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Daily Market Update for 10/20Summary: Positive earnings reports continue to move markets higher while big tech stocks took a breather for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 20, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 47%, Body: 36% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, pause within a uptrend Bad: Lower close, otherwise nothing alarming Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thin body in upper half of red candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.99, about equal advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.37%), DJI (+0.43%), RUT (+0.61%), VIX (-1.34%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.58%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.53%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.07%) and Technology (XLK -0.28%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive earnings reports continue to move markets higher while big tech stocks took a breather for the day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined -0.05%, a lateral move after several days of gains. Volume was lower than the previous day as the uptrend in the index remained intact with a higher high and a higher low. The 36% red body is in the upper half of the candle above a longer lower wick and a 47% closing range. There was about an equal number of advancing stocks and declining stocks. Small-caps led the day with a +0.61% gain for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.37%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.43%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -1.34% today. Utilities (XLU +1.58%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.53%) were at the top of the sector list. The defensive sectors still have some catchup to do after lagging in the recent rally. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.07%) and Technology (XLK -0.28%) were the only losing sectors. The action among big tech companies seemed profit-taking rather than concern from investors. Crude Oil Inventories surprised with higher demand than expected. Inventories showed a -0.431 million barrel shortage vs. an expected 1.857 million barrel surplus. This afternoon, the Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles said that economic tests were met, and tapering could begin next month. He also said that inflation should recede into next year, and pulling forward interest rate hikes was unnecessary. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by -0.20%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose, likely on Quarles confirmation that bond purchase tapering would begin soon. The 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices moved higher while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices dropped. Silver and Gold rose on the weaker dollar. Aluminum Futures are falling back from recent record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose slightly to 0.550. The CNN Fear & Greed Index continues to move further into the Greed range. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) gained for the day. However, the charts for all four still look good after some profit-taking today. Abbott Labs (ABT) and UnitedHealth (UNH) were the top mega-caps of the day, leading the Health Sector (XLV) higher. Abbott Labs released earnings, beating expectations on the top and bottom line and improving guidance for 2021. PayPal (PYPL) declined -4.91% after rumors stated the company is in talks to acquire Pinterest (PINS). Pinterest (PINS) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a 12.77% gain on the PayPal acquisition rumors. Penn National Gaming (PENN) joined PayPal at the bottom of the growth list. More than half of the growth list declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be available in the morning before the market opens. After the market opens, Existing Home Sales data will be released. PayPal (PYPL), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), SAP (SAP), Snap (SNAP), Southwest Airlines (LUV), KeyCorp (KEY), American Airlines (AAL), Snap-on (SNA), Crocs (CROX), AutoNation (AN), Alaska Air (ALK), and Mattel (MAT) are some of the interesting earnings reports in a long list scheduled for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq paused after several days of gains, staying well above the 15,000 support area. The five-day trend line points to a +1.06% gain for tomorrow. The line from the 10/4 low points to a +0.24% gain for Thursday. The one-day trend line would result in a -0.42% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq paused after several days of gains while the rest of the market took a step higher to catch up. Small-caps and defensive stocks, in particular, were lagging. There is some room for the index to retest the 15,000 area. However, the uptrend is intact, and so I'm expecting either a Sideways or Higher move without some catalyst to cause a pullback. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/19Summary: Investors remained bullish on Tuesday as earnings reports start to pick up, and analysts expect positive results. Indexes ticked higher while several sectors traded at record levels. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 19, 2021 Facts: +0.71%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 92% (w/gap), Body: 64% Green Good: Gap up to steady gains in morning, high closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, mostly green body, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.19, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.56%), RUT (+0.36%), VIX (-3.74%) Sector List: Health (XLV +1.31%) and Utilities (XLU +1.26%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.04%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.28%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors remained bullish on Tuesday as earnings reports start to pick up, and analysts expect positive results. Indexes ticked higher while several sectors traded at record levels. The Nasdaq advanced another +0.71% today, the fifth consecutive day of gains. The index opened with a gap up and made steady gains through the morning. A dip in the afternoon created a small upper wick, but the index closed with a 92% closing range with the gap. The higher volume with more advancing stocks than declining stocks makes for a constructive day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.74%, with gains spread across most sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.56%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose +0.36%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) closed at its lowest point since August, declining -3.74% today. Health (XLV +1.31%) and Utilities (XLU +1.26%) were at the top of the sector list. The two defensive sectors outperformed, which could be a signal of some caution. However, it could just be some rotation into cheaper equities that need to catch up with the rest of the market. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.28%) was the only sector to decline for the day, but that came after an all-time high set at the open. Building Permits and Housing Starts data released in the morning was below the forecast, but the market did not seem concerned with the miss. Fed officials speaking in the afternoon indicated inflation could last longer than previously thought and that the labor market may not return to pre-pandemic levels. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.17% today. 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bonds rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bonds declined. Crude Oil Futures advanced higher, continuing to set new records. Copper and Aluminum futures fell today but remain near highs. The put/call ratio declined to 0.538. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved well into the Greed area. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap, advancing +6.10% after announcing new cloud server chips today. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) missed expectations on revenue in its morning earnings release but improved the outlook for the year, sending the stock up 2.34%. Procter & Gamble (PG) beat earnings estimates but said rising costs were impacting the business, sending it to the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -1.18% decline. There were only a handful of mega-caps that declined for today. Fastly (FSLY) gained +10.72%, topping the Daily Update Growth List. The gain came after the US granted a patent to the company for load balancing across origin services. CloudFlare (NET) broke a 12-day winning streak with a decline today, ending with a -4.36%, the worst performance in the growth list. The decline may be related to Fastly's gain as both are CDN providers, and the patent could impact Cloudflare. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories will be available in the morning. Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), IBM (IBM) are a few of the mega-caps reporting earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose further above the 15,000 support area and cleared a previous pivot high at 15,085. The next critical level is 15,200. The five-day trend line points to a +1.19% gain for Wednesday. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.40% gain. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, that will result in a -0.39% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Fed's comments on drawn-out inflation could have had much more of a negative impact today. They also mentioned that the labor market might not return to pre-pandemic levels. So why didn't the market react more negatively? Despite these headwinds and low consumer sentiment, retail sales still soared last month. Analysts likely see more resilience in the economy than previously thought. Corporations have had to innovate against the pandemic for the past year. In the face of labor shortages, that innovation needs to continue. Productivity in the labor force is rising, a clear sign of that innovation. Ultimately, innovation will be deflationary. So perhaps we are even seeing the market look past inflation, look past stagflation, and start to see the opportunity for tech and growth stocks. The expectation for tomorrow is for Sideways or Higher. The index may need to pause after several days of gains, but we shouldn't see a move lower unless something changes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/18Summary: Weak GDP data from China wasn't enough to break optimism for investors after last week's surprise Retail Sales data. Indexes started lower but recovered with steady gains throughout the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 18, 2021 Facts: +0.84%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 94% Green Good: Bullish engulfing candle in an uptrend, close above 15,000 support Bad: Lower volume, low advance/decline line Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bullish engulfing candle, very small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (-0.10%), RUT (+0.10%), VIX (+0.18%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.22%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Weak GDP data from China wasn't enough to break optimism for investors after last week's surprise Retail Sales data. Indexes started lower but recovered with steady gains throughout the day. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.84% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is all green body, completely engulfing the previous day's candle and presenting very small upper and lower wicks as the index made steady gains throughout the day. Still, there were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.34%, carried higher by big tech stocks in the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained only +0.10%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended the day with a -0.10% decline. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.22%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) were the top sectors for the day. Defensive sectors, including Health (XLV -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%), were at the bottom of the sector list. GDP growth in China was lower than expected, causing the indexes to open with losses. Industrial Production growth for the US was also lower than expected, but investors were more focused on Friday's surprise Retail Sales data. The US Dollar remained flat for the day, losing only -0.01% in the index (DXY). The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields advanced. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Crude Oil, Copper, and Aluminum futures remained at record highs while the Timber declined for the day. The put/call ratio declined to 0.558. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the Greed side but remained near Neutral. Apple (AAPL) led the four largest mega-caps with gains for the day. The company announced new notebook products, advancing +1.18% for the day, stopping just short of the 50d MA line. The other three are trading above their key moving average lines. Facebook (FB) was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Tesla (TSLA). Facebook rose after revealing plans to build out the Metaverse, hiring over 10,000 works in Europe. Tesla rose on analyst predictions that they would beat revenue projections in Q3. They both gained over +3% today. Walt Disney (DIS) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, losing more than -3% after a downgrade from Barclays. Cloudflare (NET) rose another +7.80% today, topping the Daily Update Growth List again. The company announced a partnership with Microsoft to improve website search results. The stock is on its 12th straight positive session and has gained more than 60% in October. Upwork (UPWK) was at the bottom of the growth list, declining -3.14% today, pulling back from the recent rally. