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Why Now is the Time to Go Long on USD/JPYThe trade idea capitalizes on the economic strengths of the US and the challenges faced by Japan, making a long position on USD/JPY appealing. Amidst the contrasting economic landscapes of the US and Japan, a long position on USD/JPY appears favorable. The robust and resilient US economy, marked by strong retail sales, positive jobless claims, and optimistic consumer sentiment, positions the USD on solid ground. In contrast, Japan faces challenges with contracting Manufacturing PMI, easing CPI, and external factors like weakened Chinese data impacting its economic outlook. US Economic Strength: Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates reflects a strong and resilient economy. December retail sales surged, indicating consumer confidence. Positive jobless claims and robust performance in ISM Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales further strengthen the USD. JPY Economic Challenges: BOJ maintains expected monetary policy; Governor Ueda expresses openness to easing. Stable Unemployment Rate, but Manufacturing PMI contracts while Services PMI shows resilience. Japanese wage data falls below expectations, impacting BOJ's policy decisions. Weakening Chinese data adds complexities to Japan's economic scenario. Trade Strategy: Long Position on USD/JPY: Consider initiating a long position on the USD/JPY currency pair. Entry Point: Look for technical signals indicating potential upward momentum. Stop-Loss: Place below recent significant support to manage downside risks. Take-Profit: Target the next resistance level, considering the positive momentum in the US economy.
Long
by Elite_Forex
2
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 23.01.2024 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bearish around 2021.700 forming Daily Resistance around 2029.800 – Buys on close above 2024.800 targeting Daily Resistance formed around 2029.800, Leaving Runners to the 4h Resistance formed around 2035.500. – Sells on close below 2018.200 targeting 4h previous Resistance formed on 18th January 2024 around 2012.000, Leaving Runners to the Daily Support formed on Thursday last week around 2006.200. – Medium Impact News ahead of the New York session open for the US Dollar, Richmond Manufacturing Index, High volatility expected.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SalimFX20
2024 US Recession | Key Factors2000 DOT-COM CRISIS The dot-com crisis, also known as the "dot-com bubble" or "dot-com crash," was a period of economic turbulence that affected the technology and telecommunications sectors in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some key points: Euphoria Phase: In the 1990s, there was a boom in the technology and dot-com industry fueled by irrational investor euphoria. Many companies secured significant funding, even if they had weak or nonexistent business models. Excessive Valuations: Valuations of technology companies skyrocketed, often based on exaggerated growth projections and unrealistic expectations. This led to rampant speculation in financial markets. Bubble and Collapse: In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Many investors realized that numerous technology companies were unable to generate profits in the short term. This triggered a massive sell-off of stocks and a collapse in tech stock prices. Economic Impacts: The crisis had widespread economic impacts, with the loss of value in many technology stocks and the bankruptcy of numerous companies. Investors suffered heavy losses, and this had repercussions on the entire stock market. Economic Lessons: The dot-com crisis led to a reassessment of investment practices and taught lessons about the importance of carefully analyzing companies' fundamentals and avoiding investments based solely on speculative expectations. Following this crisis, the technology sector experienced a correction but also contributed to shaping the industry in a more sustainable way. Many companies that survived the crisis implemented more realistic and sustainable strategies, contributing to the subsequent growth and development of the technology sector. 2007-2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS The 2007-2008 financial crisis was a widespread event that had a significant impact on the global economy. Here are some key points: Origins in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: The crisis originated in the U.S. real estate sector, particularly in subprime mortgages (high-risk). An increase in mortgage defaults led to severe losses for financial institutions holding securities tied to these loans. Spread of Financial Problems: Losses in the mortgage sector spread globally, involving international financial institutions. Lack of transparency in complex financial products contributed to the crisis's diffusion. Bank Failures and Government Bailouts: Several major financial institutions either failed or were on the brink of failure. Government interventions, including bailouts and nationalizations, were necessary to prevent the collapse of the financial system. Stock Market Crashes: Global stock markets experienced significant crashes. Investors lost confidence in financial institutions, leading to a flight from risk and an economic contraction. Impact on the Real Economy: The financial crisis directly impacted the real economy. The ensuing global recession resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, decreased industrial production, and a contraction in consumer spending. Financial Sector Reforms: The crisis prompted a reevaluation of financial regulations. In response, many nations implemented reforms to enhance financial oversight and mitigate systemic risks. Lessons Learned: The financial crisis underscored the need for more effective risk management, increased transparency in financial markets, and better monitoring of financial institutions. The 2007-2008 financial crisis had a lasting impact on the approach to economic and financial policies, leading to greater awareness of systemic risks and the adoption of measures to prevent future crises. 2019 PRE COVID In 2019, I closely observed a significant event in the financial markets: the inversion of the yield curve, with 3-month yields surpassing those at 2, 5, and 10 years. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is generally considered an advanced signal of a potential economic recession and has often been linked to various financial crises in the past. The inversion of the yield curve occurred when short-term government bond yields, such as those at 3 months, exceeded those at long-term, like 2, 5, and 10 years. This situation raised concerns among investors and analysts, as historically, similar inversions have been followed by periods of economic contraction. Subsequently, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, originating in late 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The virus was identified as a new strain of coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2. The global spread of the virus was rapid throughout 2020, causing a worldwide pandemic. Countries worldwide implemented lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the virus's spread. The economic impact of the pandemic was significant globally, with sectors such as tourism, aviation, and hospitality particularly affected, leading to business closures and job losses. Efforts to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 were intense, and in 2020, several vaccines were approved, contributing to efforts to contain the virus's spread. In 2021, the Delta variant of the virus emerged as a highly transmissible variant, leading to new increases in cases in many regions worldwide. Subsequent variants continued to impact pandemic management. Government and health authorities' responses varied from country to country, with measures ranging from lockdowns and mass vaccinations to specific crisis management strategies. The pandemic highlighted the need for international cooperation, robust healthcare systems, and global preparedness to address future pandemics. In summary, the observation of the yield curve inversion in 2019 served as a predictive element, suggesting imminent economic challenges, and the subsequent pandemic confirmed the complexity and interconnectedness of factors influencing global economic health. 2024 Outlook The outlook for 2024 presents significant economic challenges, outlined by a series of critical indicators. At the core of these dynamics are the interest rates, which have reached exceptionally high levels, fueling an atmosphere of uncertainty and impacting access to credit and spending by businesses and consumers. One of the primary concerns is the inversion of the yield curve, manifested between July and September 2022. This phenomenon, often associated with periods of economic recession, has heightened alarm about the stability of the economic environment. The upward break of the 3-month curve compared to the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year curves has raised questions about the future trajectory of the economy. Simultaneously, housing prices in the United States have reached historic highs, raising concerns about a potential real estate bubble. This situation prompts questions about the sustainability of the real estate market and the risks associated with a potential collapse in housing prices. Geopolitical instability further contributes to the complexity of the economic landscape. With ongoing conflicts in Russia, the Red Sea, Palestine, and escalating tensions in Taiwan, investors are compelled to assess the potential impact of these events on global economic stability. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Composite Index, showing an upward trend since December 2021, suggests an increase in financial difficulties among consumers. Similarly, the charge-off rate on credit card loans for all commercial banks, increasing since the first quarter of 2022, reflects growing financial pressure on consumers and the banking sector. In this context, it is essential to adopt a prudent approach based on a detailed analysis of economic and financial data. The ability to adapt to changing market conditions becomes crucial for individuals, businesses, and financial institutions. Continuous monitoring of the evolution of economic and geopolitical indicators will be decisive in understanding and addressing the challenges that 2024 may bring.
TVC:US03MYEducation
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDJPY : Trend is bullish above 129.60As we can see from the chart above, the previously shared analysis hasn't changed (see chart below). From a technical point of view, we have considered the idea of a potential bullish swing developed with at least 3 legs, such as ABC for example )without excluding an impulsive structure 12345 with Target above the previous Top). Now, instead of following the pair on the weekly chart as we did previously, let's try to show the first 2 potential Target Areas: - 140.00 (Target 1) - 143.00 (Target 2) Having said that, the support still remains at 129.67 and as long as Price Action remains above, trend on daily chart is bullish. Having said that, the support still remains at 129.67 and as long as Price Action remains above, trend on daily chart is bullish. At the same time, we can follow the pair on intraday chart too, looking for closer supports that could anticipate the potential Bullish Pattern failure. ANALYSIS ON WEEKLY CHART: (Click & Play on Chart below) Trade with care! Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
Long
by TheAnonymousBanker
25
Let’s See Where GBPUSD Exits The RangeOverall, EASYMARKETS:GBPUSD is still trading above a medium-term tentative upside support line taken from the lowest point of March 2023. From the shorter-term perspective, from around mid-December, the pair is moving sideways within a range, roughly between the 1.2615 and 1.2800 areas. In order to consider the next short-term directional move, we would prefer to wait for a break through one of the sides of that range first. A push through the upper bound of the aforementioned range, at 1.2800, may invite more buyers into the game, possibly clearing the way for EASYMARKETS:GBPUSD towards higher areas. There is a good chance we might see a move towards the 1.2900 zone, however, our main target could be near the psychological 1.3000 hurdle. That hurdle is marked not far from the high of July 27th, 2023. On the downside, a break of the lower side of the previously discussed range, at around 1.2615, could spark interest in the eyes of many more bears. EASYMARKETS:GBPUSD could then travel to the 1.2500 territory, or slightly lower to the 1.2450 area. The latter one is marked by the low of November 22nd, 2023. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 22.01.2024 1h chart– Previous Weekly candle closed Bearish around 2029.600 forming Weekly Resistance around 2049.200, Friday daily candle closed weak Bullish rejecting 2040s area. – Buys on close above 2035.300 targeting 1h Resistance formed around 2041.600, Leaving Runners to the Weekly Resistance formed around 2049.200. – Sells on close below 2024.900 targeting 1h Support around 2019.400, Leaving Runners to the 4h previous Resistance formed on 18th January 2024 around 2012.000. – Ideally is to allow the Asian session to form a new range for the new week ahead and wait for high volume time around the Pre London / London session open.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SalimFX20