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Daily Market Update for 8/12Summary: Jobs data helped boost the markets to more records today, with big tech helping lead the way higher. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs for the third day in a row. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 12, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume higher, Closing range: 94%, Body: 52% Good: Another test with support at 21d EMA, green body over long lower wick Bad: Low A/D ratio, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, green body covers upper half of the candle. Advanced/Decline: 0.49, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.30%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (-0.28%), VIX (-3.05%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.79%) and Technology (XLK +0.57%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.16%) and Industrials (XLI -0.10%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Jobs data helped boost the markets to more records today, with big tech helping lead the way higher. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs for the third day in a row. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.35% gain on slightly higher volume than the previous day. The index declined after open but found support at the 21d exponential moving average line and moved higher the rest of the day. The 52% green body covers the upper half of the candle. The rally in the afternoon resulted in a 94% closing range. A lower high and higher low marks another inside day for the Nasdaq. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a +0.30% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.04%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell back -0.28%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.05%. Cyclical sectors fell back to the bottom of the sector list after leading for two days. Health (XLV) and Technology (XLK), which were at the bottom of the list yesterday, bounced back to the top of the sector list today. Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) were the worst-performing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Continuing Jobless Claims data was better than expected while Initial Jobless Claims matched the forecast. Produce Price Index Data was higher than expected, adding to inflation worries since higher producer prices eventually get passed along to higher consumer prices. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.11%. The US 30y Treasury yield was flat while the 10y and 2y Treasury yields rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for a second day. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.35%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.91%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps advanced, with Apple (AAPL) leading the way. Apple gained +2.08% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.00%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.67%. All three seem to be getting good support at their 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) tested its 200d moving average line before ending the day with a +0.35% advance. The Amazon chart is still in a clear decline. Salesforce.com (CRM), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Pfizer (PFE) topped the list of mega-caps today, all gaining over 2%. At the bottom of the list are Intel (INTC), Visa (V), Alibaba (BABA), and Exxon Mobil (XOM). The daily update growth stock is about half gainers and half losers. The top gainers were Palantir (PLTR), DraftKings (DKNG), Chewy (CHWY), and Snowflake (SNOW). The worst performing in the list today is NIO (NIO), Robinhood (HOOD), Lemonade (LMND), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.670. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range, moving toward neutral. The NAAIM exposure index remained about the same at 97.55. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Export and Import Price index data will wrap up the week's inflation data, while Consumer Sentiment data will give a reading on how consumers are weathering the resurging pandemic. There are no interesting earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support again at the 21d exponential moving average line. The same line is supporting three of the largest big tech companies as well. The one-day trend line and trend from the 7/19 low points to a +0.61% gain for Friday. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.55% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Jobs data shows continued strength in the economic recovery, a positive sign for more growth in the second half of the year. After rotating into Infrastructure stocks the past two days, the market snapped back to the technology stocks that dominate the Nasdaq. However, the gains were not broadly shared, with more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock in the index. The chart is still in a downtrend after hitting a record close last week. Today's inside day, with a green body and long lower wick, is a positive. However, there is still an open question on whether the Nasdaq will reverse the trend. The expectation for tomorrow is sideways, and we'll watch where the market wants to go next. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/11Summary: Recovery and value stocks helped send the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to yet another record close on the day after the Infrastructure bill made it through the Senate. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 11, 2021 Facts: -0.16%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 46% Good: Support at 21d EMA, rally after support creates longer lower wick Bad: Lower high, morning selling after hitting intraday high Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Red body covers upper half of candle, long lower wick covers lower half. Advanced/Decline: 0.83, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.25%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (-4.35%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.41%) and Industrials (XLI +1.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.01%) and Health (XLV -0.99%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Recovery and value stocks helped send the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to yet another record close on the day after the Infrastructure bill made it through the Senate. The Nasdaq closed with a loss of -0.16%. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. The index opened up with a short rally to the intraday high and then sold off through the morning until getting support at the 21d exponential moving average before moving higher. The action created a long lower wick underneath a 46% red body and a 48% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the growth-heavy Nasdaq. Beyond the Nasdaq, there were far more advancing stocks than declining stocks in the US markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) led the major indexes for another day with a +0.62% gain for another record close. The S&P 500 (SPX) also had a record close, advancing +0.25% today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.49%. The VIX volatility index declined -4.25%. Cyclical sectors led the sector list for another day, with Materials (XLB +1.41%) and Industrials (XLI +1.30%) performing the best with a boost from the Infrastructure bill progress. At the bottom of the list was Health Services (XLV -0.99%), weighed down by losses from several large vaccine providers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Inflation data available this morning included no huge surprises. The core consumer price index came in slightly lower than expected. Crude Oil Inventories showed lower demand than forecast. There was good demand for the 10-year Treasury Note auction in the afternoon, helping send yields lower. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.19%. The US 30y Treasury yield was flat while the 10y and 2y Treasury yields declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced after several days of decline. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0.03%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.79%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.18% today as they continue getting support at their 21d exponential moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) is well above the key moving average line but lost -0.39% today. Amazon (AMZN) tested its 200d simple moving average line today and ended the day with a -0.86% decline. Wells Fargo (WFC), Home Depot (HD), Bank of America (BAC), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the top mega-cap gainers today. Pfizer (PFE) declined -3.90% after data showed its vaccine might be less effective against the Delta variant of the COVID virus. Other mega-caps at the bottom of the list include Nvidia (NVDA), Visa (V), and Eli Lilly (LLY). The daily update growth list did a little better than yesterday but was still primarily decliners today. Etsy (ETSY), D.R Horton (DHI), DataDog (DDOG), and RH (RH) were the top four gainers on the list. At the bottom of the list are FUTU Holding (FUTU), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Robinhood (HOOD), and Cloudflare (NET). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio advanced to 0.749. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range, moving toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Produce Price Index data publishes on Thursday. We'll also get an update of Jobless Claims data that surprised investors last week. Wednesday's earnings reports include Walt Disney (DIS), Airbnb (BNB), DoorDash (DAH), Baidu (BIDU), Palantir (PLTR), Xpeng (XPEV), and LifeMD (LFMD). There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support at the 21d EMA today before recovering some of the morning losses. The trend from the 7/19 low points to a +1.00% gain for Thursday. The five-day and one-day trend lines end with a -0.22% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are no surprises today as the Infrastructure Bill moves investors back into recovery and value stocks, focused on those stocks likely to benefit from the spending bill. The Nasdaq declined for a second day as the rotation pulled people away from growth stocks that make up the index. There were many bullish indicators in the market today. Inflation is not out of control. Earnings reports continue to be strong, with positive outlooks. Demand for 10y Treasury notes remains high. Commodities advanced. Major indexes set record closes. Based on the chart, the Nasdaq got support at the 21d EMA today but is trending downward and may continue moving sideways or lower over the next few days as the current rotation completes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/10Summary: Value stocks were in the spotlight today after the passing of the infrastructure bill in the Senate initiated a rotation into cyclical sectors. The result was new record closes for the Dow Jones and S&P 500. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 10, 2021 Facts: -0.49%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, lower volume on decline Bad: Lower low, low closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day made of mostly selling after the morning high. Advanced/Decline: 0.66, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.46%), RUT (+0.20%), VIX (+0.42%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.76%) and Materials (XLB +1.51%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Value stocks were in the spotlight today after the passing of the infrastructure bill in the Senate initiated a rotation into cyclical sectors. The result was new record closes for the Dow Jones and S&P 500. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.49% loss for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. Three stocks declined for every two advancing stocks. The index attempted a rally in the morning but sold off quickly, resulting in a 71% red body and 24% closing range. The lower wick is longer than the upper wick. The higher high and lower low create an outside day following two inside days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.46%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.10%. Both closed at new records. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also closed the day with a gain, advancing +0.20%. The VIX volatility index advanced +0.42%. The four cyclical sectors led the sector list, with Energy (XLE +1.76%) and Materials (XLB +1.51%) topping the list. Only three sectors declined for the day. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) were the worst-performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Nonfarm Productivity for Q2 as well as Unit Labor Costs was lower than expected. API Weekly Crude Oil stock showed lower than expected demand. The Senate passed the Infrastructure Bill, which had the most significant influence on today's market. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.11%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day. The yield curve continues to steepen. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.43%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.79%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.557. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range, moving toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day, weighed down by the strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.08% after closing at a new high yesterday. Apple (AAPL) dropped -0.34% while Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.66%. Both tested their 21d exponential moving average lines and found support. Amazon (AMN) declined -0.63% and continues to trade around its 200d simple moving average. Pfizer (PFE) topped the mega-cap list today as the COVID resurgence continues to grow, prompting more demand for vaccines. Walmart (WMT), Wells-Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) filled out the top four mega-caps for the day. Salesforce.com (CRM), Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and PayPal (PYPL) were the worst-performing mega-cap stocks for the day. The daily update growth list had mostly losses today. Top gainers included RH (RH), DoorDash (DASH), Etsy (ETSY), and Cloudflare (NET). At the bottom of the list are MongoDB (MDB), Roku (ROKU), RobinHood (HOOD), and Digital Turbine (APPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get another look at inflation data on Wednesday with an update to the Consumer Price Index data in the morning. Crude Oil Inventories will come after the market opens. There is a 10y Treasury Note auction in the afternoon. Nio (NIO), eBay (EBAY), Opendoor (OPEN), Bumble (BMBL), Wendy's (WEN), and Lordstown Motors (RIDE) release earnings on Wednesday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq faded after a quick rally after the market open. The trend from the 7/19 low points to a +0.91% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends with a +0.37% gain. The one-day trend would put the index just above the 21d EMA with a -0.57% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Infrastructure FTW. Today's passing of the infrastructure bill had investors rotating into value stocks that are sensitive to economic cycles. Tomorrow we'll get new inflation data that may shift investor sentiment further into value or swing them back toward growth. Based on the outside day with a sizeable red body, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/9Summary: It was another inside day for the Nasdaq as the market entered the week with caution. The Delta variant of the virus continues to rise while positive employment data is turning the Fed toward more tapering discussion. The combination drove the dollar higher and Treasury prices lower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 9, 2021 Facts: +0.16%, Volume lower, Closing range: 71%, Body: 5% Good: Higher low, small gain on otherwise cautious day Bad: Lower high, indecisive day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Another inside day, indecisive candle with thin body in the upper half Advanced/Decline: 0.67, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.09%), DJI (-0.30%), RUT (-0.58%), VIX (+3.53%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.38%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Energy (XLY -1.