Bullish or Bearish...? Multi Time Frame Analysis
Hey guys!
Over the past 2 weeks, we have seen the EURUSD pair go deep down. The beautiful part is that it played out well according to our analysis and prediction. So let's try again.
This time, we see this pair switch like a flipped coin from a long bearish to a steep bullish climb. Will this be the end of the bearishness, and are the Bulls to resume taking prices higher?
Or is this just one of those usual bullish pullbacks within a larger timeframe Bearish swing?
Watch this short Multi Time Frame Analysis to find out.
Please share your thoughts on this pair's price movement. Dont forget to Boost and to share with other traders
Dollar
UJDAILY
All we have is consolidation and reversal candles with no definitive pattern. Yet they are pushing upwards, tomorrow we will get the correct direction.
4H
Inverse H&S and we still struggling to break the neckline of the pattern, therefore we have no guarantee that we are going up. We broke it but came right back and have been struggling to break it (151.70)
1H
Once again we are rejecting the neck line 151.70 which should tell us that actual momentum we'll only see tomorrow before NFP, during NFP and after NFP. Till then sit still.
15Min
151.67 and 151.63, this gap should further show that there is still strength from the bears which has not fully played out as the volatility is yet to kick in.
EurUsd Pullback treads between Key Level's 1.0765/1.0790 🎚️Hello Traders.. In our previous analysis (24hrs ago) we called out Longs/Buys from 1.0732 and price is currently 1.0770, an increase of 40 pips. The Monthly candle pulled down to begin the month and as we enter Wednesday the candle is returning to Break even after dropping 60 pips. The market now treads above the weekly level 1.0765 and will this sustain until the end of the week.. it's possible although I dont think we've seen the end of USD momentum this week but maybe we have. Maybe the market will pull up it's pants and the Eur will make a difference lol. The Tuesday daily candle closed bullish back above the weekly level 1.0765, this level we must watch closely... The wednesday daily candle already broke the high of the previous candle .. hmm... If we do head bullish I see us tapping into the daily resistance created on Monday at 1.079. Otherwise we created a daily support level today with the Bullish candle close at 1.0742. We do have a good amount of data in the upcoming session which could cause some volatility. I can see buyers pushing price to the Daily level 1.079 where we may see Sellers step back in. Today's session could be tricky and flexibility will be key.
USDJPY: Your Trading Plan Ahead of FED 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is currently accumulating within a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
It looks like the market participants are waiting for some important fundamental data
to decide where to push the prices.
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish
151.70 - 152.00 is a key horizontal resistance.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above, will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 153.0 level then.
Bearish
151.0 - 151.3 is the support of a daily range.
Its bearish breakout - a daily candle close below, will be a perfect signal to short.
The first goal for the sellers will be 150.3 support.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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UJUPDATE
4H
We are still consolidating and this is not the time to enter but rather the time to wait for a breakout of either direction.
1H
We are in the middle of a channel but we are consolidating. If we follow the possible formation of the channel we expect a bull run to 152.20 which will be a break of the highs and a point to look for trades to enter.
15Min
That trade idea placed is very poor and not one to take, especially where UJ and NFP week are involved as high volumes of volatility can kick in whenever high demand is supplied.
USDCAD - Long Trade IdeaThis is a long trade idea I have, based on the abundance of buyside liquidity in the form of relative equal highs that extend beyond the left of the chart, as well as the trendline resistance building up below it. Whilst it is possible for price to make new lows, my focus is on HOW and WHEN price reacts when it gets to this POI.
Although the DXY seems overextended, many of the XXXUSD pairs have yet to reach their draw on liquidity, furthermore, they have created even more relative equal lows. This further adds to my USDCAD bias. My only concern is that the DXY generally sees more seasonally bearish sentiment during the month of April.
Let's see what pans out.
- R2F
Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this.
1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency.
3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it.
4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances.
5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains.
7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed.
8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed.
9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory.
10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion.
11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits.
12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades.
Macro Fibonacci
Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low.
Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level.
In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading.
Historical Price Action
Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for...
1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level.
2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break.
3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA.
Trading Setup
Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear...
1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level.
2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break.
3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support.
Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path.
The U.S. Dollar
The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting.
1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart.
2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal.
3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel.
As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery.
