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GBP/USD Firms as UK Data Performs WellGBP/USD edged up by 0.25% in Friday’s Asian session, nearing 1.3450, after upbeat UK retail sales and consumer confidence data lifted sentiment. The GfK index rose to -20 in May, beating forecasts, while April retail sales surprised to the upside. However, PMI data showed divergence as manufacturing fell to 45.1 (vs. 46.0 expected), while services ticked up to 50.2 from 49.0. The pound also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar as Treasury yields retreated from 19-month highs. Trump’s budget bill, which includes tax breaks on tips and U.S.-made car loans, passed narrowly and is projected to add $3.8 billion to the deficit. Resistance is at 1.3470, followed by 1.3550 and 1.3700. Key support lies at 1.3250, then 1.3150 and 1.3000.
by ChartMage
Pound Climbs Above $1.336 on Strong UK DataThe British pound rallied past $1.336, reaching a one-week high and inching closer to its April peak of $1.34. The move was fueled by renewed optimism after the UK and EU reached a comprehensive post-Brexit agreement covering energy cooperation, defense partnerships, and fisheries rights through 2038. Supporting the pound further, recent UK data exceeded expectations. GDP rose 0.7% in Q1 and 1.3% annually, easing pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates aggressively. Although rate reductions remain on the table, the strength of the economic rebound gives policymakers more flexibility. Despite some concerns about rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, the upbeat GDP print has helped offset fears of an impending recession. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to weaken following Moody’s credit downgrade, providing additional support to the pound. GBP/USD now faces resistance at 1.3450, with higher targets at 1.3550 and 1.3700. Support is located at 1.3160, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2960.
by ChartMage
GBPUSD Holds Rebound Above 1.32On the back of softer U.S. inflation data and stronger-than-expected UK figures (with GDP at 0.2% vs. 0% expected and claimant count change at 5.2k vs. 22.3k), GBPUSD held above 1.32. Bullish scenario: A clean hold above 1.3350 could push the pair toward 1.3450, with potential for new 2025 highs at 1.3750 and 1.4210, aligning with the highs of 2021. Bearish scenario: A break below 1.32 may bring support levels at 1.3150, 1.3070, and 1.2980 into view. In extreme cases, 1.27 could be tested, aligning with overbought RSI levels last seen in July 2023 and September 2024, and the long-term trendline from 2014–2021. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 16, 2025 GBPUSDU.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as the cost of services fell the most since 2009. The Bureau of Labour Statistics on Thursday released data that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4 per cent in April, down from 2.7 per cent previously. This figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. In addition, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 10 May were 229 thousand, compared to the previous week's 229 thousand (revised from 228 thousand). This value was in line with initial estimates. Swap markets priced in the first Fed rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting and expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year. Some analysts believe policymakers may wait until December. Favourable UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data suggests the UK's economic health is robust, dampening hopes of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE). This, in turn, provides some support for the British pound against the US dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3350, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3550
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
DXY Sell this rally. Bearish until end-of-year.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down since the September 26 2022 High and is currently on a medium-term Bearish Leg. The last 3 weeks however have been a short-term rebound (all 1W candles green), but the price is still below both the 1W MA200 (orang trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This doesn't alter the bearish trend as this is not the first time we've seen this price action. More specifically, DXY also made a short-term rebound during the first Bearish Leg of the pattern and rebounded on January 30 2023 back to the 1W MA50. This delivered a strong rejection which eventually completed the Bearish Leg with one last round of selling to complete a -13.30% Bearish Leg in total. Before that, we also saw the same pattern (also on 1W RSI terms) in 2020, when on August 31 2020 the price again had a short-term rebound only to resume the bearish trend and finish the sequence again at -13.40% from the top. As a result, as long as the price remains (closes) below the 1W MA50, the last sell signal is given when the 1W RSI breaks above its MA (yellow trend-line) and then we can expect the Bearish Leg to complete a -13.30% decline with a 96.000 Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
Digital Euro: Separating Fact from Conspiracy TheoriesIn today’s fast-paced digital landscape, misinformation can spread rapidly and mislead even those well-intentioned readers. With the Digital Euro project circulating online, numerous pieces of fake news have surfaced—not just criticism or differing opinions, but outright falsehoods that may convince citizens, especially those less familiar with financial innovations, that the project is something it is not. In this article, we delve into the most common misconceptions and explain with clarity and factual context why these claims do not correspond with reality. 1. Myth: "The Digital Euro Will Replace Cash" ❌ False. Despite alarming headlines, cash will not vanish. The Digital Euro is poised to become an additional payment option alongside physical money. The Eurosystem is committed to ensuring that banknotes and coins remain accessible. In fact, plans are already underway to introduce new series of euro banknotes, reaffirming the continued value of cash in our daily transactions. 2. Myth: "The ECB Will Be Able to Control and Block Your Payments" ❌ False. Privacy is a cornerstone of the Digital Euro. Similar to the way cash transactions operate, offline payments would be possible without any tracking by the Eurosystem. This means that your personal transactions remain private and free from arbitrary interference. The design of the digital euro ensures that your financial autonomy is preserved. 3. Myth: "There Will Be Arbitrary Limits on How Much Digital Euro Can Be Held" ❌ False. Any limits imposed on holding digital euros would not be arbitrary measures of control but rather tools to safeguard financial stability. Such thresholds are considered from the perspective of systemic security—not the curtailment of individual freedom. The focus is on ensuring that the financial ecosystem remains resilient rather than monitoring or constraining individual spending. 4. Myth: "The Digital Euro Is a Way to Introduce Negative Interest Rates on Deposits" ❌ False. The digital euro is designed to mirror cash in its fundamental properties—namely, being interest-free. It is not a mechanism for financial authorities to impose negative interest rates on personal funds. The purpose is to complement traditional cash by offering a modern payment solution without altering the neutrality of money. 5. Myth: "It Will Be Mandatory to Use the Digital Euro" ❌ False. Use of the digital euro is entirely optional, serving as one out of many available payment instruments. Just as consumers choose between cash, credit cards, or other digital means, the digital euro is simply an additional tool. No regulation compels you to adopt this innovation if you prefer your existing methods. 6. Myth: "Banks Will Lose All Their Role" ❌ False. The introduction of the digital euro will not render banks obsolete. Banks will continue to provide essential financial services, acting as intermediaries and offering the digital euro alongside other products. The evolution of the payment system enhances consumer choice without dismantling the traditional banking framework. 7. Myth: "The Digital Euro Will Be Programmable, So They Will Tell You How to Spend Your Money" ❌ False. The concept of programmability—that is, dictating how funds are spent—has been explicitly ruled out by the ECB. Both proposals from the European Commission and the legislative frameworks confirm that the digital euro will not be programmable. The goal is to maintain financial freedom and user discretion, similar to how cash operates. 8. Myth: "It's a Project to Eliminate Cryptocurrencies" ❌ False. Rather than extinguishing cryptoassets, the Digital Euro is designed to coexist alongside them. While cryptocurrencies are often speculative and volatile, the digital euro aims to offer a more stable and secure means of payment. The two are intended to serve different purposes: cryptoassets are generally considered investment or speculative instruments, whereas the Digital Euro would fulfill everyday transactional needs. 9. Myth: "There Will Be No More Privacy in Payments" ❌ False. Privacy in the digital age remains a top priority. Offline transactions with the Digital Euro will mirror the privacy features of cash, shielding your personal data. For online transactions, robust privacy regimes are in place. Importantly, the issuer—the Eurosystem—will not have the ability to directly connect transactions to specific individuals, ensuring that your financial privacy is maintained. Conclusion The Digital Euro is not the harbinger of a new era of financial surveillance or control. Instead, it represents an additional, modern means of payment designed to coexist with traditional cash and current banking services . By dispelling these myths, we hope to foster a clearer understanding of the Digital Euro project and promote informed discussions based on official facts. Embracing accurate information is crucial to navigating the ever-changing world of digital finance, ensuring that choices are made based on facts rather than fictions. FX_IDC:EURUSD TVC:DXY TVC:EXY INDEX:BTCUSD CRYPTO:BTCUSD TVC:SPX EUREX:FESX1! EURONEXT:N100 AMEX:FXE TVC:GOLD FX_IDC:XAUUSD
Long
by CassianDrake
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 13, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index 18:00 EET. USD - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks The GBP/USD pair is climbing towards 1.3195 in the early European session on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump said last week that he would continue to impose new 10% tariffs on imports of most British goods, but would reduce higher tariffs on imports of British cars, steel and aluminium. These positive developments related to the US-UK trade deal are fuelling cable prices. In addition, gradual and cautious policy easing by the Bank of England is helping to boost the Pound Sterling. The UK central bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in a split decision last week and said the risks to growth posed by Trump's global trade war did not derail its plan for cautious policy easing. The Bank of England estimates the UK economy will grow by 1 per cent, up from the 0.75 per cent forecast at its February meeting. Traders await the release of the US consumer price index (CPI) for April, due later on Tuesday. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3225, SL 1.3125, TP 1.3425
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY Ready to Pop – Watch That 100 Break!After breaking below the key psychological level at 100 and making a low just under 98, the Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a consolidation phase. Over the past three weeks, price has developed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline perfectly aligning with the horizontal resistance at 100 — a strong zone of confluence from both a technical and psychological standpoint. Despite the current hesitation under resistance, the structure suggests bullish potential. I believe we are approaching a breakout above 100, and once that happens, an acceleration to the upside is likely to follow. 🎯 Target: 102 🔒 Invalidation: A break below 98 would cancel the bullish bias. As long as the price stays above the 98 area, I remain bullish and expect the dollar to strengthen. 🚀 The breakout hasn’t happened yet — but the pressure is building.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Global Calm, Fiscal Storm: The Yen's Challenge?The USD/JPY currency pair has recently experienced a notable surge, driving the Japanese Yen to its weakest level against the US Dollar in a month. This appreciation primarily stems from a significant improvement in global risk sentiment, sparked by a breakthrough trade agreement between the United States and China. This deal, aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, has bolstered investor confidence and diminished the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Adding to the dollar's strength is the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, signaling no immediate plans for interest rate cuts and reinforcing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets amidst easing concerns about a US recession. Simultaneously, internal economic pressures in Japan significantly weigh on the Yen. The nation's public debt has reached an unprecedented high, driven by persistent increases in defense spending and social welfare costs due to an aging population. Government subsidies for energy bills and the need to issue more bonds to cover rising expenditures exacerbate this fiscal strain. This challenging domestic backdrop contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's position, creating a widening divergence in monetary policy outlooks that favors the US Dollar through yield differentials, despite the Bank of Japan's cautious consideration of future rate adjustments. Furthermore, reducing global geopolitical tensions has contributed to the shift away from safe-haven currencies. Recent ceasefires and prospects for diplomatic talks in key conflict areas have encouraged a "risk-on" environment in financial markets. This increased appetite for riskier assets directly reduces demand for the Japanese Yen, amplifying the impact of fundamental economic factors and monetary policy divergence on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The pair's trajectory remains subject to evolving global dynamics, upcoming economic data releases, and central bank communications.
Long
by UDIS_View