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Daily Market Update for 2/15Summary: Markets bounced back on the good news that Russia would reduce forces at the Ukraine border. The result was broad gains across the market and upward jumps in the major indexes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 15, 2022 Facts: +2.53%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 86% Green Good: Higher volume upward move with breadth gains (A/D ratio), closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, small lower wick, gap up at open Advance/Decline: 3.32, more than three advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.58%), DJI (+1.22%), RUT (+2.75%), VIX (-9.28%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +2.63%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.47%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets bounced back on the good news that Russia would reduce forces at the Ukraine border. The result was broad gains across the market and upward jumps in the major indexes. The Nasdaq gapped up at the open and closed the day with a +2.53% gain. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day but lower than the 50-day average. The candle has an 86% green body and a 98% closing range. A small lower wick formed at mid-day before the index rallied into a close. There were more than three stocks that gained for every stock that declined. Small-caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +2.75%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.22%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) fell by -9.32% but remained elevated. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose for the day. Technology (XLK +2.63%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) were the top two sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.47%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) were the only two to decline. Energy fell as the crisis eases in the Ukraine and pressures on oil prices alleviate. Economic data was not great for today. The Producer Price Index numbers for January were higher than expected, signaling further inflation coming for consumers. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February was lower than expected, printing 3.10 against the forecast of 12.15. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.32%. 30y and 10y US Treasury Yields advanced while the 2y yield declined, putting at least a pause on the flattening yield curve. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices improved while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold fell sharply as investors moved back to riskier assets. Crude Oil Futures declined on the Ukraine news. The put/call ratio declined to 0.759. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. All big six mega-caps advanced. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.32% to close above its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Tesla (TSLA) topped them all with a +5.33% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, advancing +9.18% today. The three mega-cap oil companies were at the bottom of the list. Exxon Mobile (XOM), Shell (SHEL), and Chevron (CVX) all lost more than 1%. Sea Limited (SE) bounced back from yesterday's huge loss, gaining +15.78% today and topping the Daily Update Growth List. Investors sold the stock yesterday on news that one of its popular games would be banned in India. They came back today after giving it a second thought and seeing Cathie Wood's Ark Investment firm buy into the dip. There was only one loser, Zynga (ZNGA), on the growth list. The company declined -by 0.11%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring Retail Sales data for January. Sales dipped more than expected in December and are expected to recover last month. We will also get Industrial Production and Business Inventories for January, both indicators for the economy. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers will be available after the market opens. Tech giants Nvidia (NVDA) and Cisco (CSCO) report earnings tomorrow evening. Applied Materials (AMAT), Shopify (SHOP), Synopsys (SNPS), Hilton (HLT), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Trade Desk (TTD), DoorDash (DASH), Hyatt (H), Quantamscape (QS), Crocs (CROX), and Fisker (FSR) are among others reporting tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq gapped up and gained throughout the day, closing below the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the trend line from the 1/24 low, it would mean a +1.18% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.50% advance. The five-day trend line ends with a -3.12% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up With Russia removing some troops from Ukraine, a conflict seems less likely. That helped ease oil prices and worries about even more inflation on top of already high inflation. The gap between long-term and short-term yields widened as the short-term outlook turned slightly better. There's still a lot of reason to expect volatility over the next few months. The dynamics looked good today, but there are unknowns with the Fed that won't start to be resolved until next month. For tomorrow, the expectation is Higher or Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/14Summary: It went up. It went down. In the end, there was no love or hate on Valentine's day as the Nasdaq closed where it opened. The indecision in the market comes among worries over Ukraine and how aggressively the Fed will deal with inflation. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 14, 2022 Facts: -0.00%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 49%, Body: 9% Green Good: Lower volume, Ok closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Spinning top signals indecision, thin body between equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.48, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.49%), RUT (-0.46%), VIX (+3.55%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.57%) and Communications (XLC +0.01%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.12%) and Energy (XLE -2.36%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It went up. It went down. In the end, there was no love or hate on Valentine's day as the Nasdaq closed where it opened. The indecision in the market comes among worries over Ukraine and how aggressively the Fed will deal with inflation. The Nasdaq closed flat for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. A rise in the morning created the upper wick while a sell-off in the early afternoon created the lower wick. The thin body of 9% left the index with only a -0.24 change, rounding to a 0% move. There were two stocks that declined for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -0.38% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -by 0.49%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -by 0.36%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +3.58%. Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.57%) and Communications (XLC +0.01%) ended the day with gains. Technology (XLK -0.03%) had a small loss. Financials (XLF -1.12%) and Energy (XLE -2.36%) were at the bottom of the list. Multiple Fed officials made appearances today. Bullard restated his view that interest rates should be at 1% by summer. Other Fed officials were more dovish, causing indecision among investors. The US Dollar strengthened compared to other currencies. The dollar index (DXY) rose +0.27%. Treasury Yields rose across the board while the gap between long-term and short-term yields continues to tighten. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold continued to climb as safe-haven assets. Crude Oil Futures hit another high. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.050, the second time it rose above 1.0 in a month. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in the Fear range. Four of the big six mega-caps ended the day with gains. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest move, rising by +1.83%, likely helped by the overwhelming presence of other Electric Vehicles during the Superbowl commercials. Meta (FB) continued to slide, falling -0.84% today. Tesla also topped the broader mega-cap list, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) which gained +1.33%. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) was at the bottom of the list, declining -by 2.16%. Digital Turbine (APPS) topped the Daily Update Growth List, rising by +5.84%. Sea Limited (SE) declined -by 18.39% after India banned one of its popular apps. That sent the stock to the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data for January will be available in the morning before the market opens. The data is another indicator of inflation as price increases for producers will eventually make it to consumers. Also released in the morning will be the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February. Airbnb (BNB), Zoetis (ZTTS), Fidelity (FIS), Marriott (MAR), Roblox (RBLX), Zoominfo (ZI), and SolarEdge (SEDG) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 13,800 support area and then recovered to close just below 13,800. If the index moves back to the trend line from the 1/24 low, it would mean a +3.89% gain. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.07% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, it leads to a -0.69% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market showed how undecided investors continue to be on what will happen in Ukraine and how the Fed will handle continued inflation. Not only did the index chop up and down, but the fact that the Nasdaq ended the day where it began is a signal of indecision. Another final signal is the low volume as investors didn't want to make large moves based on unknowns. With the lower high and lower low, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/11Summary: Worries rose this week over the Ukraine conflict's impact on inflation and driving a more hawkish response from the Fed. If you are not ok with the wild ride, hopefully you are on the sidelines. Notes I fat-fingered the date yesterday and then copied it through the entire publishing process. :( Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 11, 2022 Facts: -2.78%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 82% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Long red body, higher volume, low advance/decline, new low for the week Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, short upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.46, more than two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.90%), DJI (-1.43%), RUT (-1.02%), VIX (+14.43%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.91%) and Utilities (XLU +0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.87%) and Technology (XLK -3.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Worries rose this week over the Ukraine conflict's impact on inflation and driving a more hawkish response from the Fed. If you are not ok with the wild ride, hopefully, you are on the sidelines. The Nasdaq dropped -2.78% today. Volume was higher than Thursday while consistent selling throughout the day created an 83% red body. The 11% closing range put the index just below the 13,800 support area. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps lost but held up better than the other indexes. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.02%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) were down -1.90% and -1.43% respectively. The VIX Volatility Index rose +14.43%. The sentiment index soared more than 50% intraday. The one sector benefiting from the Ukraine crisis is Energy (XLE +2.91%) which stands to profit from soaring energy prices. Only one other sector gained today, the defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +0.06%). The other nine S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.87%) and Technology (XLK -3.05%) had the most significant losses. The Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers did not help with investors' worries. Consumer Sentiment was at 61.7 against a forecast of 67.5 and down from the previous month's number of 67.2. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all dropped. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply (opposite of Treasury prices), while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked along with Treasuries, rising today. Gold rose +1.75% to a new three-month high. Silver gained as well. Crude Oil Futures of course moved higher on the Ukraine worries. Other commodities were lower for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.972. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. Note that the Put/Call Options component (which says Extreme Greed) of this index seems to have some bad data. If this component showed the real numbers, the overall index would likely be in Extreme Greed now. All of the big six mega-caps declined sharply. Tesla (TSLA) dropped -by 4.93%. Meta (FB) bounced off its 21d EMA and ended the day with a -3.74% decline. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) also dropped below their 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are back below their 200d MA, dropping -3.13% and -2.43% today. The top three mega-caps for the day were all big Energy stocks. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both gained over 2%, while Royal Dutch Shell (SHEL) gained +1.27%. Recent gains for energy stocks helped Shell into the mega-cap category. The biggest loser in the mega-cap list was Nvidia (NVDA) with a -7.26% loss today. There were only three stocks that gained in the Daily Update Growth List. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were first and third, gaining +4.09% and +1.89%. Draft Kings (DKNG) was second in the list, rising +2.41% today. Cloudflare (NET) declined -by 9.52% to end up at the bottom of the list. The stock was up after hours yesterday thanks to a great earnings report and outlook, but the market is not able to stomach any risk right now so investors took profits. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Fed Reserve announced a closed-door meeting for Monday under expedited procedures to discuss interest rates. An early hike of interest rates is very likely. Advanced Auto Parts (APP) and Avis (CAR) reports earnings on Monday evening. