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Daily Market Update for 2/19 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (76d), 2/12 (5d) and today 2/19 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 19, 2021 Facts: +0.07%, Volume higher, Closing range: 22%, Body: 38% Good: Higher high, lower low Bad: Morning gains lost in afternoon selling, low closing range and red body Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body in lower half of candle with longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.67, 3 advancing stocks for every two declining Indexes: SPX (-0.19%), DJI (-0.0%), RUT (+2.18%), VIX (+1.96%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.83%) and Energy (XLE +1.67%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.26%) and Utilities (XLU -1.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was day for almost everyone but the mega-caps. Gainers outnumbered losers at more than a three to two ratio. But the mega-caps, especially in tech, lost ground while the rest of the market advanced. Equal weighted QQQE gained +0.36% while the cap weighted QQQ lost -0.44%. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.07% gain on higher volume. The candle has a longer upper wick over a 38% red body and a dismal 22% range that was created from morning gains being sold off in the afternoon. There were over three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 showed up big after bouncing off its 21d exponential moving average and advancing +2.18% for today. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.19% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) remained flat. The VIX volatility index dropped -1.96%. Utilities (XLU -1.49%) moved back to the bottom of the sector list after topping the list yesterday. Moving to the top were cyclical sectors Materials (XLB +1.83%) and Industrials (XLI +1.64%). Energy (XLE +1.67%) also moved back to the top just behind Materials. The final cyclical sector, Financials (XLF +1.19%), was in fourth place. Having these sectors at the top is a great sign for a recovering economy. They at the bottom during the March 2020 crash. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.25%. Yields on the 20y, 10y and 2y treasury bonds all rose for the day. The spread between long term and short term bonds widened back to high levels not seen since 2015. High Yield (HYG) corporate bonds remained flat while Investor Grade (LQD) corporate bonds prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -2.54%. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) made a huge jump of +5.30%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Analysts are predicting a big shortage of copper as economic activity returns and makes up for previous low activity. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.575. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) was the only of the biggest four mega-caps to advance but it was only a +0.12% gain. Amazon (AMZN) saw the largest decline with a -2.35% returning to the weekly open price after three days of gains. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.16% and -0.81%. Amazon moved back below its 21d EMA while Apple continues to trade below both the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Mega-caps had few big winners for the day. Intel Corp (INTC) and ASML Holdings (ASML) topped the list with greater than 2% gains. At the bottom of the list was Facebook (FB) with a -2.91% loss. Growth stocks did much better for the day. Palantir (PLTR) had a massive gain with a +15.22% advance. Chinese fintech companies Up Fintech (TIGER) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) gained +11.33% and +10.41%. Magnite (MGNI) also had a big gain, moving up +8.65%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Next week will be a busy one for earnings with many popular growth stocks reporting as well as some big tech. Monday will be a somewhat slow start though with only Berkshire (BRKa) being of much interest to this daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is in the bottom half of the long-term regression trend channel. The trend lines I draw are the mid-point of the channels. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.73% gain. The five-day trend line points to a decline of -0.67%. The one-day trend line is just below that point. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -1.03% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Manufacturing and Services data in the morning was positive as well as a surprise in Existing Home Sales data. That was enough for the market to have a bullish morning, but not enough to keep those gains in the afternoon. As the economy begins to heat up, investors are getting more nervous about what the stimulus will do to inflation and eventually interest rates. Fed's Rosengren reinforced the need for the larger package to return the economy and full employment back to pre-pandemic levels. However, what's good for the economy may not be good for your favorite companies. The market has spent the week pricing in the expected impact of higher inflation. Although that has meant some pullback, it hasn't caused a mass run for the exits. As sellers cool off, there is a good possibility for more growth in the coming weeks. Have a great weekend! Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 2/18 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (75d), 2/11 (5d) and today 2/18 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 18, 2021 Facts: -0.72%, Volume lower, Closing range: 79%, Body: 26% Good: Support at 21d EMA, turned into upside for rest of day Bad: Another morning sell-off, and the selling into close. Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body in upper half of candle with a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.27, almost 4 declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.44%), DJI (-0.38%), RUT (-1.67%), VIX (+4.60%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.60%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.04%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.26%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Today produced a very similar candle to the day before, and another step back for the Nasdaq. The market opened again reacting to bad economic news, selling heavily in the morning. However, buyers came in as the index hit the 21d exponential moving average. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.72% loss on lower volume. The similar candle to the day before had another high closing range over a long lower wick. The upper wick is slightly longer due to the selling just before close. The closing range was 79% and the green body in the upper half covers 26% of the candle. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. All of the major indexes were down for the day as losses were shared much more broadly then the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.44%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined the most with a -1.67% loss. The VIX volatility index rose +4.60%. In the biggest change from earlier in the week, Utilities (XLU +0.60%) rose to the top of the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.04%) was the second sector. However, the other defensive play sector Real Estate (XLRE -0.05%) was not too far behind. All other sectors declined for the day. Energy (XLE -2.26%) and Health Services (-0.63%) were the bottom two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.39%. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose while the 2y yields dropped for the day. The spread between long term and short term bonds widened slightly. High Yield (HYG) and Investor Grade (LQD) corporate bonds prices both declined. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds tightened a bit. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just -0.09%. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.667 as investors became much more cautious for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The NAAIM exposure index (measured on Wednesdays) is still above 100 showing money managers are still fully into leveraged positions in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) is continuing to show strength against the market with another gain today while the indexes lost. The stock advanced +0.59%. The other big four lost for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.60% but both remain well above their key moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) continued to move farther below the 50d MA with a -0.86% decline. Coca-Cola (KO) was the top mega-cap of the day gaining +1.28% after announcing a 2.4% increase in their annual dividend. Visa (V), Proctor & Gamble (PG) and Nike (NKE) were other top mega-cap gainers. Walmart (WMT) declined -6.48% after releasing earnings before market open. They had record revenue but then missed on adjusted earnings. It was another tough day for growth stocks. Twilio (TWL) was a highlight with a 7.73% gain after smashing expectations in their earnings release the day before. Fastly (FSLY) dropped -15.45% despite beating expectations on earnings and revenue. The company provided guidance for 2021 that disappointed investors. RIOT Blockchain Inc pulled back -20% from meteoric climb the previous seven days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services purchasing managers index data will be released right as the market opens on Friday. The two measures will give insight into the economic activity among these two sectors. Existing Home Sales data will be released mid-morning. FOMC members will make comments tomorrow morning and the Fed Monetary Policy Report will be released. There are no earnings reports tomorrow that are relevant for the Daily Market Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is in the bottom half of the long-term regression trend channel. The trend lines I draw are the mid-point of the channels. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.61% gain. The one-day trend line is pointing to a +1.03% advance. The five-day trend line points to a decline of -0.42%. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -1.24% below Thursday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you look at the weekly chart for the Nasdaq, it's an interesting spot that we are heading into the last day of the week. Looking back two weeks there is a long bullish green candle. Then last week started with a gap-up on Monday's open. Right now, the index sits in the middle of that gap. The bears would love to fill that gap with solid red while the bulls would like to leave the gap empty. The biggest character change for today was the rise of Utilities to the top of the sector list. That and the rise in the put/call ratio show the nervousness in the market. The last two days I wrote an expectation for Sideways or Higher based on the strong afternoon buy backs. It seems one of those weeks where the market goes the opposite of expectations each day. So today I'm writing in an expectation of Sideways or Lower. If it goes higher tomorrow, you can thank me. :) Stay healthy and trade safe!

Updated

Daily Market Update for 2/17 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (74d), 2/10 (5d) and today 2/17 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 17, 2021 Facts: -0.58%, Volume lower, Closing range: 94%, Body: 31% Good: Mid-day reversal off lows to close near the day's high at end of session Bad: Gap-down open and below the 14,000 support line Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body in upper half of candle with a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.46, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.03%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (-0.74%), VIX (+0.19%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.58%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Higher than expected Retail Sales data was enough for Amazon, but not enough to excite the overall market in the morning hours of trading. The higher than expected producer price index data forecasts upcoming inflation. That expected rise in inflation brings up the question of whether the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than previously stated. Higher interest rates tend to impact high growth companies and technology companies the most. The result was a gap-down and morning sell-off of the tech heavy Nasdaq. Fears began to subside with reassurances from FOMC members comments throughout the day and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes in the afternoon. Those minutes stated that the committee unanimously agreed to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. That brought the Nasdaq back up to close near the high of the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.58% loss on lower volume. The closing range of 94% resulted from a 31% green body that is above a long lower wick. That long lower wick was formed in the morning sell-off. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was able to set another new all-time high and close with a +0.29% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) was about even with a -0.03% loss. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing index of the day with a -0.74% decline. The VIX volatility index rose +0.19%. Energy (XLE +1.49%) was the top sector again as Crude Oil prices continue to surge, now because of the weather events in the southern US putting a squeeze on oil and gas supplies. The Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.58%) sector was the second best performer, benefiting from the high retail sales data. The worst performing sectors were Industrials (XLI -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced with a +0.49% gain after staying most even for over a week. The US 30y, 10y and 2y yields all dropped for the day. The spread between long term and short term bonds tightened. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices increased. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds remained about the same. Silver (SILVER) advanced slightly while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) resumed its climb with another advance. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) mad a big advance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.525. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) led much of the market down early in the session as it gapped below its 50d moving average and sank even lower before catching some support and closing just below the key moving average line. The sell-off could have come from the revelation that Warren Buffet sold 9.81 million shares in Q4 of 2020. The other big four mega-caps all had gains for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.21% while Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.38%. Amazon (AMZN) had the best day of the four with a +1.21% gain on the retail sales data momentum. Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) led mega-caps with a 5.24% and 2.07% gain. PayPal (PYPL), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) were some of the biggest decliners among the mega-caps. Growth stocks had a challenging day as investors feared the possibility of higher inflation leading to higher interest rates. It wasn't a bad day for all growth stocks. Ehang Holdings (EH) bounced off it's 50d moving average to gain 67.88% after losing 62% in the prior session. The blockchain stock RIOT (RIOT) put in another 30% gain. The stock has risen 230% in the last seven sessions. Twilio (TWLO) was up over 11% in afterhours trading after releasing an earnings update that crushed expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will start Building Permits and Housing Starts data before market open. Initial Jobless Claims will also get an update. Finally, Manufacturing Index data released before the market will provide a view on the level of economic activity. After market open, Crude Oil Inventories will be released and are likely to be lower than expectations. That would continue to pump up crude oil futures and the energy sector. Walmart (WMT) will be an important earnings release to watch for before market open tomorrow. Fiverr (FVRR) is also scheduled to release before the market opens. Roku (ROKU) and Dropbox (DBX) will release after market close. Check the stocks in your portfolio for earnings releases to make sure you are caught by surprise. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +0.72% gain. The one-day trend line is just below that at a +0.42% advance. The five-day trend line points to sideways move ending with a +0.07% gain. That would put the index just below the 14,000 support/resistance area. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line also offers an area of support and is -2% below Wednesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an expectation breaker to see the index gap-down below the 14,000 line in the morning. However, it's important to give the market some time to digest economic data and news and then find the direction. In today's case that happened around mid-day and the market started to make gains again after investor worries subsided. The past week as had the presence of both bears and bulls and today was no different. The past two days have gone to the bears, but there are still indications of confidence and strength among the different market indicators in the daily market update. Still investors seem to be fickle with news and so keeping an eye on position sizes and risk levels is important. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 2/16 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (73d), 2/9 (5d) and today 2/16 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 16, 2021 Facts: -0.34%, Volume higher, Closing range: 29%, Body: 58% Good: Higher high, lower low, new ATH Bad: Could not hold the morning high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body with slightly longer lower wick than upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.84, slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (+.20%), RUT (-0.72%), VIX (+7.4%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Financials (XLF +1.71%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) and Utilities (XLU -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The week opened with all-time highs, but the market could not hold on to those highs. After the first hour of trading, the indexes dropped going into mid-day and then spent the afternoon trading in back and forth choppiness. Despite declines, the major indexes put in higher highs and higher lows for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.34% decline on slightly higher volume. The closing range of 29% is not great, but is above a low which is higher than Friday's low. The 58% body was formed from the opening gap up and quick sell-off in the morning. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing of the indexes with a -0.72% decline. It's also the only index that did not make a new all-time high today. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.06% while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.20%. The VIX volatility index rose +7.46%. Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Financials (XLF +1.03%) were the top sectors again. Likewise, Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) and Utilities (XLU -1.12%) were again the bottom sectors. Both are positive signals for the market. Energy and Financials sector gains are being led by optimism for the economic recovery. Energy is expected to benefit from high demand of recovering transportation sectors. Financials is seen to benefit from higher yields on bonds. Real Estate and Utilities tend to be defensive plays for money managers who need to stay invested in equities. So seeing them at the bottom of the list is another signal of confidence. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained steady with a +0.03% gain. The US 30y, 10y and 2y yields all climbed for the day. The spread between long term and short term bonds continues to widen. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined for the day but remained high compared to Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices which declined more. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds widened as investors seek out the riskier asset classes for better returns. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly after an accelerated rise since the beginning of February. Timber (WOOD) continued to advance. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined slightly. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.535. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved more to the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four biggest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced for the day, gaining +0.75%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.53% and -0.27%. Apple (AAPL) had the worst decline, losing -1.61%. Both Amazon and Apple are trading below the 21d exponential moving average. Salesforce.com (CRM), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Bank of America (BAC) and Nvidia (NVDA) were the top four mega-cap stocks. JP Morgan (JPM) and PayPal (PYPL) also added to the financial mega-cap stocks with gains over 2%. Facebook (FB) gained +1.28% driving the Communications sector (XLC) to positive gains, along with Google's advance. Growth stocks had a mixed day. Chinese financial stocks FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) advanced with huge +29.43% and +22.52% gains. On the other hand, Chinese aerial vehicle company Ehang Holdings (EH) lost -62.69% on a damaging report questioning the validity of the business. Pinterest (PINS +6.08%) and Twitter (TWTR +2.87%) added to the gains of the larger communications sector stocks. Palantir (PLTR -12.75) sold off after a disappointing earnings release. Solar Edge (SEDG) is up 4% after hours on positive earnings news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Some key economic data will be release before market open tomorrow. Producer Price Index data will give a leading indication on inflation. Consumer Price Index data released last week was lower than expected. An increase in Produce Price Index data would be positive as it will eventually impact consumer prices. Also before market open, Retail Sales data for January will be released. Finally, Industrial Production data for January will be released just before the market opens. Shopify (SHOP) will release earnings before market open tomorrow. Baidu (BIDU), Twilio (TWLO), Synopsis (SNPS), Fastly (FSLY), SunPower (SPWR), Tilray (TLRY) are some popular growth stocks reporting earnings after market close. Also reporting tomorrow will be Hilton (HLT) and Hyatt (H) which will provide insight to the hotel industry recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.28% for Wednesday. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a sideways -0.05% decline. The one-day trend points to a -0.91% decline that would meet up with the 14,000 support level. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line also offers an area of support and is -2.8% below Tuesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It may not be the start to the week that we all wanted, but there are positive signals in the underlying data that could turn into upside later in the week. The optimism for a stimulus bill that will boost the economic recovery is clear in the moves away from defensive plays and safe haven asset classes. Optimism is also growing as vaccines continue to roll out with new providers of tests, vaccines and other treatments for the pandemic being released weekly. Eventually that could get consumers back out and spending, unleashing record amounts of household savings over the past year. At the same time, the action today was another example of investors being bullish while keeping one foot out the door. A bad news cycle could send investors to the exit. It's important to keep those stop loss in place and manage positions to your level of risk acceptance. Stay healthy and trade well!

Daily Market Update for 2/12 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (72d), 2/8 (5d) and today 2/12 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 12, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 71% Good: Good gains in the morning, higher prices into close Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with tiny upper wick as index closed near the high Advance/Decline: 0.89, slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.09%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (-6.02%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.48%) and Materials (XLB +1.03%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.03%) and Utilities (XLU -0.73%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market rallied into the end of the week, closing at or near all-time highs across the major indexes. Despite lower than expected consumer sentiment data, investors were optimistic about the stimulus talks and progress with vaccines to end the pandemic. As a sign of that confidence, the defensive play of Utilities remained at the bottom of the sector list heading into a three-day weekend. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.50% gain, just below the all-time high. The volume was lower than the previous day, but the 96% closing range and 71% green body appear very bullish. Most of the gains came in the last 30 minutes of trading. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (SPX) set a new all-time high with a +0.47% advance for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.18% while the Dow Jones Industrial lagged the other indexes with a +0.09% gain. The VIX volatility index dropped -6.02% to have its lowest close since February 21, 2020. Energy (XLE +1.48%) was the leading sector of the day with Materials (XLB +1.03%) and Financials (XLF +1.03%) putting in identical gains. Financials led in the morning before being overtaken by Energy mid-day. The surprise heading into a three-day weekend is that Real Estate (XLRE -0.03%) and Utilities (XLU -0.73%) were at the bottom of the list. These sectors are often used for defensive plays, especially before three-day weekends this past year. Having them at the bottom of the list shows how confident investors are right now. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained steady this past week and today with a +0.07% gain. The US 30y and 10y yields climbed for a second day. US 2y treasury bond yields were slightly lower. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices also advanced while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced again after yesterday's small pullback. Timber (WOOD) continued to advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. Bullish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.585. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved significantly to the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps, Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all gained for the day. Amazon closed back above the 21d EMA after closing below it yesterday. PayPal (PYPL) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) led the mega-caps with +4.68% and +2.79% gains. Nvidia (NVDA) gave up some of yesterday's big gain with a -1.90% loss today. Growth stocks were again dominated by Chinese companies with Ehang (EH) gaining +14.42% and UP Fintech (TIGR) gaining +7.61%. Chewy (CHWY) also had a great gain of +8.95%, while Fiverr (FVRR), Peloton (PTON), and Penn National Gaming (PENN) all closing with greater than 5% advances. DataDog (DDOG) and CloudFlare (NET) closed with losses after disappointing investors with 2021 guidance in earnings the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Monday for President's day. Tuesday does not have a lot of economic news on the calendar. FOMC Member Daly speaks in the afternoon. CVS Health (CVS), Palantir (PLTR), Ringcentral (RNG), SolarEdge (SEDG), Avis (CAR) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Tuesday. Check your portfolio for earnings events to make sure you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.16% for Tuesday. That would put it just above the all-time high set earlier this week. The one-day trend is pointing to a -0.29% decline. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a larger decline of -0.71%. If there is further downside, the index started to build support at the 14,000 area this week. The 21d EMA line also offers an area of support and is -3.5% below Wednesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice way to end the week. I was expecting some defensive plays in late afternoon, but investors remained confident in the economic recovery and stayed invested in the stock market, heading into the three-day weekend. Defensive plays of Utilities and Real Estate were left on the sidelines and there was no exodus from equities to treasury bonds or other safe havens. Look for my Week in Review update later this weekend for more analysis of this week and how that might play into next week's market. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/11 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (71d), 2/5 (5d) and today 2/11 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 11, 2021 Facts: +0.38%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 14% Good: Finished higher, after selling pressure in morning Bad: Long lower shadow for second day showing more selling pressure Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with long lower shadow, small negative body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: 0.54, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (-0.02%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-3.37%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.10%) and Health (XLV +0.19%) were top. Energy (XLE -1.54%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq moved sideways with an inside day as the fight between buyers and sellers created a second day of choppiness. The morning sell-off was possibly prompted by disappointing employment data and a continued outlook from the Fed of an economy that needs support. The index closed with a +0.38% gain on slightly higher volume than the previous day. The inside day, marked by a lower high and a higher low, saw a big dip in the morning and another dip in the afternoon before bulls took prices higher into close and ended the day with a slight gain. The action resulted in a closing range of 77% and a small 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The buyer-seller indecision was best represented by the doji-style candle on the Russell 2000 (RUT) where the open and close were nearly the same. The RUT ended the day with a +0.13%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.17%, while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) declined a slight -0.02%. The VIX volatility index dropped -3.37% despite the intraday volatility. Technology (XLK +1.10%) and Health (XLV +0.19%) were the only sectors to outperform the broader S&P 500 index. Energy (XLE -1.54%) was the bottom sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) has been even the past two days with -0.01% declines each day. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields were all higher as investors sold the bonds. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices also advanced while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures finally pulled back after several days of advancing. Timber (WOOD) continued to advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) dropped while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.500. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is about at the mid-point between fear and greed. The NAAIM exposure index is back up to 110 as money managers are well into leverage in their portfolios. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both advanced for the day while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined. Amazon closed below its 21d EMA, a key line of support and resistance. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) led the mega-caps with the biggest gains. Toyota Motor (TM) gave back some of the gains from yesterday with a -1.62% gain. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the worst performing mega-cap for the day, leading the Energy sector lower. Fiverr (FVRR), Zynga (ZNGZ), Pinterest (PINS), Magnite (MGNI) were up more than 7% each, leading the popular growth stocks. GrowGeneration (GRWG) joined the sell-off of most marijuana related stocks with a -12.90% decline. After hours DataDog (DDOG) and Cloudflare (NET) were down -2.76% and -7.39% after hours despite beating analyst estimates in earnings and revenue. Although beating on results, the outlook for 2021 was disappointing for investors. Walt Disney (DIS) was up after hours, surprising investors with stronger than expected subscription growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Expectations, Sentiment and Inflation data will be release tomorrow morning. NTT Docomo (DMCYY) and MercadoLibre (MELI) are among several companies to release earnings before the opening bell tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.48% gain for Friday. That would be just below the all-time high set earlier this week. The one-day trend is pointing to a -0.66% decline. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a smaller decline of -0.40%. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.26% below Wednesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Yesterday's action set expectations for a sideways move today and the expectation is still at a sideways move for tomorrow. The expectation could be broken to the upside or the downside and would indicate direction heading into next week. After Thursday's close, the weekly chart for the Nasdaq shows as bullish. A sideways or positive move for tomorrow would both be equally as good to close the week. However, with the three day weekend it wouldn't be a huge surprise if there is a small pullback on Friday. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/10 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (70d), 2/4 (5d) and today 2/10 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 10, 2021 Facts: -0.25%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 46% Good: New all-time high, close above yesterday's low Bad: Morning dip below previous low, again fading into close Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bearish outside day with hanging man candlestick Advance/Decline: 0.88, slight more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.03%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (-0.72%), VIX (+1.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +0.95%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.99%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Wednesday was a wild session for the markets with a big dip in the morning as investors reacted to Core Consumer Price Index data that showed inflation was lower than expected. Inflation is something economists want to see at just the right level, not too much and not too little. The market recovered as morning turned into the afternoon, but then dipped again into close after statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.25% loss on higher volume. The closing range of 48% is good considering the morning dip and that the close is higher than yesterday's open. However, the candle has a hanging man pattern that shows sellers are ready to take over as soon as any bad news hits the market. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was the only index to close with a gain, advancing +0.20%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.03%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up the most with a -0.72% loss. The volatility index (VIX) rose +1.66%. Energy (XLE +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +0.95%) were the top performing sectors. Having Energy lead brought some strength to the market and likely helped the index close well above the morning lows. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.99%) was the bottom sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was even for the day with a slight 0.01% decline. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all declined with the 2y declining the most. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices also declined for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb on positive inventory data signaling higher demand. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.549. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is about at the mid-point between fear and greed. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only mega-cap of the biggest four to advance for the day. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) all declined. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) both dipped below their 21d EMA, but all four of these mega-caps closed above the key moving average. Toyota Motor (TM +4.91%) and Nvidia (NVDA +3.51%) were the top mega-cap gainers of the day. Tesla (TSLA +5.26%) was the worst performer of the mega-caps. Twitter (TWTR +13.20%) led growth stocks and boosted the Communications sector. FUTU holdings (FUTU) ended the day with a +7.01% gain after soaring +30% intraday. Doordash (DASH) ended the day with a +14.60% advanced. After hours Pinterest (PINS) was up 9.73% upon beating earnings expectations. SNAP (SNAP) did not fare as well and was down -7.44%. Peloton (PTON) was down -8.14% despite beating expectations. They warned off continued delays in delivery due to a growing backlog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will start with the Initial Jobless Claims report before market open. Later in the day the Fed Monetary policy and the US Federal Budget reports will be released to congress. Walt Disney (DIS), PepsiCo (PEP), AstraZeneca (AZN), DexCom (DXCM), Datadog (DDOG) are among a long list of earnings releases tomorrow. Check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +3.11% gain for Thursday. The index will need to break through the 14,000 round-number resistance again. The one-day trend is pointing to a sideways +0.08% move. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a -0.26% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.10% below Wednesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a bit of a rough day if your eyes were on the market the whole time. On the positive side, the index closed well off the morning lows. However, the day's action demonstrated that sellers are ready to respond to any hint of negative news. There were still plenty of big gainers for the day, but also some big losers that impacted overall sentiment. Keep an eye on your winners and trim your losers if the market is making you nervous. Otherwise, there aren't any strong signals to be overly bearish right now. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/9 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (69d), 2/3 (5d) and today 2/9 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 9, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 52%, Body: 52% Good: New all-time high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Upper wick, tested high three times but closed in middle of range Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Lower half of candle is body, upper wick formed after testing high 3 times Advance/Decline: 1.45, about three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (+0.40%), VIX (+1.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.18%) and Financials (XLF +1.29%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market continues to move higher, albeit at a slower pace than the previous week. Today brought another new all-time high for the Nasdaq and a higher low. However better than expected Job Openings data wasn't enough for the index to stay at the top of the range, testing the high three times before closing in about the middle of the intraday trading range. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.14% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The closing range of 52% is above a 52% body that covers the lower half of the candle with no lower wick. A higher high and a higher low is a sign of strength and closing above 14,000 was a key level to look for this week. About three stocks advanced for every two stocks that declined. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the best performing index of the day with a +0.40% gain. Go, go small caps! The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) could not hold on to early session gains and were down -0.11% and -0.03% at close. The VIX gained +1.84%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.45%) and Communications (XLC +0.33%) were the top performing sectors of the day. Energy (XLE -1.06%) and Materials (XLB -0.74%) were the bottom. With the big gain for Energy on Monday, it's reasonable to expect a pullback, and Energy continues to lead the sectors by a wide margin for the current week as well as month-to-date. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.54% for the day. The US 30y treasury bond yields remained about flat while while 10y treasury bond yields declined. The US 2y yields rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices pull backed after an upward run that started on Feb 1. Silver (SILVER) remained flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb higher. Timber (WOOD) declined slightly. Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.494, an overly bullish level. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the biggest four mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) advanced for the day with a +0.54% gain. