USDTI think the probability of this happening is very high
But who knows??
Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't.
Dollar
EURUSD (Cycles)EURUSD Moving on the channel. I showed the cycles (about 4 year cycle). Need touch to resistance line of the channel (50-61.8% level fibonacci). After that, I must show the minimum of this cycle. Most likely it will be in 2018. This will be accompanied by a strong strengthening of the dollar
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold has started the week off by dropping lower, which is what we want to see. Flat correction + Wave 2 correction complete, which means Wave 3 sell's are in full effect. Any push higher on Gold, use it to your advantage & open further sell positions📉
AVAX/USDTI think the path ahead for the AVAX looks like this.
This is just one of the many possibilities before us.
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 23, 2024 USDJPYDoubts about the Bank of Japan's rate hike plan and widening yield differential between the US and Japan put pressure on the yen.
Traders are expecting a short-term boost from the US consumer confidence index, which will be released on Monday.
The Japanese yen (JPY) starts the new week on a softer note and remains a short distance from the five-month low reached on Friday against its U.S. counterpart. Doubts over when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again have proven to be a key factor weighing on the JPY. In addition, the recent widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan, backed by the Federal Reserve's (BoJ) tightening stance, is undermining the low-yielding JPY.
Added to this, the overall positive tone in equity markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, strong inflation data released in Japan on Friday left room for a potential BoJ rate hike in January or March. This, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, did not help the USD/JPY pair to realize upside potential in the Asian session in the absence of any fundamental catalyst.
Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 156.00, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Levels For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis & important
supports and resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 20, 2024 GBPUSDThe Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound.
The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%.
The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline.
Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading.
As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
DXY - Bullish Wave ContinuesWe analysed DXY / Dollar few days back and it was highlighting a potential break above. This hsa been confirmed and the price now targets above Fib levels.
Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Mastering AUDUSD: Key Trading Zones Revealed for Optimal EntriesGreetings, traders! Welcome to this AUDUSDmarket analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas.
Trade safely
Trader Leo
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold has officially broken below the 'Flat Correction' channel & Wave 3 sell's are in full effect! This sell volatility was induced by the Federal Reserve lowering the Interest Rate down to 4.5% last night.
As per usual fundamentals come into effect AFTER and push price towards our technical bias. I've said it before & I'll say it again. Politics & Economic data is one of the most manipulated facades out there😉
DXY (THE DOLLAR INDEX)1. If the Dollar Breaks Out Above Resistance
This scenario indicates bullish momentum, meaning the dollar could strengthen further.
Implications:
Continuation of Uptrend: Breaking resistance often signals strong buying interest or positive sentiment.
Next Target: The price may move toward the next resistance level or a new high.
Market Sentiment: This could result from strong economic data, higher interest rate expectations, or geopolitical factors favoring the dollar.
Traders’ Actions:
Enter long (buy) positions after confirming the breakout.
Set stop-loss orders just below the breakout level to manage risk.
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2. If the Dollar Fails to Break Resistance
This scenario indicates a potential reversal or consolidation below the resistance level.
Implications:
Reversal to Downtrend: Failure to break resistance often signals profit-taking or bearish sentiment.
Support Retest: The price might fall to test lower support levels.
Market Sentiment: This could occur due to weak economic data, dovish central bank policies, or stronger foreign currencies.
Traders’ Actions:
Consider short (sell) positions if rejection at resistance is confirmed.
Monitor for bearish patterns (e.g., double top or bearish engulfing candles).
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Confirmation is Key
Volume Analysis: A breakout with high volume is more reliable, while rejection with high selling volume confirms resistance.
Economic Data Events: Major announcements like interest rate decisions or employment data can influence the direction.
Would you like help with specific dollar pairs or technical analysis?
DXY Weekly - Dollar IndexSimple Trading - Wyckoff Event
If the event has started then the dollar index will have one heck of a year coming into Q1 and Q2.
Watch for volume change on the intraday day time frame and expect the trend to continue bullish.