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index landed at the 13,800 support area which was prior resistance. It's not a strong support area yet, but we'll see how it goes. If the index heads back to the trend line from the 1/24 bottom, it would require a +4.63% gain on Monday. The five-day trend line points to a +2.79% for the start of the week. If the one-day trend continues, it would mean another -3.82% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors offloaded risk and moved into safe havens today as the Ukraine conflict continues to evolve. The safe-haven US Dollar rose compared to other currencies. Treasury bond prices rose (prices rise when yields drop). Riskier Corporate bond prices declined. And equities fell. As inflation is at its highest in 40 years, it looks like it could go even higher with the Ukraine conflict. The Fed will meet for an expedited procedure on Monday, likely to start raising interest rates. The expectation for Monday is Lower. Once the news clears from the Fed's expedited meeting, we'll have a better picture of where things head from there. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/10Summary: Consumer Price data showed inflation at its highest in forty years, raising concerns that the Fed will be more hawkish in its March rate hike than previously thought. Treasury yields soared while equities pulled back. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 10, 2022 Facts: -2.10%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 17%, Body: 11% Red Good: Higher high Bad: Lower low, lower closing range, high volume on decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thin red body Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.81%), DJI (-1.47%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+19.79%) Sector List: Materials (XLB -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.62%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer Price data showed inflation at its highest in forty years, raising concerns that the Fed will be more hawkish in its March rate hike than previously thought. Treasury yields soared while equities pulled back. The Nasdaq declined -1.81% for the day. The index rallied after opening lower, passed yesterday's high, but then sold off the rest of the day as investors turned bearish. That left behind a long upper wick and a small 11% red body. The low closing range was 17%. The decline came on higher volume than the previous day and represented two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -1.81% led lower by big tech. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.55%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) did a little better with a -1.55% decline. It was helped by the Materials sector early morning rally. The VIX Volatility Index rose by 19.68% All eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors declined. Materials (XLB -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.62%) both rallied in the morning, helping them top the sector list for the day. Technology (XLK -2.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.85%) were the bottom two sectors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed an increase of 7.5% year-over-year, the largest increase in forty years. The Core CPI, which excludes oil and gas, increase 6.0% year-over-year. Initial Jobless Claims were at 223,000. The Fed's priority of a strong labor market appears healthy, allowing it to take a more hawkish approach to control inflation. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.25%. The US 2y Treasury Yield rose over 16% and topped 1.6% after markets closed. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields also rose sharply, but the gap between long-term and short-term yields squeezed considerably. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply along with Treasury prices. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to rise. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.708. That rise is less than one might expect given the conditions, but investors are likely betting on a brief CPI reaction and then rebound. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 66.8 from 62.54 the previous week. The survey of money managers is conducted on Wednesdays after the market closes. All big six mega-caps declined today. Tesla (TSLA) had the worst decline, falling -by 2.95%. It was followed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) which fell -2.84% and -2.36%. Walt Disney topped the mega-cap list with a +3.35% gain. The company showed a great post-pandemic recovery in its earnings report released yesterday. The only other mega-cap to gain today was Coca-Cola (KO) which gained +0.54% after beating analyst expectations in a morning earnings report. Adobe (ADBE) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -5.12% decline. DataDog (DDOG) smashed expectations in its earnings report and provided a great outlook. That sent the stock up nearly 20% intraday. It settled with a +12.28% gain to top the Daily Update Growth List. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was second in the list, gaining +5.67% on the passing of the Safe Banking Act in the House of Representatives which will benefit the cannabis industry. The bill passed thru the House six times but has yet to pass the Senate. DoorDash (DASH) was at the bottom of the Growth List with a -9.54% decline. As additional states pullback mask mandates and other pandemic measures, investors are expecting diners to return to restaurants. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Fed monetary Policy Report is due tomorrow morning. After the market opens, the Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers for February will be available. Do consumers see inflation easing or will they confirm fears of further price pressures? -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened lower, but then rallied until it hit resistance at 14,500 and fell back below the 21d EMA. I don't usually mention the 10d simple moving average, but it has provided support over the past six sessions. The index closed right above that line today. If the index returns to the longer trend, the five-day trend line, and the trend line from the low on 1/24, it would mean a +2.25% gain for Friday. The one-day trend line points to a -1.90% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up You can thank James Bullard of the St Louis Fed for today's reversal to the downside. The inflation data was enough to have markets open earlier, but Bullard's comments ended the morning rally. Bullard told the press that he would be open to additional rate hikes outside of regular meetings and wanted to see the rate at one percent by July. Ouch! We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how the market further digests that fear. Based on the chart, the expectation is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/9Summary: Markets closed sharply higher on Wednesday, led by big tech and broad gains across almost all segments. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 9, 2022 Facts: +2.08%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 76% Green Good: Closing range, high volume, advance/decline ratio Bad: Gap may need filled Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap-up at open, small lower wick, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.18, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.45%), DJI (+0.86%), RUT (+1.86%), VIX (-6.90%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.82%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.42%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets closed sharply higher on Wednesday, led by big tech and broad gains across almost all segments. The Nasdaq rose +2.08% after a gap-up at open. The strength of the move was supported by higher volume and broad gains across stocks in the index. More than two stocks advanced for every declining stock. A short dip after the open created a lower wick but did not close the gap from yesterday's high. The 76% green body and 100% closing range left behind no upper wick. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did very well for a third day, gaining +1.86%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +1.45%, helped by gains from all sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.86%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -6.90%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Communications (XLC +2.82%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.42%) were the top sectors. Utilities (XLU +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) were at the bottom. Crude Oil Inventories were lower than expected. The afternoon's 10y note auction showed strong demand, contributing to a dip in yields. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.07%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y Treasury yield rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices increased sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also rose. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum Futures all increased. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.664. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but remains in the Fear range. Of the big six mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined. The -0.14% pullback came after several days of gains and resistance at the 50d MA. Meta (FB) reversed from its post-earning losses, rising +5.37% today and helping the Communications sector outperform. Microsoft (MSFT) moved above its 21d EMA with a +2.18% advance today. Alphabet (GOOG) rose +1.57% to close back above its 50d MA. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, gaining +6.36%. The company ended its pursuit toward acquiring ARM, stating regulatory hurdles as the reason. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was at the bottom of the list, declining -by 1.57%. All stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Enphase (ENPH) rose by +12.03% to top the list. The company beat on earnings and revenue and provided a strong outlook for this year. Zynga (ZNGA) was at the bottom of the list but still advanced by +0.33%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The most anticipated economic news this week comes in the morning. It is the Consumer Price Index data for January which will give a read on inflation. The numbers are due at 8:30a. At the same time, we will get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. The earnings season continues to outperform analyst expectations. Tomorrow will bring earnings from Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Unilever (UL), Datadog (DDOG), DexCom (DXCM), Cloudflare (NET), Twitter (TWTR), Zillow (Z), InMode (INMD), and UpWork (UPWK) among others. Check your portfolio for earnings events as the list is long. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The gap-up for the Nasdaq started above the 21d EMA and the index continued to rise before hitting the 14,500 support/resistance area. If the one-day trend continues, expect a +0.72% advance for Thursday. The five-day trend line and trend line from the 1/24 low point to a -0.32% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are getting the types of signal that we like to see before a strong uptrend, but much will depend on what the inflation data tells the market tomorrow morning. Today's broad gains on higher volume are constructive and represent investors' reactions over a stronger-than-expected earnings season. We may see a lateral move tomorrow or a dip to fill the gap created this morning. A more severe decline would come if inflation data surprises high. The expectation based on the chart is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/8Summary: Equity indexes were led higher by cyclical and tech sectors while small-caps outperformed for another day, providing the breadth needed for good structural gains. Treasury yields continued higher, reaching levels not seen since the pandemic began. Notes In yesterday's (Monday) update, I included Wednesday's set of Economic News and Earning Reports for "Looking Ahead". It was past midnight in the US and I didn't notice I was looking at the wrong day. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 8, 2022 Facts: +1.28%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 89%, Body: 72% Green Good: Closing range, high advance/decline line, volume slightly higher on gain Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly green body, with short upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 1.7, more than three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.84%), DJI (+1.06%), RUT (+1.63%), VIX (-6.21%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.41%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.90%) and Energy (XLE -2.15%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity indexes were led higher by cyclical and tech sectors while small-caps outperformed for another day, providing the breadth needed for good structural gains. Treasury yields continued higher, reaching levels not seen since the pandemic began. The Nasdaq rose +1.28%, lifted by big tech and small growth stocks alike. The morning saw a dip lower than the previous day's low, but the index recovered to close with an 89% closing range. The upper wick didn't quite set a higher high. The lower low and lower high are not great but are offset by the 72% green body, high closing range, and higher volume. There were also more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes for a second day, advancing +1.63%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.06%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.84%. The VIX Volatility Index receded by -6.21%. Eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained, led by Materials (XLB +1.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.41%). At the bottom of the list were Real Estate (XLRE -0.90%) and Energy (XLE -2.15%). Although growth sectors did well, the Communications (XLC -0.04%) sector was weighed down by Meta (FB). Trade Balance data showed the US exporting more goods in December than expected. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) climbing +0.22%. Treasury yields rose for the day and are now at pre-pandemic levels. Although yield levels are returning to pre-pandemic levels, the yield curve is still steep relative to just before the pandemic crash when it was nearly flat. Both the High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Timber prices and Aluminum Futures are both up sharply today. Aluminum Futures are back to a multi-year high. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.743. