DXY False Break or begin of a new Down trendMarket is at the bottom of a Bullish channel and is forming a bearish dark cloud cover on the weekly
Prior the market formed a bearish double top but failed to hold. Market found a strong level of support
at the top of the double top. I see the market forming a Bullish head and shoulders with the right tip at
the bottom of the channel.
I expect the market to have a false breakout and test the level of support one more time before the
continuation of the bull run. In doing so the market has formed a double bottom witch is a strong bullish singn.
Dollar_index
DXY THE BIG PICTURELooking at 12 year Up-Trend on DXY we are now facing either way on coming near term months.
Rejection could keep the consolidation
A break and close below TL could test 88.2
This is a big picture for DXY and its situation and keep in mind 1 month chart has huge gap.
Thumbs and Thanks,
Dollar is in FreeFALLThe elections proved what we already knew. Trump’s re-election would be good for the dollar, at least in the short-term, whereas a Biden win is distinctively negative. Why? More stimulus is great for stocks, precious metals—everything except the dollar. Both Trump and Biden planned to massively increase spending, but Biden is expected to spend so much more than Trump on everything from clean energy, to free education, healthcare, infrastructure, welfare payments, and artificial intelligence. This means another massive increase in debt, which the IMF forecast two weeks ago. Who is going to pay for all of this new debt? The Fed, of course, by printing more dollars out of thin air. This is extremely negative for the dollar. The dollar remains near perfectly negatively correlated to Gold . What is bad for the dollar is good for Gold , Silver , and the miners.
It is clear that a Biden victory is therefore the best news for precious metals and miners. While I am cautiously optimistic that the lows have been seen in the precious metals space and the mega-rally has begun to new highs, there are several key issues to consider:
1. Trump has not conceded. Quite the opposite. He plans to challenge the legitimacy of critical Biden ballots all the way up to a Supreme Court dominated by Republican appointees.
2. The Democrats lost seats in the House, but more importantly, the Senate remains in Republican hands. Even if Biden is confirmed, the stalemate on stimulus could continue for quite some time. The recent euphoria could be reversed somewhat as that reality settles in.
The biggest risk, but a low probability, is that the markets get carried away with a Biden presidency and Trump ultimately wins out, courtesy of the Supreme Court. This would cause a massive reversal of all the market moves post election day, not to mention widespread social unrest.
On the technical front, the dollar was sent packing at the 50-day moving average and established a lower high. Support at 92.47 has broken now, the first sign of real trouble. We break thru the 91.75 support and strap in for the drop.
The Dollar Will Continue to Devalue. DXYDXY is USD Currency index. The chart is clearly bullish, therefore more USD will come from the same basket of currencies. Thus, USD value will continue to drop. I suppose this is not news to anyone who has been following the news and in light of all the money printing byt the fed reserve. Anyway, Fibgoals are where they are. Not financial advice.
A BEARISH DOLLARPRICE HAS BEEN ACCUMULATING FOR THE PAST 3 MONTHS, IN AN AREA WHERE ON THE HIGHER TIME FRAMES, LEFT AN IMBALANCE IN PRICE. BELOW THIS AREA OF IMBALANCE WE STILL HAVE MORE PRICE INEFFICIENCY IN THE 80'S PRICE RANGE. PRICE DID IT'S THING AND HAS TRAPPED BREAKOUT TRADERS AND NOW, THE EXPECTATION IS TO SEE PRICE MOVE LOWER TO FILL SOME OF THE INEFFICIENCY BELOW. PROJECTING PRICE TO GET TO AT LEAST 85.50
DXY - Dollar SellHi trades,
Watch your lower time frame for your sell setups. If the price will aggressively break to the upside this setup will become invalidated. So keep an eye on your lower time frame for sell setups. I do anticipate that the price will be keep falling until the 3rd of November - USA ELECTION. After the election we can anticipate a DXY Dollar index to rise.
DXY- New leg up?The Dollar index corrected the first leg up and is now trading at confluence support.
I expect a new leg up for the index in weeks to come and my target is 96 zone.
Only a break and a daily close under this support would chance my bullish outlook
DXY $Index Cup & Handle Pattern H2 Chart Target 94.40(23.6%Fib.)INDEX:DXY
Update for DXY...After "No Stimulus 'til after Election" triggers market to buy $Index(DXY).
Previously, as linked ideas, I had called for a DXY bounce at beginning of September. DXY proceeded to bounce from its 2011 Long Term upwards trendline, retracing to the 23.6% Fibonacci level($94.40) of the March to September drawdown. From there I forecasted that DXY would come back to test the 14% Fib. area and the local trendline(blue dotted upward sloping). The news of no stimulus conveniently triggered "Risk-Off", subsequently turning the market to the safety of US Dollars(DXY).
On the 2-Hour Chart I see a cup & handle formation. The handle retracement looks complete at 50% Fibonacci retracement, subsequently reclaiming the(blue dotted) upward trendline.
The target for the measured move is back to the 23.6% Fib. area of $94.40....
Again, I maintain my stance regarding the DXY as I will copy paste my previously published analysis statement:
Oct 1
INDEX:DXY
I had been calling for DXY to retrace after reaching the 23.6%($94. 40 ) back to local trendline and 14% Fib.
The DXY pulled back to $93.53, just shy of the 14%, as well as the local trendline(blue dotted line).
Now we find DXY regaining its corrective momentum to the upside.
I still contend that the 138.2%($95.39) Fibonacci extension of correction is in play, and perhaps the 38.2% Retracement ($96.04)!
Perhaps the final corrective wave(call it "C" or "Y") will end in a 5 wave diagonal, not impulse?
To reiterate;
I believe DXY is following a similar trend as in 2016 during the election period in the USA! In 2016 $Index was able to rally through the election into early January, 2017. It was at that point that the DXY began to breakdown for one year. During this time Bitcoin (& Crypto) inversely correlated, and of course was able to rally to its ATH as the $Index found a bottom in January, 2018. From there the Dollar has rallied up until March of this year(2020), at which point the Dollar again broke down, and has found support on its Long Term trendline. I believe a similar pattern will play out, give or take a month or three, and DXY will eventually break below the 2011 trendline. Let's see how it all goes....
DXY 93.81 + 0.09 % LONG IDEA * PRICE ACTION, BREAKOUT & CNT PTNSHELLO EVERYONE
Here's an idea on the DOLLAR INDEX that has seen seen some bullish moves in the last couples of weeks after a bearish trend since march. the INDEX broke the 50 M.A and is currently trading above this level. most of the details are in the chart so hope this idea assists in anyway on your trading of the index.
LET'S SEE HOW IT GOES..
HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE
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ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
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If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.