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DXY Macro View 26/01 - Bend or Break?Past week, existing home sales in US fell 6.4%. CB Leading Index dropped 0.1%. Next week, the Fed will hold it’s 2-day meeting and statement will be released on Thursday. Friday NFP are forecasting a drop from 312k to 165k. DXY last week seems been picking up after it broke off 96.00 levels. It continues up to about 96.70 levels before having a strong bear down of 0.92% drop. We have to look forward to next week momentum again to watch out if is a bend or break. Overall suggestion upcoming week might see a side way movement between 96.50 and 95.50 levels progression. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bearish MACD – Bearish Stochastic – Oversold Overall - 3/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXY
by ForexBriefcase
1
US Dollar Index Macro View 20/01 - Happy Martin Luther King DayProducer Price Index fell 0.2% in December, NAHB Housing Market Index climb 2 points in January and Industrial Production expanded 0.3 in December. The ongoing partial government shutdown delayed the December reports for housing stats and retail sales last week. DXY last week broke 95.70 levels and head towards 96.30. It seems having some resistance levels where overall suggestion upcoming week might see it going towards 97.00 levels progression. US market is closed on Monday, observance of Martin Luther King Day. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Overbought Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
DXY US Dollar Index Macro View 13/01Past week, US ISM Non-Manufacturing index dropped in December. US jobs openings and NFIB Index dropped. Consumer Price Index dropped 0.1% but core price inflation remained firm and consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. DXY last week has broken H4 support at 95.70 levels and rebound turning that levels from support to resistance. Overall suggesting to watch 95.70 levels bounce break scenario. If prices go above levels, prices may reach 96.30 towards 97.70 progression. Or might range between 95.70 to 94.90 levels going forward. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Moving towards overbought, Bullish Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
DXY US Dollar Index Macro View 05/01 - Upcoming Week OutlookThursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and prices both decrease beyond expectations. Non-Farm Employment Change jumped by 312,000, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% and Unemployment Rate slightly increased to 3.9% in December. Previous months' Non- Farm numbers were revised higher by 58,000. Overall, the labour market remains strong. Next week outlook: Trade talk announcement starting from Monday. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers. FOMC Meeting Minutes but most likely remain unchanged. Chairman Jerome H. Powell joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019. For the past 2 months, DXY have been ranging sideways with no clear direction. There is a short strong bull but still unable to break it’s previous high at 97 levels, leading to a down 3 point down trend line formed. Overall suggesting to watch out 2 levels. If prices break through trend line on move towards 97.70 levels, the bull structure prevails from daily chart. Support levels at 95.00 will have to watch out a bounce break scenario. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bearish MACD – Bearish Stochastic – Moving out of oversold, Bullish Overall - 2/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
US Dollar Index correction stalls ahead of 97.00 levelsThe US Dollar Index rally yesterday might have surprised quite a bit of traders but this pullback was more than due before resuming lower again. Please note that the earlier drop last week had taken out a major support at 95.69 levels and yesterday's pullback could be seen as a reaction to that. The pullback managed to reach 96.96 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire drop between 97.71 and 95.65 levels respectively. Believe it or not, if the above structure holds true, we could see the US Dollar Index dropping rapidly towards 93.63 levels at least, as projected here. The higher degree wave structure is also suggesting that the US Dollar Index is either producing an expanded flat lower or a fresh impulse wave lower. Overall bearish momentum to remain, until prices stay below 97.71 levels respectively. Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
TVC:DXYShort
by FXTM
US Dollar Index Macro View 30/12 - Happy New YearLow volume is likely to continue in the US Dollar Index until coming Wednesday, the day after New year. Friday Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data might bring some volatility in the market. The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12300 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead. ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a Happy New Year. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
1
US Dollar Index Macro View 23/12 - Merry ChristmasThere is no surprise that Federal Reserve rate hike, US Dollar Index rallied after. Investor were looking for Fed Chair Powell dovish tone but his comments came out optimistic. The dollar rose despite the fact that 10-year Treasury yields dropped. Small adjustment in the statement on lowered growth and inflation forecast, these changes were not significant to push the dollar lower. Fed Chair Powell’s comments that he made it clear that nothing is predetermined and everything is data dependent but he also said the sharp decline in US equities and tightening of financial market conditions has not fundamentally altered their outlook. The Fed still plan to raise interest rates in 2019 and most policy makers expect the economy to grow. However, if the bond market continues to fall, it will be difficult for the dollar to sustain its strength. The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12330 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead. ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSISIn recent weeks the Dollar Index has moved within a rectangle. If we take the analysis on a "fundamental" level, it could be an inversion rectangle. Yesterday, the Fed raised rates. In the early hours, the dollar strengthened. It was enough, however, a reading of the Economic Projections to understand that the dollar came out weakened by the meeting. Briefly, almost all data were revised downwards (compared to the previous September report). In particular, the GDP dropped from 3.1% to 3.0% for this year and from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2019. The rate hikes, forecast three times in 2019, fell to two (at the moment). So, fewer rate hikes and weakened economic conditions certainly don't help the dollar. However, we have to take into account that, right now, it's not the best time to trade. In five days it's Christmas, and most of the big investors are currently out of the markets. So, everything becomes more complicated. In the medium-term, I'm convinced that we will see a drop in the dollar but in the short-term, anything can happen. To all of you Merry Christmas and a New Year full of gains!!
