USD/MXN short opportunityHi fellows,
There is an excellent R:R short opportunity on this trade. Price may retest prior week's high so be cautious when opening a position.
Doji
Profits? duh. Multi time-frame analysis 2: A trade exampleOk, so I promised I'd make another effort to do more analysis. I am however currently in Taiwan travelling so this will be short.
Here we have another example of how including multiple time-frame analysis in your trading routine can keep you profitable.
Let's go back to 12th November last week on the OANDA:CADCHF (Use the back testing feature on your chart in a separate tab if you'd like to follow along more closely):
As you can see there doesn't appear to be much going on. The Daily chart is looking kind of choppy from the previous couple of weeks, although there does appear to have been a bull run since September with a recent "Golden Cross" of the 50/200 EMAs and price still trading above these dynamic SR levels. At this point then, if you're even thinking of trading this pair, you might be feeling bullish. But what happens if we zoom out to the Weekly chart?
This suddenly becomes a little more interesting. You first notice a wedge pattern forming and additionally weekly deceleration right at the 0.7650-0.7700 SR Zone. What are the EMAs doing? Well the 50EMA (Red) is below the 200 EMA (Blue). So the long term trend is clearly Bearish, and appears to have been for a while. With Weekly Price Action stalling in an important SR Zone, right at the topside of a wedge AND trading between the weekly 50/200 EMAs, you can see the picture is totally different from what were presented on the daily. With all this information and considering the choppy price action on the daily, it is fair to say that the lower time-frames could be presenting us with a prime intraday swing entry opportunity.
It turns out we didn't have to look too far. Here is the 4hr chart just before we set an entry order -
Almost too convenient, right?
Lets breakdown what we're seeing here.
Apart from the obvious Doji/High Test at the 0.7650 SR Level, we are also at the all important 0.618 Fib Retracement level (note below)**. Despite the apparent choppiness on the Daily/Weekly time-frames the 4hr chart is showing a new Bear run, identified cleanly by lower highs and lower lows. If that wasn't already enough confluence for you, price has also rejected the Daily Pivot Resistance Level (R1). For me this was the perfect time to set up an entry. I'll save entry placements for another time but here () is how I positioned my Entry and Stoploss (SL) levels. As it was an intraday entry that I fully intended to be in, I placed the entry fairly close to where price was trading. A quick note on SL - Some people love to wring as much out of their risk reward ratio as possible by placing their stops quite close to the top of the candle that they are trading off. Sometimes this works, but in my experience not enough to make an otherwise profitable trade... profitable. You'll notice that my SL was placed above the last Swing High on the time-frame I am trading off. If you check out this chart -
You'll see that turned out to be a good choice. Price ranged for another couple of days in the end, and having that "breathing room" allowed me to remain in the trade and eventually reach my profit target at 0.7550, the next significant Daily Support level.
So that's it for multiple time-frame analysis!
I included this form of analysis in EVERY trade decision. Sometimes it can turn you off a trade, sometimes it can confirm one and just sometimes - like here - it can give you opportunities where you thought there were none!
I hope you enjoyed this. Please leave your thoughts and your own styles in the comments below so I too might learn from you!
Regards,
ForexVader
**Fibonacci Levels -
Much like trend lines and SR levels, there can be a fair amount of debate over how these are drawn. I tend to get the best results from using actual close/open prices and not the high/low candle prices. It boils down to preference and experience. But experience says a lot, I am only using mine.
Weekly completed -
Daily completed trade -
Update on SPYEnded up taking a small loss on SPY calls in the morning as I was quick to cut the loss as I realized tons of selling pressure as well as the break of support trendline in the morning of todays open. If anybody took puts at the open as I mentioned I would do, you should be sitting on some nice profit right now, I would lock that profit here as SPY is at another inflection point. This is now an hourly chart and a clear doji candle has formed currently meaning we are looking at a good fight between bears and bulls. Break and candle close below yellow box is bearish or break above blue line known as 5ma and candle close above is bullish.
Bitcoin Dragonfly on Daily & Extreme low RSI - Buy the bloodJust check it your self
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
BTCUSD daily chartHello,
BTCUSD is going to hit a red 9 on the sequential (next candle), meaning inversion. The red 8 candle is forming a dragonfly doji, meaning inversion. The RSI is at all time low's. It will probably go up at this point.
Note: My long term analysis is bearish. This is a daily analysis. In the long term i think we are going lower than we are now.
Best regards,
Alexandre Simões
TSLA short idea. Target 276Island doji candle, at monthly pivot R2, at around 0.618 retrace level ---> good short entry signal
Wave price projection is pretty low, so I would not rely on that setup yet. However I am trading this short until 276. Stop loss on chart.
Good luck trading!
Education post 13/100 – How to trade doji candlestick pattern?– A Doji is a small bodied Japanese candlestick pattern whose opening and closing are at the same or nearly the same price.
– A Doji is usually part of common Japanese candlestick reversal patterns like the bullish Morning Star and bearish Evening star patterns
– Because Dojis are found in a large number of reversal patterns, traders automatically think that the single doji is a reversal candlestick. But in fact, the doji by itself represents indecision in the marketplace.
– A Doji breakout setup provides an excellent risk to reward opportunity for forex traders.
The lowly doji is very unassuming in appearance. Typically, it looks like a plus sign but can appear as a capital “T” in the Dragonfly doji pattern or the shape of a nail in the Gravestone Doji. We are going to be discussing the first two types of dojis found in the “cheat sheet” above. These small candles can lead to large breakouts that either continue trends or reverses them. We are going to look at the way to trade these power packed price patterns with limited risk for maximum potential gain
Typical candlesticks consist of a body that may be one of two colors; blue or red. A candle is blue if buyers were able to push prices above the opening price and were able to hold it until the close of the candle. A candle is red or bearish is sellers were able to push prices below the opening price and hold it there until the close.
On the other hand, the doji candles have no color. The doji and long-legged doji illustrate the battle between buyers and sellers that ended in a tie. The opening price and closing price are in the same place as bulls were unable to close prices higher and bears were unable to close prices lower.
How to Trade the Doji Breakout
Ideally, you want to find a doji that has formed near a level of support like a trend line. You want to identify the doji high and the doji low as this will determine the support and resistance levels of a potential breakout.
NZDUSD Short scalp hourly.(Trend = Bullish)[Short scalp for Fib]nzdusd WORKING OFF OF THE DAILY DOJI. We might wanna get in and out of shorts here. untill we break the bull trend setup.
Get or buil;d longs from 0.5 Fib for trend continuation,
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 239)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “The 1h triangle comes to a head in about 13 hours. I can’t imagine consolidating $6,400 any longer than that.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50
Patterns: Wyckoff hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,383 | R: $6,419
BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is entirely below bottom or triangle, will be interested to see if it closes that way
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Hovering on it / neutral
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Weekly candle that just opened is well above / bullish
Long term trend ( 32 Week): bearish
Overall trend: Neutral
Volume: Lowest weekly volume since the price has been > $1,000
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Weekly doji | back to back daily dojis with tweezer top and tweezer bottom (never seen that before)
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud with strong support at $6,400 is starting to thin
TD’ Sequential: Weekly r4 | If Oct close < $6,390 then will be a r3 | 4h g2 is > g1 at $6,420
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th' (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +0.14% | 2w: -0.34% | 1m: -2.99%
Bollinger Bands: Price back above MA and top band in line with bear trend line. Indicates retest is likely
Trendline: At $6,520
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: 2 Up: $6,471 | 2 Down: $6,354
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Monthly < 25 and looks like it is about 5 months away from bullish cross. Did a great job of calling the bottom of the last bear market
Summary: After the last couple days didn’t lead to any solid significant conclusions I thought it would be best to heed some age old wisdom:
when in doubt, zoom out
I do not like the monthly chart other than for calling extremes (tops/bottoms) and the current environment made me think it was worth another look. That led to the following post:
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart
Using the Stochastic and TD’ Sequential I came to surprisingly similar conclusion as I did in the 3 Day Comparison where I used mostly moving averages and trendlines. That has given me more confidence in my target but I will not allow it to cloud my judgement.
I have not added any more to my position and I have not changed my overall game plan. I did call for the $6,400 trading range to come to an end by now and that turned out to be a bolder prediction that I thought.
Meanwhile the traditional markets are really heating up and I will continue focusing on them while waiting for this range to break. Orders are still set to add to my ETH position at $198.4 | $194.9 | $187.7
GBPAUD formed a doji starA doji star formed at daily chart so I placed two stop orders:
1- Buy stop at doji high, Stop loss at doji low and take profit at fibonacci level 61.
2- Sell stop at doji low, stop loss at doji high, take profit at 1.7900 just to have risk/reward ratio above 1 (1.03 in this case) and a round number acts very often as a support/resistance.
