Still Bearish on DXYDXY can see some correction to the upside and reach 102.5 or even climb up to 103.5 before September 18, 2024, which, most probably we'll see the first rate cut after a long time.
So be patient and wait for this week's NFP.
Check out my post on June 11 to see how DXY followed our yellow scenario. 😉
Dollar
Silver / U.S. Dollar - Silver about to shine?Hey Traders
We have silver here bounced out of demand zone, I am sorry but we should of been in this set up already from demand zone, unforeseen circumstances this week I have been away from charts, I have had this set up planned for a couple weeks now and my fundamentals line up very well, but no worries we can still get in so I am expecting silver to shine again and I'm looking to buy only. details for set up in the chart.
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This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht - Reversal incoming ???Hey Traders
We have USD/THB here on chart, my weekly fundamentals are telling me we have a potential for a reversal from demand zone, if you follow my charts I am using weekly charts for my analysis and daily chart to zone in on demand or supply to get area more accurate to place our buy or sell limit.
So details are on chart where I am placing buy limit and sl and tp
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Dollar 4hr Analysis1 Day Time frame
Dollar has been bearish for a couple of days how, ever after reaching a major support zone last week, Dollar bounced back from the support and its currently on a minor uptrend
Dollar: 4hr Time frame
When i spotted the double bottom last week, i knew there is a high probability for dollar to rise from this support.
This week, i expect dollar to continue to rise up to the 102.500 key area.Before we may possibly see the bearish continuation or breakout to the upside.
Fundamentally, US FED may likely cut interest rate this month, which will push the price of dollar down
King' s ($DXY) return?In #dollarindex chart, #dxy intends to reclaim the support zone that was already broken. If TVC:DXY succesfully reclaims the zone, then i expect this bullish diamond pattern to play out greatly!. If plays out, all markets - #nasdaq #stocks #crypto will have blood bath in mid term. Not financial advice.
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis.
As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again.
We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel.
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Coffee - Is price going to drop from supply zone of feb 2022???Hey traders coffee is at highs of feb 2022, it does tend to drop in August to September time, and now were at this high commercials are selling coffee and id rather be on there side than retailers who are still buying.
So I am going to sell....
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This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
US30 Buy ZoneStep one
* Market creates a sell structure @ 41169
Step two
* Market breaks through support @ 40953
Step Three
* Market breaks towards low of 40750 and quickly recovers in price action. Rally?
Step 4
*Economic data sends the Dow jones back to the resistance zones in step 1 & 2. Recovers to rally to an all time high of 41,500 or 42,000 and quickly sells.
simple fib zoneduring fed rate hike cycle due strong dollar eurusd was collapsing
since fed rate cut pricing begin after their last 75bps rate hike in 2022
eurusd has retrace 61% from top to bottom , price testing this area again
1.12746 will be a strong resistance level
if price don't breaks this area than double top possibility increase
this week will be first time we see real market reaction to fed jackson hole speech
last year priced failed from 61% fib level when it hit that area first time
Dollar Index Breakdown - Is the Decline Set to Continue? 🤔📉 Dollar Index Breakdown - Is the Decline Set to Continue? 🧐💵
Hey traders, it's time to revisit the Dollar Index (DXY)! We've had some fantastic trading opportunities in the past, especially with the short on USD/JPY, and now, things are getting even more interesting.
Despite the Federal Reserve holding off on rate cuts for now, the anticipation is building. Rate cuts seem to be on the horizon, which could have significant implications for the dollar's strength. But as always, I follow the charts, and they’re signaling something big.
🔍 Key Insights:
The 100.97 level is shaping up as new resistance for the DXY.
We could see a drop below the 100 mark, with a target range between 94.63 and 92.9.
Global factors, such as the BRICS nations' efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar, along with geopolitical and economic developments, are adding to the bearish sentiment.
With less than a 15% chance of intervention in the coming months, I’m eyeing another short on the dollar.
Stay tuned, as I’ll be covering EUR/USD and USD/JPY in my next posts. Don’t forget to check out Bitcoin—it’s shaping up to be the most intriguing asset on the market right now!
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Why is the Canadian Dollar Outperforming Expectations?A Deep Dive into the Unexpected Resilience of the CAD
In a landscape marked by economic uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has defied the odds, exhibiting remarkable resilience. This unexpected strength is a result of a complex interplay of factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market dynamics, and global commodity trends.
The Federal Reserve's Pivotal Role
The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy has been a key driver of the CAD's rally. The Fed's hints at potential rate cuts, especially in response to a weakening labor market, have weakened the U.S. dollar, boosting the appeal of other G10 currencies, including the CAD. This has created a favorable environment for the Canadian dollar, as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives to the U.S. dollar.
