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Dollar-index

Crude sitting at important support. $42 is calling. One is hard pressed to find a macro bull case for crude. Supply is poised to rise, demand is looking to slow, and the dollar looks ready for another leg higher. Longer term, I still believe we'll see new lows in oil and the technicals make an easy case for a full retracement of this Spring's ascent. Currently, crude is sitting at important support, which coincides with both the psychologically important, 50 level and the 61.8% fib retracement (49.84). Watch for a bounce off of 50 back up to the 50% fib retracement (52.24). Otherwise, a breakdown below 49.84 will usher in another leg down, targeting 46.89. This could be a rather steep descent if we see the dollar index break out above resistance at yesterday and today's high ~98.30. I'm currently short, but will look to add to that short on a move below 49.84, targeting 46.89 with a stop at 51.04.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by simonsays452
1
DOLLAR INDEX : TRIANGULATING OUR THOUGHTS!!DXY has been consolidating and leaving little clues as to which direction it is likely to follow. The Elliot Wave counts on the chart show 3 potential counts all of which are viable counts. Triangulating price action by any asset class is always tricky and from an Elliot Wave perspective it exposes the subjective nature of this discipline. Below 96.17 sees the Flat Correction count winning out but above 100 sees the triangle completed and a final push to new highs will likely be the outcome. Patience is key whilst the triangle matures.
INDEX:DXY
by Legionnaire
US Dollar Index To Fall - First Support at 84.50The US Dollar Index has been rising strongly for most of this year, coincident with a major decline in broad based commodity indexes. However, we are currently seeing signs that the current price level may be the end of this strong run and lead to a major consolidation - likely coincident with a rally in overall commodities. This chart shows the daily Dollar Index. There is a notable divergence on the momentum indicator between the October high and the current December high. The notes on the chart show that a typical price target after a divergence pattern would be for a retracement to the price low of the divergence pattern - in this case at about 84.50 which would be the next major horizontal price support on the chart. Also while not shown on the chart the current Commitment of Traders data shows that the large speculators maxed there net long position at the October high as well, and the current run up from Oct to December has been on commercial buying which is opposite their normal pattern, and is a typical and classic sign of capitulation in a trend. This creates a compelling technical set-up for a sell out or short position. And the CoT data gives us confirmation from the "fundamentals" as evidenced in the extreme net short of the "smart money" commercial traders. The divergence or capitulation in commercial positions just gives us another aspect of market psychology suggesting that the trend is very close to an end.
INDEX:DXYShort
by StockMarketAlchemy
1