Get started

Dollar

Sterling Flat Before BoE and Fed Policy DecisionsGBP/USD trades near 1.3435 on Wednesday, steadying after a 1.2% drop Tuesday amid rising geopolitical tensions and safe-haven dollar demand. The pound stays under pressure ahead of today’s UK inflation report and tomorrow’s BoE decision, where rates are expected to remain at 4.25%. Any inflation surprise could shift market expectations. Ongoing Middle East conflict continues to support the dollar, while traders also await the Fed’s policy announcement later today, which could influence GBP/USD further. Resistance is at 1.3600, with support around 1.3425.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision Declining confidence in the US economy amid trade policy is undermining the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that US retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in May, compared to a 0.1% decline (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April. The figure was weaker than estimates of -0.7%. Meanwhile, US industrial production in May declined 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously (revised from 0%), worse than expectations of 0.1%. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday. Markets now estimate a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September and then another in October, according to Reuters. The mood of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is supportive of the common currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end as the central bank is now in a “good position” to deal with the current uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on geopolitical risks. Israel is set to step up strikes on Tehran, while the US is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1460, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1260
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Goldman and BofA agree: The dollar is losing its edgeGoldman Sachs now expects the EUR/USD to hit 1.20 by the end of the year. While this prediction draws comparisons to the 2017 rally in the pair, Goldman notes a key difference. This time, the pricing reflects pessimism in the US dollar, rather than optimism in the euro. Bank of America seemingly agrees and warns that even a “hawkish” dot plot at this week’s FOMC meeting, where Fed officials signal fewer rate cuts, may only cause a brief bout of euro weakness against the dollar. EUR/USD has recently broken out of a long-term descending triangle pattern, which capped price action from mid-April through early June, aligning with Goldman Sachs’ and BofA’s view of a broad EUR strength/ USD weakness. This recent pullback to the 1.1480 area is a retest of former resistance turned support, suggesting a potential continuation pattern if buyers defend this level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Tariff uncertainty keeps weighing on the dollar. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly amid signs of potential negotiations, prompting markets to shift their focus back to the upcoming FOMC and tariffs. Following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, President Trump stated that a trade deal with Canada could be reached within weeks, and also confirmed that a trade agreement with the UK has been signed. Meanwhile, markets are almost certain that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC, with the probability priced at 99.8%. Wells Fargo expects the inflation outlook to rise due to the delayed impact of higher tariffs, projecting that the year-end median federal funds rate will climb by 25bps to 4.125%. DXY is consolidating within the 97.50–98.50 range, remaining below both EMAs, which suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum. If DXY breaks below the support at 98.00, the index may retreat to 97.50. Conversely, if DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.50 and the descending trendline, the index could gain upward momentum toward 99.00.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on. The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16 Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene. For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value. The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness. So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time. Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy. Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news . Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar. The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party. On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America. US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut? US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve. So what does the market do? It prices in a cut. Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny. ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises? Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency. Here’s why it’s rising instead: Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon. The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms. Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life. Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out. Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction. From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.” Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
by TradingView
19
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 12, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening for the second day in a row against a weakened US Dollar (USD) and is moving further away from the two-week low reached the day before. The market's initial reaction to news of trade talks between the US and China faded rather quickly after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, curbs investors' appetite for risky assets and maintains the yen's status as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the yen is further supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may tighten monetary conditions amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. On the other hand, the US Dollar looks vulnerable near one-month lows as weaker US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, led the USD/JPY pair to fall below 143.50 in the last hour. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.30, SL 144.30, TP 141.30
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004