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XAU/USD Weekly Analysis XAU/USD Weekly Analysis with support and resistance levels tailored between $2,800 and $3,000: XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: March 3–7, 2025 🔹 Overview: Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a critical consolidation phase, trading between $2,800 and $3,000. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, including U.S. jobs data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical events. 🔹 Key Support Levels: Immediate Support: $2,835–$2,850: Critical support zone, aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally. $2,800: Psychological support and a key structural level, reinforced by the 50-day SMA. Major Support (Downside Breach Scenario): $2,765–$2,780: Long-term trendline support from the 2024 lows. $2,735: Key swing low; a break below here could signal a deeper bearish trend. 🔹 Key Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: $2,900–$2,920: Key consolidation range high and near-term target for bullish momentum. $2,950: Previous week’s high and a critical barrier to further gains. Major Resistance (Upside Breakout Scenario): $2,975–$3,000: Psychological resistance and the upper bound of the bullish channel. $3,075: Fibonacci 127.2% extension and a potential breakout target. 🔹 Technical Scenario Breakdown: Bullish Case (Breakout): Trigger: Fed dovishness or USD weakness. Action: Break above $2,950 confirms bullish momentum. Targets: $2,975 (psychological level), then $3,075 (breakout extension). Bearish Case (Reversal): Trigger: Strong USD or risk-on sentiment. Action: Breakdown below $2,835 signals bearish shift. Targets: $2,800 (key support), then $2,765–$2,735 (trendline and swing low). Neutral/Range-Bound: Range: $2,835–$2,950. Action: Fade extremes (buy dips near $2,835, sell rallies near $2,950). 🔹 Price Action Drivers During the Week: U.S. Jobs Data (March 7): Weak NFP (<150k jobs) → USD sell-off → Gold rallies toward $2,950–$3,000. Strong NFP (>250k jobs) → USD strength → Gold tests $2,835–$2,800. Fed Commentary (March 5): Hawkish tone → Gold pressured below $2,835. Dovish tone → Rally toward $2,950+. Geopolitical Surprises: Escalations → Safe-haven surge → Gold breaches $2,975–$3,000. De-escalations → Profit-taking → Drop to $2,800. 🔹 Technical Tools to Monitor: RSI (14-day): Overbought above 70 indicates pullback risk; oversold below 30 signals potential rebound. MACD: Bullish crossover above the zero line strengthens upward bias. Volume: Confirm breakouts above $2,950 with rising volume. 📈 Summary: Support: $2,835–$2,850 (critical), $2,800 (structural), $2,765–$2,735 (trendline). Resistance: $2,900–$2,920 (immediate), $2,950 (key breakout), $2,975–$3,000 (psychological). Catalysts: U.S. data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical factors remain key drivers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 3, 2025 GBPUSDThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, started the new week on a weak note and has already cancelled out most of Friday's gains to more than a one-week high. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to post relative gains amid expectations of a less aggressive easing policy from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, concerns over US President Donald Trump's retaliatory tariffs and their impact on the UK economy may keep GBP bulls away from new bets. In addition, geopolitical risks could limit deeper USD losses and limit GBP/USD gains. Meanwhile, signs that the disinflation process in the US has stalled, reinforcing the case for the Fed to take a wait-and-see approach to future interest rate cuts, could also serve as a tailwind for the USD. This could help to further contain GBP/USD and warrant some caution before positioning for a resumption of the recent uptrend from levels below 1.2100, or the yearly low reached on 13 January. The main focus will be on the closely watched monthly US employment data on Friday. The widely-reported Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure will shape expectations on the path of the Fed rate cut and drive demand for the dollar in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2610, SL 1.2560, TP 1.2690
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 28, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD remains under selling pressure near 1.0390 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid risk-off sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index will take centre stage later on Friday. Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that 25 per cent duties on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, rather than April 2 as he had anticipated the day before. Trump also said goods from China would be subject to an additional 10 per cent duties. He also promised this week to impose 25 per cent tariffs on shipments from the European Union. Tariff uncertainty from Trump is likely to weigh on the common currency in the near term. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she expects the US central bank's interest rate policy to be put on hold for now amid a search for evidence that inflationary pressures are easing and returning to the 2 per cent target. Meanwhile, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said late Wednesday that the Fed should keep interest rates on hold, which continues to put downward pressure on inflation. The Fed's cautious stance could boost the US Dollar and serve as a headwind for EUR/USD. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0380, SL 1.0430, TP 1.0300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAUUSD UPDATED VIDEO ANALYSIS XAU/USD Analysis for 21 February 2025 Here’s a detailed breakdown of the factors influencing Gold (XAU/USD) for tomorrow, based on technical and fundamental insights from recent market data and forecasts: 1. Technical Analysis & Key Levels Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at 2,940–2,943 USD (record high observed on 19 February) A breakout above this zone could target 2,970 USD (next psychological barrier) or even 3,030 USD (Triangle pattern completion) Support Levels: Critical support at 2,887–2,906 USD. A drop below this range might trigger a deeper correction toward 2,850 USD Indicators: RSI (54.58): Neutral but leaning bullish. MACD & Williams %R: Buy signals Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought, suggesting short-term correction risks, though the broader uptrend remains intact 2. Fundamental Drivers Fed Minutes Impact: The release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes (scheduled for 19–20 February) is critical. A hawkish tone (e.g., delays in rate cuts) could strengthen the USD, pressuring Gold. Conversely, dovish hints may fuel bullish momentum Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine and Trump’s renewed tariff threats (e.g., 25%+ tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) may sustain safe-haven demand for Gold Dollar Dynamics: The inverse correlation between XAU/USD and the USD remains pivotal. A weaker dollar (due to risk-off sentiment or Fed easing expectations) could propel Gold higher 3. Price Action Scenarios Bullish Case: A sustained break above 2,943 USD confirms the Triangle pattern breakout, targeting 3,030 USD Continued safe-haven demand (geopolitical risks, tariffs) and dovish Fed signals may drive prices higher Bearish Risks: Failure to hold 2,900 USD support could trigger a correction toward 2,850 USD Hawkish Fed rhetoric or USD strength (e.g., strong economic data) may cap gains 4. Strategic Takeaways Entry Points: Long positions: Consider buying on dips near 2,900–2,877 USD with a stop loss below 2,850 USD Short-term traders: Target 2,970 USD if resistance at 2,943 USD breaks Risk Management: Monitor Fed Minutes and USD volatility. Adjust stop-loss levels dynamically based on news flow Conclusion Gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation hedging. However, tomorrow’s Fed Minutes will be pivotal in determining short-term momentum. A breakout above 2,943 USD opens the door to new highs, while a breakdown below 2,900 USD signals profit-taking or a deeper correction. Traders should align positions with technical levels and news-driven volatility. LIKE US BOOST US SHARE OUR IDEA COMMENT AND MOTIVATE
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
5
USDJPY - Potential upside from here?USD/JPY is currently consolidating within a range after a sharp downtrend from the 159.00 level. The price has established support around 148.50-149.00, forming a clear pattern. We're now waiting for a decisive break above the current consolidation area, which would signal renewed bullish momentum. Once we see this breakout, expect a minor retracement to retest the broken resistance as new support – this will be our key buying opportunity. With the descending trendline already broken and the forecast indicating potential upside to the 154.00 area, traders should focus on buy positions following this retracement, with stops below the support zone.
Long
by financialflagship
BTC USD UPDATEWe have seen an excellent drop to lower levels. Now, we're waiting to reload some spot trades. We're looking for a clear bullish shift before entering any spot positions. However, short positions taken into these levels have performed well, as indicated by the green on the screen. Currently, we're observing market reactions. If market makers are genuinely bullish at these levels, we should see a rapid price delivery. This means we have potentially long weeks ahead, and we need to be v [atient to avoid missing any smoves. Wait for safe trading opportunities.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by themarketknight
Dollar weakens amid growing economic uncertainty Persistent tariff threats from the Trump administration and rising concerns over the U.S. economy are weighing on the dollar. Trump reaffirmed his commitment to implementing tariffs on Mexico and Canada according to schedule and reiterated the need for reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, weak consumer confidence data further rattled investor sentiment, as the February CB Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 98.3 from 105.3, marking its lowest level since June last year. In Japan, accelerating inflation increases the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Japan’s January CPI rose 3.2%, the largest increase since June 2023. Bloomberg noted that with Japan's inflation among the highest in the G7, the BoJ may continue scaling back stimulus and shifting toward a more restrictive policy stance. After breaking below the ascending trendline, USDJPY shows a persistent downtrend. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, it widens the gap and reinforces the bearish momentum. If USDJPY breaks below the support at 148.20, the price could extend its decline toward 145.00. Conversely, if USDJPY tests the resistance at 150.80, it may gain upward momentum toward 153.40.