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. Of the big six mega-caps, only Meta (FB) declined, falling another -2.10% and weighing down the communications sector. Amazon (AMZN) continues to advance, gaining +2.20% today and closing just below its 50d MA. China helped send Alibaba (BABA) to the top of the mega-cap list. The company gained +6.17% after China state-related funds entered the market to provide support. At the bottom of the mega-cap list is Pfizer (PFE). Pfizer declined -by 2.84% after missing revenue estimates in its earnings release. Peloton topped the Daily Update Growth List for a second day, gaining +25.28% on top of the +20% gain on Monday. Peloton was followed in the list by several Chinese growth stocks. RobinHood (HOOD) was at the bottom of the list for a second day, declining -by 3.81% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens tomorrow. Two Fed officials (Bowman and Mester) speak in the morning. There is a 10-year note auction scheduled for the afternoon. Toyota (TM ), Walt Disney (DIS), CVS (CVS), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Uber (UBER), Honda (HMC), Yum! Brands (YUM), Twilio (TWLO), and Zynga (ZNGA) are some of the significant earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is nearing the 21d EMA again as it attempts to return to a longer-term upper trend. The one-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/24 low both point to a +1.26% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a -1.46% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investor sentiment remains at a bearish level. The put/call ratio continues to show a high amount of put hedging. The ratio's multi-day average is at its highest since March 2020. The safe-haven demand component of the CNN Fear & Greed index is high. That means many investors have their money on the sidelines. That is confirmed by the low exposure index from the NAAIM money manager survey. So when things are this bearish, we're looking for turning points where investors might come rushing back into the market and give us another multi-week or even multi-month gain. The last three days including Friday, have shown some change in the market. The advance/decline line was above 1.0 all three days which means more stocks gaining than declining. Today, big tech joined the gains as well which helped the Nasdaq move up in addition to small-caps. And support from China state-related funds into Chinese equities also pulls some risk out of the market. There are no guarantees, but perhaps the market is ready for a solid period of gains, at least until the Fed acts in March. For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/7Summary: Small-caps outperformed while Meta continued to weigh on major indexes, creating a volatile day for equities. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 7, 2022 Facts: -0.58%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 16%, Body: 39% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, advance/decline line Bad: Decline on higher volume, closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Longer upper wick over a red body, low closing range Advance/Decline: 1.43, almost three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.37%), DJI (+0.00%), RUT (+0.51%), VIX (-1.55%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.28%) and Financials (XLF +0.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.66%) and Communications (XLC -1.74%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small-caps outperformed while Meta continued to weigh on major indexes, creating a volatile day for equities. The Nasdaq was down -0.58% for the day. Volume was higher for the day. A rally in the first 20 minutes created a long upper wick and a higher high than the previous day. The rally faded and eventually the index sold into the close, creating a closing range of 16% under a 39% red body. Despite the decline with higher volume, there were almost three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed for the day as small-caps got some attention, lifting the index by +0.51%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -by 0.37% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended the day flat. The VIX Volatility Index declined -by 1.51%. Five out of the eleven S&P 500 indexes advanced. Energy (XLE +1.28%) and Financials (XLF +0.30%) were the best two sectors. Technology (XLK -0.66%) and Communications (XLC -1.74%) were at the bottom of the list. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.07%. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields rose while the 2y Treasury yield declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate bond prices increased. Crude Oil Futures finally declined a big after climbing sharply last week. Aluminum Futures hit a high for 2022. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.729. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear range. Of the big six mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) ended the day in the positive, gaining +0.19%. Meta (FB) dragged the market down with a -5.14% decline. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped back below its 50d MA with a -2.86% decline. Novo Nordisk (NVO) was the top-performing mega-cap for today. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Alibaba (BABA), declining -by 6.05%. Peloton (PTON) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +20.93% swing to the positive. Rumors emerged this weekend that several companies, including Amazon and Nike, were looking at a potential acquisition of the beaten-down company. The biggest loser in the Growth List was RobinHood (HOOD), dropping -by 8.37%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens tomorrow. Two Fed officials (Bowman and Mester) speak in the morning. There is a 10-year note auction scheduled for the afternoon. Toyota (TM ), Walt Disney (DIS), CVS (CVS), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Uber (UBER), Honda (HMC), Yum! Brands (YUM), Twilio (TWLO), and Zynga (ZNGA) are some of the significant earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index whipped up and down today in a sideways move, ending with a sell-off at close for a decline. If the index returns to the trend line from the 1/24 low, that would mean a +2.56% gain for tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.37% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors can expect more twists and turns as the market rotates from one risk asset to the next, looking for returns while reducing exposure to Inflation and Interest rates. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/4Summary: Amazon helped markets move higher on Friday, but some trepidation remained for investors who are worried about a hawkish Fed. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 4, 2022 Facts: +1.58%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 66%, Body: 37% Green Good: Higher high, good closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower low, volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Similar length upper and lower wicks with a medium-size green body Advance/Decline: 1.68, more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (-0.06%), RUT (+0.57%), VIX (-4.68%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.84%) and Financials (XLF +1.70%) at the top. Real Estate (XRE -1.37%) and Materials (XLB -1.66%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Amazon helped markets move higher on Friday, but some trepidation remained for investors who are worried about a hawkish Fed. The Nasdaq gained +1.58%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has similar length upper and lower wicks with a 66% green body in the middle of the candle. The higher high is great and the closing range is good. However, the lower low in the morning was a surprise and a sell-off before close, creating the upper wick, shows nervous investors heading into a weekend. There were more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52% and the Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.57%. The Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJI), weighed down by large cyclicals, declined -by 0.06%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated but declined by -4.68% today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.84%) was the top sector for the day, led higher by Amazon. Financials (XLF +1.70%) was the next best sector, helped by rising yields on Treasuries. Real Estate (XRE -1.37%) and Materials (XLB -1.66%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The employment data released in the morning showed a robust labor market which is good for the economy, but bad for investors who see more reason for the Fed to be hawkish. Nonfarm Payrolls for January defied expectations by adding 467,000 jobs. Analysts expected a much lower number of 150,000 due to Omicron. Average Hourly Earnings increased 5.7% year-over-year, more than the expected 5.2% increase, signaling sticky inflation. The US Dollar strengthened for the first time in five days. The index (DXY) rose +0.13%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply on expectations of a more hawkish Fed. As yields rise, prices drop and Corporate Bond prices follow big moves in Treasuries. Both the High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were sharply lower for the day. Crude Oil Futures continue to soar higher, rising +3.93% today, likely due to both increased demand outlook and potential supply disruption from possible actions in Ukraine. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.808. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index showed an increase in exposure, rising to 62.54 from 53.39 the previous week. The exposure index is released on Wednesday nights, so does not reflect Thursday's market declines. Four of the big six mega-caps gained for the day. Amazon (AMZN) added $150 billion to its market cap, the largest rise in history on the day after Meta (FB) recorded the largest market cap loss in history. Amazon gained +13.54% after an exemplary fourth-quarter earnings report and 2022 outlook for the business. Tesla (TSLA) rose +3.61%. Microsoft (MSFT) hit resistance at its 21d EMA but closed with a +1.56% gain. Apple (AAPL) got support at its 50d MA but closed -0.29% lower. Amazon was the best mega-cap for the day. Bank of America (BAC) was second with a +3.98% gain, followed by Tesla. Novo Nordisk (NVO) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.74% decline after missing analyst profit estimates. Snap (SNAP) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a whopping +58.82% gain after reporting huge user growth and ad sales. Pinterest (PINS) was third on the list, gaining +11.18%. The two smaller players put further pressure on Meta after the top social network blamed Apple and TikTok for declines in their business. D.R. Horton (DHI) was at the bottom of the list, falling -by 4.72% along with the Real Estate sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead It will be a quiet start to the week for economic news with no significant events planned for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had an outside day today with the low and high both outside yesterday's low and high. It's representative of continued volatility in equity markets. If the one-day trend continues, that would follow the trend-line from the 1/24 low and mean a +2.27% gain on Monday. If the index follows the five-day trend, that would result in a -0.04% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors are torn between an economy that's continuing to show strength and what that means for Fed action later this year. Will the Fed raise rates three times, four times, six times? Will the March rate hike by 0.25% or 0.50%? Estimates are all across the board among analysts. Those who believe inflation will begin to ease see a more dovish Fed and fewer rate hikes. Those who believe inflation will stay high expect a more hawkish Fed and higher rate hikes. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/3Summary: Meta killed the rally. Perhaps Amazon can restart it. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 3, 2022 Facts: -3.74%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 7% (w/gap), Body: 47% Red Good: Stayed above 13,800. Lower volume despite gap-down at open. Bad: Failed intraday rally, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap-down at open, long upper wick over red body Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.44%), DJI (-1.45%), RUT (-1.90%), VIX (+10.23%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) and Health (XLV -0.43%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.06%) and Communications (XLC -6.69%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Meta killed the rally. Perhaps Amazon can restart it. The Nasdaq closed down by -3.74% on Thursday, its worst decline since September 2020. After a gap-down at open, a rally attempt in the morning could close the gap, creating a long upper wick above a 47% red body as the rally turned into more losses. The closing range was 7% with the gap. The only potential positive is the lower volume. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -by 2.44%, led lower by growth sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -by 1.45%. Small-caps didn't do too bad relatively speaking, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) down -1.90%. The VIX Volatility Index bounced up by -10.24%. Among the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) held in the positive for the day. That was followed by Health (XLV -0.43%) as the next best sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.06%) and Communications (XLC -6.69%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Positive economic data wasn't enough to save sentiment. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims was lower than expected. There were 238,000 claims compared to the forecast of 245,000 claims. In a surprise for the labor market, Nonfarm Productivity for Q4 rose by 6.6% compared to the expected 3.2%. Unit Labor Costs for Q4 were expected to rise 1.5%, but increased by only 0.3%. Purchasing Managers Index data for the Non-Manufacturing / Services sector were both higher than forecasted. The indexes show the sector is improving, but not quite at the accelerated pace of previous months. The Bank of England followed through with an expected interest rate hike of 0.25%, bringing the interest rate to 0.50%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to fall. It declined -by 0.67% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose for the day. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Silver and Gold declined. Crude Oil Futures moved ever higher. The put/call ratio rose to 0.955. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index showed an increase in exposure, rising to 62.54 from 53.39 the previous week. The exposure index is released on Wednesday nights. All big six mega-caps declined. Meta (FB) led the way with a -26.39% decline, erasing more than $250 billion in market value and dropping below Tesla (TSLA) in market cap. Ouch. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -7.81% for the day, but is up nearly 15% in after-hours thanks to a great fourth-quarter earnings report. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped back below its 21d EMA with a -3.90% decline. Only a handful of mega-caps gained for the day. UnitedHealth (UNG) topped the list with a +1.87% gain. The health services provider is heading toward a new all-time high. Amazon and Facebook were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. In the Daily Update Growth List, only RobinHood (HOOD) and Alibaba (BABA) ended the day in the positive. They advanced +0.93% and +0.48% respectively. Helped to the bottom of the list by Facebook and the communications sector sell-off was Snap (SNAP). Snap declined -by 23.60% for the day. However, the company beat earnings expectations with 42% revenue growth and a first-time net profit. The company soared 60% in after-hours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data will be available in the morning. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate for January are the most significant of the metrics to be released before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell back below the 21d EMA today and is approaching the 13,800 area which may turn to support. If the index rallies to return to the trend line from the 1.24 low, that would mean a +4.60% advance for Friday. The five-day trend line points to a +3.85%. If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a -1.44% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Meta lost more than $250 billion of market cap in one day. That's the largest since Apple's huge loss in 2020. It was enough to have an impact across the entire communications sector and the entire market. Now we have earnings beats from Amazon, Snap, and Pinterest today. Is it enough to lift indexes back into the recent upward trend? Can we get a breadth of gains across the market on higher volume on Friday? That would help with investor sentiment heading into the weekend. The big six earnings are all out now. Five of the six mega-caps beat expectations. Four of the six provided positive surprises on guidance as well. Add to that numerous positive reports from the rest of the market, and corporate America appears to be very healthy. The labor data today is interesting. The slower increase in labor costs could help tame inflation in Q1. Add to that the typical slowdown in shipping which could alleviate high container costs and allow the whole system to unclog. We could start to see opinions change toward how hawkish the Fed will be this year. As for the chart, I don't count after-hours activity in expectations. So the expectation is still Lower for tomorrow, but we will likely get a surprise Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/2Summary: The rally in the Nasdaq slowed on Wednesday as investors took profits in some sectors while chasing a more select set of companies turning in great earnings this past two weeks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 2, 2022 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 32% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, decent closing range Bad: Red body, lower volume gain, low advance/decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under a thin red body Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.94%), DJI (+0.63%), RUT (-1.03%), VIX (+0.59%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.00%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.31%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.60%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rally in the Nasdaq slowed on Wednesday as investors took profits in some sectors while chasing a more select set of companies turning in great earnings this past two weeks. The Nasdaq gained +0.50% for the day. The index opened with a gap up but declined through the morning to create a long lower wick. The recovery in the afternoon left behind a 32% red body and a 64% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.94%, led higher by Alphabet's huge gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.63%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.03%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose by +0.59%. Communications (XLC +2.00%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) were the top two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors. Only one sector, Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.60%) declined. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for January showed a decline of 301,000 payrolls vs an expected increase of 207,000. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its fall, declining -by 0.29% today. Treasury Yields are relatively steady with small declines across the 30y, 10y, and 2y yield. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased. Crude Oil Futures continues to rise. Timber and Copper Futures are also on the rise while Aluminum Futures is falling. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.751. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. Four of the big six gained today. Alphabet (GOOG) was the big winner with a +7.52%. The stock was up over 10% intraday, setting a new all-time high but couldn't hold on for a record close. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.52% to close above its 21d EMA. Meta (FB) rose +1.25% but is down over 20% after hours, disappointing investors with missed earnings expectations. Google was at the top of the mega-cap list, followed by Qualcomm (QCOM) which rose +6.25% in anticipation of earnings which turned out great. Despite the great earnings, the stock is down after hours. Alibaba (BABA) is at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The stock remains volatile with a -3.41% decline today. There were only four stocks with gains in the Daily Update Growth List. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the list, gaining +2.45% today. At the bottom of the list was PayPal (PYPL) which declined -24.59 after missing most business metrics and lowering its outlook in its earnings call yesterday. That also brought down Block (SQ) by -10.63%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly jobless claims will be available before the market opens tomorrow. We'll also have the Q4 Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data at the same time. After the market opens, we'll get Non-Manufacturing / Services Purchasing Managers Index data for January that shows if the sector is growing or shrinking in economic activity. Amazon (AMZN) will round out the big six earnings reports for this season. In addition, we'll get earnings for Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Shell (SHEL), Honeywell (HON), Ford Motor (F), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Snap (SNAP), Unity Software (U), Pinterest (PINS), and Paylocity (PCTY). The list of reports for Thursday is long and these are just a few relevant to the Daily Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed just above the 21d EMA today. The index hit resistance at 14,500 after opening, slid through the morning but regained ground to close higher. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +2.48% advance for Thursday. The one-day trend line and trend line from the 1/24 low point to a +0.21% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Great earnings reports have helped the Nasdaq rally. However, the disappointment on Facebook earnings could derail things tomorrow. Overall, the earnings season is still strong, but the size of Facebook will influence the entire market, especially with a severe reaction to the miss. Based on the chart the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways, but a move Lower would not be a huge surprise. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/1Summary: Stock indexes rose along with optimism as corporate America continues to provide earnings beats and positive outlooks for 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 1, 2022 Facts: +0.75%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 96%, Body: 24% Green Good: Higher high and higher low, high closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under a thin green body Advance/Decline: 2.76, Five advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.69%), DJI (+0.78%), RUT (+1.10%), VIX (-11.56%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Materials (XLB +1.54%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -1.33%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stock indexes rose along with optimism as corporate America continues to provide earnings beats and positive outlooks for 2022. The Nasdaq rose +0.75% for the day after dipping in the morning. Volume was lower than the previous day, but gaining stocks continued to outnumber declining stocks at a 5:2 ratio. The dip in the morning formed a long lower wick, but the index recovered to create a 24% green body and a 96% closing range. Small-caps outperformed today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small-cap index rose +1.10%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.69%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed +0.78% higher. The VIX Volatility Index continues to recede, falling -11.52% today. Only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors declined today, all defensive sectors. Energy (XLE +3.56%) led the sector list, having another record close. The sector was lifted by great earnings from Exxon Mobile (XOM). Materials (XLB +1.54%) was the second-best sector. Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -1.33%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January was lower than the previous month but higher than the forecast. JOLTs Job Openings improved in December to 10.925m against an expected 10.3m. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed more demand than forecasted with supplies dipping to -1.645m vs the expectation of a 1.833m barrel surplus. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -by 0.39%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield dropped. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices decreased. Silver and Gold advanced, primarily on the weakening dollar. Crude Oil Futures are holding near recent highs. The put/call ratio declined to 0.738. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. Three of the big six mega-caps gained. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +1.73% ahead of earnings and closed above its 21d EMA. The stock was up 10% in after-hours thanks to an earnings beat and a positive outlook for 2022. Meta (FB) also closed above its 21d EMA, advancing +1.83% today. Microsoft (MSFT) closed just below its 21d EMA, declining -by 0.71%. United Parcel Service (UPS) was the top-performer in the mega-cap list, soaring +14.08% today on an earnings surprise, beating almost every business metric for the company and raising revenue guidance. Toyota Motor (TM ) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -by 1.02%. All but two stocks advanced in the Daily Update Growth List. Draft Kings (DKNG) topped the list, climbing +7.20% today. Etsy (ETSY) dropped -by 3.13%, ending up at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is an OPEC Meeting scheduled for the early morning. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data will be available before the market opens. After the market opens, the Weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be released. Facebook (FB) will be the top earnings report for tomorrow, but there are many more. Alibaba (BABA), AbbVie (ABBV), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Qualcomm (QCOM), T-Mobile (TMUS), Spotify (SPOT), and DR Horton (DHI) are some that stand out as notable for the Daily Market Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is approaching the 21d EMA but remained below the line today. Trend lines are within a relatively tight range. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +0.59% advance for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.13% decline. The trend line from the 1/24 low ends with a -0.75% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This earnings season is showing that public companies continue to show earnings and revenue growth that beat expectations. More importantly, those companies are providing outlooks for 2022 that are higher than expected. The result is investors are seemingly putting aside fears over inflation and interest rate hikes by the Fed. We can still expect volatility as the Fed rolls out new monetary policy, but it appears there is still constructive growth that will happen in 2022. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/31Summary: The market took a big step forward to end what was a difficult January. Investors poured back into equities after comments from the US Treasury's top economist that they see inflation easing in 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. In the past, I focused on the largest four mega-caps. From today, I will start tracking the largest six mega-caps moving forward. These six companies represent nearly 25% of the S&P 500 so have an outsized influence on index performance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 31, 2022 Facts: +3.41%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 90% Green Good: Great advance/decline ratio, gain on higher volume, closing range of 99% Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 4.53, more than four advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.89%), DJI (+1.17%), RUT (+3.05%), VIX (-10.23%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.85%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) at the top. Energy (XLE +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.38%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market took a big step forward to end what was a difficult January. Investors poured back into equities after comments from the US Treasury's top economist that they see inflation easing in 2022. The Nasdaq rose +3.41% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day and higher than the 50-day average volume. The candle has a tiny lower wick under a 90% green body. The 99% closing range left behind no upper wick. There was great breadth, with 4.5 stocks advancing for every stock that declined. Small-caps also performed well for the day, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) advancing +3.05%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed +1.89% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +1.17%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -10.24%, but still remains elevated. All S&P 500 sectors advanced. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.85%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) were the best-performing sectors. Energy (XLE +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.38%) were at the bottom of the list. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a healthy manufacturing sector for January. The index rose to 65.2 from 64.3 the previous month. Analysts expected it to drop to 61.7. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.59% after rising through most of January. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury yields all rose. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices improved. Silver declined while Gold advanced. Crude Oil Futures remains very high. The put/call ratio declined to 0.818. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained at the Fear level. All of the big six meg-caps advanced for the day. Tesla (TSLA) outperformed the group, advancing +10.68% as it rebounded off its 200d MA. Apple (AAPL) continued to rise above its 21d EMA and 50d MA, advancing +2.61%. Microsoft (MSFT) moved back above its 21d EMA with a +0.88% gain today. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta (FB) are all still trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Tesla topped the full mega-cap list, followed by Alibaba (BABA) which gained +9.16%. Only five mega-caps declined with Pfizer (PFE) losing -3.02% to end up at the bottom of the list. The entire daily update growth list did very well today. The top gainers included Fiverr (FVRR) and NIO (NIO), both advancing over 17%. Even the bottom of the list had great advances. RH was the worst performer on the list but gained +2.78% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We will get more manufacturing data after the market opens tomorrow. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 10 am. At the same time, the JOLTs Job Openings report for December will be available. The jobs report could be skewed by the Omicron outbreak. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report is due in the afternoon. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will be the top earnings reports to watch for tomorrow. Also on the long list of reports is PayPal (PYPL), United Parcel Service (UPS), AMD (AMD), Starbucks (SBUX) Chubb (CB), General Motors (GM), and Electronic Arts (EA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq made a big move back toward the 21d EMA. If the one-day trend line continues, the index could advance +1.29% on Tuesday and close back above the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the five-day trend line and trend line from the 1/24 low, that would mean a -2.00% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's likely we'll continue to get mixed signals about inflation. There is a supply-side and a demand-side to the story. And both have different data points that economists will continue to watch. They will then weigh those signals against predictions on the Fed's monetary policy. Demand was high in 2021 as consumers unleashed record savings and available credit into the economy, but is now starting to ease. That can be seen in the drop-off of retail sales in December. Supply has been hampered by issues that range from having enough workers to produce goods to having enough containers to ship goods across the world. As China goes into their New Year holiday, that should ease congestion for a time being and give a chance for some catch-up. So we actually could be on the cusp of easing inflation as the US Treasury predicts. If so, we can expect the Fed to restrain itself from raising interest rates too aggressively and that will ease fears among analysts and investors. Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Possibly Sideways because of the huge move we saw today. Possibly Higher because of the momentum. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/28Summary: We ended a volatile week with one more whipsaw day. Thankfully, this one whipped to the upside. It seems the strong earnings week finally lifted sentiment in the market, overcoming fears of inflation and geopolitical events. Will it stick? Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 28, 2022 Facts: +3.13%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 62% Green Good: Closing range, higher high, great breadth (a/d) Bad: Lower low, volume lower on gain Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick underneath thick green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.79, more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+2.43%), DJI (+1.65%), RUT (+1.93%), VIX (-9.28%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +4.37%) and Real Estate (XLRE +3.47%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.42%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview We ended a volatile week with one more whipsaw day. Thankfully, this one whipped to the upside. It seems the strong earnings week finally lifted sentiment in the market, overcoming fears of inflation and geopolitical events. Will it stick? The Nasdaq gained +3.13% by the end of the day. A dip in the morning created a long lower wick, but then the bulls came back in to end the day with gains. The 62% green body sits above the long lower wick. The 100% closing range leaves behind no upper wick. Volume was lower than the previous day. There were more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the second-best index. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were helped by Apple (AAPL) which crushed earnings estimates on Thursday evening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +1.65%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed +1.93%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped back by -9.28% but remains elevated. Ten out of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Technology (XLK +4.37%) and Real Estate (XLRE +3.47%) were the top sectors. Materials (XLB +0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.42%) were the bottom two sectors. Core PCE Price Index data was just slightly higher than forecast, coming in at 4.9% year-over-year. 4.8% was expected. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations were both lower than the forecast. The US Dollar index (DXY) was steady, rising just +0.01% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold continued to tumble, losing -1.34% and -0.34% today. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.953. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is at 53.39, down from 56.73 last week. All four largest mega-caps had significant gains. Apple (AAPL) soared +6.98% to close back above its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +2.81% to close just below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +3.37% and closed just below its 200d MA. Amazon (AMZN) rose +3.11% but had more work to get back to moving averages. Visa (V) and Mastercard (M) were the top mega-caps for the day. Visa gained +1.60% while Mastercard advanced +9.12%. The stocks were lifted by Visa's earnings beat and optimistic outlook on travel spending. There was only one mega-cap in the list to decline. It was Chevron (CVX) which declined -by 3.52%, giving back some of the year-to-date gains. It had risen 16% since the new year. In a surprise reversal from overnight sentiment, Robinhood (HOOD) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +9.65% advance. Robinhood sank in after-hours yesterday, disappointing investors with almost all of its business metrics. Only a handful of stocks on the list declined. Ehang Holdings (EH) was the biggest loser, dropping -6.51%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news for Monday. Several Asian markets will be closed on Monday for the New Year holidays. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index data will be available Monday after the market opens. Next week will be another big week for earnings, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (FB), and Amazon (AMZN). However, Monday doesn't have any earnings reports relevant to this update. Check your own portfolio for earnings events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq was up and down today but ended the day with an afternoon rally. There seems to be a support/resistance area around 13,800 and the index closed just below that area. If the one-day trend continues, expect a +1.72% advance on Monday. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.21% decline. If the index is to return to the trend line from the 1/12 high, it would mean a -5.28% drop. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq ended a wild week with a +0.01% gain. Not much, but still ends a four-week losing streak. It remains to be seen if this is just a pause before further declines or if the market is getting more support. Is the Fed going to simply take the foot off the gas that has been accelerating growth in the economy, or will it put on the brakes? That's the question large institutions need to answer for themselves. If it is the former, we'll see more support coming into the market with a few higher volume green days. Next, we will need to see investors that have taken profits and moved to the sidelines reengage. That will show up win breath thrust indicators. The most popular one, the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator is on day one of ten today. The indicator rarely triggers, but if it did, it would provide new life to the bull market. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. If we get Lower, we can expect more volatility ahead. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/27Summary: It was another tough day for the stock market. Indexes opened higher, but then faded throughout the day to close lower. The rally attempt from Monday's low is still intact but the performance since then isn't looking good. Will indexes fail Monday's low and go further down, or will they find support and move higher? Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 27, 2022 Facts: -1.40%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 7%, Body: 81% Red Good: Volume lower on the decline Bad: Closing range, low advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.27, nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (-0.02%), RUT (-2.29%), VIX (-4.60%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.09%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.42%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was another tough day for the stock market. Indexes opened higher, but then faded throughout the day to close lower. The rally attempt from Monday's low is still intact but the performance since then isn't looking good. Will indexes fail Monday's low and go further down, or will they find support and move higher? The Nasdaq dropped -1.4% for the day. Volume was less than the previous day. The index opened the day in the positive but then sold off throughout the session, creating a thick red body that covers 81% of the candle. The tiny lower wick left behind a 7% closing range. There were nearly four stocks that declined for every stock that advanced. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held up the best, declining only -0.02% thanks for Energy and Cyclical stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.54%. Small-caps took another hit on the chin with a drop of -2.29% in the Russell 2000 (RUT). Despite the declines, the VIX Volatility Index was lower by -4.60%. Six of the eleven sectors ended the day with gains. The top sector was Energy (XLE +1.09%), followed by the defensive sectors of Utilities (XLU +0.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.67%). The bottom two sectors were Real Estate (XLRE -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.42%) at the bottom. GDP data showed the economy expanded by 6.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q43 compared to the forecast of 5.5%. Core Durable Goods Orders (which excludes transportation items) for December met expectations, but total Durable Goods Orders fell by -0.9%. That was more than the -0.5% expected decline. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims were at the forecast with 260,000 claims this week. The US dollar is at its strongest since 2020, with the index (DXY) gaining +0.75% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y yield rose. The gap between long term and short term treasury yields continues to tighten. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continue to plummet while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose slightly. Silver and Gold are both dropping sharply as the dollar rises. Crude Oil Futures took off again hitting new highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.903. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is at 53.39, down from 56.73 last week. Of the four largest mega-caps, Amazon (AMZN)and Microsoft (MSFT) held onto intraday gains, ending with +0.55% and +1.05% advances. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.29% but is expected to reverse those losses after a surprisingly good earnings report and the declaration that supply chain issues are easing. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.18%. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is at the top of the mega-cap list, gaining +2.51%. That's followed by Chevron (CVX) which gained +2.02% ahead of its Friday earnings report. Tesla (TSLA) dropped -11.55%, weighing down the entire EV sector and placing the mega-cap at the bottom of the list. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) were also near the bottom of the list as semiconductors continue to fall. ServiceNow (NOW) pleased investors with its earnings report, rising to the top of the Daily Update Growth List with a +9.14% gain today. Netflix (NFLX) took back some of its losses after getting a shot of optimism from Bill Ackman declaring he was buying more. Tesla was also the worst growth stock of the day, followed by three Chinese EV stocks. RobinHood (HOOD) dropped -6.45% and then added another -12.58% after hours with terrible misses across its business. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Inflation will be back in focus tomorrow with the PCE Price Index data for December being available in the morning. After the market opens, we'll see the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data for January. The earnings season continues to be mostly positive. Tomorrow will bring reports from Chevron (CVX) and Caterpillar (CAT) among a smaller list than Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had a lower high and lower low today, but held above Monday's low, keeping alive the potential for a market rally. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +0.75% gain for Friday. The trend line from the 1/12 high ends with a -2.01% decline. Continuing the one-day trend would mean a -3.65% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Among all the worrying about inflation and the Fed tightening monetary policy, it's easy to miss out on the fact that it's all happening because of an expanding economy driven by an exceptional performance from US companies. The evidence is in the earnings reports from Microsoft and Apple. Even Tesla had great results (and guidance) despite sharing that there would be no new models for 2022. Apple shared some really great news today. Not only did it smash holiday records, but said that supply chain issues were easing. That's in contrast to supply chain concerns that Tesla shared in its earnings report yesterday. So investors will continue to be pulled between worries about the Fed tightening monetary policy and the exceptional performance of the US economy. Of course, the Fed tightening has the purpose of slowing down the economy, but so far it appears that corporate America remains confident. If supply chain issues are easing, that's even a better outlook. That means the Fed can tighten without impacting employment or causing a recession (marked by two quarters of decline in GDP). Based on the chart, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower. But cross our fingers for a positive day helped by Apple's rosy outlook. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 1/26Summary: Jerome Powell says Inflation is bad and possibly getting worse. While the initial release from the Fed meeting met expectations, which predicted an interest rate hike in March, markets turned fearful again when comments from Powell showed much more concern than anticipated. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 26, 2022 Facts: +0.02%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 25%, Body: 54% Red Good: Higher high and held onto a gain for the day Bad: Lost intraday momentum to make a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, equal size upper and lower wicks surround a red body Advance/Decline: 0.5, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.15%), DJI (-0.38%), RUT (-1.38%), VIX (+2.57%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.59%) and Financials (XLF +0.26%) at the top. Communications (XLC -1.46%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Jerome Powell says Inflation is bad and possibly getting worse. While the initial release from the Fed meeting met expectations, which predicted an interest rate hike in March, markets turned fearful again when comments from Powell showed much more concern than anticipated. The Nasdaq barely held onto the daily gain, advancing just +0.02% after being up +3.42% intraday. Volume was higher thanks to the volatility. The 54% red body sits in between equal size upper and lower wicks. The upper wick formed from the intraday gains while the lower wick formed during the fear-induced sell-off. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.38%. The VIX Volatility Index was on the decline but reversed to its highest close since one year ago, when the Fed also caused panic among investors. Technology (XLK +0.59%) and Financials (XLF +0.26%) were the only two sectors to hold onto gains for the day. Communications (XLC -1.46%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) ended at the bottom of the list. After the Jerome Powell speech all sectors sold off, but the defensive sectors of Utilities (XLU -0.82%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.76%) had the smallest declines. The day started off with mixed economic news. The Goods Trade Balance (Dec) show the US was importing far more than it was exporting. Analysts expected a -96.10B imbalance but the actual was -100.96B. New Home Sales for December outpaced expectations. There were 811,000 sales vs the expected 760,000. Crude Oil Inventories showed less demand than forecasted. The biggest economic news for the day was from the Fed. They confirmed a timeline for March to start increasing interest rates and begin reducing the balance sheet. That initial information was Ok with the market, causing a short rally. The rally was ended by Jerome Powell's speech which raised concern about a worsening situation with inflation. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.54% for the day. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose while the gap between long term and short term treasuries narrowed. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Gold and Silver both dropped, relative to the dollars increase. The put/call ratio rose to 0.758. The CNN Fear & Greed index continued to move further into the Fear range. Microsoft (MSFT) outperformed the other largest mega-caps. After beating earnings expectations and providing a positive surprise for 2022 guidance, the company was up +6.76% intraday. Microsoft held onto a +2.85% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) also closed the day in the positive, gaining +1.81%. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.06% and Amazon (AMZN) was down -0.80%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) was the top mega-cap today, winning some favorable analyst praise and a +4.20% advance. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, losing -4.84%. The Daily Update Growth List lost a lot of gainers after the Fed meeting, but some held on to finish in the green. The top performer was Draft Kings (DKNG) which gained +5.23% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to equal weight. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) declined -7.36% to end up at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will start with the Durable Goods Orders data for December. We'll also get a reading on GDP for Q4 of 2021. The weekly jobless claims data will be available before the market opens and Pending Home Sales for December will print after the market opens. Apple (AAPL) is the big earnings report for tomorrow. Will the positive earnings week continue? In addition to Apple, Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), McDonald's (MCD), SAP (SAP), Atlassian (TEAM), Western Digital (WD), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are among many companies reporting earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied today but then gave up the gains to close just above yesterday's close. The one-day trend line points to a -1.10% decline for tomorrow. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/12 high point to a -2.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Shock is never a good thing for investors and Jerome Powell's comments today set off nerves driving selling in the late afternoon. Now that the market is closed, analysts can look closer at his comments and reassess what they think the Fed's timeline is for interest rate hikes and reducing the balance sheet. We'll see what the institutional opinion is in tomorrow's market moves. After an inside day, following by a volatile outside day, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/25Summary: Markets were lower on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The energy sector tracked oil prices hire on fears that the Ukraine standoff would put pressure on supplies. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 25, 2022 Facts: -2.28%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 34%, Body: 19% Red Good: Higher low, less volume on decline Bad: Lower high, failed rally in afternoon Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, spinning top indicating indecision Advance/Decline: 0.75, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-1.22%), DJI (-0.19%), RUT (-1.45%), VIX (+4.21%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.88%) and Financials (XLF +0.42%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.05%) and Technology (XLK -2.31%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets were lower on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The energy sector tracked oil prices hire on fears that the Ukraine standoff would put pressure on supplies. The Nasdaq fell -2.28% for the day. Despite the decline, volume was lower than the previous day and the spinning top candle with a lower high and higher low indicate indecision in the market. The 19% red body sits in the middle of the candle above a 34% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was down only -0.19% thanks to outperformance in large Energy and Financial stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.22%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.45%. The VIX Volatility Index climbed +4.21%. Energy (XLE +3.88%) and Financials (XLF +0.42%) were at the top of the sector list. Communications (XLC -2.05%) and Technology (XLK -2.31%) were at the bottom. Consumer Confidence for January beat the forecast, coming in at 113.8 against an expected 111.8. The US Dollar index (DXY) was higher by +0.10%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields were slightly down while the 2y yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were both lower. Gold moved higher as investors bought it for a safe haven. Crude Oil Futures moved higher on potential supply issues from a possible Ukraine standoff. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.682. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range. The four largest mega-caps were down for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) closed below its 200d moving average for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Apple (AAPL) had an intraday rally for a gain, but then fell back to close with a -1.14% decline. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) produced inside days and declines of -3.15% and -2.96%. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the top mega-caps for today. Chevron advanced +4.25% while Exxon Mobil climbed +2.94%. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -5.65%. Nvidia (NVDA) was also near the bottom, dropping -5.29% today. Only three of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained. Penn National Gaming topped the list with a +1.86% climb. After two days of gains, Peloton (PTON) found itself at the bottom of the list again, declining -10.70%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The biggest news for tomorrow will be results of the Fed meeting and their Interest Rate decision. That news will come around 2pm. In the morning, we'll get the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories for December. After the market opens, we'll have New Homes Sales data for December. Later in the morning, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Tesla (TSLA), Abbot Labs (ABT), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), ServiceNow (NOW), ADP (ADP), and Progressive (PGR) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index opened lower, then nearly rallied to a gain before finally fading back to a loss. The one-day trend line points to a +2.02% advance for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends with a -2.45% decline. The trend line from the 1/12 high results in a -3.96% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's not much investors could do on Tuesday but wait for Wednesday. That resulted in lower volume and a soft rally attempt in the afternoon. The spinning top candle represents that indecisive sentiment. Earnings reports will significantly impact sentiment this week. Microsoft beat estimates and provide very positive guidance for 2022. That could help bring some support into the market, including the Nasdaq. Based on the candle and downtrend, the expectation for tomorrow remains Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/24Summary: Markets rebounded after a massive dip in the morning brought on by worries over the Fed interest rate decisions mid-week and what's happening between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 24, 2022 Facts: +0.63%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 48% Green Good: High closing range, gain on higher volume, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Big dip in the morning, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick underneath a 48% green body, tiny upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.28%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (+3.64%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.20%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.33%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets rebounded after a massive dip in the morning brought on by worries over the Fed interest rate decisions mid-week and what's happening between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.63% gain. That came after dip of -4.90% in the morning. The candle has a 48% green body above a long lower wick from the morning dip. The recovery and rally into close led to a 97% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. At its lowest point, the Nasdaq was down -19.23% from its all-time high. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed for the day. The small-cap index rose +2.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed +0.28% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.29%. All three indexes dipped severely in the morning. The VIX Volatility Index soared 35% intraday, but ended the day just +3.64% higher. The intraday top was the highest reading since November 2020. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.20%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) were the top sectors for the day. Health (XLV -0.33%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) were at the bottom. From the upside reversal around 12:00p, all sectors gained with Technology (XLY +0.52%) leading the list. The Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index came in lower than expected. However both prints were above 50 which signals expansion in their respective sectors. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining +0.24% The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver retreated while Gold advanced. Crude Oil, Timber, Copper and Aluminum all retreated. The put/call ratio remained at a relatively bearish level, declining to 0.950 today. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear area. All four largest mega-caps recovered from morning dips. Only Apple (AAPL) could not end the day with a gain, declining -0.49%. Microsoft dipped well below its 200d MA, but recovered to close above the line and gain +0.11%. Amazon (AMZN) rose +1.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) improved by +0.35%. Home Depot (HD) gained +4.21% today to top the mega-cap list. Adobe (ADBE) was the next best with a +3.95% advance. At the bottom of the list was Alibaba (BABA) and Pfizer (PFE) which lost -2.32% and -2.37%. The Daily Update Growth List had some big winners. Chewy (CHWY) topped the list with a +13.72% gain. Peloton (PTON) continued its rebound, advancing +9.79% today. Chinese stocks were at the bottom of the list, with Nio (NIO) having the most significant decline, losing -9.07%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence for January will be available after the market opens tomorrow. Microsoft (MSFT), Johnson&Johnson (JNJ), Verizon (VZ), Texas Instruments (TXN), Raytheon (RTX), American Express (AXP), General Electric (GE), Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM), and Logitech (LOGI) are among the earnings reports tomorrow. All eyes will be on Microsoft to set a tone for the mega-cap reports coming later this week and next. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped to almost 13,000 before catching some support and recovering to close higher. Still, the trend is downward with a lower low and lower high. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, expect a +1.11% advance. The trend line from the 1/12 high and the five-day trend line both represent the steep declines over the two time periods. After today's rally, if the index returns to those lines it would mean a decline of -3.29% to -4.55%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are not out of the woods yet, but today was a positive day. The candle itself has a long lower wick that can indicate a reversal when in a downtrend. The result is a move higher on higher than average volume (although a large portion of that volume came in the dip). The closing range of 97% shows the rally rode right into close. We also have more advancing stocks than declining stocks. To continue the momentum, look for another positive day tomorrow on increased volume. We also want to see the advance/decline line remain above 1.0 and a good closing range. The last thing we need to see and we didn't get today, is a higher high and a higher low. The expectation is for Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/21Summary: That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 21, 2022 Facts: -2.72%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Fourth failed rally attempt this week, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick with large red body. No lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.24, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.89%), DJI (-1.30%), RUT (-1.78%), VIX (+12.74%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. The Nasdaq declined -2.72% to end its worst week since the pandemic began and its fourth weekly decline in a row. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle looks just like the other four this week, with a long upper wick from a failed rally turning to a large red body and no lower wick. The closing range was just 1% under a 68% red body. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.89% to close below its 200d moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -1.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up -1.78%. The VIX Volatility Index continued to soar with a +12.74% rise on Friday. Only Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) advanced for the day. The other defensive sectors of Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) and Utilities (XLU -0.19%) were the next two in the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) were at the bottom. Retail Sales in the UK and Canada for December echoed the US result, missing targets and declining month-over-month. The US Dollar index (DXY) was fairly steady for the week, declining -0.14% on Friday. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Bonds all declined as investors moved to the safety of bonds vs the volatility in equities. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked Treasuries higher (Yields lower, Prices higher). Silver and Gold both moved lower for the day. Crude Oil Futures, Timber, Copper and Aluminum Futures all sank. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.15, the most bearish reading since March 2020. The CNN Fear & Greed index floated back into the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) continues to fall more than the others, declining -5.95% on Friday. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped -2.22%. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) faired a bit better, declining -1.28% and -1.85%. Only four mega-caps gained for the day. Abbot Laboratories (ABT) was the top gainer, gaining 0.90%. The biggest loser in the list was Walt Disney (DIS) which lost -6.94%, possibly weighted down by Netflix's disappointing subscriber growth. Alibaba (BABA) was also at the bottom of the list after topping it several days this week. It gave back the intraweek gains, declining -5.95% on Friday. In the Daily Update Growth List, only two stocks advanced. Peloton (PTON) gained +11.73%, bouncing back from a -24% decline the previous day. Beyond Meat (BYND) squeezed out a +0.29% advance. At the bottom of the list was Netflix, ending the day with a -21.79% decline. The company reported slower than expected subscriber growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The big news next week will be the Fed's rate increase decision on Wednesday. Also impacting the market will be earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, the largest of the big hitters reporting next week. Monday will bring the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index data for January, a forward-looking indicator on economic performance. Earnings reports on Monday include IBM (IBM) and Haliburton (HAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index is now -15% below its all-time high. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/12 high both point to a +0.49% advance for the index if it returns to the longer trends. The one-day trend line leads to a -1.39% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A painful week ends with investors at their most bearish level since the March 2020 crash. Some people call for further pain as a bubble of speculative investments over the past two years bursts. Others are saying this looks like the correction we needed and this could be the bottom. What do the charts and indicators tell us? The Nasdaq chart is dismal. It has no indication of stopping the decline. Every rally attempt this week failed and three of the four days showed distribution from institutional investors, marked by high volume declines. The percentage of stocks above their 200d and 50d moving averages are both at their lowest since the pandemic began. However, they have seen lower levels during the start of the pandemic and in late 2018 and early 2016. So these indicators could go lower. Treasury Bond yields rose sharply the previous week on speculation that the Fed would initiate interest rate hikes with a 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 25 basis points. That uncertainty and volatility in bonds just further tanked equities. One could look at the Fed's decision on Wednesday as a point of stabilization, especially if the Fed confirms the 25 basis point expectation. Investor sentiment often hits extremes around reversals. The put/call ratio rose to its highest (most bearish) point since March 2020, and the first time since 2020 that there were more puts than calls in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is not in Extreme Fear, however four out of seven of its subcomponents are there. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is below 60, where it typically bottoms and moves higher as money managers buy the dip. History tells us that equities typically decline leading up to rate hikes and then rise after rate hikes. However, we are in unprecedented times after historic low interest rates and massive QE causing the highest level of inflation since the 1980s. That potentially requires a very hawkish fed to bring it under control. So is there more uncertainty ahead? The bottom line is we're still not out of the woods. Rather than trying to guess, or listen to click-bait media, wait for the market to confirm the bottom. A few days of higher volume advances with broad support across the market will tell us that institutions are back in the game. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/20Summary: A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 20, 2022 Facts: -1.30%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 62% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Another failed rally, closing range of 3%, volume higher on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.36, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.10%), DJI (-0.89%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+7.30%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.13%) and Financials (XLF -0.64%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.30% loss. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking another distribution day. The failed morning rally created a long upper wick that sits over a 62% red body. There is a tiny lower wick, leaving the candle with a 3% closing range. Nearly three stocks declined for every stock that advanced. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continued to sell-off more than the other indexes, declining -1.88% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.89%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +7.30%. Only the Utilities (XLU +0.13%) sector ended the day with a gain. Financials (-0.64%) was the second best sector for the day, helped by some positive earnings reports from banks in the morning. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecast, coming in at 286,000 compared to the forecast of 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January printed 23.2 compared to the expectation of 20.0. That was welcome news after the NY Manufacturing Index showed worsening conditions with a negative print. Existing Home Sales for December was under the forecast by 4%. Crude Oil Inventories was higher than expected, marking some fall back in demand. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.16%. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to slide while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices seemed to bottom. Silver continued to rise sharply while Gold declined. Aluminum Futures are reaching back toward record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.816. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to Neutral, from the Greed area yesterday. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four mega-caps declined today. Amazon (AMZN) continued to tumble, with a -2.96% decline. The stock is nearly 20% off its all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed just above its 200d moving average, losing -1.34% today. Apple (AAPL) made an attempt to get back above its 50d moving average, but ended the day with a -1.03% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.57%. Top performing stocks for the day in both the mega-cap and growth list were Chinese companies. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the top of the mega-cap list with a +2.58% advance. At the bottom of the list was Nvidia (NVDA), declining -3.66% today as the entire semiconductor segment continues to lose ground. The top five stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were all Chinese, with Ehang Holdings (EH)leading the charge and gaining +11.40%. At the bottom of the growth list was Peloton (PTON). The company dropped -23.93% after news hit that they would be halting production of bikes and treadmills. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for the UK and Canada will come overnight. Otherwise, there is not much economic news in the calendar for Friday. Schlumberger (SLB) and Huntington Bacnshares (HBAN) report earnings in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to tumble as it doesn’t seem to be catching any support areas. The index is -12.70% below its all-time high. If the index can return to the trend line from the 12/28 high, it would require a +1.37% advance on Friday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.35% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -1.86% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Pain, pain, pain. It's tough to watch the failed rally attempts turn into significant losses day after day this week. The strengthening dollar today and rising Treasury prices both point to money coming back into the US market. If that can continue, we should see some support in US equity markets as investors look for greater returns. Based on the chart, the index is not giving us any indication of a reversal, so the expectation for tomorrow remains Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/19Summary: Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 19, 2022 Facts: -1.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 74% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Lost the 14,500 support area, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, long upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.51, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.97%), DJI (-0.96%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (+4.65%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.15% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. A long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that failed. The rest of the candle is 74% red body, leaving behind practically no lower wick and a 3% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the losses for another day, dropping -1.60%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.97% and -0.96%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.65%. Only two sectors in the S&P 500 finished the day with gains, both defensive sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) were at the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) were at the bottom. Building Permits and Housing Starts data exceeded expectations for December. There were 1.87m Building Permits compared to the forecast of 1.70m. And there were 1.70m Housing Starts compared to a forecast of 1.65m. Consumer Price Index data from the UK and Canada were both higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) dropped by -0.11%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields receded a bit while the 2y Treasury Yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to fall while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold both rose sharply for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.717 as some investors may be seeing a bounce from here. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Greed, from a Neutral level yesterday. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) advanced for the day although it gave back much of its intraday gains. The stock ended the day with a +0.22% advance. Apple (AAPL) joined the other three in closing below its 50d moving average, dropping -2.10% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.65% while Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.65%. Proctor & Gamble (PG) was the top mega-cap, rising +3.36% on a solid earnings report released in the premarket. The company stated that prices will continue to rise. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -3.38% today. Nvidia (NVDA) also declined more than -3%. Peloton (PTON) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. The stock climbed +5.33% after the company announced it would be cutting staff and other fixed costs, improving the profitability in the company despite slower growth. Digital Turbine (APPS) was at the bottom of the list, losing -6.08%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. We will also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index. The NY index showed worsening conditions for January. After the market opens, Existing Home Sales data will be available. Crude Oil Inventories will come later in the morning. Overnight, inflation data for Europe will be made available. Tomorrow's earnings reports include Netflix (NFLX), CSX (CSX), Travelers (TRV), Fifth Third (FITB), KeyCorp (KEY), and American Airlines (AAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to lose support areas as it moved well into correction territory, down -11.55% from the all-time high. If the index moves back to the 12/29 trend line, that would mean a +0.68% advanced tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.78% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The pain continues. However, Treasury Yields showed some leveling off today. With some surprise economic data or better earnings reports, we could see a bounce over the next day or two. That won't give us much indication of whether the bounce would hold into next week. Confidence will only come when we see a rotation back into growth sectors that’s broadly shared across the Nasdaq (high advance/decline ratio) and a an advance on higher volume. Based on the chart and today's intraday moves, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/18Summary: Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 18, 2022 Facts: -2.60%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 9%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Move below 200d moving average on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body with longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.84%), DJI (-1.51%), RUT (-3.06%), VIX (+18.76%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.40%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. The Nasdaq (IXIC) dropped -2.60% today. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking a significant distribution day for the index. The closing range of 9% comes below a red body that covers 68% of the candle. The longer upper wick was formed in the morning as the index attempted to move back above the 200d moving average but hit resistance. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps had the most significant decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -3.06%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.84% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.51%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up +18.76%. Of the S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.40%) gained for the day. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) were at the bottom of the list. Financials was pulled down by disappointing earnings reports from Goldman Sachs. The Technology sector tends to be most sensitive to rising Treasury yields. To further dampen market sentiment, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in less than zero at -0.70 compared to the forecast of 25.70. The negative number indicates worsening conditions. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50% today. The dollar strengthened that last three days. The US 10y and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply, reaching their highest levels since the beginning of 2020. The US 30y Treasury Yield also rose. The gap between long and short term yields continues to tighten. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also dropped sharply, tracking with Treasury prices (Yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures are nearing a new high. Silver rose despite the strengthening dollar. Gold declined. Timber (WOOD) prices fell sharply after hitting its highest point since May. The put/call ratio declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index is hovering around Neutral. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) is the only of the four remaining above its 50d moving average line, declining -1.89% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -2.43% and -2.50% as they both approach the 200d moving average. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the best-performing mega-cap for the day, climbing +1.68%. The only other mega-cap to gain more than 1% was Eli Lilly (LLY) closing the day with a +1.21% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with -4.86% and -5.21% declines. Chinese fintech companies topped the Daily Update Growth List. FUTU Holding (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +3.85% and +2.97%. The largest losses in the list came from Cloudflare (NET), declining -6.64%, and Lemonade (LMND), falling -6.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data for December will be available in the morning before the market opens. We'll also get inflation data for the UK and Canada overnight. UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and United Airlines (UAL) are among the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 14,500 resistance/support area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/28 high, that would mean a +0.27% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -0.22% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect a -1.10% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I mentioned on Friday that we'll continue to feel pain until the Bond market stabilizes. With yields spiking today, that meant more price declines for the major indexes and nearly all sectors. Maybe we'll see a bounce in the right direction tomorrow, but much of that depends on Treasury yields. Based on the chart, the expectation is for Lower on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/14Summary: Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 14, 2022 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 89% Green Good: Support at 200d MA, gain on higher volume, high closing range Bad: Lower high and low, lower weekly close Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny wicks Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-5.51%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.59% gain. The candle is mostly green body, and the closing range of 98% comes on higher volume than the previous day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the only index to decline, losing -0.56% today, weighed down by large financial institutions and industrial sector stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.14%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -5.51%. Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) were the top sectors for the day. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) we at the bottom of the sector list. Retail Sales in December declined more than expected month-over-month, dropping -1.9% compared to a forecast of -0.1%. Industrial Production was also lower than expected. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for January is also lower than expected, likely impacted by the surge in Omicron cases across the US. The US dollar strengthened after weakening significantly earlier in the week. The dollar index (DXY) rose +0.32% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined, tracking with treasury prices (yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures continues to track higher, nearing the high levels in October. The put/call ratio rose to 0.875. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at Neutral but moved toward the Greed side. All four largest mega-caps gained. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant gain after declining the most among the four yesterday. It gained +1.77% today. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.51% after hitting resistance at its 21d EMA. All four charts are not looking great, with Amazon (AMZN) struggling the most, 14% below its all-time and 52-week high. Wells Fargo (WFC) topped the mega-cap chart, defying the rest of the Financial sector with an earnings beat and profits growing 86%. On the other end of the mega-cap list is JP Morgan Chase (JPM), which fell -6.15% after missing street revenue estimates. The Daily Update Growth List had a good number of winners today, but most stocks in the list declined. At the top of the list is Futu Holdings (FUTU), with a +3.31% gain. That was followed by another Chinese stock, JD.com (JD), which gained +3.19%. Beyond Meat (BYND) was at the bottom of the list, giving back some of its recent gains with a -6.0% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr Holiday. Tuesday will open with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will come after the market closes. Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Goldman Sachs (GS), PNC Financial (PNC) are some of the big financial company earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support around the 200d moving average today before closing higher. The index remains below the 15,000 support/resistance area. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, expect a +0.72% gain on Tuesday. The one-day trend line would result in a -0.27% gain. Returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high would result in a -1.57% decline to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy week. Monday and Tuesday looked good as the Nasdaq seemed to catch a bottom intraday on Monday and end the day with a gain on higher volume. Tuesday continued that momentum, but then sentiment turned on Wednesday as more rate increases in 2022 seemed likely from Fed officials' public statements. That resulted in a crushing loss on Thursday and a loss for the week despite some support on Friday. Only two sectors closed the week with gains. Energy rose +5% this week after gaining +10% last week. Communications somehow pulled out a +0.16% for the week. Real Estate was the worst-performing sector for the week as investors anticipate higher interest rates to impact profitability in the sector. The percentage of stocks above their 50d moving averages is still in the low 40% range. That's better than December when it was near 20% for the 50d, but we'd like to see the number near 60%. We need to see some stabilization in the US dollar and the bond market that signals investors are more confident about the Fed's playbook for 2022 (the speed of tapering, the number of interest rate hikes, and the run-off of balance sheet assets). Once that happens, volatility should finally recede a bit in equity markets. Until then, we'll continue to feel some pain and possibly a little more correction. We've only seen a -10% drop from the top for the Nasdaq. The expectation for Tuesday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/13Summary: Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 13, 2022 Facts: -2.51%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 92% Red Good: Close above 200d MA, volume lower on decline Bad: Thick red body, selling all-day, failed support at 15,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.48, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.42%), DJI (-0.49%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (+15.27%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Industrials (XLI +0.22%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. The Nasdaq closed with a -2.51% decline, returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range was only 5%, coming underneath a 92% red body. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -1.42% lower, led by growth sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.49%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.76%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +15.27%. Only three sectors ended the day with gains, led by the defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +0.49%). Industrials (XLI +0.22%) was the next best sector, followed by Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) had the most significant losses. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in lower than expected, growing only 2% month-over-month compared to the analyst forecast of 0.4%. That could indicate inflation is topping out as the producer price index is a forward-looking view on consumer price increases. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims was 230,000, higher than the expected 200,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) continued lower, declining -0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Timber (WOOD) continues to climb higher while other commodities pulled back from recent gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.781. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index decreased to 74.78. All four largest mega-caps decline. Apple (AAPL) moved back below its 21d EMA with a -1.90% decline. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant loss of the four, dropping -4.23% today. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.42%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -2.01%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) topped the mega-cap list, gaining +5.26% after an exceptional earnings report before the market opened. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -6.75% decline. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the list with a +4.75% gain, defying gravity today thanks to high short interest and a continued bullish sentiment from the Kentucky Fried Chicken deal. CloudFlare (NET) took the brunt of the profit-taking, declining -13.15% to give back all the gains this week and close at its lowest level year-to-date. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for December will be available in the morning. We'll also get numbers for Industrial Production for December. The Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment Data for January will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance If the index can return to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +2.52% advance tomorrow. The trend line from the 12/28 high points to a -0.44% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -2.37% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's painful to watch, but the market is still figuring out how often and how quickly the Fed will increase rates this year to control inflation. As investors and analysts hang on every word of Fed officials' public statements, they re-evaluate the impact on the bond and equity markets. We can expect more volatility as the month progresses. Based on the broken support today and a new intra-week low, the expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321