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was another inside day for the Nasdaq as the market entered the week with caution. The Delta variant of the virus continues to rise while positive employment data is turning the Fed toward more tapering discussion. The combination drove the dollar higher and Treasury prices lower. The Nasdaq ended the day with a small advance, gaining +0.16%. The thin 5% body is in the upper half of the candle, which has a lower high and higher high than the previous day. That's the second inside day in a row as the market consolidates before choosing a direction. The closing range of 71% is a positive signal, but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.30%. Both closed at record highs on Friday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.58%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.53%. Only three sectors had gains today, with defensive sectors leading the list. Health (XLV +0.38%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) were the top two sectors. Both sectors got a boost from fears of rising cases of COVID around the world. Financials (XLF +0.26%) was third in the list, benefiting from higher yields on Treasuries. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Energy (XLY -1.41%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The JOLTs Job Openings report for June came in higher than expected, reinforcing the robust employment data last week. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.20%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +5.33%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.95%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.644. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Only Alphabet (GOOGL) gained for the day, advancing +0.87%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) lost -0.39% and -0.03% but remained above their 21d exponential moving average lines. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.09% and remained below the 21d EMA line and the 50d simple moving average line. Tesla (TSLA), Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Bank of America (BAC) were the top four mega-caps for the day. Accenture (ACN), United Health (UNG), Mastercard (MA), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the worst-performing mega-caps today. FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fastly (FSLY), UP Fintech (TIGR), and Fiverr (FVRR) were the top stocks of the day in the daily update growth list. At the bottom of the list is Workday (WDAY), Penn National Gaming (PENN), DataDog (DDOG), and Digital Turbine (APPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data will be available Tuesday morning, while Weekly Crude Oil Stock will get an update after the market closes. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Coinbase (COIN), Unity Software (U), Upstart (UPST), and Open Lending (LPRO). There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had its second inside day in a row as it consolidates before choosing a direction. All three trend lines point to a gain for tomorrow in the range from +0.36% for the one-day trend line to a +0.55% gain for the five-day trend line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market continues to toil with worries of the Delta variant of COVID while data shows a solid economic recovery, especially in the labor market. The rising number of COVID cases raises fears around new lockdowns that could impact the global economic recovery. On the other hand, the recovery in the labor market is a positive sign for the economy. However, it raises concerns around when the Fed will start tapering fiscal support, a topic that is becoming increasingly political. Investors are also watching closely the infrastructure bill, which could reach a vote in the Senate early in the week. Progress on the bill will finally take away some questions around government investment, but then attention will turn toward the $3.5 trillion reconciliation. Today's candle on the Nasdaq chart signals indecision for investors. So an expectation of Sideways tomorrow could turn into a higher or lower move. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/6Summary: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at new record highs while the Nasdaq pulled back in a rotation from growth to cyclical sectors. Positive employment data in the morning added to the possibility of agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that pushed investors towards the cyclical sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 6, 2021 Facts: -0.4%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 28% Good: Higher low, support after morning rotation dip Bad: Higher volume pullback from all time high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with small red body in upper half of candle Advanced/Decline: 0.84, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+0.53%), VIX (-6.54%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.02%) and Materials (XLE +1.45%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.17%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at new record highs while the Nasdaq pulled back in a rotation from growth to cyclical sectors. Positive employment data in the morning added to the possibility of agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that pushed investors towards the cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq declined -0.4% for the day on higher volume than the previous day. The 28% red body is high in the candle, with a longer lower wick than the upper wick, creating a 46% closing range. The lower high and higher low make an inside day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq, but more broadly, gaining stocks outnumbered losing stocks in the NYSE. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) set new record closes with +0.17% and +0.41% gains. Small caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed again, adding +0.53% to the index. The VIX volatility index declined -6.54%. Only the four cyclical sectors gained today, with Financials (XLF +2.02%) and Materials (XLE +1.45%) at the top of the list. Real Estate (XLRE -0.17%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Employment data was positive today, with Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment rate coming in better than expected. Consumer Credit was also higher than expected for June, signaling consumer confidence and spending by the public. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced to +0.57% on the solid economic data. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day while the gap between long-term and short-term yields widened. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.80%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.21%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.714. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 97.72. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined today. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.02% but shows a bullish inside day candle. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.38%. Apple (AAPL) fell -0.63%. Amazon (AMZN) lost -0.92% and is the only of the four to be trading below the 21d exponential and 50d simply moving average lines. Financial companies dominated the top of the mega-cap list, with Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) leading the day with gains. At the bottom of the list are ASML Holding (ASML), Alibaba (BABA), Tesla (TSLA), and Novo Nordisk (NVO). Robinhood (HOOD) ended a volatile first week with an 8% gain to top the daily update growth list today. Fastly (FSLY), Solar Edge (SEDG), and UP Fintech (TIGR) were the other top growth stocks on the list. NIO (NIO), Okta (OKTA), Peloton (PTON), and Zynga (ZNGA) were at the bottom of the list, with Zynga losing almost 20% on a disappointing outlook after beating earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Next week will open with the JOLTs Jon Openings data on Monday morning. BioNTech (BNTX), Trade Desk (TTD), Tyson Foods (TSN), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Chegg (CHGG), Cable One (CABO), Curaleaf (CURLF), Tilray (TLRY), Xpel (XPEL), Rocket Pharma (RCKT), and Vuzix (VUZI) are some of the companies opening up another busy earnings week with reports on Monday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new record today and closed near the high. The five-day trend line and the trend-line from the 7/19 low point to a +0.52% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.24% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This morning's positive employment data seems to have kicked off another mini-cycle, with the cyclical sectors gaining while growth stocks either paused or pulled back. The rotation could get a further catalyst if the infrastructure bill moves forward over the weekend. The inside day for the Nasdaq is within an uptrend and could result in a continuation of the trend. Expectation for Monday is sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/5Summary: The indexes set records again today after the morning jobless report came in better than expected. The anticipation of more positive news in Friday's employment data sent Treasury Yields and US equities higher. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 5, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 99%, Body: 84% Good: Large green body, high closing range with good A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body over a small lower wick, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.73, more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.60%), DJI (+0.78%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-3.84%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.31%) and Energy (XLE +1.13%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.14%) and Health (XLV -0.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indexes set records again today after the morning jobless report came in better than expected. The anticipation of more positive news in Friday's employment data sent Treasury Yields and US equities higher. The Nasdaq closed at a new record high with a +0.78% gain today. Volume was lower than the previous day. After breaking into a new record level, the index moved sideways for the afternoon before a rally into the close that left the candlestick with an 84% green body and 99% closing range. There were more than three stocks that advanced for every two stocks that declined. The S&P 500 (SPX) also had a record close with a +0.60% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.78%. Small caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed, contributing to a +1.81% gain for the index. The VIX volatility index declined -3.84%. Financials (XLF +1.31%) benefited from the rise in Treasury Yields, topping the sector list today. Energy (XLE +1.13%) was the second-best sector as the economic outlook brightened. Materials (XLB -0.14%) and Health (XLV -0.41%) were the only two sectors to lose today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Continuing Jobless Claims data was much better than expected, while Initial Jobless Claims were slightly higher than the forecast but in line with expectations. The Trade Balance grew higher than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.03%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced, and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +3.03%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.26%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.632. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved out of Extreme Fear and into the middle of the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 97.72. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps advanced today. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +1.05% as it nears another new all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) increased +0.83%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.07%. Amazon (AMZN) remains the only of the largest four to trade under moving average lines, and it seems it will take some time to meet up with the averages after last week's gap-down on earnings. Amazon gained +0.63% today. Novo Nordisk (NVO) led the mega-cap list again today. The relatively new mega-cap gained nearly 12% this week. Also at the top of the mega-cap list are Salesforce.com (CRM), Walt Disney (DIS), and Bank of America (BAC). The list is mostly gainers today. The worst performers were United Health (UNH), Alibaba (BABA), Oracle (ORCL), and Pfizer (PFE). Datadog (DDOG) had a massive gain of +15.26% on a great earnings report today. Penn National Gaming (PENN) also pleased investors, gaining +9.09%. Square (SQ) continues the momentum from a recent acquisition announcement, gaining +5.78% today. MongoDB (MDB) rounds out the top four in the daily update growth list. The bottom of the list is quite painful. Fastly (FSLY) and Lemonade (LMND) declined more than 10%, and Fiverr (FVRR) declined 24% on disappointing guidance during earnings calls. Robinhood (HOOD) was at the bottom of the list with a -27.59% reversal from yesterday's huge gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data will be available on Friday morning, including Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate. Interesting earnings reports for Friday include DraftKings (DKNG) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT). There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new record today and closed near the high. The one-day trend line leads to a +0.36% gain for tomorrow.. The five-day trend line and trend-line from the 7/19 low point to a flat day of no gain or loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After the jobless report came in better than expected, investors turned back to small-cap growth and value stocks today. If employment data on Friday continues to show a better outlook for the economic recovery, expect additional gains in these stocks that tend to respond to the data. Based on the candle, there is an expectation for higher tomorrow. However, the index has moved sideways or lower on most new record closes. So I'll set my expectation for Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/4Summary: Only two sectors advanced today in a small gain for the Nasdaq while other major indexes took a step backward. Employment data disappointed investors already worried about the impact of the resurgence in the COVID pandemic, while the Fed's Clarida signaled possibly earlier tapering and interest rate hikes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 4, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume higher, Closing range: 59%, Body: 43% Good: Higher high/low, good closing range Bad: Dip after intra-day high, low a/d ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Over half green body, but in the lower part of the candle, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.54, nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.46%), DJI (-0.92%), RUT (-1.23%), VIX (-0.28%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.28%) and Technology (XLK +0.20%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -1.36%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Only two sectors advanced today in a small gain for the Nasdaq while other major indexes took a step backward. Employment data disappointed investors already worried about the impact of the resurgence in the COVID pandemic, while the Fed's Clarida signaled possibly earlier tapering and interest rate hikes. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.13%, but nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The green body covers over half the candle, sitting near the bottom under a longer upper wick. The closing range of 59% is not bad but comes after a pullback from the intraday high on a worsening outlook. Volume was higher than the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.46% after a record close the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.92%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.23%. The VIX volatility index declined -0.28%. Communications (XLC +0.28%) and Technology (XLK +0.20%) were the only two sectors ending the day with gains. Industrials (XLI -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -1.36%) were the worst-performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators ADP Nonfarm Employment data for July grew only half the amount expected, raising concerns with investors. However, Services and Non-Manufacturing PMI data came in higher than expected. Crude Oil Inventories showed less than expected demand for oil. The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.23%. The US 30y Treasury yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined, and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.56%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +9.34%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.635. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.37%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.34%. Apple (AAPL) fell -0.28%. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.21%. Only Amazon is trading below key moving average lines. Novo Nordisk (NVO), Ely Lilly (LLY), Nvidia (NVDA), and Facebook (FB) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day, all advancing over 2%. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Toyota Motor (TM ), Pepsico (PEP), and Coca-Cola (KO) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Robin Hood (HOOD) became the latest meme stock with investors pouring into the recent IPO. The stock gained 50% today. Paycom (PAYC) gained over 10%. Zoom video (ZM) and Etsy (ETSY) fill out the top four in the daily update growth list, with over 6% gains each. Most stocks in the list gained today. The biggest losers were Ehang Holding (EH), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Fastly (FSLY), and Snowflake (SNOW). Roku (ROKU), Lemonade (LMND), Etsy (ETSY), and Fastly (FSLY) all disappointed investors in earnings calls and are trading significantly lower in after hours. Those earnings reports are a sour note in a relatively positive earnings season and may impact sentiment tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims gets an update on Thursday. Let's hope the data reverses today's reaction from July's payroll data. We will also get new Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance data. Novo Nordisk (NVO), Moderna (MRNS), Square (SQ), MercadoLibre (MELI), Cloudflare (NET), DataDog (DDOG), Zillow (Z), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Zynga (ZNGA), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), and Redfin (RDFN) report earnings. Many of these and others not listed had tremendous growth over the past year, and investors will be watching the year-over-year comparisons closely to see if growth continues at the same or similar pace. There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq made a small gain today but did not test any critical support or resistance levels. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +0.59% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend line leads to a +0.38% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.35% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Everything was looking good for growth stocks as we continue through an earnings season that is largely positive. However, Investor sentiment may be changing quite a bit after today's economic data and several disappointing earnings reports among growth favorites. Based on the longer upper wick and low advance/decline ratio signaling a weak gain among heavy selling, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/3Summary: Investors shrugged off worries of the Coronavirus Delta variant and turned bullish on a robust earnings week. After a morning dip, indexes moved higher, with the S&P 500 getting another record close. Apple and Health stocks led the way. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 3, 2021 Facts: ++0.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 26% Good: High closing range, long lower wick as bulls come in after morning selling Bad: Lower low, no support at 14,650 Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Small green body above a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.67, three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.80%), RUT (+0.36%), VIX (-7.40%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.71%) and Health (XLV +1.39%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.41%) and Communications (XLC -0.45%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shrugged off worries of the Coronavirus Delta variant and turned bullish on a robust earnings week. After a morning dip, indexes moved higher, with the S&P 500 getting another record close. Apple and Health stocks led the way. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.55% after testing its 21d EMA in the opening hour. The candle has a long lower wick from the dip, but the index rallied the rest of the day to end with a 99% closing range above a small green body. The candlestick's pattern is a hanging man within an uptrend. Despite the afternoon rally, there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The hanging man and low A/D show the sellers are present in the market even as the indexes rose. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 0.82% to close at another record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.80%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.36%. The VIX volatility index declined -7.40%. Energy (XLE +1.71%) and Health (XLV +1.39%) were top gainers for the day. Communications (XLC -0.45%) was the only losing sector for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Factory Orders data came in higher than expected, counter to the Manufacturing data that showed a slowdown. The US Dollar (DXY) was about flat for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) advanced, and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced. Aluminum (ALI1!) had its first decline after several days of advance. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.52%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined 03.84%, its first significant decline in two weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.610. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved out of Extreme Fear, back into the Fear level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, with Apple (AAPL) leading the way with a +1.26% gain. Amazon (AMZN) bounce off 3300 to end the day with a +1.04% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.81%. Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed by +0.58%. Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Oracle (ORCL), and Toyota Motor (TM ) were the top gaining mega-caps today. At the bottom of the list were Visa (V), Alibaba (BABA), Walt Disney (DIS), and Mastercard (MA). Solar Edge (SEDG) blew away the competition in the daily update growth list with a +16.33%. The other top growth stocks in the list were Snowflake (SNOW), Enphase (ENPH), and Pinterest (PINS). The Chinese stocks in the list found themselves at the bottom again, with NIO (NIO), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR), and Ehang Holding (EH) losing between -2.8% and -5.8%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic indicators will get updates tomorrow. Mortgage data will be available early in the morning. Then Nonfarm Employment Change data will give an update on the labor market. Purchase Manager Index data for Services will show growth for the services sector, while Non-Manufacturing purchasing manager index data will provide a broader look at economic activity. Finally, Crude Oil Inventories get an update later in the morning. Toyota Motor (TM ), Sony (SONY), CVS (CVS), Booking (BKNG), General Motors (GM), Uber (UBER), Roku (ROKU), Allstate (ALL), Etsy (ETSY), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Fastly (FSLY), Lemonade (LMND), and DermTech (DMTK) are some of the exciting earnings reports for Wednesday. There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq tested the 21d exponential moving average during the morning dip. In that area, bulls came in to buy the index back up and close with a gain. The one-day trend line leads to a +0.98% gain for tomorrow. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +0.64% advance. The five-day trend line points to a -0.58% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Even the worsening COVID situation doesn't seem to dampen the spirits of investors this week. Much of the impact will come from how the government responds to the pandemic vs. the pandemic itself. After 18 months of dealing with the pandemic, the public has figured out how to continue operating, and the economy keeps going. The hanging man candlestick in an uptrend is a signal of a growing number of sellers. The expectation for tomorrow is sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/2Summary: Despite being at a historically high level, Manufacturing activity data was lower than the previous month and lower than expectations. The result was a failed morning rally that took indexes higher before selling off in the afternoon. The only positive holding back more selling was the progress of the Infrastructure bill in congress. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 2, 2021 Facts: +0.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 15%, Body: 74% Good: Higher high, higher low, support at 14,650 area Bad: Could not hold morning highs, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.79, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.18%), DJI (-0.28%), RUT (-0.48%), VIX (+6.80%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.77%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.29%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.75%) and Materials (XLB -1.21%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Despite being at a historically high level, Manufacturing activity data was lower than the previous month and lower than expectations. The result was a failed morning rally that took indexes higher before selling off in the afternoon. The only positive holding back more selling was the progress of the Infrastructure bill in congress. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.06% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The candle is mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks, reflecting the full day of selling after the markets opened higher in the morning. The closing range of 15% is below a 74% red body. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The other major indexes all lost for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) started the day outperforming but sold off more than the other indexes and ended with a -0.48% loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.28%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.18%. The VIX volatility index advanced +6.80%. Utilities (XLU +0.77%) led the sector list, signaling caution among investors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.29%)was the second-best sector for the day as Personal spending data on Friday did come in higher than expected. Energy (XLE -0.75%) and Materials (XLB -1.21%) were at the bottom of today's sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators For July, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 59.5 vs. the previous month at 60.6 and was lower than the forecasted 60.9 level. The result is that the US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.02%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) declined sharply while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) was flat. Copper (COPPER1!) declined. Aluminum (ALI1!) continued to advance. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0.44%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.55%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.618. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is back in Extreme Fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) advanced slightly, gaining +0.12%, but is still well below last week's high and the moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) also had a small gain of +0.10%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) declined -0.03% and -0.23%, respectively. Tesla (TSLA), Pfizer (PFE), Alibaba (BABA), and Nvidia (NVDA) were the top mega-caps for today. Mastercard (MA), Visa (V), and PayPal (PYPL) were the bottom three mega-caps, with the former two losing more than -2.5% each as investors see fierce competition from Square (SQ) with the acquisition of Afterpay. Square (SQ) topped the daily update growth list with a 10% gain. The other three at the top of the list were Chinese stocks UP Fintech (TIGR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and Ehang Holding (EH). PayPal (PYPL), Pinterest (PINS), Enphase (ENPH), and Fiverr (FVRR) were the worst performers in the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Factory Orders data will be available in the morning, with the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data coming after the market close. Alibaba (BABA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Amgen (AMGN), Fidelity (FIS), Marriott (MAR), Match Group (MTCH), Occidental (OXY), Ringcentral (RNG), LYFT (LYFT), Hyatt (H), and Skillz (SKLZ) are some of the many earnings reports for Tuesday. There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance There seems to be support forming around 14,650-14,700. I'll watch this level over the next few days to see if it holds. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +1.37% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a +0.60% gain. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.13% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up As the Delta variant of COVID continues to force new measures worldwide to contain the virus, investors are nervous about the impact on the economic recovery. Even though manufacturing activity is historically high (the ISM index today is higher than it ever was in 2019 and through the start of the pandemic), investors are still seeing the slowing activity and looking for what to trade next. We did get a higher high and a higher low, but given the primarily red day after a morning high and failed rally, the expectation is for sideways tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/30Summary: A disappointing earnings report from Amazon weighed down major indexes, but inflation data came in less than expected, helping give the market a boost in the morning. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 30, 2021 Facts: -0.71%, Volume lower, Closing range: 50%, Body: 50% Good: Bounce off 21d EMA and did not revisit low Bad: Could not hold intraday high from morning rally Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Half green body at the bottom of the candle, no lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.45, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (-0.42%), RUT (-0.62%), VIX (+2.94%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.32%) at the top. Energy (XLE -1.59%( and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.06%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A disappointing earnings report from Amazon weighed down major indexes, but inflation data came in less than expected, helping give the market a boost in the morning. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.71% loss to end the week. Volume was lower and declining every day this week since Monday's all-time high in the index. The 50% green body sits at the bottom of the candle with no lower wick. The upper wick formed in the morning rally, but the index could not hold onto the intraday high. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.54%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.42%. The Russell 2000 (RUT), which outperformed this week, declined -0.62% in Friday's session. The VIX volatility index advanced +2.94%. Materials (XLB +0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.32%) were top sectors for the day. Energy (XLE -1.59%( and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.06%) were the worst-performing, with Amazon pulling down the latter. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Core PCE Price Index data came in less than expected, while Personal Income and Personal Spending data were higher than expected. Michigan Consumer Sentiment was higher, and Inflation Expectations was lower. Those all should help ease some fears around inflation and an overheated economy. The result is that the US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.23%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined. Aluminum (ALI1!) continued to advance for another day. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +5.49%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.37%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.668. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved up to 78.39. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to advance today, gaining +0.15%. Amazon (AMZN) gapped down and ended the day well below its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, declining -7.56%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.55%. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.77%. Proctor & Gamble (PG), Tesla (TSLA), Comcast (CMCSA), and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) were the top-performing mega-caps. AbbView (ABBV), Exxon Mobil (XOM), PayPal (PYPL), and Amazon were the worst-performing. Only a handful of the daily update growth stocks gained for the day. NIO (NIO), Enphase (ENPH), Ehang Holding (EH), and Tesla (TSLA) were the top performers in the list. Pinterest (PINS) lost over 18%, while Roku (ROKU), Etsy (ETSY), and Upwork (UPWK) fill out the rest of the bottom four. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The ISM will release manufacturing purchasing managers index data on Monday. HSBC (HSBC), Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFG), Heineken (HEINY), and Zoominfo (ZI) are a few of the earnings reports for Monday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq pulled back but remained above the 21d EMA today. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +1.51% gain for Monday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.18% gain. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.01% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After several days of reasonably good earnings reports, the Amazon and Pinterest reports were a bit of a shocker. Thankfully inflation data and consumer sentiment data did not make things worse, and the indexes held support levels. Based on the long upper shadow two days in a row, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower on Monday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/29Summary: GDP growth was less than expected this morning while employment data confirmed the Fed's message that there is still more work to do in the economic recovery. That wasn't necessarily a bad thing for equities, as it means economic support will continue for some time. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 29, 2021 Facts: +0.11%, Volume lower, Closing range: 23%, Body: 10% Good: Higher high and higher low, A/D ratio Bad: Long upper wick relative to body as early gains faded Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin body at the bottom of candle with long upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.41, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.44%), RUT (+0.68%), VIX (-3.22%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.13%) and Materials (XLB +1.10%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) and Communications (XLC -1.08%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview GDP growth was less than expected this morning while employment data confirmed the Fed's message that there is still more work to do in the economic recovery. That wasn't necessarily a bad thing for equities, as it means economic support will continue for some time. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.11% but gave back intra-day gains, creating a long upper wick over a thin green body. Volume was lower for the day. The closing range of 23% and 10% green body at the bottom of the candle represents a failed attempt to rally today, but the A/D ratio shows some broader gains under the surface. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed again today with a +0.68% gain, closing above its 21d exponential moving average line for the first time in July. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.42%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.44%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.22%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.13%), Materials (XLB +1.10%), and Financials (XLF +1.10%) topped the sector list. Only two sectors declined today, Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) and Communications (XLC -1.08%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims came in higher than expected. GDP data came in lower than expected, while the GDP Price Index data was higher than expected. Pending Home Sales data was lower than expected. The result is that the US Dollar (DXY) rally is reversing, with another -0.42% decline today. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. The continued support for the economy bodes well for businesses borrowing money to enable growth and employ more people. Outside equities, High Yield (Junk) Bonds will give some of the best returns for investors. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced significantly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced significantly. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0.23%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.60%. (Time of writing) These are sideways to lower moves, given the drop in the USD. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.549. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but is still near Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved up to 78.39. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) advanced while Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined. Apple gained +1.80% while Microsoft rose +0.10%. Alphabet declined -0.23%, and Amazon declined -0.84%. Amazon beat expectations but disappointed investors on their outlook. The stock fell more than 7% in after-hours trading. Tesla (TSL), Danaher Corporation (DHR), Bank of America (BAC), and Mastercard (MA) topped the mega-cap list today. At the bottom of the list are PayPal (PYPL), Facebook (FB), Pfizer (PFE), and Netflix (NFLX). Tesla (TSLA), D.R. Horton (DHI), Zoom Video (ZM), and Solar Edge (SEDG) topped the daily update growth list, with the first three gaining more than 4%. PayPal (PYPL), Pinterest (PINS), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and UP Fintech (TIGR) were at the bottom of the list, all losing more than 5%. Pinterest lost another 18% in after-hours trading after disappointing user growth in their earnings report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead New inflation data becomes available on Friday with the updated PCE Price index data for June. Additional Employment Data and Consumer Sentiment data becomes available as well. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Procter & Gamble (PG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq attempted a rally today that reversed, but the index could hold onto a small gain. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +1.11% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.09% decline. The five-day trend line points to a -0.26% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The economic data today confirmed much of what the Fed said yesterday. That there is more work to do in the recovery before they begin to taper any economic support. The reaction was muted in the indexes and more stocks advanced than declined. The long upper wick and thin body at the bottom of the candle present a bearish outlook for tomorrow. The expectation is for sideways or lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/28Summary: Investors survived another Fed meeting with stocks gaining after the Fed left monetary policy untouched but confirmed the economy is still on track and inflation appears transitory. Small caps and growth stocks soared while only a few of the SPDR sectors registered gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 28, 2021 Facts: +0.70%, Volume lower, Closing range: 76%, Body: 31% Good: Rally in morning and afternoon to close with gain, A/D ratio above 1.0 Bad: Lower high, lower volume, dip at end of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, slightly longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 2.0, two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (+1.51%), VIX (-5.43%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.91%) and Communications (XLC +0.78%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.76%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.88%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors survived another Fed meeting with stocks gaining after the Fed left monetary policy untouched but confirmed the economy is still on track and inflation appears transitory. Small caps and growth stocks soared while only a few of the SPDR sectors registered gains. The Nasdaq dipped at open but recovered quickly and ended the day with a +0.70% gain. Volume was lower for the day, but the 76% closing range and 31% green body are positive outcomes on an Inside day (lower high, higher low). The lower wick is slightly longer than the upper wick. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes with a +1.51% gain but still closing below its 21d exponential moving average line. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.02% and registered a spinning top candle, signaling indecision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.36% with a bearish outside day. The VIX volatility index declined -5.43%. Only four sectors finished the day with gains. Energy (XLE +0.91%) and Communications (XLC +0.78%) were the top sectors. Alphabet (GOOGL) boosted the Communications sector after solid earnings results. Utilities (XLU -0.76%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.88%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Crude Oil Inventories showed much higher demand than expected. The two-day Fed meeting ended without much policy change from the group. The Fed emphasized that the economy is on track for recovery and that inflation still appears to be from transitory factors. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.20%. The index fell after the market open, recovered some losses, and declined sharply after the Fed statements. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +1.61%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) remained flat after giving back some intraday gains. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.620. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is nearly in the Extreme Fear area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Three of the four largest mega-caps released earnings yesterday. The reports were all positive, but reactions mixed. Alphabet (GOOGL) registered a +3.18% gain for the day after gapping up at the open. Microsoft (MSFT) had an initial negative reaction in after-hours trading, then opened up with positive gains but turned in a -0.11% decline by the end of the day. Apple (AAPL) gapped down at the open. After a volatile session, the company closed the day with a -1.21% gain. Amazon (AMZN), which will report earnings on Thursday, had an +0.11% gain today. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list as the Chinese stocks rebounded from recent losses. Also at the top of the list are Pfizer (PFE), Alphabet, and Novo Nordisk (NVO). MasterCard (MA), Visa (V), Procter & Gamble (PG), and United Health (UNH) were at the bottom of the list. Chinese stocks topped the gains in the daily update growth list. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) gained over 10%, while Ehang Holdings (EH) and JD.com (JD) rose +9.7% and +8.5%. There was only one losing stock, D.R. Horton (DHI), on my list. The other stocks at the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), ServiceNow (NOW), and RH (RH), but all had small gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead GDP data for Q2 will publish on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will also get an update. Amazon.com (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), AstraZeneca (AZN), Twilio (TWLO), Baidu (BIDU), Pinterest (PINS), Fortinet (FTNT), DexCom (DXCM), Yum! Brands (YUM), and Expedia (EXPE) are a few earnings reports that stand out among another huge list. There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq traded inside yesterday's range which could be a continuation pattern in a downtrend from Monday's high. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +1.10% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line leads to a +0.48% gain. The five-day trend line points to a +0.48% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up At market open, we did get a continuation from yesterday's afternoon bounce off the 14,500 area. The rally softened late in the morning as investors anticipated statements from the Fed. Once that was clear, we got another short rally before a dip at the close. Earnings reports continue to get mixed reactions from investors in today's after-hours trading. Most earnings reports are smashing the comparable year-over-year numbers. However, investors now have to consider what the next two quarters will look like since the opposite might occur after last year's tremendous growth in the second half. Given the inside day and lower volume, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/27Summary: Earnings reports releasing this week have been very positive, but investors are already looking beyond the reports to expectations for the second half of the year. With mounting fears around the new Delta variant of COVID and potential changes in monetary policy by the Fed, the major indexes retreated today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 27, 2021 Facts: -1.21%, Volume lower, Closing range: 51%, Body: 48% Good: Lower volume on pullback, longer lower wick from bounce at 14,500 support. Bad: Lower high, lower low, dip below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Half red body above half lower wick, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.28, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.47%), DJI (-0.24%), RUT (-1.13%), VIX (+10.01%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.72%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.80%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.01%) and Communications (-1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Earnings reports releasing this week have been very positive, but investors are already looking beyond the reports to expectations for the second half of the year. With mounting fears around the new Delta variant of COVID and potential changes in monetary policy by the Fed, the major indexes retreated today. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.21% loss in a mostly selling session before a bounce at the 14,500 support level. Volume was lower than the previous day. The bounce brought the index back up to the middle of the candle for a 51% closing range. The 48% red body is in the upper half of the candle, over a long lower wick. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -1.13%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) retreated -0.24%. The VIX volatility index rose +10.01%. Utilities (XLU +1.72%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.80%) were the top two sectors, with the other defensive sectors filling out the top four. Growth sectors were at the bottom of the sector list, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.01%) and Communications (-1.19%) having the most considerable losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Month over month Durable Goods Orders came in much lower than expected. The market didn't seem to react to the data immediately, but it may have played into the morning selling. Consumer Confidence numbers came in higher than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.17%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined for a second day, while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.77%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +1.44%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.869. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear area, moved almost back to Extreme Fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.98%, touching its 21d exponential moving average line before recovering some losses. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.59%. Apple (AAPL) closed down -1.49%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell back -0.87%. Verizon (VZ), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), Pfizer (PFE), and Pepsico (PEP) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day. Alibaba (BABA) bottomed the list again. Intel (INTC), PayPal (PYPL), and Alphabet (GOOG) made up the rest of the bottom four. Only three stocks in the daily update growth list gained today. Fiverr (FVRR), D.R. Horton (DHI), and MongoDB (MDB) were the gainers. The biggest losers were all Chinese stocks. NIO (NIO), Ehang Holdings (EH), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Goods Trade Balance data, Retail Inventories, and Crude Oil Inventories will be available on Wednesday. Following two days of meetings, the Fed will make a statement in the afternoon and announce any Interest Rate change (expected to be none). The tone of the message and press conference will have an impact on investor sentiment. Earnings reports on Wednesday include Facebook (FB), PayPal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Shopify (SHOP), McDonald's (MCD), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boeing (BA), ADP (ADP), Ford (F), Spotify (SPOT), and ServiceNow (NOW). There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d exponential moving average line before getting support at 14,500 and bouncing back above the key moving average line. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +1.79% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a +0.79% gain. The one-day trend line leads to a further -1.21% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's tough to see what was on investors' minds today. Perhaps they see all the great earnings reports as a top, and from here, the performance of these companies will pull back a bit. Maybe it's simply buying the rumor, selling the news. Or it could be that investors were getting defensive against any possible disappointment from the big tech earnings. For whatever reason, we got a negative expectation breaker for today. It's possible for the afternoon dip buying to continue into tomorrow for more gains. However, after several days of gains last week and the market at all-time highs yesterday, another day or two of pullback is possible. Expectation is for sideways or lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/26Summary: Small caps had a volatile start to the week, gaining on Monday morning and losing those gains by mid-day. Still, the gains were enough for all the major indices to advance today as investors look forward to a massive earnings week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, July 26, 2021 Facts: +0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 69%, Body: 27% Good: Slight gain on higher volume, healthy pause Bad: A/D low but not surprising with sideways move Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body in the middle of a short candle Advanced/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.24%), DJI (+0.24%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (+2.33%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.47%) and Materials (XLB +0.84%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -0.05%) and Health (XLV -0.65%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small caps had a volatile start to the week, gaining on Monday morning and losing those gains by mid-day. Still, the gains were enough for all the major indices to advance today as investors look forward to a massive earnings week. The Nasdaq closed the day with a small +0.03% gain. It traded up and down throughout the day but stayed within a tight range. Volume was higher for the day. A thin green body sits in the middle of the short candle, with equal upper and lower wicks. The closing range was 69%. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.33%. The small-cap index was up 1% in the morning before being rejected at its 21d exponential moving average. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) both rose +0.24%. The VIX volatility index advanced +2.33%. Energy (XLE +2.47%) and Materials (XLB +0.84%) led the sector list today. The Materials sector, along with metal commodities, are being boosted by higher demand in manufacturing. Industrials (XLI -0.05%) and Health (XLV -0.65%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators New Home Sales for June were lower than expected. That may be a welcome relief for investors worried about the overheated sector and the risk exposure it brings to the economy. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.30%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields advanced while the 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined slightly. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) continued its advance after a massive move up on Friday. Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) ended the day with a +6.14% advance but was up 15% intra-day after Amazon posted a crypto-related job opening. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.51% for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.640. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.18% for the day, leading the largest four mega-caps. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.77%. Apple (AAPL) rose +0.29%. Microsoft (MSFT) was the only of the four with a loss, declining -0.21%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) lead the mega-caps today, with Intel (INTC), Tesla (TSLA), and Walt Disney (DIS) filling out the top four. At the bottom of the list was Alibaba (BABA), with a -7.15% loss as Chinese stocks continue to get beaten down. Novo Nordisk (NVO), Nvidia (NVDA), and Abbot Labs (ABT) were also at the bottom of the list. At the top of the daily update growth list were Zoom (ZM), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Lemonade (LMND), and Tesla (TSLA). At the bottom of the list were Chinese stocks JD.com (JD), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Alibaba (BABA), and Twitter (TWTR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Durable Goods Orders data made available before the market opens on Tuesday indicates the level of economic activity. Analysts expect June to be higher than May after the May number came in lower than expected. CB Consumer Confidence for July will also be available in the morning after the market opens. An update to API Weekly Crude Oil Stock arrives after the market closes. Three of the largest companies in the world report earnings on Tuesday. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) are all expected to report strong year-over-year growth, but investors will be looking to guidance for future quarters. Visa (V), United Parcel Service (UPS), Starbucks (SBUX), Raytheon (RTX), 3m (MMM), AMD (AMD), General Electric (GE), Southern Copper (SCCO), Enphase (ENPH), Teladoc (TDOC), and Logitech (LOGI) are some of the other interesting companies also reporting on Tuesday. There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved sideways today, setting a new all-time high and record close. The five-day trend line points to a +1.45% gain for tomorrow. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +1.09% gain. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a -0.03% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a wild ride for small-caps in the morning. Investors bought up small-caps in the early morning, given the supportive economic conditions for the segment. But after the market opened, the US dollar dropped sharply, and that may have spooked investors. As the dollar stabilized and regained some of the initial loss, so did small-caps and the Russell 2000 ended the day outperforming the other indices. The news will be dominated by earnings reports and the Fed meeting this week. Three of the largest companies report tomorrow. The Fed will meet and release a statement on monetary policy on Wednesday. The expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/23Summary: A rally in Social media stocks helped send the major indexes to new all-time highs. The optimism spread to other big tech stocks, giving the Nasdaq a high volume advance but leaving the advance/decline ratio below 1.0. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 23, 2021 Facts: +1.04%, Volume higher, Closing range: 94%, Body: 57% Good: High closing range on higher volume Bad: A/D still below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up at open after several green days, mostly green body in upper half of candle Advanced/Decline: 0.69, About three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (+1.01%), DJI (+0.68%), RUT (+0.46%), VIX (-2.77%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +2.48%) and Utilities (XLU +1.28%) at the top. Financials (XLF +0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.37%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A rally in Social media stocks helped send the major indexes to new all-time highs. The optimism spread to other big tech stocks, giving the Nasdaq a high volume advance but leaving the advance/decline ratio below 1.0. The Nasdaq finished with a +1.04% gain on higher volume to reach a new record close. The green candle caps a week of all green candles compared to the previous week's all red candles. Today's candle had a 57% green body in the upper half of the candle. The 94% closing range represents a day of bullish buying after a quick dip in the morning created the lower wick. There were almost three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) finished with record closes, advancing +1.01% and +0.68%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was a bit more volatile this week but ended Friday with a +0.46% gain for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -2.77%. Communications (XLC +2.48%) outperformed the other sectors thanks to a greater-than 20% advance by SNAP after surprising investors with robust advertising revenue. Utilities (XLU +1.28%) was the second sector, signaling investors nervousness as the indexes reach new tops. Financials (XLF +0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.37%) were the bottom two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data was stronger than expected, while Services PMI was weaker than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.08% for the day. The US 30y Treasury Bond yield moved up slightly while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields declined somewhat. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) made a massive move with a +3.37% advance. That's very bullish for the global economy. Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.28%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +5.10%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.702. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear area, heading toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 71.04 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) led the mega-caps with a +3.58% gain influenced by positive earnings reports from SNAP and Twitter that showed solid growth in the advertising business. The company joined Microsoft in reaching new all-time highs this week. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.23%, adding to its record close yesterday. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.20%. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.51%. Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL) led the mega-cap list. Shopify (SHOP) and Mastercard (MA) were third and fourth. Each had gains greater than 3%, while Facebook rose more than 5%. Intel (INTC) lost -5.29%, ending the day at the bottom of the list. The other biggest losers for the day were Alibaba (BABA), Oracle (ORCL), and Tesla (TSLA). Communications stocks SNAP (SNAP), Roku (ROKU), Pinterest (PINS), and Facebook (FB) dominated the top of the daily update growth list. There were still quite a few losers in the growth list, with the Chinese stocks suffering from negative news again. FUTU Holding (FUTU), Ehang Holdings (EH), and UP Fintech (TIGER) were the bottom three. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead New Home Sales data will be available on Monday morning after the market opens. Tesla (TSLA) on Monday will kick off a full week of big tech earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is closed at all-time highs today. I removed the trend-line from the 7/13 high since we have a new high now. The five-day trend line will turn into a longer-term trend-line as I start tracking the latest rally. The five-day trend line points to a +1.06% gain for Friday. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.98% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up What a difference a week makes. It seemed last week that we were heading to correction territory and Monday appeared to confirm that direction. Then support was found at the 14,200 area, and a new rally begins. Five green candles in a row to complete a bullish outside week. Given the bullishness of today, the expectation is for sideways or higher on Monday. Investors will be looking for a pullback and may find any reason to get defensive. However, investors are rewarding positive earnings reports this quarter, and nothing indicates that we won't continue to get positive reports from big tech next week. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/22Summary: Rising jobless claims surprised the market this morning, sending cyclical sectors lower and causing a reversal in small caps after several days of gains. Investors rotated back into growth stocks and big tech, which are more resilient to the swings in the economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 22, 2021 Facts: +0.36%, Volume lower, Closing range: 87%, Body: 42% Good: High closing range with higher high and higher low Bad: Low volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick, a medium size green body in upper half Advanced/Decline: 0.32, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.20%), DJI (+0.07%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (-1.23%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.74%) and Health (XLV +0.74%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Rising jobless claims surprised the market this morning, sending cyclical sectors lower and causing a reversal in small caps after several days of gains. Investors rotated back into growth stocks and big tech, which are more resilient to the swings in the economy. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.36% on lower volume than the previous day. The day ended with an 87% closing range for the index. A 45% body sits in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed in the morning as investors absorbed the economic news. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.55%, losing most of the gains from the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.20%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained only +0.07%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.23%. Technology (XLK +0.74%) led the sector list, helped along by big tech. Health (XLV +0.74%) had a nearly equivalent gain to also land at the top. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -1.12%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Both Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected. The numbers are still higher than pre-pandemic levels, so an unexpected uptrend is alarming to analysts. Existing Home Sales data came in lower than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.06% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined slightly today. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced today. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0,35%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.90%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.714. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear (instead of Extreme Fear), heading toward Neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps all gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) led the group with a +1.68% advance and a new all-time high, thanks to a price target upgrade from Citi. Amazon (AMZN) climbed by +1.47%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.96%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.68%. All four are trading above key moving average lines. Danaher Corporation (DHR), Salesforce.com (CRM), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Adobe (ADBE) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day. Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Despite the focus on growth stocks today, the daily update list is about half gainers and half losers. The top of the list includes CloudFlare (NET), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), and Etsy (ETSY). At the bottom of the list are Chinese stocks FUTU Holding (FUTU), Ehang Holding (EH), and UP Fintech (TIGR), all with losses greater than 7%. SNAP (SNAP) is up over 16% in after-hours trading after an earnings beat and doubling revenue from a year earlier. Twitter (TWTR) was up nearly 5%, showing better than expected growth in its earnings release. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager indexes released on Friday will be another indicator of economic activity and the speed of the recovery. Friday's earning reports include Honeywell (HON), American Express (AXP), and Schlumberger (SLB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is making a slow but steady climb back to all-time highs. The five-day trend line points to a +0.29% gain for Friday. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.14% gain. The trend line from the 7/13 high points to a -1.39% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The unexpected economic data that arrived this morning took some steam out of the broader rally while rotating investment back into big tech and a focused list of growth stocks. Give the lower volume and the low advance/decline ratio, the gains today were rather weak. Therefore, the expectation for tomorrow will be sideways or lower. One might also expect investors to be nervous heading into the weekend, considering the unknowns around the pandemic and economic recovery. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/21Summary: Stocks continued to rebound from last week's dip, with small caps leading the march upward, keeping the advance/decline ratio above 2.0 for a second day. Investors are looking more optimistic about the economic recovery among solid earnings reports from market leaders. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 21, 2021 Facts: +0.92%, Volume lower, Closing range: 99%, Body: 92% Good: Close at high of day, bullish green body, A/D ratio Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, very tiny lower wick, mostly green body Advanced/Decline: 2.36, almost five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.83%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-9.23%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Financials (XLF +1.72%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) and Utilities (XLU -1.10%). were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks continued to rebound from last week's dip, with small caps leading the march upward, keeping the advance/decline ratio above 2.0 for a second day. Investors are looking more optimistic about the economic recovery among solid earnings reports from market leaders. The Nasdaq closed the day a +0.92%. Volume was lower, but buyers dominated the entire, with almost five advancing stocks for every declining stock. The candle has no upper wick because of the 99% closing range, and the green body covers 92% of the candle. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led for a second day, as the US Dollar remains in an uptrend and makes undervalued small caps more attractive. The RUT closed with a +1.81% gain today. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.82%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.83%. The VIX volatility index declined -9.23%. Energy (XLE +3.49) jumped to the top of the sector list as investors became more optimistic about the recovery. Financials (XLF) was the second-best sector, thanks to rising Treasury yields. At the bottom of the sector list are Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) and Utilities (XLU -1.10%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Crude Oil Inventories came in higher than expected, but that did not dampen investors' outlook for oil. The 20y Treasury auction was weak, helping Treasury Yields to rise. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.20% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose today. The 20y auction was weak, helping long-term yields to increase further. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices continue to bounce back from Monday's dip. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced, and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced sharply. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Crypto is back in vogue after another mention from Elon Musk. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +7.70%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +10.82%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.619. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear (instead of Extreme Fear), heading toward Neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) declined -0.51% after topping the mega-cap list yesterday. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.06%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.74%. Amazon (AMZN) rose +0.34%. All four closed above their 21d exponential moving average line. ASML Holding (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobile (XOM), and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top mega-caps for the day. Netflix (NFLX) was the worst-performing mega-cap today after subscriber growth stalled and the company missed earnings estimates. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple were also at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Growth stocks had another great day. At the top of the daily update list were UP Fintech (TIGR), DraftKings (DKNG), Lemonade (LMND), and NIO (NIO). The only losers in the list were Zynga (ZNGA), Tesla (TSLA), and Zoom Video (ZM). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims become available on Thursday before the market opens. After the market opens, Investors will get Existing Home Sales data for June. Intel (INTC), Abbott Labs (ABT), AT&T (T), Snap (SNAP), ABB (ABB), Twitter (TWTR), DR Horton (DHI), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Dominos Pizza (DPZ), and American Airlines (AAL) release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back toward all-time highs as seems to be putting a quick correction behind. The one-day trend line points to a +0.39% gain for Thursday. The five-day trend line ends in a -1.02% decline, which would be just above the 21d EMA. The trend line from the 7/13 high points to a -1.92% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up While fears grow about the impact of the Delta variant around the world, there is still high optimism for the US economic recovery, supported by upbeat earnings reports in the past two weeks. The combination of fear in other economies and optimism in the US economy put the US Dollar in an uptrend relative to other world currencies. As investment flows into the US Dollar, global investors need a place to put that money to use. Since Treasury yields remain low, we see investors seek out returns in equities and high-yield corporate bonds. In addition to these favorable conditions, small-cap valuations are low compared to larger-cap stocks. That's helping the Russell 2000 lead the other major indexes in gains the past two days. The expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. Keep an eye on the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/20Summary: Small caps ended several days of losing to lead stocks higher today as investors snapped out of the pandemic fears that caused Monday's selling. Investors are warming back up to small caps as the US Dollar strengthens and yields in bonds are beginning to stabilize. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 20, 2021 Facts: +1.57%, Volume higher, Closing range: 80%, Body: 59% Good: Broad gains on higher volume to move back above 21d EMA Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Bullish green body with higher low and higher high, medium size upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 2.69, more than five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.52%), DJI (+1.62%), RUT (+2.99%), VIX (-12.32%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +2.48%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.43%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small caps ended several days of losing to lead stocks higher today as investors snapped out of the pandemic fears that caused Monday's selling. Investors are warming back up to small caps as the US Dollar strengthens and yields in bonds are beginning to stabilize. The Nasdaq finished with a +1.57% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The 59% green body and 80% closing range represent a day of constant buying that ended with some profit-taking in the last few minutes before the market close. The index closed yesterday's gap down and regained the 21d exponential moving average, closing at the 14,500 support area. There were more than five advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) soared back into action with a +2.99% gain today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also gained a significant +1.62%, helped by industrials and recovery stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +1.52% gain for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -12.32%. In a reversal from yesterday, all sectors gained for the day. Industrials (XLI +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +2.48%) led the sector list. Utilities (XLU +0.43%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Building Permits data released this morning was lower than expected, but Housing Starts was higher than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.15% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield dropped. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices bounced back from a sharp decline yesterday. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices recovered some from the sharp decline on Monday. The drop on Monday was a result of OPEC's decision to increase output. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.99%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.21%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.592. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in Extreme Fear but moving back toward Neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps bounced back from yesterday's losses. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.60%, closing the gap from yesterday. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.31%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.83%. Amazon (AMZN) rose -+0.66% to close back above its 21d exponential moving average. Apple was the top-performing mega-cap for the day, followed by Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), and Tesla (TSLA). There were only a handful of mega-caps losing for the day, with Novo Nordisk (NVO), Nvidia (NVDA), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Verizon (VZ) at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks in the daily update list did very well today. Top performers included Upwork (UPWK), Peloton (PTON), Square (SQ), and SNAP (SNAP). The worst performers were Zoom (ZM), Pinterest (PINS), JD.com (JD), and Nvidia. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories are the primary economic data for Wednesday, although some may be interested in Mortgage data released before the market opens. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), ASML Holding (ASML), Coca-Cola (KO), Verizon (VZ), and Fidelity Financial (FNF) are some of the interesting reports for Wednesday. Analysts will listen closely to Coca-Cola statements around supply chain costs and whether they are transferring increased costs along to consumers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back above the 21d EMA and closed right at the 14,500 support area. If momentum carries through to tomorrow, the one-day trend line points to a +1.98% gain. The five-day trend line and trend line from the 7/13 high points to a ~1.90% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears melted away today as investors pivoted back into growth stocks and small caps. The Russell 2000 rebounded sharply with investors moving out of bonds and betting on the lower valuations of small caps compared to the mega-caps. We had a positive expectation breaker today, which is always welcome. The expectation for tomorrow is sideways or higher for tomorrow, although watch for any indication that today was just a technical bounce before moving lower. If we do move higher, the Russell 2000 is likely to outperform for the next leg up. Let's see. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/19Summary: The new Delta variant of the Coronavirus was top of mind for investors as the trading week began. Share prices of COVID vaccine-related companies soared today as it appeared governments would need to double down on vaccination efforts. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, July 19, 2021 Facts: -1.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: 29% Good: Support around 14,200, good closing range Bad: Lower on higher volume, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body in center of candle, even upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.27, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.59%), DJI (-2.09%), RUT (-1.51%), VIX (+21.96%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Health (XLV -1.05%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.80%) and Energy (XLE -3.53%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The new Delta variant of the Coronavirus was top of mind for investors as the trading week began. Share prices of COVID vaccine-related companies soared today as it appeared governments would need to double down on vaccination efforts. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.06% loss for the day on higher volume. The index found support at the 14,200 level, closing with a 71% closing range above a 29% body that is right in the middle of the candle. The lower high and lower low continues a downtrend as more than three stocks declined for every stock that advanced today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) took the biggest hit with a -2.09% loss. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.59%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.51% as it continues to slide well below recent highs. The VIX volatility index rose +21.96%. It was up over 35% intra-day. All sectors lost for the day. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Health (XLV -1.05%) led the sector list. Financials (XLF -2.80%) and Energy (XLE -3.53%) were the worst-performing. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators President Biden gave a speech today that included remarks on inflation and the strength of the economy. The market receded from earlier gains after his speech. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.13% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields dropped again. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined sharply, while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The gap between High Yield bonds and Treasury bonds widened significantly. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined sharply. Timber (Wood) continued a steep decline. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.98%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -3.90%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.898, showing investors getting more bearish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into extreme fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps had huge declines today. Apple (AAPL) gapped down and closed with a -2.69% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.88%, closing right at its 21d exponential moving average. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.67% and closed below its 21d exponential moving average. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list with a +3.41% gain after Morningstar improved its outlook for the company. Abbot Laboratories (ABT), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Netflix (NFLX) were the next three on the list. Most of the mega-caps declined for the day. The biggest losers were Mastercard (MA), Walt Disney (DIS), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and JP Morgan (JPM). The majority of the daily update growth stocks had gains today. Peloton (PTON) topped the list with a 7.14% gain, leading other stay-at-home stocks upward as fears of the Delta variant grow. Peloton also announced it would get into the video game business, turning its exercise equipment in the controller. Chewy (CHWY), Fiverr (FVRR), and DoorDash (DASH) also had significant gains today. Interestingly, stay-at-home stock Zoom Video (ZM) did not rise today, ending up at the bottom of the list with a -2.15% decline. Also at the bottom were JD.com (JD), Square (SQ), and Alibaba (BABA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be available on Tuesday morning before the market opens. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock gets released after the market closes. Netflix (NFLX), Philip Morris (PM), Chipotle (CMG), KeyCorp (KEY), Haliburton (HAL), and United Airlines (UAL) will report earnings on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support at 14,200 today. The five-day trend line and trend line from the 7/13 high points to a -1.02% to -1.17% decline for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.32% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors are spooked over the rise in the new Delta variant of the Coronavirus. Expect more volatility until the pros can better understand how dangerous the new variant is and how they can control it. Based on the downtrend and daily decline on higher volume, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/16Summary: The market gave us a painful Friday to end a painful week. Utilities were again the top sector as investors took defensive positions brought on by worries over the pandemic and a slowing economic recovery. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 16, 2021 Facts: -0.80%, Volume lower, Closing range: 7%, Body: 81% Good: Nothing Bad: Close below 21d EMA, mostly red body, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Almost entirely red body, upper wick longer than lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.32, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.75%), DJI (-0.86%), RUT (-1.24%), VIX (+8.47%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Health (XLV +0.27%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.51%) and Energy (XLE -2.83%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market gave us a painful Friday to end a painful week. Utilities were again the top sector as investors took defensive positions brought on by worries over the pandemic and a slowing economic recovery. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.8% loss. Volume was lower, but the candle was distinctly bearish with a large 81% red body and a dismal 7% closing range. The upper wick, created by an early morning rally, is slightly longer than the lower wick. The index got some support at 14,500 but quickly reversed, moving below the 21-day exponential moving average. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was again the worst major index for the day, declining -1.24%. Investors have been exiting small-cap stocks and rotating back into big tech and growth stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.86%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -0.75%. The defensive sectors were at the top of the sector list for another day and topped the weekly list. Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Health (XLV +0.27%) were the best performing sectors. Materials (XLB -1.51%) and Energy (XLE -2.83%) were the worst-performing. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Retail Sales data came in higher than expected. However, Consumer Expectations and Sentiment surprised analysts with lower numbers than expected. Analysts expected higher sentiment because the US is emerging from the pandemic and getting back to a somewhat normal life. The lower number adds some worry that the recovery is slowing among concerns over inflation and new virus variants. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.16% for the day. The US 30y Treasury Yield rose slightly, while the 10y and 2y Yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined sharply. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) also declined sharply. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.45%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.05%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.859, showing investors getting more bearish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into extreme fear. The extreme fear indicator is driven by demand for bonds (lower yields), higher put/call ratio, and weakening stock prices. Interestingly, the Junk Bond component still shows Greed. The NAAIM Money Manager exposure index rose to 93.27 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps declined again today. Amazon (AMZN) declined the most this week, adding a -1.59% drop this week and closing just above its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) fell -1.41%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had smaller losses, declining -0.10% and -0.03%, respectively. The top mega-caps for today are Oracle (ORCL), Danaher (DHR), Novo Nordisk (NVO), and Thermo Fischer (TMO). Danaher and Novo Nordisk are new to the list, topping the $200 billion market cap with gains this week as the Health sector picks up momentum. At the bottom of the list are Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Walt Disney (DIS), and ASML Holding (ASML). The daily update growth stock list continued a tough week with more losers than gainers. Sumo Digital (SUMO), DocuSign (DOCU), Fastly (FSLY), and Zoom (ZM) were at the top of the list. The -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. IBM will release earnings on Monday, which may be an early indicator of what's to come from other tech giants this earnings season. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed below the 21d exponential moving average line today. I removed the trend line from the 5/12 low and added a new trend line from the 7/13 high. The five-day trend line points to a -0.07% decline for Monday. The trend-line from the 7/13 high ends with a -0.58% loss. The one-day trend line points to a -0.76% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Gains over the past week have been focused mainly on big tech, while the rest of the market showed weakness. Investors are worried that the economic recovery is slowing, and that will hurt smaller companies the most. Big tech could only carry the indexes to a certain point and was due for a pullback. We'll have to wait for next week to see if there is a further correction or if the outlook will improve and support comes back into equities. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/15Summary: Is the big tech trade finished? Or is this just a pause before another leg up? Economic data in the morning caused volatility at the market open, which eventually went to the bears. The selling continued until the afternoon when the buyers came back into the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 15, 2021 Facts: -0.70%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 47% Good: Bounce off support at 21d EMA Bad: Another LH/LL on slightly higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.5, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.33%), DJI (+0.15%), RUT (-0.55%), VIX (+4.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.41%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.82%) and Energy (XLE -1.40%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Is the big tech trade finished? Or is this just a pause before another leg up? Economic data in the morning caused volatility at the market open, which eventually went to the bears. The selling continued until the afternoon when the buyers came back into the market. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.70% loss on slightly higher volume. The candle has a thick red body in the upper half and a long lower wick in the lower half. The closing range is 46%, and the body covers 47% of the candle. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.15%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.33%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped another -0.55%. The defensive sectors were at the top of the sector list again today. Utilities (XLU +1.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.41%) were the best performing sectors, signaling the unease over continued inflation and uncertainty in the economic recovery. Technology (XLK -0.82%) had its first decline after five days of gains. Energy (XLE -1.40%) continues to slide. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Continuing Jobless Claims continues to fall while Initial Jobless Claims was even, meeting expectations. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index blew away expectations at 43 (analysts expected 18). However, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 21.9, well below expectations. Regardless, the Philly index is still at a historically high level. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.21% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields fell significantly again while the 2y Treasury yield remained even. Bond investors listened closely to the Fed Jerome Powell's comments in front of the Senate this week. Powell is walking a line between calming fears over inflation and letting people know the Fed is willing to step in and control inflation if it proves not as transitory as expected. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) bond prices declined. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.21%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -3.57%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.764. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved more into the fear side, getting closer to extreme fear. The NAAIM Money Manager exposure index rose to 93.27. Buying the dip? -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All big four mega-caps declined today but remain well above key moving average lines. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss, declining -1.37%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.96%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -0.52%. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.45%. Danaher Corporation (DHR) barely rose above 200B market capitalization to make it into the mega-cap list. The stock tops the list today with a +1.75% gain. Alibaba (BABA), United Health (UNH), and Home Depot (HD) were the other top mega-caps for the day. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is at the bottom of the list with a -5.51% decline. The company released earnings before the market open. They increased profits from the previous year but were still slightly below analyst expectations. Also at the bottom of the mega-cap list is Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), and Eli Lilly (LLY). It has not been a good week for growth stocks. Most of the stocks in the daily update list declined for another day. Chinese stocks did well, with FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR), JD.com (JD), and Alibaba (BABA) topping the growth list. At the bottom of the list are Fiverr (FVRR), SNAP (SNAP), Enphase (ENPH), and Nvidia (NVDA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The focus will be on Retail Sales data on Friday morning. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data will be available after the market opens. Consumer Inflation Expectations will also watch closely as higher expectations tend to play out to be self-fulfilling. Friday's earning reports include Honeywell (HON) and Charles Schwab (SCHW). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Support around 14,650 did not hold. However, the index did get support at the 21d exponential moving average line. Buyers came back into the market at soon as the index hit the line. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +2.11% gain for Friday. If the index moves lower from here, I'll retire this long trend-line and replace it with a line from the 7/14 top. There is nothing to complain about a two-month uptrend. The five-day trend line leads to a 0.22% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -1.16% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There were likely several things at play in today's decline: 1. Big tech companies were due for a pullback. As the primary source of gains over the past week, the pullback of big tech impacted the major indexes. 2. The Philly manufacturing index number coming in lower than expected was a shocker for investors, despite being historically high. 3. Whether yields go up or down, volatility in the bond market is never good for equities. There's a great quote from Steve Eisman in The Big Short (book): "The equity world is like a f***ing zit compared to the bond market." Truth. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 7/14Summary: Apple gets an upgrade, and big tech rises again as the rest of the market fades around it. Producer Price Index data was higher than expected. Still, Jerome Powell continued to focus on inflation being transitory and the need for further economic support until the jobs market fully recovers. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 14, 2021 Facts: -0.22%, Volume lower, Closing range: 8%, Body: 86% Good: Nothing Bad: Thick red body, closing range, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly red body surrounded by tiny wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.28, more than three decline stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (-1.63%), VIX (-4.62%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.89%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.88%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.98%) were the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Apple gets an upgrade, and big tech rises again as the rest of the market fades around it. Producer Price Index data was higher than expected. Still, Jerome Powell continued to focus on inflation being transitory and the need for further economic support until the jobs market fully recovers. Despite the advances in big tech, the Nasdaq closed -0.22% lower. Showing the lopsided gains in the market, the QQQ ETF (weighted by cap size) was up +0.18%, while the QQQE ETF (equal-weighted) was down -0.12%. The Nasdaq candle is almost all red body (86%), with tiny upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 8%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.13%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.12%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to slide with a -1.63% loss today. The defensive sectors were at the top of the sector list today. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.89%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.88%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.87%) was third. With the help of the big mega-caps, Technology (XLK +0.74%) also ended the day with gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.44% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields declined for the day. Yields were already falling in the morning, but further declines came after Powell's testimony. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0.86%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.55%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.630. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) hit the headlines with a +2.41% advance after JP Morgan upgraded the price target for the stock. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.70%. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.54%. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.12%. Apple was the top mega-cap. Coca-Cola (KO) was a surprise second, perhaps getting some positive impact from Pepsi's stellar earnings report the previous day. MasterCard (M) and Visa (V) were third and fourth in the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list were Nvidia (NVDA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Tesla (TSLA), and Bank of America (BAC). Other than the excitement with big tech, it was another dismal day for growth stocks in the daily update list. Twitter (TWTR), Alibaba (BABA), ServiceNow (NOW), and D.R. Horton (DHI) were the only gainers in the list (it is not an exhaustive list of growth stocks). Upwork (UPWK) fell -17.38%. Since May, the stock nearly doubled, and it seems investors were taking profits as the broader market pulled back. GrowGeneration (GRWG) also dropped, declining -11.10%. Solar Edge (SEDG) and UP Fintech (TIGR) round out the bottom four in the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Two sets of data will be in focus on Thursday. First, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will show how the labor market is progressing. Second, the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data in the morning will be closely watched as investors continue to measure the speed of the economic recovery. Jerome Powell will continue testimony in front of Congress in the morning. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will release earnings on Thursday. The earnings release and commentary should show how stretched the semiconductor giant is to meet demand. The impact may be among auto manufacturers who've had to put plants on hold, waiting for chips from suppliers. Other large producers of electronics will also be impacted. In addition, UnitedHealth (UNH), Morgan Stanley (MS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Progressive (PGR), and Cintas (CTAS) will be interesting reports to watch out for on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance I marked a support area for the Nasdaq around 14,675 yesterday. The index dropped below that today, but there is still a case for support in the range of 14,645 - 14,675. If a further decline comes tomorrow, I'll remove that support area as it isn't holding. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +1.36% gain for Thursday. The five-day trend line leads to a +1.11% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.68% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up You are not alone. If you feel like your portfolio is moving lower while the indexes march higher, you've got many friends. Mega-caps are stealing the show right now and sending the major indexes higher while the market continues to weaken underneath them. The expectation will remain for a move Lower tomorrow. Some good economic news could be enough to start the rally again, but a rally will only have strength with higher volume and an advance/decline ratio above 1.0. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/13Summary: Higher than expected inflation data wasn't enough to keep the indexes from making new highs, but the rally couldn't last, and markets closed lower on Tuesday. A weaker than expected 30y bond auction sent yields higher and spooked investors in the afternoon. Big tech held onto gains, helping the Technology sector end the day in the positive. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 13, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume higher, Closing range: 12%, Body: 26% Good: Higher high, outside day that keeps index in uptrend, support at ~14,675 Bad: Long upper wick from afternoon selling, red body at bottom of candle Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, long upper wick signals a bearish reversal day Advanced/Decline: 0.21, five decline stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.35%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+5.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.41%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.03%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.20%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.30%) were the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Higher than expected inflation data wasn't enough to keep the indexes from making new highs, but the rally couldn't last, and markets closed lower on Tuesday. A weaker than expected 30y bond auction sent yields higher and spooked investors in the afternoon. Big tech held onto gains, helping the Technology sector end the day in the positive. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.38% loss on higher volume. The candle has a long upper wick that represents the morning rally which turned into an afternoon sell-off. The 26% red body sits at the bottom of the candle, creating a 12% closing range above a short lower wick. The outside day with a bearish reversal confirms the underlying weakness where five stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.31% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.35%. Small caps were hit the worst, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping -1.88%. The VIX volatility index rose +5.88%. Technology (XLK +0.41%) was the only sector to end the day with gains. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.03%) was the second-best sector in the list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.20%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.30%) were the worst-performing. Despite great earnings reports, the outlook for big banks was not spectacular, sending the Financial sector (XLF -1.08%) lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.60% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day, and the gap between long-term and short-term yields widened. The 30y auction that occurred today was weaker than expected. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined significantly from recent highs. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.51%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.94%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.598. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined today, losing -1.11%. The others ended the day with gains and record closes but could not hold onto intraday highs. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.32%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.79%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.29%. PepsiCo (PEP) topped the mega-cap list after pleasing investors with a great earnings report and raised forecast. Mastercard (MA), Alibaba (BABA), and Visa (V) make up the rest of the top four mega-caps for today. Tesla (TSLA) gave back much of yesterday's gains, ending today at the bottom of the list. Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) were also at the bottom of the list despite JP Morgan releasing a great earnings report. Watch to see how the market responds to JPM over the next few days to signal how earnings season will go for this quarter. It was not a great day for growth stocks, but there were some winners in the daily update list. Upwork (UPWK) gained over 5% and topped the list. JD.Com (JD), Alibaba (BABA) were number two and three as Chinese stocks began to climb back from the sell-off last week. Okta (OKTA) was the fourth-best growth stock on the list. The biggest losers were Etsy (ETSY), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Sumo Digital (SUMO), and Lemonade (LMND). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The producer price index data released on Wednesday will compliment Tuesday's consumer numbers. The produce prices show a leading indicator of inflation before it passes along to consumers. Jerome Powell is going before congress again to talk monetary policy. Play the suspense music here. Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C ), BlackRock (BLK) are among the big finance companies reporting earnings before the market opens. Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be a critical earnings release to watch and measure how airlines are recovering as the economy reopened further this past quarter. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time high for a second day but could not hold the level, closing lower for the day. It seems there is support around 14,675, which we'll look to hold in tomorrow's session. The trend line from the 5/12 low shows a +0.94% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line leads to a +0.71% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.53% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a surprise to see the indexes rally after inflation data was higher than expected. The weak 30y bond auction was enough to reverse the positive sentiment and send indexes lower. Tomorrow's producer price index data will add to the story, providing a heads up for more or less inflation coming down the road. Positive earnings reports for big banks didn't seem to matter today, but we'll see how investors respond to the sector over the next few days. The initial reaction may reverse, and we could see the sector go higher. That would be a positive sign for the next wave of earnings reports in the following weeks. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2