Dollar-index
$USDMXN US Dollar Mexican Peso Bearish Wolfe Wave: 60 MinHello Traders,
I spotted a Wolfe Wave already underway. We just retested the underbelly of the 2-4 line. This would be a good short at the current level. An exit at the 1-4 line would secure profits.
US DOLLAR LONG TERM OUTLOOK IS GREATLooking back since the 60's the DXY chart creates a falling wedge. Which we have now broken out of. The current chart shows a double bottom that began with the leg down in 1986. This entire double bottom is accumulation. The MACD shows a divergence, which supports accumulation.
This latest run up seems to have a lot of upward momentum, there is 30 years of accumulation behind it so thats not necessarily surprising. Many people are currently speculating another recession in the US economy but it is my belief we will see a strong dollar in the coming years. Maybe even a new all time high.
STRONG DOLLAR PROJECTIONWe will likely see a strong dollar for the coming weeks.
This is not a trade. It is just a forecast to help see how strong the dollar will be in the future
$EURUSD Wolfe Wave, Eyeing Point 5Hello Traders,
Looking at the EURUSD pair we have a Wolfe Wave that just completed at point 4. Looking at the 1-4 line trajectory we can see that it has acted as an anchor throuhgout the formation of this Wolfe Wave. I'm looking at 5 and potentially 5' to complete.
If we see completion at point 5 look for the 1-4 line as your exit target. If we make a lower AND hit the 5' line off of point 3 look for an exit at Geo's Off-Set rule at point 4.
-Chartistry
$AUDUSD Wolfe Wave, Point 4 In SightHello Traders,
In this Wolfe Wave I want to highlight the internal moves between the points.
Points 1-2: You want to look for an abcd pattern in the development of points 1-2. Though it is not always the case this usually helps define whats coming later on.
ab=cd
Points 2-3: Similar to 1-2, 2-3 also forms an abcd pattern. 2-3 is typically the longest wave in length and time. It can also possess more complex internal wave patterns as the points are being created.
Points 3-4: This path is similar to point 1-2 as it forms another, smaller, abcd pattern. If point 1-2, for example, is an impulse move, look for 3-4 to act in the same manner.
Points 4-5: There are a number of moves that can develop between these points, another abcd, ZigZag pattern, or a swift move to the downside is possible. This move is really what I am interested in seeing in this chart!
Finally, I want to hone in on the 1-4 trajectory line and how it can potentially help us figure out where point 4 is. Notice how I place the trajectory at an angle that acts as an anchor throughout the formation of this Wolfe Wave. I would also be interested to see how this plays a role in this formation.
If you find this chart helpful please let me know by liking and following! :-}
Thank you,
-Chartistry
$DXY US Dollar Index Wolfe Wave and Geo's Off-Set RuleHere is a forecast of the Dollar Index based off of the Wolfe Wave and Geo's Off-Set Rule #3.
Geo's Off-Set Rule #1 = 1-4 Line
Geo's Off-Set Rule #2 = Point 4
Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 = Point 3
USDOLLAR TARGETING 98.9 on USDx (12200 USDOLLAR)Index currently coming off point of control at 12100. Next key PoC is 12200. Bear this in mind when trading USD pairs. Could be an indication of risk on sentiment returning, however divergence between the index and safe havens (JPY and CHF) could lead to strong indication that risk off sentiment is still applicable.
More Dollar Strength on its way?From a technical stand we look like taking another leg higher on the Dollar as you can see from my chart here. We also have more and more talk about a Fed rate hike before the end of the year which even if it doesn't happen can cause a rally in to that news with the excitement it will create.
How Will The USD React to Today's Fundamentals? Don't Gamble! From the lower time frames, the USD looks rather bullish, the reason for that is clear when you look at this daily chart. Over the last week or so, the dollar has made a significant rally and when looking at this rally on the lower time frames it appears the the USD is in a strong uptrend that will likely see new structure highs. However, with that being said, when we move up to the higher time frames on this pair like the daily and the weekly we see this clear range that price action has been trading in. With the underlying trend of this pair from a very long term perspective being bullish, this range and/or "pattern", if you would like to call it, can be signified as a bullish pattern if in fact price action does break out of the pattern to the upside. However there is a very good chance that price action could continue trading in this range for a few more weeks. With price action being bucked up at the top of this range and some very important US fundamentals coming out in under one hour there is a strong possibility that, if this market wants to continue ranging, the upper trend line will hold as resistance and price action will make a downward move to the bottom of the range. Is there potential for the upside break out to occur today from the US data being released today? Sure, there is always that possibility, but it is a total gamble. To conclude, as very few retail traders are equipped with an all mighty crystal ball, it would be best to remain in cash during the US data release and wait for the market to digest the data before looking to get involved in any positions. After the market digests the data then look to get involved and ride out some of the momentum that resulting from the data release. This will present the least amount of risk and give the highest percentage of successful trades as the "market makers" will decide where the markets are going this morning, and once those decisions are finalized the markets will, without doubt, move in which ever direction has been decided for them. Good luck to you all, and hopefully this will open up the eyes of some of the traders that find themselves gambling on a daily basis.
$DXY US Dollar Short term view.A clear signal has been formed during the last week, so I will look for a short opportunities during the intraday price action.
Crude sitting at important support. $42 is calling. One is hard pressed to find a macro bull case for crude. Supply is poised to rise, demand is looking to slow, and the dollar looks ready for another leg higher. Longer term, I still believe we'll see new lows in oil and the technicals make an easy case for a full retracement of this Spring's ascent.
Currently, crude is sitting at important support, which coincides with both the psychologically important, 50 level and the 61.8% fib retracement (49.84). Watch for a bounce off of 50 back up to the 50% fib retracement (52.24). Otherwise, a breakdown below 49.84 will usher in another leg down, targeting 46.89. This could be a rather steep descent if we see the dollar index break out above resistance at yesterday and today's high ~98.30.
I'm currently short, but will look to add to that short on a move below 49.84, targeting 46.89 with a stop at 51.04.
Dollar index at inflection pointThe pennant on the chart is on the verge of a break.
Proceed with caution as one needs to wait for the confirmation yet.
But the price action and the fundamental factors/ economic noise around looks ripe to push this above.
If confirmed, we should see a good rally towards 100 level.
Implications: Commodities will suffer (Read: oil and gold)
Fed hike will be postponed if the move happens to be swift and decisive.
Dollar Index H&SThe H&S is currently in play an the USD is holding on above neckline and we will not rule out a retest of that neck line for a well defined entry and risk. Target is very much of higher number at 11950 or even higher depending on how the Europe act with Greece.
Stay safe
DOLLAR INDEX : TRIANGULATING OUR THOUGHTS!!DXY has been consolidating and leaving little clues as to which direction it is likely to follow. The Elliot Wave counts on the chart show 3 potential counts all of which are viable counts. Triangulating price action by any asset class is always tricky and from an Elliot Wave perspective it exposes the subjective nature of this discipline. Below 96.17 sees the Flat Correction count winning out but above 100 sees the triangle completed and a final push to new highs will likely be the outcome. Patience is key whilst the triangle matures.