Treasury Yields
Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long
Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum
Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP
Futures: (Not yet)
Fomo Liquidity Pullback 🤐Anticipating a pullback with London session to clear Fomo liquidity. Depending on the amount, we may observe a pullback to 1.07435 4hr Resistance zone. If the market is extra stubborn then we may see a more sustained pullback to 1.075 area. Manufacturing data during NY session today surprised to the upside and beat the forecast creating a dramatic selloff on EurUsd. Not surprised for us here at ShrewdCatFx since we have been outlining the Market sentiment surrounding USD with hot labor market and increasing inflation readings last month of March. Good manufacturing data was just gasoline on the already hot USD. On another note, it's the beginning of the week still.. it's pretty early in the week and we've already observed some great volatility.. I believe we may observe some rversion to the mean for EurUsd and London will cause some pullback volatility to gather liquidity and plus it's only Monday. We still have ADP and NFP which will be a good excuse for more volatility.. so in the meantime we may mess around and range or pullback.. if not then I may be wrong and our next 4hr zone 1.07265 and 1.07105 are our next short targets for the upcoming sessions which has USD job openings news which is forecasted to decrease slightly across the previous data point which lines up with some at least short term EUR strength.. safe trading
DXY is minor ranging here(4/2/2024)In our last analysis, we had anticipated a bullish move in DXY.
Right now, because of selling pressure in DXY, the momentum has gone weak. Plus, the market is waiting for NFP/Unemployment news. So we are expecting a minor correction /range in DXY.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
1 YR US BILLS - WEEKLYSeeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh heavily on the economy with prices shooting up too fast.
1D
1W
USDJPYWEEKLY
Previous candlestick confirmation were 2 bullish engulfing candles which gave us bullish movement.
DAILY
152.100 our rejection level, even got a reversal candlestick right on it but we will wait for the next few candles. Rather an immediate breakout either up or down, we have consolidation.
4H
It's just more consolidation, up and down, averages no immediate or directive.
1H
Just an assumption to the upside, but it's not guaranteed.
15Min
Will wait for 151.800 to be hit before doing anything
The dollar index is in the crossroad of rising or fallingThe dollar index has once again hit the resistance of the downward trend line. It looks like the dollar index is forming a double top pattern. It is expected that the index will experience a fall from the range of 105.00
Breaking this range to the top will be an ominous sign for asset risk, and we should also wait for more currencies to fall against the dollar.
USDJPY DAILY OUTLOOK AFTER THE END OF Q1The 1st Quarter of the year has come to an end and buyers dominated the market for the past 3 months. And price closed at the previous years high. The question going into the mind of trader is, “will the bullish strength continue ? Well,to get answer to that, we’ve been able to identify couple of trend-lines & key levels to help us navigate the potential trajectory of the market. If price is able to break above 151.820 and provide one of the valid entry requirements, we’ll go long while a break below trendline and 146.740 insight a bearish sentiment.
Dollar Index (DXY): Bullish Outlook For Next Week 💲
Dollar Index is trading in a bullish trend.
The price formed a nice bullish triangle on a 4h time frame,
its resistance breakout is a strong bullish signal.
The market will most likely keep growing next week.
Next resistance - 104.5
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DOLLAR INDEX LONG TO $108 (UPDATE)📈It is Good Friday today which is why a lot of markets are closed & momentum is slow. But overall, DXY is moving nicely in our favour. After a retracement, buyers have now pushed the Dollar back to its previous short term high of $105. Much more upside expected in the coming quarter.
Monthly Candle Closure Volatility ♠️Some banks and Institutions require their execution desks to close positions as the month comes to and end. This sometimes causes wild and irrational choppiness in the price action. Caution as the market closes out the month of March 24'. PCE data is forecasted to decrease which could spark some optimism and a rebound to the upside to end the month. If not, we may very well see a continuation of momentum with safe-haven buying of the USD aka EurUsd heads to the sea floor.
Next target for shorts is weekly level 1.07663 and 1.07451 4hr zone.
0:0 Monthly timeframe
3:42 Weekly timeframe
5:30 Daily timeframe
7:03 4hr timeframe
9:30 1hr timeframe and upcoming news
Retest 1.083 prior to more Downside -> EurUsd 🐺Based off fundamentals and apparent momentum in the market, my bias remains as bearish for the EurUsd currency pair. The Monthly candle has reteaced nearly all of it's gains as we come to a close in 2 days. The the top wick signals rejection from the high of the Monthly resistance to me (1.103). This coincided with Jobs data and Increasing inflation data and the last few weeks we have observed bearish momentum in the market. Yes this week so far we have recieved some buying pressure off the 1.0805 daily support level. Although with GDP data forecasted to remain unchanged tomorrow and Housing data expected to grow for the U.S. economy, I can observe more potnetial USD strength to end the March Monthly candle. First target is 1.0805 retest of the Daily support level, then 1.08 4hr zone and ultimately 1.0768 weekly level
EURUSD: Important Key Levels to Watch 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important key levels to watch on EURUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.0840 - 1.0865 area
Resistance 2: 1.0922 - 1.0943 area
Resistance 3: 1.0964 - 1.1000 area
Support 1: 1.0785 - 1.0805 area
Support 2: 1.0695 - 1.0709 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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