ADVICE:
This idea is based on my researches, do your own study and don't invest based on this idea only.
If you like my scripts and ideas and find it usefull to you, please consider to offer me a coffee:
Donate 1$ or BTC equivalent at my blockchain wallet 1M4evumNsLBqrovYLpqATiQTLQZXUKZGYU&amount=0.00016041.
Thanks
Please use comment section for any feedback.
NZDUSD doji starA doji star formed at daily chart so I placed two stop orders:
1- Buy stop at doji high, Stop loss at doji low and take profit at weekly high; then, if position goes well, TP can be moved to resistance area and SL at fibo 23.
2- Sell stop at doji low, stop loss at doji high, take profit at 75 pips just to have risk/reward ratio above 1 (1.1 in this case).
ADVICE:
This idea is based on my researches, do your own study and don't invest based on this idea only.
If you like my scripts and ideas and find it usefull to you, please consider to offer me a coffee:
Donate 1$ or BTC equivalent at my blockchain wallet 1M4evumNsLBqrovYLpqATiQTLQZXUKZGYU&amount=0.00016041.
Thanks
Please use comment section for any feedback.
USDCAD: doji star on weekly chartA doji star formed at weekly chart so I placed two stop orders:
1- Buy stop at doji high, Stop loss at doji low and take profit at resistance
2- Sell stop at dojii low, stop loss at doji high, take profit at a support formed in May 2018
ADVICE:
This idea is based on my researches, do your own study and don't invest based on this idea only.
If you like my scripts and ideas and find it usefull to you, please consider to offer me a coffee:
Donate 1$ or BTC equivalent at my blockchain wallet 1M4evumNsLBqrovYLpqATiQTLQZXUKZGYU&amount=0.00016041.
Thanks
Please use comment section for any feedback.
AMAZON - Buy opportunityAmazon stocks where retracing in last few days and weekly chart is forming a doji star.
Slow stochastic confirms a rebound to oversold line.
Good opportunity for buy.
There are two possible entries.
Conservative:
- Place a buy stop just few pips above doji star high;
- Stop loss at low of previous week;
- Take profit with a risk/reward ratio above 1.5.
Aggressive:
- AMZN pre-market session is negative;
- Enter long at market open;
- Stop loss at low of previous week;
- Take profit with a risk/reward ratio above 1.5, better if 2.
ADVICE:
This idea is based on my researches, do your own study and don't invest based on this idea only.
If you like my scripts and ideas and find it usefull to you, please consider to offer me a coffee:
Donate 1$ or BTC equivalent at my blockchain wallet 1M4evumNsLBqrovYLpqATiQTLQZXUKZGYU&amount=0.00016041.
Thanks
Please use comment section for any feedback.
GO Chain Bullish SignalsGo Chain has some bullish signals;
- it touched and bounce from .618 fib level
- it has an hourly bullish doji
- it can do a bullish ABC pattern and if so it can start the C wave
- it has a bullish flag
IWM: Path of least resistance is upDear all, it should be evident from IWMs recent price action that this level and pressure of selling is not consistent at all. She is way oversold and ripe for an upward bounce please see verbiage in the chart to see exactly why. While I would not be surprised to see sideways consolidation or potentially even a new bottom (not likely) it should be clear the path of least resistance is up. Based on the horizontal volume profile (represents levels of volume at any given price range) IWM should levitate towards the upper 160s at least but I do not have a specific price point at this time. Thanks for reading please leave questions and comments below.
A short term ideaThis is what I see.
The ADX line shows us the BTC is in accumulation phase and also it shows the past 23 days of BTC moves was not a Bull trend the ADX didn't go higher than 25%, Thats very bearish.
Currently price consolidates in a rising wedge which is made between uptrend line and the 25% level line of fan, this is also bearish.
At the end of chart we have 3 Doji, one green and next of it is the yesterday's red Doji candle and today's candle which is not closed yet but if it close as a Doji then it is very bearish too.
They can be a Bearish Tristar pattern or if we don't consider the first one as a Doji (it is a little taller than others) then the 2 other can make 2 Doji in row which is bearish too.
I think today we will know which way BTC will go, up or down.
In my opinion in next 4-5 days BTC will go to 6000-6200 region or it can go lower, then the trend will change to a upward trend.
This is very good for Bitcoin, I really like to see it oversold on daily chart, it can be an excellent rocket fuel for Bitcoin.
Closer look of rising wedge:
EUR/JPY LongHey Traders!