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.66%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.54%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.44%. All are still trading above the key moving average lines. All have shrinking volume on price consolidation and could be ready to make another breakout to the positive. Roche (RHHBY) gained +2.41% after they requested emergency approval for a COVID test. Netflix (NFLX +2.03%) and Comcast (CMCSA +1.68%) helped lead Communication stocks higher. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) made another big advanced with a +20.63% gain. NIO (NIO) wants to breakout with a +6.38% gain today. Enphase (ENPH) was up 6% after hours upon beating estimates in their earnings release. Twitter (TWTR) also beat expectations but after hours gains were muted when they warned expenses will increase 25% this year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Core consumer price index data will be released before market open tomorrow. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated after markets open at 10:30. The US Federal Budget release and comments from Fed Chair Powell will happen in early afternoon. Toyota Motor (TM), Coca-Cola (KO), Uber (UBER), MercadoLibre (MELI), General Motors (GM) are just a few of the big earnings releases tomorrow. Zillow (Z), Qualys (QLYS) . There are a large amount of earnings releases this week, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line is pointing to a +1.07% gain and another all-time high. The one-day trend line is showing a sideways move of +0.10% which would likely be a result of resistance at yesterday's high. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -1.02% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.8% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't an overly bullish day for the market, but it certainly wasn't a bad day. After a week of big gains, having a small gain for one day allows moving averages to catch up. There was still plenty of breadth in the market with more gainers than losers. A sideways move tomorrow or even a small pullback would not be terrible for tomorrow. Then again, the market may just decide to continue higher on stimulus and economic data. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/8 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (68d), 2/2 (5d) and today 2/8 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 8, 2021 Facts: +0.95%, Volume higher, Closing range: 100%, Body: 54% Good: New all-time high, no upper wick, bullish into close Bad: Small gap to fill Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Upper half of candle is body, lower wick from morning dip but did not fill gap Advance/Decline: 3.36, more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.76%), RUT (+2.53%), VIX (+1.77%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.18%) and Financials (XLF +1.29%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was a lot to be excited about in the market today. The Nasdaq gapped up at open, as investors had high optimism for a stimulus bill to pass through congress. Democrats added new details of more than $50b to go toward transportation industries. That not only sent airline stocks soaring, but also pumped up the Energy sector. When the Energy sector leads, in most cases, the whole market follows. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.95% gain on a big spike in volume. There was a morning dip that nearly closed a gap-up at open, but bulls took over early and led the afternoon to a new all-time high and 100% closing range. The 54% green body in the upper half of the candle was the result of a rally into close. More than three stocks advanced for every stock that declined. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.74%, while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) advanced +0.76%. The small-caps were the big winners gain with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +2.53% for the day. The Russell 2000 produced its third Marubozu White candle in a row. Those candles have no wicks, the open is the low and the close is the high. The VIX volatility index rose +1.77%. Energy (XLE +4.18%) was the top sector of the day, rallying off news of stimulus for the transportation industry. Financials (XLF +1.29%) ended the day in second. Materials (XLB +0.83) was in second most of the day, but faded to fifth in the afternoon rally. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.10% for the day. The US 30y treasury bond yields declined for the day while 10y treasury bond yields made a slight advance. The US 2y yields rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices continue to rise and are at their highest level since February. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb higher. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced. Bullish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.546, continuing toward the overly bullish side. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders It was not a particularly exciting day for the four biggest mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (APPL) both advanced +0.11% for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.21% while Amazon (AMZN) lost -0.87%. We're still waiting for Amazon to breakout of the pattern after smashing earnings and revenue estimates in last week's quarterly update. NVIDIA (NVDA) was the winning mega-cap of the day with a +6.24% gain. Walt Disney (DIS +4.88%) and PayPal (PYPL +4.72%) also topped the mega-cap list. Exxon Mobil (XOM +4.30%) benefited from the transportation stimulus news that boosted the Energy sector. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) made another big advanced with a +10.34% gain. Square (SQ) gained +8.15%. Mohawk Group (MWK) gained +20.48%. Many popular growth stocks had big advances for the day. Chegg (CHGG) is up 4% after hours upon beating earnings expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Short-term energy outlook data will be released before market open tomorrow. Just after open the JOLTs Job Openings data for December will be released. FOMC Member Bullard will make comments in at noon. Weekly Crude Oil stock will be released after market close. Cisco (CSCO) is the biggest company to release earnings tomorrow after market close. Twitter (TWTR) and Enphase (ENPH) will also announce earnings tomorrow. There are a large amount of earnings releases this week, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.43% increase for Tuesday. There may be some resistance at the round number 14,000. However, more progress with the stimulus bill should get the index past that line. The one-day trend line is pointing to a -0.31% loss. The regression trend line is nearly horizontal, offset by the morning gap and late afternoon rally. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -1.03% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -4% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors opened up the week with optimism and bullish action. The high-hopes for stimulus, with the addition of transportation industry support helped. In addition, FOMC Member Mester reinforced the message that monetary policy would continue until we are sure the economy is showing strong recovery. Bullish optimism is high, which can be a sign of a pullback. Investors seem optimistic, but with one foot out the door. The expectation is the market would move higher tomorrow. However, caution is always necessary as a number of news catalyst could send the index in the other direction. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/5 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (67d), 2/1 (5d) and today 2/5 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 5, 2021 Facts: +0.57%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 27% Good: New all-time high, not overly heated gain Bad: Some pullback in the afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin body in upper half of the candle, longer lower wick from morning dip. Advance/Decline: 1.95, two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.39%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (+1.40%), VIX (-4.13%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.72%) and Communications (XLC +1.26%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.22%) was the bottom sector for the day. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets topped a bullish week with one more gain on Friday. Every day this week produced a higher high and a higher low on the Nasdaq. The broad market rally continued despite disappointing employment data as investors hope the data will accelerate the stimulus bill through congress. The index closed with a +0.57% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 81%. The long lower wick, created by a morning dip right after open, is below a 27% body. The opening price became support in the afternoon as the index tested the area twice. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.39% and +0.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) formed its second Marubozu White candle in as many days, gaining 1.40%. The bullish candle had no upper or lower wick with the open being the low of the day and the close being the high of the day. The VIX declined another -4.13%. Materials (XLB +1.72%) and Communications (XLC +1.26%) were the top sectors of the day. Technology (XLK -0.22%) was the only loosing sector for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.53% for the day, possibly due to the disappointing economic data. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose while the US 2y declined sharply. The yield curve continues to steepen since the beginning of the year. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb higher. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.578. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) added to recent gains with a +1.71% advanced. Amazon (AMZN) was up +0.63% as the market moves past this week's news. Microsoft (MSFT) had a small gain of +0.08% as the stock consolidates a bit on lower volume. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.46%. All four are trading above the key moving average lines, but below their all-time highs. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) was the leading mega-cap of the day with a +3.58% gain. ABT was following by Exxon Mobil (XOM +3.35%), Nike (NIKE +3.19%) and Toyota Motor (TM +1.92%). Digital Turbine (APPS) added to yesterday's big gain with a 14.11% advance today. SNAP (SNAP) rose +9.14% even after selling off -10% in yesterday's post market reaction to earnings. Magnite (MGNI) rose +26.25%. Peloton (PTON) declined -5.86% on warnings of continued slow delivery to new customers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. However watch for updates on the Stimulus bill over the weekend. SoftBank Group will announce earnings on Monday. Timing is not listed, but it's likely to be before US markets open. Chegg (CHGG) will release earnings after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.12% gain for Monday. The one-day trend is a bit under that line and points to a +0.54% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -0.58% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.54% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a positive end to a great week. Time to use the weekend to relax and enjoy the gains. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/4 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (66d), 1/29 (5d) and today 2/4 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 4, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 71% Good: Constant gain after morning dip, new all-time high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with short lower wick, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.70, More than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+1.08%), RUT (+1.98%), VIX (-4.98%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.22%) and Technology (XLK +1.60%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.36%) was the only sector to lose for the day. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A positive expectation breaker is always welcome in the Daily Market Update. Despite yesterday's candle showing some bearish indication, today the Nasdaq proved it wasn't ready to move back down. A new all-time high adds to the string of higher highs and higher lows we've had all week. The index closed with a +1.23% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day but continues to be higher than the 50d moving average volume. The candle has a closing range of 100% created by a spike in prices in the last 10 minutes of trading. The short lower wick was created in a 30 minute window of volatility in the morning. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) advanced +1.09% and +1.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes with a +1.98% gain and a Marubozu White candle, represented by no lower or upper wick. It's 100% green body from open to close. The VIX continued to retreat with a -4.98% decline as volatility returns to lower levels. Financials (XLF +2.22%) and Technology (XLK +1.60%) were top sectors for the day. Energy (XLE +1.10%) also outperformed the S&P 500. That's significant since usually when Energy performs well, the rest of the market also performs well. Materials (XLB -0.36%) was the only sector to lose for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.39% for the day and continues to trend upward from the January 5 low. The US 30y treasury bond yield rose slightly while the US 10y and US 2y declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined about 2% for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb. Timber (WOOD) remained even. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.587. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index and the NAAIM exposure index both remain at reasonably cautious levels. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) advanced for the day while Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined. These big four mega-caps are all trading above key moving average lines. PayPal (PYPL) led the mega-caps with a +7.36% gain after beating earnings and revenue expectations in their earnings report. Visa (V), Bank of America (BAC) and Mastercard (M) were also at the top of the mega-cap list, leading the Financials sector for the day. Among growth stocks, Digital Turbine (APPS) led with a +19.79% gain after crushing their earnings expectations. Chinese fintech company UP Fintech (TIGR) added another day of huge gains with a 15.25% advance. After hours Pinterest (PINS) was up 9.73% upon beating earnings expectations. SNAP (SNAP) did not fare as well and was down -7.44%. Peloton (PTON) was down -8.14% despite beating expectations. They warned off continued delays in delivery due to a growing backlog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data will be released before market open on Friday. In the afternoon, commodities trading data will be released. Speculative positions on Silver futures might be interesting. The end of the busy earnings week will bring some reports before market open, but none that are followed by this Daily Market Update. However, check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.45% gain on Friday. The one-day trend is a bit under that line and points to a +0.73% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -0.32% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.37% below Thursday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The positive expectation breaker was another sign that this market has room to grow. Liquidity is high in the market with above average volume. Investors continue to lack other places to move money, with Treasury Bond yields remaining low and gaining strength against other currencies. Expectation is for higher tomorrow, but never take that as a prediction. Always manage risk and protect the value you've worked so hard to build. