (CHWY), PENN National gaming (PENN), Peloton (PTON), and Ehang Holdings (EH), all with more than 6% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday's economic calendar is light. The API weekly crude oil stock update will come at market close. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) will both release earnings on Tuesday. They will be joined by Netflix (NFLX), Abbot Labs (ABT), Philip Morris (PM) and Lockheed Martin (LMT). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dropped back below the 14,000 line. We want to see it get back above that point and stay above it to work toward new all-time highs. The five-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain, above 14,000. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to +0.40% gain, just below 14,000. The one-day trend line points to a -0.88% decline, if today's selling continues. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The pullback today shouldn't be a huge surprise as the mega-caps and the major indexes are making big weekly gains and investors are likely wanting to protect some profits. There has not been broad support across the index with the advance/decline line remaining under 1.0 for a seventh session in a row. Some of this could also be from jitters in the market that some of the crazy retail volatility is still lurking. You can see this from the Dogecoin frenzy over the weekend. Stocks like AMC and GME still continue to hold high valuations compared to where analysts would price them, but other popular stocks with retail investors are losing steam. As retail investors tire of losses, they'll add to the selling. Looking forward, I would think we'd still see some sideways movement or even more pullback. To really see the index reach new highs, we'll need more juice from the mega-caps and also more broadly shared advances across segments. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/16 Summary: The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. Notes The private indicator I use to draw the large candles on the Daily Market Update chart is not working today (you can see the issue looking at previous daily updates). TV identified the issue and is working on it. Until its fixed, I'll include just the daily summary data at the top of the chart and include an additional daily candlestick chart in the report below. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 16, 2021 Facts: +0.10%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high after early selling turns to late buying Bad: Red body, morning sell-off, slight dip at end of session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick with a thin body at the top of the candle Advance/Decline: More than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (+0.48%), RUT (+0.25%), VIX (-1.93%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.21%), Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indexes set more records on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at new all-time highs again. That gains initially came at open after positive building data drove the materials sector to the top of the sector list. It was not a straight line. The market dipped in the morning and the indexes needed to climb back to close near intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with +0.10%, above yesterday's close but slightly below the opening price. The bears took over shortly after open, bringing the index nearly to yesterday's low. But the bears fought back and bought it back to make an intraday high before dipping into close. The long lower wick was formed in the morning selling. The thing 8% body is at the top of the candle which has an 88% closing range. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.48% a bit below the 0.64% it gained in the first 10 minutes of the session. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.36%. Both closed a new all-time highs. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to slowly work itself out of a base with a +0.25% advance today. The VIX volatility index dropped another -1.93%. Materials (XLB +1.21%) was the top sector, gapping up at open on the positive building data. Utilities (XLU +0.81%) was the second best sector, signaling some caution from investors perhaps on lower than expected consumer data or protecting against the volatility of a big options expiration day. Communications (XLC -0.07%) and Energy (XLE -0.80%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues its downward trend with a -0.14% decline today. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined while the US 10y and 2y note yields advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) both Gold (GOLD) advanced . Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.567. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) continued its breakout, setting another new all-time high with a +0.48% advance. Amazon (AMZN) also advanced, gaining +0.60% and regaining ground from a pullback earlier in the week. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.25% and -0.11% but the base within their uptrends remain intact. Pfizer (PFE), Cisco (CSCO), Comcast (CMCSA), and Home Depot (HD) topped the mega-cap list today. Most mega-caps faired pretty well for the day. At the bottom of the list are PayPal (PYPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Facebook (FB). It was a different story for growth stocks. There were some winners with Moderna (MRNA), Dr Horton (DHI), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and RH (RH) topping the daily update list. However, there were more losers than winners and some of the losses were a surprise. Pinterest (PINS) dropped nearly 10% on news that an analyst is forecasting a deceleration in omnichannel spending from retailers. DataDog (DDOG) and Fiverr (FVRR) gave up recent gains with 5% declines today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The only thing on the economic calendar for Monday is a short-term treasury bill auction. It's not likely to impact outlook on bonds or equities. Coca-Cola (KO) will kick-off the week with a premarket earnings release. After market close, IBM (IBM), United Airlines (UAL), and Steel Dynamics (STLD) could be important earnings reports to watch. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index testing the 14,000 support area in the morning. That was a spot for the bulls to come back in and start buying, helping the index to bounce of the line and make it back to a higher high before close. The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a +0.36% gain, moving the index slowly but surely toward a new all-time high. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.89% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been six trading days in a row that the advance/decline ratio is below 1.0 even as the index makes higher highs. Looking at the QQQ (weighted) index vs the QQQE (equal weight) index, the gains for the week are a bit more for the weighted index, but not that much higher. A closer look could tell, but likely what happened is the mega-caps kept moving up as lower cap stocks rotated throughout the week, keeping the daily A/D ratio low each day despite a broader gain on a weekly basis. What that means for the trend needs some more thought. Perhaps in the weekly update something will pop and provide some insight of where we can expect things to go next week. On the daily look, it seems the index has support and will continue to move up as economic activity continues picking up. For growth investors, it sure would be nice to have the gains be more broadly (and consistently) shared across the index. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/15 Summary: Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. Notes The private indicator I use to draw the large candles on the Daily Market Update chart is not working today (you can also see the issue looking at previous daily updates). Until its fixed, I'll include just the daily summary data at the top of the chart and include an additional daily candlestick chart in the report below. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 15, 2021 Facts: +1.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 87%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.11%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.42%), VIX (-2.47%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive economic data gave a kick in the right direction to equity markets, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average to close again at all-time highs. The day was owned by the bulls with just a few pullbacks, but still the gains were not felt by everyone, with more stocks declining than advancing. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.31% gain on higher volume. The candle, made up of mostly a green body, has a closing range of 87% about even upper and lower wicks. A higher high and higher low provides direction to the previous days outside range. