Dollar_index
USD Index - Near Term Uptrend Still IntactAfter the breakout of an Inverse Head and Shoulders the USD Index hit the 93.635 area as highlighted last week. The near term uptrend is still intact meaning we are looking for further advances in the USD Index. However, price is currently at a key area of resistance (93.635) which has the ability to reverse the near term trend. As long as price stays above the 93.635 we will look to longs up towards the target of 94.63. A break below the 93.635 area of resistance would clear the way for moves back to the 92.865 / 92.565 area.
Dollar Index broken weekly upper rangeGreat news for Dollar bulls. On the weekly time frame the dollar index has finally broken the upper range.
This is a strong indication that we might finally see a trend reversal and a stronger dollar over the next weeks.
Previous down trend lasted 25 weeks if you start counting from the start of the channel.
If you like to hold position for a few days and make good pips then next week look for buy entries on the daily and 4 hour time frame.
USD Index - Inverse Head & Shoulder BreakoutThe USD Index confirmed the breakout of the Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern last week clearing the way for further advances towards the 93.635 and 94.630 areas of resistance to the upside. A re-test of the broken resistance area of 92.565 turning support would provide a great area to look for long opportunities. Advances in the USD Index should drive USD Strength across the board next week.
Update - Two harmonic patterns in focus Gold is testing the PRZ of a bearish Gartley.
Last week Gold broke out of a trading channel... that's a bullish sign but GLD is still inside a resistance zone.
If it will break higher, the next potential Sell Zone will be at the completion of a bearish AB=CD pattern (pink).
In such scenario 130$, which act as resistance right now, will turn to potential support and therefore will be the first target zone.
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Dollar Index hits demand zone and react, expect higher priceswww.tradingview.com
DXY entered demand zone yesterday @ 91.42-91.56 and react powerfully upwards to resistance area 92.48-92.73. Expecting market to ultimately break higher but no trading for me. Not favorable to join the train now.
92.93 is the next level of turning point. Should market break up from current resistance zone and create a false break I will join the bears for a high risk: reward opportunity. If I am not at the screen then I will let this opportunity pass.
DXY - Long time ago in a chart not so far away...I would like to start this idea with an idea I posted nearly a year ago:
Most of us here are short term traders. Some are thinking in hours , some in days and a few in weeks.
The funds and banks are playing in months and years.
"It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn." J.L. Livermore
We must think in longer terms ...
Though the megaphone idea was a bit early it was one of the best trades during the last few months. Why is that important? DXY drives most of the currency markets and has a great effect on the precious metals.
1. The dollar has started a bear market - I think by now it's not a question anymore.
2. The intermediate cycle is right translated. We broke the previous ICL and completed the tag of the megaphone's lower trendline but there is no follow through... As I posted before the dollar decline is not going to be so simple as the rally was in 2014... There will be strong countertrend rallies, intermediate rallies. There is only one player the weak dollar is good for : USA. All the other nations will fight tooth and nails against it. The other players will use every possible chance to weaken their own currency...
3.So the time for the dollar bounce has arrived. Trump wants or not it will bounce and as it is the first bear market rally: it will be strong.
The minimum is the tag of the FIBO 23,6% but I'm quite sure we will reach the FIBO 38,2% at 95,94...
4. Only when this intermediate rally is completed will the dollar be ready to break down from the topping megaphone pattern.
The rally should last for minimum 3-4 weeks and maybe 2-3 months... But as you saw powers are you using the time against us so most probably this will be longer than anyone anticipates...
5. And if the dollar rallies gold most probably will not be able to print any rally in the rest of the year.
I'm starting to think the whole gold rally was just a manufactured move for banks to drop some gold on the market on the highest possible price with the help of the Trump email hysteria and Kim's nuclear games. If I'm right the answer is easy what they will be buying in the rest of the year: stocks...
Long USD IndexDisclosure: RM Long. Price not disclosed. Entered on 08Sept17.
Shorts being squeezed. Seems a crowded USD bear trade with stretched indicators and price at important price zone. Already added 25% original size in 36hr consolidating flag breakout. Looking to build into this again if opportunity presents, conscience not to damage the R:R profile of the original trade too much.
DXY reversal and long term buyDXY reached the low of 91.01 and it seemed to reverse at that point. That is the lowest point since January 2015.
We are consolidating near the trendline which indicates that we are going to have a flag. If this was a reversal i believe we would already have been rejected and would be down.
There is a chance this could turn to a 5 wave structure but it is mostly unlikely to happen.
An ideal buy would be around 92.50
TP1 93.30
TP2 94.10
SL below 91.70 but if a flag happens i believe you won't even need an SL
This could be used as a long term signals as DXY will start crawling it's way up to the top
EURUSD Trend Continuation || Strong UptrendTrend Is Your Friend
We've been running long on EURUSD and have a failed opportunity on our monthly retracement (check tag link). After the major break made this week on the highest level, I see the market going further to make a new high near the monthly support zone. This level is complemented by Fibonacci ABCD pattern.
A retest/retouch is always a compliment to the setup and a good confirmation.
Dollar Index (DXY) on critical support could retrace to 88.50Dollar Index DXY is sitting on critical support, a break below 91.00 opens the door to 88.50 which is a confluence of:
1) 61.8 fib of the from 78.97 to 103.57 = 88.50
2) it is also the 1.272 fib retracement from 91.98 to 103.57
3) 88.50 area has also acted as previous resistance on 2 occasions and is the break out point
Maybe another dip of optimism on USDSince 2015, I marked the 93-93 region as the market's most pessimistic standpoint on USD. We saw reversals from this band three times before and each time with similar market psychology. Apparently, this time is no different than the others.
USD index 92-93 level might again be a good opportunity to buy the dips. As it happened before, we need a driving event for the reversal, which (I hope) might be the ECB monetary policy statement this Thursday.
In case Draghi disappoints the markets on asset purchase program, a firm green engulfing candlestick might close between 94.0-94.50 by the end of the week. Even further, if upward move is supported by following hawkish FED comments on balance sheet reduction and interest rates, why not consider 97-98 region again this month?
Also, I don't think that ECB is really happy with the current level of EURUSD parity.
Despite the weak jobs report - the Dollar closed above supportDespite Friday's weak jobs report, DXY managed to hold above its 200 weeks MA line and held its weekly support zone.
Focus now shifts to ECB and FOMC.
Will Draghi downplay the Euro this week?
What will the Fed members say this week? Will they promote the Dollar?
The Dollar Bulls had their first victory in weeks last week - Can they push the Dollar even higher?
I think so...