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EUR/USD Drifts Lower as Dollar ReboundsEUR/USD is struggling to hold onto Thursday’s rebound from the 1.1200 region—its lowest in nearly 10 days—and trades with a slight bearish bias in Friday’s Asian session. The pair is hovering near the mid-1.1300s, down around 0.15% on the day. The US Dollar regained some ground due to renewed safe-haven demand after a federal appeals court reinstated former President Trump’s broad trade tariffs, injecting fresh uncertainty into the markets. However, the dollar’s momentum remains limited by concerns over the US fiscal outlook and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. The euro finds partial support as Trump postponed tariffs on EU imports. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US PCE inflation data, which may influence Fed policy expectations, followed by next Thursday’s ECB meeting for further direction. Resistance is seen at 1.1400, with higher levels at 1.1460 and 1.1500. Support is located at 1.1300, followed by 1.1260 and 1.1210.
by ChartMage
GBP/USD Firms as UK Data Performs WellGBP/USD edged up by 0.25% in Friday’s Asian session, nearing 1.3450, after upbeat UK retail sales and consumer confidence data lifted sentiment. The GfK index rose to -20 in May, beating forecasts, while April retail sales surprised to the upside. However, PMI data showed divergence as manufacturing fell to 45.1 (vs. 46.0 expected), while services ticked up to 50.2 from 49.0. The pound also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar as Treasury yields retreated from 19-month highs. Trump’s budget bill, which includes tax breaks on tips and U.S.-made car loans, passed narrowly and is projected to add $3.8 billion to the deficit. Resistance is at 1.3470, followed by 1.3550 and 1.3700. Key support lies at 1.3250, then 1.3150 and 1.3000.
by ChartMage
Pound Climbs Above $1.336 on Strong UK DataThe British pound rallied past $1.336, reaching a one-week high and inching closer to its April peak of $1.34. The move was fueled by renewed optimism after the UK and EU reached a comprehensive post-Brexit agreement covering energy cooperation, defense partnerships, and fisheries rights through 2038. Supporting the pound further, recent UK data exceeded expectations. GDP rose 0.7% in Q1 and 1.3% annually, easing pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates aggressively. Although rate reductions remain on the table, the strength of the economic rebound gives policymakers more flexibility. Despite some concerns about rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, the upbeat GDP print has helped offset fears of an impending recession. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to weaken following Moody’s credit downgrade, providing additional support to the pound. GBP/USD now faces resistance at 1.3450, with higher targets at 1.3550 and 1.3700. Support is located at 1.3160, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2960.
by ChartMage
GBPUSD Holds Rebound Above 1.32On the back of softer U.S. inflation data and stronger-than-expected UK figures (with GDP at 0.2% vs. 0% expected and claimant count change at 5.2k vs. 22.3k), GBPUSD held above 1.32. Bullish scenario: A clean hold above 1.3350 could push the pair toward 1.3450, with potential for new 2025 highs at 1.3750 and 1.4210, aligning with the highs of 2021. Bearish scenario: A break below 1.32 may bring support levels at 1.3150, 1.3070, and 1.2980 into view. In extreme cases, 1.27 could be tested, aligning with overbought RSI levels last seen in July 2023 and September 2024, and the long-term trendline from 2014–2021. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 16, 2025 GBPUSDU.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as the cost of services fell the most since 2009. The Bureau of Labour Statistics on Thursday released data that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4 per cent in April, down from 2.7 per cent previously. This figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. In addition, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 10 May were 229 thousand, compared to the previous week's 229 thousand (revised from 228 thousand). This value was in line with initial estimates. Swap markets priced in the first Fed rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting and expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year. Some analysts believe policymakers may wait until December. Favourable UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data suggests the UK's economic health is robust, dampening hopes of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE). This, in turn, provides some support for the British pound against the US dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3350, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3550
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
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