DXY ... WOW!! A major reversal is coming to the dollar It will affect all these pairs - NU/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AU/USD
The economy in the USA is doing great. lowest unemployment numbers in 17 years. Fed is slowly increasing rates. Even if inflation isnt moving up yet, Fed is still raising rates to have some ammunition for the next recession. Keep in mind inflation is a lagging indicator, by the time you start getting it whipping through the economy, its to late. Also, the first thing to show inflation isnt durable goods etc, its Assets. Large Assets in the US are inflating, houses are increasing in value at a strong pace.
The market has been bearish on the dollar for a long time dating back to march of 2017, even as far back as November of 2016. Market is bearish, fundamentals are strong. It doesnt add up. So it seems the pressure is building for the dollar to be bullish. Now throw in the technical analysis with a very nice bullish Bat on the WEEKLY chart with an RSI at 33. We are not there yet but we are getting very very close to a turn around in the dollar.
Dollar_index
Back inside a weekly support zone following trend line rejectionIn this week's newsletter I mentioned that in order to continue higher towards my final target zone (99$) DXY will have to over come a daily resistance zone that included a structure and a broken trend line near 97.5$
That zone played major role so far this week and today it has sent DXY back to the weekly harmonic support zone shown in the chart.
GDP now in focus.
Strong numbers will push DXY back up
Weak number will break that support
Basically as long as the harmonic support zone holds, I think that we are now in a potential Buy Zone but no doubt today's price action is a warning signal for the Dollar.
Don't forget to read next week's newsletter - Don't miss the next setup
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Focus on MA line (resistance) and trading channel (support)EURUSD is stalling between 1.11 and 1.13 following a down trend line breakout.
For about a month now EURUSD has been consolidating and it can end this week with speeches from Draghi, Yellen and the U.S GDP number (impact on the Dollar and therefore EURUSD).
1.12 is the nearest resistance zone - The Fast MA line is the technical element to focus on
From below we have the bottom of a trading channel (pink) as potential support.
A breakdown of the trading channel will probably lead EURUSD towards 1.11 and maybe even towards 1.1
A breakout above 1.12 will trigger a bullish move that can end with a re-test of the weekly resistance zone 1.14-1.15
Read more about EURUSD, DXY, GLD and SPX in this week's newsletter
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US DOLLAR INDEX: Buy setup on reversal channelHere we have dollar index chart and we are having a reversal channel formation to upside.
Look for breakout and if price does not breakout this time then look for the bottom to buy.
When dollar index moves, it means that dollar pairs will move with it as well (correlation). So you should look for sell on pairs such as NZDUSD, AUDUSD, EURUSD....
People buy USD as Comey tension eases and focus shifts to FOMCThe Harmonic Support Zone I mentioned in this week's newsletter.
Comey's tension eases, the GBPUSD is crashing down following the UK elections (1.3 was also a resistance zone I mentioned in this week's newsletter) and Investors are starting to buy again with expectations for another rate hike next week.
DXY is up and back above 97$
The final target zone of this potential bullish scenario is the 200 days MA line and the re-test of the broken trend line.
More updates in next week's newsletter
Potential Buy Zone for Gold GLD fell last week as Dollar rallied towards FOMC.
The turn came after the completion of a bearish Gartley pattern.
Now GLD is approaching a potential Buy Zone that includes:
Weekly MA lines
Daily MA lines
Broken trend line
Structure
Risk and Potential Reward are shown
If the Fed won't raise rates, GLD can be an interesting buy.
Read more about GLD, DXY, Bitcoin and more of my weekly forecast in the #WeeklyMarketsAnalysis (search on Twitter)
Dollar Index RIPDollar Index on the daily time frame looks like it's set for a free fall.
ADX shows a very strong bearish trend and Stoch Rsi still shows strong selling pressure. When you look at the price levels its just broken through a resistance and it seems to keep trading in the fresh downwards channel.
With this in mind, stay sharp on possible sell setups on the dollar pairs. Also look to buy JPY.
Dollar Index To Further DropAnalyzing Dollar Index is somthing every trader should do no matter if he or she trades it. The Index affects many pair in our portfolio so having a view on where is about to head helps us in our trading decision. Looking at the 240min chart we may see that obviously is in a downtrend, moving into a descending channel and is now testing a key resistance level, the sliding parallel of the median line. Switch to the hourly chart and wait for a brekout below the correction. Then watch for a sell setup completion which most likely will make Dollar Index drop
Hourly structure:
Rising channel leads Bitcoin into resistance The rising channel you see in the chart is leading BTCUSD into a daily resistance zone that includes a bearish harmonic pattern and a Fib confluence zone.
Stop loss above the psychological level, 2000 (with some buffer), should be enough if you want to try and trade Bitcoin lower based on this setup
Conservative entries - Below the Fast MA line and the trading channel (trading channel breakdown)
DXY: Just Some Random Analysis In my opinion, finding a good trading opportunity is like a detective gathers clues and seeing what they all add up to. There are lots of tools that we can use in our technical analysis, but in my opinion no single one is great. Rather it's the combination of those tools & tactics that allow us to dial down on the best areas in the markets.