Dollar_index
Gold Breaks Through and Closes Below the 8 Day Moving AverageGold dropped 8.1 points on the day to close below the 8 day moving average. As the dollar rose, gold sold off and finally cracked the 8 day ma. It also closed below the forward adjusted closing price line represented as the cyan line. There is now a high probability that gold will touch the 20 day moving average which is the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands.
The Heikin Ashi chart shows that we are now in red territory, with 2 red candles in a row. If you look back a few days at the last green Heikin Ashi candle, you can see that it is a doji. Doji Heikin Ashi candles signify either a change or continuation of direction. Since that green doji has been followed by 2 red candles, it appears to have signaled a change of direction.
The volume profiles are still showing confluence of the POCs from the intermediate and short terms.
Whether or not we will see a resumption of the C wave and Gold moving higher in the near future is uncertain. For now though, it looks like there is more room to go on the downside.
Short term bullish scenario - Testing weekly supportEURUSD is testing the bottom of a weekly trading range
The price held above the 50 days MA line last Friday and as long as it holds above this line there's a chance it'll bounce towards 1.07, 1.08 or even 1.09!
The final target zone and the potential R/R are shown at the chart.
#Notice - Weekly chart analysis support the opposite way right now (bearish!) so be careful with counter trend trading here. Read more about EURUSD in my weekly newsletter (link in signature below)
Gold Gains Almost 8 Points Resuming It's Bullish TrendGold continued to move higher today, closing at 1243.1, a gain of 7.9 points for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index $DXY fell today which helped fuel Gold's rise. As I pointed out yesterday, the dollar had closed under the midpoint on the BollingerBand after having tried to break through that line of resistance and I thought that it would move lower today. It did and Gold was the beneficiary, continuing it bullish trend.
What we want to see now is Gold to keep hugging the outer BollingerBand, rising steadily between the BollingerBands and the rising 6 day moving average. You may want to use the 8 day moving average as a good place to put your stops.
You can have confidence in the bull trend as long as price stays close to the outer Bollinger Bands and above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. You can also use the Heikin-Ashi as a great way to monitor the trend. Look at the chart below. Following the colors is a great way to stay confident in your position. Green is Up and Red is Down. It doesn't get any easier than that. :-)
My final comment here is that you can see that price is trading in the middle of a low volume area. Price may pause here and try to fill in that area before making it's next move.
DXY. Reversal zone would confirm the Head & Shoulders patternAn eventual H&S Pattern may be forming at the US Dollar index. If price gets stuck in a 102-103 area, for me it would be a perfect place to open shorts, targeting 96 zone.
Last CFTC report shows Retail traders have bought from the Large Specs while Commercials have increased their position. Normally, that happens when trend is exhausted and ready for a correction. The Open Interest also went down which means the amount of money placed on the market have been reduced.
More details here: oi63.tinypic.com
I´ve already shorted GBP and EUR last week and will increase my position on the closest support level. But as soon as we pass DXY 102 mark, I´ll pay a lot of attention on how the market behaves to decide if I keep on with longs and this idea is not valid or join shorts on USD.