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will kick-off with Building Permits, and Housing Starts data for September. Three Fed officials (Daly, Bowman, and Bostic) are scheduled to speak tomorrow. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market close. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Netflix (NFLX), Philip Morris (PM), Fifth Third (FITB), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) will release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 15,000 support/resistance area today. The next critical level is at 15,085, the previous peak in late September before the index dropped lower. The one-day and five-day trend lines point at a +1.02% gain for Tuesday. The trend line from the 10/4 low ends with a -0.47% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems today's bullishness among investors is a carry-over from last week's surprise Retail Sales data. The data showed that inflation was not keeping consumers away from spending and pushed off stagflation fears, at least for now. Despite slower job growth, consumers have plenty of money to spend after record savings during the pandemic. After four days of gains, it certainly would be OK for the index to move sideways for tomorrow, but I believe support will hold at 15,00. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/15Summary: Retail Sales jumped 0.7% in September compared to analysts' expectation for a decline. That gave a massive boost to Consumer Discretionary stocks while the Financial sector topped a week of positive earnings reports with a huge beat from Goldman Sachs. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 15, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 90% (w/gap), Body: 11% Green Good: Move above 50d MA on higher volume, high closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, long lower wick didn't fill gap, thin body Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.75%), DJI (+1.09%), RUT (-0.37%), VIX (-3.32%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) and Financials (XLF +1.49%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.24%) and Utilities (XLU -0.29%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Retail Sales jumped 0.7% in September compared to analysts' expectation for a decline. That gave a massive boost to Consumer Discretionary stocks while the Financial sector topped a week of positive earnings reports with a huge beat from Goldman Sachs. The Nasdaq climbed above its 50d moving average with a +0.50% advance today on higher volume. The candle has a thin green body, covering just 11% in the upper half of the stick. The long lower wick wasn't enough to fill a gap at open. Despite the gain on higher volume, there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock as small-caps struggled today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) started the day with a +1.41% gain but lost support and ended with a -0.37% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.75% and +1.09%. The VIX Volatility Index receded -3.32% as investors relaxed from stagflation fears. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) and Financials (XLF +1.49%) were at the top. Consumer Discretionary got a boost from retail sales, while Financials gained on an excellent earnings week. Both sector ETFs set new all-time highs. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.24%) and Utilities (XLU -0.29%) were at the bottom of the list as investors moved to higher-risk equities in growth and cyclical sectors. Retail Sales grew 0.7% in September compared to the forecast for a -0.2% decline. However, the impact of higher prices at the cash register has weighed on the consumer. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment data came in lower than expected, and both remain near low levels set back in August. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index also came in lower than expected, registering 19.8 compared to a forecast of 27.0. The US Dollar declined slightly (DXY -0.03%) while US Treasury yields moved higher. The yield curve continues to flatten as the gap between long-term and short-term yields tightens. High Yield (HYG) And Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bonds declined after two days of sharp increases. Gold retreated -1.62%. Copper is nearing a record high while Aluminum continues to set new records. The put/call ratio rose to 0.684. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to Neutral after hitting Extreme Fear several times in October. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 64.46 from 68.6 the previous week. Amazon (AMZN) gained +3.31% on the retail sales data today, leading the four largest mega-caps higher and shooting past both the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. All four largest mega-caps ended the day with gains. Only Apple (AAPL) remains below its 50d MA. Mastercard (MA) was the top mega-cap for the day, matching Amazon's +3.31% and benefiting from expected higher transaction fees that go along with a rise in retail sales. Tesla (TSLA) also topped +3.02%, making a list of China's top 15 EV manufacturers by deliveries. There were not many decliners in the mega-cap list, but Facebook found itself at the bottom with a -1.15% decline as the Communications sector also declined today. It was mixed results for the Daily Update Growth List. NIO (NIO) topped the list with a +3.94% gain. NIO did not make the list of the top 15 EV manufacturers in China but announced doubling its manufacturing capacity. FUTU Holdings and UP Fintech continued to sell-off on regulatory fears, with FUTU at the bottom of the growth list, declining -13.66% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Industrial Production data will be available Monday morning, and an update to the Federal Budget Balance will come in the afternoon. Although next week will be another busy earnings week, none are significant for the Daily Update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above the 50d MA today and is approaching the 15,000 support/resistance area. The one-day and five-day trend lines show a similar result, approximately a +0.28% gain for Monday. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, expect a -0.32% decline which would be a move below the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Friday marked the end of a constructive week for the market. Investors set aside fears of stagflation and looked at improving retail activity as an indicator consumers are getting back out and spending despite higher prices at the cash register. Key sectors are leading indexes higher. While the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones heads back toward new highs, the small-caps in the Russell 2000 continue to chop up and down. That may change once the Fed begins tapering bond purchases, sending the USD higher, and weighing on valuations for large multinational corporations. Communications was the only sector to decline for the week. Facebook continues to face scrutiny over social media policies which could turn into regulation for the sector. With the increasing volume as the index moves higher, it's reasonable to expect more gains for next week. Resistance levels will come at 15,000, 15,085, and 15,200 before the index can attempt a new high. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/14Summary: Even today's worst-performing sector gained over one percent, marking a very bullish day with gains broad across the market. The Nasdaq had a 1.4 advance/decline ratio, while the New York Stock Exchange recorded a ratio of 3.6 advancers to decliners. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 14, 2021 Facts: +1.73%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98% (w/gap), Body: 83% Green Good: Very bullish day with very few declines, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Gap may need to be revisited Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body Advance/Decline: 1.38, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.71%), DJI (+1.56%), RUT (+1.44%), VIX (-9.55%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +2.43%) and Technology (XLK +2.25%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.13%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Even today's worst-performing sector gained over one percent, marking a very bullish day with gains broad across the market. The Nasdaq had a 1.4 advance/decline ratio, while the New York Stock Exchange recorded a ratio of 3.6 advancers to decliners. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +1.73% after gapping up in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day, and the candle is mostly green body with a 98% closing range, including the gap. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the next best-performing index with a +1.71% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.56%, and the Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced by +1.44%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) fell back to its lowest level since mid-September with a -9.55% decline today. All S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Materials (XLB +2.43%) and Technology (XLK +2.25%) are at the top of the list. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.13%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.05%) were at the bottom, both still gaining over one percent. Producer Price Index data came in lower than expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was at 0.2% month-over-month compared to 0.5%. Total PPI came in at 0.5% against the 0.6% expectation. While a miss in PPI is typically bearish for the US Dollar, it’s a welcome sight in this year's market since it is a leading indicator of inflation. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 293,000 against a forecast of 319,000, showing strength in the labor market recovery. Crude Oil Inventories were much higher than expected at 6.1 million barrels compared to a forecast of 0.7 million barrels. The US Dollar declined only -0.02% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields fell while the 2y yield advanced. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both sharply increased. Silver and Gold both advanced. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all advanced. The put/call ratio declined to 0.590. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the Fear range but moving closer to Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 64.46 from 68.6 the previous week. Things are looking much better for the four largest mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) ad over 2% advances to close higher than the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) also advanced today but have some work before clearing the moving averages. ASML Holding (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), and United Health (UNH) all soared over 4% to top the mega-cap list. Both Bank of America and United Health beat earnings expectations before the market opened. Overall earnings releases for big banks have been very positive this week. There were only four decliners in the list, with Oracle (ORCL) losing -1.16% to end up at the bottom. GrowGeneration (GRWG) bounced back from yesterday's loss to climb +5.21% today and top the daily update growth list. UP Fintech (TIGER) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were at the bottom of the list, declining -21.19% and -12.41%. Investors turned very bearish on the two companies after new privacy laws in China could restrict investors from using the platforms for international investments. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data is due on Friday morning before the market opens. In addition, Export/Import price indexes, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Expectations data will all be available in the morning. Tomorrow's premarket earnings reports include Goldman Sachs (GS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq soared above its 21d EMA today but closed below the 50d MA. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that will mean a +0.61% advance. After today's huge gain, a return to the five-day trend line and the trend line from the 10/4 low points to a -0.67% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Relief on inflation and a strong labor report was just what investors needed to put off stagflation fears and get back into equity positions. It also helped that earnings reports from the financial sector have mainly been positive this week. Based on today's bullish action, the expectation for tomorrow is higher. There is the chance for a decline to fill today's gap, which may happen if any surprises come in the morning economic data. But I'd still expect today's bullish outlook to overcome any dip. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/13Summary: Investors moved past inflation data to mark a day of gains in the market, but caution was present with defensive sectors outperforming. There were no surprises in the Fed's meeting minutes that confirmed a start to bond purchase tapering in November. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 13, 2021 Facts: +0.73%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 85%, Body: 29% Green Good: Green body almost entire above previous candle body, long lower wick Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under a short Green body Advance/Decline: 1.01, one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.30%), DJI (-0.00%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-6.10%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.17%) and Materials (XLB +0.75%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.09%) and Financials (XLF -0.57%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors moved past inflation data to mark a day of gains in the market, but caution was present with defensive sectors outperforming. There were no surprises in the Fed's meeting minutes that confirmed a start to bond purchase tapering in November. