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DOLLAR POWER-PUFF BLUFF?The dollar is the global indicator for all stocks, commodities, bonds, currencies and economies. It's very important. The dollar is bouncing at the trend-line and maintaining it's upward trajectory. Our thought matrix is an IF-THEN scenario. This is the way of a sagacious discretionary trader because the market operates in an environment of uncertainty, anything can happen! FUN There's always something new on the charts and we are looking for patterns that show us recurrent human behavior in the markets. A trend is a pattern. If it breaks, then we go short, If it goes up, then we go long. If it reaches the top of the upper trend line then we go short. Remember, we are not only trading price action, we are trading the tape! We always have to look at the bigger picture to get a clearer idea of what's happening on a chart at any given time. Support and resistance is the basis of price action. Trends are a derivative of support and resistance. You have to be aware of a few things in order to make a lot of profit. There're only 3 shapes (Square, Circle and Triangle) and only 3 dimensions (Vertical, Horizontal and Diagonal). These are important in determining the levels and areas of taking trades because they always find harmonic balance at this golden mean. A break upward of the 98 area will be very telling! The movement will be sustained until the trend changes. the break of the pattern will correspond with a trade confirmed in the dominant direction for medium-long-term trades in any international (local) market. A crown rests on top of a head, which rests on top of a head, which rests on top of shoulders. Price moves in fractions of the same fraction. The Golden areas are marking a zone of previous (fresh) Supply. Supply and Demand is not the same as Support and Resistance. We will monitor price at such a level and determine the appropriate action according to price action and the tape. All the best! ***For more information click the link!*** drive.google.com
TVC:DXY
by Money_Lab
USD/CHF SHORT - Bearish Divergence 1W + Major ResistanceUSD/CHF- SELL, Talking points, Technicals: One and a half year high this past wensday. you can see the reversal patterns. Weekly divergence on weekly chart gives me the final check for a Short. Also closed the week under Recistance area Fundamentals: Thanksgiving US Holiday (Thursday & Friday), Liquidity. Sentimental: Retail FX traders are positioning in Dollar-based majors like EUR/USD: 63% of Retail Traders are Long, Despite YTD lows
Short
by DikotoMandengue
DXY SHORT - Bearish Divergence + Fundamentals & SentimentalDollar index SELL, Talking points, Technicals: 16 month high this past monday. you can see the reversal patterns. Weekly divergence on weekly chart gives me the final check for a Short. Also closed the week in Recistance/Support area Fundamentals: Thanksgiving US Holiday (Thursday & Friday), Liquidity. Sentimental: Retail FX traders are positioning in Dollar-based majors like EUR/USD: 63% of Retail Traders are Long, Despite YTD lows
TVC:DXYShort
by DikotoMandengue
DXY prepping to crack supports underneath Bearish divergence on the daily chart is very clear. Also if you check the weekly chart, we had a clear SFP formation which is also a bearish signal. RSI gave confirmation of breakdown when it made a "lower low", this upward movement we saw today is a an opportunity to long the majors- EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD. Invalidation of my idea is clear, if daily candle closes above 97.20, I will exit my longs from the majors.... BUT BUT BUT.... If DXY touches the red block marked in the chart, that would urge me to enter longs on the majors which would be a nice R/R trade as marked in relation to downside on DXY's chart
TVC:DXYShort
by RikBruno94
US MIDTERM ELECTION IN THE SPOTLIGHTNovember 5, 2018 ·Andria Pichidi On Tuesday 6 November, US will proceed with the off-year elections, occurring every 4 years, before the presidential elections. The particular mid elections are expected to affect the markets as the outcome of the election will be important for the future of the President and for the control of the Congress. As the Republicans control the 54.4% of the House and 51 out of 98 seats in the Senate, it will be interesting to see whether Republicans manage to keep the control of the Congress. The control of Congress will certainly have a significant impact to any future fiscal policy judgements, as each of the parties could have the power to pass their legislation proposals or to vote against opposing legislation agendas. Therefore, Tuesday's voting will have without a doubt an impact on equity markets. Based on the history of US Presidency, we rarely saw so far the Republicans holding the control of the House and Senate, and even more rarely to remain in charge after the mid elections. The most of the surveys in the last few months suggest that there is a high risk for Republicans to be deposed, while FiveThirtyEight website gave 80.7% to the Democrats holding the House, and 69% to Republicans of holding the Senate control. From the markets perspective, the US Equity market has been reacting on any outcome of mid elections positively. More precisely, as Rathbones Brothers state, "US equities tend to be rather directionless in the six months before a midterm election, with a little extra volatility. Over the subsequent six, equities tend to rise steadily". In the past three midterm elections, where Congress' control changed hands either overall or part of it, the US equities remained on the upside movement. This can be confirmed also in the USA500 diagram Therefore, it seems that in general mid elections results, i.e. which party losses/gains/keeps the control of the Congress, are not directly correlated to the US Equities or the global market. Taking as an example the 2006 elections where Democrats took the full control of the Congress with a Republican President, and US remaining in an upside trend. Similarly to USA500, the US Dollar has not been affected from its prior-election direction. However, despite the historical performance of US equities and the US dollar, if we turn back in politics and the current US economic performance, it is not unlikely to see any extraordinary movements in the market in case that Democrats retake the control of the house. Based on the fact that US economic growth is doing extremely well in the past year, a democratic sweep of Congress could have a negative impact on US equities. Meanwhile, if Democrats manage to gain the control of both house and Senate, then it is likely to see US equities facing an even stronger negative momentum. In this case, the hopes of a democratic member to win the 2020 elections will rise, while there are risks of legislation changes from Democrats ( i.e. reduction in corporate tax, changes in budget balance) or block of presidential appointments. Hence this could have a direct impact on US economy and of course US stocks, which have been boosted from Pres. Trump’s tax plan. On the fiscal policy perspective, Democrats as they already mention in the past, they believe on the spending on infrastructure programme. This could help the industrial and material sectors to be boosted.  That could be good news for the industrials and materials sectors of the equity market—and possibly good for bond yields if Congress raises taxes to pay for it. In conclusion, there are 3 scenarios for Tuesday's Congressional election -- a GOP sweep, a Democrat sweep, or a split with Democrats taking back the House and Republicans maintaining their Senate majority. As mentioned, with history and poll on their side, the markets' base case is the split. Meanwhile, the big risk seems to be a potential Democrat victory – in either the House or the Senate, which would severely crimp President Trump's agenda, including fiscal and regulatory issues. President Trump would be unable to enact the remaining policies on his to do list, and hence he may focus all of his attention on the one thing for which he does not require Congressional approval: stoking the trade war. The potential for gridlock in Washington might be taken relatively bullishly by the bond market as increased fiscal stimulus would be in doubt, Wall Street may not like the headwinds to further economic growth. If the Republicans were to maintain control of the legislature, the president would have virtually all policy options open to pursue his domestic and international agendas. That would likely be a more bullish outcome for equities, and further pressure Treasury rates higher, both on beliefs of stronger growth, and a potentially more hawkish FOMC. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:  This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
TVC:DXYEducation
by HotForex