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simple fib zoneduring fed rate hike cycle due strong dollar eurusd was collapsing since fed rate cut pricing begin after their last 75bps rate hike in 2022 eurusd has retrace 61% from top to bottom , price testing this area again 1.12746 will be a strong resistance level if price don't breaks this area than double top possibility increase this week will be first time we see real market reaction to fed jackson hole speech last year priced failed from 61% fib level when it hit that area first time
Short
by Sangam-Agarwal
Dollar Index Breakdown - Is the Decline Set to Continue? 🤔📉 Dollar Index Breakdown - Is the Decline Set to Continue? 🧐💵 Hey traders, it's time to revisit the Dollar Index (DXY)! We've had some fantastic trading opportunities in the past, especially with the short on USD/JPY, and now, things are getting even more interesting. Despite the Federal Reserve holding off on rate cuts for now, the anticipation is building. Rate cuts seem to be on the horizon, which could have significant implications for the dollar's strength. But as always, I follow the charts, and they’re signaling something big. 🔍 Key Insights: The 100.97 level is shaping up as new resistance for the DXY. We could see a drop below the 100 mark, with a target range between 94.63 and 92.9. Global factors, such as the BRICS nations' efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar, along with geopolitical and economic developments, are adding to the bearish sentiment. With less than a 15% chance of intervention in the coming months, I’m eyeing another short on the dollar. Stay tuned, as I’ll be covering EUR/USD and USD/JPY in my next posts. Don’t forget to check out Bitcoin—it’s shaping up to be the most intriguing asset on the market right now! Let me know your thoughts in the comments. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:DXYShort
by FX_Professor
Why is the Canadian Dollar Outperforming Expectations?A Deep Dive into the Unexpected Resilience of the CAD In a landscape marked by economic uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has defied the odds, exhibiting remarkable resilience. This unexpected strength is a result of a complex interplay of factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market dynamics, and global commodity trends. The Federal Reserve's Pivotal Role The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy has been a key driver of the CAD's rally. The Fed's hints at potential rate cuts, especially in response to a weakening labor market, have weakened the U.S. dollar, boosting the appeal of other G10 currencies, including the CAD. This has created a favorable environment for the Canadian dollar, as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives to the U.S. dollar. Short Covering and Positioning Dynamics Another significant factor contributing to the CAD's strength is a wave of short covering. Traders had previously bet against the CAD, anticipating a divergence between the easing cycles of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. However, as the U.S. dollar weakened and the CAD began to rise, these short positions became increasingly unsustainable. Traders were forced to unwind their bets, adding momentum to the CAD's rally. The Impact of Rising Oil Prices Canada's significant oil exports make it particularly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The recent increase in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions, has provided a further boost to the CAD. As a major oil producer, Canada benefits from higher oil prices, which can lead to increased exports and a stronger currency. Assessing the Risks and Challenges While the CAD's rally has been impressive, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could undermine its momentum. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts, although expected, could narrow yield differentials and put pressure on the CAD. Additionally, ongoing global uncertainties and subdued risk appetite could limit the loonie's upside potential. Key Data to Watch Several key data releases will be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Canada's GDP data will provide insights into the health of the Canadian economy and could influence the Bank of Canada's policy trajectory. Meanwhile, U.S. economic reports, such as PCE, will be watched for potential shifts that could affect the USD/CAD exchange rate. Conclusion The Canadian dollar's unexpected resilience is a testament to its strength in a challenging economic environment. While the current momentum is positive, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor key economic indicators. By understanding the underlying factors driving the CAD's rally and assessing the potential risks, investors can make informed decisions about their currency exposure.
Short
by signalmastermind
Will EU CPI support a quick rebound of DXY?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near its lowest in over a year but downside momentum is fading as markets have already priced in Sep easing. - A short-term rebound is possible if the EU CPI continues its downward trend this week. Technical theme: - DXY formed a small double-bottom pattern around 100.50 in the 4-hour chart and bounced up to retest its neckline, which is confluence with EMA21, indicating a potential trend shift. - If DXY closes above its neckline around 100.90, the index may retrace further to retest the previous swing high around 101.60. - Conversely, DXY may retest the bottoms again if it closes below 100.80.