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/3 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (64d), 1/27 (5d) and today 2/2 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 3, 2021 Facts: -0.02%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 78% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support above morning low Bad: Sell off late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body formed from morning and afternoon dips Advance/Decline: 1.65, almost three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.12%), RUT (+0.38%), VIX (-10.37%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.27%) and Communications (XLC +1.34%)were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.56%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq paused today after two days of big gains. It made an two attempts to have another day of gains, but dipped in morning and late afternoon trading. Still there were advances across a large number of stocks, fueled by great earnings reports from big mega-caps the day before. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.02% loss, moving sideways after gaining over 4% the past two days. Volume was slightly higher than the previous days. The closing range of 18% and a red body of 78% are the result of the morning and late-afternoon dips. Overall, the candle presents bearish, so expectations are set for sideways or lower. Advancing stocks did outnumber declining stocks on a 3 to 2 ratio. The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both advanced for the day, gaining +0.10% and +0.12%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes with a +0.38%. The Russell 2000 presented a much more bullish candle and so we will be watching closely the small caps for the next day or two. Sectors were mixed for the day. Energy (XLE +4.27%) led the sectors on soaring Crude Oil futures numbers. Communications (XLC +1.34%) was second, gaining momentum from Alphabet (GOOGL) which advanced on a great earnings report. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.56%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.11% for the day. US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all rose for the day, signaling investors moving to riskier assets. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) gained slightly as it resumes a more normalized pattern after volatility earlier in the week. Gold (GOLD) declined slightly for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.687. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day with a +7.28% gain after soaring nearly 10% intraday. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2%. Despite beating expectations on earnings and revenue, the announcement of Jeff Bezos moving from CEO to chairman was enough to pour water on the exciting results. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.46% while Apple (AAPL) declined -0.78%. Exxon Mobil (XOM +3.92%), Alibaba (BABA +3.51%) and Toyota Motor (TM +3.46%) were the other top advancing mega-caps for the day. Tesla (TSLA -2.07%) was the worst performing mega-cap, just behind Amazon. Chinese fintech company UP Fintech (TIGR) was a top growth stock with a +16.19% gain. GrowGeneration (GRWG) added to recent gains with another 9.15%. Two smaller growth companies that have become popular are Mohawk with a +12.56% gain and HyreCar with a +32.15% gain (almost 60% for the week). Both have been featured in my TradingView ideas. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be released in the morning. Hopefully it will add to positive employment news that we received today. Factory Orders data for December will be released after market open. Additional FOMC members will speak in the afternoon. Social networking companies SNAP (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) will release earnings tomorrow after close. Peloton (PTON), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Unity Software (U), Paylocity (PCTY) are among growth stocks reporting. There is a long list of earnings reports tomorrow that I won't attempt to include all here. Check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day, five-day and long term trendline from the 10/30 bottom are all pointing to gains for tomorrow. The range is from +0.35% to 1.41%. Expectation from the candle is sideways or lower, but a positive expectation breaker is always welcome. The 21d EMA line has provided support before last Friday's close below the line. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The sideways move today could be constructive for further gains to come. It allowed the moving average lines to catch a bit. Bullish optimism cooled off as measured by the put/call ratio. It also was a chance for the market to absorb the final two earnings releases from the four big mega-caps. The candle does indicate further pressure tomorrow, but the market can decide what it wants to do. Another day of mostly positive earnings reports could turn into more optimism and energy tomorrow, leading into another set of reports. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/2 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (64d), 1/27 (5d) and today 2/2 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 2, 2021 Facts: +1.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 82% (with gap), Body: 60% Good: Solid gains throughout the morning and early afternoon. Bad: Slight fade in late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, thick green body with small upper wick from fade Advance/Decline: 2.81, almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.39%), DJI (+1.57%), RUT (+1.19%), VIX (-15.48%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.42%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.12%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.43%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market added to Monday's gains with another positive day on Tuesday. Volatility fell back to more stable levels while gains continued to be spread broadly across stocks. The market faded slightly going into close, possibly as investors prepared for earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.56% gain on higher volume. The closing range with the gap was 82% and a 60% green body sits under a short upper wick created by the late afternoon fade. The rising window candle indicates a bullish continuation, but with some caution given the fade into close. Almost three stocks advanced for each declining stock, the second day of broad advances. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.39%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +1.57%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +1.19%. All sectors gained for the day. Financials (XLF +2.42%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.12%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.43%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.24% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields continued gains for another day. The US 2y treasury bond yields advanced after three days of declines. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined sharply after huge gains yesterday fueled by retail investors targeting the commodity. Gold (GOLD) also declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures went up on positive inventory data. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined again to 0.545, signaling bullish optimism. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) all advanced for the day. Microsoft started the day with gains but closed with a light loss of -0.06%. All four are trading above key moving average lines, including Apple which had declined since earnings last week. Mastercard (MA), Tesla (TSLA), Bank of America (BAC) and Walt Disney (DIS) led the mega-caps with over 3.5% gains each. Alibaba (BABA) declined -3.85% after a premarket earnings report that showed record revenue but forecasted uncertainty for the Ant group as China tightens controls on the company. Chinese fintech company FUTU Holdings (FUTU) had another big gain of 11.40%. Organic plant and marijuana growing supply company, GrowGeneration (GRWG) gained 10.47% as optimism grows around a bill to legalize marijuana at the federal level. WorkDay (WDAY) and DraftKings (DKNG) also big gains, advancing +8.90% and +8.55%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Purchasing Managers Index data will be released in the morning for Services and Non-Manufacturing sectors which provides a view the level of economic activity. Crude Oil Inventories will be released at 10:30. Additional FOMC members will speak in the afternoon. PayPal (PYPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are two significant earnings reports to be released after market close. Ebay (EBAY) will also report in the evening. Spotify (SPOT) will release earnings before market open. There is a long list of earnings reports tomorrow that I won't attempt to include here. Check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance If Tuesday's one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, it points to a +0.93% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +0.40% gain. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -0.92% loss which would still be well above 21d EMA. The 21d EMA line has provided support before last Friday's close below the line. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The gap-up with solid gains for most of the day was very bullish for the index and broadly shared across the sectors and cap segments. The slight fade late in the day is likely due to the two significant earnings reports from mega-caps Amazon and Google which could influence the market heavily. So far it seems we are off to a bullish week after last week's selling. However, keep in mind that things can change quickly as stimulus and pandemic news occurs. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 2/1 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (63d), 1/26 (5d) and today 2/1 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 1, 2021 Facts: +2.55%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 59% Good: Close back above the 21d EMA, steady climb after morning dip Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 3.19, three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.61%), DJI (+0.76%), RUT (+2.53%), VIX (-8.61%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.60%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.09%) and Health Services (XLV +0.38%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview February kicked off with broad gains across the Nasdaq. The index took a short dip in the morning and then headed upward for the rest of the day. Manufacturing data released after market open was a little lower than analyst expectations, but still high compared to the two-year monthly average. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +2.55% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 91% and the 59% green body show the strong buying that occurred throughout the day after a morning dip. The index closed above the 21d EMA, a key area of support. Many participants benefited from the gains as there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.61% while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.76%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +2.53%. All sectors gained for the day. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.60%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) were led the sector list. Real Estate (XLRE +2.26%) was also near the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.09%), Health Services (XLV +0.38%), and Utilities (XLU +0.48%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.44% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields gained for the day while the 2y treasury bond yields declined. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) gained another 7%, fueled by retail investors targeting the commodity. Gold (GOLD) also advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures wend up. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined back to 0.567, signaling bullish optimism. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps gained with Amazon (AMZN) advancing the most with a +4.26% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also had big gains with +3.32% and +3.60% respectively. Apple (AAPL) had a smaller gain at +1.65%, which was enough to close above its 21d EMA. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap of the day with a +5.83% gain. Very few mega-caps declined for the day. Growth stocks also did very well. Magnite (MGNI), Fiverr (FVRR) and SNAP (SNAP) were among top gainers with +12.59%, +9.38% and +7.39% advances. Chinese stocks Ehang Holdings (EH), Up Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) gained +22.81%, +18.50% and +5.62%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead FOMC Members Mester and Williams will speak tomorrow afternoon. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers will be released after market close. An update on Manufacturing activity for January will be released as the market opens on Monday. The last update showed Manufacturing activity at a record high level. Alibaba (BABA), Pfizer (PFE), United Parcel Service (UPS) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will release earnings before market open. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) will release earnings after market close. There are many other earnings releases schedule for tomorrow, so be sure to check your portfolio for earnings events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance If Monday's one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, it points to a +2.33% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.77% gain. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -2.32% loss which would be below the 21d EMA again. The 21d EMA line has provided support before Friday's close below the line. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq made a nice recovery on this Monday after a bearish move in the previous week. Another day or two of gains would confirm the reversal and put us back on a path for higher highs. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/29 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (62d), 1/25 (5d) and today 1/29 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 29, 2021 Facts: -2.00%, Volume lower, Closing range: 25%, Body: 64% Good: Closed above 13,000 Bad: Everything else, below 21d EMA, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with visible, but not long, upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: 0.46, two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.93%%), DJI (-2.03%), RUT (-1.56%), VIX (+9.53%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU -0.54%) and Health Services (XLV -0.84%) were top. Energy (XLE -3.32%) and Technology (-2.36%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was not a great way to end January, which until this week was a rather bullish month for investors. The onslaught of retail traders on hedge funds proved to be too much for the market to handle. Not all of the downside is due to the crazy trading, but some of it is from large hedge investors covering lost short bets by selling long positions. And some of it is likely the added uncertainty that the actions brought to the market. Add to that some mixed vaccine news which has been impacting markets lately. The index closed with a -2.00% loss to end one of the worst weeks since October. The volume was lower than the previous day, but still above the 50d moving average volume. The closing range of 25% and 64% body shows a decidedly bearish day which brought the index to its first close below the 21d EMA line since early November. