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Gold analyse 08/05/2024 OANDA:XAUUSD 1/ US Fed's Interest Rate Stance: Neal Kashkari's remarks on maintaining a high interest rate amidst rising inflation could bolster the US dollar 2/ Middle East Tensions: Israel's limited operation in Rafah has stalled the upward momentum of gold prices, indicating a temporary halt in geopolitical concerns 3/ Impact of Interest Rate Uncertainty: Gold prices decline amid uncertainty about central banks' plans to reduce interest rates, with the rise of the dollar further contributing to gold's fall 4/ Global Debt Levels: Record-high global debt levels reaching $315 trillion could potentially raise concerns about economic stability, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold 5/ Central Banks' Gold Purchases: The substantial increase in gold purchases by global central banks, exceeding 1,000 tons in a year, suggests a hedging strategy amid economic uncertainties, potentially reflecting concerns about currency stability 6/ Perception of Central Banks' Confidence: The significant gold acquisitions by central banks could indicate a loss of confidence in traditional currencies, prompting investors to reevaluate their portfolios
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TraderFa9ir
DXY (dollar index) weekly ideaCurrently, the dollar trend indicates a bearish direction, suggesting that pairs I typically trade, such as GU, EU, and gold, may rise. Presently, I anticipate a retracement to occur towards an 8-hour supply zone I've identified, facilitating the continuation of the bearish trajectory. This ideally aligns with my strategy until the price drops to around the 104 level, potentially sparking a bullish rally upwards. At that point, I'll need to seek selling opportunities for my other pairs. The dollar's price action appears clear, and there are still imbalances below that require fulfilment. Have a great trading week guys!
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
USDCHFWe are in a down trend and currently in the corrective phase of the leg. We have not gotten a multi touch confirmation but we got a second touch which is also still valid to use. Price tested the previous high and rejected. Going down into lower time frames. The are 3 bearish soldiers from that rejection which show further market strength. We are in a very corrective ascending channel. We formed another correction (it has been 6-8 hours). Sell Idea also still has kinks so make sure to follow your plan and manage according to your system.
Short
by Mhangwane1
GOLD BUY WEAK NFP It's essential to understand that gold prices are influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic data and central bank policies. Recently, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key indicator of economic health in the United States, came in weaker than expected. This unexpected weakness in job creation has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may be inclined to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth. The correlation between weak economic data, such as a lackluster NFP report, and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can significantly impact gold prices. Here's how: Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the employment landscape of the United States. A weaker-than-expected report suggests sluggish job growth, which can dampen confidence in the economy and raise concerns about future economic performance. Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. In times of economic instability or anticipation of looser monetary policy, investors may flock to gold as a safe haven asset. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Now, let's integrate this understanding into our analysis of gold's current trajectory: Given the recent weak NFP report, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may opt for interest rate cuts to support the economy. This has injected a sense of uncertainty into the market and bolstered demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Consequently, we've seen an upward pressure on gold prices as investors seek refuge from economic volatility. In light of these developments, it's crucial to consider the potential implications for gold's future movements. Any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions will be closely monitored by market participants, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. CONCLUSION: Thats why we have put the buy order right on 2300 levels and a potential take profit on 2330, this is because there is a big resistance level there. Furtermore you can use the TradingView tools horizontal line that mark the support and resistance level which is very convenient. As we navigate these dynamics, it's important to exercise caution and remain vigilant in assessing the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. Market participants should stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
EURUSD - Long Term and Short Term Top Down AnalysisHey guys! Here is a top down analysis on the EURUSD pair. I see a great deal of bullishness currently, but i am convinced this bullishness is to take prices into the 4 hour zone sitting a few pips above the 1 hour liquidity target. If that happens, I will expect to see prices begin to u turn bearish and head in the direction of the 4 hour and daily liquidity for a start, and eventually go all the way down to the monthly and weekly liquidity point. On the whole, the market is sort bullish, up through the current 1 hour liquidity target and through to the 4 hour zone, from where we will expect to see the bears take over the market. This is the most likely perspective on direction with regards to market and price movement on this pair.