ICEUS:DX1!
by TradingwDavid
US Dollar Index Macro View 16/12Past week, Producer Price Indexes came out better than expected, U.S. consumer prices unchanged and U.S. Retail Sales previous data are revised upwards. Leading to a stronger US Dollars. Upcoming FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, interest rates and Press Conference 30 mins after data release. The Federal Reserve, is highly likely to hike interest rates for the fourth time this year, but how many more hikes will come in 2019? The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12330 & 12260 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
US Dollar Index Macro View 08/12Past week, 10 year Treasury rates dropped below 2.9% which will concerns about inflation and growth. No agreements will be made in the next 90 days for the next round of tariffs. Unemployment Claims increased, ADP reported smaller than expected rise in employment and Challenger Job Cuts y/y job cuts rose 51.5% in November. Trade balance also widened but factory orders and durable goods fell. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 60.7 from 60.3 but the employment component of the report declined. Friday Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change have both decrease while Unemployment Rate remains the same. Job growth slowed than improved in the month of November. ADP report significantly lower employment change but jobless claims increased, consumer confidence is down and most importantly, the employment component of the service sector activity report fell. While stocks fell sharply over the past 2 months, the US labor market are affected as business may have grown conservative about hiring. The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12280 & 12200 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
US Dollar Index Macro View 01/12 - G20 meeting outcome?The US Dollar fell after Fed chair Jerome Powell surprised the market by saying that interest rates are “just below” neutral levels. He believes economy will continue growth with low unemployment and inflation around 2%, but he thinks moving too quickly could risk shortening the US expansion. Personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased and pending home sales fell sharply. FOMC minutes did not help the dollar even though Fed officials saw the need for another rate hike. Even though there is a pickup in spending, the momentum in the economy is slowing. We might see if US delay additional tariffs with China in the G20 meeting until further talks, we could see a rally in equities and currencies. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Fed Chair Powell testifies and the non-farm payroll. The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12300 & 12225 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. ForexBriefcase deepest condolences to former US President George W. Bush. RIP. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
US Dollar Index progressing lower in Wave iii towards 95.00 now!The US Dollar Index is seen to be unfolding into a lower degree wave iii lower towards 95.00 levels. It has print a low at 96.60 levels and is seen to be trading at 96.71 levels at this point in writing. Looking into the wave structure, it remains quite clear that a higher degree Wave (C) is unfolding since 97.70 levels earlier and within that a lower degree wave iii could be in progressing against 97.54 highs now. We could see a brief pullback from current levels but ideally prices should remain below 97.54 and broadly below 97.71 levels, for the above counts to hold. Please note that at this moment we favor US Dollar Index to unfold as an (A)-(B)-(C) expanded flat and potential downside targets are 95.00 and 94.00 levels respectively. As an alternate though, if a triangle is unfolding, prices may bounce from around 95.00 levels to produce waves d and e. We shall present the above as prices unfold. Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
TVC:DXYShort
by FXTM
US Dollar Index Macro View 25/11 - Bull or Bear?For the past week, Durable Goods Orders dropped -4.4%, jobless claims increased and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower. While Building Permits & Housing Starts came out as expected, it becomes clear that the momentum in the U.S. economy is easing. With stocks nearly coming back down of this all of this year’s rise, investors and business are not excited about the outlook for the economy. Central bank’s optimism could begin suffer as businesses delay investments and curtail hiring on the labor market. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Consumer Confidence, Q3 Prelim GDP revisions, Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Personal Income and FOMC Meeting Minutes. The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12260 & 12200 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
1
US Dollar Index Macro View 18/11The US Dollar Index last week are unable to stay above 12260 levels even though there was an increase of consumer prices and retail sales numbers. Ultimately, the Fed policy direction until December are still clear and recent stocks are under pressure for investors to look back into US dollars. The long-term still remains as unchanged constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term still remains unchanged, where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term are suggesting back to sideway might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Upcoming Thursday is a US thanksgiving day, a US Federal holidays. Wishing all US citizen, a happy holiday. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase