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DXY Approaching support , Prepare For A bounce DXY is approaching its support at 97.03 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ) where it could bounce to its resistance at 97.69 (100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (34, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 5% where a corresponding bounce is expected. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
TVC:DXYShort
by Klimex
1
DXY big test for NFPsAfter the big move yesterday following Draghi's dovish speech (introducing TLTRO's, weak economic forecasting...) the dxy is sitting on a key level after breaking the tame trend line (pink line). This level has: Previous high made in Nov/Dec 2018 61.8% retrace off 2017-2018 decline 75% slope off pitchfork Key pivot level (purple dotted line) 61.8% shorter-term pitchfork line A weekly look at that key pivot line A shorter term look at another pitchfork median line
TVC:DXY
by FibnFork
DXY Macro View 04/03 - End of Elliot waves? Retail sales decline 1.2% in Dec. The advance estimate of durable goods data for Dec revealed a rise in capital goods shipments. Housing starts drop 11.2% in December in overall starts marked. The third decline in the past four months. Consumer confidences reversed and rose to 131.4. Consumers reported that current conditions were good. US GDP outturn was strong than expected 2.2% rate that the market consensus had expected. The breakdown showed deceleration was led by personal consumption expenditures, which grew 2.8% in Q4. The effects of government shutdown started in December also showed as non-defense fed government spending tumbled at an annualized rate of 5.6% in Q4. Personal income and spending lower than expected. ISM manufacturing index dropped to 54.2 in February, lowest since 2016. Employment component slipped to 52.3 in February, which may shrink expectations for next week’s jobs report. DXY chart past week resisted 95.85 levels and came back up again. Last week H&S pattern drove down after the bottle neck broke and rebounded. Does this seem to an end of Elliot waves? A upward move might be seen if 96.70 levels breaks to 97.25 levels progression. Or a side way moves between 96.7 and 96.0 levels. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Bullish Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXY
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 25/02 - H&S?NAHB Housing Market Index rose two consecutive months after plunge over final months of 2018. “Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. The NAHB index gauges builders’ perception of present sales and future activity over the next six months, providing some degree of survey evidence for a housing market upturn. FOMC Meeting Minutes shows that shrinkage of balance sheet likely to stop at end 2019 and starting next year 2020, expect balance sheet to start growing organically again. Durable goods order report delayed by 27 days due to the US government shutdown. It rose to 1.2% in December and a revision to November’s increase. Core Durable Goods Orders was down another 0.7% in December and has now fallen in four out of the past five months. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plunged 21.1 points to contraction. But ISM Manufacturing PMI still a consistent expansion. “The factory sector still looks to be growing, but at the weakest pace in roughly two years,” from Empire survey. Existing Home Sales fell 1.2% to 4.94million-unit pace in January. Winter months are difficult to interpret due to large seasonal factor, home buying activity continues to trend lower. The partial government shutdown likely had little impact on January sales, but delays in the mortgage underwriting process may slightly weigh on sales in coming months. DXY chart past week resisted breaking down through 96.40 levels. H&S should seem to be formed but watching out level to break through bottle neck. A downward move might see to 96.00 levels progression or bounce off bottle neck levels and breaks 96.70 levels to 97.25 levels going forward. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Turning Bearish Stochastic – Moving towards oversold Overall - 2/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 17/02 - Range or Rage?NFIB Small Business Index dropped in January 3.2 points to 101.2, lowest since 2016. But remains high compared to historical averages. The drop was likely due to uncertainty arising from the government shutdown. NFIB uncertainty index rose 7 points to 86. Labour shortages remain a challenge. Expectation for future improvements in economic growth and higher sales both dropped in January. Plans to increase employment and inventories also slipped. Consumer prices were unchanged in January for the third consecutive month. Core prices rose 0.2% in January for the 5th consecutive month. Inflation will dip are expected over the next few months due to drop in both energy and food prices the past months. A weaker dollar is expected to lend some support to core goods prices while rising labour costs and a willingness among businesses to raise prices should underpin services inflation. The latest 2.2% y-o-y rate of US core inflation suggests no immediate pressure on FOMC to raise rates again soon. Retail sales dropped 1.2% in December, against expectations of modest increase. With seasonal factors expecting a jump in December, the adjusted numbers were depressed more than usual. Industrial Production in January dropped 0.6% unexpectedly where manufacturing is under pressure. DXY chart past week 96.70 levels from resistance has turn support. Reaches 97.25 levels but unable to break up any further. Overall suggestion upcoming week might be looking to test 96.70 levels going forward before any clear direction. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bearish MACD – Bearish Stochastic – Moving towards oversold Overall - 3/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 11/02 - Trend continuation?Factory Orders m/m declined 0.6% despite consensus expectation for modest increase. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 56.7, economy is growing at a slower pace. Trade Balance deficit narrowed in November on falling imports on petroleum products, which fell $2.9 billion on weaker volumes and lower oil prices. President Trump indicated that there will be no meeting with China's President Xi before the early March deadline. DXY Past week break out of the down trend line and turn bullish for the whole week till it reaches a resistant of 96.70 levels. Overall suggestion upcoming week might be looking at a break out of resistance level to 97.70 levels progression, of a bounce off to 96.00 levels progression. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Turning to Bearish Stochastic – Moving towards overbought Overall - 2/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 03/02 - Is The Tide Changing?Past week, President Trump reopen the government for 3 weeks till 15th February after being shutdown for 35 days. Consumer confidence decline to 120.2 in January and previous data revised downwards from 128.1 to 126.6. No plans to raise interest rates anytime soon from FOMC. - “The decision to keep rates on hold had been widely expected by the market because most FOMC members had been indicating in recent public comments that the committee likely will be on hold for the foreseeable future as it watches incoming economic data.” Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% during fourth quarter slower than previous 0.8% rise in Q3. New Home Sales increased 16.9% In November report after delay due to recent partial government shutdown. Non-Farm Employment Change came out 304k which is far better than expectation of 165K. But previous data revised downwards from 312k to 222k. ISM Manufacturing PMI came out better than previous and expected of 54.1 to 56.6. DXY for the month of January looks pretty much side way without a clear direction. Past week were bearish forming a down trend channel closed at the top of it. We might see a breakout of the channel leading to a sideward move. Overall suggestion upcoming week might see a continuous downward move to 95.00 levels progression. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Moving towards overbought Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 26/01 - Bend or Break?Past week, existing home sales in US fell 6.4%. CB Leading Index dropped 0.1%. Next week, the Fed will hold it’s 2-day meeting and statement will be released on Thursday. Friday NFP are forecasting a drop from 312k to 165k. DXY last week seems been picking up after it broke off 96.00 levels. It continues up to about 96.70 levels before having a strong bear down of 0.92% drop. We have to look forward to next week momentum again to watch out if is a bend or break. Overall suggestion upcoming week might see a side way movement between 96.50 and 95.50 levels progression. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bearish MACD – Bearish Stochastic – Oversold Overall - 3/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXY
by ForexBriefcase
1
US Dollar Index Macro View 20/01 - Happy Martin Luther King DayProducer Price Index fell 0.2% in December, NAHB Housing Market Index climb 2 points in January and Industrial Production expanded 0.3 in December. The ongoing partial government shutdown delayed the December reports for housing stats and retail sales last week. DXY last week broke 95.70 levels and head towards 96.30. It seems having some resistance levels where overall suggestion upcoming week might see it going towards 97.00 levels progression. US market is closed on Monday, observance of Martin Luther King Day. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Overbought Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase