Dollar_index
USD Index/DXY SHORT PROJECT (Daily)Good day, All!
The daily bearish DXY project is currently forming.
Once point 5 is shaped, it can provide quite an interesting short opportunity.
If this pattern works, it may also signify the continuation of the major bearish trend which started back in the beginning of 2017:
Not convinced on USD Strength...Looking at the technicals, DXY has attempted to break the fib line more than once. If you look at USD JPY it has tried to penetrate the 114.40 a few times. We are not far from 114.40 again or far from 94.00. If DXY breaks 94 and USDJPY breaks 114.40 then great, on we go...
USD Index - Breakout Of Resistance Hints At Further AdvancesWe start the week with the USD Index above key resistance at 93.455 leading to a Bullish bias in this market next week. A failure of resistance would pave the way for a re-test of support at 92.635 however as long as we remain above 93.455 we will only be looking for longs in the USD Index next week.
Dollar Index - More room to fall back before Bullish Movement?DXY Daily:
- Inverted Head and Shoulders on the daily. Would like to see a break of the neckline before making any big decisions on the USD Pairs
- Break and Retest of the descending channel
- Counter trendline being respected well currently
- Completion of right shoulder matches up with 0.5 / 61.8 fib retracement
USD Index - Near Term Uptrend Still IntactAfter the breakout of an Inverse Head and Shoulders the USD Index hit the 93.635 area as highlighted last week. The near term uptrend is still intact meaning we are looking for further advances in the USD Index. However, price is currently at a key area of resistance (93.635) which has the ability to reverse the near term trend. As long as price stays above the 93.635 we will look to longs up towards the target of 94.63. A break below the 93.635 area of resistance would clear the way for moves back to the 92.865 / 92.565 area.
Dollar Index broken weekly upper rangeGreat news for Dollar bulls. On the weekly time frame the dollar index has finally broken the upper range.
This is a strong indication that we might finally see a trend reversal and a stronger dollar over the next weeks.
Previous down trend lasted 25 weeks if you start counting from the start of the channel.
If you like to hold position for a few days and make good pips then next week look for buy entries on the daily and 4 hour time frame.
USD Index - Inverse Head & Shoulder BreakoutThe USD Index confirmed the breakout of the Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern last week clearing the way for further advances towards the 93.635 and 94.630 areas of resistance to the upside. A re-test of the broken resistance area of 92.565 turning support would provide a great area to look for long opportunities. Advances in the USD Index should drive USD Strength across the board next week.
Update - Two harmonic patterns in focus Gold is testing the PRZ of a bearish Gartley.
Last week Gold broke out of a trading channel... that's a bullish sign but GLD is still inside a resistance zone.
If it will break higher, the next potential Sell Zone will be at the completion of a bearish AB=CD pattern (pink).
In such scenario 130$, which act as resistance right now, will turn to potential support and therefore will be the first target zone.
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Dollar Index hits demand zone and react, expect higher priceswww.tradingview.com
DXY entered demand zone yesterday @ 91.42-91.56 and react powerfully upwards to resistance area 92.48-92.73. Expecting market to ultimately break higher but no trading for me. Not favorable to join the train now.
92.93 is the next level of turning point. Should market break up from current resistance zone and create a false break I will join the bears for a high risk: reward opportunity. If I am not at the screen then I will let this opportunity pass.
DXY - Long time ago in a chart not so far away...I would like to start this idea with an idea I posted nearly a year ago:
Most of us here are short term traders. Some are thinking in hours , some in days and a few in weeks.
The funds and banks are playing in months and years.
"It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn." J.L. Livermore
We must think in longer terms ...
Though the megaphone idea was a bit early it was one of the best trades during the last few months. Why is that important? DXY drives most of the currency markets and has a great effect on the precious metals.
1. The dollar has started a bear market - I think by now it's not a question anymore.
2. The intermediate cycle is right translated. We broke the previous ICL and completed the tag of the megaphone's lower trendline but there is no follow through... As I posted before the dollar decline is not going to be so simple as the rally was in 2014... There will be strong countertrend rallies, intermediate rallies. There is only one player the weak dollar is good for : USA. All the other nations will fight tooth and nails against it. The other players will use every possible chance to weaken their own currency...
3.So the time for the dollar bounce has arrived. Trump wants or not it will bounce and as it is the first bear market rally: it will be strong.
The minimum is the tag of the FIBO 23,6% but I'm quite sure we will reach the FIBO 38,2% at 95,94...
4. Only when this intermediate rally is completed will the dollar be ready to break down from the topping megaphone pattern.
The rally should last for minimum 3-4 weeks and maybe 2-3 months... But as you saw powers are you using the time against us so most probably this will be longer than anyone anticipates...
5. And if the dollar rallies gold most probably will not be able to print any rally in the rest of the year.
I'm starting to think the whole gold rally was just a manufactured move for banks to drop some gold on the market on the highest possible price with the help of the Trump email hysteria and Kim's nuclear games. If I'm right the answer is easy what they will be buying in the rest of the year: stocks...