by inkicho_exness
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar! 🔥 The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness after breaching key support levels. With interest rate cuts on the horizon and a shift in economic policy, we may be entering a new phase for the dollar’s normalization. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch 🔹 Resistance: 107.5 (Immediate resistance) 🔹 Key Mid Support: 100.95 (Next major level) 🔹 Final Target: 94.8 (Major support & potential bottom) 📰 Fundamental Factors Driving the Move 💡 Trump’s Dollar Policy: Historically, Trump has favored a weaker dollar to boost exports. His recent remarks during the Executive Order signing on January 23, 2025, reinforce this stance, as he pushes for interest rate cuts and lower energy costs. Remarks by President Trump at Executive Order Signing (January 23, 2025): Q: Mr. President, you said earlier that you would like to see interest rates come down. THE PRESIDENT: Yeah. Q: How much would you like to see them come down? THE PRESIDENT: A lot. Q: And will you talk with Powell? THE PRESIDENT: I’d like to see them come down a lot, and oil prices will come down. And when oil prices come down, everything is going to be cheaper for the American people — and actually for the world — but for the American people. So, I’d like to see oil prices come down. Q: Are you worried that there’s too much going on at once if you’re trying to bring interest rates down and get the economy back going? THE PRESIDENT: No, no. It just works that way. I mean, it just economically works that way. When the oil comes down, it’ll bring down prices, then you won’t have inflation, and then the interest rates will come down. Q: You said that you would demand that the interest rates come down. Do you expect the Fed to listen to you? THE PRESIDENT: Yeah. 📉 What’s Next for the Dollar? 🔸 If 100.95 breaks, we could see further downside, testing the 94.8 region. 🔸 A retest of resistance at 107.5 would be a key test before further declines. 🔸 The global macro environment (oil prices, inflation, and geopolitical shifts) will heavily influence the dollar’s trajectory. 🌍 Economic & Geopolitical Impact Beyond monetary policy, Trump’s trade and labor policies are also playing a role in shaping the inflation outlook. His push for tariffs and tighter immigration policies has led to higher labor costs, causing short-term inflation. However, on the global stage, Trump's potential deal with Putin to resolve the Ukraine conflict could help ease inflation worldwide by stabilizing supply chains and reducing geopolitical risks. With Trump pushing for rate cuts, the Fed under pressure, and DXY losing momentum, could we see a full-scale dollar correction in 2025? Let’s discuss! ⏬ 📢 Follow for more macro insights & market analysis! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:DXYShort
by FX_Professor
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will Trade Tensions Push It Lower? EUR/USD has been struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.0500 mark, facing renewed selling pressure as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influence sentiment. With the US Dollar regaining strength and concerns about European economic stagnation growing, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.0532 (January 27 high), 1.0629 (December peak), 1.0744 (200-day SMA). Support Levels: 1.0405 (55-day SMA), 1.0282 (February 10 low), 1.0209 (February 3 low), and 1.0176 (January 13 YTD low). Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating modest momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 15, suggesting a weakening trend. Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 1.0744 serves as a key dynamic resistance, while the 55-day SMA at 1.0405 acts as interim support. Fundamental Analysis: Several key fundamental factors are exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD: Trade Policy Uncertainty: While US tariff tensions have temporarily eased, lingering trade disputes, including a 10% duty on Chinese imports and potential EU-targeted tariffs, keep investors cautious. Diverging Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve remains firm on keeping interest rates elevated, while the European Central Bank has begun rate cuts, signaling weaker economic confidence in the Eurozone. Economic Growth Divergence: The US economy continues to show resilience with robust labor markets and stable inflation, while the Eurozone faces stagnation and potential contraction, particularly in Germany. European Political Risks: Uncertainty in Germany and wider Eurozone economic struggles add to the Euro’s bearish outlook, making it less attractive compared to the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with key support levels in focus. Trade policies, central bank divergence, and economic growth disparities continue to drive market sentiment. This week is pivotal for the Eurozone, with key economic data releases culminating in Friday’s PMI figures, which could determine the pair’s next major move. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both technical and fundamental developments. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
Bitcoin Rejection at Resistance: Potential Drop to 94,825This BTC/USD 1-hour chart highlights a key resistance zone around 96,400, where price has tested and failed to break through. A rejection from this level suggests potential downside movement. If the price confirms rejection at resistance, a bearish move toward the target zone near 94,825 is likely. The overall setup indicates a possible short opportunity if resistance holds. Resistance : Around 96,400 – 96,600 Target: 94,825
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
3
DXY weekly Perspective 23.02.25DXY Analysis & Bias for This Week My outlook for the Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, which aligns with my bias for bullish moves on pairs like GU, EU, and Gold. Since price has already broken structure to the downside, I anticipate a retracement to mitigate the newly formed 14-hour supply zone before continuing lower. While price may react bullishly from the 3-hour or 2-hour demand zones I’ve marked, the overall momentum still favors the downside, as seen from the strength of recent bearish candlesticks. Plan of Action: 📌 Once price reaches the 14-hour supply zone, I will wait for lower timeframe confirmations before taking action. 📌 I will also check for any corresponding demand zones on my other pairs to ensure alignment across the board.
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level. However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend. With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
9