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Dollar Loses Shine as US Economy Shows Signs of CoolingThe tide may be turning for the US dollar. After a period of strength, investors are growing less optimistic about the greenback as recent economic data suggests a slowdown in the US economy. This shift in sentiment is reflected in positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which shows a net short position on the dollar for the first time in six weeks. Signs of a Cooling US Economy Several factors are contributing to the cooling sentiment on the dollar. Recent economic reports have indicated a potential slowdown in the US. Growth may be decelerating after a strong 2023, with factors like inflation and rising interest rates potentially impacting consumer spending and business investment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has embarked on a series of interest rate hikes to combat inflation. While these hikes are intended to curb inflation, they can also have a dampening effect on economic activity. Businesses may be hesitant to borrow and invest, and consumers may tighten their belts as borrowing costs rise. CFTC Data Reveals Shift in Investor Positioning The CFTC data provides valuable insights into investor sentiment on the foreign exchange market. The data tracks the net long or short positions held by leveraged funds, which include hedge funds and other large speculators, and asset managers. According to the latest CFTC data, leveraged funds still held some net long positions on the dollar last week. However, this bullishness was outweighed by a significant increase in net short positions held by asset managers. This shift in positioning resulted in a combined net short position of $5.36 billion as of May 21st, compared to a net long position of $2.02 billion just a week earlier. Market Implications of the Dollar's Decline A weaker dollar can have several implications for the global economy. It can make US exports more competitive, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers. Conversely, imports into the US become more expensive. This can potentially lead to higher inflation in the US as the cost of imported goods increases. A weaker dollar can also impact other currencies. If investors lose confidence in the US economy, they may seek refuge in other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc. This could lead to a strengthening of these currencies relative to the dollar. The Road Ahead: Volatility and Data Dependence Analysts expect currency positioning to remain volatile in the near term. The direction of the dollar will likely hinge on incoming US economic data. Strong economic data could reignite bullish sentiment on the dollar, while further signs of a slowdown could exacerbate the recent decline. The FOMC's monetary policy decisions will also be closely watched. If the Fed signals a more aggressive pace of rate hikes to combat inflation, the dollar could find support. However, if the Fed slows down the pace of hikes or even starts cutting rates in the future, as some analysts predict, the dollar could weaken further. Conclusion The recent decline in bullish sentiment on the dollar reflects growing concerns about the health of the US economy. The CFTC data highlights a shift in investor positioning, with a net short position emerging for the first time in six weeks. The future direction of the dollar remains uncertain and will depend on the trajectory of the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
XAUUSD - 1H Continuation of FallStops and liquidity have been hunted above the resistance zone, suggesting that gold (XAUUSD) can continue its downward trajectory towards the $2315 level. The chart shows a bullish trendline, and a break below this trendline will serve as a confirmation for initiating sell positions. This break would indicate a shift in market sentiment, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Traders should watch for this trendline crossing as a key signal for entering short trades, targeting the identified support level at $2315. Additionally, the previous three bullish legs used the $2310 zone as the base, adding further significance to this support area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Sober_Trading
xauusd analysis for the week 27/52024- 31/07/2024the last week we have witnessed the biggest fall in a week in last 5 months. what will be going to happen in the coming week is much anticipated thing for traders. our viewpoint is there will be an upward correction in the trend and the retracement zone for the market is from 2327-2333 area and the growing geopolitical tension in the middle east will also be an add on factor for this correction. if the market goes below 2321 area of support then we can see a downfall till 2275 extended up to 2253. bullish targets: 2343 2355 2363 2376 like share and follow us post your comments to enlighten us with your view points
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
XAU/USD Intra Day/Week Play - 27/05/2024With gold being at all time highs our analysis on this week's play was carried out on the Daily and 4hr to set a respectable tone to price action and what we anticipate seeing over the coming day(s) / week. On the daily we see that price has finally exhaused itself to complete its upward move to the extreme supply zone of 2,440.372 and has now started to retrace back to key demand levels leaving behind it some imbalances on the daily and 4 hour. Overall the ema's all support a bullish direction to which I believe we will continur but not before tapping into the unmitigated bullish order block at 2,317.065 and then heading upwards to seek out the extreme supply zone levels of 2,432.198 This all supports the inverse corrolation we anticipate happening with the greenback on this week's analysis also which can be seen below. We are aware that CPI and Unemployment claums will greatly impact this technical analysis so it will be interesting to see how this week plays out. Let me know your thoughts on this. Hope you have a great week ahead. Happy Trading. The FX Capital Club.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FXCapitalClub
DXY (Dollar) Intra Day/Week Play - 27/05/2024On the monthly we can see that the dollar is on aan upward trend after breaking outu of it's previous range at 88.528 which has now become a key level of support. We have seen this extention continue to levels 113.016 and then returned back to create a range between 101.421 (lows) and 107.424 (highs) Price action is suggested to continue ranging to complete distributiob before heading to the downside to test the POC levels of 99.885 and possibly even further to 94.510 to test the bullish order block which has yet to be mitigated before continuing back on the upward trend. On the Weekly we can get a clearer picture of this range and noticeably see that supply side liquidity at 106.726 has been swept which futher confirms our assumption that price will continie to the downside to the POC levels at 99.955 On the 4 hour we are able to get an even cleared picture with some assumptions being made that will test the 105.051 levels to form a bearish head and shoulders pattern and then heading down to test support level of 104.043 as part of a change of character, only to retract back to retest previous support at 104.380 and continue to he downside to reach our POI at 102.517. Taking all these price movements into consideration it is very likely that we'll see the greenback test all these levels to head back int the demand zone area of 100.500 - 102.000 over the coming week. Let me know what you guys think. Hope you have a great week ahead. Happy Trading.