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.73% gain. Volume was slightly lower than the previous day. The 29% green body sits in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed in the first hour of trading. The index rebounded from the morning decline to end the day with an 85% closing range. There was an equal number of advancing and declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.34%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.30%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) remained flat for the day but regained losses from the morning. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -6.10%. Utilities (XLU +1.17%) led the sector list, signaling caution among investors. Materials (XLB +0.75%) was in the second spot at the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF -0.57%) was the worst sector for the day despite several positive earnings reports in the morning. Although JP Morgan (JPM) beat predictions on revenues and earnings, they missed Net Interest Margin, a key indicator of business performance in big banks. Core CPI came in at 4.0% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month as expected by analysts. However, the total CPI, which includes food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month compared to an expectation of 0.3%. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected, signaling less demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -0.54%. The yield gap tightened more with 30y and 10y Treasury Yields dropping while the 2y Treasury yield rose. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices moved higher. Silver and Gold both rose sharply. Timber and Copper also had significant gains for the day while Aluminum pulled back from record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.669. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to decline for the day after news broke yesterday of iPhone 13 orders being reduced due to the chip shortage. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.17%, moving above its 21d exponential and 50d moving average line. Novo Nordisk (NVO) was the top mega-cap for the day. Nobo, Alibaba (BABA), and ASML Holding (ASML) all had gains of over 2.5%. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was JP Morgan Chase (JPM), declining -2.64%. Sea Limited (SE), DataDog (DDOG), and Crowdstrike (CRWD) topped the Daily Update Growth List, each gaining over 7% today. GrowGeneration (GRWG) declined -11.92% after canceling an acquisition, putting the stock at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow's economic calendar includes the Producer Price Index data and Initial Jobless Claims. Crude Oil Inventories comes later in the morning. In the afternoon, the Federal Budget Balance will be available. Important earnings reports for tomorrow include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), United Health (UNG), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Citigroup (C ), US Bancorp (USB), Walgreens Boots (WBA), and Domino's Pizza (DPZ). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back above the 14,500 support area but remained below its 50 moving average and 21d exponential moving average lines. The continuation of the one-day trend line would result in a +0.34% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -1.05% decline. If the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 high, that will result in a -1.73% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors seemed to grow a bit more comfortable with inflation numbers today. Although there is plenty of caution in the market, there were no severe reactions to today's higher-than-expected price data. The worry remains that inflation is not transitory as the Fed has stated in the past and that the stalling labor market will lead to a case of stagflation. On the chart, there was good support above yesterday's close, and the green body is almost entirely above the red body of yesterday. Overall, a bullish day for the index. Tomorrow, we'll look for more volume with continued breadth (high advance/decline ratio). The expectation is for sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/12Summary: Soaring oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and bond tapering have investors buying up the US dollar while causing downward pressure on mega-caps stocks. Small caps led on Tuesday while big technology stocks declined. Notes I missed yesterday's update. First time in over a year to miss one, but I had a great two-day vacation with my kids. :) Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 12, 2021 Facts: -0.14%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 22%, Body: 66% Red Good: Advance/decline ratio Bad: Decline on higher volume, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.09, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.24%), DJI (-0.34%), RUT (+0.05%), VIX (-0.75%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.79%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.52%) and Communications (XLC -0.93%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Soaring oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and bond tapering have investors buying up the US dollar while causing downward pressure on mega-caps stocks. Small caps led on Tuesday while big technology stocks declined. The Nasdaq declined -0.14% after several intraday rallies above 14,500 failed to get support. Volume was higher than the previous day. The red body covers 66% of the candle, which has a closing range of 22%. Despite the decline, there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The decrease in the index came primarily from large mega-caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.05%, with small-caps having better relative performance in the context of a stronger USD. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.24%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -0.75%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.79%) were at the top of the sector list. The Real Estate sector is a place investors can protect against inflation. Consumer Discretionary got a boost from Tesla, which rose with other renewable energy stocks on fears of an oil crisis. Technology (XLK -0.52%) and Communications (XLC -0.93%) were at the bottom of the sector list, brought down by big tech stocks. JOLTs Job Openings were at 10.4 million, lower than the forecast of 10.9 million. Fed members reiterated that the central bank is on track to start bond tapering next month. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining +0.16% on higher demand. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields all declined for the day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices bounced up after several days of sharp declines. Crude Oil Futures declined a bit but are still near all-time highs. Aluminum Futures are also near all-time highs after a massive gain on Monday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.581. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the middle of the Fear range. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) held onto a gain for the day, advancing +0.03%. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.91% after Bloomberg reported the company would slash iPhone 13 production due to the chip crunch. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -1.77%, taking the Communications sector lower. There are more declining stocks than advancing stocks in the mega-cap list. The top-performing mega-cap for the day was Nike (NKE). At the bottom of the mega-cap list is Intel (INTC). The daily update growth list has more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Renewable energy stocks topped the list, with Solar Edge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) advancing +7.80% and +5.32%. Etsy (ETSY) also exceeded a 5% gain, rising +5.34%. Robinhood (HOOD), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU) were at the bottom of the growth list, all declining more than -3%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead A look at inflation comes in two forms on Wednesday. First, the OPEC monthly report will show how oil producers respond to shortages as demand spikes and supply chains choke. Second, Consumer Price Index data will be available before the market opens. Later in the day, investors will closely look at the Fed's minutes from their most recent meeting, looking for more clues on a tightening of monetary policy. Tomorrow's market will also open with the first significant earnings reports for this quarter. JP Morgan (JPM), BlackRock (BLK), Wipro (WIT), Delta Air Lines (DAL) all report earnings before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq attempted to rise above the 14,500 area three times today but did not get support and closed below the line. If the index rejoins the five-day trend line, that will mean a +0.75% gain for Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a lateral move of a +0.03% gain. The trend line from the 9/7 high ends with a -0.94% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears around the impact of inflation amongst higher oil prices and tighter monetary policy, while employment growth is slowing, are now turning investors' worries toward stagflation. As employment growth stalls, wages remain stagnant or decline while the prices of goods rise. After the JOLTs job openings report today showed fewer than expected jobs, the inflation numbers become even more critical tomorrow. The expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/8Summary: Markets moved lower after payrolls data missed expectations. Energy stocks led the day following Crude Oil Futures higher, while Financial stocks did well on rising interest rates. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 8, 2021 Facts: -0.51%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 8%, Body: 88% Red Good: Decline on lower volume, stayed above 14,500 support area Bad: Lower high, lower low, selling most of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, with tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.49, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.19%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (-3.94%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +0.49%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.74%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.09%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets moved lower after payrolls data missed expectations. Energy stocks led the day following Crude Oil Futures higher, while Financial stocks did well on rising interest rates. The Nasdaq lost -0.51% for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is almost entirely red body, with tiny upper and lower wicks. The 88% Red body is above an awful 8% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.03% for the day while leading the major indexes in gains for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.19%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only index to decline for the week, losing -0.76% today. Despite selling across the market, the VIX Volatility Index declined -3.94%, continuing to fall from its elevated level earlier in the week. Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +0.49%) were the only gaining sectors today and performed the best for the week. Energy is rising on higher oil prices while Financials is getting the benefit of higher interest rates. Next week kicks of earnings season for the big banks. Utilities (XLU -0.74%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.09%) were at the bottom of today's sector list. The labor market added only 194,000 payrolls in September against a forecast of 500,000. However, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.8%, while analysts expected 5.1%. Average Hourly Earnings grew faster than expected. The US Dollar weakened for the day, with the dollar index (DXY) declining -0.10%. US Treasury yields rose for another day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall along with Treasury prices (prices fall, yields rise). Crude Oil Futures soared back to record highs. Timber fell, but Copper and Aluminum rose. The put/call ratio fell to 0.734. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the middle of the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed to 68.6 after declining to 55.02 the previous week. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) gained today, closing above its 50d moving average line. Microsoft (MSFT) closed flat after climbing mid-day. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list again with a +3.54% gain. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were also in the top four, carrying the Energy sector higher. Upwork (UPWK) was the top performer in the daily update growth list. The list contains mostly decliners today, with MongoDB (MDB) dropping the most at -5.05%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no significant economic events scheduled for Monday. Next week will kick-off earnings season for big banks, but none are on the schedule for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq steadily declined from the 21d EMA throughout the day but closed above the 14,500 support area. The five-day trend line points to a +1.64% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line ends with a -0.38% decline. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -1.60% loss to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It doesn't take much to cause declines in this skittish market. The lack of new payrolls, while the unemployment rate dropped in September, is a head-scratcher. Add that to the research list for this weekend. The expectation for Monday is sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 10/7Summary: A deal over raising the debt-ceiling eased investor worries and sent markets higher on Thursday. The rally included broad gains across the market, with small caps and growth stocks leading the way. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 7, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59% (w/gap), Body: 16% Green Good: Gap up at open and rally in morning, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Resistance at 21d EMA, lost momentum in afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thin green body at bottom of the candle after a gap up Advance/Decline: 1.8, almost two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.83%), DJI (+0.98%), RUT (+1.59%), VIX (-6.95%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.56%) and Health (XLV +1.33%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A deal over raising the debt-ceiling eased investor worries and sent markets higher on Thursday. The rally included broad gains across the market, with small caps and growth stocks leading the way. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +1.05%. After a gap-up at open, the morning rally led to a +1.75% advance. The advance met resistance at the 21d EMA and fell back from the intraday high. The candle has a thin 16% green body resting under a long upper wick. The closing range is 59%, including the gap at open. Almost two stocks advanced for every declining stock. Small-caps did very well, advancing the Russell 2000 (RUT) +1.59% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.98%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) was up +0.83%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -6.95%. Ten of the eleven SPDR sectors advanced today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.56%) and Health (XLV +1.33%) were at the top. The defensive sectors of Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 326,000 against an expectation of 348,000. The recovery for the labor market seems to be back on track. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.27%. Treasury Yields rose as well, climbing in the afternoon, which may explain the fallback from intraday highs in the Nasdaq. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices ticked slightly higher while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved lower. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all rose or the day. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.739 after hitting its highest point in a year yesterday. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in Fear but moved further toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index climbed to 68.6 after declining to 55.02 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) joined Microsoft (MSFT) in moving above its 21d EMA, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed above its 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a +8.26% gain. Investors are hoping a meeting between Biden and Xi will ease US-China tensions. Only a handful of mega-caps declined today, with Facebook (FB) sitting at the bottom of the list. Chinese stocks dominated the top of the Daily Update Growth List. Alibaba (BABA), NIO (NIO), UP Fintech (TIGR), and JD.com (JD) were the top four. Like the mega-cap list, only five stocks declined for the day, with Facebook (FB) being the worst performer. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Additional employment data will be available on Friday. The data will include Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change, and the Unemployment rate. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq blasted through the 14,500 resistance area and climbed to meet resistance at its 21d EMA line. The one-day and five-day trend lines are moving in opposite directions but meet up at a +0.10% gain for Friday. If the rally loses steam and the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 top, that would mean a -2.11% gain for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This year, we've endured multiple cases of pending doom turned into optimistic rallies when the worries ease. Supply chain woes, Inflation, Interest Rates, Employment, the Debt-ceiling are just a few of the big ones that we've pushed through. Given the resistance at the 21d EMA, perhaps tomorrow will be Sideways. Otherwise, I'd expect Higher unless something looks wrong in the employment data. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 10/6Summary: Markets rebounded from early morning losses after a deal to lift the debt ceiling until December made investors more optimistic. Defensive sectors led the day, indicating some nervousness still exists in the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 06, 2021 Facts: +0.47%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 85% Green Good: Higher high, thick green body, high closing range Bad: Lower low, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bullish engulfing candle, Mostly green body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.46, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.41%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-0.60%), VIX (-1.41%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.55%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.97%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.19%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets rebounded from early morning losses after a deal to lift the debt ceiling until December made investors more optimistic. Defensive sectors led the day, indicating some nervousness still exists in the market. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.47% gain. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 97% closing range came at the end of a bullish afternoon, creating a candle with an 85% green body. The lower wick is short, while the upper wick is almost invisible. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.30%. Small-caps could not fully recover from the morning losses, and the Russell 2000 (RUT) closed with a -0.60% decline. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) remained elevated despite a -1.41% decline today. Defensive sectors topped the sector list with Utilities (XLU +1.55%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.97%) leading the way up. Eight of the eleven SPDR sectors gained for the day. Materials (XLB -0.19%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) are at the bottom of the list. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came in higher than expected, providing a positive outlook for the labor market. Crude Oil Inventories showed less demand than forecast. Today, US Republican Senator Mitch McConnell revealed that Republicans could agree to a short-term lifting of the debt ceiling until December. The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced by +0.27% for the day. US 30y and 10y yields started the day with a sharp rise but ended with a slight decline while the 2y yield rose steadily throughout the day. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced slightly for the day. Crude Oil Futures pulled back from record highs after inventories were higher than expected. Timber, Copper, Aluminum all declined. The put/call ratio soared to its highest intraday level in a year but came back down to end the day at 0.919. The high ratio shows a bearish sentiment in investors. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range from Extreme Fear earlier this week. All four largest mega-caps gained today. Microsoft (MSFT) overtook its 21d EMA again with a +1.51% gain. PepsiCo (PEP) was the best mega-cap of the day after pleasing investors with an earnings beat and improved outlook for this year. Toyota Motor (TM ) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -3% decline. The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List had another positive day. CloudFlare (NET) topped the list for a second day, gaining 15% over the two days. Ehang Holdings (EH) was at the bottom of the list. www.tradingview.com -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be available before the market opens on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed at the 14,500 resistance area after the morning dip turned into an afternoon rally. The one-day trend line points to a +1.01% gain for Thursday. The trend line from the 9/7 high and the five-day trend line end with a -1.16% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The willingness of Republicans to temporarily extend the debt ceiling until December is a positive for wary investors who were positioning for the worst. It's still not a done deal and also just pushes the deadline out for two months. But in the meantime, it shows the Republicans don't want to force the issue to catastrophe. Based on the bullish engulfing candle and the move higher on higher volume, the expectation is for Sideways or Higher. There would be more conviction in a move higher if the advance/decline ratio showed more gains broadly across the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 10/5Summary: Stocks bounced higher following days of selling in big tech and growth stocks. While economic indicators are looking positive, fears still loom over the debt ceiling debate in Washington. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 05, 2021 Facts: +1.25%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 58% Green Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Later afternoon fade from intraday high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long upper wick over a green body covering half the candle Advance/Decline: 1.04, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.05%), DJI (+0.92%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (-7.23%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.96%) and Communications (XLC +1.49%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.25%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks bounced higher following days of selling in big tech and growth stocks. While economic indicators are looking positive, fears still loom over the debt ceiling debate in Washington. The Nasdaq advanced +1.25% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a green body covering the lower half of the range, leaving a long upper wick formed from selling right before close. The body is 58% of the candle, while the closing range is at 64%. There were about the same number of advancing and declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.05% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.92%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.49%. The VIX Volatility Index declined -7.23% but remained elevated. Financials (XLF +1.96%) and Communications (XLC +1.49%) led the sector list. Only two sectors declined, Utilities (XLU -0.25%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%). Energy (XLE +0.58%) led in the morning, opening with a +2.43% gain before fading to end the day with a +0.58% gain. Technology (XLK +1.43%) was in close third place for the day. While Trade Balance data was not super positive, domestic measures of the economy in the form of Services and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing activity were higher than expected. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining + 0.19% for the day. US Treasury yields gained for the day but do not seem to be on an out-of-control ascent that we feared late last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) prices declined. Crude Oil Futures continue to soar higher. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.627. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range after hitting Extreme Fear yesterday. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) seem to be forming a base that could take them higher as they attempt to move back above key moving average lines. Netflix (NFLX) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining over 5% and hitting a new all-time high. Merck (MRK) was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day as investors took profits from recent gains. CloudFlare (NET) and Digital Turbine (APPS) topped the daily update growth list with +8.52% and +6.06% gains. Most of the stocks on the list did well today. The biggest losers at the bottom of the list were Zoom Video (ZM) and Penn National Gaming (PENN). PepsiCo (PEP) gained +0.59% for the day after beating expectations and improving their outlook for the year in a pre-market earnings release. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment Change tomorrow morning will show any progress in the labor market recovery. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens. A planned vote for tomorrow on raising the debt ceiling is likely to be rejected by Republicans and could cause more volatility in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq support at 14,200 in yesterday's session turned into gains today before the index met resistance at 14,500. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, we can expect a +1.16% gain and move above the 14,500 support/resistance area. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -0.47% decline for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends in a -0.99% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The debt ceiling vote tomorrow seems already decided, with Republicans publicly rejecting the measure. Nonetheless, the drama playing out in Washington will cause volatility in the market. Based on the chart, the expectation is Sideways or Higher but prepare for a wild ride. Stay healthy and trade safe!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
7
