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Will geopolitical tension support oil prices? Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply. Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport. At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets. USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel. If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel. On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DynamicCapital-FX
Retest Complete. Dollar Should Continue Down Again.There's that retest to the underside of my pink line that I was previously expecting. As you all know from last weeks video, I was a bit surprised we didn't get it at the time I was making the video. Well, better late than never. This is a perfect retest. Though, the dollar could hover on the underside for a few more days, I expect that by mid-October you'll see the trend continuation down as we head for that very important, very old trend line coming all the way back from Orwell's 1984. Blow-off top in the U.S. stock market should continue until then. If so, crypto will follow.
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
THE KOG REPORT - NFP THE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Simple one for this NFP as we’re going to be more of the observer rather than the trader unless again, we get those extreme levels that we want. Key level here is 2670 which was our bias level earlier in the week, that is also now a resistance being attempting to break open. For that reason, we will wait to see if it breaks and look higher at the levels of 2675 and then step by step upwards following the path. We’ll be looking at the extreme level of 2710-20 for the exhaustion and the RIP to attempt the short trade. On the flip, downside risk on the break of 2650 key level should take us in to the order region 2630-35 where we may get a slight reaction in price, but potentially only for the scalp. Breaking this level opens the door and we won’t be looking to long again until we target 2600-10. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Don’t be misled by the initial NFP reactionAll the attention is on the upcoming release of US jobs report, which is critical for the Fed’s outlook on interest rate rates. But with so much going on with regards to the Middle East and oil prices, and given the weekend risk, the initial NFP-related market reaction may not hold into the close, especially if the data turns out to a bit weaker than expected. NFP expectations: What to look out for As we look towards the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expectations are that the US economy has added around 147,000 jobs in September, a slight improvement from the 142,000 we saw in the previous month. Nothing earth-shattering here but do watch out for revisions for the prior months. The unemployment rate is projected to stay steady at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% y/y for the second month in a row with a projected month-over-month reading of +0.3%. If these numbers hold, it’s a sign that the labour market remains surprisingly resilient, and that might just embolden the Fed to keep its foot on the brake when it comes to deciding the size of their interest rate cuts. After all, the Fed has made it clear: if the economy stays strong and inflation doesn’t cool down, they’re going to ease off on loosening monetary policy slowly. How will the US dollar, gold and indices react? A solid jobs report could trigger a bullish reaction for the US dollar, especially if it takes some of the wind out of the sails for those hoping for another 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. The logic is simple: a healthy labour market reduces the need for aggressive rate cuts, making the dollar more attractive to traders. On the other hand, if the NFP report disappoints, then this could trigger a potential recovery in pairs such as EUR/USD, and give gold another boost. Once the NFP dust settles, the focus will return to geopolitics and the situation in the Middle East. With the markets obviously closed during the weekend, oil, index futures and the dollar pairs could all create a gap at the Asian open Monday should something big happen between Israel and Iran on Saturday or Sunday. Given this risk, we could see the dollar finding renewed support later, even if NFP misses slightly. By the same token, indices may be unable to hold onto much of their potential NFP-related gains. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 4, 2024 EURUSDAn event to look out for today: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate EURUSD: EUR/USD remains on the defensive near 1.1030 on the back of a stronger US dollar during the early Asian session on Friday. Cautious market sentiment ahead of key US economic data is putting pressure on the major pair. All eyes will be on the release of US employment data due for release today. The US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Thursday provided some support to the US Dollar (USD). The services PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August, beating the market forecast of 51.7, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week ended 28 September. The figure followed the previous week's data of 219,000 (revised from 218,000) and was worse than market expectations of 220,000. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that policymakers are likely to stick to their policy of cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) going forward. Markets have priced the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at nearly 68.9%, while the probability of a 50 bps rate cut is 31.1%, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday may provide some hints on how the US interest rate will move. The US economy is estimated to have added 140,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. If the employment report is weaker than expected, it could prompt the central bank to consider deeper rate cuts, which would put pressure on the US dollar. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers continue to hint that another rate cut could be in the near future. This, in turn, could weaken the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar. Kyle Chapman, currency analyst at Ballinger Group, said, ‘Policy is too tight given the challenging macroeconomic environment and a move to successive rate cuts seems self-evident now that disinflation is in its late stages.’ Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Sell orders from the current price level
