xauusd ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT REPORTADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
FORECAST 173K
PREVIOUS 192K
ACTUAL 152K
the data released is less than forecast and also less than previous report, which is too much bearish for dollar.
its impact may show up after the us market is opened
Dollar
The Overlooked Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on Inflation Everyone talks about higher CPI when crude is up, but ignores it when prices drop.
Right now, lower crude oil is actually helping to soften inflation and weaken the dollar.
Keep an eye on the neckline around $70—but it might not be easy to break.
XAUUSD H4 - Long SignalXAUUSD H4
Here is the outlook for XAUUSD as it stands, we are firm believers in trading what you see. We can see the DXY took a slight bounce from that 104.000 mark and therefore the DXY is still in bullish demand. That being said, $2330/oz has been our previous area of support for a while now, and we hold our ground until it breaks.
Upon a potential break, we can simply change our bias and start trading in line with the new breakout trend (should it sustain). A simple motto we go by, trade what you see and don't fix it unless it's broken. This is the staple of a zone trading strategy. Learn to love your losses when they can occur, because these losses often lead the a monster of a reversal trade.
Dollar Index (DXY): Time For Pullback?!
Dollar Index looks quite oversold after a yesterday's bearish movement.
The price reached a key horizontal support and formed a double bottom pattern on that.
I think that we may see a pullback today at least to 103.9
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dollar Index to fall towards 101, 100Dollar index has been weak on recent weeks and this move is likely to continue. I expect XETR:DAX to continue falling towards it's previous support and resistance levels at around 102, 101 then 100
If this move happens then it is good news for pairs like FX:EURUSD and FX:GBPUSD as they are all set to drift north. Fundamentally news have been against the dollar recently. On monday 3rd we had US ISM Manufacturing figures which came lower than expected. Today 4thmay24 their is JOLTS Job opening report which is also expected to be lower and this will be a negative driver for $dax.
Always do your own research before pulling and shots .
Use a hard stop loss and good luck. Check my socials and follow for updates
Yields selling off, US Dollar weakThe 2Yr Yield has cratered since our last post.
As has the 10 Yr #yield $TNX.
The pattern breaking, whichever direction, will give us an indication of the likelier direction that #equities will go.
Is the US #Dollar giving us an idea?!?!?!
You'd think CRYPTOCAP:BTC and AMEX:GLD would be moving better with the selloff of $DXY.
Saudi watch...
The Dollar Remains On TrackThe dollar is right on its projected path as expected. Inflation has prevented the Fed from lowering rates at least once. Can we expect a rate drop before the end of the year?
My guess is that even with a bit of inflation showing the Fed will drop rates at least once. There are several reasons for my conclusion here not least of which are weakening economic indications which are too numerous to list for the purposes of this post but some of which are the collapsing car market, cc default rates exploding, commercial real estate vacancies still increasing, and many other factors and lead indicators.
There is also the fact that the Fed was initially expected to drop rates 3 times in 2024. Failing to drop at least once before the end of the year would have psychological ramifications on the market that potentially could be disastrous.
And finally, there is the fun fact that historically the Fed has always adjusted rates in an election year. There is only one exception to this rule …2012. Based upon this statistic alone we can see that the probability of a rate adjustment this year is high. And we know that if there is an adjustment, it will almost certainly be to the downside as that is what has been expected all along. Any anomaly to expectations would cause chaos and catastrophe in the markets.
All this being said we can then continue to expect the dollar to travel its expected pathway …down. 103.5 is the next support. Below that is that pink ascending trendline around 102 and rising.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 14 - US10Y - (3rd June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing US10Y, starting from the 3-Month chart.
- R2F
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 13 - AUDNZD - (3rd June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing AUDNZD, starting from the 12-Month chart.
- R2F
EURUSD: Your Support & Resistance Levels For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important key levels to focus on EURUSD next week.
Resistance 1: 1.0880 - 1.0896 area
Resistance 2: 1.0921 - 1.0942 area
Resistance 3: 1.0947 - 1.0982 area
Support 1: 1.0788 - 1.0800 area
Support 2: 1.0723 - 1.0748 area
Support 3: 1.0649 - 1.0666 area
Support 4: 1.0600 - 1.0619 area
Consider these structure for pullback/breakout trading.
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DXY POTENTIAL REVERSAL WITH A BREAKOUTDXY is currently trading within an expanding channel. A potential reversal could occur if the price manages to break out bullishly from this structure and surpass the identified consolidation zone. However, if this breakout does not happen as anticipated, we might see a further decline or an extended period of consolidation.
EURUSD TURTLE SOUP SETUP SHORT - BEFORE INTEREST RATE CUTHi. I am bearish on EURUSD now as it reached the price I was interested to open short.
Interest Rate cut for EUR is coming in June, the dollar should start reversing around now.
CFTC reported recently more commercial shorts compared to longs (attached).
Stop loss on chart.
Target 1: 1.081
Final target on retest of flip zone.
Dollar Index (DXY): Pullback From Key Level
Dollar Index nicely respected a key daily horizontal resistance.
I see a double top formation on an hourly time frame
and a confirmed violation of its neckline.
I think that the market may drop at least to 104.43 before the news.
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USDCHF: Your Trading Plan Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇭
USDCHF is currently testing a key daily horizontal support.
To buy this structure with a confirmation, pay attention
to an expanding wedge pattern on a 4H time frame.
Your confirmation to buy the pair will be a bullish breakout
of the resistance line of the wedge.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 0.9155 then.
If the price drops below the underlined green area,
the setup will become invalid.
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XAUUSD recent updatexauusd is moving so deep down after various FED talks
Gold slumps amid strong US Dollar, high US Treasury yields
Gold prices slump on Wednesday amid rising US Treasury yields, boosting demand for the Greenback due to hawkish comments by a Federal Reserve (Fed) official.
our recent analysis founds 2330-2328 is a strong support area and 2344 act as major pivot due to simple moving average passing through the point and mayor retracement from that area many times yesterday.
above 2344 its a buy
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EurUsd Lower ahead of Next weeks Eur Rate Cuts?Usd strength! After those talks of Eur rate cuts next week by Euro central bankers. Lower rates means less monies flow into the Eurozone for the Carry trade. USD is taking advantage of this and strengthening. Look at that shooting star candle on the Daily timeframe. What a pre-cursor to a massive selloff on the Eur today. The price action was giving us hints as to what would eventually occur. If you go look at our previous posts from early in the week , we talked about the clean range to the downisde on EU and bam we just filled the range down to 1.08147 Daily level and have exceeded it by another 20 pips. We have our next key level at 1.0768 Daily support level. I'm anticpating more downside these next sessions but we may observe some shakeout volatility first. Safe trading
GOLD is gaining momentum for sell!!!Based on higher time frame analysis, it is observed that Gold is struggling to move higher. It is now caught in a downward spiral as it closes below the EMA's and is slowly gaining momentum in lower timeframes like M15.
I believe we might experience a significant downward movement in the market.
Trade at your own risk!! this is not a signal service but my analysis on the market
NOTE: High alert new for FOMC so be careful
Stop Loss =2370
Profit Target = 2292
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