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1.31% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.11%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had gains for the day, advancing 0.42%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.47%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.90%) and Technology (XLK +1.72%) were top. Financial (XLF -0.09%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) were the only losing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.04%. The US 30y treasury bond yield, and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) advanced for the day. The High Yield bond prices made a move upward after basing for a few weeks. Silver (SILVER) both Gold (GOLD) advanced . Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.571. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area, moving just a bit to the greed side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 96.57. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four big mega-caps all gained for the day after pulling back yesterday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed at new all-time highs. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are continuing breakouts but have a ways to go to new all-time highs. Nvidia (NVDA), UnitedHealth (UNH), PayPal (PYPL) and Adobe (ADBE) topped the mega-cap list with gains of +2.5% and higher. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Walt Disney (DIS) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Growth stocks were mixed with Okta (OKTA), CloudFlare (NET), ROKU (ROKU) and MongoDB (MDB) topping the list with over 3% gains. At the bottom of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), UP Fintech (TIGER), Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG). DELL Technologies (DELL) rose +6.71% on news that they will spin-off VMWare (VMW). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released on Friday morning. We will also get an update on Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment. Friday's earnings reports include Honeywell (HON) and Morgan Stanley (MS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to rise above the 14,000 line, staying above the line even after a couple afternoon tests of the line. The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a +0.24% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.13% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Positive economic news in the morning was enough to lift the indexes, but not enough to see gains shared broadly across the market. The gain on higher volume is a positive, but it would be good to see the Advance/Decline number be above 1.0. As the index inches toward a new all-time high, we can expect a bit more rotation as investors take profits and chase gains in other stocks. Trying to find those opportunities, rotating your own investments, can be tricky. So as always, its best to stick to the rules that work for you and your trading style, sticking with the stocks that are working for you. That message is for me too. I've been burned by breaking rules too many times already in 2021. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/14 Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 14, 2021 Facts: -0.99%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, pullback is on lower volume Bad: Selling almost entire day, couldn't hold above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, candle is mostly body with a longer upper wick from a rally at open Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.41%), DJI (+0.16%), RUT (+0.84%), VIX (+2.04%) Sectors: Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were top. Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The cyclicals moved back to the top of the sector list as investors were motivated by positive import/export data and crude oil inventories. The data provided a good reason for investors to rotate back into the cyclical sectors after chasing gains in big tech over the past few weeks. The Nasdaq pulled back from recent gains, closing the day with a -0.99% decline on lower volume. The 75% red body represents a day for the bears that ended in a 10% closing range. The index set a higher high in the morning but ended the day with a lower low, providing an outside bearish candle. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.41% for the day after setting a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) also set a new all-time high and closed the day with a +0.16% gain, but the close was well below the intraday high. The Russell 2000 (RUT) preformed the best for the day with a +0.84% gain, but also closed below intraday highs. The VIX volatility index gained +2.04%. Cyclical stocks were at the top o fthe sector list. Energy (+2.78%) and Materials (+0.72%) were the best performing. Energy was driven to the top by higher than expected demand for crude oil. Financials (+0.60%) also performed well, helped by earnings beats by big finance companies announced before market open. The big growth sectors of Communications (-1.03%) and Technology (XLK -1.06%) that drove recent gains, were at the bottom of today's sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21%. The US 30y treasury bond yield, and US 10y and 2y note yields all gained for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) had a huge advance after data showed a surprisingly level of demand. Timber (WOOD) advanced slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. The outlook for economic activity, showing by the positive import/export data, is driving these prices higher along with the cyclical sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.566. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area, moving just a bit to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. I've been mentioning how extended they've gotten over the past two weeks, so a pullback is not a surprise, nor is it bad thing. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.79% but finally had its 21d EMA cross above the 50d MA, further confirming an uptrend for the stock. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.12%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.97%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.56%. Alphabet was already developing a based and may be the first to make the next breakout higher. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the mega-cap list, driving the Energy sector performance for the day. PetroChina (PTR) and Bank of America (BAC) were also near the top. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), PayPal (PYPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and Neftlix (NFLX). The majority of the growth stock list had declines for the day. The biggest gainers in our list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Moderna (MRNA), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Fastly (FSLY). GrowGeneration (GRWG), Palantir (PLTR), Square (SQ) and Digital Turbine (APPS) were the biggest losers with more than 5% declines. Investor's attention was on the Coinbase (COIN) debut today with a 40% swing in prices from lows to highs and a close that was 23% below the intraday high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday has several economic data releases. Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens will hopefully recover a bit from last week's negative surprise. Retail Sales data for March should show an improvement over the February numbers that were brought down by weather events. The Manufacturing Index data and Industrial Production data will also be leading indicators on the recovery of economic activity. The Financial sector earnings reports will include Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Charles Schwab (SCHW) and BlackRock (BLK). Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be closely watched earnings reports for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index popped above the 14,000 line briefly today before selling off the rest of the day. That type of round-number resistance is not unexpected as investors tend to place conditional rules at round numbers. The five-day trend line points to a +1.30% gain for Thursday, back above 14,000. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.33% as the index regresses back to the center line. The one-day trend line points to a -1.25% loss tomorrow which would leave the index around the 13,700 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up In the previous few updates, we recognized that the big tech and mega-cap names that were driving gains were also getting quite extended. As rotations go, investors took profits and moved them into the next opportunity for some gains which is the cyclicals and recovery stocks. There is still some room for the mega-caps to pause and let moving average lines catch up with the recent gains. The expectation is for sideways or lower for tomorrow, but gains across a much broader set of stocks in the Nasdaq would be very welcome and healthy for the current bull market. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/13 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 13, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 89% (w/gap) Good: Higher high, higher low, large green body and high closing range Bad: Small dip at end of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a small upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (-0.22%), VIX (-1.54%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.06%) were top. Consumer Staples (-0.53%) and Finance (-0.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Bigger than expected inflation didn't hold back the markets from setting new records today. The S&P 500 set another new record close while the Nasdaq inches toward key support levels. The gains were driven mostly by large mega-caps and not shared broadly across the indexes. The Nasdaq advanced +1.05% for the day and closed just below the 14,000 resistance line. The candle has no lower wick as the intraday low was set at the opening bell. The thick green 86% body led the index to a 89% closing range (including the gap) with the intraday high being set late in the afternoon. The advance was driven by larger cap stocks, as there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.33%, closing just below a new all-time high set intraday. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.20%, weighed down by cyclical sectors. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to underperform the other indexes with a -0.22% decline today. The VIX volatility index declined -1.54%. Utilities (XLU +1.19%) was the top sector, signaling caution among investors despite the gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.06%) and Technology (XLK +0.94%) were the second and third best sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.53%) and Finance (XLF -0.33%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.28%. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined after a strong auction of the bond today. US 10y and 2y note yields also declined for the day. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) remained flat near its highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.521. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) had a +2.43% and nearly got the 21d EMA line above the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) continues setting new all-time highs with a +1.01% advance. Amazon (AMZN) held onto a +0.61% gain after advancing more than 1.5% intraday. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed the day with a +0.56% advance. Tesla (TSLA) was the big mega-cap winner of the day with a big +8.60% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) and PayPal (PYPL) join Apple to fill out the top four. At the bottom of the list are consumer staples Procter & Gamble (PG) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) along with big finance JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). Nike was the worst performing mega-cap with over a 2% decline. The growth stock list had a decent day with CloudFlare (NET) topping the list, closing the day with a 11.30% gain. Palantir (PLTR), SUMO Logic (SUMO) and Moderna (MRNA) had gains of over 7%. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) were at the bottom of the list with over 2% declines. Zoom Video (ZM) also had a big gain for the day perhaps on fears of the vaccine concerns (now including Johnson & Johnson) slowing down the return to work. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news for Wednesday includes Export/Import Price index data before markets open. Crude Oil Inventory data will be released after the market opens. JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) will get earnings season going for big finance with reports on Wednesday. In addition, retail stocks Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is just under the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. With big tech stocks extended above bases, we may need one more pull back before this breakthrough. The one-day trend line points to a +0.39% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a sideways move. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.73% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It may seem that inflation data was ignored in the equities markets, with the Nasdaq having a gain and the S&P 500 hitting a record high. However, the gains in the market were driven by large mega-caps and not broadly shared across the indexes. After the inflation data was released the US dollar weakened further. The weakening of the US dollar will positively impact valuations of large multinational companies. Exports become cheaper, boosting revenues in foreign subsidiaries. When those revenues are repatriated for reporting, they are also worth more translated back into the USD. On the other hand, domestic companies are more likely to be impacted by inflation and the weakening dollar as imports become more expensive. Not all the expense can be passed onto the consumer, so margins will be reduced while the companies balance higher prices with the impact to demand. The high inflation is expected to be transitionary and should come back down later in the year after lagging supply catches up with the accelerated demand caused by consumers getting back out shopping, spending savings, stimulus checks and credit. The high demand is seen in the huge surprise export data from China. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/12 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 12, 2021 Facts: -0.36%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: -5% Good: Higher low than previous day, high closing range Bad: Distribution day, lower high, loss on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thin red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (-0.16%), VIX (+1.32%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After several days of big gains, its ok for the markets to take a pause. Morning selling turned into buying as treasury auctions showed little trouble and yields remained under control. But the confidence wasn't enough to hold the indexes near intraday highs as investors turned their attention to inflation data becoming available Tuesday morning. The Nasdaq closed the session with a -0.36% decline on higher volume, marking a distribution day for the index. The thin red body of 5% represents indecision between the good news on treasury auctions, but the potential for bad news in inflation data. The positive is that the body is in the upper half of the candle with a high closing range of 71%, showing a slightly more bullishness in the market. There were 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.02%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.16%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to underperform the other indexes with a -0.43% decline today. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.32%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.59%) were top performing sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -0.48%) and Energy (XLE -0.79%) were bottom. Energy opened the day at the top of the sector list, but quickly moved to the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.11%. The US 30y treasury bond yield remained flat while the and 10y treasury note yield advanced. The shorter term 2y note yield advanced, helping bring down the spread between short term and long term. Prices on both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) declined for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.596. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the big four mega-caps, Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) were able to hold onto gains for the day despite closing below intraday highs. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both declined. All four are trading above key moving average lines. Apple is getting close to getting the 21d EMA to cross above the 50d MA. The accelerated gains for the big four this past week results in their prices getting extended and some pullback or pause may be in order. That may mean another day or two of pause in the indexes as well. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list despite being fined a record amount by the Chinese government over the weekend. The company stated the fine will have little impact to the company and investors must be relieved that the outcome wasn't worse. Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA) and Pfizer (PFE) fill out the remaining top four mega-caps for the day. In addition to Apple and Alphabet, the big mega-cap losers for the day included Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC). The mega-caps topped the growth stock list as well. Just below them in the list were Snowflake (SNOW), MongoDb (MDB), Okta (OKTA) and DataDog (DDOG). At the bottom of the growth list were FUTU Holdings (FUTU), DraftKings (DKNG), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index data for March being released before market open on Tuesday. The data compliments the produce price index data released this past week. The produce price index data is leading indicator to consumer price index data, both providing an outlook on inflation. Investors are fearful of inflation bringing an end to lower interest rates. Earnings reports will start to pick up this week, but there are no notable earnings for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is inching toward the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day trend line points to a +0.37% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.06% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.09% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an indecisive day as investors await inflation data and key earnings reports from big finance this week. For inflation, it seems investors are fearing the worst. That could be a good thing if the data is not quite as frightful as feared. Last week, the Nasdaq climbed +3.12% while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average set new all-time highs. So it should not come as a huge surprise that the market takes a breather, especially as more economic data is on its way. In fact, we may see a little more pullback or sideways action before the Nasdaq marches toward new all-time highs for itself. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/9 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 9, 2021 Facts: +0.51%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: +72% Good: Never revisited morning low, bullish buying rest of the day Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day candle with short lower wick, almost no upper wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The morning producer price index numbers are a great sign for the economy as demand increases in manufactured goods indicates consumer demand. It's not a great sign if you are worried about inflation. The markets opened with a dip on the news, but quickly recovered as the dollar pulled back from the morning reaction to the news. The Nasdaq closed the day with a rally to gain +0.51% with a closing range of 97%. Volume was lower but buyers were present throughout the day, leading to a 72% green body over a small lower wick from the morning dip. The higher high and lower low, with a high closing range, create a bullish outside candle. The day was dominated by industrials and mega-caps as the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed at a new all-time high with a +0.89% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) also set a record close after a +0.77% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did not do as well but still was able to squeak out a gain of +0.04%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.53%, continuing to move lower into its pre-pandemic trading range. Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. The sectors don't hold any big surprises except Energy which rose to the top of the list just after market open and quickly sank to the bottom by mid-day as the outlook for demand vs supply was mixed among investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.12% but was well off intraday highs driven by the inflation outlook. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined slightly. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Nothing alarming in the commodities. Oil was choppy intraday as analysts tried to figure out the supply and demand outlook. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.588. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps continue to rise. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.02% and Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.21%. Both are moving toward their 21d EMA crossing above the 50d MA to solidify the uptrend. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) already met that milestone and gained +1.03% and 0.90% for the day. United Health (UNH) topped the mega-cap list helping the Health services sector lead for the day. Salesforce.com (CRM), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) round out the top performing mega-caps. As the bottom of the list were Alibaba (BABA), Comcast (CMCSA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Tesla (TSLA). Moderna (MRNA) topped the growth stock list that is about half-and-half gainers and losers. UP Fintech (TIGR), Chewy (CHWY) and Palantir (PLTR) also were at the top of the list. Peloton (PTON), Beyond Meat (BYND), Snowflake (SNOW) and Zoom Video (ZM) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick-off next week with a 10-year Treasury Note Auction in the afternoon. Earnings reports will start to pick up next week, but there are no notable earnings for the daily update on Monday or Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is inching toward the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a +0.34% gain on Monday. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.91% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The day was for the large/mega caps and industrials. Some mid-cap growth stocks also did well. The Russell 2000 and small-caps seemed to give back are consolidating in a bullish symmetric triangle. We can expect the index to eventually breakout and join the other indexes if the market continues upward. I'm confident it will follow the market trend, but the question will be at what pace. The small cap index was on a tear from September to March, outperforming everything, but pulled back with the recent rotations. Will it pick back up the previous pace or will it underperform the other indexes. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/8 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (24d), 4/1 (5d) and today 4/8 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 8, 2021 Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: +45% Good: Gains all-day with few pullbacks, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick under a green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: Three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shook off early nervousness over higher jobless claims and bulls led the markets rally throughout the day. Treasury yields, the US Dollar and commodity prices all supported Technology as the leading sector of the day, carrying the Nasdaq to the leading index of the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The 99% closing range resulted from a 45% green body at the top of the candle which opened with a gap above yesterday's close. The lower wick was formed in the morning, but the index quickly erased the dip with gains into the afternoon that ended with a rally at close. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied after a few days of declines and ended the day with a +0.88% gain. The S&P 500 advanced +0.42% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed with a +0.17% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -1.22% and is now well within the pre-pandemic range of highs and lows. Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top sectors for the day. Utilities (XLU -0.08%) opened with gains in the morning but faded to near the bottom of the list by the end of the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were the worst performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.38% continues to retreat from a pivot high at the end of March. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all declined. The yield curve continued its trend of flattening. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. All are showing strong demand and bullish for the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.592. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 89.95 from 52.02 the previous week. The index, released on Wednesday evenings represents the amount of exposure in active investment managers portfolios. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for another day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +1.92% and +1.34%, helping carry the indexes into close. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.61% and +0.51%, but closed in the lower half of the intraday range. We are still anticipating the crossover of the 21d EMA over the 50d MA for Apple and Amazon which will signal a confident uptrend. Microsoft and Alphabet have already met that milestone. PayPal (PYPL +3.48%), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +2.95%), ASML Holding (ASML +2.13%), Tesla (TSLA +1.91%) were at the top of the mega-cap list. Big communications companies Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) joined Nike (NIKE) at the bottom of the list, all with over 2% declines. Today was much better for growth stocks than the previous day, with the majority of growth in the daily update list having gains. UP Fintech (TIGR), GrowGeneration (GRWG), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list with over 10% gains each. Draft Kings (DKNG) and Dr Horton (DHI) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday, the producer price index data will be released that gives a view into inflation. Expect the US dollar and Treasury Yields to be impacted if the number is far off forecast. There are no notable earnings reports for Thursday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is nearing the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day trend line points to a +1.16% gain on Friday. The one-day trend line points to a small gain of +0.16%. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.85% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Everything lined up nicely for big tech and growth stocks today. Yields dropped back as the yield curve continues to flatten. The US dollar weakened, benefiting big multinational companies. Commodities show high demand indicating economic activity picking back up. Eyes will be on the produce price index data tomorrow before market opens. Higher prices would indicate more demand for products as a result of increased spending, but it may also make investors nervous about inflation. Still, Jerome Powell held firm today that inflation was unlikely, so investors will have to balance their worries with assurances from the Fed that changes in economic policy are still long off in the future. Don't fight the fed. The resurgence of growth stocks continues to accelerate relative to value stocks. The gains were broad across the category today. Many of the charts for growth have a long way to go to get past overhead supply and reach new all-time highs. Value stocks have leveled off for the past few weeks, could be basing and may have some more growth of their own. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/7 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (23d), 3/31 (5d) and today 4/7 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 7, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 44%, Body: +17% Good: Stayed near 13,700 support, lower volume, not a distribution day Bad: Indecisive candle, no signal on direction Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (-5.30%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a choppy side-ways session today for most of the market. The small caps suffered compared to the larger caps while mid-cap growth stocks had mixed results. Overall, investor sentiment remained cautious without many big reactions to economic news. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.07% decline, another indecisive day without a clear signal on direction. The 17% body is in the lower half of the candle as the index attempted to find a rally twice but reversed quickly back to the 13,700 area. The closing range of 44% is better than the previous day, but the lower higher and lower low show the bears put up a good fight. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a +0.15% gain while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.05%. Both indexes were helped by mega-caps. The small caps didn’t fare so well. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.60% in a bearish day for the sector. The VIX volatility index declined +5.30% and closed at its lowest point since before the pandemic. Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) led the sector list. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were at the bottom. Utilities (XLU -0.12%) retreated from the top of the list yesterday, signaling a bit more confidence among investors despite the subdued results in the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.29% but did not seem to be impacted by the morning change in sentiment. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both advanced for the day while 2y note yield declined. The yield curve steepened, but is still in a flattening trend since the beginning of April. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined slightly for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained for a second day. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. All are still showing strong demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.589. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for the day and all four closed above the key moving average lines now that Apple (AAPL) finally closed above the 50d MA. The next milestone for these four will be to get the 21d EMA above the 50d MA showing a lasting trend after the dips in March. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are already there. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) still have the 21d EMA below the 50d MA but are starting to close the gap. Facebook (FB), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) are an interestingly diverse set of mega-caps to top the list for the day, representing four difference sectors. At the bottom of the list is Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Walt Disney (DIS). It was a challenging day for growth stocks as the majority of the daily update list had declines. SNAP (SNAP), Square (SQ), Twitter (TWTR) and PayPal (PYPL) topped the list, echoing the sector leaders. At the bottom of the list were yesterday's growth stock leaders including UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH). Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG) were also near the bottom despite getting a boost the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday brings the weekly Job Claims in the morning. At noon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak which will be watched closely and balanced against the FOMC Meeting Minutes from last month that were released today. There are no notable earnings reports for Thursday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still has support in the 13,600-13,700 area and stayed above it after two tests today. The five-day trend line points to a +1.89% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a sideways move tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.40% loss, which is just above the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Indecision. Investors eyes were on the FOMC Meeting Minutes but sentiment remained unchanged after they were released. It sent the same message we've been hearing from the Fed, including a strong commitment to economic recovery while pushing off any policy changes until substantial progress is made. In a surprise at the end of the day, consumer credit for February was much higher than expected showing economic stimulus starting to work toward getting consumers spending again. It seems that growth stocks are beginning to gain ground again compared to value stocks. Since the beginning of March, this chart that compares Growth to Value has pivoted from a sharp decline that started in August. It has not been an easy rotation. There is still a lot of back and forth with growth stocks, and new winners are being sought out. The churn is likely caused by the mass exit of retail investors from the market. Those investors were heavily leaning on growth stocks in 2020 and the beginning of 2021, but volume has dropped significantly as lock downs end and consumers find other things to spend money on. Keep an eye out for new opportunities as the 2021 winners begin to emerge. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Updated

Daily Market Update for 4/6 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (22d), 3/30 (5d) and today 4/6 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 6, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: +16% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support around 13,700 Bad: Long upper shadow from afternoon selling Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.10%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+1.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%) were top. Health Services (XLV -0.38%) and Technology (XLK -0.43%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was caution in the market on Tuesday after several days of record setting gains. Investors are monitoring the progress of infrastructure plans and the potential for new taxes. At the same time, the pandemic keeps popping up new fears as Canada declares a very serious third wave. The Nasdaq closed with a small -0.05% loss, after climbing 0.5% in the morning. The closing range of 24% is above a thin 16% body signaling indecision. The long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that sold off in the afternoon. Still, the index seemed to have support around the 13,700 area, testing the area twice and settling just below the line at the close. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. The S&P 500 closed the day with a -0.10% after setting another all-time high in the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both delivered inside days (lower high, higher low) with -0.29% and -0.25% declines. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.17%. The sectors show a clear shift in investor sentiment about an hour after open. Energy was leading the sector list in the morning before a downgrade of Chevron by Goldman Sachs. The downgrade doesn't explain it all as Exxon Mobil and oil prices also came down from morning highs. The other signal of investor nervousness was the shift of Utilities (XLU) from the bottom sector in the morning to the top sector at close. The only other sector that seemed to react to the change in sentiment was Financials (XLF) likely as investors bought up treasuries and brought long term yields down. Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ended the day at the top sector list. Health Services (XLV) and Technology (XLK) ended the day at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.29% but did not seem to be impacted by the morning change in sentiment. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both declined for the day while 2y note yields rose. The yield curve continues to flatten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced and continue in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) ended the day with gains, despite pulling back from morning highs. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. All are still showing strong demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.523. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Among the big four mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) ended the day with gains. However the declines across the other three were not enough to invalidate breakouts. With the big gains over the previous three sessions, there should be no surprise for prices to pause here. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are all trading above both key moving average lines (the 21d EMA and 50d MA). Apple hit resistance at the 50d MA and closed below the line. Alibaba (BABA), Nike (NIKE) and AT&T (T) were some of the top mega-cap gainers for the day. At the bottom were Intel (INTC), United Health (UNH), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML). Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains for the day. Top winners were ROKU (ROKU), UP Fintech (TIGR), Ehang Holdings (EH) and DataDog (DDOG). Investors still seem a bit uncertain which of these growth names will benefit with the economic recovery as they still chop back and forth regularly. For example Zynga (ZNGA) was near the top of the list yesterday, and at the bottom of the list today. DataDog at the bottom of the list yesterday and near the top today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. First employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. There are no notable earnings reports for Wednesday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still has support in the 13,600-13,700 area and stayed above it after two tests today. The five-day trend line points to a +2.10% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a sideways move tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.90% loss, which is just above the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors showed some nervousness today mid-morning, changing momentum in the market for several sectors. Despite the switch in sentiment, key areas of support held and we could view the day's result as a pause during a fairly aggressive uptrend the past few days. Still, the candle itself has that appearance of a shooting star that signals the end of an uptrend. So it could be things need to move sideways a bit here or even pull back once more before proceeding. With the overall economic situation continuing to approve, more upside seems in the future, but only the market can tell us when it will happen. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/5 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (21d), 3/29 (5d) and today 4/5 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 5, 2021 Facts: +1.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 94% (w/Gap), Body: +80% Good: Three positive days in a row, above 13,700 confirmed with a quick retest Bad: Lowering volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, mostly green body with a slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: About the same number of advancing as declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+1.44%), DJI (+1.13%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.35%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) and Communications (XLC +2.11%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only declining sector. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets set new records on Monday led by gains from the largest public companies in Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Technology. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial marked new all-time highs with a bullish session that began the day with opening gap ups. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.67% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 94% includes the morning gap-up that led to an 80% green body. A minor fade in the afternoon created a slightly longer upper wick than the lower wick but the higher high and higher low continue a strong uptrend from last week's pivot. There were about the same number of gaining stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.44% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.13%. Small caps also had gains, but not quite as strong as the large and mega-caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gains +0.49%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.35%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) , Communications (XLC +2.11%) and Technology (XLK +2.07%) are all worth mentioning as the top sectors. They were the three to outperform the SPX which means they were also responsible for much of the gains in the broader index. All three were led higher by at least one of the top ten mega-caps. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only losing sector of the day due to a drop in crude oil prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.47% adding support to large multi-nationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose slightly for the day, but seem under control. 2y notes yields rose a bit more and narrowed the spread between short and long term. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Both are in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined slightly but seem to have support. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined as OPEC decided to increase production but then the pandemic seems to be worsening in Europe. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) remained flat. The soaring commodity prices show recovering demand in the economy, but could also be sign of coming inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.501. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved more toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps produced some eye-popping charts today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) broke out into new all-time highs with +2.77% and +4.19% gains. Both are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMAZN) gained +2.08% and moved back above the 50d MA, and trades above both lines as well. Apple (AAPL) gained a respectable +2.36%, but still has some work to do to get above the 50d MA. Tesla (TSLA) found its way to the top of the mega-cap list after announcing record production and deliveries for the last quarter. Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Facebook (FB) and Alphabet all have gains of over 3% helping their respective sectors lead for the day. At the bottom of the list is Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobile (XOM). The growth stock list is a bit harder to decipher. Results are mixed and overall lean toward losses. Outside of Tesla and Facebook topping the list, Pinterest (PINS), Dr Horton (DHI) and Zynga (ZNGA) had leading gains for the day. However, a good number of growth stocks had more than 2% losses for the day with Enphase (ENPH), Etsy (ETSY) , Solar Edge (SEDG) and DataDog (DDOG) leading the declines with more than 4% losses. As the market turns toward a new rally, expect investors to be figuring out who the new winners and losers will be in the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be released just after market open. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be updated after market close. There are no notable earnings reports for Tuesday except maybe PAYX that could confirm a positive outlook for the labor market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 13,600-13,700 support area and stayed above despite a quick retest. If the one-day trend continues, we can expect a +1.64% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.57% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -2.62% loss, which is below the 50d MA and just above the 21d EMA. There are some gaps to fill in the last few session opens, so it would not be a big surprise to revisit these areas. However, there is support at the 13,700 line and the 50d MA which could help reverse any dips. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Big tech showed up again last Wednesday afternoon but faded into close. It can back with a vengeance on Thursday and now is proving they are here to stay. Having Microsoft and Alphabet clear new all-time highs is a positive. There's no overhead supply for them to contend with for further gains. On the other hand, there are plenty of other mega-caps and growth stocks alike that need to claw their way back to all-time highs. The overhead supply, investors holding since prior to the dips, will cause some resistance as the sell on the way back up. The final characteristic from today is in deciphering investor sentiment for growth stocks. Some of the stocks that seemed poised to recover quickly pulled back again today despite the broader gains. Investors must be deciding which companies are the most likely to benefit from the recovering economy and new infrastructure proposals being debated in congress. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 4/01 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (20d), 3/26 (5d) and today 4/1 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 1, 2021 Facts: +1.76%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96% (w/ Gap), Body: +79% Good: Rally above and stayed above 50d MA Bad: Flat after initial rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, Mostly green body with barely visible upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.18%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+1.50%), VIX (-10.67%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.55%) and Technology (XLK +2.01%) were top. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Hello April and Q2! The Nasdaq leapt into the new month and quarter with a gap up and rise above the 50d moving average while the S&P 5000 closed over 4000 for the first time in history. Solid breakouts from big tech and a breadth of gains across indexes and sectors helped put strength behind the moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.76% gain on lower volume. The 96% closing range includes the gap and represents a quick rise in the morning that leveled off but never gave back the gains. The 79% body includes a few tests of the 50d MA in intraday trading, but support held. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) set a milestone, advancing +1.18%, to close above 4000 for the first time ever. The Russell 2000 (RUT) put in its third day of gains with a +1.50% advance. The Dow Joins Industrial (DJI) average climbed +0.52%. The VIX volatility index declined -10.67% to close at its lowest point since before the pandemic. Energy (XLE +2.55%) topped the sector list as crude oil prices spiked on better than expected inventory data for Crude and Gasoline, demonstrating high demand. Technology (XLK +2.01%) also topped the sector list, boosted by big tech gains from Microsoft and Apple and generally great performance across the entire sector. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were at the bottom of the list. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) was also at the bottom of the list, not participating in the gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.02% and has leveled off from recent gains, helping alleviate some risk for large multi-nationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both dropped while the 2y note yield rose, helping bring back down the steep yield curve. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices pulled back from recent gains while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices continued to advance. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both continued to advance. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. All of this shows a bullish outlook on the economy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.538. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward Greed, but not at an extreme level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of biggest four mega-caps had gains for the day, gains that had a lot more strength than the previous day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the largest gain of the four with a +3.26% advance and a record-setting close. Microsoft (MSFT) couldn't quite reach all-time highs but advanced +2.79% in a clear breakout from a base. Amazon (AMZN) had a +2.16% gain but stopped short of its 50d MA line. Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.70%, closing just above its 21d EMA but well below its 50d MA. Semiconductors and Communication stocks topped the mega-cap list. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet were the top four gainers. Most mega-caps advanced for the day. UnitedHealth (UNH), Toyota Motor ™ and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list, all declining more than 1%. Growth Stocks also had a good day. Topping the daily update list were MongoDB (MDB), Pinterest (PINS), DataDog (DDOG) and Fastly (FSLY). All four of these sold off heavily in February and March and are trying to regain ground. At the bottom of the list were Chewy (CHWY), Ehang Holdings (EH) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Good Friday, but employment data will be released. At the time of this writing, the data is already released and showed great recovery in the labor market. Monday will kick-off the week with Purchasing Managers data for March that is a leading indicator for economic activity. That data will be complemented by Factor Orders data just after market open. There are no notable earnings reports for the daily update next week except maybe PAYX on Tuesday that could confirm a positive outlook for the labor market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 50d moving average in the morning and stayed above the line. The five-day trend line points to a +0.47% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line points sideways to a minor -0.05% decline and stays above the 50d MA line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.67% loss, which below the 50d MA and just above the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The expectation was higher for today. Thankfully the market didn't pull an April Fools. Thursday was the kind of day we want to see as a new month and new quarter starts. Gains across all the indexes and most of the sectors. Volatility at its lowest in over a year. Energy and Technology leading the sector list. Solid moves from the large mega-caps. Commodity prices advanced on expected demand. The US Dollar is strengthening but not out of control. The yield curve is starting to show some control. The only thing missing was volume. It was lower than the previous day. However, that may also be a positive sign as volume has been running high since the beginning of December and peaked in February. Maybe, just maybe, some of the frenzy of retail investing as subsided and volume is coming back down to normal levels. Maybe, just maybe, lower volume means continued lower volatility as well. That looks good, but things can change quickly, so always trade with a stop loss. :) Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 3/31 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (19d), 3/25 (5d) and today 3/31 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 31, 2021 Facts: +1.54%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: +60% Good: Higher high, lower low, back above the 21d EMA Bad: Fade at the end of the day created long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with n lower wick, long upper wick Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.26%), RUT (+1.13%), VIX (-1.07%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The breakout that wasn't. News from Microsoft drove a mid-afternoon buying frenzy that was visible in the Microsoft intraday chart and big enough to show up in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 charts. However, the breakout quickly faded and took the indexes with it to close away from intraday highs. Still there were good gains in the market thanks to a bullish morning on positive economic outlook with Biden's announced infrastructure plans. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.54% gain on higher volume, and gave us the gain with higher confidence we were waiting for. The closing range of 62% is above a 60% body with no lower wick. There is a long upper wick from the dip at the end of the day. There were 1.32 advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) added to the previous day's gains with a +1.13% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) also advanced, gaining +0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was weighed down by Financial and Energy stocks and declined -0.26%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.07%. Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top sectors for the day. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were at the bottom. Interestingly, Materials (XLB -0.49%) and Industrials (XLI -0.32%) declined for the day despite Biden's infrastructure plans. It could be a case of sell the news. Another note is that Utilities (XLU +0.74%) climbed in the last hour from fifth place to third place just behind Consumer Discretionary. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed -0.07%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y notes yields all gained for the day with the yield curve steepening. The increase in yields was not a surprise given the news on infrastructure investments, so there was less of a negative reaction from the equities market. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both reversed from two days of declines and advanced today. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.639. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to Neutral. The stock market components of the index are still in the Fear and Extreme Fear categories. Those include price strength, price breadth and Put/Call ratio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of biggest four mega-caps had gains for the day, but all closed well below intraday highs. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed above the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) rallied above the 21d EMA but was unable to hold above the line. The higher volume is a positive, but the pull back from the breakout attempt shows some weakness. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML) were the top mega-caps of the day. Energy and Financial stocks were at the bottom, including Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and JP Morgan (JPM). Communications companies AT&T (T) and Comcast Corp (CMCSA) were also at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks popped again today. Leading the list were Chinese fintech companies Up Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) with +20.94% and 15.20% gains. GrowGeneration (GRWG) and Moderna (MRNA) also had gains of over 10%. 18 of the growth stocks in the daily update list gained over 5%. It's not meant to be an exhaustive list, but the point remains, there were a lot of big gainers today in growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, an OPEC meeting is scheduled which will impact outlook for oil supply/demand. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released. Additional Manufacturing data for March will indicate how the sector is recovering. Also keep in mind to characteristics for tomorrow. It's the beginning of a new quarter and a historically positive month for markets. It's also the last day of trading this week heading into a three-day weekend. CarMax (KMX) reports on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 21d EMA in the morning and stayed above that line, despite the dip before close. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +1.02% gain for Thursday, and ending just under the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a +0.42% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.36% loss, which is just below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was positive to see a good gain on higher volume today. The longer upper wick is reminiscent of the candle on 3/22 where I called an expectation of Higher for the next day. But the index dropped 3% over the next two days. So that gives me some caution in the expectation of Sideways or Higher for tomorrow. There are some differences in the underlying characteristics of the 3/22 candle. The breadth in gains was not there for 3/22, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Today, we have more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The advances on 3/22 happened as treasury yields declined and investors seemed to be in and out of tech stocks based on the movement in yields. Today's rally in tech stocks happened despite higher yields. The creation of the longer upper wick was the same, a sell-off into close after an intraday high. The catalyst this time has a few possibilities. Perhaps Yellen's announcement of more scrutiny on hedge funds stirred the market. But the impact of Microsoft's huge afternoon rally and then pullback can also be felt in the indexes. The timing of the rally and sell-off coincides with the rise in the Utilities sector, a sector that investors run to when their nervous. So I'm bullish with caution for tomorrow. Let's look forward to a great first day of April. And market, don't make a fool out of me. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 3/30 Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (17d), 3/24 (5d) and today 3/30 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 30, 2021 Facts: -0.11%, Volume lower, Closing range: 80%, Body: +24% Good: Closing range of 80%, recovered from morning dip below 13,000 Bad: Lower high, lower low, trending down Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: A bit more than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.32%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (+1.72%), VIX (-5.45%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) and Financials (XLF +0.70%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.07%). Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The bond market continued to show its influence on equities today, seemingly in a battle with strong consumer confidence numbers. A pre-market spike in long-term bond yields drove the Financials sector to a gap up at open. However, the yields began to taper off even before stronger than expected consumer confidence numbers were released after market open. The strong numbers sent the Consumer Discretionary sector to the top to finish the day. The Nasdaq never quite recovered from the morning yield scare, but did end the day in the upper range of the candle. The index closed with a -0.11% loss for the day on lower volume. The closing range of 80% is good indicator for intraday bullishness, but the 24% body and lower high means the index still has much to prove. There were 1.2 advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) finally had a day to shine with a +1.72% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) had nearly similar declines with -0.32% and -0.32% respectively. The VIX volatility index declined -5.45%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) topped the sector list, despite starting the day in the negative. The Consumer Confidence numbers were way better than expected and is a leading indicator of consumer spending. Whereas spending on staples typically remains steady during economic downturns, discretionary spending dips and then picks up once the outlook becomes better. Financials (XLF +0.70%) was the second best sector of the day, helped by the morning spike in long term treasury yields that drive interest rates, and revenues for banks. The strength in Industrials (XLI +0.44%) should also be noted as the infrastructure plans from Biden are expected to boost the sector. All other sectors declined for the day (XLC was even). Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (-1.07%) were the bottom two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.38%, likely impacting big tech valuations. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note declined for the day, after a pre-market spike that sent investors scrambling. The 2y note was flat for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined for a second day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.616. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back toward Neutral, but still on the Fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only big four mega-cap to escape losses, but it only had a +0.03% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) had a -1.44% loss as it's 21d EMA moves under the 50d MA, signaling a bearish outlook for the chart. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had losses of -1.23% and -0.66% and both continue to trade underneath both key moving average lines. Alphabet is the only of the big four that has the 21d EMA above the 50d MA. Baidu (BIDU), Tesla (TSLA), Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top four mega-caps and only mega-caps to gain more than 1% for the day. Abbot Laboratories (ABT) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks generally had a good day. Ehang Holdings (EH), Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and RH (RH) topped the daily update list with greater than 6% gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. Employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. President Biden is expected to reveal the details of his infrastructure plan which is expected to be $3 trillion. That could be great for economic recovery, but will have mixed impacts on the market. We could see yields spike again as inflation fears creep back into investors' minds. On the other hand, we are also likely to see some sectors such as Materials and Industrials benefit. Walgreens (WBA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) report on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below 13,000 support again, but was able to regain the line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.06% gain for Wednesday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line does point upward and would result in a +0.60% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.46% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq continues to creep along without any high volume big moves in either direction the last few days. The index did touch the lower line of a channel drawn from the March 2020 bottom. I noted that level in the weekly update. It was tested, but closed inside the channel. Tomorrow is the last day of the month and last day of the quarter. Let's hope for positive end for the month to spring the market into April. Stay healthy and trade safe!

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