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
XAUUSD 26/8/24After calling another all-time high on gold last week, we were expecting more upside from this pair. Now, the one thing that shifts us toward a sell-side bias is the fact that we broke the last significant structural low that led to the new high. This indicates that a pullback is in progress, but with liquidity building above the significant high, the probability of further upside remains the most likely scenario. With this in mind, the level below the current price, where we reacted last week, is where we expect the price to come down and interact again. We also have a demand area below. If the price drops into this area, I will look for longs back toward the highs, potentially creating another new all-time high for gold. However, if we break below the trajectory level we’ve identified and pass the demand area we've marked, we’ll anticipate a deeper pullback, similar to what we projected on EUR/USD. Using the same principles here, we have two points of interaction for potential upside moves, but for sell-side moves, we don’t yet have any areas to reference. If the price drops lower, new areas will be left behind, and we can begin to consider them. Until then, we are focusing solely on the upside areas. This aligns with our overall bias, supported by the daily timeframe, which is showing very strong moves to the upside. We do not expect this to change abruptly. Trade safely, follow your plan, and stick to your risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
$DXY - Bottom Range Bound BreachedThe Dollar Index TVC:DXY has breached a pretty serious level ; the bottom range bound which has previously acted as strong support for TVC:DXY to bounce. Will this time be the same and this will result in a fake-out? Or will TVC:DXY headed lower, re-visiting pre-pandemic levels? Check out the previous released ideas linked below for more in depth information regarding our journey 'Decisive Move Around the Corner' (line chart) (candlesticks chart) TRADE SAFE NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research before partaking upon any trading activity based solely on this idea.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
DXY Hits Yearly Low: Is a Major Support Test at 100 Coming Next?By reviewing the US Dollar Index chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that last week, the price reached its lowest level in a year, closing at 100.677. Given that the price has dipped below a liquidity pool, we might see an initial positive reaction at the beginning of the week, but I still expect further declines in the Dollar Index overall. Keep in mind that there is a very strong support level ahead for the dollar, which is the psychological level of 100, and we will likely see a significant reaction to this level. We will be providing weekly analyses of the Dollar Index from now on, so be sure to support and follow! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban ((2+4+7+13+15+18+26+36+38+69+87+101+183+209+1000+1002+1000000000+1000000001+ 1000000853)^♾️*69) + 1 !
TVC:DXYShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
GBPUSD - Daily Bullish signsOANDA:GBPUSD has recently passed an important support zone, indicating potential for higher targets. After a clear pullback to the 1.2830 area, the pair is positioned for a further rise. The British Pound has been bolstered by a series of positive economic indicators and political stability. According to recent reports, analysts at Investec have raised their forecast targets for the Pound against the Dollar, driven by a more promising economic outlook and favorable political conditions in the UK. This aligns with the technical setup, where GBPUSD is poised for a continuation of its upward movement following the successful retest of the support zone. Overall, combining the technical and fundamental perspectives suggests a bullish outlook for GBPUSD, with potential for further gains as long as the support zone holds firm.
Long
by Sober_Trading
3
DOLLAR down BITCOIN upThe DOLLAR is the worlds #1 trade and reserve currency #GOLD is the KING of Anti Fiat #Bitcoin is attempting to replace GOLD in the mindshare of people (to a certain extent it has, considering from where it started from just a brief 15 years ago) So observing the major trends of the #DXY is crucial to determine how to place your bets and how much risk you should be taking on. *** The caveat being that the DXY is just measuring the dollar mainly against the Euro and various other major Fiats that become more worthless over the years ... so these decades long gyrations don't actual show you how poorly these #fiat currencies store your value.**** I believe #Crypto is on the cusp of some spectacular returns The #BTC.d will soon reverse You will see #Ethereum and the # altcoins gain some real strength once grayscale has sold down much of it's ETH holdings. The 4 year cycle is back on track ... after running too soon in the cycle. Historically Q4 of a Bitcoin halving year is the start of some explosive up moves. We have been waiting 4 years for this... Do you want to wait another 4 years for 2028 to experience the next Crypto meltup?
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
Could demand for the dollar pick up once more today?The dollar saw strong bids overnight as robust macroeconomic data (unemployment claims and Composite PMI) functioned as bullish catalysts. With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kicking things off at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today, could we see another round of higher demand for the greenback and thus a further a decline in EUR/USD? High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
by FXCM