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U.S. Dollar Index Weekly Outlook + BIG Long Move Possible?The US-Dollar Index is in an intact impulsive long trend. After the weekly break of the sideways range a pull back towards the break out level or in other words around 100-100.5 zone was initiated.The possible upside breakout of the 1 ½ - year sideways range also underlines the current situation within the US-Dollar. After the Federal Reserve stopped QE 3 in October 2014 and started to think about rising rates the currency moved in a sideways range of uncertainty about a next potential rate hike. As the FED said that economic data should be waited to recover. For one and a half year the market moved in a range between 92-100. This is also shown in all USD-crosses such as the EUR/USD, that the USD made choppy moves on weekly time frames. After the market indicated an upside move and a potential fundamental driver of the US election, the market finally broke out of the sideways range and closed above 100 on a weekly basis which confirmed the breakout. After the FED rose rates in December 2016 for another 25 basis points, market reacted with further upside movement. This fundamental driver gave technicals a sustainable kick to the upside. For the near term, fundamental drivers play with the question of the next rate hike by the FED and tax policy by President Trump, which will affect the US-Dollar heavily as well. We definitely keep an eye when evaluating new mid-longterm bullish US-Dollar trades. However, currently market flirts again with the break out zone and seems to start its bullish move to the upside. BUT for an clear confirmation of a new start of an impulsive move the local highs ofaround 103 should be broken with a weekly close price, then we could easily see next weekly resistance of 107.75-110 with a potential pullback before. 107.75-110 is the price target of the projection from the sideways range. Bullish candle formation in weekly chart confirms that this breakout might not be a fake one. This indication told us that the uptrend might give a little pullback to the downside before continue due to an overbought market. This scenario is currently for some weeks of flirting with the resistance. We currently await for two scenarios for the DXY. Two scenarios: - Market finds support and initiates further bullish movement and breaks the resistance zone of local highs at 103.8 (break out highs). This would be a continuation move that the next impulsive the long side has been confirmed. - Market corrects a little further to the downside and holds support around drawn trend line after initiating further bullish momentum We remain bullish on long-term. As we look at our intermarket indications we could get confirmed with our statement, as they currently cooling down from capital outflow. We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading. As seen in the chart, our two of our intermarket indications showing a cool down of capital outflows and currently moving in buying territory which might indicate a soon inflow of capital towards other asset classes. We take into account always the BIG 4: Currencies, Bonds, Stocks and Commodities. As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care.
TVC:DXYLong
by secrets2trade
3
Dollar Index Daily AnalysisThe dollar has been waffling around the 99-102 range for most of 2017. Right now there is a nice pivot area below acting as support and a pivot area above acting as resistance with the range being fair value. I can see two possible scenarios playing out. 1) We get a break above 102.00 and retest support to continuation of the uptrend 2) The upward trend line breaks and we have a selloff back toward 99 and possibly lower With US yields getting crushed I am more favorable to a bearish bias. I am playing all price action setups within the range.
TVC:DXYShort
by Jadecap
Gold Breaks Through and Closes Below the 8 Day Moving AverageGold dropped 8.1 points on the day to close below the 8 day moving average. As the dollar rose, gold sold off and finally cracked the 8 day ma. It also closed below the forward adjusted closing price line represented as the cyan line. There is now a high probability that gold will touch the 20 day moving average which is the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands. The Heikin Ashi chart shows that we are now in red territory, with 2 red candles in a row. If you look back a few days at the last green Heikin Ashi candle, you can see that it is a doji. Doji Heikin Ashi candles signify either a change or continuation of direction. Since that green doji has been followed by 2 red candles, it appears to have signaled a change of direction. The volume profiles are still showing confluence of the POCs from the intermediate and short terms. Whether or not we will see a resumption of the C wave and Gold moving higher in the near future is uncertain. For now though, it looks like there is more room to go on the downside.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Short term bullish scenario - Testing weekly supportEURUSD is testing the bottom of a weekly trading range The price held above the 50 days MA line last Friday and as long as it holds above this line there's a chance it'll bounce towards 1.07, 1.08 or even 1.09! The final target zone and the potential R/R are shown at the chart. #Notice - Weekly chart analysis support the opposite way right now (bearish!) so be careful with counter trend trading here. Read more about EURUSD in my weekly newsletter (link in signature below)
by themarketzone
Gold Gains Almost 8 Points Resuming It's Bullish TrendGold continued to move higher today, closing at 1243.1, a gain of 7.9 points for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index $DXY fell today which helped fuel Gold's rise. As I pointed out yesterday, the dollar had closed under the midpoint on the BollingerBand after having tried to break through that line of resistance and I thought that it would move lower today. It did and Gold was the beneficiary, continuing it bullish trend. What we want to see now is Gold to keep hugging the outer BollingerBand, rising steadily between the BollingerBands and the rising 6 day moving average. You may want to use the 8 day moving average as a good place to put your stops. You can have confidence in the bull trend as long as price stays close to the outer Bollinger Bands and above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. You can also use the Heikin-Ashi as a great way to monitor the trend. Look at the chart below. Following the colors is a great way to stay confident in your position. Green is Up and Red is Down. It doesn't get any easier than that. :-) My final comment here is that you can see that price is trading in the middle of a low volume area. Price may pause here and try to fill in that area before making it's next move.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
DXY. Reversal zone would confirm the Head & Shoulders patternAn eventual H&S Pattern may be forming at the US Dollar index. If price gets stuck in a 102-103 area, for me it would be a perfect place to open shorts, targeting 96 zone. Last CFTC report shows Retail traders have bought from the Large Specs while Commercials have increased their position. Normally, that happens when trend is exhausted and ready for a correction. The Open Interest also went down which means the amount of money placed on the market have been reduced. More details here: oi63.tinypic.com I´ve already shorted GBP and EUR last week and will increase my position on the closest support level. But as soon as we pass DXY 102 mark, I´ll pay a lot of attention on how the market behaves to decide if I keep on with longs and this idea is not valid or join shorts on USD.
TVC:DXYShort
by captain_smollett
1