Daily Market Update for 10/4Summary: Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 04, 2021 Facts: -2.14%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 75% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Large decline, low advance/decline ratio, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper wick, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.29, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.30%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-1.08%), VIX (+8.82%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.63%) and Utilities (XLU +1.38%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.14% decline. The selling started right at the market open and continued through the morning, creating a large red body covering 75% of the candle. The lower wick formed from a slight gain in the afternoon. The closing range was 23%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better, only losing -0.94% for the day as the Energy sector helped the index. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.30%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.08%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +8.56% for the day. Energy (XLE +1.63%) topped the sector list thanks to Monday morning's OPEC meeting news. The only other two sectors to gain for the day were Utilities (XLU +1.38%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%), both defensive sectors. Two growth sectors, Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) were at the bottom of the sector list. OPEC decided to hold output at current levels, predicting higher demand in the next several months. Factory Orders data released in the morning showed 1.2% month-over-month growth compared to the forecast of 1.0%. The US dollar index (DXY) declined -0.29%. US Treasury Yields were up for the day but settled back from a morning spike that panicked investors. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices were down sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also fell for the day. Crude Oil Futures was up +3.72% today. Copper and Aluminum futures also gained on the day, likely because of the higher-than-expected Factory Orders data. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.759. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped back into Extreme Fear. All four of the largest mega-caps had significant declines for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) seem to be getting some support at their current level, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still in free-fall. Merck (MRK) was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Exxon Mobil (XOM). At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Facebook (FB), which dealt with a multi-hour outage across its large social platforms. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List advanced for the day. Tesla (TSLA) and CloudFlare (NET) ended the day with gains. The worst stocks on the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), Fastly (FSLY), and FUTU Holding (FUTU), all with more than 7% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data will be available Tuesday morning before the market opens, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will come after the opening bell. PepsiCo (PEP) releases earnings before the market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support at a previous support/resistance level of 14,200. If the index can regain the trend-line from the 9/7 high, that will be a +1.04% advance for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.26% decline. A continuation of today's one-day trend line ends with another -1.23% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fear continues to grow over the debt ceiling discussion in Washington while mini-disasters play out worldwide, from the Evergrande challenge in China to the Energy crunch in the UK. Rising yields and higher inflation are bad news for Big Tech and Growth stocks. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 10/1Summary: Markets fell in the morning before bouncing and closing higher as investors returned to reopening trades and went hunting for discounts in the growth sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 01, 2021 Facts: +0.82%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 86%, Body: 25% Green Good: High closing range, closed above the 14,500 support area Bad: Big dip in the morning, gain on lower volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick under a small green body in the upper half of the candle Advance/Decline: Not available today Indexes: SPX (+1.15%), DJI (+1.43%), RUT (+1.69%), VIX (-8.60%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.36%) and Communications (XLC +1.69%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.02%) and Utilities (XLU +0.00%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets fell in the morning before bouncing and closing higher as investors returned to reopening trades and went hunting for discounts in the growth sectors. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.82% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 25% green body sits above a long lower wick that formed in the morning. The index recovered to end the day with a 86% closing range. The lower high and lower low for the day continues a downtrend. Small caps performed well for the day, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +1.69%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.15%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.43%. The VIX Volatility Index declined -8.60% but remains above moving averages. All sectors gained for the day. Energy (XLE +3.36%) and Communications (XLC +1.69%) were at the top of the sector list. Health (XLV +0.02%) and Utilities (XLU +0.00%) were at the bottom. PCE Price Index data was higher than forecast, but not enough to alarm investors. Manufacturing data showed higher than expected activity. Consumer Sentiment numbers were higher than forecast. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell for another day after hitting a 52-week high on Wednesday. Treasury yields also retreated for the day. The gap between long-term and short-term yields is widening. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.737. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range after dipping to Extreme Fear earlier this week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 55.02 from 77.7 the previous week. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained over +2% as investors bought big tech stocks at a discount. Merck (MRK) entered the mega-cap list with a +8.37% gain after announcing an anti-viral pill that lowers the risk of hospitalization and death in COVID patients. Walt Disney (DIS) gained +4.04% for the day after settling a lawsuit with Scarlett Johansson. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -2.60% decline. PENN National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) were at the top of the daily update growth list with +8.52% and +4.98% gains. At the bottom of the list were RH (RH) and Lemonade (MND), both declining more than -3%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is an OPEC meeting scheduled for Monday morning. Factory Orders data for August will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped to 14,300 before recovering and closing above the 14,500 support area. The one-day trend line leads to a +1.65% gain on Monday. Following the trend line from the 9/7 high would result in a -0.40% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.90% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was nice to end the week with a gain in the markets. However, the gain came on lower volume, and the Nasdaq is still in a downtrend. Still, investors seemed optimistic about the economy as they increased bets in reopening trades and shopped for discounts in big tech stocks. It's amazing what a little pill can do for optimism. Thanks Merck! The expectation for Monday is Sideways, while the market determines if today's low was a bottom. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 9/30Summary: The market ended a red month with another red day while investors await action in congress on government funding, the debt ceiling, and the infrastructure bill. September is the first monthly decline for the S&P 500 since January. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, September 30, 2021 Facts: -0.44%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 71% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lost support at 14,500, failed after rally precedes new intraday low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body at bottom of the candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.71, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-1.19%), DJI (-1.59%), RUT (-0.94%), VIX (+2.57%) Sector List: Communications (XLC -0.31%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.80%) and Industrials (XLI -2.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market ended a red month with another red day while investors await action in congress on government funding, the debt ceiling, and the infrastructure bill. September is the first monthly decline for the S&P 500 since January. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.44% decline. An afternoon rally failed, and the index set a new intraday low in the last hour of trading, ending the day with a 2% closing range. The 71% red body sits at the bottom of the candle with a long upper wick formed in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking the third day of distribution for the index. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -1.59% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended a red month with a -1.19% decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.94%. The VIX Volatility Index remains high with a +2.57% gain today. All sectors declined today. Communications (XLC -0.31%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were the best sectors for the day and were in positive territory before the late afternoon selling. Investors see opportunities to buy growth stocks at a discount. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.80%) and Industrials (XLI -2.05%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Revised GDP data for Q2 came in slightly higher than expected at 6.7% quarter-over-quarter. Initial Jobless Claims were worse than expected for another week and are trending higher. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell slightly for the day after hitting a 52 week high yesterday. US Treasury Yields fell back from their recent gains. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined for the day. Silver and Gold climbed +3.03% and +1.82% as alternative safe-haven investments. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all fell sharply for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 0.870 as investors grew more bearish. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped into the Extreme Fear area. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 55.02 from 77.7 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL) declined for the day and traded below their key moving average lines. Only a handful of stocks in the mega-cap list gained today. Netflix (NFLX) topped the list with a +1.88% gain. At the bottom of the list was Oracle (ORCL), with a -4.52% decline. The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List did not do too bad considering the index performance, with most of the stocks in the list gaining for the day. Roku (ROKU) was at the top of the list with a +3.44% gain. RH (RH) declined sharply after topping the list yesterday, losing -4.04% today. The losses may be related to the ominous message in Bed Bath & Beyond's (BBBY) outlook for the holiday season. During its earnings call, the company gave a bleak message, sending the stock tumbling by over 20%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The biggest news will come overnight as Congress votes on key legislation to fund the government, raise the debt ceiling, and pass the infrastructure bill. In the morning, inflation data will be made available for August. The PCE Price Index data comes before the market opens. After the market opens, we'll have a new ISM Manufacturing PMI, which shows activity in the manufacturing sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 14,500 support area. The 21d EMA crossed below the 50d MA. If the index can return to the trend line from the 9/7 high, it would result in a +0.87% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.15% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.08% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There shouldn't be any surprises here if you've been following the updates. The indexes chopped up and down the past few days without any progress in Washington over funding the government and raising the debt ceiling. The sell-off in the last hour today was investors protecting against bad news tonight. At the same time, growth sectors led the day as some investors took the opportunity to buy positions at a discount. Now we wait. Based on the chart and three days of distribution, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/29Summary: Two failed rallies for the Nasdaq ended in a decline for the day while the Dow Jones completed the day with a gain. Growing concerns about the debt ceiling debate in Washington and continued inflation in the economy have Investors playing defense. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, September 29, 2021 Facts: -0.24%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 10%, Body: 56% Red Good: Held support above 14,500 Bad: Red body, lower high, lower low, close lower on high volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body in lower part of the candle Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.16%), DJI (+0.26%), RUT (-0.20%), VIX (-2.97%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.31%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.91%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.13%) and Materials (XLB -0.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Two failed rallies for the Nasdaq ended in a decline for the day while the Dow Jones completed the day with a gain. Growing concerns about the debt ceiling debate in Washington and continued inflation in the economy have Investors playing defense. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.24% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day. The closing range of 10% comes after two intraday rallies. Eventually, the 56% red body in the bottom of the candle led the index to rest above the 14,500 support area at the close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.26% as the NYSE had more gainers than losers for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +0.26% gain, but the Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.20%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -2.97% but remains high. Utilities (XLU +1.31%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.91%) were at the top of the sector list. Investors fled to defensive sectors to protect against further volatility. Growth and cyclical sectors were at the bottom of the list, with Technology (XLK -0.13%) and Materials (XLB -0.41%) performing the worst for the day. Pending Home Sales grew 8.1% in August vs. the forecast of 1.4%. Crude Oil Inventories were at 4.6 million barrels compared to a forecast of -1.7 million barrels. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose another +0.68% for the day, reaching its highest level since October 2020. Treasury Yields eased back slightly from recent gains. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices remained about the same. Silver declined -4.10% for the day. Gold also fell, losing -0.52%. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.729. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear area. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) were able to find support and end the day with gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) continued to tumble, losing another -1.09% today. Eli Lilly (LLY) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.95%. The company got an upgrade from Citigroup to a Buy rating and a new price target of $265. Netflix (MFLX) also performed well, gaining +2.61% after acquiring the video gaming company Night School. Alibaba (BABA) was the worst performer in the mega-cap list, declining -3.16%. The Daily Update growth list was mostly decliners for today. RH (RH) was the best performer, topping the list with a +1.65% gain. JD.com (JD) and Ehang Holding (EH) were at the bottom of the list, both losing more than 5% as Chinese stocks dropped lower today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We will get an update on Q2 GDP numbers tomorrow morning. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will also be available before the market opens. Several Fed officials will speak in the morning. Don't expect any significant updates on funding for the government or the debt ceiling until a scheduled vote late in the evening on Thursday. Paychex (PAYX), CarMax (KMX), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are a few interesting earnings reports to watch out for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had two failed rally attempts today before closing just above the 14,500 support area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 high, that would mean a gain of +0.88% for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.39% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.82% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There is not much to do other than wait for what happens in Washington over funding for the government and the debt ceiling. A default on US debt is not likely, but fear and doubt will continue to grow until the debate finishes. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 9/28Summary: Stocks fell on Tuesday among fears that the US government could shut down and default on its debt if there is no agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling this week. Treasury yields rose while interest-rate sensitive Technology stocks led markets lower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, September 28, 2021 Facts: -2.83%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 87% Red Good: Support above 14,500 Bad: Gap down at open, sell-off thru morning, close below key moving averages Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, small upper wick, smaller lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.17, almost six declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.04%), DJI (-1.63%), RUT (-2.25%), VIX (+23.93%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.34%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.44%) and Technology (XLK -2.96%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks fell on Tuesday among fears that the US government could shut down and default on its debt if there is no agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling this week. Treasury yields rose while interest-rate sensitive Technology stocks led markets lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined -2.83% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is 87% red body with small upper and lower wicks, and the closing range is 2%. There were nearly six declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -2.25%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -2.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.63%. The VIX Volatility Index soared +23.93%. Energy (XLE +0.34%) was the only sector to gain for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) was the next best sector but declined more than a half percent. The worst two sectors for the day were Communications (XLC -2.44%) and Technology (XLK -2.96%). Consumer Sentiment released in the morning came in lower than forecast. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen warned Congress that an economic crisis would occur if politicians did not agree to raise the debt ceiling. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose to its highest in 2021 with a +0.34% gain today. The US 2y Treasury Yield rose to its highest point since March 2020, while the 30y and 10y yields reached their highest level in three months. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply. Gold declined as the US dollar strengthened. Crude Oil Futures continue to rise. Timber fell significantly for the day. Aluminum Futures reached back to record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.836. the CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but remained in the Fear range. The largest four mega-caps led the market lower, with all four closing below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines in a clear breakdown of support. Only two mega-caps, Alibaba (BABA) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), gained on the day. Nvidia (NVDA) incurred the most significant loss with a -4.44% decline. Technology and Communications stocks dominated the bottom of the mega-cap list. Alibaba was also the only gainer in the daily update growth list. Cloudflare (NET) was the biggest loser in the list, with a -7.92% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories become available after the market opens. The more important news will be any progress in Washington toward raising the debt ceiling. Jabil (JBL) releases earnings before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped well below its 21d EMA and 50d MA before getting support above the 14,500 area. The one-day trend line points to another -0.61% decline for tomorrow. A return to the five-day trend line ends with a +1.05% advance. Getting back to the trend line from the 9/20 low would result in a +1.98% gain on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up When we approached the Fed's tapering decision last week, I thought we might see higher yields and a 2-3% or worse decline following the news. Instead, it's taken the fear of a government default on debt to scare investors out of stocks and bonds finally. What can we expect from here? As with all politics, we can expect a lot of drama and a long, drawn-out decision. Unless surprise progress is made, fears will only grow as we approach Janet Yellen's estimate of October 18th as the day the government will run out of funding. Yields will continue to rise as investors demand higher returns for higher risk as the government heads toward possible default. Technology and Growth stocks will continue to head lower. The expectation for tomorrow is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 9/27Summary: Despite gains in the broader market, the technology sector weighed down the Nasdaq as Treasury yields increased. Core Durable Goods orders exceeded pre-pandemic levels and showed high demand for transportation items such as airplanes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, September 27, 2021 Facts: -0.52%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 76%, Body: 11% Green Good: Rebound off the intraday low at the 50d MA Bad: Close below the 21d EMA, decline on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin green body in upper half of the candle Advance/Decline: 1.26, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.28%), DJI (+0.21%), RUT (+1.46%), VIX (+5.69%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Financials (XLF +1.36%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.42%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Despite gains in the broader market, the technology sector weighed down the Nasdaq as Treasury yields increased. Core Durable Goods orders exceeded pre-pandemic levels and showed high demand for transportation items such as airplanes. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.52% decline after dipping more than one percent in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day. After the morning dip, the index trended up for the rest of the day before pulling back from the late-afternoon intraday high. The thin green body in the upper half of the candle shows an indecisive day for the Nasdaq while the broader stock market rose. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied in the morning as investors rotated into small caps. The index rose +1.46% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also gained for the day, advancing +0.21%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.28%, weighed down by Technology mega-caps. Cyclical sectors dominated the top of the sector list, with Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Financials (XLF +1.36%) leading the way. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.54%) was the only non-cyclical sector to gain for the day. Defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list, with Health (XLV -1.42%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) having the most significant losses. Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8% in August compared to the forecast of 0.7%. However, Core Durable Goods Orders, which excludes transportation items, rose only 0.2% compared to a forecast of 0.5%. Demand for transportation items rebounded to exceed pre-pandemic levels. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.14%. Treasury Yields on both long-term and short-term notes rose while the gap tightened. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Crude Oil Futures headed higher for the day, while aluminum futures fell back from record highs. The put/call ratio declined to 0.518, a very bullish level. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the center of the Fear range. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day, moving back below critical moving average lines. Of the four, Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant decline, losing -1.73%. Alibaba (BABA) was at the top of the mega-cap list with a +3.52% gain, followed by Energy and Financial mega-caps that gained over 2%. At the bottom of the list was Adobe, with a -3.06% decline. The daily update growth list had mixed results. The best performer for the day was GrowGeneration (GRWG), which gained +4.77%. CloudFlare (NET) was the biggest loser, declining -5.79%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence data will be in the spotlight tomorrow after the market opens. Other data released in the morning includes Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers will be available after the market closes. The Fed's Jerome Powell will update Congress on the economic recovery and Fed monetary policy. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq tested the 50d MA and closed below the 21d EMA. After the morning dip, the index trended up for the rest of the day. If the one-day trend were to continue, it would lead to a +0.58% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 9/20 low point to a +0.97% gain for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Higher yields and a strengthening USD are both going to place downward pressure on Technology stocks. The economic context that's creating the rising yields and dollar is supportive to small-caps and cyclicals. Based on the indecisive candle with a small green body, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 9/24Summary: Markets rallied for a third day on an improved economic outlook, bolstered by the Fed's Jerome Powell, who stated the economic decline and rally back to health is without modern precedent. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, September 24, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 84%, Body: 71% Green Good: Close above 21d EMA, support in the ~15,000 area Bad: Close lower, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly green body Advance/Decline: 0.55, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (-0.49%), VIX (-4.72%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +0.82%) and Energy (XLE +0.75%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.14%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets rallied for a third day on an improved economic outlook, bolstered by the Fed's Jerome Powell, who stated the economic decline and rally back to health is without modern precedent. The Nasdaq closed slightly lower and on lower volume than the previous day. Although a lower close, the day was dominated by buyers after a dip at open. The closing range of 84% shows buyers took the day. However, there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock, indicating investors were very particular on where to place investments. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.15% for the day while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.10%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.49%, pulling back from two days of significant gains. Communications (XLC +0.82%) and Energy (XLE +0.75%) were the top sectors for the day. Defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list again, with Health (XLV -0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.14%) having the worst losses. New Home Sales exceed forecasts. The reported 740,000 sales compared to the estimates of 714,000. Jerome Powell spoke in the morning on the economy, and he highlighted how businesses are working around the challenges of the pandemic. US Treasury Yields rose for a second day. The gap between long and short-term notes expanded. The US Dollar index gained +0.21%. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined to the day. Crude Oil prices continued to march higher. The Put/Call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.696. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear area, moving back toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 77.7 from 87.02 the previous week. Three of the four largest mega-caps are trading above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Only Apple (AAPL) remains below the key moving averages. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.71%, helping the communications sector rise to the top of the sector list. Costco (COST) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.31% after announcing it was putting purchase limits back on some items such as toilet paper. The problem is not just over-purchasing, as seen earlier in the pandemic, but also because of shipping delays and supply chain disruptions. Nike (NKE) declined -6.26% and ended the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The company announced earnings that showed excellent growth but lowered sales forecasts due to supply chain issues. The daily update growth list was dominated by decliners today. SNAP (SNAP) ended the day as the top stock in the list with a +4.71% gain, lifting higher with the rest of the communications sector. Gains quickly tapered off into losses as we moved down the ranking. UP Fintech (TIGR) was the worst-performing stock in the list, declining -7.34%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Durable Goods Orders for August will be available on Monday morning. John Williams and Lael Brainard of the FOMC are to make comments later in the morning. There are no interesting earnings reports for the Daily Update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA in the morning but could recover and close above the line in the afternoon. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 9/20 low point to a +0.98% gain on Monday. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.52% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today marks one year for the Daily Market Update. It started out looking very different, but I'm proud to have written an update every single trading day for the past year, learning a ton along the way. Still learning a lot every day. Thanks to those who've read, liked, and commented on the updates this past year. Despite some profit-taking ahead of the weekend, Friday was not a bad way to close a choppy week which started with a very bearish move on Monday. The pivot was undoubtedly the Fed's statements on Wednesday that showed optimism for the economy while still not signaling an overly rushed bond tapering. Based on today's result, the expectation for Monday is sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 9/23Summary: The Fed's reassurances on the economic outlook from Wednesday turned investors optimistic and sent indexes higher. Energy and Financials topped the sector list for a second day, two sectors that often lead the market out of a slump. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, September 23, 2021 Facts: +1.04%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 78%, Body: 60% Green Good: High A/D ratio, mostly green body Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 2.05, two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.21%), DJI (+1.48%), RUT (+1.82%), VIX (-10.73%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.50%) and Financials (XLF +2.45%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed's reassurances on the economic outlook from Wednesday turned investors optimistic and sent indexes higher. Energy and Financials topped the sector list for a second day, two sectors that often lead the market out of a slump. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +1.04% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 78% closing range is above a 60% green body surrounded by short upper and lower wicks. The upper wick formed as the index faded from the intraday high in the afternoon. The morning rally was enough to get the Nasdaq back above its 21d EMA line and remain above the critical support line in the afternoon. Small-caps led the day with a gain of +1.82% for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.21% and +1.48%, respectively. The VIX Volatility Index tumbled -10.73%. Energy (XLE +3.50%) and Financials (XLF +2.45%) were at the top of the sector list for a second day. Defensive sectors went to the bottom of the list, with Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) being the only two declining sectors today. Cyclicals dominated the top of the list as we move out of the slump, and investors see more growth in the near term. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected, but not enough to raise concern. The Manufacturing and Services PMI were just below targets but not too far off to cause an issue. Overall, things look optimistic for the economy, supporting the Fed's outlook on the recovery. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasuries all rose sharply for the day. The US Dollar index declined -0.38%. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Crude Oil prices were higher on Thursday. Timber continues to climb. Aluminum Futures is making new record highs. Copper declined slightly after a sharp advance yesterday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.571 for the day as investors grew bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear area after dipping into Extreme Fear earlier in the week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 77.7 from 87.02 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps advanced for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed back above their 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are approaching their key moving average lines but still closed below them today. Salesforce.com (CRM) updated guidance in the morning, which sent the stock to the top of the mega-cap list with a +7.21% gain. Big Banks and Big Oil dominated the other top mega-cap spots. Only four mega-caps declined, with Alibaba (BABA) having the worst performance of the day, declining -0.46%. The daily update growth list had a great day, but not all stocks enjoyed the rally. At the top of the list were Palantir (PLTR) and Digital Turbine (APPS), with gains of over 4.5%. The worst-performing stock in the list was RobinHood (HOOD) which declined -2.01% after soaring more than 10% yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead New Home Sales data becomes available after the market opens on Friday morning. The Fed's Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 10a on Friday morning. Friday's earning reports include Carnival Corp (CCL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above the 15,000 support area and its 21d EMA today. The trend line from the 9/20 low points to another +1.13% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.58% gain. The five-day trend line shows a -0.68% decline for tomorrow, a move back below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up New optimism helped close the gap from Monday's open, and we are just barely in the positive for the week. One more day of gains could turn what felt like a bearish week earlier into quite a constructive week to build on in the rest of September. We have Energy and Financials leading us out of a slump. We have good breadth across the market, with small-caps outperforming. Volume remains elevated as we move higher, with higher highs and higher lows the last three days. All that momentum sets an expectation for Higher tomorrow. Knock on wood. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/22Summary: The Fed's optimistic view on the economy and reluctance to set an exact timeline for bond tapering got a positive reaction from investors. The US Dollar strengthened while the Treasury yield curve flattened. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, September 22, 2021 Facts: +1.02%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 71%, Body: 53% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, high closing range with close above 50d moving average Bad: Longer upper wick from fade after intraday high, but not terrible Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Large green body under a long upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.85, almost two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.95%), DJI (+1.00%), RUT (+1.48%), VIX (-14.33%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +1.67%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.05%) and Utilities (XLU -0.06%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed's optimistic view on the economy and reluctance to set an exact timeline for bond tapering got a positive reaction from investors. The US Dollar strengthened while the Treasury yield curve flattened. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.02% gain. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a 53% green body with a 71% closing range. The upper wick is longer than the lower wick and formed after a fade from the intraday high set in the mid-afternoon. The morning half of the session was very bullish and brought the index above the 50d moving average line. There were almost two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed with a +1.48% gain. The Fed's outlook is particularly supportive to small caps as big tech and large caps benefited from the slump last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.00%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.95%. Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +1.67%) were the top sectors for the day. Communications (XLC -0.05%) and Utilities (XLU -0.06%) were the only two declining sectors. The Fed reiterated previous comments that the economy is still progressing despite headwinds from the Delta variant and that inflation remains transitory in their view. They will begin bond tapering soon, and more Fed officials see an interest rate hike in 2022 to be likely, with another in 2023. The fact that the fed did not announce a firm date on bond tapering while still maintaining a positive outlook on the economy is the likely cause of the very positive reactions from the market. The announcement that Evergrande in China would make its bond interest payment this week, after announcing earlier that it would delay the payment, gave investors confidence heading into the morning. The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened another +0.26%. 30y and 10y Treasury Yields dropped sharply while the 2y Treasury yield gained, flattening the yield curve. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Investment Bonds prices gained for the day. Crude Oil, Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all gained with Aluminum Futures shooting back to a new record high. The put/call ratio rose for the day, ending at 0.729. The higher ratio is likely from speculative bets placed before the Fed's announcement. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear but remained near the Extreme Fear level. The largest four mega-caps gained for the day but still have some work to do to get above their key moving average lines. Nvidia (NVDA) and Netflix (NFLX) were the leading mega-caps of the day, gaining more than 3%. Facebook (FB) tumbled -3.99% after the company admitted that Apple's privacy changes are impacting its business. Adobe (ADBE) also lost more than -3.07% despite a strong earnings report that beat estimates. Investors took some profits while some analysts still believe the stock is overpriced. The majority of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. RobinHood (HOOD) topped the list with a +10.85% gain after it announced it would add cryptocurrency wallets to its offering. Digital Turbine (APPS) was second in the list with a +7.48% gain. Peloton (PTON) was at the bottom of the list with a -6.31% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be available on Thursday. Manufacturing and Services PMI will give an indication of economic activity. Nike (NKE), Accenture (CAN), and Costco (COST) will release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied in the morning to rise above its 50-day moving average line. It neared the 15,000 support/resistance, setting the intraday high just after the Fed's announcement. It closes the day just above the 50-day moving average line. The one-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain for tomorrow to continue the rally. If the index returns to its downtrend, the trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -1.27% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.69% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Fed has carried a careful tone throughout the pandemic. While delivering a positive outlook for the economy, the Fed's Jerome Powell noted that much still depends on the pandemic. He announced that bond tapering would start soon but did not set a hard date for beginning or a deadline for when to complete the tapering. Although interest rate hikes are now likely in 2022, officials still see the 2022 and 2023 interest rate rises to be small. The higher close on higher volume today and closing above the 50d moving average line show strength. There was resistance in the ~15,000 area, which may continue in tomorrow's session. The expectation is for Sideways or Higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/21Summary: Equity markets chopped up and down to end sideways while Treasury yields rose as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed announcements on Wednesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, September 21, 2021 Facts: +0.22%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 33%, Body: 38% Red Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Choppy day, faded into close Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small body in between two equal size wicks Advance/Decline: 0.94, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.15%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (-5.25%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.23%) and Health (XLV +0.15%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.42%) and Industrials (XLI -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity markets chopped up and down to end sideways while Treasury yields rose as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed announcements on Wednesday. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.22% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 38% red body sits in the middle of the candle with equal-sized upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 33%. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with an advance, gaining +0.18%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was off -0.15%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -5.25%. Five sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +0.23%) and Health (XLV +0.15%) were at the top of the sector list. Communications (XLC -0.42%) and Industrials (XLI -0.53%) at the bottom. Building Permits and Housing Starts showed a more bullish outlook for the economy, with both exceeding forecast. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock also showed higher demand than expected. The US Dollar weakened slightly, with the index declining -0.02%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose for the day while the 2y remained flat. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices remained the same. Gold and Silver both rose for the day. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to drop. Timber prices rose, likely on the positive Building Permits data. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined the last two days sharply, likely from investors positioning for a strengthening US Dollar. The put/call (PCCE) ratio dropped to 0.604. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Extreme Fear area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead US Existing Home Sales data and Crude Oil Inventories updates come in the morning. The Bank of Japan will make a Monetary Policy Statement overnight. This week, nothing is more significant than the Fed meeting and the statements coming at 2p on economic projects and interest rate decisions. Investors are looking for comments on when bond tapering will begin. General Mills will release earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq chopped up and down in today's session, showing indecision in the market ahead of the Fed announcements. The one-day trend line points to another gain of +0.20% tomorrow. The trend line from the 9/7 high ends with a -0.19% decline. The five-day trend line shows a -1.06% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Tomorrow is the big day. The Fed will likely make a firm announcement around bond tapering, and we'll get an update on when Fed officials see interest rate hikes happening. But just as important will be the Economic Projections and the Fed's view on inflation which some experts see as easing for the remainder of the year. What should happen after that is the US Dollar strengthening and Treasury Yields rising. Those two moves will put downward pressure on mega-caps and growth stocks. We'll likely get another 2-3% decline in the indexes over the subsequent two trading sessions. If the reaction is worse, we could see the Nasdaq visit the 200-day moving average, which it has not touched since April 2020. There is the possibility that investors already priced in some of this news. It shouldn't come as a surprise to them that bond tapering will begin, and interest rate timing estimates will likely be pulled forward. If the Fed is more dovish than expected, we could have an opposite reaction and see a rally through the end of the week. That leads to the chart and the indecision in today's candle. The indecision in the candle and big economic event tomorrow leads to an expectation for Sideways, only because I don't allow myself to put an "I don't know." :) Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/20Summary: The narrow gains that held up markets last week turned into broad selling today, causing a sharp decline in all four major indexes. Fears that China's Evergrande would default on credit obligations exasperated worries over the health of the economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, September 20, 2021 Facts: -2.19%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59%, Body: 14% Red Good: Support at 14,500 turned to late afternoon rally Bad: Gap-down, selling all-day Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.14, seven declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.70%), DJI (-1.78%), RUT (-2.44%), VIX (+23.55%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.24%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.74%) and Energy (XLE -4.22%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The narrow gains that held up markets last week turned into broad selling today, causing a sharp decline in all four major indexes. Fears that China's Evergrande would default on credit obligations exasperated worries over the health of the economy. The Nasdaq closed -2.19% lower, after plunging almost -3.5% intra-day. The gap-down at open put the index below its 50d moving average line. After the morning sell-off, a rally in the last hour of trading brought the index back to a 59% closing range. The result is a small red body in the middle of a short upper and long lower wick. Volume was higher than average, albeit lower than Friday's extraordinarily high volume. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed the worst among the major indexes, declining -2.44%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.70%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) dropped -1.78%. The VIX Volatility index was up 38.41% intraday but ended the day with a +23.65% gain. All sectors declined for the day. Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) were the best performing sectors as investors turned to safe-havens. Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) were the bottom two sectors for the day. During the rally in the final hour, Financials and Energy performed best as they attempted recovery from significant losses. US Treasury Yields declined for the day as the gap continues to close between long-term and short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) corporate bonds sold off sharply while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices increased. Commodities were down across the board except for Gold which rose for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 0.833. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Extreme Fear. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all gapped down at open. Only Microsoft and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed the day above their 50d moving average. Only two mega-caps, Pfizer (PFE) and Eli Lilly (LLY) gained for the day. The worst performing mega-cap was Alibaba (BABA), declining more than -5%. The daily update growth list also had only two advancing stocks, Paycom (PAYC) and Chewy (CHWY). Chinese stocks UP Fintech (TIGR) and NIU (NIU) were the worst performers in the list, declining -8.6% and -9.2%, respectively. China's Evergrande made public over the weekend that they may not meet debt obligations due on Thursday. Some compare the possible default of the property giant with the failures of Lehman Brothers in the financial crisis. However, many experts believe the speculative comparison is incorrect. Nonetheless, it gave investors another thing to worry about on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be available on Tuesday. Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and AutoZone (AZO) are earnings reports to watch out for on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dove well below its 50d moving average line. The selling continued until just above the 14,500 area. A rally in the last hour recovered some of the losses. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a +0.50% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.02% decline. Such a sideways move for the index would be a welcome pause. The one-day trend line leads to another -2.27% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears on top of a weak market last week turned into panic on Monday. It seemed some sanity entered back into the picture with the final hour of buying. Maybe the economy is ok. Maybe Evergrande isn't so much of a doomsday event. Maybe, but we'll have to see how the market carries itself tomorrow ahead of the Fed's announcements on Wednesday. The expectation is for Sideways or Lower on Tuesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 9/17 Summary: Indexes closed lower while volume soared on quadruple-witching Friday. Only the Russell 2000 was able to end the day with gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. The Daily Market Update growth list is here: www.tradingview.com It is not a list of all growth stocks, and the stocks in the list are not recommendations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, September 17, 2021 Facts: -0.91%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 27%, Body: 71% Red Good: Support at 15,000 Bad: Close below 21d EMA, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.82, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.91%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (+11.34%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.10%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.35%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.56%) and Materials (XLB -2.06%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes closed lower while volume soared on quadruple-witching Friday. Only the Russell 2000 was able to end the day with gains. The Nasdaq moved back below its 21d EMA with a -0.91% decline today. Volume was more than 50% over average daily volume due to index and stock options expiration. The candle is primarily red body with a small lower wick. The closing range of 27% came after a rally before close. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only index to gain for the day, advancing +0.18%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.91%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.48%. The VIX Volatility index rose +11.34%. Only the Health (XLV +0.10%) sector ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.35%) was the second-best sector but declined for the day. Technology (XLK -1.56%) and Materials (XLB -2.06%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Michigan Consumer Sentiment data was slightly lower than expected. The US Dollar strengthened by +0.41%. Treasury Yields continue to rise as bond investors anticipate the Fed to begin tapering bond purchases later this year. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked along with Treasury prices to close lower. Silver dropped another -2.33%, while Gold remained about the same. Timber declined -1.40%. Aluminum is holding near record-high levels. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose 0.747. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 87.02 from 84.68 the previous week. All of the four largest mega-caps declined. Microsoft (MSFT) closed just above its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) also is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped below its 21d EMA, and Apple (AAPL) moved below its 50d MA. The mega-cap list had only ten advancing stocks for the day. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) was the top gainer with a 6.49% advance. The company provided strong guidance on growth at its investor's day event. PayPal (PYPL) was at the bottom of the list, declining -2.34%. Digital Turbine (APPS) was the top gainer in the daily update growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Watch for news on the $3.5 trillion budget that will include a corporate tax hike. Also, look for any signs from the Fed that bond tapering will begin. There are no relevant earnings reports for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back below the 21d EMA but found support above 15,000. If the five-day trend line continues into Monday, it will end with a +0.22% gain. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -0.48% decline. The one-day trend line ends with a -0.75% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A broad sell-off comes during a week of ups and downs among robust economic data. A positive for the economy, the data raises the possibility of the Fed tapering bond purchases faster. The result is rising yields on Treasury bonds and a strong US dollar, and both apply downward pressure on big tech and growth stocks. Add to that the potential for increased corporate taxes eating into earnings, and investors can expect further declines in the major indexes. The expectation for Monday is sideways or lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321