by PanzyPips
Yen Wobbles, Gold Gleams: A Stirring in Global Currency MarketsThe foreign exchange market witnessed a tug-of-war this week, with the Japanese yen (JPY) taking center stage. Speculation surrounding potential intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the weakening yen against the US dollar (USD) sent ripples through the currency landscape. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a broad measure of the greenback's strength, dipped, impacting the price of gold, which became more attractive to some buyers. The Yen's Woes: Intervention or Market Forces? The Japanese yen has been on a depreciating streak recently, driven by a widening gap between Japanese and US interest rates. Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance with potential interest rate hikes on the horizon. This disparity makes yen-denominated assets less appealing to investors seeking higher returns, pushing the yen's value down. The recent rumors of intervention suggest that Japanese authorities are concerned about the rapid depreciation of the yen. A weaker yen can be a double-edged sword. While it makes Japanese exports more competitive in the global marketplace, it also pushes up the cost of imported goods, leading to potential inflationary pressures within Japan. Intervention's Effectiveness: A Double-Edged Sword Currency intervention involves a central bank buying or selling its own currency to influence its exchange rate. In this case, buying yen would aim to strengthen it against the dollar. However, the effectiveness of such interventions depends on various factors. • Market Sentiment: If the market heavily anticipates further depreciation, a one-time intervention might have a limited impact. The BOJ would need to signal a sustained commitment to supporting the yen for a more significant effect. • Ammunition: Intervention requires significant financial resources. The BOJ's foreign exchange reserves would play a crucial role in its ability to sustain intervention efforts. The Greenback's Sway: DXY Dips, Gold Gleams The US Dollar Index (DXY) gauges the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of major currencies, including the euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), and others. This week's dip in the DXY indicates a weakening of the US dollar against this basket of currencies. This can be attributed to several factors, including: • Profit-taking: After a period of strength, some investors might be taking profits from their dollar-denominated holdings. • Global Risk Aversion: Increased global uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions or economic concerns can lead investors to seek haven currencies, potentially weakening the dollar. Gold's Allure: A Beneficiary of a Weaker Dollar Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset during times of market volatility or economic uncertainty. When the US dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. This week's dip in the DXY could be contributing to some increased interest in gold. However, gold's price is influenced by various factors beyond the dollar's strength. Interest rates, inflation, and investor sentiment all play a role. Looking Ahead: A Dynamic Landscape The global currency market remains a dynamic environment, and the events of this week highlight how various factors can interact and influence exchange rates. The future direction of the yen and the DXY will depend on a combination of economic data releases, central bank actions, and broader market sentiment. Here are some key factors to watch in the coming days: • BOJ Policy Statements: Any signals from the BOJ regarding potential adjustments to its monetary policy could impact the yen's valuation. • US Economic Data: Upcoming US jobs reports and inflation data can influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting the DXY. • Geopolitical Developments: Global events with significant economic implications can trigger market volatility and impact currency valuations. By staying informed about these developments, market participants can make informed decisions about their currency positions and potentially take advantage of market opportunities.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Attention! Signs That Our Pullback Is Over.Traders, Previously, you know that I had anticipated that our pullback might last a bit longer through May. However, today the charts are showing me that this might not be the case. Let's start with the SPY. Originally, I had predicted a touch of the bottom of the RED channel. Then, based upon my analysis of the dollar, VIX, precious metals, and mega-corp stocks, I thought that it might be possible for SPY to even enter into the orangish-yellow area. Today, the SPY has popped back above the RED channel and is now doing battle with our 50 Day SMA. This is a bullish indicator for sure. If we can beat the 50 day by CoB today, we'll have a fairly good indicator that our pullback may be over. We'll need more indicators to agree of course, but this is a good start. The VIX agrees rn, as it has broken below support and fear continues to drop. The dollar also agrees. Previously, I had anticipated a touch of that 107 level. Nope. The dollar has decided to break down and out of our bearish megaphone pattern early. We knew it was going to happen soon and so we were prepared. I am happy to report the news because with the dollar down and the VIX down you all know what this usually indicates for stocks right? UP. ...And our blow-off top continues into the election months as expected. Then a crash. Of course, we'll need a confirmation candle on the daily for all of the above. If we get that, on we go. Watch all of these today and on Monday into next week. Monday (and next week) will be key as those days will give us the confirmation candle that we need, especially for the VIX and DXY. If they don't continue to break down, that will be our first warning that this was all a big head fake and we'll still have further pullback to weather out. This all influences crypto. That is why it is necessary to track. As always, I'll keep you up to date on these developments.
TVC:VIXLong
by stewdamus
$DXY down, $BTC up - The crazy (but logic) correlationCRYPTOCAP:BTC just printed a "magical" green candle, after a kinda "bearish" upward movement with a lot of divergences. No one was expecting an upward movement like this, and really caught bears and shorters by surprise. The short squeeze here was brutal and a lot of shorters must be in pain. Anyone could be asking themselves, "what the hell just happened?". This is the time where traders blame "manipulation" and "market makers" as the ones who move the market to their interests, with such a, we could say, "irracional" price action. Well... There COULD be an explanation. Historically DXY (The index that measures the strenght of US Dollar in the financial market) have had an inverse correlation to the price of Bitcoin and viceversa. It has some kind of logic, since, if Bitcoin is bought with dollars, then if dollar lose its value, then you need more dollars to buy Bitcoin! simple math, simple logic. We are not sure if the graphs are 100% correlated themselves, but it makes sense! Here you can see that I applied the TVC:DXY graph over CRYPTOCAP:BTC graph, but the TVC:DXY is INVERTED, meaning that every time TVC:DXY went up, you can see it here going down. So you can see now more clearly the direct correlation both have. TVC:DXY just broke a trendline and printed a very strong red candle JUST at the very same time BTC did y massive green candle a liquidated short positions at very important sell zones. It's kind of easy to predict a big movement of any of both, if one of them does a big move at some point, because you can expect the other to do a big move at the same time or some time later. Keep an eye ALWAYS on DXY when you are trading Bitcoin or any crypto. It IS a finantial advice.
OANDA:BTCUSD
by fortune_00
Eur/Usd Ready to massive sell 155 pips!!Based on previous post i talked about how eurusd has broken. the head and shoulder neckline and price is now retresting the neckline has resistance, still the interest rate is neutral which mean dollar will gain liquidity cause of the interest rate differential so we see price respecting the 31.8% fib level which is also in confluence with the POC level of activity volume NOTE; The only thing you have to worry about is NFP news later tomorrow and some news today. make sure you put stop loss and manage your risk. there is small probably it can do a fake out! Follow me for more breakdown
Short
by ShinForex1
DXY Index is Ready to Fill GAP🚀🏃‍♂️The DXY index is moving in the Ascending Channel and seems to have broken the 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($105.88-$104.65) 🔴, and is currently moving in a small Descending Channel and making a pullback to this zone. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY index has succeeded in completing the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) inside the descending channel . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys . 🔔I expect the DXY index to Gp UP to at least the 🔵 GAP($106.613-$106.504) 🔵after breaking the upper line of the descending channel . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If the DXY index can break the lower line of the descending channel, we can expect the DXY index to drop more. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
1