Long story short the DXY is growing strong with the rise of BTC and Donald Trump being elected President.
Targets:
109.40 - previous support
111.50 - .616 Fibb level
113.80 - .50 Fibb level
TBT- Look Out for Exploding RatesThe Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness over the Middle East concerns may seal the deal. With the US Strategic Oil Reserves drained over recent years, a supply shock could boost oil prices dramatically.
Higher rates may also push gold and silver prices down temporarily, such moves would be an opportunity to further accumulate as dollar destruction is inevitable. While the administration hypes lower inflation numbers, moves in base metal stocks in addition to rising longer term interest rates certainly tell a much different story.
GOLD Had taken the downside liquidity! What's next?Was waiting to see this happen so that price can reverse and continue the bullish action. now that it has happened we just need to see more impulsive bullish action leading into the London session to continue the move.
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42 (UPDATE)Remember my USDCAD analysis posted 3 weeks ago? Market moved exactly how I said it would. We saw Wave III create its top, which led to sellers coming in & pushing price down towards our Wave IV zone.
Bulls came back in rejecting our Wave IV zone & now running 115 PIPS in profit towards our Wave V (Major Wave Y) target!
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42 (UPDATE)To no surprise, our USDCAD buy analysis worked out to perfection! Beautiful rejection from our Wave IV support zone & shot up 300 PIPS in profit towards our Wave V (Major Wave Y) target. Close out this trade now if you're still holding🔥
USD/CAD Price Action: CAD Hits Record Lows Against US DollarRecent developments have significantly impacted the USD/CAD pair, pushing it above 1.4200, marking the Canadian dollar's lowest level against the US dollar since March 2020. This decline is driven by the recent resignation of Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, sparking political and economic uncertainty amid ongoing tariff policy disputes with the US. The Bank of Canada's decision to lower its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%, following weak GDP growth data, has further pressured the CAD. Despite stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending, the BoC has signaled a pause on aggressive future rate cuts, leaving room for potential economic adjustments in response to growth and inflation challenges. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook on inflation and a robust labor market points to a cautious approach on rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength. As uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and economic data unfold, traders should closely monitor these developments to anticipate further USD/CAD movements and make informed trading decisions.
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 17, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD broke a three-day losing streak that took the pair to 1.2600 last week, recovering just over half a percent on Monday to return to the 1.2700 range.
UK services PMI results for December hit an 11-month low. On Tuesday, UK traders will focus on wage and labor data. Quarterly average wages are expected to rise to 5% year-on-year.
Markets await the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will be closely watching the Fed's updated summary of economic projections (SEP) and interest rate forecasts from policymakers.
U.S. PMI data for December was mixed, with the services PMI hitting multi-year highs and the manufacturing PMI falling below 50.0, indicating contraction. Retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, but may attract limited market attention ahead of the Fed's final rate decision this year.
On Wednesday, traders will keep an eye on fresh UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while the rest of the market will await the Bank of England's (BoE) latest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged.
Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2700, trading mainly with Buy orders
Dollar Index (DXY): One More Bullish Movement
Yesterday, I predicted a nice pullback on Dollar Index.
It looks like today, we have one more.
The price testing a key intraday/daily horizontal support
and formed a double bottom on that.
Bullish violation of its neckline may push the market higher.
Goal - 107.1
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GOLD is setting up for a Bullish PlayBeen waiting on gold to set up and find stability. Now I'm looking for it to take out low and make a low for the week before we get a strong move. We have to wait for the killzones to know what we will do or how it will play out.
GBP/USD Sell Setup Incoming!!we can clearly see a nice formation of a bearish structure on the monthly timeframe which is consistent with the weekly structure
we also a key monumental shift on the EMA crossover and the price is now below the trendline
So as the DXY (Dollar index) continue to rise we shall see GBPUSD continue lower and currently we have multiple confirmation in higher structure confirming the probability setup
Use proper risk management!!
stop loss anywhere at 1.29000 level seem okey!!
target 1.21500
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