Here on the EUR/JPY we can see a good opportunity to go long:
DAILY Chart:
1- The market is above 200 EMA
2- After breack of the resistance level, we can see a nice pullback to the same structure (now as a support level)
3- Formation of the Doji Candlestick
4H Chart:
(nothing)
Office Depot opportunityOffice Depot opportunity:
Stochastic rebound at level 20.
Doji formed on 2018-09-13.
Stock strenght is good.
My suggestion is a buy stop at 3.23 and follow the trade untill stochastic goes in overbought area.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 199)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: Identified resistance cluster from $6,67 - $6,887 that I believed will be the top of this bounce / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,539 | Weak S: $6,450
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks toppy with hanging man and then extended range.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0384%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is being tested for resistance | 26 = -2.05%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -4.28% | 128 = -7.53%
Volume: Declining volume while price rises on 1h
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,637 | 0.786 = $6,414
Candlestick analysis: Daily doji | 4h bearish engulfing tweezer top
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud providing resistance. Thick cloud with flat top says it will be strong from $6,500 - $6,750 | Add this to the resistance cluster mentioned in yesterday’s post
TD’ Sequential: Daily on a green 4. Top on the 4h 9 mentioned yesterday.
Visible Range: Looking back to February when we have continued to test this price makes the most sense and it shows the point of control at $6,514 and a high volume node up to $6,724
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.02% | 24h = - | 1w = +1.38% | 2w = -9.98% | 1m = +4.49%
Bollinger Bands: A return to the MA at $6,743 is to be expected after bouncing from the bottom band
Trendline: At this pace we will test the top of the descending triangle at $7,031
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up = $7,475 | Down = $6,065
On Balance Volume: Moving with price / no div’s
ADX: ADX fell below 25 indicating trendless market.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bouncing from oversold zones on weekly. Pulling back from overbought zones on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.98 | D = 46.51
Stoch: Daily buy signal is trending up.
Summary: I am starting to think that we are going to see the price resist below the original cluster that I was looking at. I would be surprised if we break through that daily doji from yesterday. That is when I expected the rally to $6,700+
Instead we were unable to test $6,660 and now the 4 hour chart is showing serious signs of a top. The high volume sell off followed by the bearish engulfing tweezer top is a strong indication that we will continue down from here.
Nevertheless the shorts remain at all time high territory and are showing significant signs of a top themselves. Will be get one more squeeze that takes us to $6,700 - $6,800 or will we sell off from here? I would say it is about 55%:40% and 5% other.
Here is my ETH:USD chart. The pale red box is where I want to build my next short position. The dark red boxes are shorts that have been called on this blog.
I also have an order set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474 and I am 66% entered on my EOS:ETH short at 0.0252326. Click here for my EOS analysis.
Be aware of this crucial BTC signal in the next few daysThe Stochastic RSI is a very powerful indicator of momentum in the market, and on the daily Bítcoin chart it is clearly showing that the bulls have likely run out of momentum. This is backed up by the low volumes the bulls are offering as they struggle to pass the strong $7120 historical resistance level , plus a Relative Strength Index which had been rapidly approaching oversold territory.
The Stoch RSI (like all indicators) is an indicator of what has happened and not what will happen... although as is the nature of technical analysis , we can look to history and infer what is most likely. Like a ball thrown up in the air (buying), it will eventually lose momentum, slowing to a temporary halt (think Doji candle), before coming back down (selling)... and so the cycle continues. You just need to recognise when this is happening.
When the Stochastic RSI crosses down over the 80 line after a strong bullish period, it usually always confirms a period of substantial selling is underway.
Following the most recent examples of the Stoch RSI crossing bearishly below 80:
In early July we dropped from $6820 to $6072 (an 11% drop)
In late July we dropped from $8497 to $5880 (a 31% drop)
If (and it's a big if) we cross down below 80 in the next few days... we could easily see BTC -2.07% drop from our recent high of $7125 back to our recent low of $6140 (a 14% drop). On the plus side, this presents a fantastic buying opportunity for all in Bítcoin, but especially in altcoins such as Ethereum -3.86% , Ripple XRP, Cardano, Stellar 0.00% and Litecoin.
For these reasons, I highly recommend you keep an eye on the Stochastic RSI .
Ultimately I see $100,000 as a very conservative estimate for Bitcoin -2.07% in just the next two years, with $250,000 far more likely. We just need to hit the true bottom (likely in the $5000 area) before we can get there.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting.
This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
