DXY MELTDOWNThe enduring downward trajectory of the USD appears poised to persist in the coming years and even decades. With a staggering $33 trillion debt load that seems insurmountable, coupled with dwindling confidence from international partners who are divesting from the USD, the currency faces significant headwinds. The inevitable repatriation of these dollars to the Federal Reserve, the United States' central bank, exacerbates the downward pressure.
Forecasts indicate that the DXY, reflective of this trend, is likely to dip below $100 and remain there for an extended period. Our analysis underscores this outlook not only for the DXY but also for the USD's performance against other major currencies and assets.
Dollar
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 16th February 2024 1h chart– Thursday Daily candle closed Bullish forming Daily Support around 1992.400. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2008.400 targeting previous Daily Support formed on 25th January 2024 at 2014.200 and the previous 4h Support formed on 12th February 2024 at 2019.200. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2000.100 targeting previous 1h Resistance formed around 1995.000 and recent 4h Support around 1989.100. Despite the Monthly and Weekly candles trending Bearish I will be keeping an eye on price movement around 2004 (Weekly Support) so we might see Bullish candle Friday which will allow Weekly to close above Weekly Support.
USDCHF: Overbought Market & Pullback 🇺🇸🇨🇭
After an impulsive bullish movement,
USDCHF stopped, approaching a key daily horizontal resistance.
The price formed a double top formation on that on a 4H time frame
and violated its neckline during the NY session yesterday.
Looks like the pair became too overbought.
I expect a retracement to 0.8823
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XAUUSD Technical Analysis 15th February 2015 1h chart– Wednesday Daily candle closed weak Bearish at 1992.300 rejecting the 1984s area as price ranges on the Hourly timeframe. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 1996.200 targeting previous Weekly Low formed on 11th December 2023 around 2004.200 and previous 1h Support formed this Monday at 2012.000. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 1987.200 targeting recent 4h Support at 1982.000 and Hourly Support at 1974.800. High Impact News event ahead of the New York session for the US Dollar which may allow price to break out of the recent Hourly range.
Bitcoin Crash or Major rally?Bitcoin is into mega resistance right as the dollar has broken out.
Is BTC going to get snuffed at 50K into a weekly resistance pivot?
Is the halving to strong and going to push BTC to 100k?
Dissecting the technical, it appears Bitcoin could be vulnerable in the near term.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 14th February 2024 1h chart– Monday Daily candle closed extremely Bearish at 1993.100 filling the previous Monthly Low. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 1998.100 to retest previous Daily Support formed on 18th January 2024 around 2005.800 and 1h previous Support formed at 2012.800. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 1990.000 targeting 4h previous Resistance around 1984.700 and Daily Support formed on 13th December 2023 at 1978.800.
EURUSD: Consolidation & Your Trading Plan 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD is currently trading within a narrow horizontal range on a daily
and stuck between 2 daily horizontal structures.
If the price breaks and closes above 1.0817 resistance,
we will expect a bullish continuation at least to 1.087.
If the price breaks and closes below 1.0723 support,
a bearish movement will be anticipated to 1.067
The US inflation data will most likely be the catalyst.
Patiently wait for a breakout and the follow the market.
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XAUUSD Technical Analysis 13th February 2024 1h chart– Monday Daily candle closed weak Bearish within 2020 level as price ranged within 4h timeframe. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2026.500 targeting 1h Resistance (2033.000) and 4h Strong Resistance (2037.600) same Buys ideas we’ve had on the previous Analysis. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2017.700 targeting 1h Support (2012.700) and retesting Daily Support formed on Thursday 19th January around 2006.100. We have CPI data during the New York session for the US Dollar which may bring some volatility to the market.
DXY new target?My view for the next week(s) for DXY.
FUNDAMENTALS:
Following the new trend started in 2024 and displayed in January and February, DXY infact did a new 4h and daily break of structure to the upside, giving a clear shift in sentiment. The fast devaluation of dollar regarding the early cuts is being rejected and in the last FOMC and Powell interview he made very clear that jobs are strong and inflation too. They are aiming for a soft landing and they might get it. If this next CPI on Tuesday is as expected or green, that would give more confirmation for the FED to do a soft landing and cut slowly.
If the FED cuts slow the rates, it would give more strength to the dollar and could give us a very strong bullish leg.
TECHNICALS:
Monthly is still bullish.
Weekly is still bullish.
Daily is still bullish.
It did a new HH on Daily and 4h. It went to the 0.361 fibo area and got rejected as its first test. Im expecting a quick dive to gather liquidity and fill some gaps in the 103.700 - 103.450 area which generates confluence with Weekly 0.5 fibo and with 0.61 and 0.70 fibo in this mini leg on the 4h, is also the last breakout zone.
If we analyze in Wyckoff method, the spring that generated the previous to the breakout is giving us a retest which is a nice area to genearte a re-accumulation. This could also be a very
explosive move because it will align with CPI news.
VIEW:
Expecting a liquidity sweep at 104.150-200 in Asia on Sunday. Followed by a powerful move to the downside to reach the accumulation area before CPI on Tuesday. The target is going to be 0.286 fibo in the weekly with the -0.272 extension of this mini leg. I expect to reach it by Thursday/Friday morning.
Good luck to all!
DXY Potential Continuation to upsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 103.500 zone, DXY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 103.500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCHF: Trading Plan Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇭
I posted earlier a very bullish forecast for USDCHF.
Now, I am patiently monitoring a 4H time frame on USDCHF to buy the pair with confirmation.
I see a horizontal trading range.
Our bullish signal will be a 4H candle close above a resistance of the range.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated then.
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SELL TRADE SETUP ON GBPUSDHey Traders,
Check this analysis out on GBPUSD. The pair had been ranging for quite some time before it broke below the support, followed by an actual smooth pullback.
Provided that the price remains below the support, I will look for a nice short trade.
Keep a close tab on this one.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 12th February 2024 1h chart– Previous Weekly candle closed Bearish above recent Weekly Support, forming new Weekly Resistance around 2040s. Friday Daily candle closed Bearish. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2027.500 targeting recent 1h Resistance (2033.000) and 4h strong Resistance (2037.600), there could be a potential retest of recent Weekly Resistance around 2040s. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2020.400 targeting 4h Support (2015.800) and next 4h strong Support (2009.200).