Short Covering and Positioning Dynamics
Another significant factor contributing to the CAD's strength is a wave of short covering. Traders had previously bet against the CAD, anticipating a divergence between the easing cycles of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. However, as the U.S. dollar weakened and the CAD began to rise, these short positions became increasingly unsustainable. Traders were forced to unwind their bets, adding momentum to the CAD's rally.
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices
Canada's significant oil exports make it particularly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The recent increase in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions, has provided a further boost to the CAD. As a major oil producer, Canada benefits from higher oil prices, which can lead to increased exports and a stronger currency.
Assessing the Risks and Challenges
While the CAD's rally has been impressive, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could undermine its momentum. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts, although expected, could narrow yield differentials and put pressure on the CAD. Additionally, ongoing global uncertainties and subdued risk appetite could limit the loonie's upside potential.
Key Data to Watch
Several key data releases will be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Canada's GDP data will provide insights into the health of the Canadian economy and could influence the Bank of Canada's policy trajectory. Meanwhile, U.S. economic reports, such as PCE, will be watched for potential shifts that could affect the USD/CAD exchange rate.
Conclusion
The Canadian dollar's unexpected resilience is a testament to its strength in a challenging economic environment. While the current momentum is positive, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor key economic indicators. By understanding the underlying factors driving the CAD's rally and assessing the potential risks, investors can make informed decisions about their currency exposure.
Will EU CPI support a quick rebound of DXY?Macro theme:
- The dollar hovered near its lowest in over a year but downside momentum is fading as markets have already priced in Sep easing.
- A short-term rebound is possible if the EU CPI continues its downward trend this week.
Technical theme:
- DXY formed a small double-bottom pattern around 100.50 in the 4-hour chart and bounced up to retest its neckline, which is confluence with EMA21, indicating a potential trend shift.
- If DXY closes above its neckline around 100.90, the index may retrace further to retest the previous swing high around 101.60.
- Conversely, DXY may retest the bottoms again if it closes below 100.80.
NZDUSD: Very Bullish Pattern 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD formed a bullish flag pattern on an hourly time frame
after a recent strong bullish movement.
The breakout of the resistance of the flag is a strong bullish signal.
It signifies a highly probable bullish trend continuation.
The price may reach 0.6235 / 0.6245 levels soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
XAUUSD 26/8/24After calling another all-time high on gold last week, we were expecting more upside from this pair. Now, the one thing that shifts us toward a sell-side bias is the fact that we broke the last significant structural low that led to the new high. This indicates that a pullback is in progress, but with liquidity building above the significant high, the probability of further upside remains the most likely scenario. With this in mind, the level below the current price, where we reacted last week, is where we expect the price to come down and interact again. We also have a demand area below. If the price drops into this area, I will look for longs back toward the highs, potentially creating another new all-time high for gold. However, if we break below the trajectory level we’ve identified and pass the demand area we've marked, we’ll anticipate a deeper pullback, similar to what we projected on EUR/USD.
Using the same principles here, we have two points of interaction for potential upside moves, but for sell-side moves, we don’t yet have any areas to reference. If the price drops lower, new areas will be left behind, and we can begin to consider them. Until then, we are focusing solely on the upside areas. This aligns with our overall bias, supported by the daily timeframe, which is showing very strong moves to the upside. We do not expect this to change abruptly.
Trade safely, follow your plan, and stick to your risk management.
Dollar Index (DXY): Time to Recover?!
Dollar Index reached a significant daily horizontal structure support.
Its test made a bearish rally stop.
The market formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern on an hourly time frame
and just broke its neckline, leaving a clear bullish clue.
The price may bounce at least to 100.89
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$DXY - Bottom Range Bound BreachedThe Dollar Index TVC:DXY has breached a pretty serious
level ;
the bottom range bound which has previously acted as
strong support for TVC:DXY to bounce.
Will this time be the same and this will result in a fake-out?
Or will TVC:DXY headed lower, re-visiting pre-pandemic levels?
Check out the previous released ideas linked below
for more in depth information regarding our journey
'Decisive Move Around the Corner' (line chart)
(candlesticks chart)
TRADE SAFE
NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research before partaking upon
any trading activity based solely on this idea.
DXY Hits Yearly Low: Is a Major Support Test at 100 Coming Next?By reviewing the US Dollar Index chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that last week, the price reached its lowest level in a year, closing at 100.677. Given that the price has dipped below a liquidity pool, we might see an initial positive reaction at the beginning of the week, but I still expect further declines in the Dollar Index overall. Keep in mind that there is a very strong support level ahead for the dollar, which is the psychological level of 100, and we will likely see a significant reaction to this level. We will be providing weekly analyses of the Dollar Index from now on, so be sure to support and follow!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
((2+4+7+13+15+18+26+36+38+69+87+101+183+209+1000+1002+1000000000+1000000001+ 1000000853)^♾️*69) + 1 !