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Daily Market Update for 3/26Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (16d), 3/22 (5d) and today 3/26 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 26, 2021 Facts: +1.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: +53% Good: Rally in afternoon to close near intraday high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with a long lower wick, very small upper wick Advance/Decline: More than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.66%), DJI (+1.39%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-4.80%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -1.09%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A late afternoon rally in the market closed the week with a positive day for all the major indexes. It's not clear what caused the sudden late afternoon rally. It could just be expiring options activity, or it could be investors outlook of the economy improving. Morning economic data was mixed, but the personal income numbers and consumer sentiment showed the possibility of an upcoming rise in spending. Data from UK and Germany was also positive on their economies. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.24% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% with a 53% green body over a long lower wick was enough to get a higher high on top of a higher low. The higher high and higher low with more volume than the previous day is a great indicator of strength. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied +1.66% to its all-time highest close. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was nearing all-time highs when it closed the day with a +1.39% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had its second day of gains, advancing 1.76%. The VIX volatility index declined -4.80%. The top sectors were Technology (XLK +2.54%) and Materials (XLB +2.48%). Communications (XLC -1.09%) was the only sector to have losses for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.05%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined slightly while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced, as the price becomes more volatile due to the Suez Canal blockage. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio stayed nearly even at 0.753. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to neutral. The NAAIM Exposure index is back down to 57.52. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) declined for the day, losing -0.38% and closing below its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) both advanced but remain below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) took back both its 21d EMA and 50d MA as it advanced +1.78% for the day. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC) and Cisco (CSCO) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day, all advancing more than 4%. Tesla (TSLA), Comcast (CMCSA), Walt Disney (DIS) and Alphabet were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks had some winners and some losers. RH (RH) was at the top of the list with a +9.28% gain. ServiceNow (NOW), Dr Horton (DHI), JD.Com (JD) all had more than 4% gains. Still some growth stocks like GrowGeneration (GRWG), DraftKings (DKNG) did not rally on the day. UP Fintech (TIGR) dropped -11.93% after releasing earnings before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Next week will be a four-day trading week with markets closed on Good Friday. There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are also no notable earnings reports for the Daily Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index rallied back above the 13,000 support area in the last hour of trading. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +0.65% gain for Monday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -2.11% loss. The final hour rally was not enough to move the trend line built up the rest of the day. The five-day trend line points to a -2.91% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The rally late on Friday was a welcome site. It may have been options related or it may have been investors finally absorbing the positive economic news from US, UK and Germany. Either way, I want to see a follow through on Monday with higher volume. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/25Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (14d), 3/19 (5d) and today 3/25 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 25, 2021 Facts: +0.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: +60% Good: Closed near to intraday highs Bad: Lower low hit in the morning, resistance at 13,000 near close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with a slightly longer lower wick from morning dip Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (-6.56%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.68%) and Industrials (XLI +1.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Economic news seemed to weigh on the market after open, but investors shook off the weight later in the day to find gains across the major indexes. A short pullback to absorb the reaction from a weak 7y note auction was overcome to close near market intraday highs. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.19% gain. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rebounded to the top of the index list with a +2.29% gain for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.62%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.56%. The top three sectors were Financials (XLF +1.68%), Industrials (XLI +1.60%) and Materials (XLB +1.45%). The bottom two sectors were Technology (XLK -0.06%) and Communications (XLC -0.49%) which were the only two to end the day with losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to climb with a +0.35% gain. The strengthening dollar may be weighing on big tech and other multinationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose for the day while the 2y treasury note yield declined. The rising yields were triggered by a weak auction for 7y notes. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined just slightly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined, despite the possibility of delays caused by the Suez Canal blockage. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.755. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved farther into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) declined with both trading below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) advanced but remained below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day even with yesterday's close, bouncing in between tests of the 21d EMA and 50d MA and closing under the 21d EMA. Bank of America (BAC), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Tesla (TSLA) and Home Depot (HD) were the top mega-caps. The top of the mega-cap list is focused on companies that are not impacted or maybe even benefit from a strengthening dollar. For example, companies relying on imports which become cheaper or companies that have most revenues sourced domestically. On the other hand, companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Nike (NKE) and Netflix (NFLX) have more dependency on foreign revenues and a stronger dollar can impact the value of repatriated revenues. The growth stock list is mixed with winners and losers. SUMO Logic (SUMO) was at the top with a +6.22% gain. Most of the growth stocks at the top of the list are upside reversals from recent sell-offs so bases have not yet been formed. DataDog (DDOG) continues to drop with a -3.69% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Watch for further impacts to the US Dollar from tomorrow's economic data. There are plenty of data points to be released. More insights into consumer sentiment and behaviors will be released tomorrow. Consumer price index data for February as well as consumer sentiment and consumer expectations for March will drive outlooks for inflation and the US dollar. On Friday, Up Fintech (TIGER) will release their earnings update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below the 13,000 area and tried to regain the support but fell short before close. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +2.74% gain for Friday, which is back above the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a +0.71% gain to rise just above the 13,000 support area. The five-day trend line points to a -0.51% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The indexes absorbed mixed news coming into the open of the market today. Jobless Claims were lower than expected which is a positive for the labor market. However, Core PCE Prices and GDP Sales data was weaker than expected. The 7-year auction mid-day was a concern as yields began to rise, but the index resumed the climb when it seemed bond selling was under control. The strengthening dollar is now getting some attention and you'll see that show up in valuations of companies that impacting positively or negatively by a stronger dollar. I have the expectation set for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. The Nasdaq did have a green day, but it's still a down trend with the lower high and lower low. Volume also needs to be higher on green days for more confidence. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/24Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (13d), 3/18 (5d) and today 3/24 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 24, 2021 Facts: -2.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 99% Good: Nothing, even more nothing than yesterday Bad: No wicks, all red body, close below 13,000 support Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu Black candle, no visible upper or lower wick, all red body Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.55%), DJI (-0.01%), RUT (-2.35%), VIX (+4.43%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%) and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview In the endless rotations, the four cyclical sectors moved from the bottom to the top of the sector list in another session of selling for big tech, consumer discretionary and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -2.01% on higher volume. The 0% closing range comes after an all-day bearish move that formed a 99% red body candle. The tiny upper wick is barely visible and there is no lower wick. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing sector, declining another -2.35%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.55% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.01%. The VIX volatility index rose +4.43%. The cyclical sectors were back on top for the day with Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Industrials (XLI +0.73%) performing best. Technology (XLK -1.21%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.48%), and Communications (XLC -2.52%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose another +0.26%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for another day. The spread between long term and short term narrowed. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for another day even as stock indexes dropped. Silver (SILVER) remained about flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) rebounded from its sharp decline. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.751. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved farther into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) lost -2.00%, Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.61%, Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.43% and Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.89%. Microsoft is the only of the four that is trading above its 21d EMA. ASML Holding (ASML) gained +3.53% as the top mega-cap for the day. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Mastercard (MA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) round out the top four. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.16%. Tesla (TSLA) also gave up significant ground with a -4.82% decline. Only one growth stock, Dr Horton (DHI), in the daily update list had a gain for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update on 2020 Q4 GDP numbers. Initial Jobless Claims will also be watched closely for trends in the labor market. There is a 7-Year Treasury Note auction scheduled for the afternoon. Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. For the daily update, there are no relevant earnings releases on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index fell just below the 13,000 area. Hopefully that will trigger some support and we can see gains in the coming days. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +3.80% gain for Thursday, which is back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a +1.80% gain, just below the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -1.38% loss and a dip further below the 13,000 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up In the most recent Market Week In Review, I marked 12,985.05 as a key level to stay above and unfortunately today, the index moved below that line. If you aren't already in defensive mode because of the multiple rotations over the past several weeks, now is a time to be in that mode. We can hope the index makes a turn from here and starts to rally, but there's no indication at this point that will happen. 12,783.40 is where the index would meet the lower side of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The next area to watch for is between 12,500 and 12,600. This would be a new neckline on a head and shoulders pattern that is deeper than the one we previously drew in the daily update. If that pattern played out, the base would be near 11,000. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/23Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (13d), 3/17 (5d) and today 3/23 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 23, 2021 Facts: +1.12%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: -76% Good: Nothing Bad: Back below the 21d EMA with a thick red candle Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Ten declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.76%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-3.58%), VIX (+7.54%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (+0.41%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The character of the market continues to swing in opposite directions. Expectation was for Sideways or Higher for today, and we got lower. If we were keeping score, you'd notice the expectations I'm setting on a daily basis are broken very consistently over the past few weeks. But it's a good time to remind the reader that the expectations are not predictions, but they are to set and expectation, get our attention when the expectation is broken, and learn what might have changed in the market. Here we go. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.12% decline on higher volume. The candle has small upper and lower wicks, but is mostly red body. The closing range of 12% shows the day very much went to the bears. Few bulls came in to buy back the low prices. The selling was broad, across most sectors, segments and impacted all major indexes. There were 10 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.76% and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) declined -0.94%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took the worst beating with a -3.58% loss for the day. The VIX volatility index rose +7.52%. Utilities (XLU +1.52%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.42%) were the top sectors for the day. Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) was the only other sector with gains. These three sectors at the top mean investor nervousness. If investors can't exit equities, then they'll move to these defensive plays. The four cyclicals were at the bottom of the list with Industrials (XLI -1.75%) and Materials (XLB -2.08%) being the worst two performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.65%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for another day. The spread between long term and short term narrowed. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. That's an interesting detail given the sell-off in equities. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for another day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) resumed a sharp decline from highs earlier this month. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also had sharp declines -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.659. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still near neutral, but moving toward fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) declined for the day. However, the other three all closed well below their intraday highs as the market dipped in the second half of the session. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.67% and is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.86% but hit resistance at its 50d MA and closed below the line. Alphabet (GOOGL) briefly traded above its 21d EMA, but ended just below the line with a +0.52% gain. Some mega-caps did much better for the day. Netflix (NFLX) gained +2.29% today. Proctor & Gamble (P&G), Adobe (ADBE) and Walmart (WMT) all closed the day with greater than 1% gains. The mega-cap list has about one advancing for every declining stock. Growth stocks had much smaller ratio of advancing vs declining. Peloton (PTON) and Zoom (ZM) were top advancers with almost 3.5% gains each. So we have Netflix, Peloton and Zoom as top advancing stocks of the day. It's morning where I live and I haven't checked the news yet (I usually check before the wrap-up), but I expect to find news about a resurgence of the pandemic. The market is obvious sometimes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic news will be released on Wednesday. Durable Goods Orders for February will give a heads-up on manufacturing activity. That will be measured against Manufacturing and Services purchasing data for March which can indicate some direction on increasing or decreasing activity in these sectors. Crude Oil Inventory data will also be released. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to continue testimony before congress on Wednesday. His statements are always watched closely for possible sentiment changes. There will be a 5y treasury note auction tomorrow which will be watched closely. Tencent (TCEHY), General Mills (GIS), RH (RH), KB Home (KBH), GrowGeneration (GRWG), and Guess (GES) are all reporting earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is back below the 21d EMA. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +2.27% gain for tomorrow, which is back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA, but under the 13,600 resistance area. The five-day trend line points to a 0.66% gain, right at the 21d EMA. The one-day trend line points to a -0.61% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Even as the end of the pandemic nears, it doesn't seem we can quite get past it. Europe lockdowns were extended at the same time the US questioned data from the AstraZeneca vaccine trial. Global investors reacted to the extended pandemic pressures by buying up US dollar and US treasuries, dropping yields that have been gaining in recent weeks. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoked to the House Financial Services Committee, expressing concerns for the economy but defending future tax increases. That put pressure on US equities, as investors looked to move to safe haven assets and defensive equity plays. Defensive plays moved to the top of the sector list while cyclicals moved to the bottom. The top pandemic stocks of Peloton (PTON), Zoom (ZM) and Netflix (NFLX) all popped again. The recovery stocks, including travel, leisure, airlines all suffered losses for the day. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 3/22Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (12d), 3/16 (5d) and today 3/22 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 22, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 56% Good: Zero lower wick, strong morning rally to above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above 50d MA, losing support late in the session Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, green body under a long upper wick. Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.70%), DJI (+0.32%), RUT (-0.91%), VIX (-9.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.75%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Technology stocks showed up big for the first day of the week. The sector outperformed for the day, carrying most of the major indexes to close with positive gains for the day. The advances were not broadly shared, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.23% gain on significantly lower volume. The candle has no lower wick as the opening price level was never revisited after the morning rally. The 56% body sits under a long upper wick that formed during a sell-off just before close. The closing range of 60% includes a gap up at open and is positive, but does represent the weakness at close. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed with +0.70% and +0.32% gains, largely driven by big tech stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) started the day in the positive, but sold off in the morning as the Nasdaq was rallying. The RUT ended the day with a -0.91% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -9.88%, back to its lowest level since February 2020. Technology (XLK +1.75%) was the top performing sector of the day and the only sector to perform better than the broader S&P 500 index. Communication Services (XLC +0.66%) was the next best sector. Financials (XLF -1.72%) and Energy (XLE -2.00%) performed the worst for the day. Energy continues to underperform after having one of its worst weeks in recent memory last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.09%. The US 30y bond and 10y and 2y treasury note yields all declined for the day, helping drive the gains for big tech and growth stocks. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained for the day. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) was about even while Aluminum (ALI1!) continues advancing to its highest point since 2019. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.532. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps all had gains for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) led the way with +2.83% and 2.45% gains. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.18%. To put these gains into perspective though, consider a few things. All of them are on lower volume. Only Microsoft moved back above its 21d EMA line, while Apple attempted but found resistance. None of the gains were at a "breakout" level where the price moves past the high within a base. Overall mega-caps did well with ASML Holding (ASML) topping the list with a 5.22% gain. Baidu (BIDU), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC) round out the top four mega-caps. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), leading the Financials sector lower. Also at the bottom of the list was Toyota Motor (TM) which could have a big impact from a fire at Japanese auto chip manufacturer Renesas. Digital Turbine (APPS) led growth stocks with a big +10.31% gain. This gain was on higher volume and could be considered a breakout. Okta (OKTA), Chewy (CHWY) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) were other leading growth stocks. At the bottom of the growth stock list were three Chinese stocks. FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH) all lost more than 6%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, New Home Sales data will be released. Also, API Weekly Crude Oil stock will be revealed. Fed chairman Jerome Powell will begin testimony before congress where he's expected to applaud the stimulus bill and economic support programs as having a positive impact, but that we are not out of the woods yet for long term economic recovery. There will be a 2y treasury note auction tomorrow which will be watched closely. Adobe (ADBE) will release earnings on Tuesday. It probably doesn't make much difference for the stock price, but GameStop (GME) will also announce earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA today, but was unable to hold support above the 50d MA. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +1.47% gain for tomorrow, just under the 13,600 support area. The one-day trend line points to a +1.28% gain, and back above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a -1.39% loss, back below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a good to start the week with a gain for the Nasdaq. However, the gains were not broadly shared and were on less volume than has been average since the start of the year. Investors are still watching yields closely on treasury notes and bonds, adjusting valuations on sectors such as Technology, Communications and Financials. As they yields continue to be volatile, expect these sectors to also be volatile. Also watch for surprises from the testimony of Jerome Powell to congress. If pressed with questions, investors will be listening closely to his answers to understand the timing of future tapering of bond buying or interest rate hikes. So far, he has been firm and clear that nothing would change through 2023. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5
Daily Market Update for 3/19Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (11d), 3/15 (5d) and today 3/19 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 19, 2021 Facts: +0.76%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 45% Good: Support at 13,000 to start morning rally Bad: Rally lost steam in afternoon, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body with lower wick slightly longer than upper wick Advance/Decline: One advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (-0.71%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-2.92%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.87%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.60%) were top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.16%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.33%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets ended another choppy week with one more rotation as investors continue to adjust against what's happening in the bond market. Yesterday's sale of bonds settled down and investors moved back into some growth stocks. But it was not a broad rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 ending the day with losses. The Nasdaq gained +0.76% on higher volume, but made a new low compared to the previous day and didn’t manage a new high. The closing range of 83% with a 45% green body is from a bullish intraday that testing the 13,000 area and then rallied into the afternoon. The upper wick formed from a tapering in prices after the morning rally stalled. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the best performing index of the day with a +0.88% gain. That was not nearly enough to recover from yesterday's selling. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.06% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) lost -0.71%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.92%. Communications (XLC +0.87%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.60%) were top sectors. Technology (XLK) lost -0.30% which is a surprise considering the tech heavy Nasdaq had gains. Financials (XLF -1.16%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.33%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.06%. The US 30y treasury bond yield declined while the 10y and 2y treasury bond yields remained about even. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both gained for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) was about even. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) was about even while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.696. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back to neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation. The majority of mega-caps did well for the day and growth stocks had a much better day than yesterday. I'll return to more specific updates on market leaders next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Existing Homes Sales data will be released on Monday just after market open. Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) will release earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index remains below the 21d EMA and 50d MA, but tested and found support at the 13,000 area. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +2.55% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.47%. The five-day trend line points to a +2.20% gain. The trend line from the 2/16 all-time high was removed last week, but the index has returned to the midpoint of that channel. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice upside reversal from yesterday's selling, but there still seems to be some weakness behind the move. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial both had declines. The Technology sector also declined, despite the Nasdaq having a gain. Homework for the weekend should be to look at the stocks in your portfolio and watchlist. Because of the choppiness the last few weeks, you can learn a lot about what other investors, especially institutional investors, believe about your picks. Look for strength against the indexes and against their sector. Pay close attention to volume on up days and down days. Is there more volume during selling or buying? How are they performing on the weekly chart vs the daily chart? Are they holding above key moving average lines (21d EMA, 50d MA, 200d MA, etc)? Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/18Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (10d), 3/12 (5d) and today 3/18 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 18, 2021 Facts: -3.02%, Volume higher, Closing range: 5%, Body: 82% Good: Nothing Bad: Broke below 50d MA and 21d EMA, selling most of the day Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body, with no visible lower wick Advance/Decline: Four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.48%), DJI (-0.46%), RUT (-2.94%), VIX (+12.22%) Sectors: Financials (XLY +0.52%) was the only sector with gains. Technology (XLK -2.77%) and Energy (XLE -4.49%) were the worst performing. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Did the market wake up with a hangover? After the positive news from the Fed caused a rally late yesterday, the market took a turn downward today. It started again with a surge in bond yields that impact the valuation of big tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -3.02% in a painfully red session with only a 5% closing range. The 82% red body with no visible lower wick shows the selling throughout the day. A pause at the 21d EMA could not hold and the selling regained steam into close. There were 4 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was holding onto positive gains, even setting a new all-time high before selling off in the late afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial closed down -0.46%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.48%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) Declined -2.94%. The VIX volatility index gained +12.22%. Only Financials (XLF +0.52%) closed the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.45%) and Technology (XLK - 2.77%) were hard hit among the sectors. The worst performing sector was Energy (XLE -4.49%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained -0.42%. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all gained for the day with the spread between long term and short term widening again. The US 30y yield is at its highest point since June 2019 while the 10y is at its highest point since January 2020. The yield curve is at its steepest since 2015. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both declined for the day. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds widened a bit. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined for another day. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined as well. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.627. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back to neutral. The NAAIM exposure index is at 78.55 as of the close on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation. All four of the largest mega-caps closed below their 21d EMA. Only Alphabet (GOOGL) remains above its 50d MA. A handful of mega-caps had gains for the day, including large financials Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM). However most mega-caps lost for the day. Only one of the growth stocks tracked by the daily update had a gain for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no notable economic news scheduled for tomorrow, however it is a triple witching day. A triple witching day happens once a quarter when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index option contracts all expire on the same day. It can cause extra trading volume and volatility in the last hour of trading as investors close or roll-out expiring contracts. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dropped below both the 50d MA and 21d EMA today and closed above the 13,000 support area. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +3.74% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a +2.20% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.92%. The trend line from the 2/16 all-time high was removed last week, but the index has returned to the midpoint of that channel. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was not the day we expected, but the bond sellers had their way. There will be more volatility in bonds throughout this year as the economic recovery of many countries, not just the US, begins to impact their currency and treasury performance. The volatility to treasury bonds will likewise be felt with growth and big tech companies that benefit from cheap financing to fund growth. It will be a wild ride this year. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Daily Market Update for 3/17Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (9d), 3/11 (5d) and today 3/17 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 17, 2021 Facts: +0.40%, Volume higher, Closing range: 78%, Body: 58% Good: High closing range on slightly higher volume, support at 21d EMA Bad: Lower high, lower low, dipped below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body covers most of candle, similar upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.29%), DJI (+0.58%), RUT (+0.73%), VIX (-2.83%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.40%) and Industrials (XLI +1.15%) were top. Health (XLV -0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -1.63%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Happy St. Patrick's Day! Investors got what they needed to hear from the fed's Jerome Powell. Interest rates will remain untouched and there will be no tapering of bond buying despite a big upgrade in the fed's outlook on the economy. The change in investor sentiment mid-day was clear as the indexes made a rally. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.4% gain after dipping below the 50d MA and 21d EMA in the morning. The dip came as yields soared and investors worried about what was to come from the Fed meeting. After rallying in the afternoon, the index closed on slightly higher volume with a 78% closing range. The short upper wick above a 58% green body was formed from a small pullback just before close. There were about equal number of advancing and declining stocks. All indexes ended the day positive with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining +0.29% and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gaining +0.58%. The Russell 2000 was the top performing index for the day with a +0.73% gain. The VIX volatility index declined another -2.83% and is at its lowest point since February 2020. It is still above levels before the market crash of 2020. The improved outlook from the Fed had an impact across several sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.40%) and Industrials (XLI +1.15%) were top. The cyclical sectors recovered from losses earlier in the week. Health (XLV -0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -1.63%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained -0.46%. The Fed expects inflation to reach around 2.2% which will weaken the dollar in the short term. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose for the day, but pulled back from the big increases in the morning. The US 2y treasury bond yield dropped for the day. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both rose today. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Most commodities are bullish on the improved economic outlook from the fed. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.605. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation. Mega-caps overall were mixed while the majority of growth stocks benefited from the day's news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly initial jobless claims data will be released on Thursday. Better than expected numbers could be a boost to today's optimistic outlook. Manufacturing data will also be released that will provide insight into how manufacturing is recovering to meet demand. Nike (NIKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Dollar General (DG), Weibo Corp (WB), Utz Brands (UTZ) will report earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to close above the 50d MA showing some support at that level. The one-day trend line points to a +1.57% gain tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +1.13% gain. The five-day trends line points to a -0.26% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market and the fed have been a bit at odds for the past month. Today the fed won. They gave us a firm stance on interest rates and bond buying while acknowledging the improved outlook for growth in the economy this year. That didn't provide any room for the market to argue. Don't fight the fed. That can put some more steam into the market rally. Still, many sectors have taken quite a beating in the charts this past few weeks and there is still a ways to go to recover prices. Until then, expect those sectors, stocks and indexes to meet with resistance as overhead supply needs to be shaken out before new highs can be made. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 3/16Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (8d), 3/10 (5d) and today 3/16 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 16, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 33%, Body: 23% Good: Higher high, higher low, successful test of 50d MA Bad: Low closing range, longer upper wick, could not hold morning rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body underneath a long upper wick Advance/Decline: Over three declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.16%), DJI (-0.39%), RUT (-1.72%), VIX (-1.20%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.05%) and Technology (XLK +0.75%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.42%) and Energy (XLE -2.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview An attempted rally in the morning sold off as investors reacted to disappointing economic data, both for February retails sales and industrial and manufacturing production. Gains were limited to fewer stocks and dominated by mega-caps. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain, but that was down from a 1.19% gain earlier in the day. After testing the 50d MA, the index bounced back up to close a bit below where it opened and leaving behind a 23% red body. The 33% closing range is not great, but the volume was lower than the previous day and lower than average. There were over three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The other major indexes all lost. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.39%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performer with a -1.72% decline. The VIX volatility index declined -1.20%. Communications (XLC +1.05%) and Technology (XLK +0.75%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.42%) and Energy (XLE -2.85%) were bottom. All of the cyclicals (Energy, Financials, Industrials and Materials) lost as well as Consumer Discretionary. These sectors were impacted by the disappointing economic data in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.09%. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose slightly, but seem to be leveling off. US 2y bond yields remained flat. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both declined today. The spread between corporate and treasury bonds remain about the same. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.644. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation, but keep an eye on the mega-caps as they influence the indexes. The mega-caps overall did well today with the majority ending the day with gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Wednesday, we'll get news on Building Permits and Housing Starts before the market opens. After the opening bell, Crude Oil Inventories will be released. The FOMC will meeting tomorrow. In the afternoon, their economic projections and interest rate projections will be released. This will be the biggest economic news of the day and set the stage for the next moves in both bonds and equity markets. Will the Fed make investors more or less confident in the stability of yields and the US dollar. Wednesday's earnings reports will include Pinduoduo (PDD), BMW ADR (BMWYY), Cintas (CTAS), Five Below (FIVE). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to stay above the 50d MA showing some support at that level. The support only really matters, if news from the FOMC meeting remains positive and confident. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +1.51% gain while the five-day points to a +0.93% advance. The trend from today is downward and if it continues, the one-day trends line points to a -1.23% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This morning's economic news was a bit of a shock for investors who were expecting better numbers pointing to the economic recovery. Instead it showed the recovery slowing in speed and raising some alarms. The reaction was negative but also showed some caution from overreacting as there is more to come this week with the FOMC meeting. Despite the economic data, yields did not move much. One might have expected them to come down a bit more given the perception the economic recovery is not overheating and inflation may not accelerate. But all eyes really are going to be on the Fed. What adjustments will they make to the outlook for economic growth this year? Will they even hint at changes in monetary policy? Will this be the start of the next "Taper Tantrum"? Tomorrow we will have a lot to digest. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
8
Daily Market Update for 3/15Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (7d), 3/9 (5d) and today 3/15 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 15, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume higher, Closing range: 100%, Body: 73% Good: Close above last week's high and back above 50d MA Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, most green body over lower wick Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.65%), DJI (+0.53%), RUT (+0.31%), VIX (-3.19%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.34%) and Utilities (XLU +1.28%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -1.14%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a relatively smooth start to the week as bond yields stayed fairly tame compared to previous weeks. That allowed the tech heavy Nasdaq to continue a rally to catch up with the other indexes. There is still more catchup to do as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial average and Russell 2000 set new all-time highs. After a brief test of the 21d EMA line, the Nasdaq rallied into close for a +1.05% gain on higher volume. The volume increased as the index moved up in the last 30 minutes of trading to end the day with a 100% closing range. The 73% green body is above a lower wick formed from some selling before noon. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.65%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had an early morning rally that sold off, but then was able to recover and close the day with +0.53% gains. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the day with a +0.31% advance, but only after visiting intraday lows twice in a choppy session The VIX volatility index declined -3.19%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.34%) and Utilities (XLU +1.28%) were the top sectors. Utilities (XLU) was near the top of the sector list last week during the back and forth rotation. Financials (XLF -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -1.14%) were at the bottom of the list for today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.16%. We will continue to watch treasury bond yields today. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields declined slightly while the 2y yield increased, helping to flatten the curve a bit. However the yield curve remains steep. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both increased for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) pulled back from highs. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.523. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward the greed level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation, but keep an eye on the mega-caps as they influence the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data will be released Tuesday before market open. Industrial Production data will also be released, both indicating the pace at which economic activity is recovering. Volkswagen (VWAGY) will report earnings on Tuesday. In addition, FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Coupa Software (COUP), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Eastman Kodak (KODK) will report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved back above the 50d MA which should provide some support. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +0.97% gain while the five-day and one-day trends lines point to a +0.26% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Bond investors have calmed a bit, allowing the longer term bond yields to settle a big. I'll be keeping a close eye on the yields for the coming week at they are having a big influence on tech and growth stocks, which impacts the Nasdaq. The expectation for tomorrow is for sideways or higher. If the index can follow-through with the expectation, it can start to work toward the all-time high. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/12Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (19d), 3/8 (5d) and today 3/12 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 12, 2021 Facts: -0.59%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: 58% Good: Bulls bought back the morning lows to bring index back above 21d EMA Bad: Lower high and lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body above a lower wick with very small upper wick Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.61%), VIX (-5.57%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) and Utilities (XLU +1.35%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Are you dizzy yet? This rotation just won't end. Every day this week the Technology sector flipped from the bottom of the sector list to the top and then the next day to the bottom. Yesterday it was at the top. Today it's back at the bottom. As long term bond yields are reaching for pre-pandemic highs, investors are still trying to determine the impact on valuations of big tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed the week with a green candle, but ended the day with a -0.59% decline. Volume was lower but the bulls bought up a morning dip to bring the index back above the 21d EMA in the afternoon. A closing range of 97% means a very small upper wick. The longer lower wick rests underneath a 58% green body. There were about the same number of advancing and declining stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both made new all-time highs. The big industrial stocks of the DJI and small-caps of the RUT are likely to benefit the most from the new stimulus and recovering economy. The DJI closed with a 0.90% gain while the RUT advanced +0.61%. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the day with a 0.10% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -5.57%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) tops the sector list despite rising yields. With consumer sentiment on the rise, it could be a boon for real estate. Utilities (XLU +1.35%) and Industrials (XLI +1.34%) are also at the top. Communications (XLC -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) moved back to the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.27%. Yields on the 30y and 10y treasury bonds both rose to new recent highs. The 30y yield is at its highest point since January 2020, while the 10y is at its highest point since early February 2020. The 2y yield rose modestly for the day. The yield curve is at its steepest since 2016. A steep yield curve means rising interest rates in the future. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both declined for another day. Silver (SILVER) declined while and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) remained about even. Timber (WOOD) continues to advance. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.606. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward the greed level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four big mega-caps have been back and forth all week. Today they all declined. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.58% and -2.41%, but remain above their key moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.76% and -0.77% and are below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. New Oriental Ed (EDU) was the top mega-cap stock of the day with a +4.55% gain. Bank of America (BAC), Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) round out the top four, each with gains greater than 1.51%. Alibaba (BABA), Alphabet, and Facebook (FB) were at the bottom of the list with 2% or more declines. Some growth stocks did well. SNAP (SNAP) had a great day with a +5.15% gain. Ehang Holdings (EH), Palantir (PLTR) and Grow Generation (GRWG) all had gains, albeit modest compared to recent history, at around 0.5% to 0.75%. DataDog (DDOG) , Okta (OKTA), Peloton (PTON) and JD.com (JD) were at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The short-term 3 month and 6 month bill auctions will be on Monday. Late in the after TIC Net Long-Term Transactions will show how much investors are trading in foreign securities markets (both inbound and outbound to the US). The number is directly linked to currencies since the investors first need to buy the local currency before investing. Monday's earning reports will include a couple interesting small-caps: Vuzix (VUZI) and Desktop Metal (DM). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped back below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, but was able to close above the 21d EMA. The five-day trend line points to a +1.51% advance while the one-day trend line points toa a +0.63% advance. Both would be moves back above the 50d MA. The longer trend-line from the 2/16 ATH points to a -3.72% decline, moving the index back below the 13,000 area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been a wild week and I'm glad the weekend is here. The up and down of Technology and Growth stocks left investors not sure whether to be in or out of the action. If you found other plays in industrials or cyclical stocks, you might have had a great week. I used the Nasdaq as the basis for the daily update because it represents most closely the stocks I invest in. But keep in mind that the Dow Jones Industrial average and the Russell 2000 are hitting new all-time highs. The S&P 500 index is also near new all-time highs. Once the rotation settles, we should see the Nasdaq start to move along more closely with the other indexes. Even with the choppy week, the Nasdaq does close the week with gains over last week. Check your watch lists and find stocks that are acting pretty well compared to their peers and the market. I found the DELL chart recently and it seems DELL didn't get the memo for the tech correction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/11Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (17d), 3/4 (5d) and today 3/10 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 11, 2021 Facts: +2.52%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 67% Good: Another higher high and higher low, back above 21d EMA and 50d MA Bad: Not much, resistance at 13,400 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: Almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.04%), DJI (+0.58%), RUT (+2.31%), VIX (-2.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.14%) and Communications (XLC +1.89%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.26%) and Financials (XLF -0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The back and forth continues as the Nasdaq and technology stocks rise again. The sector list has flipped back and forth the last several days as investors rotate in and out of big tech and growth stocks. Today, the market rallied as jobs reports showed positive gains in the labor market and the stimulus is proceeding to Biden's signature. Technology was back on top while Financials moved to the bottom. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.52% gain on lower volume. The 67% green body was formed in the morning as the index quickly rose to intraday highs around 13,400 and stayed there the rest of the day. The short upper wick is above an 81% closing range. There were almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock. All four major indexes gained for the day with the Russell 2000 (RUT) advancing 2.31%, just behind the Nasdaq performance. The S&P 500 gained +1.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial gained +0.58%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.88%. The sector list flipped once again with Technology (XLK +2.14%) moving to the top, followed by Communications (XLC +1.89%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%). Financials (XLF -0.29%) moved to the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.44%. Yields on the US 30y and 10y treasury bonds rose. The 2y bond yields dropped. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both gained for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined just slightly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained. Timber (WOOD) continues to advance. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.571 as investors get more bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward the greed level. The NAAIM exposure index moved all the way down to 0.48. That's the lowest exposure since April of 2020 and brings up the question of what is driving prices higher if investment managers are reducing positions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest advance with a +3.16% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +2.03%. Both Alphabet and Microsoft are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had gains of +1.65% and +1.83% but remain under their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), New Oriental Ed (EDU), PayPal (PYPL) and Tesla (TSLA) were the top four mega-caps. AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) were at the bottom of the list despite Communications ending near the top of the sector list. Almost all the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains. UP Fintech (TIGR), Ehang Holdings (EH) and Digital Turbine (APPS) topped the list with more than 14% gains. SUMO Logic declined 13.51% after beating earnings but offering soft sales guidance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday's producer price index data will complement the consumer price data earlier in the week. In addition, the inflation expectation and consumer sentiment numbers released after the market opens will be watched closely. Sharp (SHCAY) will report earnings on Friday before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines today and met resistance around 13,400. The five-day and one-day trend lines both point to another gain tomorrow that will be a +1.29% advance. The longer trend-line from the 2/16 ATH points to a -4.60% decline, moving the index back below the 13,000 area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Having the index close above the 21d EMA and 50d MA is a great positive sign for the rally. Another advance on higher volume would solidify the rally in my opinion and I'd mark the bottom as 2/5 and update the trend-lines. Still, I have a few concerns. The NAAIM exposure index moving to less than 50% while the market rallies is a mystery. What is driving prices higher if positions are being reduced by money managers. The answer could be the record amount of retail trading and the popularity of options trading. Another indicator I've started to watch, but haven't been including here is the TRIN.NQ ARMS Trading Index. This index measures the Advance/Decline ratio against the Advancing Volume / Declining Volume ratio. A number of 1.00 indicates a balance of volume between advancing and declining stocks. A low number under 0.5 would mean there is a larger amount of volume going to advancing stocks and could indicate panic buying as investors buy the dip. Nonetheless, an advance past the 21d EMA tells me there's reason to look at opportunities for entry with controlled risk. I'd be selective about what stocks are setting up with proper bases vs which are rebounding and may turn back around in the coming week as rally buying fades. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/10Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (16d), 3/3 (5d) and today 3/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 10, 2021 Facts: -0.04%, Volume lower, Closing range: 14%, Body: 69% Good: Higher high, higher low, support above 13,000 Bad: Rejection off 21d EMA in morning led to selling and close near low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.60%), DJI (+1.46%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-6.12%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.53%) and Financials (XLF +2.04%) were back on top. Technology (XLK -0.40%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rotation settles. There was still signs of rotation in the market today, with the sector list flipping once again. But the effect is much more subdued than the past week. The passing of the stimulus has investors eyes wide open while they sent the Dow Jones Industrial to all-time highs. The Nasdaq was not able to benefit from the enthusiasm as it declined -0.04%. A sideways move, but still a day marked by selling after a morning gap-up. The closing range of 14% is underneath a thick red body of 69% and slightly longer upper wick formed just after the market opened. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks, however volume on declining stocks was higher. The other three major indexes all gained for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the biggest gains with a +1.81% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +1.46% while the S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.60%. The Dow Jones Industrial has a very bullish candle that closed at an all-time high. The VIX volatility index declined another -6.12%. The sector list flipped back and forth the past three days with the top and bottom trading positions. Energy (XLE +2.53%) and Financials (XLF +2.04%) were back on top. Technology (XLK -0.40%) was on the bottom and the only losing sector for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.15%. Yields on the US 30y bond rose for the day while the 10y and 2y yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both gained for another day, showing investors' confidence in US corporations as the stimulus bill is passed. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for another day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.594 as investors get more bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.58% and moved back below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.20% but closed above the key moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined and remain below both key moving average lines. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the leading mega-cap of the day, gaining +3.07% on optimism over economic activity picking up in sectors that depend on oil.Comcast (CMCSA), Bank of America (BAC), and Walmart (WMT) were other winners at the top of the mega-cap list. New Oriental Ed (EDU) lost 14%. Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML), all mega-caps with foreign HQ. The big winners in growth stocks were Draft Kings (DKNG) and Penn Gaming (PENN) with 11.40% and 6.65% gains. Digital Turbine (APPS) continues to reverse from recent lows with a +6.13% gain today. Still, the list of growth stocks tracked by the daily update has more losers than winners. MongoDb (MDB) , SUMO Logic (SUMO) and Peloton (PTON) all had losses of more than 4%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update to Initial Jobless Claims and the JOLTs Job Openings report. Both are expected to improve over previous numbers. JD.com (JD) is the big mega-cap reporting on Thursday before market opens. DocuSign (DOCU) and Celsius (CELH) will also report Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq was able to stay above 13,000 today. It tested but was not able to move above the 21d EMA. The five-day trend line points to a positive gain of +1.25% for Thursday. The one-day trend line is pointing to a -0.90% loss that would break back below the 13,000 area. The longer trend-line from the 2/16 ATH points to a -2.76% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I am still waiting for a positive gain on higher volume, and ideally a move back above the 21d EMA. That will show more support in the Nasdaq and in our favorite tech and growth stocks. It's also a good time to look out beyond the stocks that were working so well in 2020 and discover the stocks that are likely to benefit from the economic recovery. The good news is that the swings in bond yields and fears of inflation seem to be subsiding which will bring a little more predictability to the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