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.93% while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) lost -2.03%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did a little better with a -1.56% loss. All sectors lost for the day with Utilities (XLU -0.54%), Health Services (XLV -0.84%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.05%) having the smallest declines. Technology (XLK -2.36%) and Energy (XLE -3.32%) declined the most. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.14% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields gained for the day while the 2y treasury bond yields declined. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) continued its rapid gain. Gold (GOLD) also advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) bot declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.782. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) closed below their 21d EMA. Amazon tested the 50d MA but bounced and closed higher. Alphabet (GOOGL) dipped below the 21d EMA but closed above the line. Microsoft (MSFT) is still trading well above the moving average lines, despite a -2.29% pullback from yesterday's all-time high. Only Microsoft ended the week with a weekly gain. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) and Abbot Laboratories (ABT) were among only a handful of mega-cap stocks with gains. Tesla (TSLA) had its third day of losses as it dropped another -5.02% Not many growth stocks found gains for the day. Moderna (MRNA) seemed to benefit from news that the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is only 66% effective. Moderna gained +8.53% for the day. DataDog (DDOG) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) both held up nicely with good gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead An update on Manufacturing activity for January will be released as the market opens on Monday. The last update showed Manufacturing activity at a record high level. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) will release quarterly earnings before market opens on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend lines moved significantly with this week's close. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom is point at +4.19%. That does not seem possible for Monday, but shows how far we've regressed from that trend midline. The five-day trend line points to a -0.07% loss. The one-day trend line points to a -1.59% loss. The 21d EMA line provided support early in today's session and then became resistance in the afternoon. The 13,000 level does seem to be holding for now. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you had your trader eyes shut, its ok to open them now. It really wasn't that bad. The weekend is here and it's time to take a breather. Take a step back and look at the weekly progress of the stocks in your portfolio. After a few days of declines it's important to assess the bigger picture. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/28 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (61d), 1/22 (5d) and today 1/28 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 28, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing range: 11%, Body: 7% Good: Stayed above yesterday's lows Bad: Selling in the afternoon, could not hold the morning gains Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Long upper wick with thin body at bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.98%), DJI (+0.99%), RUT (-0.10%), VIX (-18.81%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.86%) and Materials (XLB +1.72%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.31%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq tried to have a bullish day but was turned away by the bears in the afternoon. There was still a gain for the day, but if the market was open another hour, that gain might have been wiped out. The index closed with a +0.50% for the day. The volume was lower than the previous day, but well above the 50d moving average volume. The closing range of 11% and the 7% body with a long upper shadow, is the result of the morning gains being turned into afternoon selling. Still, at the end of the day there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both gained about 1% but also had long upper shadows. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.10%. All sectors had gains for the day. Financial (XLF +1.86%) and Materials (XLB +1.72%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.31%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21% for the day. US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all gained for the day. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices recovered from yesterday's dip. Silver (SILVER) had a huge 4.99% gain while Gold (GOLD) moved sideways. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) also advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.561. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The NAAIM exposure index dropped back to 83.51 from the very high level of 112.93 last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft led the four biggest mega-caps with a +2.59% gain and a new all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day with a +1.88% gain. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.16%. Apple (AAPL) was the only loser of the four with a decline of -3.50%. Comcast (CMCSA) gained +6.57% after beating expectations in their pre-market earnings announcement. and Walt Disney (DIS +5.43%) led the for mega-caps. Tesla (TSLA -3.32%) joined Apple at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Many growth stocks did well for the day. Penn National Gaming (PENN) was a big winner with a +9.55% gain. Square (SQ) had a +8.62% gain as it tries to reverse a recent downtrend. SNAP (SNAP +8.54%) also had a big gain. Beyond Meat (BYND), Sumo Logic (SUMO) and Palantir (PLTR) gave up some of the recent gains with losses from 6-9%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Before market open tomorrow, updates for consumer price index data, personal spending and employment cost will be released. The data can be important to understanding the degree of inflation, but also whether there will be more or less pressures on consumers in the near term. For example, higher price index data with lower employment cost would show more pressure and maybe confirmed in the personal spending data and the consumer sentiment data to be release after market open. Pending Homes Sales will also be released after market open. Eli Lilly (LLY), Chevron (CVX) and Honeywell (HON) top the list of large companies releasing earnings before market open tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance All three trend lines are pointing to a gain tomorrow. The long-term trend from the 10/30 bottom points toa +2.32% gain. The one-day trend points to a +1.25% while the five-day trend is pointing to a +0.44% gain. On the downside, the 21d EMA is right under yesterday's low and could offer support for tomorrow. That's around a -1.10% decline. In addition to the 21d EMA, the previous two week's highs around 13,200 acted as support after the index closed last week's gap up. Beyond that, 13,000 support seemed to hold up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seemed a bit of a stalling day for the index as it made gains through the morning and early afternoon only to give up those gains in the late afternoon. It was good to stay above yesterday's lows, but the index was not able to make a new high today. The inside day with the long-upper wick sets and expectation for another sideways or lower move tomorrow. However, the index could also find support at the 21d EMA and bounce the other direction. The regression trend-lines that I use all point to gains. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/27 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (60d), 1/21 (5d) and today 1/26 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 27, 2021 Facts: -2.61%, Volume higher, Closing range: 22%, Body: 63% Good: Not much, held support after closing last week's gap. Bad: Gap down, long red body with late day selling Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly body with visible upper and lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.19, five declining stocks for each advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.57%), DJI (-2.05%), RUT (-1.91%), VIX (61.64%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -1.28%), Energy (XLE -1.35%) were top. Communications (XLC -3.23%) was bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Today was a little more exciting then yesterday, but not in the way we wanted. The Nasdaq opened with a gap down, chopped back and forth and then sold off after the Fed announcements. The fed will keep current monetary policy and interest rates, but said there are still a lot of headwinds for the economy. The Nasdaq closed with a -2.61% loss after testing the 21d EMA. Volume was over 60% higher than the previous day. The gap down at open along with the selling during the day resulted in a 19% closing range and a 63% red body. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) all closed with losses. The RUT had the smallest loss at -1.91%, but still a big pullback. The VIX gained 61.64% for the day and ended with a 100% closing range. It is at the highest point since the beginning of November. All sectors lost for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -1.28%) and Energy (XLE -1.35%) were the smallest losses. Communications (XLC -3.23%) had the biggest loss. Energy was in positive territory at mid-day before the late afternoon sell-off. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.53% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields declined for the day. US 2y treasury yields gained for the day. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained as inventory data showed a better outlook on demand than the previous week. Timber (WOOD) declined -3.59% for the day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose for the day, but remained at a low level of 0.588. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Three of the four largest mega-caps all declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest loss at -4.67%. Apple (AAPL) had the smallest loss at -0.77%, but declined another -3.23% after hours despite beating earnings and revenue expectations. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.81%. Microsoft (MSFT) closed the session with a +0.25% advance, but at one point was up +3.5% after pleasing investors with yesterday's earnings release. Microsoft was the only mega-cap with a gain. Netflix lost nearly all of its post-earnings gap with a -6.88% loss today. A few growth stocks still did OK today. Palantir (PLTR) ended the day with a +10.26% gain, although was much higher mid-day. Beyond Meat (BYND) added to yesterday's big gains with a +2.81% gain. Tesla (TSLA) is down -5% in post-market trading after missing earnings expectations. Facebook (FB) is down -2.07% after hours, despite beating earnings and revenue expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow's economic news will include Q4 GDP data and Initial Jobless claims before market open. After the market opens, New Home Sales data for December will be released. Earnings tomorrow will include Mastercard (MA) before market open and Visa (V) after market close. Comcast (CMCSA) and McDonalds (MCD) will also announce earnings before market open. Atlassian (TEAM) will release earnings after market close. Several airlines including Southwest (LUV), American Airlines (AAL) and JetBlue (JBLU) will also release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved back below the long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom. Returning to that line would be a +2.36% gain. The five-day trend line is under that point with a +1.74%. Continuing the one-day trend points to a -1.22% loss. That would be below the 21d EMA which provided support today. In addition to the 21d EMA, the previous two week's highs around 13,200 acted as support after the index closed last week's gap up. Beyond that, 13,000 support seemed to hold up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a distribution day for the major indexes today. Certainly a character change in the market. The gap up from last Wednesday's open was filled and the index seemed to pause at that point. As a defense to the selling, there was some purchasing of bonds but not a huge amount. The more alarming signal is the negative after hours reactions to fairly positive earnings reports from Apple and Facebook. Some extra caution is required heading into tomorrow's session. The market can choose which direction it wants to go, and that could be a reversal off the 21d EMA for gains tomorrow. Or it could be further downside. Take a look at your portfolio and have a plan based on your trading style and risk comfort level. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/26 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (59d), 1/20 (5d) and today 1/26 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 26, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 23%, Body: 56% Good: Low is well-above last week's highs Bad: Thich red body relative to rest of candle, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with tiny upper and lower wicks, insider day Advance/Decline: 0.59, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.15%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.62%), VIX (-0.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.36%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.38%) and Energy (XLE -2.14%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Although some wild happenings continue to occur in the market, the Nasdaq composite index had a rather boring day. And that can be a good thing. Yesterday's big dip and recovery followed a week of huge growth. So a day of mostly sideways action, which held lows well above last week's highs, can be very constructive for the index. The Nasdaq ended with a -0.07% on lower volume. The closing range of 23% and 56% red body sounds bad, but is within a candle that is only 0.73% from top to bottom. Compare that to the previous days candle that had a 2.70% trading range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) all closed with losses. The RUT had the biggest loss at -0.62%. The S&P 500 set a new all-time high before pulling back a bit. Communications (XLC +1.36%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were at the top of the sector list. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.90%) and Technology (XLK +0.07%) were the only other sectors to end the day with gains. Materials (XLB -1.38%) and Energy (XLE -2.14%) were bottom. Energy was up 1.48% at open but quickly sold off to end the day in last place. