Dollar_index
Will Nonfarm Payrolls Spark A Move Lower In The Dollar Index?!Hello Traders,
I hope everybody is doing great.
After I covered the EURUSD in the daily chart, let’s have a look at the equivalent instrument which is the DXY.
From the 2018-02-16 low to the peak of 2018-04-05 you can see clearly that the DXY has moved in a sideways to higher trend (No higher highs or lower lows). So it was just a matter of time when the consolidation breaks. Either to the upside or downside.
You can see that after the important 2017 resistance levels of around 90.99-91.31 broke higher, it accelerated in an impulse higher. That is a so-called trend acceleration cycle.
You can see that it has been trading higher in a narrow uptrend.
So what next?! Well, for me it is simple. The DXY is still in an intact downtrend, and any move higher should be taken as a correction. Markets never move in one straight line higher or lower, they correct, trend, and consolidate and so on.
With tomorrows NFPs coming up. I am expecting the DXY to get weak again. At least for a pullback lower.
The next important daily level is the resistance now acting as new support level of 90.99-91.31. Also, the DXY is currently sitting at the 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement from the decline of late 2017. It can be a possible turning point.
It can be the case that with the NFPs the DXY can spick higher to take some stops before turning lower like I drawn in the chart. Let's see.
This view will be invalid once DXY breaks 95.15 resistance.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourselves in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view.
Dollar trying real hard to break out for some upsideDollar is really trying to stay upfloat and breakout it's resistance zone (The blue line). It may well happen for a while, since on the weekly charts it's oversold, and still has room to go on the daily. But at the end of the day I have little doubt that the bigger trend remains bearish.
DXY(Dollar Index) seems bullish now for future weeks!!!I see US dollar index (DXY) bullish for next weeks.
When we finish correction period, my expectation is that US dollar will regain its power against other currencies during next months.(April,May,June)
Technical Analysis details:
-I see divergence in squeeze indicator for trend reversal.(on weekly chart)
-Wave trend analysis shows that we are at the bottom on the weekly chart.
-Stoch seems healthy for future.
Also i observed a similar action on the past data of DXY which happened in 2010-2011 therefore it could be a good example for future movement.
I hope you like my analysis, have a nice day.
Berk
US Dollar Indexweekly ...
USD Index was put up on 8th April and we pointed out the fact about the rise for the next couple of months.
After completing wave 5 which is a downtrend wave, a new uptrend wave has started in form of wave “B” and can rise upto the indicated area.
And after that we can expect a fall for USD Index.
In case Donald Trump gets re-elected for the next US president; this scenario becomes stronger and more valid...
DXY Nearing Confirmation Point for Larger count.Price is yet to breakout of this latest congestion zone and allows for two competing counts.
The chart has the easiest description pictorially...with the WXY for the wave 4 of the major wave ii of 3/B bottom, Or, we already have the wave ii of 3/B bottom in place at the mid Feb low completion.
Both counts look for strong upside into 2019, just timing of kickoff...already or into summer.
US Dollar Index in an Ascending PatternThe Head and Shoulder's Pattern started forming on the Dollar Index from the Beginning of October 2017 to the End of December 2017. It break out of the Neckline and retested it on the Mid of January 2018 and fell sharply thereafter. The Dollar consolidated in the Mid of January 2018 in the price range of 91.00 - 90.10 but the consolidation did not remain much long as the unexpected US Govt Shut Down pushed the price even lower to test the Support, but didn't break through it and created a low of 88.25 on the 16th February. After this huge fall of the Dollar it again started consolidating in a Ascending Triangle from the last 60-65 days. Now the Price has already tested the Resistance twice, now it may again test it one or two times then it might break the resistance and test the next resistance of 91.5. If the Price on the daily closes above this mark then the dollar will be bullish from thereafter. Let's see how this price action plays out.
Note: This is my first ever post on trading view. Do let me know in the comments if you liked it or not.
Happy Trading ;)
DXY/Dollar Index re-tested channel resistanceDXY is in a down channel and last week price re-tested the channel resistance with inverse H&S failure around 90 level and has broke the counter trend line. Given the well respected channel will price fall back to channel support area around 80.50-70 coming week ?
A stronger USD in the next months?Are you worried about rate hikes by the Federal Reserve? There is something more alarming. Rising Libor rates is a bigger concern right now. Libor has been rising since Feb. 7 for 31 consecutive sessions, reaching 2.27% last March 21 (next release today at 19:30 ET). Not only, Libor tends to be a 3-month leading indicator to the dollar (I can't insert the Bloomberg chart). It would mean in the next three months a surge in the USD.
From the weekly chart of the Dollar Index, it could be a bullish signal. Indeed, the bearish trend has stopped on the 50% of Fibonacci Arc and, even though I haven't drawn it in the chart, the low (highlighted with the letter "L") has retraced the 61.8% of the previous bullish movement. The bullish signal there will be with the breakout of the rectangle resistance within which DXY it moved in the last weeks (above 90.80 approx.).
However, there is an important consideration. If there will be a tightening-up of the "trade war", we will see a weakening, a depreciation of the dollar. So, prudence.
Happy Easter to you all!!