7
Daily Market Update for 3/9Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (16d), 3/3 (5d) and today 3/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 9, 2021 Facts: +3.69%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: 56% Good: Good gain on higher volume, higher high, higher low, above 13k Bad: Selling in last hour of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Slightly longer upper wick with a thick green body Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.42%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (+1.91%), VIX (-5.65%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.78%) and Technology (XLK +3.40%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -0.91%) and Energy (XLE -1.75%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rotation reverses. Today saw a reversal of the past several days rotation as money flooded back into big tech, consumer discretionary, and growth stocks. Treasury bond yields seemed to stabilize a bit allowing investors to turn their eyes on the stimulus and the impact it will have on performance in the near term. The Nasdaq closed with +3.69% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 72% came after some selling in the final hour of trading, forming the upper wick. The green body covers 56% of the candle and represents a day that was dominated by the bulls. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. All major indexes had gains for the day with the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) having the smallest gain in contrast to the past several days. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.42% while the Russell 2000 gained +1.91%. The VIX volatility index declined -5.65%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.78%) and Technology (XLK +3.40%) were the top sectors as investors rushed in for buying opportunities. Financials (XLF -0.91%) and Energy (XLE -1.75%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) pulled back -0.38% after several days of gains. Yields on the US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bonds all declined for the day. That was a welcome change for investors nervous about the impact of higher yields on big tech and growth stocks. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both gained after several days of declines. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.661. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest gains with +4.06% and 3.76% advances. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +2.81% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.64%. Microsoft and Alphabet closed back above their 21d EMA. Apple and Amazon remain below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Tesla (TSLA) made a huge upside reversal with a 19.65% gain. Nvdia (NVDA), ASML Holding (ASML) and PayPal (PYPL) all gained more than 6%. Walt Disney (DIS) dropped -3.66% after a big gain the previous day. Bank of America (BAC) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) led their respective sectors lower with declines of over 2% each. Sixteen of the growth stocks tracked for the daily update had gains over 10%. Another eighteen had gains between 5% and 10%. Looking at the extended list of growth stocks, the number of stocks with big gains just keeps going. Only Dr Horton (DHI) had a loss, but that was after two days of gains despite the market dipping. Ehang Holdings (EH) was the big winner with a 31% gain. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) were also Chinese stocks at the top of the growth stock list. Grow Generation (GRWG) had an 18% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are two significant economic events for Wednesday. First, I had anticipated the stimulus vote being today, but Nancy Pelosi announced shortly after my update that it would likely happen Wednesday. The second big event will be the 10y note auction by the US Treasury. Today's 3y note auction had an average response, alleviating some fears by investors. Another look at inflation will come on Wednesday with the release of consumer price index data in the morning. Crude Oil Inventories data will come after the market opens. Oracle (ORCL) will report on Wednesday. Joining Oracle, will be Campbell Soup (CPB), Cloudera (CLDR) and Sumo Logic (SUMO). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq was able to get back above 13,000 today. It paused slightly in that area before moving higher, showing it's still both a support and resistance line. If today's rebound continues, the one-day trend line points to a +1.92% gain for tomorrow that would take the index back above the 21d EMA. Another higher volume gain that restores the index above the 21d EMA would be a confidence booster. The five-day trend line points to a -1.75% loss, back below the 13,000 area. The trend line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a -2.94% decline for tomorrow. I'll remove the head and shoulders pattern from the discussion since we moved back above the neckline. If we decline again, then we'll revisit the levels in the pattern. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a positive expectation breaker today. Monday's selling seemed the index wanted to go lower, but the market does what it wants to do. The rotation back into big tech obviously helps the tech-heavy Nasdaq to have huge gains. Remember that rotations swing back and forth before the right level is discovered in the market. There's plenty of evidence of panic buying in today's bullish results. That panic buying can easily turn into profit taking, especially as these stocks with massive gains hit overhead supply and investors take the chance to get out of what was a losing position. So proceed with caution. The expectation tomorrow is set for sideways or higher. Keep an eye on your favorite stocks and see how they perform over the next few days before overcommitting. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/8Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (15d), 3/2 (5d) and today 3/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 8, 2021 Facts: -2.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 73% Good: Held above 12,600 as market closed Bad: Could not hold short rally in morning, selling the rest of afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Short upper wick over a thick red body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: More than one declining stock for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (+0.97%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.28%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.41%) and Materials (XLB +1.34%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC -1.34%) and Technology (XLK -2.42%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rotation continues. It's not often that a rotation is so clearly seen, with the Dow Jones ending the day up nearly 1% and the Nasdaq ending the day down 2.41%. Nine sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index, while the other two sectors lost enough to bring down the index for a loss by the end of the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.41% loss on lower volume. The closing range of 2% followed an afternoon of selling that formed the 73% red body underneath a small upper wick from the short morning rally. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.97% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.49%. The S&P 500 declined -0.54%. The VIX volatility index rose +3.28%. Utilities (XLU +1.41%) and Materials (XLB +1.34%) were the top sectors for the day, with 8 out of the 11 SPDR sectors advancing for the day. Communications (XLC -1.34%) and Technology (XLK -2.42%) were the bottom, weighted down by losses from large mega-caps that dominate the two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to advance with a +0.45% gain today. It has now regained a support area from the second half of 2020. Yields on the US 30y and 10y treasury bonds rose for the day. The 2y yield spiked above 1.5 again with a 16% increase to 0.169. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both dropped. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) pulled a bit back from its recent advance. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.633. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) had the biggest losses with -4.27% and -4.17% declines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.82%. Amazon (AMZN) declined for -1.62%. All four are trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA. They continue to weigh down the indexes and their respective sectors as they have an overweight impact due to their size. Several mega-caps did very well for the day. Walt Disney (DIS) gained +6.27% for the day. Roche Holding (RHHBF) gained 5%. Oracle (ORCL) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) proved not all is bad for mega-cap tech stocks with gains of around 3% each. Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) also appeared at the top of the mega-cap list. PayPal (PYPL), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) occupied the bottom of the list with over 5% losses each. Growth stocks tracked by the daily update were mostly down for the day. Dr Horton (DHI), Draft Kings (DKNG), Ehang Holdings (EH) and Penn National Gaming (PENN) all had gains for the day. FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR) both were hit with greater than 10% declines. Digital Turbine (APPS) declined a huge 16.32% and is nearly 40% below its all-time high set less than a week ago. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The EIA Short-Term energy outlook will be released before market opens on Tuesday. After market close, the API Weekly Crude Oil stock numbers will be released. The house is expected to vote on the stimulus bill on Tuesday. MongoDb (MDB) and Open Lending (LPRO) will report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a +0.60% gain for tomorrow that would be a nice bounce the 12,600 area. The one-day trend line is pointing to a -1.63% which would test the 12,400 low from Friday. The five-day trend line points to a -2.19% loss, breaking thru the 12,400 mark. We've been keeping an eye on a head and shoulders pattern. This pattern represents an attempt to move back to new highs that was rejected at a previous resistance point. Typically the height of the head is measured to determine the potential move downward that will occur as the price breaks below the neck line, which occurred last week. I've also been cautioning that the drop would not happen in a straight line. Expect some back-and-forth as the index looks for a bottom. The target low from the pattern is 6.3% below Monday's close. Of course, the index could move lower than that point. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Although the expectation set for today was sideways or higher based on Friday's candle, I also noted the weak volume in the rebound on Friday that gave me concern about holding the gains into Monday. Today's sell-off was also at low volume, so it did not really set a decisive direction for the index. Nonetheless, buyers of Nasdaq mega-cap stocks were missing even as the index dipped to a lower close. Given the thick red bodied candle, the expectation for tomorrow is lower. The passing of the stimulus may provide some support to some segments of stocks but it may also stoke more fears of inflation and rising interest rates that have pulled down big tech and growth stocks. Keep an eye out for stocks that are preforming well relative to the indexes and put them on your watch list. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/5Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (14d), 3/1 (5d) and today 3/5 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 5, 2021 Facts: +1.55%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 11% Good: Morning selling turned into afternoon buying, high closing range Bad: Shrinking volume into afternoon, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: The long lower wick shows the morning selling was bought back for a rally into afternoon Advance/Decline: About three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.95%), DJI (+1.85%), RUT (+2.11%), VIX (-13.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.74%) and Industrials (XLI +2.37%) were the top sectors. Real Estate (XLRE +1.15%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The week ended with some positive market gains to take into the weekend. It's a start, but there are still several tests for the indexes to pass and prove investors are here to stay and rally next week. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.55% on slightly lower volume than the previous day, but higher than average. The closing range was a high 96% with a thin body of 11% that rests above a very long lower wick. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The major indexes all did well with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining +1.95% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gaining +1.85%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the best day with a +2.11% as small caps recovered from yesterday's sell-off. The VIX volatility index retreated -13.69%. All sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +3.74%) and Industrials (XLI +2.37%) led the sectors with the biggest gains, driven by a positive outlook for the economic recovery as job numbers came in higher than expected. At the bottom of the list were Real Estate (XLRE +1.15%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.64%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to advance with a +0.38% gain today. Yields on the US 30y and 10y treasury bonds remained about the same. The 2y yields declined for the day as short term bonds continue to trade with high volatility. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices dropped slightly. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced, both making small moves. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures made another big advance. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.816, remaining high compared to the past few months of overly bullish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest move with a +3.10%, not needing to content with resistance at moving average lines. Microsoft (MSFT) moved back above its 50d MA with a +2.15% gain. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) also had gains, but are still trading well below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Most mega-caps gained for the day, with Oracle (ORCL), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Chevron (CVX) and Intel (INTC) leading the list with greater than 4% gains. Tesla (TSLA) did not find its way back into positive territory after the morning selling, closing the day with a -3.78% loss. Growth stocks were mixed. Paycom software gained +7.70%, likely benefiting from the strong employment data. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Dr Horton (DHI) also had big days with over 5% gains. Not all growth stocks recovered from the morning selling. Digital Turbine (APPS) closed with a -6.12% loss after dipping more than 16% in the morning. It was a similar story for CrowdStrike (CRWD), Chewy (CHWY) and MongoDB (MDB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much scheduled economic news to kick-off the week on Monday. We might have an update on the stimulus bill over the weekend that could impact markets. Earnings reports on Monday will include Livongo (LVGO), Niu Tech (NIU), Gohealth (GOCO). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance If today's afternoon rally continues into Monday, the one-day trend line points to a +3.05% gain on Monday that would take the index back to just below the 50d MA. The trend-line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a -1.10% decline for Monday. The five-day trend line points to a -3.98% loss. The index dipped below the 12,550 support area today before rallying and falling short of 13,000. We could count 12,400 as support which is where the index dipped to today. This week, we've been keeping an eye on a head and shoulders pattern. This pattern represents an attempt to move back to new highs that was rejected at a previous resistance point. Typically the height of the head is measured to determine the potential move downward that will occur as the price breaks below the neck line. The index is still below the neck line, so the pattern is still worth watching. I've also been cautioning that the drop would not happen in a straight line. Today's bounce back from the intraday low could be a temporary one. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking Deeper at the Rebound I want to take a deeper look at today's rally from the morning dip. The timing didn't make much sense as I couldn't find any discernable catalyst to reverse the morning selling. The reverse happened around 11:30, two hours after the positive employment data hit the market. The reversal was also at a very odd round 12,400 for the Nasdaq. The below chart is the intraday 15m chart and the thing that sticks out is the contrast of volume in the morning selling vs the volume as investors came in to buy the dip. This would indicate that larger institutions were distributing in the morning, but a smaller number of investors were accumulating in the afternoon. In fact, the Volume Weighted Average Price for the day did not regain positive territory. The response is to not get overly optimistic about the afternoon rally. Keep a cautious eye on what's happening below the surface. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's always nice to see a positive gain in the market. But there are still several tests that I'd like to see the index pass before getting more optimistic about a continued rally. First, I want to see higher volume during accumulation than I see during distribution. Second, the index needs to climb back above the 21d EMA to show its moving toward higher prices. Finally, I'd like the see the index make a higher weekly high and a higher weekly low to show a solid uptrend. Based on the daily chart, I'll set an expectation for sideways or higher on Monday. I think there is reason for caution here, but also don't want to be overly bearish or overly bullish and miss what's going on. I'll include this quote again from @MichaelGLamothe on twitter as its a good reminder to me: "I think it’s good to have a thesis about which way the market is going to move. The problem comes when we become too attached to it and want to be proven right. There’s tons of great reasons why the market will collapse & why it’ll blast off. Be open/ready for anything." Keep watching how stocks in your watchlist are performing compared to the movements in the market. The ones that have good relative strength are likely to be the ones to rally the most once the market resumes an uptrend. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 3/4Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (13d), 2/26 (5d) and today 3/4 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 4, 2021 Facts: -2.11%, Volume higher, Closing range: 33%, Body: 45% Good: Support at 12,550 area Bad: Rejected at 13,000, new low for year Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Red body in center of candle with upper and lower wicks from choppy session Advance/Decline: Over seven declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.34%), DJI (-1.11%), RUT (-2.76%), VIX (+7.12%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.39%) was the only sector with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.12%) and Technology (XLK -2.21%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The sky is not falling. But the market is! It can be confusing to see the news of reopening of economies around the US and world, positive signs of economic recovery, and yet to have the market be correcting at the same time. Thursday continued the market slide, caused by investor's fears that the economy will recover too fast and inflation will take off beyond the desired 2% that the fed targets, impacting negatively the valuations of mega-caps and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down another -2.11% on much more volume than the previous two sessions. The closing range was a little better at 33%, but still not great. The 45% red body sits in the middle of the candle with an upper wick created by a morning rally to 13,000 and a lower wick created by the afternoon dip to 12,550. The support at 12,550 was expected, but may be temporary. There were over seven declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the worst day as small cap stocks were sold off heavily. Relative to the other indexes, the small caps had not been impacted as much until today. The reckoning came as investors looked for more places to reduce exposure. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) also ended the day with declines as almost every segment and sector was hit with losses except Energy. The VIX volatility index continues to rise with a 7.12% gain today. Energy (XLE +2.39%) was the only sector with gains as OPEC decided to keep production steady, causing crude oil prices to advance. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.12%) and Technology (XLK -2.21%) were bottom for another day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced another +0.75%. That’s the highest level since November and is another factor on the valuations of large multi-national companies that dominate the indexes and are impacted by a stronger dollar. The stronger dollar makes exports more expensive and also devalues foreign subsidiary revenues as it's repatriated for reporting. Yields spikes again as US 30y and 10y treasury bonds. The 2y are also gained for the day. Comments by Jerome Powell were not enough to convince investors that inflation would remain under control, causing another sell-off in the bond market. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both dropped for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced on news that OPEC would keep production at current levels. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.803. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved slightly into the fear level. The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 65.37 as money managers reduce positions in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four big mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day with gains, advancing +1.12% and closing back above the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all declined for the day and are trading below both the 21d EMA and the 50d MA. The decline of these mega-caps will continue to pull the indexes down and influence overall market sentiment. Exxon Mobile (XOM), Alphabet, Chevron (CVX) and Facebook (FB) were the top performing mega-caps. Tesla (TSLA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML) and PayPal (PYPL) were at the bottom of the list. The energy stocks had a good day on the OPEC news. It's not clear to me why mega-caps in the Communication sector did well today. Only a few of the growth stocks tracked by the daily update had gains. Palantir (PLTR) gained 4.83%, possibly driven by retail trading. Moderna (MRNA) and Zoom Video (ZM) also ended the day with gains. Ehang Holdings dropped another -15.22% and is now almost 75% off its high set on 2/12. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data will be released in the morning. Today's data was slightly on the positive side but did not seem to impress investors. Big Lots (BIG) will report earnings before the market opens in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend-line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a +1.53% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a +0.86% gain. The last three days have seen a fairly consistent angle of descent in prices. If the one-day trend continues, that will mean a -3.26% decline tomorrow. The index broke through the 13,000 support area and tested the 12,550 area that also held in an early January dip. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. Yesterday, I showed the head and shoulders pattern on the Nasdaq chart. This pattern represents an attempt to move back to new highs that was rejected at a previous resistance point. Typically the height of the head is measured to determine the potential move downward that will occur as the price breaks below the neck line. The neck line was broken today and the measured move points to a previous support area around 11,800 - 12,000. That likely would not happen in a straight line. The reason to watch for it is not to overreact to bounces along the way. For example, it would not be unexpected for tomorrow to have gains in the index and then have a further downward move on Monday. Wait for your market rules to kick in, such as regaining the 21d EMA on higher volume. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq is in official correction territory now with the close being 10% below the all-time high. The other major indexes have a bit to go for the official mark, but are also reacting to an overwhelming amount of selling pressure. There is a general sense that this is not over and selling could continue into next week or longer. However, I'll quote @MichaelGLamothe on twitter: "I think it’s good to have a thesis about which way the market is going to move. The problem comes when we become too attached to it and want to be proven right. There’s tons of great reasons why the market will collapse & why it’ll blast off. Be open/ready for anything." Keep engaged. Work on your watchlist, filling it with stocks that are doing better relative to other stocks, even in a decline. Many of those stocks will be the best opportunities when the market finds a bottom and moves up again. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 3/3Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (12d), 2/25 (5d) and today 3/3 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 3, 2021 Facts: -2.7%, Volume higher, Closing range: 1%, Body: 90% Good: 13,000 just barely holding on Bad: Higher volume selling day shows institutional distribution Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Tiny upper wick created at open, thick red body with no lower wick Advance/Decline: More than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.31%), DJI (-0.39%), RUT (-1.06%), VIX (+10.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.47%) and Financials (XLF +0.78%) were the top sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.35%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market continued its retreat on Wednesday with another session of selling that was shared broadly across the indexes. Only a few cyclical sectors were able to hang onto gains for the day as investors moved from high priced big tech and consumer discretionary stocks to recovery stocks expected to benefit from the economic recovery. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.70% loss on higher volume, marking a clear distribution day for the index. For a second day in a row, the index sold off for most of the day, producing a thick red body with no visible lower wick. The closing range was 1% and the red body covers 90% of the candle. Over two stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) faired the best for the day, declining only -0.39%. It was held up by strong performances in Energy, Finance and Industrials. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -1.31% and the Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.06%. The VIX volatility index rose +10.66%. Energy (XLE +1.47%) and Financials (XLF +0.78%) were the top sectors. Industrials (XLI +0.11%) was the only other sector with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.35%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%) were bottom. Communications (XLC -1.43%) also lost more than the overall index. These sectors have heavy weight mega-cap players that are leading the way down for the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.22%. Yields for the US 30y, 10y and 2y all rose for the day, returning fears to investors' minds on the impact of higher interest rates to big tech and growth companies. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both dropped for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced despite inventories being higher than expected. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. Copper gave back nearly all of its gains from yesterday. Aluminum declined just slightly compared to yesterday's huge gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.719. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the neutral level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of the big four mega-caps had losses for a second day. Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only of the big four above the 21d EMA, but moved below the line today. Microsoft (MSFT) also hit a significant level, moving below its 40d MA. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) have both been trading below the two levels for the past two weeks. Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) led the mega-caps with +2.50% and 1.93% gains. These big banks are expected to benefit from the higher bond yields driving higher interest rates. PayPal (PYPL), Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The only growth stock tracked by this daily update to end the day in the positive was Alibaba with a +0.79% advance. The hardest hit were Fiverr (FVRR), Esty (ETSY), Grow Generation (GRWG) and Moderna (MRNA), all with greater than 10% losses for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Games, Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity data released tomorrow before market open will add to today's narrative around the slowing recovery. Either it will boost confidence or add to worries that maybe the economic recovery is slowing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in early afternoon. Thursday's earnings reports will include Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), Kroger (KR), Burlington Stores (BURL), Gap (GPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line is pointing to a +2.36% gain for tomorrow. The index is at the lower line of the five-day regression trend channel. The trend-lien from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a +0.60% gain for tomorrow. If the one-day and two-day trends continue, then another -1.60% decline can be expected tomorrow. The index is sitting just a hair below 13,000 right now. If there is further downside, the 12,550 area also held in an early January dip. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. There is a head and shoulders pattern on the Nasdaq chart. This pattern represents an attempt to move back to new highs that was rejected at a previous resistance point. Generally speaking, the height of the head is measured to determine the potential move downward that will occur as the price breaks below the neck line. That points to a previous support area around 11,800 - 12,000. That likely would not happen in a straight line. The reason to watch for it is not to overreact to bounces along the way. Wait for your market rules to kick in, such as regaining the 21d EMA on higher volume. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's tough to watch the market retreat and worry about where it might find the bottom. It's important for my daily homework to not try to predict the movements. Rather we look at the chart and set some expectations so we can act following the set of trading rules that work for me. You should also have a set of rules that work for your trading style and risk tolerance. The market followed thru with the expectation we set yesterday of lower. Today, the expectation is still set for sideways or lower. We'll look for an expectation breaker as a positive development, especially if the 13,000 area support holds. Stay healthy and trade safe!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