TVC:DXY
by FXCapitalClub
xauusd weekly reviewxauusd faced the largest one week drop in last 5 months. the exact reason for this can be elicited as many. 1) soon there will be no change in interest rate of us dollar and its decided as it is may happen by september not in june 2) strong us job data 3) lot of positive economic news from usa which powered dollar 4) in last two months xauusd was over brought and now a correction is happening in that price. 5) market manipulation. What you feel please comment us
OANDA:XAUUSD
by realmillionairefx
2
DXY Index is Ready to Pump by 🌄Morning Candlestick Pattern🌄🏃‍♂️DXY Index is moving near the 🟢 Support zone($104.27-$103.90) 🟢, and 200_SMA(Daily) and 100_SMA(Daily) , and the lower line of the ascending channel . 💡Also, the Morning Candlestick Pattern is clearly visible. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY Index has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) in the support zone . 🔔I expect the DXY Index to rise to at least the Resistance line . U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
5
XAGUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello all, I have a long trade possibility forming on XAGUSD. Basically, my draw on price is the Relative Equal Highs residing above. My POI for taking a trade is where the BISI 2D is. Since we have a SIBI 2D, we should see lower prices to this POI. If price does not reach my POI before trading higher, I would like to see a clean 2D close above the SIBI 2D. Preferably I see price start to halt and create a consolidation at my POI. What I DON'T want to see if price blast right through it and have a 2D candle close below the BISI. Silver is lagging behind Gold, so I am using that to back up my bias. Based on my proprietary analysis, price SHOULD go to the current target, if not at my POI, then still soon. Of course, we make allowance for wicks, and I will still hold my POI valid should any 2D candle not close below the BISD 2D and no other SIBI 2D be created, at least without an instant rejection through it in the next 2D candle. Overall, simple and clean by the looks of it. We can always go to the lower timeframes to refine the narrative and frame some trades. Have a good weekend! - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by Road_2_Funded
Here's What You Can Expect On Wall Street & In The Crypto SpaceThere are no surprises with the U.S. dollar, vix, gold, precious metals, commodities, and stocks. Everything is right on track. We are nearing our SPY blow-off top target of 570-600, but we have some time to hit that before the U.S. election charades and the future recession. We'll review these things and then focus on what price action will look like in the coming weeks for the crypto space. Plus, I have added an extra video for my members in which I'll review the current altcoin entries we are in. I'll let you know clearly what my sentiment and strategy is for trading these coins, a few of which have 3-4x targets! Quickly, I believe our local low in the altcoin space is in and we are going to pop soon. Some coins will fare much better than others. I want you in those coins. Let's go!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
EURUSD - Bullish and Bearish at the Same TimeOn the 1 hour, we see price in a current Bullish bias. This is the same bias on the 4 hour chart. But there is a strong likelihood that this Bullishness might not hold for much longer. On the Daily chart, we see the price as being in a bearish swing. Prices had no doubt gone above the protected high last week, but unfortunately did not close above the protected high. The price went above and came back to close the daily candles below the protected high. We will therefore treat such price movement as a spike while holding on to the current bearish perspective on the daily chart. What is my Trade Perspective...? Because i trade the lower timeframes from off the 1 hour setup, i will still hold on the bullish perspective off of the 1 hour chart. I will look to monitor price movement and follow through as it meets each of every condntion of my Bullish trade setup. It is only when the bullishness of the 1 hour chart is invalidated and I see a trend shift on the 1 hour from Bullish to Bearish, that I will begin to consider the Bearish perspective. And if that happens, we will be looking to trade bearish, all the way to the Daily liquidity target.
by PanzyPips