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
US Dollar Index Climbs to 101.00 as Powell Signals Rate CutsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen close to the 101.00 level following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that future rate cuts would be implemented gradually. This rise comes as no surprise, as the DXY has rebounded from a key demand area that was previously identified. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bearish on the US Dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—have shifted toward long positions, further supporting the currency's strength. This bullish sentiment in the US Dollar is reinforced by the fundamental backdrop. Today, the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings reports could further fuel the DXY’s upward momentum. A positive outcome from these key economic indicators would indicate continued resilience in the US economy, bolstering expectations for the Fed to maintain its gradual approach to rate adjustments, which in turn supports the USD. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector, and a strong reading would reflect ongoing economic expansion, likely pushing the DXY higher. Similarly, the JOLTS Job Openings data provides insights into labor market strength, and a robust figure would further cement the case for a stronger US Dollar. Technically, the DXY’s recovery from the demand area, combined with the shift in institutional positioning, points to a sustained bullish outlook for the US Dollar. With smart money moving to the long side and retailers still bearish, the DXY could continue its climb, especially if today's economic data aligns with market expectations. In conclusion, the US Dollar Index is experiencing a bullish run following Powell’s comments on gradual rate cuts, and the momentum is likely to be reinforced by positive ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data. As retail traders remain bearish and institutional investors shift toward the long side, the DXY could see further gains in the near term, particularly if economic data supports the Fed’s cautious but optimistic outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
7
EURUSD: Dollar going stronger than EuroThe orange circle, shows the exact moment where, at the same time, ICEUS:DX1! crossed over CME:6E1! and the 200-sma was in the middle of this crossover. The Dollar futures are gaining stregth while on the other hand, Euro futures are falling in price. After the crossover, a strong bearish candle cross the support, the price remain in congestion with yesterday price closing at 1.10533. Today the price is already below a support during early september and a resistance in the week after. Indicators: Besides the 200sma. The RSI is projecting to go overbought or at least close, while DMI- is increasing the direction and ADX is confirming the trend strength.
Short
by AFCapital21
USDJPY: Important Support & Resistance Levels 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Here is my latest structure analysis and important support and resistance levels to pay close attention to on USDJPY. Resistance 1: 146.50 - 147.35 area Resistance 2: 149.30 - 149.40 area Support 1: 141.64 - 142.20 area Support 2: 139.60 - 140.60 area From a current perspective, probabilities are high that the pair will continue growing, at least to Resistance 1. After its test, consider that for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
DXY H8 - Long SignalDXY H8 There isn't too much to report on here for the likes of the dollar index, we have seen a bullish start to the week so far which was as expected, but we are still very much in the same range which trades between 100.200 price and 101.000 price, we really need to see a break north of this 101 level. A break of 101.000 price, and subsequent surge towards 101.800 to 102.000 price is the next goal. Good start to the week thus far. Lets see if we can start to see these setups we have been following unfold a little more in our favour!
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
EURUSD H4 - Short setupEURUSD H4 Our sell zone here on EURUSD is playing out well 1.12 seems to be the handle which is holding as effective resistance. 3 attempts to break higher, 3 time resistance has held and see a dump of around 60-70 points, with just 10-15 points of movement around the 1.12 stoploss area. This 60-70 point range is certainly an area and range we can follow. Ultimately, out target is 1.10, but we may see price bounce from current price like we have on the last few occassions.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
DXY doing Cycle Wave 2, now inside the Wave C about to break SupHello everyone, In this scenario the DXY has finished the Wave Cycle Wave 1, with 5 Waves (Ending in September 2022), and now it is doing the Wave 2. Inside the Wave 2, we encounter ourselves inside the Wave C already. The Wave C is about to break the 100 support area, and targeting at least 92 target. The 92 target is the minimum move that it needs to perform, since it will be the same lenght as the Wave A. Knowing this, we expect to see other Assets rise as the Dólar falls in the upcoming months
TVC:DXYShort
by xReve