28
Daily Market Update for 3/2Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (11d), 2/24 (5d) and today 3/2 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 2, 2021 Facts: -1.69%, Volume lower, Closing range: 3%, Body: 97% Good: Stayed above 50d MA Bad: All red body, no visible upper/lower wicks, back below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Marubozu black candle with no wicks, all red body, outside day Advance/Decline: More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.81%), DJI (-0.46%), RUT (-1.93%), VIX (+3.21%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +0.56%) only gaining sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.15%) and Technology (XLK -1.59%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market gave up half of yesterday's gains in a continuation of two weeks of choppiness as investors await a stimulus bill that will have both positive and negative impacts on equities. Today's expectation breaker after yesterday's session requires a deeper look to understand. Investment has been rotating in and out of Consumer Discretionary and Technology for the past two weeks. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -1.69% decline on lower volume. The 97% red body with no visible upper and lower wick forms a Marubozu (shaven head) candlestick. The 3% of lower wick was formed in just the last few minutes of trading as most of the day was dominated by selling. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) lost -0.81% and -0.46%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) turned in the worst performance of the day with a -1.93% decline. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.21% Materials (XLB) was the only gaining sector with a +0.56% advance. Also near the top of the sector list, but with a small loss, was Industrials (XLI) which declined -0.29%. Both sectors are likely to benefit from infrastructure projects planned to boost economic recovery. The bottom two sectors were also the only two to underperform the SPX. They were Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.15%) and Technology (XLK -1.59%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.25%. Yields on the 30y treasury bonds remained about the same while the 10y yields dropped. The 2y treasury bond yields remained flat. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both dropped for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced slightly after declining yesterday. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced considerably, moving up alongside the performance in the Materials sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped slightly to 0.578 as investors moved back to a bullish level. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is lower than the previous day, but still in the greed range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of the big four mega-caps had losses for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the only of the four trading above the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) closed below the 21d EMA, but is still trading above the 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are trading below both lines and their 21d EMA is below the 50d MA as they continue to look bearish. AT&T (T), Coca-Cola (KO) were among a short list of mega-caps that had gains for the day. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list -4.45%, down 20% from yesterday's intraday high. Square (SQ) and Dr Horton (DHI) were the only two growth stocks for the daily update with gains, advancing +4.65% and 1.47%. NIO (NIO) dropped -13.0% after a disappointing earnings release. Zoom Video (ZM) dropped -9.00% after gapping up and then giving up 15% in intraday selling. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is an OPEC Meeting scheduled for tomorrow that will impact crude oil prices and likewise the energy sector. Crude Oil Inventories will also be released later in the day. The weekly stock numbers released today were higher than expected. Non-farm Employment data before market open will give an update on the labor market. Just after the market opens, Services and Non-Manufacturing purchasing data will give a heads up on activity levels for the two sectors. Wednesday's earnings reports include Snowflake (SNOW), Okta (OKTA), Marvell (MRVL), Splunk (SPLK), and Dollar Tree (DLTR). Check the companies in your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line is pointing to a +0.65% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points toa -0.39% while the trend-line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a -1.52% loss. Both of those moves would put the index back below the 50d MA. If there is further downside, the index held the 13,000 area as support in the previous two weeks. The 12,550 area also held in an early January dip. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Looking at Monday and Tuesday, it seems like another choppy week is ahead. Today was dominated by selling, and with a thick red bodied candle, the expectation tomorrow has to be for Lower. Since there is support at the 50d MA, we can also expect a Sideways move. If there is a positive expectation breaker, then a gain on higher volume that takes the index back above the 21d EMA would provide confidence in a rally attempt. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 3/1Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (10d), 2/23 (5d) and today 3/1 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 1, 2021 Facts: +3.01%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: 78% Good: Strong buying throughout day, close above 21d EMA Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with short upper/lower wicks, slightly longer lower wick Advance/Decline: More than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.38%), DJI (+1.95%), RUT (+3.37%), VIX (-16.46%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +3.22%) and Financials (XLF +3.13%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Monday kicked off the week with an upside reversal from last week's downtrend. A small gap up was closed early in the session that was dominated by buying the rest of the day. The gains were large and broad across the market as manufacturing data released in the morning was better than expected. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +3.01% gain. Volume was lower than Friday. The closing range of 97% represented the buying that continued into close after gains throughout the day created a 78% green body. More than three stocks gained for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) returned to the top of the index list with a +3.37% gain on optimism for stimulus to soon pass through congress. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +2.38%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +1.95%. Most importantly, all of the major indexes closed back above their 21d EMA, a key line for support and resistance. The VIX volatility index dropped -16.46% after gaining over 26% last week. All sectors gained for the day with Technology (XLK +3.22%) and Financials (XLF +3.13%) leading the list. Energy led for half the session before dropping back behind the other sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) were the worst performing. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.14%. Yields on 30y treasury bonds gained while 10y yields stayed about even. 2y treasury yields dropped for a second day after spiking last Thursday. Prices on High Yields Corporate Bonds (HYG) rose for the day will Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bonds dropped slightly. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.823. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the Greed side but not yet Extreme Greed. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of the big four mega-caps closed the day with gains. Unlike Friday's gains, today's gains look more bullish, albeit the volume is lower. Microsoft (MSFT) closed back above the 21d EMA, joining Alphabet (GOOGL) which had recovered the line on Friday. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still trading below both the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap of the day with a 6.26% gain. Apple, PayPal (PYPL) and Exxon Mobile (XOM) round out the top four mega-caps. Most mega-caps gained for the day. All of the growth stocks I track for the daily update had gains for the day. Digital Turbine (APPS) was the big winner with a 14.74% gain, nearly climbing back to its all-time high. Grow Generation (GRWG), Draft Kings (DKNG) and Etsy (ETSY) were other growth stock with greater than 10% gains. Zoom Video (ZM) is up +8.60% after hours, providing a strong earnings beat and guidance for 2021 in their earnings update. NIO (NIO) and Lemonade (LMND) both were down after hours, disappointing investors with their earnings report. NIO had a greater loss than expected, despite strong revenue. Lemonade did not provide a strong outlook. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not a lot of economic news scheduled for Tuesday. FOMC Members Brainard and Daly are scheduled to speak in the afternoon. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released after market close. Tuesday earnings releases will include Sea (SE), Target (TGT), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Ross Stores (ROST), and Kopin (KOPN). Check the companies in your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend line points to a +4.39% gain for Tuesday. That's still well below the 14,000 area where possibly the index would find resistance. The five-day trend line points to a -1.06% loss. The index closed in the upper half of the five-day regression trend channel. A return to the center of the channel would put the index back in the middle of the 21d EMA and 50d MA. The trend-line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a -3.42% loss that puts the index back below the 50d MA and above the 13,000 support area. If there is further downside, the index held the 12,550 area in an early January dip. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The downward trend and indecisive Friday made the expectation for today of Sideways or Lower, but with the hopes for an expectation breaker. We got that expectation breaker today thanks to positive news over the weekend on the stimulus as well as signs that treasury bond yields had topped and would come back down. The US Dollar also strengthened considerably against other currencies, thanks to a positive outlook on the US economy and controlled inflation. Expectation for tomorrow is a continuation and move higher. If that doesn't happen, then we'll take another look for indications on why not. Another positive gain, but with more volume would be a confidence booster. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 2/26Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (9d), 2/22 (5d) and today 2/26 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 26, 2021 Facts: +0.56%, Volume lower, Closing range: 49%, Body: 12% Good: Successful test of 13,000 again Bad: Lower high, lower low, indecisive spinning top candle, close below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in the middle of candle, long upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.48%), DJI (-1.50%), RUT (+0.04%), VIX (-3.25%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.42%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.37%) and Financials (XLF -1.91%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A week dominated by selling ended with a day of indecision. Investor fears of inflation were lifted a bit by economic data that showed inflation might not be as accelerated as thought. Consumer sentiment numbers rose. Personal spending was lower than expected. That resulted in rising treasury bond yields to back off a bit and the US Dollar to strengthen. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.56% gain on lower volume. The thin 12% body is in the middle of a candle with longer upper and lower wicks. The closing range very near to the open and in the center of the candle at 49% shows as a spinning top candle. The candle is a sign of indecision as both the bulls and the bears had moments throughout the trading session without a winner. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only other major index to close with a gain, and it was small at just +0.04%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.48% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -1.50%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.25% but is still at an elevated level. The sector list shows rotation back into some of the sectors that suffered earlier in the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) moved back to the top, after living at the bottom most of the week. They gained +0.53% and +0.42% respectively. Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) moved to the bottom of the list. It's not necessary for them to lead in a rally, but it doesn't help a bull case having them at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained a surprise +0.88% on a lower inflation outlook. Yields on 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bonds all dropped for the day. The 2y yield dropped %28 after spiking %41 yesterday. The downside reversal in treasury bond yields is a welcome change for investors of big tech and growth stocks. The lower treasury bond yields did not help High Yield (HYG) corporate bonds. Prices on these bonds continued to fall while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices gained. The signal is still caution as investors will continue to watch the bond market closer as next week unfolds. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Gold declined over 2%, partially driven by the strengthening dollar. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. This is a character change from the bullish outlook the commodities were signaling the past few weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.810 as fear starts to work its way into the market. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved more toward fear and is exactly neutral at Friday's close. The weekly NAAIM exposure index declined to 85 as money managers reduced positions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of the big four mega-caps closed the day with gains, but none of them were particularly bullish days, giving up gains as the market came to a close. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.22% and +0.30%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) did a little better with +1.17% and +1.48% gains, both showing indecisive sessions. Only Alphabet is trading above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Microsoft is stuck in the middle of the two key moving average lines. Semiconductors made a bit of a comeback with Nvidia (NVDA) leading the mega-cap list with a +3.06% gain. PayPal (PYPL) was second, advancing +2.33%. Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) led the Financials sector lower with -3.40% and -2.65% losses. The market was pricing in higher yields having a positive impact on big banks, but now is repricing with a new outlook. Digital Turbine (APPS) and Etsy (ETSY) led growth stocks higher with 14.08% and +11.48% gains. AirBnb (ABNB) also gained +13.34%. A newer growth stock, Fisker (FSR), got a lot of attention this week and rose +32.07% in today's session. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will start with Manufacturing data before market opens that provides a lens on how much activity is being generated by greater demand for goods. It will be another week of must-watch earnings reports. Monday will kick off with Zoom Video (ZM), MercadoLibre (MELI), Nio (NIO), Lemonade (LMND). Watch for how the market reacts to positive news from any of these reports. A negative reaction to a positive report can be a big signal of investor sentiment in a choppy market. Also check the companies in your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend line points to a +1.29% gain for Monday that would put the index back above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to another -0.43% loss for the start of next week. The longer trend-line from the 2/16 all-time high points to a -1.02% declined for Monday. That would be right above the 13,000 support area. If there is further downside, the index held the 12,550 area in an early January dip. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Happy we made it to the Weekend? You are not alone. The expectation for today was to go lower and so a bit of a sideways move that resulted in a small gain for the Nasdaq is welcome. However, the market gave no indication that confidence in the rally had been restored. It was an indecisive day in a downtrend that could end here, or continue. That creates some weekend homework. Take a close look at positions in your portfolio. How are each performing in the context of the pullback? Which ones are acting relatively well and maybe you are willing to take a bit further draw down to protect the positions? Which ones are not acting well and should be trimmed or sold outright? If the market does reverse and move up next week, what stocks should be in your watch list? What's your plan for timing and starting those positions? Where should you add to existing positions at the dip? Most of all, there are plenty of signals to keep a cautious approach to the market. Expectation is set for sideways or lower for Monday. Let's hope for an expectation breaker! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
11
Daily Market Update for 2/24Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (7d), 2/18 (5d) and today 2/24 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 24, 2021 Facts: +0.99%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: 62% Good: Another quick test at the 50d MA before climbing the rest of the day Bad: Not much Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body at top of the candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.99, 2 advancing stocks for every declinging stock Indexes: SPX (+1.14%), DJI (+1.35%), RUT (+2.38%), VIX (-7.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.54%) and Financials (XLF +1.94%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.06%) and Utilities (XLU -1.17%) Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Thank you Jerome Powell. Fears of inflation gave way to more bullish sentiment as investors anticipate a new round of stimulus coming soon. The tech sector stopped it's multiple day decent and all of the major indexes turned in gains for the day. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.99% gain. The confirmation of yesterday's bullish reversal candle resulted in a higher high and a higher low after the index successfully tested the 50d MA in the morning. The 97% closing range and 62% green body sit above a longer lower wick that result from a brief morning dip. Two stocks advanced for every declining stock. All of the major indexes had gains with very bullish candlesticks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the top sector with a +2.38% gain. The S&P 500 gained +1.14% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.35%. The VIX volatility index declined -7.66%. The top sectors were Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) with +3.54% and +1.94% gains. The welcome change in the sector list is to see Technology (XLK) with a positive day, gaining +1.53% and outperforming the broader SPX index. Also reassuring is to see the defensive play sector Utilities (XLU) move back to the bottom of the list with a -1.17% loss. The only other losing sector was Consumer Staples (XLP) with a -0.06% decline. Industrials (XLI) got a boost from higher than expected New Home sales, advancing +1.89%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.12%. Yields on 30y, 20y and 10y treasury bonds all rose for the day. Investors have been negatively reacting to the rising yields because of possible addition of an interest rate hike would depress big tech and growth stocks. However Jerome Powell's comments during congressional testimony have seemed to ease those fears. Both High Yield (HYG) corporate bonds and Investor Grade (LQD) corporate bonds prices advanced for the day. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced despite Crude Oil inventories being higher than expected. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. Bullish! -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dipped all the way to 0.503, an overly bullish level. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved more to the greedy side but still not in the extreme greed range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both advanced for the day while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined. Apple and Amazon are both trading below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple's 21d EMA crossed under the 50d MA which is viewed as a downtrend signal. Microsoft is trading under the 21d EMA but above the 50d MA. The continuation of a rally will be much easier of these big four mega-caps are all participating. Tesla (TSLA) reversed more than two weeks of declines with a +6.18% gain today. Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) were also top mega-cap gainers with +4.82% and +3.45% gains. The majority of mega-caps ended the day with gains. Retailers Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with losses. Growth stocks had a great day. Upwork (UPWK) soared gaining over 20% on smashing earnings expectations, but gave up most of the gain to end the day with a +3.45% advance. Ehang Holdings (EH), SUMO logic (SUMO) and Enphase (ENPH) were big gainers for the day. Not all growth stocks were winners. Digital Turbine (APPS), Chewy (CHWY) and Square (SQ) were at the bottom. Square gave up -7.51% after investors reacted negatively to their cryptocurrency investments and returns for the business only amounting to 2% margins. GameStop (GME) sucked the oxygen out of the room again with a 103.94% gain and continues to move up afterhours, now over 90%. The casino is still open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Durable Goods Orders, GDP for Q4 and Initial Jobless Claims will all be released tomorrow before market open. Pending Home Sales will be released after the opening bell. Several FOMC Members will speak tomorrow throughout the day. There comments can help reaffirm Jerome Powell's testimony. Thursday will add to the tsunami of earnings reports this week with Salescore.com (CRM), Anheuser Busch (BUD), MercadoLibre (MELI), Moderna (MRNA), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), DoorDask (DASK), Vmware (VMW), Dell (DELL), Zscaler (ZS), Wayfair (W), Etsy (ETSY), Plug Power (PLUG), Farfetch (FTCH), Vipshop (VIPS), Novocure (NVCR), Beyond Meat (BYND), the list just keeps going. Be sure to check the companies in your portfolio for upcoming earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance I removed the long-term trend line I've been using since the 10/30 bottom. It no longer seems relevant as a regression trend channel. I added a trend line from the 2/16 high. 2/23 will become a low if the index continues higher this week. The one-day trend line is pointing to a +1.86% gain that would get the index back above the 21d EMA. The trend from the 2/26 all-time high and the five-day trend line point to a -2.58% decline. That would rest the index just below the 50d moving average. If there is further downside, the 13,000 level has proven to be a support area. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's good to see the Nasdaq, and the market, have a bullish day after yesterday's dip below the 50d MA and test of the 13,000 support area. With a hammer candlestick yesterday, followed by a positive candle today, we can be optimistic about further upside. However, nothing is guaranteed until it's confirmed by the market. The expectation for tomorrow is set for higher. If we have an expectation breaker, that will mean a closer look to see what now is bothering investors. Until then, remain cautious but optimistic! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
8
Daily Market Update for 2/23Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (78d), 2/16 top (6d), 2/17 (5d) and today 2/23 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 23, 2021 Facts: -0.5%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 39% Good: Support at 13,000, successful retest at 50d MA, close in upper half of range Bad: Gap down and 50d MA violation to morning low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body in upper half of candle with longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.31, 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.13%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-0.88%), VIX (-1.45%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.65%) and Utilities (XLU +0.83%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.28%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.66%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Nerves of steel. That's what it took to keep your eyes on the market today. The Nasdaq opened up with a gap down and pierced below the 50d MA to reach the intraday low within 10 minutes of open. It finally found support at the 13,000 area and made a climb back above the 50d MA. After a retest of that area, it was finally able to climb to an afternoon high before pulling back slightly into close. The index closed with a -0.5% loss which is better than where you might have expected to end up from the morning action. The volume was higher than the previous day and a long lower wick formed under a 39% green body that led to an 88% closing range. The candlestick almost resembles a bullish reversal hammer, but the body is a little thick for a perfect pattern. Still, the spirit of the hammer candlestick, that the market maybe found a bottom, is still represented in the intraday pattern. There were 3 declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 closed in the positive with a +0.13% gain after testing it's 50d MA and forming a long lower shadow candle. You might not believe it, so go look, but the Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI) set a new all-time high before settling back for a +0.05% gain at close. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed with a -0.88% decline. The VIX volatility index ended the day with a -1.45% decline. The sectors followed a similar pattern to the previous day with one notable change. Utilities (XLU) moved from the bottom to the second place spot with +0.83% gain, behind Energy (XLE) which led the sector list with a +1.65% advance. The cyclical stocks all had gains again and 8 out of the 11 SPDR sector ETFs ended the day with gains. Technology (XLK -0.66%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.28%) were at the bottom for another day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.18%. Yields on the 30y treasury bond rose just +0.17% while 10y treasury bond yields dropped. 2y treasury bond yields rose, tightening the spread between long term and short term bonds. Both High Yield (HYG) corporate bonds and Investor Grade (LQD) corporate bonds prices advanced for the day. The spread been corporate bonds and treasury bonds remains about even over the past few weeks. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.632. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) were able to pull out gains after taking dips early in the day. Amazon is trading below its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet dipped below its 21d EMA but closed about even with the key indicator line. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) both declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) is below both moving average lines while Microsoft is below the 21d EMA but above the 50d MA. The rest of the mega-caps did a little better than yesterday. Mastercard (MA) topped the list with a +2.87% gain. Walt Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX) and Facebook (FB) round out the top four mega-cap gainers. At the bottom of the list was Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PayPal (PYPL) and Home Depot (HD), all dropping more than 3%. Growth stocks also did a little better. SNAP (SNAP) rose 11.10% after a wild session that had a trading range of 30%. Digital Turbine (APPS), Pinterest (PINS) and Twitter (TWTR) all did well as the communication stocks seemed to get a boost today. UP Fintech (TIGR) had another day of declines. Magnite (MGNI) was another popular growth stock with a big decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday will bring New Home Sales data for January as well as an update on Crude Oil Inventories. Those are schedule for aftermarket open. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will continue his testimony before congress. Earnings reports will include Nvidia (NVDA), Lowe's (LOW), TJX (TJX), Teladoc (TDOC), Magnite (MGNI) and many others. Be sure to check the companies in your portfolio for upcoming earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is in the bottom half of the long-term regression trend channel. The trend lines I draw are the mid-point of the channels. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +4.92% gain. That seems unlikely, and would need to push past resistance at the 21d EMA and the 14,000 support/resistance area. The one-day trend line is pointing to a +1.79% advance. The five-day and six-day trend line points to decline of -1.43%. That would rest the index right above the 50d moving average. The index violated the 50d MA line today, but then recovered. After a morning high, it retested the 50d MA and found support. So it is reasonable to expect support here again. The 13,000 level also seems provided support for the index today. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market followed-thru with yesterday's expectation for lower today. It moved lower, found support at 13,000 and then bounced off to regain ground before close. The hammer style candle-stick appears to mark a local bottom but the market will have to confirm that tomorrow. There was certainly some fear in the market as it opened in the morning. But those fears were put aside as Jerome Powell insisted that we not worry about inflation and the fed monetary policy would remain the same. Cyclical stocks remain the leaders. The result is another day of rotation, although it may feel like a correction. There is reason to be cautious, but no reason to be fearful. The expectation is set for sideways or higher based on the candle. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
8