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.24% for the day. US 30y treasury bond yields were flat while 10y yields rose slightly. 2y yields dropped as investors purchased the bonds. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) remained flat. Timber (WOOD) advanced for the day. Copper (COPPER1!) remained flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped slightly to 0.524. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps ended the day with gains. Microsoft (MSFT) had the biggest gain of +1.22% and continued to advance after hours with a beat on earnings and revenue expectations. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had gains of +0.98% and +0.72% respectively. Apple (AAPL) had the smallest gain of the four. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) led the mega-caps with a 2.71% gain after releasing pre-market earnings that beat expectations and gave positive guidance. Comcast (CMCSA) and AT&T (T) also had gains exceeding 2%, helping Communications to lead the sector list. Growth stocks had a mixed day. One of the big winners was Beyond Meat (BYND) which followed yesterday's 13% gain with a 17.7% gain today. The stock soared 40% after Beyond Meat revealed a partnership with Pepsi to make products from plant-based proteins. GameStop (GME) continued to…. nah, let's move on. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released before market open. Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. Today's API Weekly Crude number was lower than expected, a good sign for crude prices. The big economic news tomorrow will be from the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Out of the meeting, we will hear about changes in outlook on the economy and whether the Fed plans any changes to interest rates or monetary policy. Tomorrow will be another big day for earnings releases. Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA) and Facebook (FB) will all report earnings after market close. There are numerous other reports before and after the market, so be sure to check your portfolio for any companies that announce earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.68% gain. The one-day trend line points to another sideways day, slightly to the positive. The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a -0.55% loss. If there is a further downside move, its notable that the index held support today above last week's highs. The low was 13,567.14, and would hopefully continue to hold support above that area. The 21d EMA is at 13,146.21 which could offer an area of support at 3.44% below today's close. 13,000 support seems to be holding up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The indexes are doing what would be expected after last week's gains and Monday's big swings. Pausing for a day or two and allowing enthusiasm to cool off a bit will be good for the market. However, wild moves of stocks being manipulated by large groups of retail traders continues underneath the surface. Nothing is fundamentally broken, but continue to be cautious as always. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/25 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (58d), 1/19 (5d) and today 1/25 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 25, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume higher, Closing range: 74%, Body: 13% Good: Stayed above the gap from last Wed, bulls fought back in afternoon Bad: Long sudden trip to the days low, volume heavy on the way down Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Similar to bearish doji star, but body a little thick Advance/Decline: 0.91, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.12%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+5.84%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +2.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.00%) were top. Finance (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was expectation coming into the week that it would be choppy, but we didn't expect that chop to all happen within 30 minutes. But that's how it goes sometimes. Investors were already playing defense in the opening minutes of the day, despite the index setting a new all-time high. But the bulls caught the downward action mid-morning and brought the Nasdaq back to gains in the afternoon. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.69% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 74% is typically good, but the 13% red body that is entirely above last week's bullish range is a possible reversal pattern. There were less advancing stocks than declining stocks as many stocks did not move back to positive territory after the morning sell-off. The S&P 500 (SPX +0.36%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.12%) and Russell 2000 (RUT -0.25%) all have their own candle patterns to represent the day. Each has a long lower wick, but only the RUT set a new all-time high, creating a long upper wick. The Dow Jones Industrial average is in a third day of a downward move. As investors came into the day defensive, Utilities (XLU +2.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.90%) moved to the top of the sector list even before everything turned downward around 10:30. At the end of the day, Utilities and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.00%) were at the top, with Real Estate at the bottom. Finance (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -1.02%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.12% for the day. US 30y, 20y and 2y treasury bond yields all dropped for the day. Those moves were also happening as the market opened, well before the 10:30a dip. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased slightly for the day, but did dip while the equity markets dipped in the morning. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced slightly. Timber (WOOD) declined for the day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.534. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps all ended the day with gains, although have the same long lower shadows as the index. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) faired the best with a +2.77% and +1.58% gain, respectively. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both had gains less than 0.1%. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap of the day with a +4.03% gain. Most mega-caps did ok. Intel (INTC) added to losses with a -2.15% decline. Paypal (PYPL), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Banc of America (BAC) led the Financial mega-cap losses with more than 1% declines. Some mega-caps did very well despite the big swings of the day. Beyond Meat (BYND) has no lower wick and a very high closing range with a 12.81% gain. Moderna (MRNS) gained +12.20% after announcing their vaccines will work with new strains of the COVID virus. Palantir (PLTR) had a huge intraday swing but ended the day with a 11.20% gain. GameStop (GME) continued the squeeze, or whatever we are calling it now. At one point it was up over 100%, but ended the day with an 18.12% gain. The stock has gained over 300% since the beginning of the year. Blackberry (BB) issued a public statement that there is no material difference in their business results that would drive a +28.42% gain in their stock price. I believe eventually the stock manipulation, whether by a few individuals or a mass community of investors, will cause reaction from market makers, regulators, and lawmakers and have a negative impact on retail investors. It's something to keep monitoring. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence numbers for January will be released in the morning after market open. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers, which negatively surprised investors last week, will be updated in the afternoon. Tomorrow will kick-off the huge wave of earnings reports from big tech and other meg-caps. American Express (AXP) will announce earnings before market open. Consumer Staples company Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and home builder DR Horton (DHI) will also announce before market open. Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD), Texas Instruments (TXN) will kick-off big tech after hours. There are a bunch more I won't list here, but do check your portfolio and plan accordingly for this week's earnings releases. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.14%. The one-day trend line and the long trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a -1.05% loss. If there is a further downside move, its notable that the index held support today above last Wednesday's gap up. The low was 13,329.77, and would hopefully continue to hold support above that gap. If the index would fill the gap, the other side is around 13,220. That's around a 3.0% decline. The 21d EMA is at 13,099.32 which could offer an area of support at 3.9% below today's close. 13,000 support seems to be holding up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy day for many investors. I've heard numerous stories of portfolio's starting the day with record gains, but those gains were wiped out in 20-30 minutes. Still, the indexes and many stocks recovered from the sudden sell-off and ended the day with gains. On the weekly chart, we have a higher high and lower low. We can likely expect more choppiness this week as the indexes pause, move sideways or even pullback a bit and let moving averages catch up while heated gains cool off a bit. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/22 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (57d), 1/15 (5d) and today 1/22 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 22, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 77%, Body: 66% Good: Higher high and higher low, tested but stayed above low Bad: Pullback in last hour created upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body under a longer upper wick than lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.54, about three advancing for every one declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.30%), DJI (-0.57%), RUT (+1.28%), VIX (+2.77%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.25%), Utilities (XLU +0.14%) and Communications (XLC +0.04%) were the only gaining sectors. Financials (XLF -0.72%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Welcome back to the game RUT! It was a mixed session for most of the major indexes. But the Russell 2000 proved there is more room for small-caps to grow. The Nasdaq was also able to end with a small gain for the day after fighting off morning bears and making a new all-time high before dropping back slightly at close. The Nasdaq ended with a +0.09% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 77% with a thick 66% green body in the candle. The visible upper wick was created near the end of the day as investors took profits and shifted to defensive positions headed into the weekend. About three stocks advanced for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had a crazy open, dropping a full one percent in its opening five minutes. That wouldn't last long and the small-cap index climbed the rest of the day, ending the session with a new all-time high and 100% closing range. The RUT gained +1.28% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had very different days, dropping -0.30% and -0.57% respectively. Real Estate (XLRE +0.25%), Utilities (XLU +0.14%) and Communications (XLC +0.04%) were the only gaining sectors. Financials (XLF -0.72%) was the bottom sector. It was clear from the beginning of the session that investors were making defensive plays on the last day of the short week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.12% for the day. US 30y and US 20y treasury bond yields dropped slightly while 2y yields remained flat. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices decreased for a second day. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced to a new multi-year high. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. The +3.67% increase in Aluminum futures comes after several weeks of declines. The commodity prices have pivoted today from recent trends. This will be something to watch for a continuation and new trend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio 0.517. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) led the largest mega-caps with a +1.61% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both gained about +0.45%. Amazon (AMZN) dropped back from recent gains to lose -0.45% for the day. All are healthy moves. Home Depot (HD) led the mega-caps with a 1.77% gain, likely driven by surprisingly good real estate data this week, including Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. Intel (INTC) sold off sharply for a -9.29% loss after a big gain yesterday. The late day gains yesterday were caused by an early release of earnings after some of the details leaked. Several growth stocks had big advances for the day. Sumo Logic (SUMO) advanced 12.10%. Digital Turbine (APPS) gained +25.40%. But the big winner of the day was Palantir (PLTR) with a 25.40% gain. Gamestop (GME) continued its short squeeze with a +51.08% gain. I may have to add GME as another contrarian indicator of investor sentiment. :) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news schedule for Monday. There are also no "Daily Market Update" notable earnings releases for Monday. That's the quiet before the storm as many of the big mega-caps will report earnings starting Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.95% gain. The one-day trend line points to a +0.49%. The recent gains for the index still put it above the long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom, but it is closing in on the middle of that channel. The line is pointing to a -0.67% loss for Monday. If there is a further downside move, 13,000 support seems to be holding up well for the index and that's just below the 21d EMA now. The 21d EMA is around 3.6% below the index. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't a bad way to end a solid week of gains. After climbing over 4% it's good to have the Nasdaq pause and let the moving averages catch up. A higher high and higher low for the week, continues a 12 week rally since early November. Keeping the gains at a steady pace can help the rally continue its move upward. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/21 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (56d), 1/14 (5d) and today 1/21 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 21, 2021 Facts: +0.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 72%, Body: 9% Good: New all-time high, support at yesterday's close for higher low Bad: Thin body, indecisive candle Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body with visible upper and lower wicks could be a spinning top Advance/Decline: 0.79, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.03%), DJI (-0.04%), RUT (-0.89%), VIX (-1.20%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.29%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%), and Communications (XLC +0.35%) were the only advancing sectors. Energy (XLE -3.38%) was the worst performing sector. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a choppy session with some indecision from open to close on which direction the indexes wanted to move. In the end, investors ignored bleak unemployment data and ended the day with gains, albeit very concentrated in specific sectors. The Nasdaq ended with a +0.55% gain on higher volume. However the 9% body shows the indecision from open to close. The index dipped to create a long lower wick, then made new all-time highs before closing just above the open. The closing range of 72% and the higher high and higher low, makes for a slightly bullish candle. More stocks declined than advanced. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.89% for the day, continuing to trail the other major indexes this week. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) stayed about even for the day. The VIX declined -1.20%. Technology (XLK +1.29%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%), and Communications (XLC +0.35%) were the only advancing sectors. These three sectors all have large exposure to the biggest mega-caps which helped drive gains for the day. Energy (XLE -3.38%) was the worst performing sector. Energy dipped as crude oil prices took a hit from a surprise increase in US supply, and slower recovery in demand than expected. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.44% for the day. US 30y and US 20y treasury bond yields climbed back to recent highs while shorter term yields remained flat. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices decreased slightly for the day, but remain near recent highs. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced to a new multi-year high. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. The +3.67% increase in Aluminum futures comes after several weeks of declines. The commodity prices have pivoted today from recent trends. This will be something to watch for a continuation and new trend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.609. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index continues to rise. The NAAIM exposure is at its highest value since 2017. Money Managers are well into leverage with a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps, Apple (AAPL, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) all continued advances from yesterday. Apple and Alphabet set new all-time highs before retreating a bit. All four are well above the key moving average lines now. Intel (INTC) was the leading mega-cap, gaining +6.46% as investors anticipated the earnings announcement after hours. However earnings slipped despite record revenue and the stock fell back 4.74% in aftermarket trading Overall mega-caps were mixed. Energy and Financial stocks were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks were also mixed, but there were some big winners for the day. FUTU gained another 9.95%, but was outshined by the similar stock UP Fintech (TIGR) which gained 23.72%. Chinese FinTech companies have had quite a run the past few weeks. AirBnB (ABNB) gained 11.48%. Fastly (FSLY), Solar Edge (SEDG) and Moderna (MRNA) all gained over 6%. Digital Turbine (APPS -3.67%) fell back from yesterday's gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services purchasing data will be released just after market open. These numbers show economic activity in the two sectors. Additional real estate data will be released a few minutes later. Crude Oil Inventories will be provided at 11:00 and could add to yesterday's negative news for the energy sector. Big oil company, Schlumberger (SLB) will release earnings before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a gain of +0.40% to +0.77%. After a few days of gains, the index is well above the long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom. That line points to a loss of -0.96%. If there is a downside move, 13,000 support seems to be holding up well for the index and that's just above the 21d EMA now. The 21d EMA is around 3.8% below the index which should also offer support at the 13,000 level. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Yesterday was an explosive day of gains. It's no surprise that the index would take a breather today. The choppiness during the day is a reason for some caution. The gains were focused on larger caps that are breaking out from recent bases. The higher high and higher low is a great sign and we will hopefully continue the trend to finish the short week. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/20 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (55d), 1/13 (5d) and today 1/20 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 20, 2021 Facts: +1.97%, Volume higher, Closing range: 90%, Body: 73% Good: Gains the whole day and closing near the top of the range Bad: Gap up Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny lower wick and more visible upper wick from some selling at close Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing stocks than declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+1.39%), DJI (+0.83%), RUT (+0.44%), VIX (-7.14%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +3.14%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.08%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.42%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview If the equity market could talk, I think it would say Happy Inauguration Day. Investors breathed a sigh of relief that maybe some of the turmoil is behind us. That sentiment translated into a gap up at open with steady gains throughout the day. The Nasdaq closed with a big +1.97% gain on higher volume. The candle has a closing ranging of 82%, but including the gap the actual closing range is even better at 90%. The 73% green body and tiny lower wick shows the nearly constant gains that happened throughout the trading session. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks, but note that the breadth was not as wide as the previous day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 0.43%, one of the few times in recent months where it has trailed the other indexes in performance. So there was a shift back towards the larger caps, but not enough to call it a rotation. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended with a +1.39% gain while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.83%. Communications (XLC +3.14%) was the leading sector by a large margin. Technology (XLK +1.98%) looked like it would keep up with Communications in the morning, but faded behind Real Estate (XLRE +1.98%) by afternoon. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.89%) was the other stand-out sector. These four sectors drove the S&P 500 gains. All other sectors under-performed the major index. Only Financials (XLF -0.42%) declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined slightly to -0.03%. US 30y treasury bond yields stayed about even while US 10y and US 2y yields dropped. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased for the day and set a recent high. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures also rose. Timber (WOOD) and Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. These commodity trends have been consistent the past 4-5 days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.560. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps, Apple (AAPL, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) decided they finally wanted to join the market rally. All four turned in huge gains for the day. Alphabet was the biggest gain, advancing +5.36%. All four closed well above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA. Netflix was the top performing mega-cap after surprising investors with a record number of subscribers and the first time over 200m. The fact they did not meet earnings expectations, did not matter. The subscribers plus the announcement of a potential stock buyback program sent the price soaring. Most mega-caps had gains for the day. The large banks such as Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the worst performers. There were a lot of exciting moves among growth stocks as well. FUTU (FUTU) had another big advance with a +10.97% gain. Digital Turbine (APPS) also broke into new all-time highs with a +10.85% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will kick-off with real estate data before market open. That will include Building Permits and Housing Starts. Also before market open, there will be an update on Initial Jobless Claims and Manufacturing data for January. Fifth Third (FITB) and KeyCorp (KEY) are among financial companies reporting earnings before market open. Intel (INTC) will IBM (IBM) announce earnings after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance If today's trend line continues tomorrow, it points to a +1.08% gain tomorrow. The five-day trend line and long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a small pullback of -0.44%. If there is a downside move, 13,000 support seems to be holding up well for the index and that's just above the 21d EMA now. The 21d EMA is around 3.8% below the index which should also offer support at the 13,000 level. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a bold statement made by the markets today as the US transitions to a new administration. Lots of great things happened including the big mega-caps joining the current market rally that started in November. The Financial sector declining on such a big day was one negative point. The sector is declining as more banks are releasing earnings that beat expectations on earnings but are disappointing on revenue. But keep in mind that the higher treasury bond yields, that are expected to drive more revenue in this sector, only came in the first week of January. Watch out for the gap created today. The index doesn't have to fill the gap, but it often has in the past. Stay healthy and take care!

Daily Market Update for 1/19 Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (54d), 1/11 (5d) and today 1/19 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 19, 2021 Facts: +1.53%, Volume lower, Closing range: 92%, Body: 50% Good: Solid gains in afternoon after morning low, high closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick from morning dip, thick green body from afternoon Advance/Decline: 2.04, two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.81%), DJI (+0.38%), RUT (+1.32%), VIX (-4.52%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.01%), Communications (XLC +1.81%), and Technology (XLK +1.30%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.66%), Consumer Staples (XLP -0.44%), Utilities (XLU -0.38%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market started the trading week on a note of optimism after a long weekend. The end of the last week was marked with defensive moves into lower risk sectors and safe haven assets. Today, the opposite moves were made to begin a week that brings a transition for the US, the inauguration of President Biden. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.53% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 92% and a thick 50% green body are representative of the confident buying in the afternoon that produced the bullish session. The lows in the morning were just above Friday's open. After testing that low three times in the morning, the index finally turned to the upside for the rest of the session. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was just behind the Nasdaq with a +1.32% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) followed with a +0.81% and +0.38% gain respectively. The Nasdaq is nearing a new all-time high. The other major indexes are slightly farther from new all-time highs. The VIX volatility index declined by -4.52%. Energy (XLE +2.01%), Communications (XLC +1.81%), and Technology (XLK +1.30%) were top sectors for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.66%), Utilities (XLU -0.38%), and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.44%) were the only losing sectors. Having Real Estate and Utilities at the bottom is a significant change from the latter part of last week as investors reduced exposure in these defensive plays. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) dropped -0.29%. US 30y and US 10y treasury bond yields rose while US 2y treasury bonds dropped, widening the spread between longer term and shorter term bonds. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased for the day and are heading back to recent highs. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures also rose. Timber (WOOD) and Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped back to 0.553. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four mega-caps had gains for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain at +3.29% and moved above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) remains below its 21d EMA, but well-above the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) had gains for the day, but remain below both of these moving average lines. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), Facebook (FB) and Alibaba (BABA) were the top four mega-cap performers for the day. Most mega-caps gained for the day, however big retail Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Nike (NKE) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with losses. There were a lot of big winners in growth stocks. FUTU (FUTU) rose +16.85%. Magnite Inc (MGNI) gained +15.47%. Etsy (ETSY) and Fastly (FSLY) both rose around 8%. At the bottom of the growth stock list was Fiverr (FVRR) which lost -10.05% after an analyst downgraded the stock. Netflix (NFLX) was up over 12% after hours. Their earnings announcement included a record number of subscriptions, exceeding 200m for the first time, driving record revenue. That was enough to excite investors, despite Netflix missing expectations on earnings. They also are considering share buybacks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow is the inauguration of President Joe Biden. His remarks during the day will put more focus on his priorities and impact markets accordingly. Otherwise there is not much economic news for tomorrow. Earnings announcements tomorrow include United Health (UNH), Proctor & Gamble (PG), ASML Holding (ASML) and Morgan Stanley (MS), all before market open. United Airlines (UAL) will release their earnings announcement after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend line meets up with the long trend line from the 10/30 bottom, and points to a +1.08% gain and a new all-time high. The five-day trend line points to a -0.44% pullback. If there is further downside, 13,000 seems to be holding up well for the index. The 21d EMA is just over 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's a further downside move. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The index started the week on a positive note. The bullish afternoon trading points to more upside for tomorrow. President Biden is likely to give additional clues to his immediate actions in his inauguration speech. Some of those actions may create some rotations, but overall the fed and further stimulus should hold the broader market in a good place. Keep an eye on investor sentiment as confidence builds this week. The put/call ratio is at a very low level. The CNN Fear & Greed index is not too bad, considering the context. However, the NAAIM Exposure Index is above 100, which often proceeds pull backs. Recently, Aug 26 and Oct 14 were examples of this. However, it was above 100 in November and December with not much impact to the markets. Remain confident, but also cautious. Stay healthy and take care!

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